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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    SunnyJim said:


    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    The Benn Act clearly states that he, or whoever is PM at that point, would have to ask for an A50 extension if a deal is agreed but voted down by the HoC.

    I see it the other way.

    If there is a deal agreed it will be all over the press and media as Brexit finally resolved and just needing rubber stamping by parliament.

    The public aren't going to accept opposition MPs continuing to play games by voting down a deal.

    If they do then the goal is wide open for the government to resign and then vote down the alternatives after Corbyn has signed Labour's surrender letter.

    Drag them to the ballot box kicking and screaming and let the voters deliver the final hammer blow.
    I think there is something in this. Hence would be interested in Nick's take
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    Regardless without a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and probably no Brexit at all
    You are wrong. A Brexit Party majority would see Brexit.
    Are you sure? The words “piss up” and “brewery” come to mind.
    That is also true.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    I don't know whether Protestants are secularising faster than Catholics, but a look at the percentages for different age groups shows a rapid change. Protestants outnumber Catholics only among those aged 40 and more. For those under 20 Catholics outnumber Protestants by at least 7% in every age group. For those under 5, by more than 12%:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland#/media/File:Religion_by_age_in_northern_ireland_2011.png
    Not in County Antrim, the largest county in Northern Ireland, which is still largely over 60% Protestant
    Well, of course some people might have the idea of redrawing the border, so we could have the United Kingdom of Great Britain and County Antrim.

    Or possibly the United Kingdom of England and County Antrim.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Still nothing from Number 10 or Foster. They must be in talks. Can’t be a complete non-starter.

    Must they? I would hope they are, that he has learned from May not to try to just bounce Foster into something, but is there any word that it is actually the case?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s interesting that Nissan have come out with this no deal warning at this time .

    Sunderland is really important in terms of the zeitgeist surrounding Brexit , of all the warnings this is one of the few that might impact .

    I think this will embolden those against no deal , it also puts more pressure on Johnson .

  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    kle4 said:

    Still nothing from Number 10 or Foster. They must be in talks. Can’t be a complete non-starter.

    Must they? I would hope they are, that he has learned from May not to try to just bounce Foster into something, but is there any word that it is actually the case?
    She’s been drugged, kidnapped and being replaced by a remote controlled drone.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Still nothing from Number 10 or Foster. They must be in talks. Can’t be a complete non-starter.

    Must they? I would hope they are, that he has learned from May not to try to just bounce Foster into something, but is there any word that it is actually the case?
    You’re right, we can’t know that. But it’s odd not to have heard from her. Only a Wilson quote, I think? Implies Foster/Dodds/Paisley are talking to me. They’re not usually short of a quote.

    But who knows.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.

    casino royale probably has the right approach on this one.
    The scenario is very different to TM time and I would expect public opinion would soar behind Boris if he achieves a deal and the media would have a field day with dissenters
    Hmmmm...Boris now has far too many enemies to achieve any kind of collective goodwill from those who dislike him...any Labour MP who ventures near would be vilified

    Toxic Boris has fucked the Tory party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163


    May sold her deal astonishingly badly, tbh.

    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    No. The MPs that rejected it would be utterly done for.
    It is possible that the brutal way the whip was removed from the 21 Tories was designed as a massive warning to ERG as to what awaits them if they vote against a new deal.
    I believe no less than HYUFD suggested such a harsh punishment would indeed be in store for any remaining Tories who voted against a Boris deal. It would be very interesting to see if that worked, so it would be worth a deal being agreed with the EU purely to see that scenario play out.

    Would make those exiled Tories who've ruled out returning to the fold look a bit precipitous though, expecially if they do vote for the deal.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    justin124 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Well that is what happened - three times - to May's Deal.
    But that was then, this is now and the hiatus of Brexit.

    Who knows but if a deal is achieved it will be a brave mp who votes against
    I think Johnson has caved on a backstop customs union for NI with any vote to leave the backstop after four years requiring the consent of both the nationalist and the unionist community either in Stormont or a referendum.

    The EU will agree to that. But the DUP and ERG won't. How many Labour MPs will? I think parliament will turn it down. It changes the narrative to parliament being the enemy of the people, not the EU.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    nico67 said:

    It’s interesting that Nissan have come out with this no deal warning at this time .

    Sunderland is really important in terms of the zeitgeist surrounding Brexit , of all the warnings this is one of the few that might impact .

    I think this will embolden those against no deal , it also puts more pressure on Johnson .

    Maybe. But note they mentioned “European” operations and not just UK operations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    I don't know whether Protestants are secularising faster than Catholics, but a look at the percentages for different age groups shows a rapid change. Protestants outnumber Catholics only among those aged 40 and more. For those under 20 Catholics outnumber Protestants by at least 7% in every age group. For those under 5, by more than 12%:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland#/media/File:Religion_by_age_in_northern_ireland_2011.png
    Not in County Antrim, the largest county in Northern Ireland, which is still largely over 60% Protestant
    Well, of course some people might have the idea of redrawing the border, so we could have the United Kingdom of Great Britain and County Antrim.

    Or possibly the United Kingdom of England and County Antrim.
    I would have no problem with redrawing the boundaries of Northern Ireland so just County Antrim remains in the UK with the other Catholic majority Counties joining the Republic of Ireland
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.

    casino royale probably has the right approach on this one.
    The scenario is very different to TM time and I would expect public opinion would soar behind Boris if he achieves a deal and the media would have a field day with dissenters
    Hmmmm...Boris now has far too many enemies to achieve any kind of collective goodwill from those who dislike him...any Labour MP who ventures near would be vilified

    Toxic Boris has fucked the Tory party
    Vilified by whom? Their constituents? Probably not.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    I don't know whether Protestants are secularising faster than Catholics, but a look at the percentages for different age groups shows a rapid change. Protestants outnumber Catholics only among those aged 40 and more. For those under 20 Catholics outnumber Protestants by at least 7% in every age group. For those under 5, by more than 12%:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland#/media/File:Religion_by_age_in_northern_ireland_2011.png
    Not in County Antrim, the largest county in Northern Ireland, which is still largely over 60% Protestant
    Well, of course some people might have the idea of redrawing the border, so we could have the United Kingdom of Great Britain and County Antrim.

    Or possibly the United Kingdom of England and County Antrim.
    I would have no problem with redrawing the boundaries of Northern Ireland so just Country Antrim remains in the UK with the other Catholic majority Counties joining the Republic of Ireland
    Big of you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    edited October 2019
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    When I was at university the private school kids did way more drugs than the comprehensive school kids. Partly it was money, but I think they also were just more self-destructive than we were. We were grateful to be there (Oxbridge) whereas I think some of them felt they didn't deserve it, or perhaps they were just kicking back after years of high pressure parenting. Whatever the reason, no way am I setting my kids up for that.
    On your last point I disagree. People need to unwind. There are many recreational illegal drugs far less harmful than alcohol. If people want to go out and take an E once in a while I think that's fine, and I don't see why that makes them a failure. Certainly, no worse than getting drunk three or four times a week.
    Well said....dropping an E with a couple of beers re-watching much loved YouTube music videos- Stone Roses live in Blackpool- (with headphones)- not the most terrible way to pass an evening for a fella left alone for the odd weekend...

    And how do you classify failure? Don't they say that politics always ends up in failure.

    Foxy is normally quite sensible...obviously something has got his goat
    In my twenties I was quite blase about others using drugs, though not very bothered myself. I have seen too much carnage since amongst users, both patients and friends, in their own lives and the impact on others. I am no longer so blase. I favour decriminalisation and treatment rather than legalisation.
  • TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Like the WA is fine so long as the major flaws of the WA are fixed.

    That's like building a ship but then people refuse to get it into water as they can see there's a major gaping hole in the hull beneath what would be the waterline which is a huge structural issue and you keep repeating louder and louder to them that we need a ship, and they say we're not putting that ship into water until that structural hole in the hull gets fixed.

    Now it looks like the hole in the hull might get fixed and you say "ah but that looks like the original ship".

    Sure it does, it will be the same ship just with the hole addressed. That was the idea all along! Only a very few extremists were saying the entire ship needed to be redesigned, most just said address this one issue and we'll be happy.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited October 2019

    Still nothing from Number 10 or Foster. They must be in talks. Can’t be a complete non-starter.

    Another billion for NI? What's a billion or two these days?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Barnesian said:

    justin124 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Well that is what happened - three times - to May's Deal.
    But that was then, this is now and the hiatus of Brexit.

    Who knows but if a deal is achieved it will be a brave mp who votes against
    I think Johnson has caved on a backstop customs union for NI with any vote to leave the backstop after four years requiring the consent of both the nationalist and the unionist community either in Stormont or a referendum.
    How would that be done? By a supermajority?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    While I accept I am a boring young fogie, as if my hobby of rambling on about political minutiae was not making that clear, I do consider myself fortunate for never being tempted to delve into drug use. Far better ways to enjoy oneself, for all you and I hold different views on the level of concern there should be regarding weed.

    And some people honestly seem to be quite prideful about all the drugs they did back in the day (usually prefaced with an immodest 'I'm not proud of this, but...').
    Recreational drug taking is undeniably a young person's game......it takes copious amounts of energy to recover...

    But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

    After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.
    And what would an odd blowout in middle age be like for after a non hedonistic youth? Your premise is based on enjoying it as a youth, so enjoying it later in life, just less often. I'm not as puritanical as some of today's millenials, but hedonistic I was not. Maybe a joint would be nice relaxer when I hit my 40s, but I'm not sold on the prospect, and while I am relaxed about drug liberalisation, a lot of casual drug users seem to assume that most people are desperate to join them.
    Fair enough and good response...
  • tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.

    casino royale probably has the right approach on this one.
    The scenario is very different to TM time and I would expect public opinion would soar behind Boris if he achieves a deal and the media would have a field day with dissenters
    Hmmmm...Boris now has far too many enemies to achieve any kind of collective goodwill from those who dislike him...any Labour MP who ventures near would be vilified

    Toxic Boris has fucked the Tory party
    No you're wrong. Labour have spent so long screeching not against a "Tory deal" now but about how horrendous no deal is, that if they reject a deal the EU is happy with now they will look absolutely ridiculous. You can't cry blue murder for months about no deal, then reject a last minute deal that would avoid no deal.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I’ve made this point a lot recently, sorry it must be boring... but if Heidi Allen and co, elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result, vote down the deal having switched parties and not held a by election... we are saying this is ok?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I think a deal is likely now to be honest.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    isam said:

    I’ve made this point a lot recently, sorry it must be boring... but if Heidi Allen and co, elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result, vote down the deal having switched parties and not held a by election... we are saying this is ok?

    Whatever remain minded MPs do or say is ok. Apparently.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.

    casino royale probably has the right approach on this one.
    The scenario is very different to TM time and I would expect public opinion would soar behind Boris if he achieves a deal and the media would have a field day with dissenters
    Hmmmm...Boris now has far too many enemies to achieve any kind of collective goodwill from those who dislike him...any Labour MP who ventures near would be vilified

    Toxic Boris has fucked the Tory party
    No you're wrong. Labour have spent so long screeching not against a "Tory deal" now but about how horrendous no deal is, that if they reject a deal the EU is happy with now they will look absolutely ridiculous. You can't cry blue murder for months about no deal, then reject a last minute deal that would avoid no deal.
    Labour rejected a previous deal the EU were happy with.

    But I agree, for both Labour and the ERG/DUP, it's going to be harder to reject a deal this time.

    I was happy with May's Deal tbh, although I'm a Remainer; if Boris agrees a deal similar to May's let's just get it done and move on.
  • Chris said:

    Barnesian said:

    justin124 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Well that is what happened - three times - to May's Deal.
    But that was then, this is now and the hiatus of Brexit.

    Who knows but if a deal is achieved it will be a brave mp who votes against
    I think Johnson has caved on a backstop customs union for NI with any vote to leave the backstop after four years requiring the consent of both the nationalist and the unionist community either in Stormont or a referendum.
    How would that be done? By a supermajority?
    There are provisions in Stormont for votes to need “cross-community support”. Interesting in light of the stats above about increasing secularism but they are there.

    One would think one thing Johnson and Varadkar can agree on is the desirability of a deal that forces the DUP and the Shinners to both support the return of Stormont.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Byronic said:

    Question: how many people on here want Boris to fail?

    I’m guessing hardcore Corbynites, who don’t care about Brexit. Any others? Any ultra Remainers who still prefer Remain, even at the risk of No Deal? Or maybe some BXPers?

    I want him to fail because I always want the opposite of what the right wing shitbags on here want.
    It seems rather sad that you take as a point of pride defining yourself entirely by opposition to other people.
    Being a good Scouser, I pay almost no interest in the football, though I'm told a couple of local teams are quite popular [1]

    Many years ago, a work colleague who supported the blue team was asked what he would prefer over the weekend. Either both Liverpool and Everton WON, or both Liverpool and Everton LOST. He took a few seconds before answering, "I'd rather both lose."

    [1] No laughing at the back about Everton.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    isam said:

    I’ve made this point a lot recently, sorry it must be boring... but if Heidi Allen and co, elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result, vote down the deal having switched parties and not held a by election... we are saying this is ok?

    About the same as if ERG hardliners or the DUP vote it down, I'd say.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    I agree it would be difficult with a referendum to ensure you have consent from the two communities. And how about the substantial minority who don't identify with either community. So it is more likely to be Stormont. Both sides have to agree for the backstop to end.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:



    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.

    When I was at university the private school kids did way more drugs than the comprehensive school kids. Partly it was money, but I think they also were just more self-destructive than we were. We were grateful to be there (Oxbridge) whereas I think some of them felt they didn't deserve it, or perhaps they were just kicking back after years of high pressure parenting. Whatever the reason, no way am I setting my kids up for that.
    On your last point I disagree. People need to unwind. There are many recreational illegal drugs far less harmful than alcohol. If people want to go out and take an E once in a while I think that's fine, and I don't see why that makes them a failure. Certainly, no worse than getting drunk three or four times a week.
    Well said....dropping an E with a couple of beers re-watching much loved YouTube music videos- Stone Roses live in Blackpool- (with headphones)- not the most terrible way to pass an evening for a fella left alone for the odd weekend...

    And how do you classify failure? Don't they say that politics always ends up in failure.

    Foxy is normally quite sensible...obviously something has got his goat
    In my twenties I was quite blase about others using drugs, though not very bothered myself. I have seen too much carnage since amongst users, both patients and friends, in their own lives and the impact on others. I am no longer so blase. I favour decriminalisation and treatment rather than legalisation.
    A sensible attitude - and of course a well regulated market would do much both to limit underage use, and to help ensure users would at least know what they were using.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    Foxy said:

    I like doing the ironing. It’s the one thing in the week which starts in disorder and ends tangibly in order.

    I enjoy ironing. Indeed we have the ironing board permanently up, and iron my shirt freshly every morning.
    I absolutely hate it. And I’m crap at it.

    I contract it out.
    Just don't do it. Hang your work shirts up straight away, and they'll usually be fine.
    Everything else, forget about.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    I think there's been a sea change. I think Trump's previously had an air of invulnerability, but it's fallen away. I think many of us, pro- or anti-Trump have had this idea that he's capable of brazening his way through anything. But I don't feel that way any more. He's vulnerable to this whole thing spiralling way out of his control. We might be about to see him become very isolated.

    A bit of me wonders if there isn’t some 5-10% of him flouncing off in a huff (armed with a pardon).
    There's no pardon for the crimes that will be prosecuted at the state level. Presidential pardons only come in the federal flavour. Trump's going to end his life either in jail or, before that, under investigation.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    Labour need to be seen to be trying to the last to help the Remain cause .

    So they’ll whip for a confirmatory vote which will probably lose , a section of Labour MPs will vote for the deal and it gets over the line.

    I suppose the interest going forward if a deal is approved is what goes into the election manifestos.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Foxy said:

    I like doing the ironing. It’s the one thing in the week which starts in disorder and ends tangibly in order.

    I enjoy ironing. Indeed we have the ironing board permanently up, and iron my shirt freshly every morning.
    I absolutely hate it. And I’m crap at it.

    I contract it out.
    Just don't do it. Hang your work shirts up straight away, and they'll usually be fine.
    Everything else, forget about.
    I iron occasionally, and am quite good at it - but the approach you suggest is my general rule.
  • kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    No need to worry. The 'backstop' is not in fact an 'annexation'.

    The regulatory and customs alignment will not introduce anything new, let alone revolutionary new, to NI.
    It is a 'standstill agreement' to keep the status quo. NI will remain the same 'millstone around your neck' that it ever was.
    It merely prevents the weight of the millstone from doubling or trebling, as would otherwise have been the case economically, not to speak of the potential costs, economically and otherwise, that reviving the troubles in any form would have caused.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    nico67 said:


    I suppose the interest going forward if a deal is approved is what goes into the election manifestos.

    As far as the UK's relationship with the EU, my guess:

    Tories: Defend the UK's interests during future negotiations

    LD's: Rejoin the EU

    Labour: ????????
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Saw Nandy on Question Time.

    She seemed to be blaming Michael Green (and ultimately Boris) for the fact that she voted against May's WA three times thus raising thr risk of No Deal?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Saw Nandy on Question Time.

    She seemed to be blaming Michael Green (and ultimately Boris) for the fact that she voted against May's WA three times thus raising thr risk of No Deal?

    She is either a deeply confused or deeply dishonest person.
    SunnyJim said:

    nico67 said:


    I suppose the interest going forward if a deal is approved is what goes into the election manifestos.

    As far as the UK's relationship with the EU, my guess:

    Tories: Defend the UK's interests during future negotiations

    LD's: Rejoin the EU

    Labour: ????????
    Labour: Horrible Tory Brexit is done, dont let them make it even worse.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Well that is what happened - three times - to May's Deal.
    But that was then, this is now and the hiatus of Brexit.

    Who knows but if a deal is achieved it will be a brave mp who votes against
    But we faced a 29th March deadline which MPs ignored. The new 31st deadline is self imposed by Johnson given the likely willingness of the EU to grant a further extension.
This discussion has been closed.