I think it's still VERY early day's in the poiltical cycle for the Tories to be too despairing or for Labour to become too hubristic (though it may be too late given the arrogance of Labour supporters on this thread)
Autumn 2013 is still the absolute mid-term "dog-days" for the government. Let's see where we are in 12 month's time...
No point whingeing about it, but I am genuinely astonished by the easy ride Labour are getting so far compared to what would have happened had this been a tory Etonian banker.
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 2h Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
Back to the 70s with Ed's vinyl collection?
So assume we won't be getting any Arctic Monkeys or that sort of rubbish...
The autumn of 2013 will be remembered for being the time when it got through into thick right wingers` heads that Labour are headed for a win in 2015.Already the first articles acknowledging this have started to emerge!
I wouldn't read too much into Ed's fuel-tax subsidy bounce. Those fads come and go in politics. I predict it will have melted away by January, and I'm usually right about such things.
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 2h Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
Back to the 70s with Ed's vinyl collection?
So assume we won't be getting any Arctic Monkeys or that sort of rubbish...
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 2h Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
Back to the 70s with Ed's vinyl collection?
So assume we won't be getting any Arctic Monkeys or that sort of rubbish...
A PR man who got his job through Lady Astors palace connections and couldn't even beat Brown while relentlessly using his family to lie about the NHS has the moral high ground over John Smith.
Eh? Who said anything about moral high ground? John Smith was a person of great integrity, like most provincial solicitors are for that matter. But he wasn't exactly the most charismatic of politicians.
Just what the Tories could've done with in 2010 really, a Tory John Smith (ie a John Major type) would've got a majority against Brown, whereas Cameron/Osborne blew it.
Still no one has addressed the Tories deep seated brand problem which is very heartening.
They appear to be a mirror of Labours deep seated brand problem all over the south.
The difference being that Labour can win majorities with its status in the South whereas the Tories cannot with their brand being tainted every but the south.
And the Tory no-go areas are spreading - they started in Scotland, but now much of the North, many cities in the Midlands, most of inner London and Wales have little or no Tory councillors and few MPs. Labour has been weak in the South outside London for ever - it is still weak, but this weaknesses remains confined to the South.
Spreading in some parts but shrinking in others.
Urban areas are trending away from them but mining/industrial areas are trending towards them hence the Conservatives winning control of local authorities such as Bassetlaw, South Derbyshire and North-West Leicestershire which they had never controlled before and why constituencies such as Morley, Don Valley and Penistone & Stocksbridge are now winnable by the Conservatives.
But as the media focus on the areas they're aware ie big cities and give less attention to places which don't interest them the areas where the Conservatives have improved are less known about - even the Conservative leadership seemed unaware of them.
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 2h Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
Back to the 70s with Ed's vinyl collection?
So assume we won't be getting any Arctic Monkeys or that sort of rubbish...
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 2h Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
Back to the 70s with Ed's vinyl collection?
So assume we won't be getting any Arctic Monkeys or that sort of rubbish...
Still no PB Tory is prepared to engage with the argument. Not one.
As a PB Tory, I will ask a question about what I should do. Having been brought up in a working class family of five or six (one died), we were always told to get on with our work, we stayed in at night while everyone round us was playing. The only nights I went out were to choir practice.
Four of us went to University. Derided as 'queer' for working all hours (certainly in my case throughout my 20s), a nice house in Cheshire and another house in Oslo ten years later (I was working in both locations), the folks at home asked why I wasn't sharing the proceeds with them.
I offered one a job (at a contract in the Midlands I was working on, part of the project I was managing in Oslo). £500 a week in 1988, one day in the office, the rest at home.
He didn't turn up at all the second week.
And all we get is, 'these people are toxic', they should be nice to us.
The autumn of 2013 will be remembered for being the time when it got through into thick right wingers` heads that Labour are headed for a win in 2015.Already the first articles acknowledging this have started to emerge!
I wouldn't read too much into Ed's fuel-tax subsidy bounce. Those fads come and go in politics. I predict it will have melted away by January, and I'm usually right about such things.
`I'm beginning to think that Miliband's speech was the worst by a party leader in British political history. Even the Quiet Man didn't set in motion a tidal wave of Wilson/Sunny Jim anti-nostalgia to sweep across the country. At best Miliband is going to get blamed for every energy price hike between now and 2015; at worst he'll be remembered as the man who turned Britain into a business pariah state. Poor show!`-Stark Dawning,26 September.
No wonder you correctly predicted that Miliband`s speech would be a massive dud.
What with the private sector failing to make up all the public sector job losses, growth flatlining and the triple dip recession it's definitely wise to listen to those who feel the Tories are done.
Their prophesies have been spot on so far.Labour will be teetering at around 35 by the euro elections, and the Tories will be at least level by this time next year providing the economy holds.
No point whingeing about it, but I am genuinely astonished by the easy ride Labour are getting so far compared to what would have happened had this been a tory Etonian banker.
This is exactly the problem the tories have, Rev Flowers will be forgiven and Labour will not be affected, remember Ed Miliband had him on an advisory committee. If this was a tory banker it would be headlines for weeks and camerons judgement would now be being bought into question. Can you imagine the orgasm tim would having now, he would be up to 500 posts just today
Are there any Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy fans here ?
Because the tv series is being shown on BBC4 tonight while the new film is on Film4.
My favourite character is the drunken womanising fantasist who gets up to various misdeeds in South-East Asia under the name of Thomas.
He reminds me of someone ;-)
What did you think of my criticism of Cameron a few days ago - you asked for it, but headed out & I guess missed it
Pretty accurate IMO and worthy of discussion - I quoted it on a subsequent occasion.
And apologies if I wound you up too far that day.
What is interesting is we're now seeing Conservatives philosophising on what they would like the Conservative party to be - the Skelton and Boules articles for instance. Now whatever people think of those ideas they're at least trying to have some underpinning, whereas Cameron was always about style and image and being all things to all men.
* Labour will be teetering at around 35 by the euro elections, and the Tories will be at least level by this time next year providing the economy holds.
Still no PB Tory is prepared to engage with the argument. Not one.
They're in denial. I suppose it's understandable in a way, coming up to an election run arguably isn't the time for soul searching, they've just got to keep buggering on and hope for the best for now.
Problem is, will they learn when they again fail? All those years out of power and they still didn't "get it", which is why David Cameron's wristband fiddling and husky riding convinced some people that he was a "different" kind of Tory.
Are there any Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy fans here ?
Because the tv series is being shown on BBC4 tonight while the new film is on Film4.
My favourite character is the drunken womanising fantasist who gets up to various misdeeds in South-East Asia under the name of Thomas.
He reminds me of someone ;-)
What did you think of my criticism of Cameron a few days ago - you asked for it, but headed out & I guess missed it
Pretty accurate IMO and worthy of discussion - I quoted it on a subsequent occasion.
And apologies if I wound you up too far that day.
What is interesting is we're now seeing Conservatives philosophising on what they would like the Conservative party to be - the Skelton and Boules articles for instance. Now whatever people think of those ideas they're at least trying to have some underpinning, whereas Cameron was always about style and image and being all things to all men.
We're entering a post-Cameron era.
No worries - I only wound up by injustice. and needling by some bloke on the internet doesn't count.
Been too busy to post more than sporadically. Sick of Heathrow, sick of Germany. Need some sun and a break. Just have a couple of nice things, hardly used, to flog first.
"remember Ed Miliband had him on an advisory committee. If this was a tory banker it would be headlines for weeks and camerons judgement would now be being bought into question."
"remember Ed Miliband had him on an advisory committee. If this was a tory banker it would be headlines for weeks and camerons judgement would now be being bought into question."
Are there any Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy fans here ?
Because the tv series is being shown on BBC4 tonight while the new film is on Film4.
My favourite character is the drunken womanising fantasist who gets up to various misdeeds in South-East Asia under the name of Thomas.
He reminds me of someone ;-)
What did you think of my criticism of Cameron a few days ago - you asked for it, but headed out & I guess missed it
Pretty accurate IMO and worthy of discussion - I quoted it on a subsequent occasion.
And apologies if I wound you up too far that day.
What is interesting is we're now seeing Conservatives philosophising on what they would like the Conservative party to be - the Skelton and Boules articles for instance. Now whatever people think of those ideas they're at least trying to have some underpinning, whereas Cameron was always about style and image and being all things to all men.
We're entering a post-Cameron era.
No worries - I only wound up by injustice. and needling by some bloke on the internet doesn't count.
Been too busy to post more than sporadically. Sick of Heathrow, sick of Germany. Need some sun and a break. Just have a couple of nice things, hardly used, to flog first.
The autumn of 2013 will be remembered for being the time when it got through into thick right wingers` heads that Labour are headed for a win in 2015.Already the first articles acknowledging this have started to emerge!
I wouldn't read too much into Ed's fuel-tax subsidy bounce. Those fads come and go in politics. I predict it will have melted away by January, and I'm usually right about such things.
`I'm beginning to think that Miliband's speech was the worst by a party leader in British political history. Even the Quiet Man didn't set in motion a tidal wave of Wilson/Sunny Jim anti-nostalgia to sweep across the country. At best Miliband is going to get blamed for every energy price hike between now and 2015; at worst he'll be remembered as the man who turned Britain into a business pariah state. Poor show!`-Stark Dawning,26 September.
No wonder you correctly predicted that Miliband`s speech would be a massive dud.
I think I was too kind in that post. More prescient was a later one (you probably have it in your database) where I said that Miliband's juvenile and irresponsible milky-bars-are-on-me politics was storing up disappointment and civil unrest for the future. I can't conceive that I can be wrong about that.
"remember Ed Miliband had him on an advisory committee. If this was a tory banker it would be headlines for weeks and camerons judgement would now be being bought into question."
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 2h Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
Back to the 70s with Ed's vinyl collection?
So assume we won't be getting any Arctic Monkeys or that sort of rubbish...
Are there any Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy fans here ?
Because the tv series is being shown on BBC4 tonight while the new film is on Film4.
My favourite character is the drunken womanising fantasist who gets up to various misdeeds in South-East Asia under the name of Thomas.
He reminds me of someone ;-)
What did you think of my criticism of Cameron a few days ago - you asked for it, but headed out & I guess missed it
Pretty accurate IMO and worthy of discussion - I quoted it on a subsequent occasion.
And apologies if I wound you up too far that day.
What is interesting is we're now seeing Conservatives philosophising on what they would like the Conservative party to be - the Skelton and Boules articles for instance. Now whatever people think of those ideas they're at least trying to have some underpinning, whereas Cameron was always about style and image and being all things to all men.
We're entering a post-Cameron era.
No worries - I only wound up by injustice. and needling by some bloke on the internet doesn't count.
Been too busy to post more than sporadically. Sick of Heathrow, sick of Germany. Need some sun and a break. Just have a couple of nice things, hardly used, to flog first.
Do you know what's happened to Avery ?
I fear he's gone to join Cousin Seth.
Don't to be honest. But life in the City is busier than for many a long year.
A fairly predictable piece by Ryan Bourne of the Centre for Policy Studies in this morning's City AM urging the Conservatives to be, well, more conservative, as their only chance of winning the next election.
I'm not sure the post-Cameron manoeuvring has started - clearly, most sensible Conservatives will acknowledge that while it won't be easy, it's far too early to yield the battlefield to Labour.
That said, it seems inconceivable that were the Conservatives to be out of power after the next election, David Cameron could survive such a reverse. The degree of any reverse may well be as critical for the future leadership and potential contenders as it was in 1997.
My only thought on that leadership battle at this stage is that George Osborne has plenty of time on his side - he will still be under 50 at the 2020 election.
Still no PB Tory is prepared to engage with the argument. Not one.
As a PB Tory, I will ask a question about what I should do. Having been brought up in a working class family of five or six (one died), we were always told to get on with our work, we stayed in at night while everyone round us was playing. The only nights I went out were to choir practice.
Four of us went to University. Derided as 'queer' for working all hours (certainly in my case throughout my 20s), a nice house in Cheshire and another house in Oslo ten years later (I was working in both locations), the folks at home asked why I wasn't sharing the proceeds with them.
I offered one a job (at a contract in the Midlands I was working on, part of the project I was managing in Oslo). £500 a week in 1988, one day in the office, the rest at home.
He didn't turn up at all the second week.
And all we get is, 'these people are toxic', they should be nice to us.
A genuine question here, what are we meant to do?
People like to hate. People like to blame their own failures and underachievements on others.
The Conservative Party is associated with wealth, tradition, privilege.
Its an easy target.
What the Conservatives need to do is shift this hate onto the Leftwing establishment and its icons.
Still no PB Tory is prepared to engage with the argument. Not one.
As a PB Tory, I will ask a question about what I should do. Having been brought up in a working class family of five or six (one died), we were always told to get on with our work, we stayed in at night while everyone round us was playing. The only nights I went out were to choir practice.
Four of us went to University. Derided as 'queer' for working all hours (certainly in my case throughout my 20s), a nice house in Cheshire and another house in Oslo ten years later (I was working in both locations), the folks at home asked why I wasn't sharing the proceeds with them.
I offered one a job (at a contract in the Midlands I was working on, part of the project I was managing in Oslo). £500 a week in 1988, one day in the office, the rest at home.
He didn't turn up at all the second week.
And all we get is, 'these people are toxic', they should be nice to us.
A genuine question here, what are we meant to do?
People like to hate. People like to blame their own failures and underachievements on others.
The Conservative Party is associated with wealth, tradition, privilege.
Its an easy target.
What the Conservatives need to do is shift this hate onto the Leftwing establishment and its icons.
I reckon in a decade or so the lefts attitude to immigration, embracing it from Islington wine bars while the working class deal with the reality, will do the job
@Tim: I will leave you with one thought on FPTP. It's right that it does not help those parties who pile up votes in safe constituencies. In effect, a party needs to spread its vote and appeal across a wide range (voters/regions etc) to win via FPTP.
But in a way that forces parties to reach out - or should do. Just as Labour realised post 1992 that they had to appeal beyond their core, the Tories need to do the same. Their problem is that they are not doing that and, therefore, will find it very difficult to win. It could be argued that FPTP imposes a discipline on parties that would not be there otherwise and those parties that don't listen to that lesson deserve to shrivel and die.
Just a thought, anyway.
Off home now so will check in later to see what, if anything, anyone thinks of this.
It's a bit more subtle though. UKIP is doing what you suggest, and notching up 10-20% all over the place. FPTP will deliver 0 seats if they don't focus a bit. Moreover, individual MPs in most FPTP seats have no reason to reach out. Like GOP representatives from a gerrymandered district in Alabama, they only have to worry about getting renominated by their party, and the way to do that in a hardcore seat is to be hardcore themselves and criticise colleagues who try to reach out.
Just what the Tories could've done with in 2010 really, a Tory John Smith (ie a John Major type) would've got a majority against Brown, whereas Cameron/Osborne blew it.
Still no one has addressed the Tories deep seated brand problem which is very heartening.
They appear to be a mirror of Labours deep seated brand problem all over the south.
The difference being that Labour can win majorities with its status in the South whereas the Tories cannot with their brand being tainted every but the south.
And the Tory no-go areas are spreading - they started in Scotland, but now much of the North, many cities in the Midlands, most of inner London and Wales have little or no Tory councillors and few MPs. Labour has been weak in the South outside London for ever - it is still weak, but this weaknesses remains confined to the South.
Spreading in some parts but shrinking in others.
Urban areas are trending away from them but mining/industrial areas are trending towards them hence the Conservatives winning control of local authorities such as Bassetlaw, South Derbyshire and North-West Leicestershire which they had never controlled before and why constituencies such as Morley, Don Valley and Penistone & Stocksbridge are now winnable by the Conservatives.
But as the media focus on the areas they're aware ie big cities and give less attention to places which don't interest them the areas where the Conservatives have improved are less known about - even the Conservative leadership seemed unaware of them.
And as a little example does anyone know which two parts of the country now have Conservative MPs but which never had one throughout the 20th century ? And which part of the country now has a Labour MP but which had a Conservative MP throughout the 20th century ?
Just what the Tories could've done with in 2010 really, a Tory John Smith (ie a John Major type) would've got a majority against Brown, whereas Cameron/Osborne blew it.
Still no one has addressed the Tories deep seated brand problem which is very heartening.
They appear to be a mirror of Labours deep seated brand problem all over the south.
The difference being that Labour can win majorities with its status in the South whereas the Tories cannot with their brand being tainted every but the south.
And the Tory no-go areas are spreading - they started in Scotland, but now much of the North, many cities in the Midlands, most of inner London and Wales have little or no Tory councillors and few MPs. Labour has been weak in the South outside London for ever - it is still weak, but this weaknesses remains confined to the South.
Spreading in some parts but shrinking in others.
Urban areas are trending away from them but mining/industrial areas are trending towards them hence the Conservatives winning control of local authorities such as Bassetlaw, South Derbyshire and North-West Leicestershire which they had never controlled before and why constituencies such as Morley, Don Valley and Penistone & Stocksbridge are now winnable by the Conservatives.
But as the media focus on the areas they're aware ie big cities and give less attention to places which don't interest them the areas where the Conservatives have improved are less known about - even the Conservative leadership seemed unaware of them.
And as a little example does anyone know which two parts of the country now have Conservative MPs but which never had one throughout the 20th century ? And which part of the country now has a Labour MP but which had a Conservative MP throughout the 20th century ?
And if anyone is interested the newly Conservative areas are 'Carmarthenshire West' in the Pembrokshire South & Carmarthenshire West constituency and 'Rothwell' in the Elmet & Rothwell constituency. The formerly Conservative area is 'Penge' in the 'Lewisham West & Penge' constituency.
Comments
Autumn 2013 is still the absolute mid-term "dog-days" for the government. Let's see where we are in 12 month's time...
So assume we won't be getting any Arctic Monkeys or that sort of rubbish...
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/07/05/1515/
Urban areas are trending away from them but mining/industrial areas are trending towards them hence the Conservatives winning control of local authorities such as Bassetlaw, South Derbyshire and North-West Leicestershire which they had never controlled before and why constituencies such as Morley, Don Valley and Penistone & Stocksbridge are now winnable by the Conservatives.
But as the media focus on the areas they're aware ie big cities and give less attention to places which don't interest them the areas where the Conservatives have improved are less known about - even the Conservative leadership seemed unaware of them.
He really s a dull man.
As a PB Tory, I will ask a question about what I should do. Having been brought up in a working class family of five or six (one died), we were always told to get on with our work, we stayed in at night while everyone round us was playing. The only nights I went out were to choir practice.
Four of us went to University. Derided as 'queer' for working all hours (certainly in my case throughout my 20s), a nice house in Cheshire and another house in Oslo ten years later (I was working in both locations), the folks at home asked why I wasn't sharing the proceeds with them.
I offered one a job (at a contract in the Midlands I was working on, part of the project I was managing in Oslo). £500 a week in 1988, one day in the office, the rest at home.
He didn't turn up at all the second week.
And all we get is, 'these people are toxic', they should be nice to us.
A genuine question here, what are we meant to do?
No wonder you correctly predicted that Miliband`s speech would be a massive dud.
Their prophesies have been spot on so far.Labour will be teetering at around 35 by the euro elections, and the Tories will be at least level by this time next year providing the economy holds.
And apologies if I wound you up too far that day.
What is interesting is we're now seeing Conservatives philosophising on what they would like the Conservative party to be - the Skelton and Boules articles for instance. Now whatever people think of those ideas they're at least trying to have some underpinning, whereas Cameron was always about style and image and being all things to all men.
We're entering a post-Cameron era.
Spain losing to South Africa
QED.
Problem is, will they learn when they again fail? All those years out of power and they still didn't "get it", which is why David Cameron's wristband fiddling and husky riding convinced some people that he was a "different" kind of Tory.
Been too busy to post more than sporadically. Sick of Heathrow, sick of Germany. Need some sun and a break. Just have a couple of nice things, hardly used, to flog first.
I SO want to follow up this comment, but can't.
I fear he's gone to join Cousin Seth.
Cameron and The Smiths was a push, 'Eton Rifles' was just ridiculous
http://www.cityam.com/article/1384824766/tories-are-spreading-ashes-party-modernisation-and-it-s-good-thing
A fairly predictable piece by Ryan Bourne of the Centre for Policy Studies in this morning's City AM urging the Conservatives to be, well, more conservative, as their only chance of winning the next election.
I'm not sure the post-Cameron manoeuvring has started - clearly, most sensible Conservatives will acknowledge that while it won't be easy, it's far too early to yield the battlefield to Labour.
That said, it seems inconceivable that were the Conservatives to be out of power after the next election, David Cameron could survive such a reverse. The degree of any reverse may well be as critical for the future leadership and potential contenders as it was in 1997.
My only thought on that leadership battle at this stage is that George Osborne has plenty of time on his side - he will still be under 50 at the 2020 election.
People like to blame their own failures and underachievements on others.
The Conservative Party is associated with wealth, tradition, privilege.
Its an easy target.
What the Conservatives need to do is shift this hate onto the Leftwing establishment and its icons.
Isn't he simply in the wrong party?