If the deal passes I think the lib dems will adopt a policy of rejoining in the long term but seeking as close a relationship as possible whist the actual departure terms are discussed during the transition period. Whilst it is all rumors what is most concerning about the potential deal is the apparent objective to scrap adherence to EU employment and environmental laws leaving the Torys free to race to the bottom.
For me, this is the key. Johnson has embraced the very hardest of hard Brexits - one that will cause significant damage to both our manufacturing and services industries. My hope is that this is all part of a pre-Leave pitch to the ERG and BXP voters, and that it will be gently forgotten once we have departed. If it isn’t, the damage done will be very significant. It genuinely makes no sense to me economically, socially or politically.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
As always we look to one side only.
What are the EU options? What is the extension for?
So the EU can have: No extension 1 or 2 months to do essential legislation for negotiated deal if there is one. 31st Jan as requested under Benn act. For election? Not really time for anything else so a bit pointless, could lead to a good or bad result for EU. Longer than 31st Jan. To allow referendum or new negotiation with new government.
What is the final deadline? June 30th or 2020 or eternity?
The problem with Bermondsey is that whilst they have a sane MP, he stands for pretty much the opposite of what Corbyn stands for. Which means that their local campaign is "Vote Labour to STOP Labour". I can see a Labour vote collapse, and not just there. Its evidenced by the swathe of byelections and the polls this year - a double digit Labour fall almost everywhere.
What happens to these now former Labour voters will make the difference as to the result. If they all stay home and the Tory vote stays intact, Johnson wins big. If they go LD or Green or Brexit (depending on the area) AND the Tory vote also splinters because Brexit, then anything can happen in these seats.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty well, picking up Corbynista votes, while holding onto moderate Remain centrist. I think it quite possible to do so again. The difficulty for Labour is that this works where there is an incumbent, but not where there is a new candidate. It is a way of holding seats not gaining them.
Outside those Lab held seats a Lab vote is a wasted vote, the LDs are the challengers in the rest of England. Sure, I expect the LDs to rack up a lot of second places (not pointless, as the next parliament also may be shortlived), but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
I think this is mostly sound. Labour will do better than predicted, again, and LDs will rise. Tories might remain largest party but reduced still further, though that depends how vindictive Farage is.
That said I dont but that the LDs wont put Corbyn in no.10 through a 'you'll need to buy our support for each and every vote' deal.
If Tories cannot work with dup to govern the LDs will be the house on another election or even more weak minority government? I dont believe that
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
It's tricky for them, given the likelihood of an election if there is an extension without a deal. I've no doubt there's a powerful appetite among the electorate just to get this settled.
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
Mr. Nashe, depends how hard Remainers view things. War over, or war goes on?
If being pro-EU remains a critical political identity that's very helpful for the Lib Dems.
I'm with you here.
There's a pro-eu poster on this site who believes that, if we revoked, then (because it had all been such a hassle) the question of leaving the EU wouldn't come up again in his lifetime. It's such an extraordinary view, I don't know if I should laugh, or laugh hysterically.
But there are even more who think the same on the Brexit side. Somehow, all those people who turned out to march for the EU (or who cheered then on from their barstool or armchair) will shrug their shoulders and let it go.
I do belueve there will continue to be significant pressure to rejoin and why not? What will be lacking is the justified feeling of betrayal and failure of democracy that will exist if we fail to Leave. I am not sure how much difference that will make if any.
But also bear in mind that the Remain side keep telling us that much of the opposition to Leave is because of the threat of a No Deal. If Johnson does get a deal then again that will peel off some percentage from the irreconcilables
I agree on both points. The most valid current objection to a second referendum melts away once we have actually left.
Initially I think there will be relief all round if we leave with a deal. How it pans out after that will largely depend on how the UK economy does. If we appear to be becoming the "sick man of Europe" again then demand to rejoin will grow.
If we do want to rejoin we will then come to realise what a good deal we actually had before we jettisoned it. It would be ironic if Brexit ultimately led to full-on membership and joining the Euro.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
As always we look to one side only.
What are the EU options? What is the extension for?
So the EU can have: No extension 1 or 2 months to do essential legislation for negotiated deal if there is one. 31st Jan as requested under Benn act. For election? Not really time for anything else so a bit pointless, could lead to a good or bad result for EU. Longer than 31st Jan. To allow referendum or new negotiation with new government.
What is the final deadline? June 30th or 2020 or eternity?
An important question, but i was looking at one side because it's the behaviour of that side critical to accepting any deal, and while the EUs willingness to extend and how long for are very important, so long as there is prospect of extension some will grasp it no matter what, particularly if they dont see a route to what they want- in this case referring to deal waverers who dont want to help johnson or remain, that is who want something impossible.
The DUP still oppose the backstop but would accept some single market alignment in Northern Ireland with the consent of NI representatives and the NI people
How does this fit in with Brexit on 31st October? According to this plan, the DUP will vote for a bill, on the condition that Brexit can only be enacted following the result of a referendum in NI. Meaning Boris will still have to ask for an extension.
The consent of NI wouldn't be needed until the end of the transition period. But in that case I suppose the need for consent would have to written into the agreement.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
Mr. Nashe, depends how hard Remainers view things. War over, or war goes on?
If being pro-EU remains a critical political identity that's very helpful for the Lib Dems.
I'm with you here.
There's a pro-eu poster on this site who believes that, if we revoked, then (because it had all been such a hassle) the question of leaving the EU wouldn't come up again in his lifetime. It's such an extraordinary view, I don't know if I should laugh, or laugh hysterically.
But there are even more who think the same on the Brexit side. Somehow, all those people who turned out to march for the EU (or who cheered then on from their barstool or armchair) will shrug their shoulders and let it go.
I do belueve there will continue to be significant pressure to rejoin and why not? What will be lacking is the justified feeling of betrayal and failure of democracy that will exist if we fail to Leave. I am not sure how much difference that will make if any.
But also bear in mind that the Remain side keep telling us that much of the opposition to Leave is because of the threat of a No Deal. If Johnson does get a deal then again that will peel off some percentage from the irreconcilables
I agree on both points. The most valid current objection to a second referendum melts away once we have actually left.
Initially I think there will be relief all round if we leave with a deal. How it pans out after that will largely depend on how the UK economy does. If we appear to be becoming the "sick man of Europe" again then demand to rejoin will grow.
If we do want to rejoin we will then come to realise what a good deal we actually had before we jettisoned it. It would be ironic if Brexit ultimately led to full-on membership and joining the Euro.
But a lot of those who are remainers wont sign up to a fully fledged monetary union even on a rejoin so the LDs will find that a very hard sell
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
It's tricky for them, given the likelihood of an election if there is an extension without a deal. I've no doubt there's a powerful appetite among the electorate just to get this settled.
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
Which was an argument for the May deal to pass too. Didnt work. Further chaos today better than potential chaos later.
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
Apart from France and New Zealand the UK has one of the highest birthrates in the West so unlikely we will emulate Japan on that front even if we sought to on others
I wouldn't wish to. Sushi brings me out in a rash.
Is that an expression of distaste, or a genuine physiological response ?
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
The two largest parties have used that argument as long as I’ve lived, and it’s worn more than a little thin.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
As always we look to one side only.
What are the EU options? What is the extension for?
So the EU can have: No extension 1 or 2 months to do essential legislation for negotiated deal if there is one. 31st Jan as requested under Benn act. For election? Not really time for anything else so a bit pointless, could lead to a good or bad result for EU. Longer than 31st Jan. To allow referendum or new negotiation with new government.
What is the final deadline? June 30th or 2020 or eternity?
Well it should be undefined. Brexit should take place 2 months after all relevant parties have agreed on what type of Brexit. If the UK government and parliament really want to leave with no deal, then they should anounce it categorically with two months notice. These deadlines and extensions are pointless, cause lots and lots of stress, and are a distraction to getting the job done.
FWIW I think the EU will approve any extension if asked for. There will be noises and complaints but for example Macron will not be the one who forced a nodeal brexit. Then with each extension the EU will suggest in even stronger terms what they hope to see from the British government, such as GE and/or referendum. The British government will react to the EU wishes by ignoring them.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
Quite. Its unpalatable but it's where we are, and the public will play that game. We already know how people can justify that binary thinking by focusing on the local candidate. Oh I hate bojo/jezza, but Sir Reginald Bottomley-Postlethwaite/Ramsey McWorkingClass is great.
McDonnell's statement that he and Corbyn will resign if we do not vote for them at the coming GE is a very attractive offer. He really knows how to sell a proposition doesn't he?
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
It's tricky for them, given the likelihood of an election if there is an extension without a deal. I've no doubt there's a powerful appetite among the electorate just to get this settled.
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
Which was an argument for the May deal to pass too. Didnt work. Further chaos today better than potential chaos later.
I think the situation now is quite different. May's deal was a mile away from ever being passed, whereas the expectation now is that a vote on a deal would be close. And now everyone expects an election soon, which wasn't the case then.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
The two largest parties have used that argument as long as I’ve lived, and it’s worn more than a little thin.
Their result at the last election suggests otherwise, and that it works just fine.
I wish it didnt, and maybe the LDs finally break back through this time, but the grip of the big two, though shakier than theyd like given the euros, remains strong. Theres too much at stake to split the vote and let in a no deal tory/marxist corbynite.
They've used it as long as you've lived because it works .
On topic, George Conway has a good article on Trump’s mental state:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/george-conway-trump-unfit-office/599128/ Trump’s lawyers in the Russia investigation clearly agreed: As Bob Woodward recounts at length in his book Fear, members of Trump’s criminal-defense team fought both Trump and Mueller tooth and nail to keep Trump from being interviewed by the Office of Special Counsel. A practice testimonial session ended with Trump spouting wild, baseless assertions in a rage. Woodward quotes Trump’s outside counsel John Dowd as saying that Trump “just made something up” in response to one question. “That’s his nature.” Woodward also recounts Dowd’s thinking when he argued to Trump that the president was “not really capable” of answering Mueller’s questions face to face. Dowd had “to dress it up as much as possible, to say, it’s not your fault … He could not say what he knew was true: ‘You’re a fucking liar.’ That was the problem.” (Dowd disputes this account.) Which raises the question: If Trump can’t tell the truth even when it counts most, with legal jeopardy on the line and lawyers there to help prepare him, is he able to apprehend the truth at all?
Behavior like this is unusual, a point that journalists across the political spectrum have made. “This is not normal,” Megan McArdle wrote in late August. “And I don’t mean that as in, ‘Trump is violating the shibboleths of the Washington establishment.’ I mean that as in, ‘This is not normal for a functioning adult.’” James Fallows observed, also in August, that Trump is having “episodes of what would be called outright lunacy, if they occurred in any other setting,” and that if he “were in virtually any other position of responsibility, action would already be under way to remove him from that role.”...
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
It wasn't self-defeating for the Lib Dems - who, Labour supporters should remember are a rival party and not an arms-length subsidiary
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
Quite. Its unpalatable but it's where we are, and the public will play that game. We already know how people can justify that binary thinking by focusing on the local candidate. Oh I hate bojo/jezza, but Sir Reginald Bottomley-Postlethwaite/Ramsey McWorkingClass is great.
And I reckon this is why we see different polling in a campaign compared to im between times. Either the questionairre respondent is normal and does not think about their own constitiency when there is no GE planned, or the respondent takes an interest in politics and so is only vaguely representatiove of the electorate.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
It's tricky for them, given the likelihood of an election if there is an extension without a deal. I've no doubt there's a powerful appetite among the electorate just to get this settled.
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
Which was an argument for the May deal to pass too. Didnt work. Further chaos today better than potential chaos later.
I think the situation now is quite different. May's deal was a mile away from ever being passed, whereas the expectation now is that a vote on a deal would be close. And now everyone expects an election soon, which wasn't the case then.
To be sure, and I think fewer waverers are anxious for extension than previously. But the numbers are so tight that those people are crucial, and with the EU seemingly willing to accept any request for extension? It's easier.
And the easiest path has explained many of the worst decisions and pointless prevarications in this mess.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
You mean brexit chaos under the Conservatives, or strong and stable under the Lab/SNP coalition?
The problem with Bermondsey is that whilst they have a sane MP, he stands for pretty much the opposite of what Corbyn stands for. Which means that their local campaign is "Vote Labour to STOP Labour". I can see a Labour vote collapse, and not just there. Its evidenced by the swathe of byelections and the polls this year - a double digit Labour fall almost everywhere.
What happens to these now former Labour voters will make the difference as to the result. If they all stay home and the Tory vote stays intact, Johnson wins big. If they go LD or Green or Brexit (depending on the area) AND the Tory vote also splinters because Brexit, then anything can happen in these seats.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty well, picking up Corbynista votes, while holding onto moderate Remain centrist. I think it quite possible to do so again. The difficulty for Labour is that this works where there is an incumbent, but not where there is a new candidate. It is a way of holding seats not gaining them.
Outside those Lab held seats a Lab vote is a wasted vote, the LDs are the challengers in the rest of England. Sure, I expect the LDs to rack up a lot of second places (not pointless, as the next parliament also may be shortlived), but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
I think a good deal depends on how self-centred the LibDem push is. If they throw resources at seats like Uxbridge where they have zero chance and Labour has a shot, they may push up their vote share but they'll also deliver a big Tory majority; even more if they assault seats like Portsmouth S where there's a Remainer Labour MP and the LibDems are third. I know a good many Labour voters in the South who are willing to lend the LibDems votes unless they think the main LibDem project is building up to be a replacement for Labour - in which case they really won't.
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (<5% last time) and the local Tories are deeply split and have chosen an unknown councillors from another area as their candidate.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
The two largest parties have used that argument as long as I’ve lived, and it’s worn more than a little thin.
Their result at the last election suggests otherwise, and that it works just fine.
I wish it didnt, and maybe the LDs finally break back through this time, but the grip of the big two, though shakier than theyd like given the euros, remains strong. Theres too much at stake to split the vote and let in a no deal tory/marxist corbynite
I was speaking for myself. I’ve had enough of the two, and being told I have to choose the marginally less shit alternative.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
It's tricky for them, given the likelihood of an election if there is an extension without a deal. I've no doubt there's a powerful appetite among the electorate just to get this settled.
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
Which was an argument for the May deal to pass too. Didnt work. Further chaos today better than potential chaos later.
I think the situation now is quite different. May's deal was a mile away from ever being passed, whereas the expectation now is that a vote on a deal would be close. And now everyone expects an election soon, which wasn't the case then.
To be sure, and I think fewer waverers are anxious for extension than previously. But the numbers are so tight that those people are crucial, and with the EU seemingly willing to accept any request for extension? It's easier.
And the easiest path has explained many of the worst decisions and pointless prevarications in this mess.
I have I think reached the point where I am thinking for God's sake pass this deal and we can move on.
The alternative is months and months of who knows what trouble, chaos and uncertainty and potentially a massive constitutional crisis.
Mr. Nashe, depends how hard Remainers view things. War over, or war goes on?
If being pro-EU remains a critical political identity that's very helpful for the Lib Dems.
I'm with you here.
There's a pro-eu poster on this site who believes that, if we revoked, then (because it had all been such a hassle) the question of leaving the EU wouldn't come up again in his lifetime. It's such an extraordinary view, I don't know if I should laugh, or laugh hysterically.
But there are even more who think the same on the Brexit side. Somehow, all those people who turned out to march for the EU (or who cheered then on from their barstool or armchair) will shrug their shoulders and let it go.
I do belueve there will continue to be significant pressure to rejoin and why not? What will be lacking is the justified feeling of betrayal and failure of democracy that will exist if we fail to Leave. I am not sure how much difference that will make if any.
But also bear in mind that the Remain side keep telling us that much of the opposition to Leave is because of the threat of a No Deal. If Johnson does get a deal then again that will peel off some percentage from the irreconcilables
I agree on both points. The most valid current objection to a second referendum melts away once we have actually left.
Initially I think there will be relief all round if we leave with a deal. How it pans out after that will largely depend on how the UK economy does. If we appear to be becoming the "sick man of Europe" again then demand to rejoin will grow.
If we do want to rejoin we will then come to realise what a good deal we actually had before we jettisoned it. It would be ironic if Brexit ultimately led to full-on membership and joining the Euro.
But a lot of those who are remainers wont sign up to a fully fledged monetary union even on a rejoin so the LDs will find that a very hard sell
Brexiteers are on the wrong side of the demographic divide. Many of our economic woes will now be laid at the door of Brexit rightly or wrongly, in exactly the same way that the EU was blamed for pretty much everything previously.
Ten years from now I can see us rejoining after Brexit has been successfully portrayed as the folly of the baby-boomers.
The problem with Bermondsey is that whilst they have a sane MP, he stands for pretty much the opposite of what Corbyn stands for. Which means that their local campaign is "Vote Labour to STOP Labour". I can see a Labour vote collapse, and not just there. Its evidenced by the swathe of byelections and the polls this year - a double digit Labour fall almost everywhere.
What happens to these now former Labour voters will make the difference as to the result. If they all stay home and the Tory vote stays intact, Johnson wins big. If they go LD or Green or Brexit (depending on the area) AND the Tory vote also splinters because Brexit, then anything can happen in these seats.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty
I think a good deal depends on how self-centred the LibDem push is. If they throw resources at seats like Uxbridge where they have zero chance and Labour has a shot, they may push up their vote share but they'll also deliver a big Tory majority; even more if they assault seats like
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (
I know of the Tory candidate in Broxtowe as hes down here in Wiltshire. Lost out to be the Tory PCC candidate I recall from local press . An interesting choice for a key seat .
The DUP still oppose the backstop but would accept some single market alignment in Northern Ireland with the consent of NI representatives and the NI people
How does this fit in with Brexit on 31st October? According to this plan, the DUP will vote for a bill, on the condition that Brexit can only be enacted following the result of a referendum in NI. Meaning Boris will still have to ask for an extension.
The DUP attached no referendum condition given they are the largest party in Northern Ireland and thus representatives of the Northern Ireland people in their view
Mr. Nashe, depends how hard Remainers view things. War over, or war goes on?
If being pro-EU remains a critical political identity that's very helpful for the Lib Dems.
I'm with you here.
There's a pro-eu poster on this site who believes that, if we revoked, then (because it had all been such a hassle) the question of leaving the EU wouldn't come up again in his lifetime. It's such an extraordinary view, I don't know if I should laugh, or laugh hysterically.
But there are even more who think the same on the Brexit side. Somehow, all those people who turned out to march for the EU (or who cheered then on from their barstool or armchair) will shrug their shoulders and let it go.
I do belueve there will continue to be significant pressure to rejoin and why not? What will be lacking is the justified feeling of betrayal and failure of democracy that will exist if we fail to Leave. I am not sure how much difference that will make if any.
But also bear in mind that the Remain side keep telling us that much of the opposition to Leave is because of the threat of a No Deal. If Johnson does get a deal then again that will peel off some percentage from the irreconcilables
I agree on both points. The most valid current objection to a second referendum melts away once we have actually left.
Initially I think there will be relief all round if we leave with a deal. How it pans out after that will largely depend on how the UK economy does. If we appear to be becoming the "sick man of Europe" again then demand to rejoin will grow.
If we do want to rejoin we will then come to realise what a good deal we actually had before we jettisoned it. It would be ironic if Brexit ultimately led to full-on membership and joining the Euro.
But a lot of those who are remainers wont sign up to a fully fledged monetary union even on a rejoin so the LDs will find that a very hard sell
Brexiteers are on the wrong side of the demographic divide. Many of our economic woes will now be laid at the door of Brexit rightly or wrongly, in exactly the same way that the EU was blamed for pretty much everything previously.
Ten years from now I can see us rejoining after Brexit has been successfully portrayed as the folly of the baby-boomers.
Yep.
If the EU can sort out the disaster that is the deflation associated with the euro then we will rejoin, perhaps in some outer rim of countries who are not too keen on out and out integration.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
It wasn't self-defeating for the Lib Dems - who, Labour supporters should remember are a rival party and not an arms-length subsidiary
Yes, the LDs aim is to replace Labour as the main party of the centre left.
A Boris premiership with the LDs in second place is of course far better for the LDs than a Corbyn Premiership with the LDs in third place
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
That's largely down to Labour's choice of leader in each case, Foot and Corbyn. TAs they ay, those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it .
You can't blame moderate ex-Labour members like myself voting Lib Dem when the Corbynistas have spent the last few years telling us to sod off.
We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
If the deal passes I think the lib dems will adopt a policy of rejoining in the long term but seeking as close a relationship as possible whist the actual departure terms are discussed during the transition period.
Yes.
I very, very strongly suspect that their policy will be EFTA+CU if they get into Government (and potentially as a condition of any coalition), as a stepping stone to a medium-term aim of rejoining the EU.
Yes. The revoke position is positioning more than anything. Says to disappointed remainers “we were the only ones who did anything to try and stop this” (in England anyway). For all the faux outrage about revoke being an “anti democratic” position, for us to win a majority prior to exit would take a democratic earthquake at least on the scale of 2016. Even as a glass half full LD member, I have to concede there is an outside possibility that we won’t win a majority at the next election and it’s quite possible that has occurred to actual active members who, unlike me, do more than just chuck in a tenner every month as well.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
Mr. Nashe, depends how hard Remainers view things. War over, or war goes on?
If being pro-EU remains a critical political identity that's very helpful for the Lib Dems.
I'm with you here.
There's a pro-eu poster on this site who believes that, if we revoked, then (because it had all been such a hassle) the question of leaving the EU wouldn't come up again in his lifetime. It's such an extraordinary view, I don't know if I should laugh, or laugh hysterically.
But there are even more who think the same on the Brexit side. Somehow, all those people who turned out to march for the EU (or who cheered then on from their barstool or armchair) will shrug their shoulders and let it go.
I do belueve there will continue to be significant pressure to rejoin and why not? What will be lacking is the justified feeling of betrayal and failure of democracy that will exist if we fail to Leave. I am not sure how much difference that will make if any.
But also bear in mind that the Remain side keep telling us that much of the opposition to Leave is because of the threat of a No Deal. If Johnson does get a deal then again that will peel off some percentage from the irreconcilables
I agree on both points. The most valid current objection to a second referendum melts away once we have actually left.
Initially I think there will be relief all round if we leave with a deal. How it pans out after that will largely depend on how the UK economy does. If we appear to be becoming the "sick man of Europe" again then demand to rejoin will grow.
If we do want to rejoin we will then come to realise what a good deal we actually had before we jettisoned it. It would be ironic if Brexit ultimately led to full-on membership and joining the Euro.
But a lot of those who are remainers wont sign up to a fully fledged monetary union even on a rejoin so the LDs will find that a very hard sell
Brexiteers are on the wrong side of the demographic divide. Many of our economic woes will now be laid at the door of Brexit rightly or wrongly, in exactly the same way that the EU was blamed for pretty much everything previously.
Ten years from now I can see us rejoining after Brexit has been successfully portrayed as the folly of the baby-boomers.
What’s the mechanism for taking us back in, more refs? Or manifesto commitments? Is it a big splash or gently ease back in, starting with the CU?
On topic, George Conway has a good article on Trump’s mental state:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/george-conway-trump-unfit-office/599128/ Trump’s lawyers in the Russia investigation clearly agreed: As Bob Woodward recounts at length in his book Fear, members of Trump’s criminal-defense team fought both Trump and Mueller tooth and nail to keep Trump from being interviewed by the Office of Special Counsel. A practice testimonial session ended with Trump spouting wild, baseless assertions in a rage. Woodward quotes Trump’s outside counsel John Dowd as saying that Trump “just made something up” in response to one question. “That’s his nature.” Woodward also recounts Dowd’s thinking when he argued to Trump that the president was “not really capable” of answering Mueller’s questions face to face. Dowd had “to dress it up as much as possible, to say, it’s not your fault … He could not say what he knew was true: ‘You’re a fucking liar.’ That was the problem.” (Dowd disputes this account.) Which raises the question: If Trump can’t tell the truth even when it counts most, with legal jeopardy on the line and lawyers there to help prepare him, is he able to apprehend the truth at all?
Behavior like this is unusual, a point that journalists across the political spectrum have made. “This is not normal,” Megan McArdle wrote in late August. “And I don’t mean that as in, ‘Trump is violating the shibboleths of the Washington establishment.’ I mean that as in, ‘This is not normal for a functioning adult.’” James Fallows observed, also in August, that Trump is having “episodes of what would be called outright lunacy, if they occurred in any other setting,” and that if he “were in virtually any other position of responsibility, action would already be under way to remove him from that role.”...
The point of which is to show that it’s pretty commonly accepted that Trump is, in the layperson’s term, nuts. And that’s before the latest rumours of Sudafed dependency...
I don’t think it entirely unlikely that Trump be removed via the 25th, as opposed to be impeachment. Either way, that would only happen were sufficient Republican senators to decide getting rid of him had become a political necessity; at that point it becomes a tactical calculation. And I can’t see the Democrats blocking removal via the 25th.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
It's tricky for them, given the likelihood of an election if there is an extension without a deal. I've no doubt there's a powerful appetite among the electorate just to get this settled.
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
Which was an argument for the May deal to pass too. Didnt work. Further chaos today better than potential chaos later.
I think the situation now is quite different. May's deal was a mile away from ever being passed, whereas the expectation now is that a vote on a deal would be close. And now everyone expects an election soon, which wasn't the case then.
To be sure, and I think fewer waverers are anxious for extension than previously. But the numbers are so tight that those people are crucial, and with the EU seemingly willing to accept any request for extension? It's easier.
And the easiest path has explained many of the worst decisions and pointless prevarications in this mess.
I have I think reached the point where I am thinking for God's sake pass this deal and we can move on.
The alternative is months and months of who knows what trouble, chaos and uncertainty and potentially a massive constitutional crisis.
Thing is you've reached that point, but our mps do not appear to. For better and worse they are made of sterner stuff than you or I!
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
It's what May rejected 18 months ago, the WA with a customs border in the Irish sea. It is not evidence of magnificent negotiating.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
Well change your leader or leave the pitch clear, do you just want all the other parties to leave it to ‘the big boys’ to slug it out?
FPTP is a fact political parties need to remember.
That Corbyn is not an acceptable alternative to unacceptable Johnson is a fact too.
For the foreseeable future we will still need to pick one or the other.
The two largest parties have used that argument as long as I’ve lived, and it’s worn more than a little thin.
Their result at the last election suggests otherwise, and that it works just fine.
I wish it didnt, and maybe the LDs finally break back through this time, but the grip of the big two, though shakier than theyd like given the euros, remains strong. Theres too much at stake to split the vote and let in a no deal tory/marxist corbynite
I was speaking for myself. I’ve had enough of the two, and being told I have to choose the marginally less shit alternative.
And this time round, they’ve both reached historically unprecedented levels of shitness.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
That's largely down to Labour's choice of leader in each case, Foot and Corbyn. TAs they ay, those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it .
You can't blame moderate ex-Labour members like myself voting Lib Dem when the Corbynistas have spent the last few years telling us to sod off.
We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories are duty-bound to vote Labour. If Labour don't want to appeal to centre-left voters then that's their choice but it's no use moaning that they then vote for somebody else and "let the Tories in".
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
It's what May rejected 18 months ago, the WA with a customs border in the Irish sea. It is not evidence of magnificent negotiating.
If he gets the DUP and ERG to swallow it it would be magnificent negotiating, just not with the EU.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
The problem with Bermondsey is that whilst they have a sane MP, he stands for pretty much the opposite of what Corbyn stands for. Which means that their local campaign is "Vote Labour to STOP Labour". I can see a Labour vote collapse, and not just there. Its evidenced by the swathe of byelections and the polls this year - a double digit Labour fall almost everywhere.
What happens to these now former Labour voters will make the difference as to the result. If they all stay home and the Tory vote stays intact, Johnson wins big. If they go LD or Green or Brexit (depending on the area) AND the Tory vote also splinters because Brexit, then anything can happen in these seats.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
I think a good deal depends on how self-centred the LibDem push is. If they throw resources at seats like Uxbridge where they have zero chance and Labour has a shot, they may push up their vote share but they'll also deliver a big Tory majority; even more if they assault seats like Portsmouth S where there's a Remainer Labour MP and the LibDems are third. I know a good many Labour voters in the South who are willing to lend the LibDems votes unless they think the main LibDem project is building up to be a replacement for Labour - in which case they really won't.
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (
LDs are not obliged to support Labour! I expect candidates in all seats apart from a few Independents/Greens/PC. Of course there will be targeting and West London and Home Counties will be amongst them. Surely you agree a Lab vote in Winchester or Romsey is a wasted vote that risks a Tory hold.
Rushcliffe seems the main LD target near Nottingham.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
That's largely down to Labour's choice of leader in each case, Foot and Corbyn. TAs they ay, those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it .
You can't blame moderate ex-Labour members like myself voting Lib Dem when the Corbynistas have spent the last few years telling us to sod off.
We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories are duty-bound to vote Labour. If Labour don't want to appeal to centre-left voters then that's their choice but it's no use moaning that they then vote for somebody else and "let the Tories in".
Indeed - if people who previously voted Labour decide not to that’s Labour’s fault, no-one else’s
One of the good things about a Brexit swing from Labour to the Lib Dems is that for many years these voters would have been 'donkey in a red rosette' voters. Them decoupling from Labour and voting with another party on an issue of policy would be a good thing, holding out the potential of future flipping, and thus a healthier democracy in the long term.
Who knows? it's far from clear to me how we are leaving yet or if, indeed, we are actually leaving at all.
My guess would be that EFTA will prove an attractive immediate option and I could see a post-Corbyn Labour party having a manifesto commitment to do that and winning a GE in a few years time. Rejoining would definitely need a referendum IMO.
(apologies - messed up block quotes. Surely there has to be an easier system!!)
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
That's largely down to Labour's choice of leader in each case, Foot and Corbyn. TAs they ay, those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it .
You can't blame moderate ex-Labour members like myself voting Lib Dem when the Corbynistas have spent the last few years telling us to sod off.
We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories are duty-bound to vote Labour. If Labour don't want to appeal to centre-left voters then that's their choice but it's no use moaning that they then vote for somebody else and "let the Tories in".
The frustration is understandable but of course you are correct. If all non Tories are only supposed to care about beating the Tories and that is that then wed only have a single opposition to begin with. It isn't a betrayal to vote ld not labour anymore than to vote BXP not con.
In both cases, in many areas, it could unintentionally assist an poor outcome though. Which is why I expect most not to risk it.
But people should feel more comfortable voting for their first preference no matter what .
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
That's largely down to Labour's choice of leader in each case, Foot and Corbyn. TAs they ay, those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it .
You can't blame moderate ex-Labour members like myself voting Lib Dem when the Corbynistas have spent the last few years telling us to sod off.
We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
As a moderate ex Labour member who is as appalled by Corbyn as he is by Johnson how would you recommend I vote then? A Labour member recommended to me after my attempted defence of Tony Blair that I “f*** off and join the Liberal Democrats”. Has that position changed?
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
That's largely down to Labour's choice of leader in each case, Foot and Corbyn. TAs they ay, those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it .
You can't blame moderate ex-Labour members like myself voting Lib Dem when the Corbynistas have spent the last few years telling us to sod off.
We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
As a moderate ex Labour member who is as appalled by Corbyn as he is by Johnson how would you recommend I vote then? A Labour member recommended to me after my attempted defence of Tony Blair that I “f*** off and join the Liberal Democrats”. Has that position changed?
I'm sure it hasn't- said person probably still wants you joining the LDs, they just expect you to vote labour regardless.
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
I’m not sure that they quite share the WWII nostalgia of the Brexiteers?
It may genuinely be a thing in certain circles, but I rarely, if ever, hear "WWII nostalgia" in real life. It's the same with the British Empire fixation that all Leavers are supposed to have. It just doesn't manifest itself among the people I know. I don't even see it in random folk out in public. I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Certainly not heard it up here much , lots in media though and it does seem to appeal to a certain stereotype. Many still miss the empire.
One of the good things about a Brexit swing from Labour to the Lib Dems is that for many years these voters would have been 'donkey in a red rosette' voters. Them decoupling from Labour and voting with another party on an issue of policy would be a good thing, holding out the potential of future flipping, and thus a healthier democracy in the long term.
The unquestioned primacy of the two main parties has gone for so long unchallenged that they have become caricatures of themselves. The only tactical voting I’d ever do in future (and the first would mean me resigning my membership) would be between Green and Lib Dem. My vote in my constituency will, I’m told, be “wasted” but we need a shake up like happened in Scotland, and if everyone felt that way nothing would ever change.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
If Farage can stay within a certain percentage of the Lib Dems we could yet avoid disaster.
Nigel Farage the hero of liberal democracy, who'd have thought it...
We can't avoid disaster because if Johnson loses Corbyn, who is Johnson on speed, gets in.
Avoiding disaster requires either a genuine political earthquake or Corbyn to Leave post before the election.
Given neither the Liberal Democrats or Farage are likely to put Corbyn in Number 10 that is not really true.
Corbyn needs either a Labour majority or a Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green majority to become PM
If Johnson loses Corbyn becomes PM.
Although I am amazed anyone can think of Johnson's record as anything but a disaster, so in a sense we haven't avoided it.
Not necessarily.
If Johnson loses the Tory majority even with the DUP he could still stay PM if he leads the largest party and the Tories and DUP (and any Brexit Party MPs) have more seats combined than Labour, the SNP, Plaid and the Greens combined as if the LDs hold the balance of power they will refuse to make Corbyn PM either.
It is thus possible LD MPs could keep Boris as PM by default
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
I’m not sure that they quite share the WWII nostalgia of the Brexiteers?
It may genuinely be a thing in certain circles, but I rarely, if ever, hear "WWII nostalgia" in real life. It's the same with the British Empire fixation that all Leavers are supposed to have. It just doesn't manifest itself among the people I know. I don't even see it in random folk out in public. I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Certainly not heard it up here much , lots in media though and it does seem to appeal to a certain stereotype. Many still miss the empire.
Sells newspapers and books as it’s an exiting goodie v baddie story which has the benefit on these shores that on the Brits were unquestionably on the side of the good guys. Tales of the American Revolution do well in the States, but not here, for understandable reasons.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
The Benn Act requires MPs approve the deal to avoid the extension letter.
Psychologically I think so many mps have already accepted the inevitability of extension by passing the Benn Act that a few crucial waverers wont back a deal if it is brought before them. They already know they have more time to put off the hard choice and are mentally half committed to it already.
It's tricky for them, given the likelihood of an election if there is an extension without a deal. I've no doubt there's a powerful appetite among the electorate just to get this settled.
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
Which was an argument for the May deal to pass too. Didnt work. Further chaos today better than potential chaos later.
I think the situation now is quite different. May's deal was a mile away from ever being passed, whereas the expectation now is that a vote on a deal would be close. And now everyone expects an election soon, which wasn't the case then.
Why they so desperate to sign up to worse deal than May's,
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
The problem with Bermondsey is that whilst they have a sane MP, he stands for pretty much the opposite of what Corbyn stands for. Which means that their local campaign is "Vote Labour to STOP Labour". I can see a Labour vote collapse, and not just there. Its evidenced by the swathe of byelections and the polls this year - a double digit Labour fall almost everywhere.
What happens to these now former Labour voters will make the difference as to the result. If they all stay home and the Tory vote stays intact, Johnson wins big. If they go LD or Green or Brexit (depending on the area) AND the Tory vote also splinters because Brexit, then anything can happen in these seats.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty well, picking up Corbynista votes, while holding onto moderate Remain centrist. I think it quite possible to do so again. The difficulty for Labour is that this works where there is an incumbent, but not where there is a new candidate. It is a way of holding seats not gaining them.
Outside those Lab held seats a Lab vote is a wasted vote, the LDs are the challengers in the rest of England. Sure, I expect the LDs to rack up a lot of second places (not pointless, as the next parliament also may be shortlived), but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
I think a good deal depends on how self-centred the LibDem push is. If they throw resources at seats like Uxbridge where they have zero chance and Labour has a shot, they may push up their vote share but they'll also deliver a big Tory majority; even more if they assault seats like Portsmouth S where there's a Remainer Labour MP and the LibDems are third. I know a good many Labour voters in the South who are willing to lend the LibDems votes unless they think the main LibDem project is building up to be a replacement for Labour - in which case they really won't.
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (
How many "good Labour voters in the South" do you actually know?
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
I’m not sure that they quite share the WWII nostalgia of the Brexiteers?
It may genuinely be a thing in certain circles, but I rarely, if ever, hear "WWII nostalgia" in real life. It's the same with the British Empire fixation that all Leavers are supposed to have. It just doesn't manifest itself among the people I know. I don't even see it in random folk out in public. I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Certainly not heard it up here much , lots in media though and it does seem to appeal to a certain stereotype. Many still miss the empire.
I think it's two different things. WW2 era has an enduring appeal (look at the huge 'vintage' community and industry), and will do long after it has passed from living memory, because it was such an iconic era, and also such a time of moral certainty. You were fighting the Nazis. How much more 'in the right' can you get?
Wanting the Empire back is something that I genuinely feel is more of a Remainer accusation based on their own way of looking at the world. They are the sort of people who adore great power politics for its own sake, and feel that the EU has replaced the Empire and gives us a 'seat at the top table' which is of intrinsic value whether it actually helps British people or not.
The problem with Bermondsey is that whilst they have a sane MP, he stands for pretty much the opposite of what Corbyn stands for. Which means that their local campaign is "Vote Labour to STOP Labour". I can see a Labour vote collapse, and not just there. Its evidenced by the swathe of byelections and the polls this year - a double digit Labour fall almost everywhere.
What happens to these now former Labour voters will make the difference as to the result. If they all stay home and the Tory vote stays intact, Johnson wins big. If they go LD or Green or Brexit (depending on the area) AND the Tory vote also splinters because Brexit, then anything can happen in these seats.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty well, picking up Corbynista votes, while holding onto moderate Remain centrist. I think it quite possible to do so again. The difficulty for Labour is that this works where there is an incumbent, but not where there is a new candidate. It is a way of holding seats not gaining them.
Outside those Lab held seats a Lab vote is a wasted vote, the LDs are the challengers in the rest of England. Sure, I expect the LDs to rack up a lot of second places (not pointless, as the next parliament also may be shortlived), but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
I think a go
How many "good Labour voters in the South" do you actually know?
The more telling comment is the LD push being 'self-centred'. They are letting the team down, despite not being in a team or even an alliance!
Self defeating might make more sense, if one takes the view that a focus on eclipsing Labour leads to a lot of wasted votes and a Tory win, but that's not the same thing - they are supposed to be self centred.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty well, picking up Corbynista votes, while holding onto moderate Remain centrist. I think it quite possible to do so again. The difficulty for Labour is that this works where there is an incumbent, but not where there is a new candidate. It is a way of holding seats not gaining them.
Outside those Lab held seats a Lab vote is a wasted vote, the LDs are the challengers in the rest of England. Sure, I expect the LDs to rack up a lot of second places (not pointless, as the next parliament also may be shortlived), but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
I think a good deal depends on how self-centred the LibDem push is. If they throw resources at seats like Uxbridge where they have zero chance and Labour has a shot, they may push up their vote share but they'll also deliver a big Tory majority; even more if they assault seats like Portsmouth S where there's a Remainer Labour MP and the LibDems are third. I know a good many Labour voters in the South who are willing to lend the LibDems votes unless they think the main LibDem project is building up to be a replacement for Labour - in which case they really won't.
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (
Of course the Lib Dems' project is to replace Labour as the main left-of-Centre Party (or, to win that place back if you like). That's what non-single-issue political parties are for:to become an established party of government.
And to do that they do need to put resources into seats which might not be winnable this time (though who knows in a realigning election), but may be in the future. FWIW, I think Uxbridge is a reasonable stretch target for them.
A lot of people seem to forget or ignore that the Lib Dems are currently very strong in London. The recent YouGov poll again had them near enough neck-and-neck for the lead in the capital. That has to imply considerable support beyond Twickenham and Richmond Park
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
Join me. Look at the win win proposal fudge, ask yourself why you are sure that doesn’t result in a deal this week. The EU are sending Boris into the commons flanked by DUP and ERG either side and triumphant trumpets sounding.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
I’m not sure that they quite share the WWII nostalgia of the Brexiteers?
It may genuinely be a thing in certain circles, but I rarely, if ever, hear "WWII nostalgia" in real life. It's the same with the British Empire fixation that all Leavers are supposed to have. It just doesn't manifest itself among the people I know. I don't even see it in random folk out in public. I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Certainly not heard it up here much , lots in media though and it does seem to appeal to a certain stereotype. Many still miss the empire.
... and most of those were born long after it had effectively ended.
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
I’m not sure that they quite share the WWII nostalgia of the Brexiteers?
It may genuinely be a thing in certain circles, but I rarely, if ever, hear "WWII nostalgia" in real life. It's the same with the British Empire fixation that all Leavers are supposed to have. It just doesn't manifest itself among the people I know. I don't even see it in random folk out in public. I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Certainly not heard it up here much , lots in media though and it does seem to appeal to a certain stereotype. Many still miss the empire.
... and most of those were born long after it had effectively ended.
Do you know many people nostalgic for Empire? I don't know a single one.
That was astonishing to watch, yes there will be debate about the way It was done but what an achievement. The modern Roger Bannister
The debate seems rather trivial to me. Not an official record, no worries, proving it could be done and being the first is so major.
Yep, and proving it can be done makes it much more likely to happen again in a more official setting. Also the sheer effort that went into the attempt, the result of years of research and hundreds of people working together on adding tiny marginal gains to deliver the time.
I wonder if we’ll see that pace car at any official events over the winter? Its a development of the timing cars that already lead marathon runners and wasn’t directly affecting performance.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
That's ouefensive.
Well if you want to make an omelette you’ve got to crack an egg 😉
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
I’m not sure that they quite share the WWII nostalgia of the Brexiteers?
It may genuinely be a thing in certain circles, but I rarely, if ever, hear "WWII nostalgia" in real life. It's the same with the British Empire fixation that all Leavers are supposed to have. It just doesn't manifest itself among the people I know. I don't even see it in random folk out in public. I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Certainly not heard it up here much , lots in media though and it does seem to appeal to a certain stereotype. Many still miss the empire.
... and most of those were born long after it had effectively ended.
Do you know many people nostalgic for Empire? I don't know a single one.
Tbf no, I don't.
My point was that anyone who is nostalgic for Empire is hankering after something they probably don't have any actual experience of.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty well, picking up Corbynista votes, while holding onto moderate Remain centrist. I think it quite possible to do so again. The difficulty for Labour is that this works where there is an incumbent, but not where there is a new candidate. It is a way of holding seats not gaining them.
Outside those Lab held seats a Lab vote is a wasted vote, the LDs are the challengers in the rest of England. Sure, I expect the LDs to rack up a lot of second places (not pointless, as the next parliament also may be shortlived), but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
snip
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (
Of course the Lib Dems' project is to replace Labour as the main left-of-Centre Party (or, to win that place back if you like). That's what non-single-issue political parties are for:to become an established party of government.
And to do that they do need to put resources into seats which might not be winnable this time (though who knows in a realigning election), but may be in the future. FWIW, I think Uxbridge is a reasonable stretch target for them.
A lot of people seem to forget or ignore that the Lib Dems are currently very strong in London. The recent YouGov poll again had them near enough neck-and-neck for the lead in the capital. That has to imply considerable support beyond Twickenham and Richmond Park
Soubry hasn't done a deal with LibDems in Broxtowe then?
Mays deal effectively kept the UK in the orbit of the EU , to leave the backstop you’d need a very close relationship .
The Labour argument against that deal does not stand up to scrutiny , it’s irrelevant what was in the political declaration .
Mays deal narrowed the options , to leave the backstop you’d need alternative arrangements which clearly aren’t there .
So in effect the WA meant only a very close EU relationship with strong alignment on rules and rights would remove the backstop .
I think what we’ve seen is to be blunt the reality of politics, a lot of games , positioning in the party interest not the national one.
And this is really what the Tories and Labour have been doing , indeed welcome to politics .
Where this leaves us is with the hardest of Brexits as the Tories are likely to win the next election and without the constraints of the original deal free to run riot .
That’s not to say I don’t want a deal as there’s very few good options left . I expect UK EU relations with a deal will improve and at least there’s an orderly exit.
As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.
Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
My view is that there are about 8-12 seats in London and the South East that will be Brexit babies. (Yes, that few.)
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
Well, Labour seem intent on re-running 1983 so why shouldn't the Lib Dens join the party?
Because history tells us it’s a self-defeating dead-end.
It wasn't self-defeating for the Lib Dems - who, Labour supporters should remember are a rival party and not an arms-length subsidiary
It really was self defeating. The LDs didn’t make progress until 1997, when The anti Tory vote organised itself.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
That's ouefensive.
Well if you want to make an omelette you’ve got to crack an egg 😉
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
That's ouefensive.
Well if you want to make an omelette you’ve got to crack an egg 😉
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
I’m not sure that they quite share the WWII nostalgia of the Brexiteers?
It may genuinely be a thing in certain circles, but I rarely, if ever, hear "WWII nostalgia" in real life. It's the same with the British Empire fixation that all Leavers are supposed to have. It just doesn't manifest itself among the people I know. I don't even see it in random folk out in public. I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Certainly not heard it up here much , lots in media though and it does seem to appeal to a certain stereotype. Many still miss the empire.
... and most of those were born long after it had effectively ended.
Do you know many people nostalgic for Empire? I don't know a single one.
We see and hear plenty of jingoistic halfwits in media and calling into radio stations , blubbering on about how England won two world wars on its own. There are many many nutters about.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
That's ouefensive.
Well if you want to make an omelette you’ve got to crack an egg 😉
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
It’s brexit, nothing is 100% certain. But it’s not EU giving Boris a break is it, he’s given them a break the get out of jail card. I have it 60/40 they give him a deal based on that most famous bit of fudge in history.
Obviously then things are very difficult for remainers, flanked by DUP and ERG, triumphant blue trumpets sounding in commons, the press, around the country, Boris win in the commons.
Obviously we won’t leave 31st October, that would be resold as the negotiating deadline where the tough no deal talk achieved the deal, we leave in January. Boris victory parade around country and GE win then follows February or March.
Does that answer your question Big G? Those on PB this morning seem a bit asleep today. You should be able to look at that clever proposal and see all this happening.
I think a good deal depends on how self-centred the LibDem push is. If they throw resources at seats like Uxbridge where they have zero chance and Labour has a shot, they may push up their vote share but they'll also deliver a big Tory majority; even more if they assault seats like Portsmouth S where there's a Remainer Labour MP and the LibDems are third. I know a good many Labour voters in the South who are willing to lend the LibDems votes unless they think the main LibDem project is building up to be a replacement for Labour - in which case they really won't.
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (
Of course the Lib Dems' project is to replace Labour as the main left-of-Centre Party (or, to win that place back if you like). That's what non-single-issue political parties are for:to become an established party of government.
And to do that they do need to put resources into seats which might not be winnable this time (though who knows in a realigning election), but may be in the future. FWIW, I think Uxbridge is a reasonable stretch target for them.
A lot of people seem to forget or ignore that the Lib Dems are currently very strong in London. The recent YouGov poll again had them near enough neck-and-neck for the lead in the capital. That has to imply considerable support beyond Twickenham and Richmond Park
I would expect the Libs to be contesting seats based on a long term plan, which means not only winning seats but also establishing themselves in second place with a view to gaining tactical votes at subsequent elections. Their present problem is that they are in second place in remarkably few constituencies by comparison to their situation pre-coalition, and they are often in a weak third place even in seats which they held prior to 2015. However, the weakness of Labour gives them a big opportunity to establish those second places this time around in Conservative held seats.
The Libs ought therefore to be happier with an outcome where they won 35 seats and were 2nd in another 165 (= 200 1st or 2nd) than one where they won 50 seats but were second in only another 50 (=100 1st or 2nd) having failed to mount a significant campaign in the rest. That means that they ought to spread their resources around a bit.
Mays deal effectively kept the UK in the orbit of the EU , to leave the backstop you’d need a very close relationship .
The Labour argument against that deal does not stand up to scrutiny , it’s irrelevant what was in the political declaration .
Mays deal narrowed the options , to leave the backstop you’d need alternative arrangements which clearly aren’t there .
So in effect the WA meant only a very close EU relationship with strong alignment on rules and rights would remove the backstop .
I think what we’ve seen is to be blunt the reality of politics, a lot of games , positioning in the party interest not the national one.
And this is really what the Tories and Labour have been doing , indeed welcome to politics .
Where this leaves us is with the hardest of Brexits as the Tories are likely to win the next election and without the constraints of the original deal free to run riot .
That’s not to say I don’t want a deal as there’s very few good options left . I expect UK EU relations with a deal will improve and at least there’s an orderly exit.
Was not the ‘level playing field’ in terms or regulatory alignment with the EU there to pave a way to a relatively easy FTA? Now that’s gone it’s going to be a long hard slog with the EU unwilling to facilitate off shore Singapore N in trade negotiations.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
In 2017 lots of Lab MPs ran on a "Vote Labour to stop Labour" ticket. It worked pretty well, picking up Corbynista votes, while holding onto moderate Remain centrist. I think it quite possible to do so again. The difficulty for Labour is that this works where there is an incumbent, but not where there is a new candidate. It is a way of holding seats not gaining but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
I think a good deal depends on how self-centred the LibDem push is. If they throw resources at seats like Uxbridge where they have zero chance and Labour has a shot, they may push up their vote share but they'll also deliver a big Tory majority; even more if they assault seats like Portsmouth S where there's a Remainer Labour MP and the LibDems are third. I know a good many Labour voters in the South who are willing to lend the LibDems votes unless they think the main LibDem project is building up to be a replacement for Labour - in which case they really won't.
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (
Of course the Lib Dems' project is to replace Labour as the main left-of-Centre Party (or, to win that place back if you like). That's what non-single-issue political parties are for:to become an established party of government.
And to do that they do need to put resources into seats which might not be winnable this time (though who knows in a realigning election), but may be in the future. FWIW, I think Uxbridge is a reasonable stretch target for them.
A lot of people seem to forget or ignore that the Lib Dems are currently very strong in London. The recent YouGov poll again had them near enough neck-and-neck for the lead in the capital. That has to imply considerable support beyond Twickenham and Richmond Park
The LD project could equally be to replace the Europhile one nation conservatives. Arguably that’s what happened 97-05.
But either way under adversarial FPTP it is utterly irrelevant.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
That's ouefensive.
Well if you want to make an omelette you’ve got to crack an egg 😉
Mays deal effectively kept the UK in the orbit of the EU , to leave the backstop you’d need a very close relationship .
The Labour argument against that deal does not stand up to scrutiny , it’s irrelevant what was in the political declaration .
Mays deal narrowed the options , to leave the backstop you’d need alternative arrangements which clearly aren’t there .
So in effect the WA meant only a very close EU relationship with strong alignment on rules and rights would remove the backstop .
I think what we’ve seen is to be blunt the reality of politics, a lot of games , positioning in the party interest not the national one.
And this is really what the Tories and Labour have been doing , indeed welcome to politics .
Where this leaves us is with the hardest of Brexits as the Tories are likely to win the next election and without the constraints of the original deal free to run riot .
That’s not to say I don’t want a deal as there’s very few good options left . I expect UK EU relations with a deal will improve and at least there’s an orderly exit.
Johnson is proposing a very, very hard Brexit - one that has the potential to inflict significant damage to a number of manufacturing and services industries, with all the implications for jobs and public spending that will have. I am not sure how well it will stand up to the sustained scrutiny of an election campaign in which leaving itself is no longer an issue. Of course, Corbyn will be a huge benefit to Johnson, but most Brits will not want the low tax, low protection, low public spending Singapore-system the Tories are going to be offering. In short, my guess is that a post-Leave election does not work as well for them as a pre-Leave one.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
you sound a bit cracked
That's ouefensive.
Well if you want to make an omelette you’ve got to crack an egg 😉
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
As I read it, the House of Commons has to approve any agreement when it sits a week today (and the House of Lords has to debate it) otherwise, Johnson has to request an extension until 31 January by no later than midnight the same day.
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
How does Johnson get a deal with the EU refusing to open the WA 😄
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
Could you share your copy of the agreement with the rest of us please?
I can’t see a labour MP voting for that and retaining the whip.
Of the 262 Labour MPs elected in 2017, so far Labour has lost or removed the whip from 17 MPs this parliament and there are a further 16 with the whip who are standing down, with probably more to come.
Comments
What are the EU options?
What is the extension for?
So the EU can have:
No extension
1 or 2 months to do essential legislation for negotiated deal if there is one.
31st Jan as requested under Benn act. For election? Not really time for anything else so a bit pointless, could lead to a good or bad result for EU.
Longer than 31st Jan. To allow referendum or new negotiation with new government.
What is the final deadline? June 30th or 2020 or eternity?
That said I dont but that the LDs wont put Corbyn in no.10 through a 'you'll need to buy our support for each and every vote' deal.
If Tories cannot work with dup to govern the LDs will be the house on another election or even more weak minority government? I dont believe that
If a deal is agreed, and if it does require a couple of months' work on legislation, that probably pushes an election back to the Spring. Mightn't it be a better strategy politically for the opposition to agree the deal and try to move the agenda away from Brexit and on to domestic issues?
I agree on both points. The most valid current objection to a second referendum melts away once we have actually left.
Initially I think there will be relief all round if we leave with a deal. How it pans out after that will largely depend on how the UK economy does. If we appear to be becoming the "sick man of Europe" again then demand to rejoin will grow.
If we do want to rejoin we will then come to realise what a good deal we actually had before we jettisoned it. It would be ironic if Brexit ultimately led to full-on membership and joining the Euro.
Are we there yet?
https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1182790576514707458
FWIW I think the EU will approve any extension if asked for. There will be noises and complaints but for example Macron will not be the one who forced a nodeal brexit. Then with each extension the EU will suggest in even stronger terms what they hope to see from the British government, such as GE and/or referendum. The British government will react to the EU wishes by ignoring them.
I wish it didnt, and maybe the LDs finally break back through this time, but the grip of the big two, though shakier than theyd like given the euros, remains strong. Theres too much at stake to split the vote and let in a no deal tory/marxist corbynite.
They've used it as long as you've lived because it works .
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/george-conway-trump-unfit-office/599128/
Trump’s lawyers in the Russia investigation clearly agreed: As Bob Woodward recounts at length in his book Fear, members of Trump’s criminal-defense team fought both Trump and Mueller tooth and nail to keep Trump from being interviewed by the Office of Special Counsel. A practice testimonial session ended with Trump spouting wild, baseless assertions in a rage. Woodward quotes Trump’s outside counsel John Dowd as saying that Trump “just made something up” in response to one question. “That’s his nature.” Woodward also recounts Dowd’s thinking when he argued to Trump that the president was “not really capable” of answering Mueller’s questions face to face. Dowd had “to dress it up as much as possible, to say, it’s not your fault … He could not say what he knew was true: ‘You’re a fucking liar.’ That was the problem.” (Dowd disputes this account.) Which raises the question: If Trump can’t tell the truth even when it counts most, with legal jeopardy on the line and lawyers there to help prepare him, is he able to apprehend the truth at all?
Behavior like this is unusual, a point that journalists across the political spectrum have made. “This is not normal,” Megan McArdle wrote in late August. “And I don’t mean that as in, ‘Trump is violating the shibboleths of the Washington establishment.’ I mean that as in, ‘This is not normal for a functioning adult.’” James Fallows observed, also in August, that Trump is having “episodes of what would be called outright lunacy, if they occurred in any other setting,” and that if he “were in virtually any other position of responsibility, action would already be under way to remove him from that role.”...
And the easiest path has explained many of the worst decisions and pointless prevarications in this mess.
I generally agree that Labour's strategy needs to be 90% defensive, but there are seats where the general confusion gives a reasonable chance - I expect to spend most of my time in Broxtowe for that reason, as Soubry and the LibDems are splitting the small centrist vote (<5% last time) and the local Tories are deeply split and have chosen an unknown councillors from another area as their candidate.
The alternative is months and months of who knows what trouble, chaos and uncertainty and potentially a massive constitutional crisis.
Ten years from now I can see us rejoining after Brexit has been successfully portrayed as the folly of the baby-boomers.
If the EU can sort out the disaster that is the deflation associated with the euro then we will rejoin, perhaps in some outer rim of countries who are not too keen on out and out integration.
A Boris premiership with the LDs in second place is of course far better for the LDs than a Corbyn Premiership with the LDs in third place
Actually the win win he has proposed is a work of genius. It’s brexit. It’s hard brexit with us benefitting from out the evil CU and all the benefits of negotiating our own trade deals, yet it pulls the rugg from under every single Ireland condition EU have been insisting on.
Why couldn’t May have done this? She had months. Did EU say to Her “not opening WA” and she meekly said, oh, okay then. So this deal the benefit have having tough shrewd negotiators?
I don’t think it entirely unlikely that Trump be removed via the 25th, as opposed to be impeachment. Either way, that would only happen were sufficient Republican senators to decide getting rid of him had become a political necessity; at that point it becomes a tactical calculation.
And I can’t see the Democrats blocking removal via the 25th.
https://news.sky.com/story/johnsons-brexit-proposal-creates-illusion-of-victory-for-both-sides-11833165
You only have to pause for a second on these details and extrapolate to know this fudge will result in a deal this week.
https://news.sky.com/story/johnsons-brexit-proposal-creates-illusion-of-victory-for-both-sides-11833165
Rushcliffe seems the main LD target near Nottingham.
My guess would be that EFTA will prove an attractive immediate option and I could see a post-Corbyn Labour party having a manifesto commitment to do that and winning a GE in a few years time. Rejoining would definitely need a referendum IMO.
(apologies - messed up block quotes. Surely there has to be an easier system!!)
In both cases, in many areas, it could unintentionally assist an poor outcome though. Which is why I expect most not to risk it.
But people should feel more comfortable voting for their first preference no matter what .
Wanting the Empire back is something that I genuinely feel is more of a Remainer accusation based on their own way of looking at the world. They are the sort of people who adore great power politics for its own sake, and feel that the EU has replaced the Empire and gives us a 'seat at the top table' which is of intrinsic value whether it actually helps British people or not.
Self defeating might make more sense, if one takes the view that a focus on eclipsing Labour leads to a lot of wasted votes and a Tory win, but that's not the same thing - they are supposed to be self centred.
And to do that they do need to put resources into seats which might not be winnable this time (though who knows in a realigning election), but may be in the future. FWIW, I think Uxbridge is a reasonable stretch target for them.
A lot of people seem to forget or ignore that the Lib Dems are currently very strong in London. The recent YouGov poll again had them near enough neck-and-neck for the lead in the capital. That has to imply considerable support beyond Twickenham and Richmond Park
I wonder if we’ll see that pace car at any official events over the winter? Its a development of the timing cars that already lead marathon runners and wasn’t directly affecting performance.
Well done @AlastairMeeks
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1182914392326901761
My point was that anyone who is nostalgic for Empire is hankering after something they probably don't have any actual experience of.
Mays deal effectively kept the UK in the orbit of the EU , to leave the backstop you’d need a very close relationship .
The Labour argument against that deal does not stand up to scrutiny , it’s irrelevant what was in the political declaration .
Mays deal narrowed the options , to leave the backstop you’d need alternative arrangements which clearly aren’t there .
So in effect the WA meant only a very close EU relationship with strong alignment on rules and rights would remove the backstop .
I think what we’ve seen is to be blunt the reality of politics, a lot of games , positioning in the party interest not the national one.
And this is really what the Tories and Labour have been doing , indeed welcome to politics .
Where this leaves us is with the hardest of Brexits as the Tories are likely to win the next election and without the constraints of the original deal free to run riot .
That’s not to say I don’t want a deal as there’s very few good options left . I expect UK EU relations with a deal will improve and at least there’s an orderly exit.
Obviously then things are very difficult for remainers, flanked by DUP and ERG, triumphant blue trumpets sounding in commons, the press, around the country, Boris win in the commons.
Obviously we won’t leave 31st October, that would be resold as the negotiating deadline where the tough no deal talk achieved the deal, we leave in January. Boris victory parade around country and GE win then follows February or March.
Does that answer your question Big G? Those on PB this morning seem a bit asleep today.
You should be able to look at that clever proposal and see all this happening.
The Libs ought therefore to be happier with an outcome where they won 35 seats and were 2nd in another 165 (= 200 1st or 2nd) than one where they won 50 seats but were second in only another 50 (=100 1st or 2nd) having failed to mount a significant campaign in the rest. That means that they ought to spread their resources around a bit.
https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/1182756792675139584
But either way under adversarial FPTP it is utterly irrelevant.
That's a very whisk-y eggusation.