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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The impeachment polling’s getting worse for Trump

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    edited October 2019

    Foxy said:

    I like doing the ironing. It’s the one thing in the week which starts in disorder and ends tangibly in order.

    I enjoy ironing. Indeed we have the ironing board permanently up, and iron my shirt freshly every morning.
    A 'Just in Time' ironing policy. A true enthusiast would do a full week's worth on a Sunday evening.
    PRN in medical terms!

    My feeling is that for the perfect shirt, it has to be freshly ironed and worn still warm. Delicious.

    The other issue is that if you put away ironing, as often as not it needs re-ironing before wear. If you fold the clothes warm from the dryer, or straight from the line, the creases come out easily.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Republican nominees still strongly support Trump I fail to see why he will not still be the Republican nominee in 2020 and given the Senate is still in GOP hands I doubt he will be successfully impeached either given any Republican Senator who tries to do so will face a primary challenge

    If the case against Trump is compelling enough, why should senators retreat into mindless partisanship?
    Good joke, made all the funnier though lack of emojis.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Foxy said:

    I like doing the ironing. It’s the one thing in the week which starts in disorder and ends tangibly in order.

    I enjoy ironing. Indeed we have the ironing board permanently up, and iron my shirt freshly every morning.
    I absolutely hate it. And I’m crap at it.

    I contract it out.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Remainers like myself are in a difficult position .

    The two characters I most despise from the EU ref campaign are Johnson and Cummings .

    It would give me an enormous pleasure to see both fail , the problem is this isn’t a scenario where their failure guarantees redemption for us Remainers .

    And redemption as we may see it ignores the stark reality of where we are .

    We can’t wish away the last three years , we can’t ignore the fact the vote happened , we can’t ignore the huge polarization and division in the country .

    I think it’s fair to say that as no deal became the apparent only true Brexit that the Remainer wing reacted by going the other way .Where any compromise was now no longer possible .

    And for a large part of those three years Remainers have felt completely ignored and that any deal would essentially not even offer a few scraps of comfort .

    We can bemoan this and can feel very angry and refuse to accept the reality , there are now very few good options left .

    Does anyone seriously think either an election before Brexit or another EU ref won’t be a ghastly affair where the toxicity and division won’t reach even further down into the cesspit .

    What’s left of the country after that ?

    The reality as I see it is the only way forward is with a deal and I do think it’s now best for both the EU and the UK .

    I think Remainers need to accept that on Brexit itself, this battle is now over , Brexit will and should happen .

    I’d much rather now have a debate over the future relationship , this is an area that is less toxic and doesn’t need to be one where original Remainers and Leavers can’t find some common ground .

    I expect some Remainers in here won’t be that impressed by my acceptance that Brexit will happen .

    I’m very sad about Brexit, I think it’s a historic mistake but I fear much worse with either a no deal or another EU referendum .

    Both I think would be catastrophic on different levels . Sorry if this sounds hyperbolic but that’s where I’m at after a lot of thought .

    My own position is a lot simpler.

    - Most people I meet do not really care that much about Brexit (I travel around a fair bit)

    - Things are going to be a mess no matter what happens

    - I believe that staying in generates less economic uncertainity than Leaving

    From here, things may be unsettled, but taking the economic factor out just removes extra mess and possibly helps add stability in jobs and employment at a time when recession is looking more and more likely.

    What most people want is a quiet life, food on the table, the kids in school and a job to go to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Republican nominees still strongly support Trump I fail to see why he will not still be the Republican nominee in 2020 and given the Senate is still in GOP hands I doubt he will be successfully impeached either given any Republican Senator who tries to do so will face a primary challenge

    The Senate acts as a jury, does it not? If the case against Trump is compelling enough, why should senators retreat into mindless partisanship?
    As mindless partisanship is what ensures Republican voters vote for them in primary races and general elections and provides their 6 figure pay cheque!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Johnson was just the warm-up man.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Remainers like myself are in a difficult position .

    The two characters I most despise from the EU ref campaign are Johnson and Cummings .

    It would give me an enormous pleasure to see both fail , the problem is this isn’t a scenario where their failure guarantees redemption for us Remainers .

    And redemption as we may see it ignores the stark reality of where we are .

    We can’t wish away the last three years , we can’t ignore the fact the vote happened , we can’t ignore the huge polarization and division in the country .

    I think it’s fair to say that as no deal became the apparent only true Brexit that the Remainer wing reacted by going the other way .Where any compromise was now no longer possible .

    And for a large part of those three years Remainers have felt completely ignored and that any deal would essentially not even offer a few scraps of comfort .

    We can bemoan this and can feel very angry and refuse to accept the reality , there are now very few good options left .

    Does anyone seriously think either an election before Brexit or another EU ref won’t be a ghastly affair where the toxicity and division won’t reach even further down into the cesspit .

    What’s left of the country after that ?

    The reality as I see it is the only way forward is with a deal and I do think it’s now best for both the EU and the UK .

    I think Remainers need to accept that on Brexit itself, this battle is now over , Brexit will happen .

    I’d much rather now have a debate over the future relationship , this is an area that is less toxic and doesn’t need to be one where original Remainers and Leavers can’t find some common ground .

    I expect some Remainers in here won’t be that impressed by my acceptance that Brexit will happen .

    I’m very sad about Brexit, I think it’s a historic mistake but I fear much worse with either a no deal or another EU referendum .

    Both I think would be catastrophic on different levels . Sorry if this sounds hyperbolic but that’s where I’m at after a lot of thought .

    Bravo. You’re right, of course. That is where we are. We either accept an unhappy compromise, or we proceed to a much much worse place, with no guarantee of our survival as a nation. It’s that grim.

    I just hope hardcore Leavers in the Tory party (and Ulster) have the wits to make the sane moral journey as you.
    Thanks I’ve given this a lot of thought. I just can’t see any other way out that can stop the country descending into a very dark place . I really fear for what forces could be unleashed if we don’t leave . A no deal is terrible and so is another vote . The only way is a deal.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Republican nominees still strongly support Trump I fail to see why he will not still be the Republican nominee in 2020 and given the Senate is still in GOP hands I doubt he will be successfully impeached either given any Republican Senator who tries to do so will face a primary challenge

    The Senate acts as a jury, does it not? If the case against Trump is compelling enough, why should senators retreat into mindless partisanship?
    Because, sadly, mindless partisanship is all America has left these days.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    nichomar said:

    In response to the two big personal questions of the evening:

    1. I'm with Alastair on ironing, although I,'m useless at it. Despite being useless, it's very satisfying as long as you limit yourself to extremely easy challenges, like handkerchiefs.

    2. I've never known a single person who to my knowledge took cocaine or heroin, or even marijuana since student days.

    I have known people who have taken Cocaine, MDMA (E), Speed, Marijuana (skunk), Ephedrine, Magic Mushrooms Poppers and Acid. I don't know anyone who does Drugs now as all the people I knew were at University who did that sort of thing. I sometimes smell a whiff of Marijuana when I am walking in local towns and am amazed at the brazen act of smoking it in public in the day time! Generally I walk past someone smoking it once or twice a month. I don't think drugs should be legalised or decriminalised as they are the road to ruin...
    It’s a difficult subject but criminalization is not working and attempts to legislate are rapidly being overtaken by chemical developments. An honest debate about how legislation and control may be better would be welcome. Let’s not forget the real future problem is not going to be illegal drugs but prescription narcotics any solutions?
    Indeed, some painkillers for instance can be very difficult to induce cessation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Dura_Ace said:

    Byronic said:

    Question: how many people on here want Boris to fail?

    I’m guessing hardcore Corbynites, who don’t care about Brexit. Any others? Any ultra Remainers who still prefer Remain, even at the risk of No Deal? Or maybe some BXPers?

    I want him to fail because I always want the opposite of what the right wing shitbags on here want.
    Your driving seems very right wing.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Funny how some people are praising the alleged no detail Johnson deal regardless of what it is before it is even explained deal because they want a boris (whatever the fuck it is deal) so that boris can win the next election to lead us to the newsunlit uplands of Singapore north.

    I was talking to someone this afternoon, who thought No Deal would mean a two year transition period. How do these people get these ideas? They were put right by another member of the gathering in that No Deal means No Transition!
    Given some former Cabinet Members have stated the same thing I'm not surprised others believe it too.
    Also at the moment even with a deal the transition ends on 31/12 2020 not a lot of time to do a lot ofbwork
    Extensible to 31/12/2022 though isn't it?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    In response to the two big personal questions of the evening:

    1. I'm with Alastair on ironing, although I'm useless at it. Despite being useless, it's very satisfying as long as you limit yourself to extremely easy challenges, like handkerchiefs.

    2. I've never known a single person who to my knowledge took cocaine or heroin, or even marijuana since student days.

    Thankfully I've always been out of the loop re cocaine/heroin, but I certainly know people who smoke weed, and our neighbours grow it in the loft. The smell of people smoking weed seems almost unavoidable these days whenever I'm out and about in Birmingham.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    I think there's been a sea change. I think Trump's previously had an air of invulnerability, but it's fallen away. I think many of us, pro- or anti-Trump have had this idea that he's capable of brazening his way through anything. But I don't feel that way any more. He's vulnerable to this whole thing spiralling way out of his control. We might be about to see him become very isolated.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Although you will never know if the previous secondary moderns were any better. Grammar schools were brilliant for those like me who went to them, secondary moderns were not a great success
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF
  • isam said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_P said:

    Outside of TV I have never actually aeen anyone use Cocaine.

    All the people I know who use cocaine work in TV too.

    Oh, not what you meant...
    One of the best comments I ever read in a newspaper went along the lines of: Most of the coke users I know, buy organic food and fairtrade coffee & chocolate, but they happily give up their money to support vicious, corrupt and violent organised crime ruining the lives of millions in developing countries.
    Peter Hitchens makes this point a lot.

    Almost all my friends do it here and there... I tend to think it makes interesting characters boring, and boring characters think they're interesting
    The other point is what they are actually taking. A friend of mine ran a forensic lab, which used to analyse samples of drugs from nightclubs. The results were horrifying: at best they had highly inaccurate doses of the claimed active ingredients like Ecstasy. Usually they were cut with dodgy fillers, sometimes they had no active ingredient; sometimes they contained actively poisonous stuff.

    And no doubt the young people taking this stuff woulld have been obsessive about avoiding non-naturall ingredients in their food.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    nico67 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Remainers like myself are in a difficult position .

    The two characters I most despise from the EU ref campaign are Johnson and Cummings .

    It would give me an enormous pleasure to see both fail , the problem is this isn’t a scenario where their failure guarantees redemption for us Remainers .

    And redemption as we may see it ignores the stark reality of where we are .

    We can’t wish away the last three years , we can’t ignore the fact the vote happened , we can’t ignore the huge polarization and division in the country .

    I think it’s fair to say that as no deal became the apparent only true Brexit that the Remainer wing reacted by going the other way .Where any compromise was now no longer possible .

    And for a large part of those three years Remainers have felt completely ignored and that any deal would essentially not even offer a few scraps of comfort .

    We can bemoan this and can feel very angry and refuse to accept the reality , there are now very few good options left .

    Does anyone seriously think either an election before Brexit or another EU ref won’t be a ghastly affair where the toxicity and division won’t reach even further down into the cesspit .

    What’s left of the country after that ?

    The reality as I see it is the only way forward is with a deal and I do think it’s now best for both the EU and the UK .

    I think Remainers need to accept that on Brexit itself, this battle is now over , Brexit will happen .

    I’d much rather now have a debate over the future relationship , this is an area that is less toxic and doesn’t need to be one where original Remainers and Leavers can’t find some common ground .

    I expect some Remainers in here won’t be that impressed by my acceptance that Brexit will happen .

    I’m very sad about Brexit, I think it’s a historic mistake but I fear much worse with either a no deal or another EU referendum .

    Both I think would be catastrophic on different levels . Sorry if this sounds hyperbolic but that’s where I’m at after a lot of thought .

    Bravo. You’re right, of course. That is where we are. We either accept an unhappy compromise, or we proceed to a much much worse place, with no guarantee of our survival as a nation. It’s that grim.

    I just hope hardcore Leavers in the Tory party (and Ulster) have the wits to make the sane moral journey as you.
    Thanks I’ve given this a lot of thought. I just can’t see any other way out that can stop the country descending into a very dark place . I really fear for what forces could be unleashed if we don’t leave . A no deal is terrible and so is another vote . The only way is a deal.
    I have a solution. A Jeremy Corbyn Government takes the Brexit supporting media into State Ownership and stops them mentioning Brexit ever again! :smiley:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    1. Life is generally too short to do one's own ironing but there is a certain calm ritual about it in certain situations that become part of the activity for which you are doing the ironing.

    2. I have been in milieu where all kinds of drugs have been taken. It never appealed to me frankly and not because I am a control freak (I'm not). Then again I did smoke Kent cigarettes and was therefore the coolest person alive for six months when I was in my late teens. Not touched a ciggie since which, as HMF is essentially built around the concept of a fag break, was hard at times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Regardless of whether their talking achieved anything, and even though I like many personally worry a great deal about political leaders just chuntering away without professional advisers and experts around, I find it slightly encouraging that they spent so long speaking to one another without others around. For all the drawbacks that can occur, and perhaps they just spent the time reading from their briefs as joked in Yes Minister, a small naiive part of me still believes that our actual leaders are supposed to be the ones who knuckle down and decide things, and who should on occasion need to get in a room one and one on behalf of their countries and hash it out. The actual people supposed to be leading, and not just faceless technocrats and officials.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just feel that base solidify. What's fools the Dems be. Such an obvious trap so thoroughly walked into.

    In other news

    https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1182386464677662720?s=19
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_P said:

    Outside of TV I have never actually aeen anyone use Cocaine.

    All the people I know who use cocaine work in TV too.

    Oh, not what you meant...
    One of the best comments I ever read in a newspaper went along the lines of: Most of the coke users I know, buy organic food and fairtrade coffee & chocolate, but they happily give up their money to support vicious, corrupt and violent organised crime ruining the lives of millions in developing countries.
    Peter Hitchens makes this point a lot.

    Almost all my friends do it here and there... I tend to think it makes interesting characters boring, and boring characters think they're interesting
    The other point is what they are actually taking. A friend of mine ran a forensic lab, which used to analyse samples of drugs from nightclubs. The results were horrifying: at best they had highly inaccurate doses of the claimed active ingredients like Ecstasy. Usually they were cut with dodgy fillers, sometimes they had no active ingredient; sometimes they contained actively poisonous stuff.

    And no doubt the young people taking this stuff woulld have been obsessive about avoiding non-naturall ingredients in their food.
    Quite likely.

    I can’t believe I ever had the courage/was stupid enough to take drugs. I wouldn’t touch them now for any money.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    rpjs said:

    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Funny how some people are praising the alleged no detail Johnson deal regardless of what it is before it is even explained deal because they want a boris (whatever the fuck it is deal) so that boris can win the next election to lead us to the newsunlit uplands of Singapore north.

    I was talking to someone this afternoon, who thought No Deal would mean a two year transition period. How do these people get these ideas? They were put right by another member of the gathering in that No Deal means No Transition!
    Given some former Cabinet Members have stated the same thing I'm not surprised others believe it too.
    Also at the moment even with a deal the transition ends on 31/12 2020 not a lot of time to do a lot ofbwork
    Extensible to 31/12/2022 though isn't it?
    Not seen any evidence that it is, anyone actually knows?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    And what is your experience of lots of public schools?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    nico67 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Remainers like myself are in a difficult position .

    The two characters I most despise from the EU ref campaign are Johnson and Cummings .

    It would give me an enormous pleasure to see both fail , the problem is this isn’t a scenario where their failure guarantees redemption for us Remainers .

    And redemption as we may see it ignores the stark reality of where we are .

    We can’t wish away the last three years , we can’t ignore the fact the vote happened , we can’t ignore the huge polarization and division in the country .

    I think it’s fair to say that as no deal became the apparent only true Brexit that the Remainer wing reacted by going the other way .Where any compromise was now no longer possible .

    And for a large part of those three years Remainers have felt completely ignored and that any deal would essentially not even offer a few scraps of comfort .

    We can bemoan this and can feel very angry and refuse to accept the reality , there are now very few good options left .

    Does anyone seriously think either an election before Brexit or another EU ref won’t be a ghastly affair where the toxicity and division won’t reach even further down into the cesspit .

    What’s left of the country after that ?

    The reality as I see it is the only way forward is with a deal and I do think it’s now best for both the EU and the UK .

    I think Remainers need to accept that on Brexit itself, this battle is now over , Brexit will happen .

    I’d much rather now have a debate over the future relationship , this is an area that is less toxic and doesn’t need to be one where original Remainers and Leavers can’t find some common ground .

    I expect some Remainers in here won’t be that impressed by my acceptance that Brexit will happen .

    I’m very sad about Brexit, I think it’s a historic mistake but I fear much worse with either a no deal or another EU referendum .

    Both I think would be catastrophic on different levels . Sorry if this sounds hyperbolic but that’s where I’m at after a lot of thought .

    Bravo. You’re right, of course. That is where we are. We either accept an unhappy compromise, or we proceed to a much much worse place, with no guarantee of our survival as a nation. It’s that grim.

    I just hope hardcore Leavers in the Tory party (and Ulster) have the wits to make the sane moral journey as you.
    Thanks I’ve given this a lot of thought. I just can’t see any other way out that can stop the country descending into a very dark place . I really fear for what forces could be unleashed if we don’t leave . A no deal is terrible and so is another vote . The only way is a deal.
    You and I seem to have exactly the same views on this topic. You will now be assailed as being a fake Remainer and Leaver plant, for what it's worth.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    There will be no tory majority unless we have a deal

    And the DUP are only 10 votes
  • Noo said:

    I think there's been a sea change. I think Trump's previously had an air of invulnerability, but it's fallen away. I think many of us, pro- or anti-Trump have had this idea that he's capable of brazening his way through anything. But I don't feel that way any more. He's vulnerable to this whole thing spiralling way out of his control. We might be about to see him become very isolated.

    A bit of me wonders if there isn’t some 5-10% of him flouncing off in a huff (armed with a pardon).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    And what is your experience of lots of public schools?
    Children of my colleagues, and their friends.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    I’m not sure. The DUP will be under horrendous pressure to agree, not least from the vast majority of the NI population. It feels different this time. Everyone is staring at No Deal and blanching


    If the DUP yield then the ERG will surrender and then the deal probably passes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    On topic, almost all moves on Brexit (either way) are exaggerated, so I’m no more excited about the news today than I was worried about the runes yesterday.

    It’s probably mainly noise and the moves either way very small, with a massive amount of inflected rhetoric to amplify them, plus geometric media reactions off the back of that.

    Plus, over the last year, I have mastered zen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    So Boris gets the deal. The DUP are on board with a NI only soft Brexit. Then what? It doesn't solve anything for car manufacturers ( previous thread), fishermen, farmers, pharma, financial services, users of Kent roads, third country arrangements. The EU doesn't care too much. It's got most of the stuff it wants from the Withdrawal Agreement. Everything else is still to be negotiated.

    It would be interesting to know what percentage of the general population realise that if we leave with a deal, that's only the start of the real Brexit negotiations.
    <5% I'd guess.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    I’m not sure. The DUP will be under horrendous pressure to agree, not least from the vast majority of the NI population. It feels different this time. Everyone is staring at No Deal and blanching


    If the DUP yield then the ERG will surrender and then the deal probably passes.
    One wonders if Boris might threaten the DUP with the SoSfNI suddenly deciding that the time is ripe for a border poll.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    And what is your experience of lots of public schools?
    Children of my colleagues, and their friends.
    All talking about drugs in lots of public schools? Unlikely.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    Indeed, it takes a terrible toll on peoples lives. I don't understand the Libertarian view point of letting people do this to themselves. It has always struck me as being idiotic. I think public schools have the pathways for drug takers to rejuvenate their students prospects. I suppose I have never really thought about drugs in public schools as I did not attend one myself. But Prince Harry for instance was in the papers about smoking this or that at one stage! You don't get more establishment than that! Whoever sold it to him must have been pretty brazen!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    While I accept I am a boring young fogie, as if my hobby of rambling on about political minutiae was not making that clear, I do consider myself fortunate for never being tempted to delve into drug use. Far better ways to enjoy oneself, for all you and I hold different views on the level of concern there should be regarding weed.

    And some people honestly seem to be quite prideful about all the drugs they did back in the day (usually prefaced with an immodest 'I'm not proud of this, but...').
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.

    That would label most of the liberal middle classes as failures en masse....


  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    Irish Catholics are secularising too. And very fast. The church is dying south of the border.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    kle4 said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Republican nominees still strongly support Trump I fail to see why he will not still be the Republican nominee in 2020 and given the Senate is still in GOP hands I doubt he will be successfully impeached either given any Republican Senator who tries to do so will face a primary challenge

    If the case against Trump is compelling enough, why should senators retreat into mindless partisanship?
    Good joke, made all the funnier though lack of emojis.
    Trump is arguably a liability to the GOP. A senate trial is an opportunity to be rid if him, something a primary challenge could never do.
  • Chris said:

    Johnson was just the warm-up man.
    In the same way that the ERG seamlessly became to be regarded as a major opposition party, it’s amazing how Cummings is now regarded as Britain’s ruler.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I agree, but that a Tory majority is necessary for a deal to get through is probably right, even if getting that majority is not as certain as some believe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rpjs said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    I’m not sure. The DUP will be under horrendous pressure to agree, not least from the vast majority of the NI population. It feels different this time. Everyone is staring at No Deal and blanching


    If the DUP yield then the ERG will surrender and then the deal probably passes.
    One wonders if Boris might threaten the DUP with the SoSfNI suddenly deciding that the time is ripe for a border poll.
    And therefore if the Borisgraph going 'Gods, NI is such a bloody pain and is stopping Brexit' is part of amping up the pressure on them?

    As we know, the DUP love to look weak.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    kle4 said:

    Regardless of whether their talking achieved anything, and even though I like many personally worry a great deal about political leaders just chuntering away without professional advisers and experts around, I find it slightly encouraging that they spent so long speaking to one another without others around. For all the drawbacks that can occur, and perhaps they just spent the time reading from their briefs as joked in Yes Minister, a small naiive part of me still believes that our actual leaders are supposed to be the ones who knuckle down and decide things, and who should on occasion need to get in a room one and one on behalf of their countries and hash it out. The actual people supposed to be leading, and not just faceless technocrats and officials.
    I notice Johnson had flushed cheeks. I think he is the one who took the risks, who caved.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    If NI is anything like the West of Scotland, identifying as Protestant is tribal rather than anything to do with church or religion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    I’m not sure. The DUP will be under horrendous pressure to agree, not least from the vast majority of the NI population. It feels different this time. Everyone is staring at No Deal and blanching


    If the DUP yield then the ERG will surrender and then the deal probably passes.
    The DUP will not yield as 77% of Unionists in Northern Ireland prefer No Deal to the backstop even if 60% of Northern Ireland voters as a whole prefer the backstop to No Deal

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/09/lord-ashcroft-my-northern-ireland-polling-six-out-of-ten-voters-accept-the-backstop-but-only-one-in-five-unionists-do-so.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I agree, but that a Tory majority is necessary for a deal to get through is probably right, even if getting that majority is not as certain as some believe.
    Yes for that is our party politics but I would be interested to hear from @NickPalmer if his original and accurate no more than five or six Lab MPs who would support a Cons deal has changed, given where we are.
  • TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    PeterC said:

    kle4 said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Republican nominees still strongly support Trump I fail to see why he will not still be the Republican nominee in 2020 and given the Senate is still in GOP hands I doubt he will be successfully impeached either given any Republican Senator who tries to do so will face a primary challenge

    If the case against Trump is compelling enough, why should senators retreat into mindless partisanship?
    Good joke, made all the funnier though lack of emojis.
    Trump is arguably a liability to the GOP. A senate trial is an opportunity to be rid if him, something a primary challenge could never do.
    The mainstream of the party never wanted him to begin with but he is still beloved by masses of Republican voters - remove him, even if the evidence is cast iron, and enough of those voters will ensure the party is punished, I have little doubt.

    If they were absolutely certain he'd lose and take them down with him anyway, maybe just then, but is that really likely even then? Always easier to not act.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Alistair said:

    Just feel that base solidify. What's fools the Dems be. Such an obvious trap so thoroughly walked into.

    In other news

    https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1182386464677662720?s=19

    His base has always been solid at about 42%. It is not enough.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    When I was at university the private school kids did way more drugs than the comprehensive school kids. Partly it was money, but I think they also were just more self-destructive than we were. We were grateful to be there (Oxbridge) whereas I think some of them felt they didn't deserve it, or perhaps they were just kicking back after years of high pressure parenting. Whatever the reason, no way am I setting my kids up for that.
    On your last point I disagree. People need to unwind. There are many recreational illegal drugs far less harmful than alcohol. If people want to go out and take an E once in a while I think that's fine, and I don't see why that makes them a failure. Certainly, no worse than getting drunk three or four times a week.
  • It's telling that at least a couple of posters have started their posts with 'on topic' to then go on about Brexit, while the subject of the header is..
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    nichomar said:

    rpjs said:

    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Funny how some people are praising the alleged no detail Johnson deal regardless of what it is before it is even explained deal because they want a boris (whatever the fuck it is deal) so that boris can win the next election to lead us to the newsunlit uplands of Singapore north.

    I was talking to someone this afternoon, who thought No Deal would mean a two year transition period. How do these people get these ideas? They were put right by another member of the gathering in that No Deal means No Transition!
    Given some former Cabinet Members have stated the same thing I'm not surprised others believe it too.
    Also at the moment even with a deal the transition ends on 31/12 2020 not a lot of time to do a lot ofbwork
    Extensible to 31/12/2022 though isn't it?
    Not seen any evidence that it is, anyone actually knows?
    The draft WA at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf has at art. 132 "Notwithstanding Article 126, the Joint Committee may, before 1 July 2020, adopt a single
    decision extending the transition period up to [31 December 20XX]." I think it was said at the time that 2022 was the most likely date that would be put in there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited October 2019

    On topic, almost all moves on Brexit (either way) are exaggerated, so I’m no more excited about the news today than I was worried about the runes yesterday.

    It’s probably mainly noise and the moves either way very small, with a massive amount of inflected rhetoric to amplify them, plus geometric media reactions off the back of that.

    Plus, over the last year, I have mastered zen.

    I was thinking something similar myself.

    One day, No Deal appears inevitable, the next we're nailed-on to extend, then suddenly a deal is almost done... and then it isn't.

    Thanks goodness four our strong and stable government, eh? :wink:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.

    casino royale probably has the right approach on this one.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    While I accept I am a boring young fogie, as if my hobby of rambling on about political minutiae was not making that clear, I do consider myself fortunate for never being tempted to delve into drug use. Far better ways to enjoy oneself, for all you and I hold different views on the level of concern there should be regarding weed.

    And some people honestly seem to be quite prideful about all the drugs they did back in the day (usually prefaced with an immodest 'I'm not proud of this, but...').
    Recreational drug taking is undeniably a young person's game......it takes copious amounts of energy to recover...

    But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

    After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.
    This is the “no” Parliament after all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    There will be no tory majority unless we have a deal

    And the DUP are only 10 votes
    Not necessarily as some Leavers will vote Brexit Party rather than support any concession to the EU given the Brexit Party is the party of No Deal.

    To win the next general election the Tories need a Brexit Deal or No Deal platform, not a Deal only platform or a No Deal only platform
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Byronic said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    Irish Catholics are secularising too. And very fast. The church is dying south of the border.
    The fastest growth for the Catholic church is in Africa and Latin America, hence there is now an Argentine, non European Pope
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    I don't know whether Protestants are secularising faster than Catholics, but a look at the percentages for different age groups shows a rapid change. Protestants outnumber Catholics only among those aged 40 and more. For those under 20 Catholics outnumber Protestants by at least 7% in every age group. For those under 5, by more than 12%:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland#/media/File:Religion_by_age_in_northern_ireland_2011.png
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    There will be no tory majority unless we have a deal

    And the DUP are only 10 votes
    Not necessarily as some Leavers will vote Brexit Party rather than support any concession to the EU given the Brexit Party is the party of No Deal.

    To win the next general election the Tories need a Brexit Deal or No Deal platform, not a Deal only platform or a No Deal only platform
    They can still no deal at the end of the transition period.
  • kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.

    casino royale probably has the right approach on this one.
    The scenario is very different to TM time and I would expect public opinion would soar behind Boris if he achieves a deal and the media would have a field day with dissenters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    Regardless without a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and probably no Brexit at all
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rpjs said:

    nichomar said:

    rpjs said:

    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Funny how some people are praising the alleged no detail Johnson deal regardless of what it is before it is even explained deal because they want a boris (whatever the fuck it is deal) so that boris can win the next election to lead us to the newsunlit uplands of Singapore north.

    I was talking to someone this afternoon, who thought No Deal would mean a two year transition period. How do these people get these ideas? They were put right by another member of the gathering in that No Deal means No Transition!
    Given some former Cabinet Members have stated the same thing I'm not surprised others believe it too.
    Also at the moment even with a deal the transition ends on 31/12 2020 not a lot of time to do a lot ofbwork
    Extensible to 31/12/2022 though isn't it?
    Not seen any evidence that it is, anyone actually knows?
    The draft WA at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf has at art. 132 "Notwithstanding Article 126, the Joint Committee may, before 1 July 2020, adopt a single
    decision extending the transition period up to [31 December 20XX]." I think it was said at the time that 2022 was the most likely date that would be put in there.
    I seem to recall the sarcastic worries that '20xx' allowed a transition up to 2099, and it should ahve been '202x' to limit it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Maybe it'll be known as the Treaty of Bootle.

    A woman once called me and asked if I could photograph her daughter who had just won a competition. 'What competition was that' I asked.

    'Miss Bootle Rose' she answered
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kle4 said:

    rpjs said:

    nichomar said:

    rpjs said:

    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Funny how some people are praising the alleged no detail Johnson deal regardless of what it is before it is even explained deal because they want a boris (whatever the fuck it is deal) so that boris can win the next election to lead us to the newsunlit uplands of Singapore north.

    I was talking to someone this afternoon, who thought No Deal would mean a two year transition period. How do these people get these ideas? They were put right by another member of the gathering in that No Deal means No Transition!
    Given some former Cabinet Members have stated the same thing I'm not surprised others believe it too.
    Also at the moment even with a deal the transition ends on 31/12 2020 not a lot of time to do a lot ofbwork
    Extensible to 31/12/2022 though isn't it?
    Not seen any evidence that it is, anyone actually knows?
    The draft WA at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf has at art. 132 "Notwithstanding Article 126, the Joint Committee may, before 1 July 2020, adopt a single
    decision extending the transition period up to [31 December 20XX]." I think it was said at the time that 2022 was the most likely date that would be put in there.
    I seem to recall the sarcastic worries that '20xx' allowed a transition up to 2099, and it should ahve been '202x' to limit it.
    And specify which calendar!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.
    May sold her deal astonishingly badly, tbh.

    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    The Benn Act clearly states that he, or whoever is PM at that point, would have to ask for an A50 extension if a deal is agreed but voted down by the HoC.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.

    casino royale probably has the right approach on this one.
    I would expect public opinion would soar behind Boris if he achieves a deal
    So that's another reason for parliamentarians to say no to it. I mean, he's already ahead in the polls as it is!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is a deal - if, if, if, if - a lot of good things will be unlocked

    Investment will surge
    The £ will soar
    Property prices will ascend, especially in London

    And so on. All of this could lead to a virtuous circle of rising confidence meaning higher growth, implying more confidence, and so on

    PM Boris might enjoy a little Brexit boom.

    IF

    There won't be, the DUP will say 'NO, NEVER, NEVER!' and thus no Deal.

    As I have said it will take a Tory majority to get a Deal the EU will agree as the DUP will always veto a Northern Ireland only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement either without GB staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
    There will be no tory majority unless we have a deal

    And the DUP are only 10 votes
    Not necessarily as some Leavers will vote Brexit Party rather than support any concession to the EU given the Brexit Party is the party of No Deal.

    To win the next general election the Tories need a Brexit Deal or No Deal platform, not a Deal only platform or a No Deal only platform
    They can still no deal at the end of the transition period.
    By then free trade agreement talks with the EU will be well underway anyway
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Well that is what happened - three times - to May's Deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Scott_P said:
    What would Trump have to do to finally fall?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Cutting to the chase

    twitter.com/R_McCormack/status/1182393851161579541?s=20

    Boris probably wants to keep up. Trump threw the kurds under a bus. Boris only has Northern Ireland to chuck under the Routemaster....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    edited October 2019


    May sold her deal astonishingly badly, tbh.

    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    No. The MPs that rejected it would be utterly done for.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    Regardless without a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and probably no Brexit at all
    You are wrong. A Brexit Party majority would see Brexit.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    While I accept I am a boring young fogie, as if my hobby of rambling on about political minutiae was not making that clear, I do consider myself fortunate for never being tempted to delve into drug use. Far better ways to enjoy oneself, for all you and I hold different views on the level of concern there should be regarding weed.

    And some people honestly seem to be quite prideful about all the drugs they did back in the day (usually prefaced with an immodest 'I'm not proud of this, but...').
    Recreational drug taking is undeniably a young person's game......it takes copious amounts of energy to recover...

    But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

    After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.
    I once read a quote in the Sun Newspaper by David Bellamy who said he once tried Cocaine but could not understand how anyone could become addicted to it given the headache he suffered the next day! It still makes me laugh even now. David Bellamy of course stood against John Major in 1997, though he must have been under the influence of something if he thought he could win Huntingdon!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Chris said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows the shallowness of much Union support, sadly. It's that, more than simply nationalist support, which means the UK Union is on such shaky legs.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    Lord knows I've been frustrated by NI at times - a lot of times - but for me it is part of my country, and I'd rather it be a millstone around my neck than not a part of my country. That probably makes me a sucker were I to negotiate with any of the other UK countries, but that's that.
    Demographic change, though.

    "At the 2011 census, 41.5% of the population identified as Protestant/non-Roman Catholic Christian, 41% as Roman Catholic, and 0.8% as non-Christian, while 17% identified with no religion or did not state one."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion
    Is that demographic change, or Protestants just secularising faster than Catholics?
    I don't know whether Protestants are secularising faster than Catholics, but a look at the percentages for different age groups shows a rapid change. Protestants outnumber Catholics only among those aged 40 and more. For those under 20 Catholics outnumber Protestants by at least 7% in every age group. For those under 5, by more than 12%:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland#/media/File:Religion_by_age_in_northern_ireland_2011.png
    Not in County Antrim, the largest county in Northern Ireland, which is still largely over 60% Protestant
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/business/status/1182403332486369280

    What would Trump have to do to finally fall?
    It is the American version of Brexit. He can do whatever he like as long as he entertains the prejudices of his support base.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Why would that work this time and not when May did it? Granted, things are more desperate now and Boris is still a better salesman (and for now has the support of the spartans), but for a year the idea has been people will be relieved at a deal and MPs would not vote it down, but they keep doing it.
    May sold her deal astonishingly badly, tbh.

    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    The Benn Act clearly states that he, or whoever is PM at that point, would have to ask for an A50 extension if a deal is agreed but voted down by the HoC.
    I did not think we would get a revised deal as I did not think there was will on either side to see that happen, so I will give Boris and the EU credit if they do come up with one, even if it is extremely superficially different. But in terms of the will of parliament, 'Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected [by] MPs' seems like a good reason for remainers, revokers, and labour deal leavers to continue to say no.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    Regardless without a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and probably no Brexit at all
    You are wrong. A Brexit Party majority would see Brexit.
    Well that is true but a Brexit Party majority with Farage as PM guarantees No Deal, so you still need a Tory majority for a Brexit Deal to pass the Commons without another referendum attached.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Interesting that Jeremy Hunt has been showing a tiny bit of leg today as well.
  • justin124 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    I think we are overlooking the theatre of a possible agreement with the EU at the Council meeting with Boris coming back to Parliament on the Saturday with an agreed deal, having shared a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk, and the likely widespread countywide relief, and then mps turn it down

    It seems incomprehensible that they would be so stupid but not impossible
    Well that is what happened - three times - to May's Deal.
    But that was then, this is now and the hiatus of Brexit.

    Who knows but if a deal is achieved it will be a brave mp who votes against
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    The Benn Act clearly states that he, or whoever is PM at that point, would have to ask for an A50 extension if a deal is agreed but voted down by the HoC.

    I see it the other way.

    If there is a deal agreed it will be all over the press and media as Brexit finally resolved and just needing rubber stamping by parliament.

    The public aren't going to accept opposition MPs continuing to play games by voting down a deal.

    If they do then the goal is wide open for the government to resign and then vote down the alternatives after Corbyn has signed Labour's surrender letter.

    Drag them to the ballot box kicking and screaming and let the voters deliver the final hammer blow.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    When I was at university the private school kids did way more drugs than the comprehensive school kids. Partly it was money, but I think they also were just more self-destructive than we were. We were grateful to be there (Oxbridge) whereas I think some of them felt they didn't deserve it, or perhaps they were just kicking back after years of high pressure parenting. Whatever the reason, no way am I setting my kids up for that.
    On your last point I disagree. People need to unwind. There are many recreational illegal drugs far less harmful than alcohol. If people want to go out and take an E once in a while I think that's fine, and I don't see why that makes them a failure. Certainly, no worse than getting drunk three or four times a week.
    Well said....dropping an E with a couple of beers re-watching much loved YouTube music videos- Stone Roses live in Blackpool- (with headphones)- not the most terrible way to pass an evening for a fella left alone for the odd weekend...

    And how do you classify failure? Don't they say that politics always ends up in failure.

    Foxy is normally quite sensible...obviously something has got his goat
  • TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    All roads lead to something that looks very much like the WA.

    Anyone who does want a deal will need to promise not to say something like for the next 3 weeks if a deal is to be agreed and approved. Those no deal/hard brexiteers are easily spooked.

    I think it rather telling that HYUFD, a good bellwether of the extreme end of Tory opinion (which is the largest end) is not talking up the potential of a grand deal being reached here, is not spinning positive noises about it, but still maintaining that it will take a Tory majority to get any deal through. He is probably right.
    It is a brave or foolish conservative party that believes a majority is nailed on.
    Regardless without a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and probably no Brexit at all
    You are wrong. A Brexit Party majority would see Brexit.
    Are you sure? The words “piss up” and “brewery” come to mind.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772


    May sold her deal astonishingly badly, tbh.

    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    No. The MPs that rejected it would be utterly done for.
    It is possible that the brutal way the whip was removed from the 21 Tories was designed as a massive warning to ERG as to what awaits them if they vote against a new deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Byronic said:

    That’s encouraging.

    My god, is Brexit actually gonna be resolved?

    I will open fifteen bottles of champagne if it is. Not from joy, but from relief. It will be like getting the all-clear after three years of chemo.
    Sounds like a waste of champagne; why not open three bottles and send the other case to me?
  • Lock him up, lock him up, lock him up....

  • May sold her deal astonishingly badly, tbh.

    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    No. The MPs that rejected it would be utterly done for.
    What would happen to them? Have their faces on The Mail’s front page beneath a ‘Traitors’ headline?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    The drug takers or former drug takers I've met who are the most messed up are ones who have used meth.

    Never met anyone but seeing the pictures in the newspapers of addicts is truly shocking. Their faces are hollowed out and cut. I actually have seen a heroin addict I went to school with feature in a local newspaper as a one man crime spree! I went to a comprehensive school with mixed intake. The lad in question hardly ever turned up to be fair and used to fight people when he did! Some people don't know how privileged they have been in going to selective or fee paying schools. They abolished Grammar schools where I lived as a lad and instead we had a comprehensive system. It was a dreadful experience and I used to be terrified at the end of the day walking home as people would attack you!
    Lots of Public schools are riddled with drugs in my experience. The combination of remote parents and too much money is a deadly one.

    There was a fair bit of hash, speed, acid and mushrooms at my comprehensive. Most got over it fairly quickly in their twenties, but those who didn't mostly wasted their lives.

    Anyone still using drugs at the age of 30 is almost always a failure.
    While I accept I am a boring young fogie, as if my hobby of rambling on about political minutiae was not making that clear, I do consider myself fortunate for never being tempted to delve into drug use. Far better ways to enjoy oneself, for all you and I hold different views on the level of concern there should be regarding weed.

    And some people honestly seem to be quite prideful about all the drugs they did back in the day (usually prefaced with an immodest 'I'm not proud of this, but...').
    Recreational drug taking is undeniably a young person's game......it takes copious amounts of energy to recover...

    But...you are not fortunate for not taking drugs....say that after you have dropped a couple of pills, and taken a few lines, and smoked some spliffs...

    After a very hedonistic youth, the odd blow out during one's middle age is really quite enjoyable.
    And what would an odd blowout in middle age be like for after a non hedonistic youth? Your premise is based on enjoying it as a youth, so enjoying it later in life, just less often. I'm not as puritanical as some of today's millenials, but hedonistic I was not. Maybe a joint would be nice relaxer when I hit my 40s, but I'm not sold on the prospect, and while I am relaxed about drug liberalisation, a lot of casual drug users seem to assume that most people are desperate to join them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited October 2019
    SunnyJim said:


    Boris would surely be utterly done for if he comes back having agreed a deal that then gets rejected MPs?

    The Benn Act clearly states that he, or whoever is PM at that point, would have to ask for an A50 extension if a deal is agreed but voted down by the HoC.

    I see it the other way.

    If there is a deal agreed it will be all over the press and media as Brexit finally resolved and just needing rubber stamping by parliament.

    The public aren't going to accept opposition MPs continuing to play games by voting down a deal.

    If they do then the goal is wide open for the government to resign and then vote down the alternatives after Corbyn has signed Labour's surrender letter.

    Drag them to the ballot box kicking and screaming and let the voters deliver the final hammer blow.
    Well, maybe... who knows.

    Let's see how much Boris concedes first and how close his deal (if he gets one) is to May's deal.
  • Still nothing from Number 10 or Foster. They must be in talks. Can’t be a complete non-starter.
This discussion has been closed.