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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going long. Why a 2019 election is a lot less likely than gamb
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going long. Why a 2019 election is a lot less likely than gamblers seem to think
Let us embark on a voyage of discovery and fantasy. Imagine, if you will, that you are Jeremy Corbyn. You are to retreat to your allotment for the day to clear your mind of the ephemeral nonsense of Westminster and to plan strategically. As you cycle past a couple of your favourite manhole covers, you start to turn your mind to the burning question: on what basis do you want to conduct the next election?
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Jeremy Corbyn will agree to back a new bid by Boris to dissolve Parliament and go to the polls if he tables a vote for it on October 21, The Sun has learned.
Although it does also mention this is contingent on the Benn Act.
In a speech in Northampton he [Corbyn] will lay down a fresh gauntlet to the PM by telling him: “It’s simple: obey the law, take No Deal off the table and then let’s have the election.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/
Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
If that is the extension given, then the election is probably going to have to be on 5th December, or possibly 13th. No-one is going to want to campaign over Christmas (or be seen supporting the idea), and an early January dissolution leads to a mid-February election, most likely 20th if we stick to a 25 day campaign and a Thursday election.
My betting plan here is to base decisions on the extension date proposal, any date other than 31st Jan leads to a 2020 election. (But what do I know, I didn’t see Boris as next PM until it was way too late to still be laying the favourite).
I have memories of listening on the radio overnight as Hunt won his title in torrential rain, Lauda having sensibly decided not to risk his life in the conditions.
Corbyn lives in a bubble in which he is infallible and greeted everywhere he goes by big crowds of adoring supporters. He does not inhabit the real world. He genuinely thinks he will win the election, so why delay it?
I’ve greened up my position for now, which might well be silly but I didn’t want to be greedy and risk losing my stake, but I’m comfortable with the numbers I’ve got covered.
massive lightning rodcamera cable.What usually does for F1 is if the medical helicopter is unable to fly, or if the local hospital is unable to accept it because of weather conditions or a local emergency. No helicopter, no cars on track - thanks to Prof Watkins and Bernie for that rule, when they decided they didn’t like going to so many young men’s funerals.
Six months is probably the minimum, and it's best to look at dates in the EU calendar that they might link it to. So there's another EU council scheduled for mid-June, which is why the end of June has been mooted as a possible date.
I've also suggested the end of 2020 - the end date for the transition period agreed as part of May's deal.
But I disagree with its conclusion.
Whatever goes on within Jeremy Corbyn's head; whatever the cold, hard superior strategy might be; whatever elephant trap may be being laid, once an extension has been asked for I don't think he could countenance any further delay whatsoever.
It would set up too many attack lines for the Cons in that election ("you didn't care enough about the NHS or the homeless to want to get into power as soon as possible"). Plus Corbyn's pride has been pushed about as far as it can be.
Extension confirmed, he will jump at an election as soon as he can.
Mr. Sandpit, aye, the monsoon in Malaysia 2009 springs to mind too.
On-topic: such an election shouldn't happen *if* the Commons pro-EU priority is getting a second referendum.
That just might make the others decide that enough was enough and throw us out, without any transitional arrangements, on 31st October, with all the disruption that would bring.
December feels very possible though to me. The point below about not campaigning over Christmas seems right.
As an aside - I agree with Alistair that Corbyn would want a long campaign.
But I'm not sure he would want a 14 day scramble to form a govt... he wants to look like the main opposition to Johnson and have a debate on policy, not endless coverage of whether Labour MPs would back someone else.
Don't rule it out, don't assume Corbyn would walk away from such a tempting, meaty trap, and note that the testing of confidence is not a necessity for Corbyn to become PM out with an FTPA style route (Boris.didn't have to gain confidence, even though confidence wasn't clear).
This is still another quite viable route to a pre-Christmas election imho.
1) I’m not engaging with Ref 2. It’s not legitimate because we never implemented Ref 1.
2) Ref 2 proves the case Remainers/EU only accept votes they win, and you just keep voting till you get the desired result.
3) Remain wins by a colossal margin of course, but it means nothing, the legitimacy is disputed, the whole thing rumbles on, with added bile.
4) if Swinson says she’ll Revoke ( and would ignore Referendum results anyway she doesn’t like remember) if she wins a GE, and that trumps a Referendum, well two can play at that game, so we fan the flames for however long it takes to get a GE from Govt or Opposition (got to happen with 2.5 years), and go from there. Win a majority- out.
Assuming there is no Opposition agreement on an alternative strategy, such as legislating for a referendum, then I think the SNP would vote for an election. That's another 35, so 110 Labour MPs.
While two-thirds of Labour MPs did vote no confidence in Corbyn in 2016, I think the majority would vote with him for an early election, even if they didn't think it was a good idea. If Corbyn wills it - and Johnson doesn't back out - then an election will happen.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1182186055077941248
Johnson will never hand the keys over to Corbyn, it's not the Tory way. Imagine trying to defend letting in a crazed commie into No 10 and then claiming he'll destroy the country after that you're the one that let him in.
I actually don't think Johnson has as much to lose from requesting an extension as he thinks he does... it feeds his People Vs parliament narrative and I think will have a frightening amount of traction on the doorstep.
One hopes that some of this is just being deliberately provocative to encourage acceptance of more sensible suggestions (I don’t mind the use of the tax system to encourage the development of and/or steering towards more healthy choices - if done in a non punitive way which might risk driving poverty) but some of the headline measures are just bonkers. Why not just go the whole hog and introduce rationing? I suppose it could be sold as a pro-Brexit measure
The government know that they will not get 2/3 of total seats in support of a GE but they would probably get 50% of those that vote in a VONC (i.e. in a VONC abstentions do not count against).
There’s another point. I’ve assumed Boris Johnson will get on with his duties under the Benn Act quite promptly. That’s a bold assumption.
You can decide for yourself just how many of those he flunks but I think everyone would agree he fails at least one.
I suppose there would, in this scenario, be howls of protest against Corbyn not immediatley tabling a VONC from the Lib Dems and SNP, so I suppose there is a chance he will cave to this.
She seems to be an expert in puritanical nannying.
A November election needs very tight choreography by multiple parties who have no obvious reason to work for it.
[I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
"There was no poll released today by @OpiniumResearch or tweeted by us. Figures you may be seeing come from a fake account attempting to impersonate us and put out false data."
As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
I promise you, brexiteers will not in any circumstances accept that leaving the EU represents a disaster. They will always say that we were right to leave the EU and Boris will get the credit.
So why did Hammond spend all of the May years supporting the gibberish arguments about "sunny uplands"?
Though possibly more importantly: what's got the Telegraph start printing sensible views from anyone about Brexit?
Tie this in with the recent silence from the Murdoch and Harmsworth tabloids and there's grounds for suspecting that even the mad billionaires who own most of our print media may be beginning to suspect that Cummings' plans will severely damage their wallets.
Frankly it would be better for all concerned if he did (the latter). At least then if he got a majority then everyone would know exactly where we stand and businesses could actually decide (in reasonable time) that preparing for it is actually money worth spending.
However it might be conceded that yellow peril visitors to Auchentennach Castle might consider that "every day counts" as they rack up time and "go long" on some of the investigatory apparatus on show to valued LibDem temporary residents .....
Public Health England has this useful little tool. It is quite obvious that obesity rates in children vary with social deprivation. Leicester has twice the rate of Harborough for example.
Knowing PB interest, these are the stats for Hartlepool, 25%+ for some groups, obese or severely obese by age 11.
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/national-child-measurement-programme/data#page/7/gid/8000011/pat/6/par/E12000001/ati/101/are/E06000001/iid/92033/age/201/sex/4
I half-wonder if the route to this, and the reason that No 10 have propelled the debate on 19th Oct, is that Parliament will vote to have a People's Vote. So there will be an extension and a PV next year. That will give the cue for a November General Election because almost every MP will support it.
Johnson has no ontological interest in Brexit, unlike the true Brexiteers. He will drop it like a stone soon as he can. He just needs to save face first.
If parliamentarians take control again and re-run the Kyle amendment, setting a scenario that you describe there will be no GE for sure. Tories would never support not leaving teh EU 31/10 / referendum. Have I misunderstood you?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry/donald-trump-s-longtime-business-connections-turkey-back-spotlight-n1064011
1) take control of the agenda again
2) pass Kyle amendment (approve May WA if supported by a confirmatory refendum)
3) GE by VONC