She was an old university friend of William Hague' s with Nicola Horlick in Chelsea and Fulham and Chuka Umunna in Cities of London and Westminster (both in the 20 local authorities with the highest Remain voted in the EU referendum and win by the LDs in the European Parliament elections) it seems the LDs are saving their star new candidates for central London, Remain central
The Good Lady Wifi met her when Horlick was trying to set up a film fund.
We'll leave it there.
Horlick's ability to manage the press is far in excess of her ability to make money for her clients.
She's a very nice lady (close friend of my uncle's) but not the "superwoman" she is made out to be.
Blimey @Charles is there anyone in the Establishment you or your family don't know?
I hope you realise how privileged you are compared to the vast mass of the population!
My opinion, put briefly, of several of the main Democratic candidates.
Bernie Sanders. Much love. Too old. Not well.
Joe Biden. Good fellow. Too vague. Too old.
Kamala Harris. Splendid, but maybe a little psychologically vulnerable. I can't say if that would a plus or minus with the voters.
Elizabeth Warren. She is a tough cookie and intelligent and so can learn from her mistakes---for instance her red Indian blunder. She wouldn't take any shit from Trump.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
Sinn Fein will come around as it let’s the IRA add tariff arbitrage to their existing funding sources of vat and duty smuggling. Which by the way no one seems to really care enough about right now to “impose a hard border”.
We’ve got a few weeks of charade to go through with people trying to look tough. And it can still go wrong if someone wobbles. But seems clear Ireland/Europe looked at the British polls and decided to cash their chips, in case come the spring there’s a Eurozone recession.
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
Foster & Varadkar are the ones that need to thrash this out, Johnson & Junker are pretty much side passengers at this point.
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
Boris is (I think) trying to ensure he has all the Spartans publically on board so he can throw the DUP under the bus and move to NI referendum, not DUP veto. Or, possibly, Arlene gets serious jam tomorrow for agreeing. The bridge as a formal Tory manifesto pledge for example
Also, the agrifoods stuff is an Arlene lovechild so she does have some skin in the game
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Back in the Summer Portillo and @HYUFD were telling us Boris and Cummings wanted a NI only backstop confirmed by a NI refernedum.
That's where the "Stormont veto" looks certain to end up, IMO.
I'm sure a fudge can be found on the "border infrastructure" issue.
If BoZo wants a deal, he will ask for an extension...
Wait, I thought the future relationship was to be negotiated after the withdrawal agreement because of the EU’s blessed sequencing rules?
Yes, this is about passing a Withdrawal Agreement so we can then move on to the future relationship (which Boris seems to want to be a Canada++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++) style FTA for the UK minus NI)
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
Foster & Varadkar are the ones that need to thrash this out, Johnson & Junker are pretty much side passengers at this point.
Both skating on fairly thin political ice at the moment. The biggie for Forster is that she knows that if she isn't absolute some bogeyman from the REALLY hard line Unionists will sabotage her. That that might wreck the DUP doesn't seem to matter. After all, it wrecked the Ulster Unionist Party. Varadkar runs a minority government. If Fianna Fáil withdrew support it could fall, either to an election or to Fianna Fáil led Coalition.
In my experience, the "average leave supporter" is a perfectly pleasant person who feels leaving the EU will make Britain more able to act independently via institutions which are more accountable to the public without appreciable negative economic impact.
I disagree with that position on the basis I believe we'll lose influence within Europe, and be more susceptible to global forces beyond our control. I also think we would be better seeking to reform domestic and EU institutions to make them more accountable (both need a lot of work) and that the economic consequences will be substantial. But it's an honest disagreement between decent people - the "average leave supporter" is very much like me but with a different view.
That is good to read and hopefully true. However a lot of those vox pops of Leavers on the TV that you see - oh dear. Perhaps they are chosen to have that effect. Rather like the old freak shows which these days thankfully are not legal. In which case shame on the broadcasters.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Back in the Summer Portillo and @HYUFD were telling us Boris and Cummings wanted a NI only backstop confirmed by a NI refernedum.
That's where the "Stormont veto" looks certain to end up, IMO.
I'm sure a fudge can be found on the "border infrastructure" issue.
Good post , I agree the border infrastructure can be fudged. But the DUP veto can’t .
The problem though is removing that could see them pull support and then like a pack of cards the ERG follow.
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
Foster & Varadkar are the ones that need to thrash this out, Johnson & Junker are pretty much side passengers at this point.
That's what should have been done from the start!
May should have said to Barnier from the start that she'd deal with everything else but the Irish Parties across communities and borders needed to agree an Irish solution and the UK and EU should help that but will respect whatever they agree.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Back in the Summer Portillo and @HYUFD were telling us Boris and Cummings wanted a NI only backstop confirmed by a NI refernedum.
That's where the "Stormont veto" looks certain to end up, IMO.
I'm sure a fudge can be found on the "border infrastructure" issue.
Good post , I agree the border infrastructure can be fudged. But the DUP veto can’t .
The problem though is removing that could see them pull support and then like a pack of cards the ERG follow.
I think the ERG will largely stick with it as they see the prize of a Canada+ style FTA waiting once the WA is passed.
The DUP is more of a problem but Arlene is still getting some of her favoured outcomes like the agri-food stuff and as already noted Arlene and Nicola may soon have a bridge to one another (or at least the promise of one at some point)
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Refusing the election was a stupid mistake.
I don't think they will get another chance until Q2 next year at the earliest. Meanwhile both sides will nibble away at their vote, might even see a sub 20% poll.
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
Foster & Varadkar are the ones that need to thrash this out, Johnson & Junker are pretty much side passengers at this point.
That's what should have been done from the start!
May should have said to Barnier from the start that she'd deal with everything else but the Irish Parties across communities and borders needed to agree an Irish solution and the UK and EU should help that but will respect whatever they agree.
That sounds lovely but without the rUK the Unionists are a significant minority in an island of Ireland context Thus they tend to prefer all UK solutions - at least when it suits them. Without the intervention of BOTH governments he GFA (practically the only agreement that has had support across both sections of the community in NI ever) there would have been no GFA. Without GB propping it up there never would have been an NI.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Refusing the election was a stupid mistake.
Not least because it is obvious Jezza has had enough and an early election gets it all over with for him.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
Lady Hermon, in the HoC, laying down the law to Boris; the majority in N Ireland voted to remain, and the DUP do not have a majority of votes in N Ireland. Or words to that effect.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
Lady Hermon, in the HoC, laying down the law to Boris; the majority in N Ireland voted to remain, and the DUP do not have a majority of votes in N Ireland. Or words to that effect.
And remember, Sinn Fein are willing to work with opposition parties to ensure the DUP lose seats at the next election.
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
In my experience, the "average leave supporter" is a perfectly pleasant person who feels leaving the EU will make Britain more able to act independently via institutions which are more accountable to the public without appreciable negative economic impact.
I disagree with that position on the basis I believe we'll lose influence within Europe, and be more susceptible to global forces beyond our control. I also think we would be better seeking to reform domestic and EU institutions to make them more accountable (both need a lot of work) and that the economic consequences will be substantial. But it's an honest disagreement between decent people - the "average leave supporter" is very much like me but with a different view.
That is good to read and hopefully true. However a lot of those vox pops of Leavers on the TV that you see - oh dear. Perhaps they are chosen to have that effect. Rather like the old freak shows which these days thankfully are not legal. In which case shame on the broadcasters.
Of course they pick the most extreme cases on either side, that’s what drives tv and social media. Thoughtful discussion can only be found... I don’t know where 🤷🏻♂️
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
Quite. And while the Boris fan club on here are pleasuring one another over this proposal it remains the fact that (1) it’s not guaranteed (although I concede it’s more likely now ) to get through our Parliament (2) IMHO it’s unlikely to get past the EU Council and (3) noises from the EU Parliament don’t sound encouraging either. As for “compromise” - this has been sold as a “final offer” - or are we not to believe that?
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
Quite. And while the Boris fan club on here are pleasuring one another over this proposal it remains the fact that (1) it’s not guaranteed (although I concede it’s more likely now ) to get through our Parliament (2) IMHO it’s unlikely to get past the EU Council and (3) noises from the EU Parliament don’t sound encouraging either. As for “compromise” - this has been sold as a “final offer” - or are we not to believe that?
The final offer stuff has been very furiously rowed back from, and the PM has said we will consider counter proposals etc.
If BoZo wants a deal, he will ask for an extension...
Wait, I thought the future relationship was to be negotiated after the withdrawal agreement because of the EU’s blessed sequencing rules?
I can see that if the WA is passed inc Backstop then Ireland and the EU may be willing to have Boris' proposals incorporated into the PD, allowing time for them to be fleshed out with the nessecary technical detail.
Quite clear Leo is moving towards a compromise. As for the Commons, it’s ready to vote overwhelmingly to Brexit.
Kay Burley seems heart broken. As good a signal as any to buy cable.
There is going to be a massive bout of depression for many Remainers if Boris pulls off a deal. They were crushed by the Referendum result, but have spent over three years thinking that, despite the vote, they could still defeat Brexit. They have invested huge energy in it. Marches, legal challenges, Tory Party splitting asunder, Boris going down in flames - it was all coming together, even a week ago. And now a slow, sickening realisation - all that hope could about to be dashed.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
Foster & Varadkar are the ones that need to thrash this out, Johnson & Junker are pretty much side passengers at this point.
That's what should have been done from the start!
May should have said to Barnier from the start that she'd deal with everything else but the Irish Parties across communities and borders needed to agree an Irish solution and the UK and EU should help that but will respect whatever they agree.
That sounds lovely but without the rUK the Unionists are a significant minority in an island of Ireland context Thus they tend to prefer all UK solutions - at least when it suits them. Without the intervention of BOTH governments he GFA (practically the only agreement that has had support across both sections of the community in NI ever) there would have been no GFA. Without GB propping it up there never would have been an NI.
That's incredibly condescending and disrespectful.
The Unionists are not some inconsequential community and Trimble and co were instrumental in agreeing the GFA - without the support of BOTH communities there would have been no GFA. Any agreement now should have always been conditional on cross-community support like the GFA itself.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
I think it will be more Boris deal than May's, in that the end the point will be an FTA for the UK minus NI rather than the close alignment, BINO that May wanted.
NI will stay much more closely aligned though, confirmed with an NI Only referendum.
And then to placate Arlene we'll try and build a bridge from NI to Scotland. I'm sure Nicola will love that...
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
Quite. And while the Boris fan club on here are pleasuring one another over this proposal it remains the fact that (1) it’s not guaranteed (although I concede it’s more likely now ) to get through our Parliament (2) IMHO it’s unlikely to get past the EU Council and (3) noises from the EU Parliament don’t sound encouraging either. As for “compromise” - this has been sold as a “final offer” - or are we not to believe that?
Yeah, compromise means "we want a deal over no deal, but not any deal over no deal".
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
You forgot to add the LibDems out there selling the reconditoned Betamax recorders of Rejoin......
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
I am nodding to all this
Haven't we been here all before with May's deal?
I just don't see it jumping all the hurdles. ERG and DUP will buckle at any counter proposal EU suggest to make this deal acceptable, EU won't accept it as it currently is now.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
3 or 4 is fine by me. 4 would deliver the consensus from the referendum; out of the EU but not a big display of crashing out / realignment that Leave politicians have turned their "mandate" into.
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
Quite. And while the Boris fan club on here are pleasuring one another over this proposal it remains the fact that (1) it’s not guaranteed (although I concede it’s more likely now ) to get through our Parliament (2) IMHO it’s unlikely to get past the EU Council and (3) noises from the EU Parliament don’t sound encouraging either. As for “compromise” - this has been sold as a “final offer” - or are we not to believe that?
Final offers dont really exist in this kind of scenario. They are just code for we really dont want to move very far on this and wont do quickly.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
I am nodding to all this
Haven't we been here all before with May's deal?
I just don't see it jumping all the hurdles. ERG and DUP will buckle at any counter proposal EU suggest to make this deal acceptable, EU won't accept it as it currently is now.
Theyll get to somewhere that's a backstop but not called a backstop and time limited. They all want this done and over.
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
ROFL
Do you know what black is?
It's white!
The amount of effort the Brexiteers are putting into convincing themselves this deal isn't deader than May's is unconvincing...
Regarding the "arrangements" for the island of Ireland in Johnson's proposal: does the Stormont [ and therefore, the DUP ] have an effective veto ? If so, why should the RoI accept this after almost 100 years of independence.
We won't know Varadkar's true opinion till Juncker has given it to him.
Offensive shitty post that typifies the nationalistic, patronising, and borderline racism of the average leave supporter.
As a Remainer myself, I do think BOTH sides need to dial back this language.
In my experience, the "average leave supporter" is a perfectly pleasant person who feels leaving the EU will make Britain more able to act independently via institutions which are more accountable to the public without appreciable negative economic impact.
I disagree with that position on the basis I believe we'll lose influence within Europe, and be more susceptible to global forces beyond our control. I also think we would be better seeking to reform domestic and EU institutions to make them more accountable (both need a lot of work) and that the economic consequences will be substantial. But it's an honest disagreement between decent people - the "average leave supporter" is very much like me but with a different view.
Finally, I anyway very much doubt that online comments by those motivated to make them are likely to be representative of the "average leave voter" or indeed "average remain voter".
Sorry, I shouldn't have said the "average" leave supporter, that was wrong. I am sure such average person can be fine and pleasant when it suits them. Start talking about foreigners, the EU and in particular the Irish and many, if not a majority of leave supporters turn into very unpleasant borderline racists, and that post that I commented on is an example of such. As someone with maternal Irish ancestry, I find it very offensive, and will call it out as such.
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
ROFL
Do you know what black is?
It's white!
The amount of effort the Brexiteers are putting into convincing themselves this deal isn't deader than May's is unconvincing...
You're going to be utterly heartbroken aren't you if this deal gets through?
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
Quite. And while the Boris fan club on here are pleasuring one another over this proposal it remains the fact that (1) it’s not guaranteed (although I concede it’s more likely now ) to get through our Parliament (2) IMHO it’s unlikely to get past the EU Council and (3) noises from the EU Parliament don’t sound encouraging either. As for “compromise” - this has been sold as a “final offer” - or are we not to believe that?
The final offer stuff has been very furiously rowed back from, and the PM has said we will consider counter proposals etc.
How much a step is it from "all island regulatory zone" to "...and customs zone"?
They have broken the back of the opposition to a border in the Irish Sea so it is the obvious next move.
Mr. JS, I don't watch quiz shows much but I saw some of Deal or No Deal years ago.
The segment I saw was bizarre, like tribal chanting. People, apparently aware that incantations aren't magic, were chanting something like "low, low, low" when a box was opened.
....
Very odd.
But then, I don't get why people feel the need to offer sports advice to the television.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
So let's get this straight:
1. A deal = no deal 2. Final offer = a new offer after that.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
I think it will be more Boris deal than May's, in that the end the point will be an FTA for the UK minus NI rather than the close alignment, BINO that May wanted.
NI will stay much more closely aligned though, confirmed with an NI Only referendum.
And then to placate Arlene we'll try and build a bridge from NI to Scotland. I'm sure Nicola will love that...
The bridge to be paid for by the UK. Unless Scotland is independent by the time it is to be built. In which case, Scotland gets to pick up the tab....
Foster & Varadkar are the ones that need to thrash this out, Johnson & Junker are pretty much side passengers at this point.
That's what should have been done from the start!
May should have said to Barnier from the start that she'd deal with everything else but the Irish Parties across communities and borders needed to agree an Irish solution and the UK and EU should help that but will respect whatever they agree.
That sounds lovely but without the rUK the Unionists are a significant minority in an island of Ireland context Thus they tend to prefer all UK solutions - at least when it suits them. Without the intervention of BOTH governments he GFA (practically the only agreement that has had support across both sections of the community in NI ever) there would have been no GFA. Without GB propping it up there never would have been an NI.
That's incredibly condescending and disrespectful.
The Unionists are not some inconsequential community and Trimble and co were instrumental in agreeing the GFA - without the support of BOTH communities there would have been no GFA. Any agreement now should have always been conditional on cross-community support like the GFA itself.
The contribution of Ulster Protestants to the U.K. is undeniable - George Best alone is a contribution the like of which England had not managed. Nevertheless, however unpalatable it is to you, it’s undeniable that NI only exists as an entity through the financial and military intervention of London. It’s very existence was forced on the island of Ireland through the threat from Lloyd George of “terrible and immediate” war.
I don’t disagree that the GFA needed both communities, but without London imposing an artificial border carving out 2/3 of Ulster against the wishes of the then jurisdiction Ireland as a unit, and indeed against the wishes of the historic province of Ulster as a whole (Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan being excluded as they would have meant a nationalist majority if kept in) there would have been no need for a peace process in the first place. Ireland was a single jurisdiction broken up against its will. Leavers would do well to remember that when they complain of NI being “annexed” by the EU. In a historically just world it would still be part of the RoI - but we are where we are and compromises are needed. That’s what led to the GFA.
Lady Hermon, in the HoC, laying down the law to Boris; the majority in N Ireland voted to remain, and the DUP do not have a majority of votes in N Ireland. Or words to that effect.
And remember, Sinn Fein are willing to work with opposition parties to ensure the DUP lose seats at the next election.
The only seat where Sinn Fein stepping down would help beat the DUP is Belfast South. (I assume they wouldn't step aside in Belfast North as they would still habve hopes of winning it)
Now if they stood aside in their own seats for an anti Brexit candidate, then there could be 8 more remain votes in Parliament, but the financial impact of losing the allowances for MPs probably rules that out.
Reading between the lines of Varadkar and Coveney, plus the non wingnut EU responses, an NI referendum or somehow diluting the DUP veto and somehow guaranteeing no infrastructure around customs are the blocks. Fix them and we may be out on Halloween
Yup. There was convivial language. Talk of “teasing out detail”. “Reassured by PMs remarks this morning”.
There’s a reason why J-Corbz looked so dejected on the front bench today, as Labour MPs one after another defied his whip removal threat to line up behind this.
Of course the pretty unanimous Tory support makes it very very hard for them to now not back the deal if there is further 'compromise'. I suspect that may be why the DUP were not there this morning, they know it may move too far for them to say yes. Boris is trying to corral and lock in the Spartans
I was thinking this. He puts a proposal forward that gets the DUP and ERG on board. Then when it (inevitably) gets 'tweaked' by the EU, they are stuck. They've been outflanked, like JC has been (who should've took the election last month) and now all sides are stuck 'agreeing' with the detail when the final version could look nothing like Boris' initial proposal (and much more like TM's Deal).
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
You forgot to add the LibDems out there selling the reconditoned Betamax recorders of Rejoin......
Aye. I do wonder what their position will be if we Brexit. Rejoin might be interesting, but it'll never win them a GE in the near term.
Isn’t the WA agreed by the council, and not be Parliament?
Parliament has a veto.
Right, it mentions the council has to seek their consent.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Why, our parliament was willing to vote down something our government, the council and the EU parliament agreed on? Parliaments like being taken seriously, as representative bodies that is their job. Ignore them at your peril.
Quite. And while the Boris fan club on here are pleasuring one another over this proposal it remains the fact that (1) it’s not guaranteed (although I concede it’s more likely now ) to get through our Parliament (2) IMHO it’s unlikely to get past the EU Council and (3) noises from the EU Parliament don’t sound encouraging either. As for “compromise” - this has been sold as a “final offer” - or are we not to believe that?
The final offer stuff has been very furiously rowed back from, and the PM has said we will consider counter proposals etc.
How much a step is it from "all island regulatory zone" to "...and customs zone"?
They have broken the back of the opposition to a border in the Irish Sea so it is the obvious next move.
Yes. And then you can change the polarity on Stormont's oversight, so that it would require a positive vote to exit the arrangements, and you would have a deal that Ireland could agree to.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
So let's get this straight:
1. A deal = no deal 2. Final offer = a new offer after that.
What?
1. No a deal is not no deal. But being serious on no deal makes an acceptable deal more likely.
2. Final offer = a formal agreement hopefully based on this offer. Its an offer to get things talking and if tweaks are needed then they can be considered but if this offer gets rejected out of hand then that's it there will be no further offers.
I'm guessing the EU is leaning on Ireland a bit behind the scenes. Obviously they're 100% backing them in public.
Yeah, varadkars language this morning was more concilliatory. It may also be him and Johnson agreed last night some, as yet undisclosed, amended version of the Johnson plan might be good to go and we now have 2 weeks of show talks to get there.
Exactly! The key to getting a compromise is to both find what you can agree and a face-saving way to get there.
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
I thought this was a final offer?
Do you know what a final offer is?
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
So let's get this straight:
1. A deal = no deal 2. Final offer = a new offer after that.
What?
1. No a deal is not no deal. But being serious on no deal makes an acceptable deal more likely.
2. Final offer = a formal agreement hopefully based on this offer. Its an offer to get things talking and if tweaks are needed then they can be considered but if this offer gets rejected out of hand then that's it there will be no further offers.
You were telling us the other day that the conservative manifesto pledge of a deal ("to deliver the best possible deal") included no deal.
Comments
I hope you realise how privileged you are compared to the vast mass of the population!
Bernie Sanders. Much love. Too old. Not well.
Joe Biden. Good fellow. Too vague. Too old.
Kamala Harris. Splendid, but maybe a little psychologically vulnerable. I can't say if that would a plus or minus with the voters.
Elizabeth Warren. She is a tough cookie and intelligent and so can learn from her mistakes---for instance her red Indian blunder. She wouldn't take any shit from Trump.
We’ve got a few weeks of charade to go through with people trying to look tough. And it can still go wrong if someone wobbles. But seems clear Ireland/Europe looked at the British polls and decided to cash their chips, in case come the spring there’s a Eurozone recession.
That’s the problem . Because there’s no chance of a deal otherwise.
You simply can’t allow them a veto , essentially they can hold the other NI parties to ransom every 4 years , indeed this backstop lite even to get started needs approval before the end of the transition period .
I think this is the biggest issue rather than customs , because business will have a constant cloud of uncertainty .
If BoZo wants a deal, he will ask for an extension...
Or, possibly, Arlene gets serious jam tomorrow for agreeing. The bridge as a formal Tory manifesto pledge for example
Also, the agrifoods stuff is an Arlene lovechild so she does have some skin in the game
That's where the "Stormont veto" looks certain to end up, IMO.
I'm sure a fudge can be found on the "border infrastructure" issue.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7533263/Flight-shaming-hits-air-travel-One-five-cutting-flying-environmental-damage.html
It’s a much more distant one where the UK diverges widely from the EU. And that’s why giving the DUP a veto will cause huge problems down the line .
Varadkar runs a minority government. If Fianna Fáil withdrew support it could fall, either to an election or to Fianna Fáil led Coalition.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1179734242739269639
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1179725592083738624
The problem though is removing that could see them pull support and then like a pack of cards the ERG follow.
May should have said to Barnier from the start that she'd deal with everything else but the Irish Parties across communities and borders needed to agree an Irish solution and the UK and EU should help that but will respect whatever they agree.
Have you read ANY of the posts from Europe?
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179764577141235712
The DUP is more of a problem but Arlene is still getting some of her favoured outcomes like the agri-food stuff and as already noted Arlene and Nicola may soon have a bridge to one another (or at least the promise of one at some point)
https://twitter.com/rachaelvenables/status/1179758837924089856
That always makes me feel better
Johnson did this perfectly - speak to everyone, tease them out, get their details. Now there's a starting point and the parties are inching towards each other.
It could all still go horribly wrong, but it could also be very good for Boris. 'Delivers'* Brexit and then smashes Labour next May in the GE.
* By deliver, I mean take us out on Theresa May's deal.
Or words to that effect.
Edit: although I find it hard to believe they’d veto something the council and the U.K. agree on.
Somehow I don't think Brexiteers making them a cup of tea and asking "You OK, hun?" is going to lift them.
The Unionists are not some inconsequential community and Trimble and co were instrumental in agreeing the GFA - without the support of BOTH communities there would have been no GFA. Any agreement now should have always been conditional on cross-community support like the GFA itself.
NI will stay much more closely aligned though, confirmed with an NI Only referendum.
And then to placate Arlene we'll try and build a bridge from NI to Scotland. I'm sure Nicola will love that...
I just don't see it jumping all the hurdles. ERG and DUP will buckle at any counter proposal EU suggest to make this deal acceptable, EU won't accept it as it currently is now.
This offer can be taken then tweaked to get a deal based on this offer. That doesn't mean that there's a new offer afterwards. The offer is final but the words that get agreed will not be the words on this offer it will be tweaked and adopted then turned into legalese.
NOT THE PRAWN SANDWICHES!!!
Do you know what black is?
It's white!
The amount of effort the Brexiteers are putting into convincing themselves this deal isn't deader than May's is unconvincing...
I can see someone getting chinned within hours.
BoZo offered them a figleaf to hide their embarrassment. They pretended it was a laurel wreath.
....it's an M&S Extinction Rebellion blockade.
They have broken the back of the opposition to a border in the Irish Sea so it is the obvious next move.
The segment I saw was bizarre, like tribal chanting. People, apparently aware that incantations aren't magic, were chanting something like "low, low, low" when a box was opened.
....
Very odd.
But then, I don't get why people feel the need to offer sports advice to the television.
1. A deal = no deal
2. Final offer = a new offer after that.
Meanwhile, the Dow tumbles
(Though the ruddy red faced imperalist gammon in me likes number 2)!
I don’t disagree that the GFA needed both communities, but without London imposing an artificial border carving out 2/3 of Ulster against the wishes of the then jurisdiction Ireland as a unit, and indeed against the wishes of the historic province of Ulster as a whole (Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan being excluded as they would have meant a nationalist majority if kept in) there would have been no need for a peace process in the first place. Ireland was a single jurisdiction broken up against its will. Leavers would do well to remember that when they complain of NI being “annexed” by the EU. In a historically just world it would still be part of the RoI - but we are where we are and compromises are needed. That’s what led to the GFA.
Now if they stood aside in their own seats for an anti Brexit candidate, then there could be 8 more remain votes in Parliament, but the financial impact of losing the allowances for MPs probably rules that out.
1. No a deal is not no deal. But being serious on no deal makes an acceptable deal more likely.
2. Final offer = a formal agreement hopefully based on this offer. Its an offer to get things talking and if tweaks are needed then they can be considered but if this offer gets rejected out of hand then that's it there will be no further offers.
Final offer in human means we ain't budging.