Assumption: date set is 31/01/20 Condition: election is held.
The election has to be called ASAP, in my opinion to avoid Christmas / new year. November or December election.
Assumption 2 date 30/06/20 Condition election or referendum If Labour want to negotiation then hold a referendum as per policy the election is November or December to allow 6 months for referendum legislation and campaign.
In both of th above they are likely to support a Johnson 60% request for an election. Better for labour than having 14 days of Corbyn failing to get VOC. under FTPA.
So I disagree with the header unless the extention is beyond 30/06/20
And, to run counter to what most people think, Corbyn will out-perform in a General Election campaign. Like he did last time. He's really quite good on the hustings, whipping up fervour about things he's actually interested in. I doubt he'd win a majority but I'm fairly confident he will prevent a Con-DUP majority, ably assisted by the SNP, LibDems and BXP.
I looked in the dictionary, under naïve, and found this post.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
Maybe the explanation is that people aren't smoking as much as they used to.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
Suspect it will simply act as a barrier to people ditching the car for the train if you can’t have a sandwich and a can of beer.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"
As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
Boris has all the cards. 1. He's unscrupulous. 2. As PM he can offer Farage anything he wants. Ambassador to Washington? 3. Corbyn's people are from the 70's. Techniques have moved on 4. Cummings is perhaps the smartest salesperson in the land 5. All the significant press are in his corner 6. His press are uncritical to the point of acting as his mouthpiece 7. The Mail The Telegraph and The Sun will act as Johnson free-sheets for the length of the campaign 8. Corbyn lends himself to a negative campaign particulary in the hands of the above. There will be no holes barred. He will get the full Michael Foot treatment
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
They're got going to force the train companies to go vegan?
Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"
As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
Boris has all the cards. 1. He's unscrupulous. 2. As PM he can offer Farage anything he wants. Ambassador to Washington? 3. Corbyn's people are from the 70's. Techniques have moved on 4. Cummings is perhaps the smartest salesperson in the land 5. All the significant press are in his corner 6. His press are uncritical to the point of acting as his mouthpiece 7. The Mail The Telegraph and The Sun will act as Johnson free-sheets for the length of the campaign 8. Corbyn lends himself to a negative campaign particulary in the hands of the above. There will be no holes barred. He will get the full Michael Foot treatment
Yes but the Joker in that deck is Johnson himself and is totally unpredictable in what he is going to say. He’s a compulsive liar and will be caught out time and time again. Farage won’t go away even if the UK left on 31/10 and Johnson campaigned on no deal Farage would still say you can’t trust him he’s a pathological liar. His problem would be that should we have left no deal his tax avoiding mates will withdraw their cash from TBP as they will have achieved their objectives.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
In France you can immediately tell when a British cruise ship has arrived by the passengers. They look like a different species. And it's not just that cruises attract the slothful beacause ships from other countries dont have the same problem. The only competing country is the US. The alleyways and streets of the old town become unnavigable. A waitress in one of the bars said to me the other day she was surprised the ship didn't sink.
Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"
As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
Boris has all the cards. 1. He's unscrupulous. 2. As PM he can offer Farage anything he wants. Ambassador to Washington? 3. Corbyn's people are from the 70's. Techniques have moved on 4. Cummings is perhaps the smartest salesperson in the land 5. All the significant press are in his corner 6. His press are uncritical to the point of acting as his mouthpiece 7. The Mail The Telegraph and The Sun will act as Johnson free-sheets for the length of the campaign 8. Corbyn lends himself to a negative campaign particulary in the hands of the above. There will be no holes barred. He will get the full Michael Foot treatment
"has all the cards" That... that rings a bell from somewhere. I'm trying to remember how it all panned out.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
Maybe the explanation is that people aren't smoking as much as they used to.
Smoking and obesity are often correlated. Both are inversely related to social class.
The biggest difference is activity levels. Little outdoor play for children, more sitting on the sofa snacking playing on screens.
Well, that's one view. A different view would be that it's optimistic to see such a fantasist in that position and be confident that it's possible that her "getting trade deals done" could outweigh the loss of economic activity caused by losing all those other 'trade deals'.
Anyone who goes around calling themselves 'The Truss' must have some form of megalomania. I think I'll wait for the reality. Everyone's had enough of Leavers' daydreams.
Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"
As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
Boris has all the cards. 1. He's unscrupulous. 2. As PM he can offer Farage anything he wants. Ambassador to Washington? 3. Corbyn's people are from the 70's. Techniques have moved on 4. Cummings is perhaps the smartest salesperson in the land 5. All the significant press are in his corner 6. His press are uncritical to the point of acting as his mouthpiece 7. The Mail The Telegraph and The Sun will act as Johnson free-sheets for the length of the campaign 8. Corbyn lends himself to a negative campaign particulary in the hands of the above. There will be no holes barred. He will get the full Michael Foot treatment
1 True but this may not be an electoral advantage. His Tory leadership campaign was characterised by an avoidance of scrutiny and an inability to answer hard questions. 2 Possibly but I doubt Farage is open to that kind of offer - he is an oppositionist par excellence and is happiest when he is ranting and railing against something - taking responsibility for something would seriously damage his brand. 3 True to some extent but Labour has more than twice as many footsoldiers as any other party and their ground campaign in 2017 was unexpectedly good. 4 Cummings' reputation is based entirely on the referendum. Everything else he has touched has been a disaster - his strategy for Johnson's premiership is in ruins and he has been wrongfooted by both the opposition and the EU at every turn. 5 The press is less important than it used to be. It was in May's corner in 2017, more stridently so in the case of the Mail which has toned down since Dacre left. 6 See 5. 7 Maybe but their circulations are falling and this factor did not help May. 8 Corbyn has had the full Michael Foot treatment on a daily basis since 2015. It is in the price. There can be nothing new to throw at him. Johnson, on the other hand, has many skeletons in the cupboard and the cupboard has not been cleaned out thoroughly before. His character will be an election issue and it is unlikely to be a positive, especially with women. .
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
I thought you didn't have a TV?!
Why?
I don't watch it much. Newsnight and the odd film and documentary mostly.
Anyone who goes around calling themselves 'The Truss' must have some form of megalomania. I think I'll wait for the reality. Everyone's had enough of Leavers' daydreams.
Anyone who goes around calling themselves "The Truss" clearly has a sense of humour and a refreshing lack of self-importance.....
Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"
As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
Boris has all the cards. 1. He's unscrupulous. 2. As PM he can offer Farage anything he wants. Ambassador to Washington? 3. Corbyn's people are from the 70's. Techniques have moved on 4. Cummings is perhaps the smartest salesperson in the land 5. All the significant press are in his corner 6. His press are uncritical to the point of acting as his mouthpiece 7. The Mail The Telegraph and The Sun will act as Johnson free-sheets for the length of the campaign 8. Corbyn lends himself to a negative campaign particulary in the hands of the above. There will be no holes barred. He will get the full Michael Foot treatment
“No holes barred”? I’m don’t think even the British tabloids would stoop to violating Corbyn to that extent.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
In France you can immediately tell when a British cruise ship has arrived by the passengers. They look like a different species. And it's not just that cruises attract the slothful beacause ships from other countries dont have the same problem. The only competing country is the US. The alleyways and streets of the old town become unnavigable. A waitress in one of the bars said to me the other day she was surprised the ship didn't sink.
Of course, French woman are never going to be obese - because they expend so many calories with all that nervous energy worrying their husband will finally dump them for his mistress.
Anyone who goes around calling themselves 'The Truss' must have some form of megalomania. I think I'll wait for the reality. Everyone's had enough of Leavers' daydreams.
Anyone who goes around calling themselves "The Truss" clearly has a sense of humour and a refreshing lack of self-importance.....
She doesn't sound that lacking in self-importance - portraying herself as the latter-day Marco Polo.
On the childhood obesity stats, I think a small number are wrongly included - a friend's child I know got classified but he's all muscle and is charging through opposition rugby teams at centre...
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
In France you can immediately tell when a British cruise ship has arrived by the passengers. They look like a different species. And it's not just that cruises attract the slothful beacause ships from other countries dont have the same problem. The only competing country is the US. The alleyways and streets of the old town become unnavigable. A waitress in one of the bars said to me the other day she was surprised the ship didn't sink.
Of course, French woman are never going to be obese - because they expend so many calories with all that nervous energy worrying their husband will finally dump them for his mistress.
If we are playing the stereotype game....
It might be a stereotype but it’s true. The average British BMI is the second highest in the EU after Ireland. Given we have a much higher population than Ireland it means we have a lot more fat people.
On the childhood obesity stats, I think a small number are wrongly included - a friend's child I know got classified but he's all muscle and is charging through opposition rugby teams at centre...
Does anybody know who's behind the fake Britain Elects poll yesterday or why they did it (apart from winding up some posters on here)?
"There was no poll released today by @OpiniumResearch or tweeted by us. Figures you may be seeing come from a fake account attempting to impersonate us and put out false data."
Dunno but it partly worked because the figures were believable.
... only if you wanted to believe it. From memory weren't both the Tories and TBP up and by about 7 points between them?
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
I thought you didn't have a TV?!
Why?
I don't watch it much. Newsnight and the odd film and documentary mostly.
Or drive. You were telling us all about the imminent extinction of our species and we therefore assumed that you would lead by example.
Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"
As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
Boris has all the cards. 1. He's unscrupulous. 2. As PM he can offer Farage anything he wants. Ambassador to Washington? 3. Corbyn's people are from the 70's. Techniques have moved on 4. Cummings is perhaps the smartest salesperson in the land 5. All the significant press are in his corner 6. His press are uncritical to the point of acting as his mouthpiece 7. The Mail The Telegraph and The Sun will act as Johnson free-sheets for the length of the campaign 8. Corbyn lends himself to a negative campaign particulary in the hands of the above. There will be no holes barred. He will get the full Michael Foot treatment
1 True but this may not be an electoral advantage. His Tory leadership campaign was characterised by an avoidance of scrutiny and an inability to answer hard questions. 2 Possibly but I doubt Farage is open to that kind of offer - he is an oppositionist par excellence and is happiest when he is ranting and railing against something - taking responsibility for something would seriously damage his brand. 3 True to some extent but Labour has more than twice as many footsoldiers as any other party and their ground campaign in 2017 was unexpectedly good. 4 Cummings' reputation is based entirely on the referendum. Everything else he has touched has been a disaster - his strategy for Johnson's premiership is in ruins and he has been wrongfooted by both the opposition and the EU at every turn. 5 The press is less important than it used to be. It was in May's corner in 2017, more stridently so in the case of the Mail which has toned down since Dacre left. 6 See 5. 7 Maybe but their circulations are falling and this factor did not help May. 8 Corbyn has had the full Michael Foot treatment on a daily basis since 2015. It is in the price. There can be nothing new to throw at him. Johnson, on the other hand, has many skeletons in the cupboard and the cupboard has not been cleaned out thoroughly before. His character will be an election issue and it is unlikely to be a positive, especially with women. .
Don't wish to be a pedant but Cummings is not a salesman. Modern sales is about win-win and product advocacy. Cummings is a propaganda man, a conman of the worst type.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
In France you can immediately tell when a British cruise ship has arrived by the passengers. They look like a different species. And it's not just that cruises attract the slothful beacause ships from other countries dont have the same problem. The only competing country is the US. The alleyways and streets of the old town become unnavigable. A waitress in one of the bars said to me the other day she was surprised the ship didn't sink.
Of course, French woman are never going to be obese - because they expend so many calories with all that nervous energy worrying their husband will finally dump them for his mistress.
If we are playing the stereotype game....
French women are a bit less likely to be overweight than the UK or EU average. UK men are pretty near the EU average. Maltese and Balts are the worst.
Except France has now made clear it will not allow an extension without a general election.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
Another_richard: you think that Farage wants Brexit defeated and Corbyn as PM??
Yes because Farage is only concerned about Farage.
A Boris majority and Brexit achieved would totally sideline Farage.
Yes Farage wants Boris to extend and fail to deliver Brexit, the Brexit Party to overtake the Tories again, Corbyn to become PM of a minority government to reverse Brexit then the Brexit Party to win the general election after that so Farage becomes PM to finally deliver Brexit
Except France has now made clear it will not allow an extension without a general election.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
Voting in a dark, snowy December general election will have the helpful tag-line
"This election was brought to you by demand of the French. Show them your gratitude...."
Except France has now made clear it will not allow an extension without a general election.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
Voting in a dark, snowy December general election will have the helpful tag-line
"This election was brought to you by demand of the French. Show them your gratitude...."
I thought the British people were crying out for an election? Now you're saying they'll be looking to blame someone for having one? Confusing.
And, to run counter to what most people think, Corbyn will out-perform in a General Election campaign. Like he did last time. He's really quite good on the hustings, whipping up fervour about things he's actually interested in. I doubt he'd win a majority but I'm fairly confident he will prevent a Con-DUP majority, ably assisted by the SNP, LibDems and BXP.
Last time Corbyn got masses of Remainer tactical.votes, this time he won't and they will go LD. The Corbyn core vote is only 20 to 25% as current polls show
Is that the dumb quack that wants to ban eating and drinking on trains ?
She seems to be an expert in puritanical nannying.
Unusually, I'm half with you. However, to clarify she suggested banning food and drink (other than water) on urban public transport, rather than long distance trains.
I would support that from an antisocial behaviour point of view – snacking on tubes and buses is gross and teenagers just litter the places up with food wrappers, so I'd support a ban for those reasons (just as I supported Boris' ban on booze on London transport which has worked well)
Excellent analysis from Mr Meeks. Thank you. One comment though: It is in no-one's interest to carry on with government and parliament in its present stasis. But it is in no faction's interest to have a GE unless that faction can actually win it. Factions and parties of course coincide less than usual which complicates things. The current minority government has no power to call an election under the FTPA, and not even the power (almost certainly) to change the law to call an election. They haven't got the numbers. There is no faction or party that looks as if it can win a majority, and the nearest possibility is the Conservative/Leave party/faction - the very people who have no power to call one. So why should anyone lift a finger to enable to GE in the foreseeable future when there is no reason to think they can win, and every reason to think that the present government/party/faction will run into trouble.
So it is hard to see an end date to this nonsense.
And, to run counter to what most people think, Corbyn will out-perform in a General Election campaign. Like he did last time. He's really quite good on the hustings, whipping up fervour about things he's actually interested in. I doubt he'd win a majority but I'm fairly confident he will prevent a Con-DUP majority, ably assisted by the SNP, LibDems and BXP.
Last time Corbyn got masses of Remainer tactical.votes, this time he won't and they will go LD. The Corbyn core vote is only 20 to 25% as current polls show
Labour was the beneficiary of Remainer votes? So that means they are right to blocking Brexit. You know, if it's what their voters wanted...
So why did Hammond spend all of the May years supporting the gibberish arguments about "sunny uplands"?
I cannot recall Hammond saying much. As I recall, he was kept away from the media during Mrs May's Premiership because he did not enthuse about Brexit and how fabulous it was going to be.
Does anybody know who's behind the fake Britain Elects poll yesterday or why they did it (apart from winding up some posters on here)?
"There was no poll released today by @OpiniumResearch or tweeted by us. Figures you may be seeing come from a fake account attempting to impersonate us and put out false data."
Dunno but it partly worked because the figures were believable.
You might as well make up your own poll numbers – they are no more or less useful than the rank garbage churned out weekly by the 'real' thing.
Excellent analysis from Mr Meeks. Thank you. One comment though: It is in no-one's interest to carry on with government and parliament in its present stasis. But it is in no faction's interest to have a GE unless that faction can actually win it. Factions and parties of course coincide less than usual which complicates things. The current minority government has no power to call an election under the FTPA, and not even the power (almost certainly) to change the law to call an election. They haven't got the numbers. There is no faction or party that looks as if it can win a majority, and the nearest possibility is the Conservative/Leave party/faction - the very people who have no power to call one. So why should anyone lift a finger to enable to GE in the foreseeable future when there is no reason to think they can win, and every reason to think that the present government/party/faction will run into trouble.
Without a general election or EUref2 there will be no extension, France would veto it as they made clear yesterday, so Boris delivers Brexit on 31st October
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
Going without food for 13 hours overnight is not much of a stretch. Finish dinner at 7pm, have breakfast at 8am.
But you have the possibility of doing otherwise, which actually makes it easier to bear.
N.B. No-one has suggested banning the dining car on the Caledonian Sleeper. Classic PB.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
A buffet car on journeys of more than a couple of hours is reasonable. It is the constant snacking on buses and tube that she dislikes.
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
Suspect it will simply act as a barrier to people ditching the car for the train if you can’t have a sandwich and a can of beer.
And, to run counter to what most people think, Corbyn will out-perform in a General Election campaign. Like he did last time. He's really quite good on the hustings, whipping up fervour about things he's actually interested in. I doubt he'd win a majority but I'm fairly confident he will prevent a Con-DUP majority, ably assisted by the SNP, LibDems and BXP.
Lib Dems are easily bought off, couple of ministerial cars and some gee gaws and they will sell their souls
Except France has now made clear it will not allow an extension without a general election.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
Voting in a dark, snowy December general election will have the helpful tag-line
"This election was brought to you by demand of the French. Show them your gratitude...."
Yeah, it really won't, except in your wildest wet dreams.
Is that the dumb quack that wants to ban eating and drinking on trains ?
She seems to be an expert in puritanical nannying.
Unusually, I'm half with you. However, to clarify she suggested banning food and drink (other than water) on urban public transport, rather than long distance trains.
I would support that from an antisocial behaviour point of view – snacking on tubes and buses is gross and teenagers just litter the places up with food wrappers, so I'd support a ban for those reasons (just as I supported Boris' ban on booze on London transport which has worked well)
Strike out "teenagers". I've seen many a young adult and middle-aged person discard their rubbish casually. Old people, less so.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
Hmmm referendum talk is it? A few points. Getting hold of the order paper may not be as straightforward - there is no no deal emergency if the extension request has gone in. It would require multiple days control, it's not a simple bill like Benn. The Tories would be pushing for a GE and cancel referendum, Brexit position. It will absolutely guarantee very few leavers vote for any of the party's party to it The government could resign before its law forcing an election. Nobody seriously believes May's deal vs remain is anything more than a blatant attempt to revoke and cancel Brexit It requires the EU to extend beyond their next budget probably
What time asre we expecting Boris and Leo to have their Mexican Standof on the banks of the Mersey?
Imagine if it was like the tree-way standoff in The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. Boris with his cigarillo, Varadker with his pocket watch, and Junker with his (er. not sure. Bottle?). Or maybe I have them in the wrong order.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
“Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide”
I don't disagree but Trump remember was elected on an 'America First' agenda.
From his perspective now IS have been defeated there is no need to keep risking US servicemens lives defending Kurdish territory from Turkish strikes even if morally the US might still have an obligation to the Kurds.
Plus where are the British and French forces defending the Kurds?
Is that the dumb quack that wants to ban eating and drinking on trains ?
She seems to be an expert in puritanical nannying.
Unusually, I'm half with you. However, to clarify she suggested banning food and drink (other than water) on urban public transport, rather than long distance trains.
I would support that from an antisocial behaviour point of view – snacking on tubes and buses is gross and teenagers just litter the places up with food wrappers, so I'd support a ban for those reasons (just as I supported Boris' ban on booze on London transport which has worked well)
Strike out "teenagers". I've seen many a young adult and middle-aged person discard their rubbish casually. Old people, less so.
Except France has now made clear it will not allow an extension without a general election.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
Not the telegraph article can you provide a link to the French government statement saying this please.
On the childhood obesity stats, I think a small number are wrongly included - a friend's child I know got classified but he's all muscle and is charging through opposition rugby teams at centre...
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
“Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide”
They did decide.
Yes. They decided "We will go for that vague outline of a proposal". What a pity nobody knows what it means...
Except France has now made clear it will not allow an extension without a general election.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
Voting in a dark, snowy December general election will have the helpful tag-line
"This election was brought to you by demand of the French. Show them your gratitude...."
I thought the British people were crying out for an election? Now you're saying they'll be looking to blame someone for having one? Confusing.
The compulsion of Brexiteers to have their cake and eat it goes deep.
@HYUFD the Lib Dems are appealing to Remainers and those who feel they were lied to by the Cummings disinformation campaign. They don’t care about your frothers.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
“Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide”
They did decide.
There is no caveat emptor in politics. If we don't like the the rubbish we've been sold by the campaigners, we've every right to dump that vision and choose a different one. The British people now want to remain in the EU. They regret their decision and they want to change it before it's too late.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
“Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide”
They did decide.
Yes. They decided "We will go for that vague outline of a proposal". What a pity nobody knows what it means...
Our PM and the EU agreed on a suitable interpretation of what it meant. Do you really think people would be taking to the streets in anger had MPs, elected on a ticket to respect the result, had voted that through?
Except France has now made clear it will not allow an extension without a general election.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
Voting in a dark, snowy December general election will have the helpful tag-line
"This election was brought to you by demand of the French. Show them your gratitude...."
And, to run counter to what most people think, Corbyn will out-perform in a General Election campaign. Like he did last time. He's really quite good on the hustings, whipping up fervour about things he's actually interested in. I doubt he'd win a majority but I'm fairly confident he will prevent a Con-DUP majority, ably assisted by the SNP, LibDems and BXP.
Last time Corbyn got masses of Remainer tactical.votes, this time he won't and they will go LD. The Corbyn core vote is only 20 to 25% as current polls show
Labour was the beneficiary of Remainer votes? So that means they are right to blocking Brexit. You know, if it's what their voters wanted...
More Remainers are now voting LD than Labour as the LDs have moved to back Revoke unlike Labour
I can’t guarantee the sun will rise tomorrow morning. It probably will but I can’t guarantee it. If it doesn’t there may be deaths. Peoples lives are at risk.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
“Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide”
They did decide.
There is no caveat emptor in politics. If we don't like the the rubbish we've been sold by the campaigners, we've every right to dump that vision and choose a different one. The British people now want to remain in the EU. They regret their decision and they want to change it before it's too late.
Remain MPs don’t want to leave, that’s all we know.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
“Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide”
They did decide.
There is no caveat emptor in politics. If we don't like the the rubbish we've been sold by the campaigners, we've every right to dump that vision and choose a different one. The British people now want to remain in the EU. They regret their decision and they want to change it before it's too late.
Remain MPs don’t want to leave, that’s all we know.
I don't disagree but Trump remember was elected on an 'America First' agenda.
From his perspective now IS have been defeated there is no need to keep risking US servicemens lives defending Kurdish territory from Turkish strikes even if morally the US might still have an obligation to the Kurds.
Plus where are the British and French forces defending the Kurds?
I don't disagree but Trump remember was elected on an 'America First' agenda.
From his perspective now IS have been defeated there is no need to keep risking US servicemens lives defending Kurdish territory from Turkish strikes even if morally the US might still have an obligation to the Kurds.
Plus where are the British and French forces defending the Kurds?
And yet the tangerine moron was citing the Kurds' non-presence at the Normandy landings as some kind of justifcation, an event that was the very antithesis of America First.
The chances of Trump having a rational, thought out position on this are between zero and fuck all, though I guess that reflects the world view of his base pretty well.
Our PM and the EU agreed on a suitable interpretation of what it meant. Do you really think people would be taking to the streets in anger had MPs, elected on a ticket to respect the result, had voted that through?
The PM and the EU agreed, but for many it was the wrong kind of Leave.
If the referendum had been (say) Remain or Leave to EEA then the instruction to Parliament would have been clear and the govts job would have been to make that transition as painless as possible.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
“Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide”
They did decide.
To let parliament make its mind up so as that has not been possible, plus we are all more informed than we were in 2016, we need to ask you a refined question.
1. I can't see either a December or January election anymore. This isn't 1910. People start thinking about Christmas in September (certainly the shops do) and by December everyone is in Christmas mood now. No one, but no one, will want an election or a campaign during Christmas. So both December and January are out. 2. Likewise February is unlikely unless its end of February. 3. So I think its either November (28th?) or March 2020. 4. I don't think the average Conservative or Labour MP really wants an election. There are too many banana skins on route to be reasonably sure of keeping your job. For the CONS, all the need is a poor campaign, Brexit party hammering at them day and night and suddenly they finish on 25% and lose 150 seats. For Labour, all they need is for the Lib Dems to hammer them as the party of REMAIN, and Corbyn can't work his magic a second time, and they finish on 25%, and lose 100 seats. Hell, BOTH could happen. How long ago were those polls with four parties all in the low 20s? Could happen. 5. Never underestimate the average MP wanting to keep their job more than anything. Look at O'Mara. How many times has he 'resigned' now? 6. Never underestimate the love of can kicking. The EU isn't the only organisation that loves to kick the can. If the EU gives us a June 2020 extension, I'm quite sure Parliament won't think about it until next March. If they give us till December 2020, Parliament will forget all about it till this time next year.
Having said all that, the problem at the moment is that we have a Government that are so far in 'the red' in terms of majority they can't do anything. Can we really limp on for six months (or more) with nothing happening (YES! I have a friend who insists the less government does, the better!)?
The remain solution to 'nobody knew what they were voting for' seems to be to offer a vote between a discredited deal that has been rejected 3 times and leaves us locked in a backstop indefinitely or what they want. Genius.
Comments
A Boris majority and Brexit achieved would totally sideline Farage.
Condition: election is held.
The election has to be called ASAP, in my opinion to avoid Christmas / new year. November or December election.
Assumption 2 date 30/06/20
Condition election or referendum
If Labour want to negotiation then hold a referendum as per policy the election is November or December to allow 6 months for referendum legislation and campaign.
In both of th above they are likely to support a Johnson 60% request for an election. Better for labour than having 14 days of Corbyn failing to get VOC. under FTPA.
So I disagree with the header unless the extention is beyond 30/06/20
Junk food culture is killing the young. Watching TV street shots of the Seventies and Eighties shows how obese we have become over just a few decades.
1. He's unscrupulous.
2. As PM he can offer Farage anything he wants. Ambassador to Washington?
3. Corbyn's people are from the 70's. Techniques have moved on
4. Cummings is perhaps the smartest salesperson in the land
5. All the significant press are in his corner
6. His press are uncritical to the point of acting as his mouthpiece
7. The Mail The Telegraph and The Sun will act as Johnson free-sheets for the length of the campaign
8. Corbyn lends himself to a negative campaign particulary in the hands of the above. There will be no holes barred. He will get the full Michael Foot treatment
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1182199962991509505
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1181821220704198656
It's an insult to those people who actually live in countries that aren't free.
"45 years."
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1182207692313649152
That... that rings a bell from somewhere. I'm trying to remember how it all panned out.
The biggest difference is activity levels. Little outdoor play for children, more sitting on the sofa snacking playing on screens.
A different view would be that it's optimistic to see such a fantasist in that position and be confident that it's possible that her "getting trade deals done" could outweigh the loss of economic activity caused by losing all those other 'trade deals'.
2 Possibly but I doubt Farage is open to that kind of offer - he is an oppositionist par excellence and is happiest when he is ranting and railing against something - taking responsibility for something would seriously damage his brand.
3 True to some extent but Labour has more than twice as many footsoldiers as any other party and their ground campaign in 2017 was unexpectedly good.
4 Cummings' reputation is based entirely on the referendum. Everything else he has touched has been a disaster - his strategy for Johnson's premiership is in ruins and he has been wrongfooted by both the opposition and the EU at every turn.
5 The press is less important than it used to be. It was in May's corner in 2017, more stridently so in the case of the Mail which has toned down since Dacre left.
6 See 5.
7 Maybe but their circulations are falling and this factor did not help May.
8 Corbyn has had the full Michael Foot treatment on a daily basis since 2015. It is in the price. There can be nothing new to throw at him. Johnson, on the other hand, has many skeletons in the cupboard and the cupboard has not been cleaned out thoroughly before. His character will be an election issue and it is unlikely to be a positive, especially with women.
.
I don't watch it much. Newsnight and the odd film and documentary mostly.
That means, due to the time difference, I may be offering a race tip without knowing what the grid is.
Hmm.
If we are playing the stereotype game....
It sounds like a barmy idea to me.
https://www.euronews.com/2019/05/09/which-country-has-the-highest-average-bmi-in-europe
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Overweight_and_obesity_-_BMI_statistics#Obesity_in_the_EU:_gender_differences
It is a pan European issue, and indeed pan global, even in developing countries.
So either the Commons votes for a general election in late November or early December and France and the EU agree an extension or it does not and assuming the EU rejects the Boris plan we go to No Deal on 31st October.
The only other possibility is the Commons votes for EUref2 to get the extension but only 280 MPs voted for extension in the indicative votes
"This election was brought to you by demand of the French. Show them your gratitude...."
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1182207332371107840
The Corbyn core vote is only 20 to 25% as current polls show
I would support that from an antisocial behaviour point of view – snacking on tubes and buses is gross and teenagers just litter the places up with food wrappers, so I'd support a ban for those reasons (just as I supported Boris' ban on booze on London transport which has worked well)
So it is hard to see an end date to this nonsense.
Yeah, it really won't, except in your wildest wet dreams.
Were I French I would simply say that since the last extension was wasted, another one would only be granted on the basis that there is a referendum to decide between leaving on the basis of the WA or Remaining.
I would have zero appetite for trying to negotiate some other deal either with a majority Johnson government or some other unknown government with all the uncertainties involved.
Take it or leave it.
Parliament seems incapable of making its mind up so let the people decide. A GE risks being, from the EU's perspective, a self-indulgent distraction which may do nothing to resolve matters. Much like the last one.
It would require multiple days control, it's not a simple bill like Benn.
The Tories would be pushing for a GE and cancel referendum, Brexit position.
It will absolutely guarantee very few leavers vote for any of the party's party to it
The government could resign before its law forcing an election.
Nobody seriously believes May's deal vs remain is anything more than a blatant attempt to revoke and cancel Brexit
It requires the EU to extend beyond their next budget probably
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PgAKzmWmuk
They did decide.
From his perspective now IS have been defeated there is no need to keep risking US servicemens lives defending Kurdish territory from Turkish strikes even if morally the US might still have an obligation to the Kurds.
Plus where are the British and French forces defending the Kurds?
The British people now want to remain in the EU. They regret their decision and they want to change it before it's too late.
I can’t guarantee the sun will rise tomorrow morning. It probably will but I can’t guarantee it. If it doesn’t there may be deaths. Peoples lives are at risk.
The economy shrank by 0.1% during August
The chances of Trump having a rational, thought out position on this are between zero and fuck all, though I guess that reflects the world view of his base pretty well.
Enough of them are doing it...
If the referendum had been (say) Remain or Leave to EEA then the instruction to Parliament would have been clear and the govts job would have been to make that transition as painless as possible.
But that is not where we are.
Not a democratic outrage.
Decision theory is your friend here.
2. Likewise February is unlikely unless its end of February.
3. So I think its either November (28th?) or March 2020.
4. I don't think the average Conservative or Labour MP really wants an election. There are too many banana skins on route to be reasonably sure of keeping your job. For the CONS, all the need is a poor campaign, Brexit party hammering at them day and night and suddenly they finish on 25% and lose 150 seats. For Labour, all they need is for the Lib Dems to hammer them as the party of REMAIN, and Corbyn can't work his magic a second time, and they finish on 25%, and lose 100 seats.
Hell, BOTH could happen. How long ago were those polls with four parties all in the low 20s? Could happen.
5. Never underestimate the average MP wanting to keep their job more than anything. Look at O'Mara. How many times has he 'resigned' now?
6. Never underestimate the love of can kicking. The EU isn't the only organisation that loves to kick the can. If the EU gives us a June 2020 extension, I'm quite sure Parliament won't think about it until next March. If they give us till December 2020, Parliament will forget all about it till this time next year.
Having said all that, the problem at the moment is that we have a Government that are so far in 'the red' in terms of majority they can't do anything. Can we really limp on for six months (or more) with nothing happening (YES! I have a friend who insists the less government does, the better!)?