The group donate to the Co op party who also donate to Labour .
That was my point - that I thought it was the Group that donates rather than the hedge-fund-owned bank as suggested by City AM.
I believe that the Bank has loans out to the Labour party though. And if they are no longer part of the Group, at what point does a financially responsible banker start to ask if they are ever going to be paid back?
I believe that the Bank has loans out to the Labour party though. And if they are no longer part of the Group, at what point does a financially responsible banker start to ask if they are ever going to be paid back?
The Bank is still partly owned by the Group. I would have thought the Labour party was a perfectly good risk. It is financially supported by organisations with large reserves and is most unlikely to go bankrupt.
"You seem to be suggesting the Tories ape Labour ideals."
Far from it. There's no need for a modern Conservative Party to ape Labour ideals. Or for them to be stuck in a timewarp, mired in 1980s Rightwing ideological purity, and too often downright nasty as the current lot are.
I'm suggesting they can't, and won't, win a majority until they modernise.
A PR man who got his job through Lady Astors palace connections and couldn't even beat Brown while relentlessly using his family to lie about the NHS has the moral high ground over John Smith.
Eh? Who said anything about moral high ground? John Smith was a person of great integrity, like most provincial solicitors are for that matter. But he wasn't exactly the most charismatic of politicians.
Just what the Tories could've done with in 2010 really, a Tory John Smith (ie a John Major type) would've got a majority against Brown, whereas Cameron/Osborne blew it.
Still no one has addressed the Tories deep seated brand problem which is very heartening.
They appear to be a mirror of Labours deep seated brand problem all over the south.
The difference being that Labour can win majorities with its status in the South whereas the Tories cannot with their brand being tainted every but the south. Even in the South it's badly damaged, why do you think they failed to win so many Lib Dem seats last time.
A PR man who got his job through Lady Astors palace connections and couldn't even beat Brown while relentlessly using his family to lie about the NHS has the moral high ground over John Smith.
Eh? Who said anything about moral high ground? John Smith was a person of great integrity, like most provincial solicitors are for that matter. But he wasn't exactly the most charismatic of politicians.
Just what the Tories could've done with in 2010 really, a Tory John Smith (ie a John Major type) would've got a majority against Brown, whereas Cameron/Osborne blew it.
Still no one has addressed the Tories deep seated brand problem which is very heartening.
They appear to be a mirror of Labours deep seated brand problem all over the south.
The difference being that Labour can win majorities with its status in the South whereas the Tories cannot with their brand being tainted every but the south. Even in the South it's badly damaged, why do you think they failed to win so many Lib Dem seats last time.
'Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence' - A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
Arguably, the Better Togethers (whom I support) have turned the real issue on its head. That is: what to do about England? It is the English, thrashing around since 1945 in search of an identity, who pose the biggest threat to the EU with their threats to quit, to try and rewrite the treaties, to veto further integration, to turn the union into a mere free trade zone. One undeniable consequence of this drive – whether led by Nigel Farage and Ukip or the greater Switzerland wing of the Tories – is that it is hastening the break-up of Britain/the UK.
As Charlie Jeffery, professor of politics at Edinburgh university and co-author of the recent IPPR study, England and its two unions, put it recently: "English Euroscepticism is more of a challenge to the UK than the independence movement in Scotland."
It's not just that English and Scottish attitudes to the EU are reverse images of each other: a majority of Scots favour staying in the EU while a majority of the English would quit if given the choice.
John Curtice suggests there's not much difference between english and scottish attitudes to the EU:
"...an analysis of opinion poll data collected during the course of this year suggests that whereas across Britain as a whole only 37% would vote to stay in the European Union, in Scotland that figure is rather higher, 43% – a difference of six points. Equally, the proportion who would vote to leave is six points lower in Scotland. While that difference is potentially enough to alter the majority outcome, it is not enough to suggest that there is a far stronger groundswell in favour of the European project north of the border."
A PR man who got his job through Lady Astors palace connections and couldn't even beat Brown while relentlessly using his family to lie about the NHS has the moral high ground over John Smith.
Eh? Who said anything about moral high ground? John Smith was a person of great integrity, like most provincial solicitors are for that matter. But he wasn't exactly the most charismatic of politicians.
Just what the Tories could've done with in 2010 really, a Tory John Smith (ie a John Major type) would've got a majority against Brown, whereas Cameron/Osborne blew it.
Still no one has addressed the Tories deep seated brand problem which is very heartening.
They appear to be a mirror of Labours deep seated brand problem all over the south.
The difference being that Labour can win majorities with its status in the South whereas the Tories cannot with their brand being tainted every but the south. Even in the South it's badly damaged, why do you think they failed to win so many Lib Dem seats last time.
But it's always someone else's fault.
Yes - vast swathes of red all over the south. Labour truly are the one nation party.
I really dislike geographically accurate maps to show constituencies - the differential area makes them truly meaningless. Is there anywhere online that has the 'each constituency as a hexagon' type map which I know that we have seen in the past?
A PR man who got his job through Lady Astors palace connections and couldn't even beat Brown while relentlessly using his family to lie about the NHS has the moral high ground over John Smith.
Eh? Who said anything about moral high ground? John Smith was a person of great integrity, like most provincial solicitors are for that matter. But he wasn't exactly the most charismatic of politicians.
Just what the Tories could've done with in 2010 really, a Tory John Smith (ie a John Major type) would've got a majority against Brown, whereas Cameron/Osborne blew it.
Still no one has addressed the Tories deep seated brand problem which is very heartening.
They appear to be a mirror of Labours deep seated brand problem all over the south.
The difference being that Labour can win majorities with its status in the South whereas the Tories cannot with their brand being tainted every but the south.
And the Tory no-go areas are spreading - they started in Scotland, but now much of the North, many cities in the Midlands, most of inner London and Wales have little or no Tory councillors and few MPs. Labour has been weak in the South outside London for ever - it is still weak, but this weaknesses remains confined to the South.
It explains why they could not win a majority in the extremely favourable circumstances of 2010. And it also explains their tiny or non-existent presence in local government in major cities. The Tories have not had a council majority in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Nottingham, Bristol, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge or Norwich since the 1980s. Even Southampton has only had a majority Tory Council for 4 years in the past 20. Tories are disappearing from most large cities and not just in the north.
GE 2015 outcome will have everything to do with the FPTP system at this point in time massively favouring Labour. The Conservatives can win the popular vote, and Labour can still get a majority - whereas if Labour wins the popular vote it WILL get most seats. That's an incredibly asymmetric board for the two realistic players of Gov't.
And it is not that the system is bias against the conservatives, UKIP due to having a very spread vote will find it hard to win a single seat despite the fact they may well poll far more than the Lib Dems in terms of national vote share. In fact even (theoretically) extrapolating the Lib Dems to a small lead over Labour gives Labour a crushing majority (Both on ~35%) and if you take both CON and LD to ~35% there is an advantage to Conservative. But take any other party into the high 30s against Labour and Labour holds a big seat advantage over all of them.
Labour's advantage works through slightly smaller (voter numbers) seats, efficiency and differential turnout in their safe seats - It is like them playing a game of chess with an extra knight at the start - Before a vote has even been cast.
@Tim: Labour may well be able to win without getting support in the South. But if you think that a government with no or little support amongst the part of the country which provides the bulk - or a very significant proportion - of the wealth/tax revenues of the country is a good thing, you're mistaken.
Both parties need to be genuinely national parties. Neither are. The Tories have a big problem, their biggest one being that they don't realise that they have a problem nor the scale of it. On that I agree with you.
But so do Labour - and the fact that they may, indeed on current poll trends, will win - does not obscure that fact. A government that is out of touch with those who pay for it will, sooner or later, run into difficulties.
@Tim: Labour may well be able to win without getting support in the South. But if you think that a government with no or little support amongst the part of the country which provides the bulk - or a very significant proportion - of the wealth/tax revenues of the country is a good thing, you're mistaken.
Both parties need to be genuinely national parties. Neither are. The Tories have a big problem, their biggest one being that they don't realise that they have a problem nor the scale of it. On that I agree with you.
But so do Labour - and the fact that they may, indeed on current poll trends, will win - does not obscure that fact. A government that is out of touch with those who pay for it will, sooner or later, run into difficulties.
It explains why they could not win a majority in the extremely favourable circumstances of 2010. And it also explains their tiny or non-existent presence in local government in major cities. The Tories have not had a council majority in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Nottingham, Bristol, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge or Norwich since the 1980s. Even Southampton has only had a majority Tory Council for 4 years in the past 20. Tories are disappearing from most large cities and not just in the north.
On the other hand:
The 2009 United Kingdom local elections were elections held to all 27 County Councils, three existing Unitary Authorities and five new Unitary Authorities, all in England, on 4 June 2009. ... The elections produced a political landscape on the map of England that was a sea of Conservative blue. The party snatched Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and Lancashire from Labour, as well as Devon and Somerset from the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats did however win a majority in Bristol. ... Labour, suffering from a worsening economic climate and the expenses scandal, lost all of its councils, with some authorities being swept clear of any Labour councillors at all.
What has actually happened is a polarisation of the Conservative/Labour vote, with both parties strenghtening in their core areas relative to the other (plus the rise of the LibDems and other parties, of course).
As for 2010, the circumstances were by no means favourable. They were starting from a weak position in 2005, so bad that at the time everyone thought it would be at least a two-term project to get back into government. In addition, winning an election on the basis of telling the electorate that times were tough and the freebies would have to be stopped was never going to be easy, and Nick Clegg did very well in grabbing some of the 'time for change' sentiment.
It explains why they could not win a majority in the extremely favourable circumstances of 2010. And it also explains their tiny or non-existent presence in local government in major cities. The Tories have not had a council majority in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Nottingham, Bristol, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge or Norwich since the 1980s. Even Southampton has only had a majority Tory Council for 4 years in the past 20. Tories are disappearing from most large cities and not just in the north.
On the other hand:
The 2009 United Kingdom local elections were elections held to all 27 County Councils, three existing Unitary Authorities and five new Unitary Authorities, all in England, on 4 June 2009. ... The elections produced a political landscape on the map of England that was a sea of Conservative blue. The party snatched Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and Lancashire from Labour, as well as Devon and Somerset from the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats did however win a majority in Bristol. ... Labour, suffering from a worsening economic climate and the expenses scandal, lost all of its councils, with some authorities being swept clear of any Labour councillors at all.
What has actually happened is a polarisation of the Conservative/Labour vote, with both parties strenghtening in their core areas relative to the other (plus the rise of the LibDems and other parties, of course).
As for 2010, the circumstances were by no means favourable. They were starting from a weak position in 2005, so bad that at the time everyone thought it would be at least a two-term project to get back into government. In addition, winning an election on the basis of telling the electorate that times were tough and the freebies would have to be stopped was never going to be easy, and Nick Clegg did very well in grabbing some of the 'time for change' sentiment.
Locals always tend to be counter-cyclical to the current Gov't - Here's a prediction, Labour will lose alot of councils between 2016 and 2020.
Don't be silly. However, I'm sure the Spanish would deal with Britain a bit more respectfully if Farrage was in charge.
Are you a fifth columnist, out to make UKIP supporters look silly and out of touch with reality? I thought your in excess of twenty seats was as ridiculous as you could get, but you've trumped it.
If the story is true that Pickles has quashed any movement on new towns for fear of upsetting the SE Tory NIMBY's whose sole interest is to protect their house prices no matter who gets screwed over (usually their own children) then your problems are deeper than simply geographic.
You think not proposing new towns is going to be a huge vote loser rather than something noone ever realised didnt happen?
@Tim: Labour may well be able to win without getting support in the South. But if you think that a government with no or little support amongst the part of the country which provides the bulk - or a very significant proportion - of the wealth/tax revenues of the country is a good thing, you're mistaken.
Both parties need to be genuinely national parties. Neither are. The Tories have a big problem, their biggest one being that they don't realise that they have a problem nor the scale of it. On that I agree with you.
But so do Labour - and the fact that they may, indeed on current poll trends, will win - does not obscure that fact. A government that is out of touch with those who pay for it will, sooner or later, run into difficulties.
Thats why I believe in multi member constituencies, instead of 6 Surrey Tories and 6 Strathclyde Labour MP's you'd have representation across the country of all parties
If I were you I'd be worried by the generational stuff that people like Skelton and Boles are highlighting. If the story is true that Pickles has quashed any movement on new towns for fear of upsetting the SE Tory NIMBY's whose sole interest is to protect their house prices no matter who gets screwed over (usually their own children) then your problems are deeper than simply geographic.
Skelton and Boles are saying very interesting things, some of which I agree with, and some I don't. But, as you should well know, new towns, or any big planning changes, are incredibly difficult. Why on earth do you think Labour did nothing on housing or power generation for 13 years, even with its massive majorities?
Over several threads a couple of months ago, I made a series of posts discussing how childhood experiences had influenced my political leanings (a bit left-ish). With hindsight, I am afraid these remarks may have been perceived by some as insulting. If so, I am very sorry and I hope you will forgive me.
Being rude to people is contrary to my philosophy of life.
(The delay has been due to medical problems, better now.)
Over several threads a couple of months ago, I made a series of posts discussing how childhood experiences had influenced my political leanings (a bit left-ish). With hindsight, I am afraid these remarks may have been perceived by some as insulting. If so, I am very sorry and I hope you will forgive me.
Being rude to people is contrary to my philosophy of life.
(The delay has been due to medical problems, better now.)
Well there is always plenty of 'robust' debate here no matter which way your politics lies We've all probably offended other posters here in our time - Though I can't recall anything offensive from yourself. Not to worry anyhow.
If I were you I'd be worried by the generational stuff that people like Skelton and Boles are highlighting. If the story is true that Pickles has quashed any movement on new towns for fear of upsetting the SE Tory NIMBY's whose sole interest is to protect their house prices no matter who gets screwed over (usually their own children) then your problems are deeper than simply geographic.
Skelton and Boles are saying very interesting things, some of which I agree with, and some I don't. But, as you should well know, new towns, or any big planning changes, are incredibly difficult. Why on earth do you think Labour did nothing on housing or power generation for 13 years, even with its massive majorities?
Tim Shipman re-tweets: "Sure it's just a coincidence that as soon as it emerged Miliband met with the Co-Op Bank crystal meth guy, Balls announced he never had.:
If I were you I'd be worried by the generational stuff that people like Skelton and Boles are highlighting. If the story is true that Pickles has quashed any movement on new towns for fear of upsetting the SE Tory NIMBY's whose sole interest is to protect their house prices no matter who gets screwed over (usually their own children) then your problems are deeper than simply geographic.
Skelton and Boles are saying very interesting things, some of which I agree with, and some I don't. But, as you should well know, new towns, or any big planning changes, are incredibly difficult. Why on earth do you think Labour did nothing on housing or power generation for 13 years, even with its massive majorities?
To be fair, Labour did do something on planning. In 2008 they allowed roll forward of planning permission, meaning developers did not lose the planning permission after three years.
@Tim: Labour may well be able to win without getting support in the South. But if you think that a government with no or little support amongst the part of the country which provides the bulk - or a very significant proportion - of the wealth/tax revenues of the country is a good thing, you're mistaken.
Both parties need to be genuinely national parties. Neither are. The Tories have a big problem, their biggest one being that they don't realise that they have a problem nor the scale of it. On that I agree with you.
But so do Labour - and the fact that they may, indeed on current poll trends, will win - does not obscure that fact. A government that is out of touch with those who pay for it will, sooner or later, run into difficulties.
As others have said, this is really a FPTP issue. If you're a Tory in Liverpool you pretty much have to vote LibDem to beat Labour (sometimes), and conversely a Labour voter in rural Sussex has to vote LibDem to (maybe) beat the Tories. Over time this becomes a habit and you stop thinking you're Labour or Tory at all. With PR (in whatever form) people would gradually rethink, and you'd see a significant smoothing of support across the country.
That said, it's not THAT extreme now. The Tories have 26% support in today's YG in the North of England, whlie Labour has 24% in the non-London south. Neither party exceeds 49% anywhere, so the ratios are never more than 2:1. Scotland is of course a special case.
I think the issue re Flowers is not whether Ed Milliband has met him but that the two most important factors when appointing someone are (a) integrity; and (b) competence. What is not important is what political party they belong to or whether they fit some quota or other irrelevance.
Organisations, whether political parties, banks, public sector bodies or private sector firms, which forget this basic lesson end up in trouble.
Quite why anyone thought Flowers suitable is a mystery but not so much of a mystery when you realise that too many appointments in recent times have ignored integrity and competence when decisions were made.
It would be good if people now remembered this. That applies - in the political world - to Cameron appointing his friends and Labour with their diversity obsessions. There are far far too many incompetent and/or dishonest people in positions of responsibility in this country.
A bit of self-knowledge by MPs wouldn't go amiss either.
Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?
What should Miliband say to Cameron if Dave brings up the Flowers stuff?
For now he could ask
"Did you ever buy illegal drugs when advising Norman Lamont as Chancellor or Michael Howard as Home Secretary" or more likely someone like Dennis Skinner could ask.
Grant Shapps, what a gift he is.
Wouldn't be to do with the business of the government - so of course Bercow would rule it out of order.....
I think the issue re Flowers is not whether Ed Milliband has met him but that the two most important factors when appointing someone are (a) integrity; and (b) competence. What is not important is what political party they belong to or whether they fit some quota or other irrelevance.
Organisations, whether political parties, banks, public sector bodies or private sector firms, which forget this basic lesson end up in trouble.
Quite why anyone thought Flowers suitable is a mystery but not so much of a mystery when you realise that too many appointments in recent times have ignored integrity and competence when decisions were made.
It would be good if people now remembered this. That applies - in the political world - to Cameron appointing his friends and Labour with their diversity obsessions. There are far far too many incompetent and/or dishonest people in positions of responsibility in this country.
A bit of self-knowledge by MPs wouldn't go amiss either.
Quite. Political regimes of all types in many different countries have favoured ideological purity and biddability over competence and integrity. The most effective governments and for that matter the most effective companies favour competence and integrity over yes men.
Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?
And then there's why he quit Rochdale....for reasons yet to emerge.....
Just five women are among the 91 people who have been entertained at private dinners with David Cameron and senior ministers, Political Scrapbook can reveal.
It would have been more accurate to say that only 5 women bothered to pay a huge amount of money for dinner with Dave and co. And it was the Tory party rather than Political Scrapbook that revealed it.
'Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?'
Any news of his impact on Labour's finance & Industry Board?
No, thank heaven, he's not a windbag, a provincial solicitor, or a con-merchant.
Oooh get you a "provincial solicitor"
A PR man who got his job through Lady Astors palace connections and couldn't even beat Brown while relentlessly using his family to lie about the NHS has the moral high ground over John Smith.
Remind me about Camerons answers to questions about his drug use again, what was his carefully crafted formula?
You have a very curious definition of "not beating Brown".
Cameron's party got 36.1% of the vote Brown's party got 29.0% of the vote Result: Cameron beat Brown by 7.1%
Cameron's party got 306 seats Brown's party got 258 seats Results: Cameron beat Brown by 48 seats
Cameron's party gained 97 seats Brown's party lost 91 seats Result: Cameron beat Brown on seats changing hands by net 188 seats
Cameron became PM following the election Brown was PM prior to the election Result: Cameron beat Brown out of office
Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?
Sometimes people in positions of authority have a little black book full of the 'hobbies' of others. Good grief, if this guy had the dirt on others....
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Nigel Farage has undergone major spinal surgery today and he is recovering well after his operation at a hospital in London.
Mr. K, hope Farage makes a full and speedy recovery.
Edited extra bit: also, there's a rumour Hulkenberg and Perez will go to Force India. That's a bit weird, as Sutil has a contract with someone, and it sounded like it was with Force India.
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Nigel Farage has undergone major spinal surgery today and he is recovering well after his operation at a hospital in London.
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Nigel Farage has undergone major spinal surgery today and he is recovering well after his operation at a hospital in London.
That's probably why Spain felt emboldened enough to enter Gibraltar's waters. They knew Farage wouldnt be around to make them pay. They better watch out for when he gets better.
The facts are that since at least 1973 no party has defeated the incumbent Govt unless it had a large lead in the number of councillors over the Govt party. In 2005 the Cons even failed to win with an 8% lead and Lab failed in 92 with a 6% lead. Maybe the coalition changes things.... But the Labour party are unlikely to have more than 36% of all cllrs going into GE2015 whilst the Conservatives will have 40%+ and the Lib Dems probably 11%. Milliband will probably have a lower % of cllrs than Kinnock. Currently its C 42%, Lab 33.0%, LD 12%. But records are there to be broken.
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 2h Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
'Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?'
Any news of his impact on Labour's finance & Industry Board?
No, other than Ed Balls definitely didn't meet him (some might think a bit churlish after he arranged to fund Balls office to the tune of £50k) - which was announced just after Ed said he did meet him. In private.
'Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?'
Any news of his impact on Labour's finance & Industry Board?
No, other than Ed Balls definitely didn't meet him (some might think a bit churlish after he arranged to fund Balls office to the tune of £50k) - which was announced just after Ed said he did meet him. In private.
"Still no PB Tory is prepared to engage with the argument. Not one.
Well, what do you think, tim? Serious question - do you think Nick Boles' idea of a separate affiliated party is a good one? I can't quite see how it would work myself.
On topic. I suspect this attitude to likeability would have been equally true in the 1980s. Didn't stop the Tories winning majorities then. Thatcher was not cuddly.
I don't need to "like" my govt in exactly the same way I don't have to like my Doctor or Bank Manager. I just want them to be good at their job.
Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?
Obviously a bit of a card, maybe he should run for Mayor of Toronto
Jonathan True, but Thatcher was leader at an exceptional time, we needed a less likeable leader to take on the unions and the nation's economic malaise, normally the more likeable leader wins
Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?
Obviously a bit of a card, maybe he should run for Mayor of Toronto
The position of Toronto mayor is already filled. – Mayor of Brixton gaol looks more likely. ; )
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Nigel Farage has undergone major spinal surgery today and he is recovering well after his operation at a hospital in London.
How are things progressing on the Eastern front?
For a person that has named his alter ego saddened, you certainly are a sadsack. Why don't you brighten your life and take a powder. Better still, take two powders.
'You can look at one poll or you can look at them all and the trend to find the blindingly obvious answer.'
And yet the 'Yes' to independence polling in Scotland is even worse and you still appear to be optimistic,or has the long trend of polls for 'No' changed your mind?.
@Tim: I will leave you with one thought on FPTP. It's right that it does not help those parties who pile up votes in safe constituencies. In effect, a party needs to spread its vote and appeal across a wide range (voters/regions etc) to win via FPTP.
But in a way that forces parties to reach out - or should do. Just as Labour realised post 1992 that they had to appeal beyond their core, the Tories need to do the same. Their problem is that they are not doing that and, therefore, will find it very difficult to win. It could be argued that FPTP imposes a discipline on parties that would not be there otherwise and those parties that don't listen to that lesson deserve to shrivel and die.
Just a thought, anyway.
Off home now so will check in later to see what, if anything, anyone thinks of this.
Astonishing! The Autumn of 2013 we be remembered for its barrage of Labour sleaze - bumbling skulduggery with its leadership, opulent debauchery amongst its membership. I don't think any of us saw that coming.
Astonishing! The Autumn of 2013 we be remembered for its barrage of Labour sleaze - bumbling skulduggery with its leadership, opulent debauchery amongst its membership. I don't think any of us saw that coming.
The autumn of 2013 will be remembered for being the time when it got through into thick right wingers` heads that Labour are headed for a win in 2015.Already the first articles acknowledging this have started to emerge!
Astonishing! The Autumn of 2013 we be remembered for its barrage of Labour sleaze - bumbling skulduggery with its leadership, opulent debauchery amongst its membership. I don't think any of us saw that coming.
Low cost loans from the Co op bank turns it into...
On topic. I suspect this attitude to likeability would have been equally true in the 1980s. Didn't stop the Tories winning majorities then. Thatcher was not cuddly.
I don't need to "like" my govt in exactly the same way I don't have to like my Doctor or Bank Manager. I just want them to be good at their job.
A major factor in Thatcher's victories was the fact that the left was badly split between Labour and the SDP/Lib Alliance. That boot is now very firmly on the other foot and it looks like the Tories will go into the 2015 with the right badly split for the first time I can remember.
Still no PB Tory is prepared to engage with the argument. Not one.
Tim, the simple fact is you are right, in general, and especially in the North of England tories will be forever toxic to a majority of people in this country. In my view there is nothing they can do. Sometimes they will win elections where the thought of labour again is just too much to bear. But I dont think even in this scenario large numbers of people vote tory with passion. I think people like the thought of the "fairer" society that labour convince them of, but are permanently disappointed when labour get into power. Despite this they are very forgiving of labour and always look to give them another chance, despite labours past record. Deep down people know that a tory government will be more economically competent than a labour one, but it will not stop them voting labour. Its a bit like Alex Ferguson, most football fans, in this country hated him. They knew that if he was their teams manager their team was far more likely to do better, despite this the majority would not want him. In summary their is nout as funny as folk. Its a bit like deprived areas in this country which have had a labour mp and a labour council for decades, Nothing ever changes, the areas remain deprived, despite this people will vote labour till the day they die.
'You can look at one poll or you can look at them all and the trend to find the blindingly obvious answer.'
And yet the 'Yes' to independence polling in Scotland is even worse and you still appear to be optimistic,or has the long trend of polls for 'No' changed your mind?.
You and your chums in scottish labour's complacency is delightful. As some of us know from the 2011 scottish election landslide for the SNP where the polls were giving SLAB double digit leads before the campaign really started.
The fact is the kippers are well, well above 3% and show sign of ever dropping down to those kind of 2010 levels thanks to the incompetent fop Cammie.
Jonathan True, but Thatcher was leader at an exceptional time, we needed a less likeable leader to take on the unions and the nation's economic malaise, normally the more likeable leader wins
And Labour 2010 didn't leave behind an economic malaise that needed clearing up?
Comments
Far from it. There's no need for a modern Conservative Party to ape Labour ideals. Or for them to be stuck in a timewarp, mired in 1980s Rightwing ideological purity, and too often downright nasty as the current lot are.
I'm suggesting they can't, and won't, win a majority until they modernise.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/2010UKElectionMap.svg/325px-2010UKElectionMap.svg.png
Yes - vast swathes of red all over the south. Labour truly are the one nation party.
Oooh look! Pretty colours!
Brogan should read PB, it might provide some illumination on his puzzle.
John Curtice suggests there's not much difference between english and scottish attitudes to the EU:
"...an analysis of opinion poll data collected during the course of this year suggests that whereas across Britain as a whole only 37% would vote to stay in the European Union, in Scotland that figure is rather higher, 43% – a difference of six points. Equally, the proportion who would vote to leave is six points lower in Scotland. While that difference is potentially enough to alter the majority outcome, it is not enough to suggest that there is a far stronger groundswell in favour of the European project north of the border."
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/10/two-different-countries-scottish-and-english-attitudes-to-equality-and-europe/
Guys, you do realise that the 'toxic' Tories have never got as low a vote share as your lot got in 2010, do you? Not even in 1997.
The party who are about to go 28 years (at least) without a majority?
I'm baffled at the lack of interest Tories have in becoming more popular. Strange thing for a political party.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/constituencies/default.stm
And it is not that the system is bias against the conservatives, UKIP due to having a very spread vote will find it hard to win a single seat despite the fact they may well poll far more than the Lib Dems in terms of national vote share. In fact even (theoretically) extrapolating the Lib Dems to a small lead over Labour gives Labour a crushing majority (Both on ~35%) and if you take both CON and LD to ~35% there is an advantage to Conservative. But take any other party into the high 30s against Labour and Labour holds a big seat advantage over all of them.
Labour's advantage works through slightly smaller (voter numbers) seats, efficiency and differential turnout in their safe seats - It is like them playing a game of chess with an extra knight at the start - Before a vote has even been cast.
Both parties need to be genuinely national parties. Neither are. The Tories have a big problem, their biggest one being that they don't realise that they have a problem nor the scale of it. On that I agree with you.
But so do Labour - and the fact that they may, indeed on current poll trends, will win - does not obscure that fact. A government that is out of touch with those who pay for it will, sooner or later, run into difficulties.
'City am already calling for the Co op to de politicise.'
Has Balls handed back the £50,000 to the Co op yet?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/congregation-unite-in-protest-at-suspension-of-parish-priest.22710242
The 2009 United Kingdom local elections were elections held to all 27 County Councils, three existing Unitary Authorities and five new Unitary Authorities, all in England, on 4 June 2009.
...
The elections produced a political landscape on the map of England that was a sea of Conservative blue. The party snatched Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and Lancashire from Labour, as well as Devon and Somerset from the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats did however win a majority in Bristol. ... Labour, suffering from a worsening economic climate and the expenses scandal, lost all of its councils, with some authorities being swept clear of any Labour councillors at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2009
What has actually happened is a polarisation of the Conservative/Labour vote, with both parties strenghtening in their core areas relative to the other (plus the rise of the LibDems and other parties, of course).
As for 2010, the circumstances were by no means favourable. They were starting from a weak position in 2005, so bad that at the time everyone thought it would be at least a two-term project to get back into government. In addition, winning an election on the basis of telling the electorate that times were tough and the freebies would have to be stopped was never going to be easy, and Nick Clegg did very well in grabbing some of the 'time for change' sentiment.
Hardly a benchmark of failure for Dave and George.
I agree with tim!
Both Scots tories and Home Counties socialists deserve some sympathetic representation.
And of course if the situation was reversed the Chairman of the Labour party would not be writing to Cameron.
A delayed apology to Conservative-minded PB-ers
Over several threads a couple of months ago, I made a series of posts discussing how childhood experiences had influenced my political leanings (a bit left-ish). With hindsight, I am afraid these remarks may have been perceived by some as insulting. If so, I am very sorry and I hope you will forgive me.
Being rude to people is contrary to my philosophy of life.
(The delay has been due to medical problems, better now.)
An old crystal methodist bloke
Was videoed paying for coke.
He practised his lines
Ignoring the signs
His bank was effectively broke.
Welcome back, and glad you are back to health.
How are Gordons Eco-Towns progressing?
I'm sure no-one was offended by anything you posted!
Hence reducing the amount of building.
http://lauramcinerney.com/2013/11/19/i-won-dfe-must-release-free-school-application-forms/
That said, it's not THAT extreme now. The Tories have 26% support in today's YG in the North of England, whlie Labour has 24% in the non-London south. Neither party exceeds 49% anywhere, so the ratios are never more than 2:1. Scotland is of course a special case.
Rev Flowers was caught out at the weekend, but the one-off line of behaviour or error of judgement is trotted out.
The next question is who will he drag down in the process.
Like the Co op - no sign of any Balls.
Organisations, whether political parties, banks, public sector bodies or private sector firms, which forget this basic lesson end up in trouble.
Quite why anyone thought Flowers suitable is a mystery but not so much of a mystery when you realise that too many appointments in recent times have ignored integrity and competence when decisions were made.
It would be good if people now remembered this. That applies - in the political world - to Cameron appointing his friends and Labour with their diversity obsessions. There are far far too many incompetent and/or dishonest people in positions of responsibility in this country.
A bit of self-knowledge by MPs wouldn't go amiss either.
What a contrast with Falkirk...
'Good grief - Flowers appears to have quit Hampshire, after he was convicted of gross misconduct in a public loo – quit Bradford, after downloading smut on a work computer and quit the Co-op bank, after losing £700 million – who on earth thought this chap was suitable for any position of authority?'
Any news of his impact on Labour's finance & Industry Board?
Cameron's party got 36.1% of the vote
Brown's party got 29.0% of the vote
Result: Cameron beat Brown by 7.1%
Cameron's party got 306 seats
Brown's party got 258 seats
Results: Cameron beat Brown by 48 seats
Cameron's party gained 97 seats
Brown's party lost 91 seats
Result: Cameron beat Brown on seats changing hands by net 188 seats
Cameron became PM following the election
Brown was PM prior to the election
Result: Cameron beat Brown out of office
On what possible metric did Brown beat Cameron?
Cameron hasn't done that. Yet.
No, perhaps best not go further.
Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
Nigel Farage has undergone major spinal surgery today and he is recovering well after his operation at a hospital in London.
Their votes are dense ?
Mr. K, hope Farage makes a full and speedy recovery.
Edited extra bit: also, there's a rumour Hulkenberg and Perez will go to Force India. That's a bit weird, as Sutil has a contract with someone, and it sounded like it was with Force India.
Maybe the coalition changes things.... But the Labour party are unlikely to have more than 36% of all cllrs going into GE2015 whilst the Conservatives will have 40%+ and the Lib Dems probably 11%. Milliband will probably have a lower % of cllrs than Kinnock.
Currently its C 42%, Lab 33.0%, LD 12%.
But records are there to be broken.
Really enjoyed recording Desert Island Discs today after a weekend rummaging through family record collection. Choices revealed on Sunday.
Should keep Ed in hiding for another week.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
I don't need to "like" my govt in exactly the same way I don't have to like my Doctor or Bank Manager. I just want them to be good at their job.
He always was and he always will be.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25006511
I could certainly imagine voting for a National Liberal candidate... I guess reviving the Liberal Unionists would be just beyond the pale
(I'll get my coat, for anyone that is paying attention)
*chortle*
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/life/property/article3925673.ece
Go Liverpool!
'You can look at one poll or you can look at them all and the trend to find the blindingly obvious answer.'
And yet the 'Yes' to independence polling in Scotland is even worse and you still appear to be optimistic,or has the long trend of polls for 'No' changed your mind?.
But in a way that forces parties to reach out - or should do. Just as Labour realised post 1992 that they had to appeal beyond their core, the Tories need to do the same. Their problem is that they are not doing that and, therefore, will find it very difficult to win. It could be argued that FPTP imposes a discipline on parties that would not be there otherwise and those parties that don't listen to that lesson deserve to shrivel and die.
Just a thought, anyway.
Off home now so will check in later to see what, if anything, anyone thinks of this.
Because the tv series is being shown on BBC4 tonight while the new film is on Film4.
My favourite character is the drunken womanising fantasist who gets up to various misdeeds in South-East Asia under the name of Thomas.
He reminds me of someone ;-)
The Winter of Discount Meth..
Its a bit like deprived areas in this country which have had a labour mp and a labour council for decades, Nothing ever changes, the areas remain deprived, despite this people will vote labour till the day they die.
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/mitt-romney-barack-obama-2012-election-poll-100044.html?hp=r6
OllyT Most SDP voters preferred Thatcher to Kinnock and Foot
The fact is the kippers are well, well above 3% and show sign of ever dropping down to those kind of 2010 levels thanks to the incompetent fop Cammie.
Quango
Charity (government funded)
Charity (other)
Guardian
BBC
EU