Seems I just landed a Hollywood 3-movie deal......
Congratulations! May I say I have always been an admirer of yours and your fine (thinks for a moment)...ability to type words, and should you require a statistical researcher of some repute, please note that I am very, very cheap...
The Conservatives' fortunes right now are dependent on the Brexit Party. In any seat where BXP stand, that takes 5%-15% off the Conservative vote. There are a lot of seats where that would mean a loss to Labour or the Lib Dems.
The Brexit Party's chairman is Richard Tice. Richard Tice's girlfriend is Isabel Oakeshott.
Isabel Oakeshott is very big on the military.
Johnson shitting on "the military" like this is red-rag-to-a-bull territory to Oakeshott. She is already tweeting about it. If he wants to stop the Brexit Party from eroding his vote, this is entirely the wrong way to go about it.
There is more I could say but it would be a bit personal so I will refrain.
If we leave at the end of the month the BXP will cease to exist in any meaningful form.
Farage is a nasicist. He cannot help himself. If it is not the EU, it will be immigration or something else he campaigns against. Indeed, if a deal is agreed he will say it is not really Leaving! Brexit being executed will only embolden him. The Tories are likley to be weaker from this point forward and so a space for Farage is available.
Farage is a narcisst but he has no intention I'd hope of becoming a poundshop Griffin.
He will say what he has to say, but he'll say it from a studio with a big fat cheque from the media. He'll be able to retire from politics having said he's gotten us out of Europe while being able to command attention and money from the media.
The Benn Act did no such thing, it just kicked the can. We could still have had an election and gotten a mandate. With Boris well in the lead in the polls and with the polls showing Leavers blamed Parliament and not Boris for any extension we could yet have a much harder exit.
But Boris genuinely wanted it done on time. He was already trying and speaking to Merkel and others before the Benn Act passed.
Of course he wanted it done on time, and no doubt still does. Having quite unnecessarily made a massive rod for his own back with the date, he'd be raving bonkers not to want it done on time.
But wanting it doesn't make it happen, although it does explain his increasingly desperate flailing around of the last few days.
The Conservatives' fortunes right now are dependent on the Brexit Party. In any seat where BXP stand, that takes 5%-15% off the Conservative vote. There are a lot of seats where that would mean a loss to Labour or the Lib Dems.
The Brexit Party's chairman is Richard Tice. Richard Tice's girlfriend is Isabel Oakeshott.
Isabel Oakeshott is very big on the military.
Johnson shitting on "the military" like this is red-rag-to-a-bull territory to Oakeshott. She is already tweeting about it. If he wants to stop the Brexit Party from eroding his vote, this is entirely the wrong way to go about it.
There is more I could say but it would be a bit personal so I will refrain.
If we leave at the end of the month the BXP will cease to exist in any meaningful form.
Farage is a nasicist. He cannot help himself. If it is not the EU, it will be immigration or something else he campaigns against. Indeed, if a deal is agreed he will say it is not really Leaving! Brexit being executed will only embolden him. The Tories are likley to be weaker from this point forward and so a space for Farage is available.
Farage is a narcisst but he has no intention I'd hope of becoming a poundshop Griffin.
He will say what he has to say, but he'll say it from a studio with a big fat cheque from the media. He'll be able to retire from politics having said he's gotten us out of Europe while being able to command attention and money from the media.
If that was all he wanted he could have accepted the last deal as not great but still counting as us leaving, like Boris did. Clearly he wasn't willing to see any Brexit and retire from politics, there's no guarantee he will do so if Boris gets one he also doesn't like.
The Conservatives' fortunes right now are dependent on the Brexit Party. In any seat where BXP stand, that takes 5%-15% off the Conservative vote. There are a lot of seats where that would mean a loss to Labour or the Lib Dems.
The Brexit Party's chairman is Richard Tice. Richard Tice's girlfriend is Isabel Oakeshott.
Isabel Oakeshott is very big on the military.
Johnson shitting on "the military" like this is red-rag-to-a-bull territory to Oakeshott. She is already tweeting about it. If he wants to stop the Brexit Party from eroding his vote, this is entirely the wrong way to go about it.
There is more I could say but it would be a bit personal so I will refrain.
If we leave at the end of the month the BXP will cease to exist in any meaningful form.
Farage is a nasicist. He cannot help himself. If it is not the EU, it will be immigration or something else he campaigns against. Indeed, if a deal is agreed he will say it is not really Leaving! Brexit being executed will only embolden him. The Tories are likley to be weaker from this point forward and so a space for Farage is available.
Farage is a narcisst but he has no intention I'd hope of becoming a poundshop Griffin.
He will say what he has to say, but he'll say it from a studio with a big fat cheque from the media. He'll be able to retire from politics having said he's gotten us out of Europe while being able to command attention and money from the media.
If that was all he wanted he could have accepted the last deal as not great but still counting as us leaving, like Boris did. Clearly he wasn't willing to see any Brexit and retire from politics, there's no guarantee he will do so if Boris gets one he also doesn't like.
Except May didn't get her Brexit.
Farage didn't come back until after May's deal had been comprehensively rejected and an extension and EU election was coming. Farage was able to come back with a very simple and clear message "we voted to leave, we haven't left, respect democracy and tell them again".
The Conservatives' fortunes right now are dependent on the Brexit Party. In any seat where BXP stand, that takes 5%-15% off the Conservative vote. There are a lot of seats where that would mean a loss to Labour or the Lib Dems.
The Brexit Party's chairman is Richard Tice. Richard Tice's girlfriend is Isabel Oakeshott.
Isabel Oakeshott is very big on the military.
Johnson shitting on "the military" like this is red-rag-to-a-bull territory to Oakeshott. She is already tweeting about it. If he wants to stop the Brexit Party from eroding his vote, this is entirely the wrong way to go about it.
There is more I could say but it would be a bit personal so I will refrain.
If we leave at the end of the month the BXP will cease to exist in any meaningful form.
Farage iden him. The Tories are likley to be weaker from this point forward and so a space for Farage is available.
Fare media.
If that was all he wanted he could have accepted the last deal as not great but still counting as us leaving, like Boris did. Clearly he wasn't willing to see any Brexit and retire from politics, there's no guarantee he will do so if Boris gets one he also doesn't like.
Except May didn't get her Brexit.
Farage didn't come back until after May's deal had been comprehensively rejected and an extension and EU election was coming. Farage was able to come back with a very simple and clear message "we voted to leave, we haven't left, respect democracy and tell them again".
That message is gone the second we've left.
The point remains he didn't want May's deal to pass and won't want a Boris deal to pass. I doubt he would have come back in such a big way if May had gotten her deal through - as you note BXP only surged afterwards, which incidentally is one reason the grovelling to Boris for reducing them is a bit weird, since even May had good polling until the Faragites in her party sunk things - but he'd still be around saying this was not what he wanted, not what the British people wanted. He'd be a more marginal figure, no question, but he seems much more willing to stop a Boris Brexit, or whinge after a Boris Brexit, than some are expecting.
I have written a book! Its about a prominent womaniser who is caught by his girlfriend masterbating over pornographic films! He spills some wine all over some furniture. The lead role is a tragic, lonley figure who could not organise a drinking session in a brewery. He is hated by 2/3 of people! His apoligists let him get away with despatching falsehoods.but a day of reckoning awaits when he will be cut down by those who feel betrayed...
Farage didn't come back until after May's deal had been comprehensively rejected and an extension and EU election was coming. Farage was able to come back with a very simple and clear message "we voted to leave, we haven't left, respect democracy and tell them again".
That message is gone the second we've left.
The point remains he didn't want May's deal to pass and won't want a Boris deal to pass. I doubt he would have come back in such a big way if May had gotten her deal through - as you note BXP only surged afterwards, which incidentally is one reason the grovelling to Boris for reducing them is a bit weird, since even May had good polling until the Faragites in her party sunk things - but he'd still be around saying this was not what he wanted, not what the British people wanted. He'd be a more marginal figure, no question, but he seems much more willing to stop a Boris Brexit, or whinge after a Boris Brexit, than some are expecting.
He may not want a deal to pass but it isn't up to him. He has zero MPs in Parliament. If the deal does pass its game over for Farage.
He can be a petty marginal figure in the shadows, i'm not bothered by that. But if the Tories aren't serious about Brexit he'll be a credible and existential threat as he was to May. As he would have been to Hunt if the Tories had been dumb enough to choose Hunt over Boris which they thankfully weren't.
Sleazy Tories on the slide! You would have to be very brave, if you were the governing party to instigate an election on those figures. Margin of error changes could wipe out the Tory lead!
It could just be working and if it does work, it wasn't mad.
Plus if it hadn't worked, which is what I was expecting yesterday morning, and if the voters sided with him at the election as they didn't blame him then it wasn't mad either.
If it's working, it's because the Benn Act has done what Theresa May tried but failed to do: close off one of the two extreme options, thus forcing those who wanted that extreme to tack to the remaining middle-ground one. I'm sceptical, though, that such support will survive a detailed text.
The Benn Act did no such thing, it just kicked the can. We could still have had an election and gotten a mandate. With Boris well in the lead in the polls and with the polls showing Leavers blamed Parliament and not Boris for any extension we could yet have a much harder exit.
But Boris genuinely wanted it done on time. He was already trying and speaking to Merkel and others before the Benn Act passed.
Nevertheless all that stuff about keeping no deal on the table as essential to getting a deal turned out to be tosh, as we always thought it was.
One has to wonder what Boris would have to do to please some of the supposed conservatives on here that have spent the last couple of months gleefully parading their own petulance.
Seems to me Boris is getting dangerously close to getting the EU to reopen a text that was closed, building a parliamentary coalition for a deal despite impossible arithmetic AND getting it done by the supposedly hubristic date of 31 October.
He might still fail of course, indeed perhaps that’s by a distance still the most likely outcome. But I hope he’s given fair credit if he does pull it off. Whether you wanted Brexit or not, it will be a serious political achievement.
It could just be working and if it does work, it wasn't mad.
Plus if it hadn't worked, which is what I was expecting yesterday morning, and if the voters sided with him at the election as they didn't blame him then it wasn't mad either.
If it's working, it's because the Benn Act has done what Theresa May tried but failed to do: close off one of the two extreme options, thus forcing those who wanted that extreme to tack to the remaining middle-ground one. I'm sceptical, though, that such support will survive a detailed text.
The Benn Act did no such thing, it just kicked the can. We could still have had an election and gotten a mandate. With Boris well in the lead in the polls and with the polls showing Leavers blamed Parliament and not Boris for any extension we could yet have a much harder exit.
But Boris genuinely wanted it done on time. He was already trying and speaking to Merkel and others before the Benn Act passed.
Nevertheless all that stuff about keeping no deal on the table as essential to getting a deal turned out to be tosh, as we always thought it was.
Alternatively Boris did enough to keep no deal on the table despite the Benn Act.
By being as forceful as he was he recovered the Tory lead in the polls, upto 15 points in some, so the choice could be potentially for the EU to compromise and get a deal through now - or to bet it all on rejecting a compromise and probably be back facing Boris in a few months time only now Boris would be able to control whether it is no deal or not.
One has to wonder what Boris would have to do to please some of the supposed conservatives on here that have spent the last couple of months gleefully parading their own petulance.
Seems to me Boris is getting dangerously close to getting the EU to reopen a text that was closed, building a parliamentary coalition for a deal despite impossible arithmetic AND getting it done by the supposedly hubristic date of 31 October.
He might still fail of course, indeed perhaps that’s by a distance still the most likely outcome. But I hope he’s given fair credit if he does pull it off. Whether you wanted Brexit or not, it will be a serious political achievement.
Let's see what happens! I don't think he can get a deal though parliament and he has a commons majority of minus 40 odd due to his own bungling. Please don't take everything in the media at face value. The truth is BJ is no nearer to closing a deal that he can implement...
Sleazy Tories on the slide! You would have to be very brave, if you were the governing party to instigate an election on those figures. Margin of error changes could wipe out the Tory lead!
I don't think they're on the slide compared to the previous poll by the same firm. But I agree 33% isn't the best of figures with which to enter an election campaign.
Sleazy Tories on the slide! You would have to be very brave, if you were the governing party to instigate an election on those figures. Margin of error changes could wipe out the Tory lead!
I'd like that to be true but it's only a close race in shitty polls, the better pollsters have much bigger leads.
One has to wonder what Boris would have to do to please some of the supposed conservatives on here that have spent the last couple of months gleefully parading their own petulance.
Seems to me Boris is getting dangerously close to getting the EU to reopen a text that was closed, building a parliamentary coalition for a deal despite impossible arithmetic AND getting it done by the supposedly hubristic date of 31 October.
He might still fail of course, indeed perhaps that’s by a distance still the most likely outcome. But I hope he’s given fair credit if he does pull it off. Whether you wanted Brexit or not, it will be a serious political achievement.
Let's see what happens! I don't think he can get a deal though parliament and he has a commons majority of minus 40 odd due to his own bungling. Please don't take everything in the media at face value. The truth is BJ is no nearer to closing a deal that he can implement...
Alternatively, look back to the hypothetical Brady deal which got through fairly comfortably. There are now a new block of Labour MPs on top that have also committed to backing an exit too.
If Boris has got something the DUP can live with, then I think you need to be honest with yourself that it will sail through Parliament, it won’t even be that close. And that’s without the EU agreeing to make it a This Deal or No Deal binary choice. Whether he can pass a Queens Speech is another matter of course.
Suspect we’ll know more or less where it’s heading by Monday morning.
I thought Trudeau was supposed to be the great liberal hope, is there a particular reason he is facing such a fight to get a mere second term?
Have you been hiding in a tent the last few months? Have you not noticed the blackface affair or the Quebec jobs scandal?
In any case 'great liberal hopes' often face a challenge for re election, Obama certainly did but regardless it still looks the same as it has most of the campaign, Trudeau loses his majority and Conservatives advance but stays PM with NDP and BQ support
If they do that would be great news for Boris as Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is very pro Brexit and would be full speed ahead as Canadian PM for a trade deal with post Brexit UK (though if Trudeau is re elected Boris also gets on quite well with him too but Trudeau is less enthusiastic about Brexit and while he would do a trade deal as well it would likely take longer)
Assuming the PM gets a deal sorted which gets through. Does anybody think the LDs will be brave enough to put re-entry into their next manifesto?
It’s quite an interesting question. They have set themselves up for an election to be fought on Brexit. If we do leave before an election, one has to think Brexit won’t be too prominent a campaign feature.
One view is that leaves the Libs snookered. Another is that those now saying they’ve flipped from blue/red to yellow have already psychologically consummated the affair and will stick around anyway.
One has to wonder what Boris would have to do to please some of the supposed conservatives on here that have spent the last couple of months gleefully parading their own petulance.
Seems to me Boris is getting dangerously close to getting the EU to reopen a text that was closed, building a parliamentary coalition for a deal despite impossible arithmetic AND getting it done by the supposedly hubristic date of 31 October.
He might still fail of course, indeed perhaps that’s by a distance still the most likely outcome. But I hope he’s given fair credit if he does pull it off. Whether you wanted Brexit or not, it will be a serious political achievement.
Let's see what happens! I don't think he can get a deal though parliament and he has a commons majority of minus 40 odd due to his own bungling. Please don't take everything in the media at face value. The truth is BJ is no nearer to closing a deal that he can implement...
Alternatively, look back to the hypothetical Brady deal which got through fairly comfortably. There are now a new block of Labour MPs on top that have also committed to backing an exit too.
If Boris has got something the DUP can live with, then I think you need to be honest with yourself that it will sail through Parliament, it won’t even be that close. And that’s without the EU agreeing to make it a This Deal or No Deal binary choice. Whether he can pass a Queens Speech is another matter of course.
Suspect we’ll know more or less where it’s heading by Monday morning.
As soon as that? They could keep us on tenterhooks until next Friday.
Though interesting that Barnier seems to already have another meeting announced with the EU27 to update them on progress on Sunday. So this could all come public then perhaps?
One has to wonder what Boris would have to do to please some of the supposed conservatives on here that have spent the last couple of months gleefully parading their own petulance.
Seems to me Boris is getting dangerously close to getting the EU to reopen a text that was closed, building a parliamentary coalition for a deal despite impossible arithmetic AND getting it done by the supposedly hubristic date of 31 October.
He might still fail of course, indeed perhaps that’s by a distance still the most likely outcome. But I hope he’s given fair credit if he does pull it off. Whether you wanted Brexit or not, it will be a serious political achievement.
Let's see what happens! I don't think he can get a deal though parliament and he has a commons majority of minus 40 odd due to his own bungling. Please don't take everything in the media at face value. The truth is BJ is no nearer to closing a deal that he can implement...
Alternatively, look back to the hypothetical Brady deal which got through fairly comfortably. There are now a new block of Labour MPs on top that have also committed to backing an exit too.
If Boris has got something the DUP can live with, then I think you need to be honest with yourself that it will sail through Parliament, it won’t even be that close. And that’s without the EU agreeing to make it a This Deal or No Deal binary choice. Whether he can pass a Queens Speech is another matter of course.
Suspect we’ll know more or less where it’s heading by Monday morning.
As soon as that? They could keep us on tenterhooks until next Friday.
Though interesting that Barnier seems to already have another meeting announced with the EU27 to update them on progress on Sunday. So this could all come public then perhaps?
Perhaps one of the parties has a further flounce in them but it’s getting pretty tight now. If he gets through the weekend without either the DUP or Varadkar blowing it up then one suspects he’s closing in on the target.
I thought Trudeau was supposed to be the great liberal hope, is there a particular reason he is facing such a fight to get a mere second term?
Have you been hiding in a tent the last few months? Have you not noticed the blackface affair or the Quebec jobs scandal?
In any case 'great liberal hopes' often face a challenge for re election, Obama certainly did but regardless it still looks the same as it has most of the campaign, Trudeau loses his majority and Conservatives advance but stays PM with NDP and BQ support
IMO there'll probably be another election within 18 months in Canada if no party wins a majority which seems very likely at the moment.
I don't think there's even been a coalition government at the federal level in Canada, although there's a first time for everything.
The Comres Poll implies 19 gains from Labour - 13 would have first term incumbency - offset by 13 losses to LDs and circa 10 to SNP - leaving the Tories with 314 seats.
The Comres Poll implies 19 gains from Labour - 13 would have first term incumbency - offset by 13 losses to LDs and circa 10 to SNP - leaving the Tories with 314 seats.
And the Tories thus still in power anyway with DUP support
The Comres Poll implies 19 gains from Labour - 13 would have first term incumbency - offset by 13 losses to LDs and circa 10 to SNP - leaving the Tories with 314 seats.
That is before Corbyn and Momentum get their teeth into a campaign and before Johnson gets an extension. Everything still to play for, can't wait for the election to start.
Does anyone understand why the ComRes figures seem to be consistently out of line with other pollsters like YouGov?
Is it sampling, methodology or something else?
Polls from the last month.
Survation Con 27% Lab 24% Lead 3%
BMG Con 31% Lab 26% Lead 5%
ComRes Con 33% Lab 27% Lead 6%
IpsosMori Con 33% Lab 24% Lead 9%
YouGov Con 35% Lab 22% Lead 13%
Opinium Con 38% Lab 23% Lead 15%
The average lead for the Tories is 8.5% so Ispos Mori are the least out of touch with other pollsters in terms of the average, they also as close as they can be to the middle with pollsters on each side of them.
Unless we preference particular pollsters then ComRes look less out of line than YouGov both in terms of position among the pollsters and difference from the average.
ComRes is 2.5% difference. YouGov is 4.5% difference.
Arguably if any it is YouGov more out of line with other pollsters.
Comments
He will say what he has to say, but he'll say it from a studio with a big fat cheque from the media. He'll be able to retire from politics having said he's gotten us out of Europe while being able to command attention and money from the media.
But wanting it doesn't make it happen, although it does explain his increasingly desperate flailing around of the last few days.
https://youtu.be/0rNfZxgkH7k
Farage didn't come back until after May's deal had been comprehensively rejected and an extension and EU election was coming. Farage was able to come back with a very simple and clear message "we voted to leave, we haven't left, respect democracy and tell them again".
That message is gone the second we've left.
Well done MarqueeMark on the deal!
Con 33% Lab 27% Lib-Dem 18% BXP 12% Con Lead 6%
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1189701/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-conservative-tory-majority-election-poll-labour
He can be a petty marginal figure in the shadows, i'm not bothered by that. But if the Tories aren't serious about Brexit he'll be a credible and existential threat as he was to May. As he would have been to Hunt if the Tories had been dumb enough to choose Hunt over Boris which they thankfully weren't.
Seems to me Boris is getting dangerously close to getting the EU to reopen a text that was closed, building a parliamentary coalition for a deal despite impossible arithmetic AND getting it done by the supposedly hubristic date of 31 October.
He might still fail of course, indeed perhaps that’s by a distance still the most likely outcome. But I hope he’s given fair credit if he does pull it off. Whether you wanted Brexit or not, it will be a serious political achievement.
By being as forceful as he was he recovered the Tory lead in the polls, upto 15 points in some, so the choice could be potentially for the EU to compromise and get a deal through now - or to bet it all on rejecting a compromise and probably be back facing Boris in a few months time only now Boris would be able to control whether it is no deal or not.
May as well compromise now.
Is it sampling, methodology or something else?
"There are a few unusual cases (for example, I think ComRes still reallocate don’t knows, which helps Labour at present, but most companies do not"
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10045
If Boris has got something the DUP can live with, then I think you need to be honest with yourself that it will sail through Parliament, it won’t even be that close. And that’s without the EU agreeing to make it a This Deal or No Deal binary choice. Whether he can pass a Queens Speech is another matter of course.
Suspect we’ll know more or less where it’s heading by Monday morning.
In any case 'great liberal hopes' often face a challenge for re election, Obama certainly did but regardless it still looks the same as it has most of the campaign, Trudeau loses his majority and Conservatives advance but stays PM with NDP and BQ support
One view is that leaves the Libs snookered. Another is that those now saying they’ve flipped from blue/red to yellow have already psychologically consummated the affair and will stick around anyway.
Though interesting that Barnier seems to already have another meeting announced with the EU27 to update them on progress on Sunday. So this could all come public then perhaps?
Whether they'll have it in their manifesto after that is another question.
Conservatives 330
Labour 228
LDs 33
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=27&LIB=18&Brexit=12&Green=2&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
I don't think there's even been a coalition government at the federal level in Canada, although there's a first time for everything.
"About Time"
"Midnight In Paris"
Polls from the last month.
Survation
Con 27% Lab 24% Lead 3%
BMG
Con 31% Lab 26% Lead 5%
ComRes
Con 33% Lab 27% Lead 6%
IpsosMori
Con 33% Lab 24% Lead 9%
YouGov
Con 35% Lab 22% Lead 13%
Opinium
Con 38% Lab 23% Lead 15%
The average lead for the Tories is 8.5% so Ispos Mori are the least out of touch with other pollsters in terms of the average, they also as close as they can be to the middle with pollsters on each side of them.
Unless we preference particular pollsters then ComRes look less out of line than YouGov both in terms of position among the pollsters and difference from the average.
ComRes is 2.5% difference.
YouGov is 4.5% difference.
Arguably if any it is YouGov more out of line with other pollsters.