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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination
Two national polls and a couple of state surveys in the last 2-days have shown that Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is heading the field, by a clear margin, in the fight to be the Democratic nominee in next year’s White House Race. This is a big change for until now the former VP, Joe Biden, had dominated just about all the surveys.
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For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.
http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/
https://twitter.com/hottakebob/status/1179551814586454017?s=19
Fortunately the decision to vote against Trump is one most can make in their sleep.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/andrew-yang-fundraising-third-quarter-022493
Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?
Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?
Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?
Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.
Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?
We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-49915034
Single malt Scotch whisky targeted by United States tariffs
How do you manage to miss a target as big as the Treasury Building when you are spraying an entire Fire Engine full of fake blood?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHJ7Zn8Sa0E
At least this time they weren't preventing ambulances getting to emergencies or causing cancer patients to miss their treatment.
Am I right in thinking that during the transition period for this deal (as with May's deal) there will be no changes to our trading arrangements with the EU?
Elizabeth Warren is John Kerry or Michael Dukakis in a skirt, a harder sell than Obama's VP
I remain deeply unconvinced that Warren is capable of beating Trump.
The next crunch point will be the end of the transition period then (31 Dec 2020?) when a FTA needs to be agreed. But that could be a new government and might not need HoC approval.
I remain a Remainer but I would have been happy with May's Deal and subject to the NI detail, I'd be ok if this one was agreed.
We could maybe move on to all those lovely Tory spending promises then
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1179726380998811648
Darn it, that's the second time today I have to agree with @Philip_Thompson!
I much prefer it when we're arguing
The real challenge for Johnson now is deciding when to walk away. He needs to get the timing just right. The more he says that progress is being made, the more emollient the EU is, the harder it will be for him to storm off and convince any but the most credulous that this is not what he had been planning all along.
Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.
If a deal is done along the lines of Johnson's proposal but more time is required for ratification then I think Boris could reasonably declare Mission Accomplished and allow time for a short extension.
2: This has dragged on long enough now.
3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
Boot EDGE EDGE is polling around 10 in Iowa and looks cheap enough at 18.5 to add stocks of.
Hillary Clinton is the clear sell of the year at 20.
She similarly proposed changes to the WDA. She went to the EU, but didn't get them. There is nothing to suggest Boris will have any more luck.
Feels like a game of bluff and blame.
https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1179422425144016904
IMO the deal that could get done is as follows -
1. WA with backstop changed to NI only and with a 5 to 7 year time limit.
2. PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA. No SM. No CU.
If I see moves in this direction I will start to believe that he is going for a deal - but not before.
They gambled losing Brexit, won, and to boot managed to get their man installed in Number 10.
All this posturing is just talking to ourselves again. I may be wrong but Ireland rejected Lisbon (largely over the principle of neutrality) despite the level of subsidy they then had and I have little doubt they will equally reject this on principle. Money is secondary.
So how much money has been offered to the DUP ? They don't vote with you if they are not paid.
I look forward to Warren Trump debates. She knows how to wind him up, and his fuse is shorter now.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-horlick-city-superwoman-unveiled-as-latest-highprofile-candidate-standing-for-lib-dems-in-a4253271.html
In which case Johnson will have a decision to make.
My view is that he will call it off, pronounce the EU as not serious and resume agitation for an election. He will refuse to extend and the Benn Act will be enforced over his head by the courts. He will not resign. There will be no VONC.
So, November, we are still in the EU and are also up to our necks in a constitutional crisis.
And the whole thing will slide into 2020.
Keeps his Party together. Gives him a line to use in the election.
"This is a Tory Brexit. Everything that goes wrong in our country after we have left the EU lies at the door of the Tories. Every lost job, every lost opportunity, every dashed dream - blame the Tories..."
All happening for the big three.