I genuinely think that the last thing Boris wants is No Deal and the primary thing he wants is a successful (long) term as PM. Cummings is not a no-dealer either.
My guess is that Boris hopes to win a GE with a significant majority. A majority of 30-40 perhaps... one that emasculates the ERG. He'll feel that a majority will give him a chance of getting a better deal because he'll a) be able to convincingly tell the EU he can get it through parliament and b) convincingly tell them he'll leave with No Deal. In that scenario I reckon he'd reach a deal that most would consider adequate, with only the FBPE hardcore and Farage hugely pissed off. Boris will consider himself able to squish Farage because he outdoes him on the celebrity anti-establishment front.
Given the miserable (impossible) cards he had to play when he came to power this would be a great outcome for him and the country. It's still a long way off but so far, pretty well played.
Fwiw, Henry Kissinger thought the best negotiators he encountered were the Chinese. The method was invariably the same. They first told you what they wanted. When you turned that down, they then skipped immediately to the minimum they would accept. They never budged from that, except in the very tiniest detail.
The advantage of this approach was that you knew quickly and precisely what their final position was and there was no point in arguing with that. You either accepted it, or walked a way. Saved a lot of time, and got both sides a lot of deals that might otherwise have been elusive because of uncertainty over where the bottom line stood.
Does that make them good negotiators, though?
It's an efficient approach, certainly, but there is quite a bit of merit in NOT saying what my bottom line is as I may very well get more playing my cards close to my chest.
To give an example, it'd be an eccentric Moroccan market trader who said (and meant) "I want $100 for it", customer says "no", they say, "okay my bottom line is $20" as they'd miss a fairly good chance of getting $50 after a slower process of haggling. Sure, the more traditional trader would sometimes miss out on a deal that would've been acceptable if the customer gets bored and wanders off at $40. But my guess is these guys are following an optimal strategy.
That's not to say that a more Chinese approach wouldn't have helped over Brexit. The process of reaching any deal has been painful, and there may well be a No Deal because people have misjudged each other's bottom line. But is it an optimal approach as a strict rule? Maybe not.
Why on earth would they want to join the world's largest free-trade group? Aren't they aware of the loss of sovereignity?
Racist, I know... but my Kurdish buddy said the Albanians are absolutely terrifying. He said on the drugs, people trafficking, gangsta front they are the business. He said DO NOT MESS with them. He said they've got a foothold in London and they take no prisoners.
Just as an aside, if Boris Johnson were to leave Downing Street shortly, who would be best placed to succeed him?
Gove?
The government would be resigning.
The is absolutely zero point in any Conservative signing the extension because it will not change a thing.
If we are at a point where an extension is being signed then there is no possible deal that can be done with the current parliament...it would just be a delaying device for remainer MPs to buy time to come up with a way of stopping the UK leaving.
Any Tory signing the extension would be humiliated daily in parliament, humiliated in the country and humiliated by their own party as they were swiftly dispatched.
The only route out is the government resigning and forcing Corbyn to sign the surrender letter to the EU followed by an immediate 'People vs Traitors' GE.
The contribution of Ulster Protestants to the U.K. is undeniable - George Best alone is a contribution the like of which England had not managed. Nevertheless, however unpalatable it is to you, it’s undeniable that NI only exists as an entity through the financial and military intervention of London. It’s very existence was forced on the island of Ireland through the threat from Lloyd George of “terrible and immediate” war.
I don’t disagree that the GFA needed both communities, but without London imposing an artificial border carving out 2/3 of Ulster against the wishes of the then jurisdiction Ireland as a unit, and indeed against the wishes of the historic province of Ulster as a whole (Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan being excluded as they would have meant a nationalist majority if kept in) there would have been no need for a peace process in the first place. Ireland was a single jurisdiction broken up against its will. Leavers would do well to remember that when they complain of NI being “annexed” by the EU. In a historically just world it would still be part of the RoI - but we are where we are and compromises are needed. That’s what led to the GFA.
My understanding is that the bigger problem is not what was left out but what was kept in. The fear by those negotiating on the British side was that the 3 Protestant majority counties on their own would not form a viable province. Hence the addition of 3 majority Catholic counties on the understanding there would be an independent review and consultation to see if they should subsequently move to the South. The whole thing was a stitch up by Churchill and the British side.
Weren't there county by county referenda and much to everyone's surprise Fermanagh and Tyrone voted for N Ireland, whereas Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal voted for the Republic. AIUI, Donegal was a bit of a surprise. Whether the votes were 'free and fair', and what the numbers were, I don't know.
Not so far as I am aware, no. The initial boundary was drawn by Westminster in 1920. There was a boundary commission after the treaty was signed but it’s concussions (which involved NI taking a chunk of Donegal) were leaked and the resulting outcry meant that the conclusions were never implemented
Johnson mentioned the bung in his speech. He talked about big "investments" in Northern Ireland. Arlene is more expensive than the others he has encountered.
1. Just heard Stephen Kelly the Northern Irish business leader saying this new deal is unequivocally worse than May's deal and would cost 100,000 jobs in Northern Ireland.
2. Against that I read on the previous thread that BJO a Labour stalwart thinks BJ was brilliant today and Corbyn has to accept his new deal.
3. Logic would tell you that if Johnson gets this deal through theTories will win the coming General election comfortably.
4. Does BJO consider Leaving more important than preventing a Tory majority and do other Labour Leavers feel the same?
If Johnson wins this, a landslide waits. It also depends on how Swinson plays the game. So far she has been quite naïve. The SNP continues to impress. They must be secretly hoping Johnson's "deal" succeeds. It will open up a new argument for Scotland. Why should Scotland be treated differently to Northern Ireland ?
I agree. I thought Corbyn was right to say it was an unacceptable deal. i also agree that Nicola is in pole position to get pretty well whatever she likes. But why do so many Labour MPs and supporters seem to OK committing hara-Kiri?
I genuinely think that the last thing Boris wants is No Deal and the primary thing he wants is a successful (long) term as PM. Cummings is not a no-dealer either.
My guess is that Boris hopes to win a GE with a significant majority. A majority of 30-40 perhaps... one that emasculates the ERG. He'll feel that a majority will give him a chance of getting a better deal because he'll a) be able to convincingly tell the EU he can get it through parliament and b) convincingly tell them he'll leave with No Deal. In that scenario I reckon he'd reach a deal that most would consider adequate, with only the FBPE hardcore and Farage hugely pissed off. Boris will consider himself able to squish Farage because he outdoes him on the celebrity anti-establishment front.
Given the miserable (impossible) cards he had to play when he came to power this would be a great outcome for him and the country. It's still a long way off but so far, pretty well played.
BJ is the author of his political misfortune. He backed Leave so he could become PM. He removed the whip from 20 odd Tory MPs for doing something he had done himself only weeks ago. I used to vote Tory, I now turn the sound off when BJ is speaking. I loathe him and will not even consider voting Tory whilst he is at the helm. I know other lifelong Tories who will do the same, Labour voters are unlikley to support BJ in a GE. I suspect they will not vote instead of supporting a tory...
I genuinely think that the last thing Boris wants is No Deal and the primary thing he wants is a successful (long) term as PM. Cummings is not a no-dealer either.
My guess is that Boris hopes to win a GE with a significant majority. A majority of 30-40 perhaps... one that emasculates the ERG. He'll feel that a majority will give him a chance of getting a better deal because he'll a) be able to convincingly tell the EU he can get it through parliament and b) convincingly tell them he'll leave with No Deal. In that scenario I reckon he'd reach a deal that most would consider adequate, with only the FBPE hardcore and Farage hugely pissed off. Boris will consider himself able to squish Farage because he outdoes him on the celebrity anti-establishment front.
Given the miserable (impossible) cards he had to play when he came to power this would be a great outcome for him and the country. It's still a long way off but so far, pretty well played.
BJ is the author of his political misfortune. He backed Leave so he could become PM. He removed the whip from 20 odd Tory MPs for doing something he had done himself only weeks ago. I used to vote Tory, I now turn the sound off when BJ is speaking. I loathe him and will not even consider voting Tory whilst he is at the helm. I know other lifelong Tories who will do the same, Labour voters are unlikley to support BJ in a GE. I suspect they will not vote instead of supporting a tory...
I'm far from a Tory but warming to him. The large poll leads are testament to the fact he's not doing a bad job. I can't take Corbyn seriously and Farage and Swinson are 2nd tier players so it's a pretty straightforward Tory vote now for myself and many others.
I genuinely think that the last thing Boris wants is No Deal and the primary thing he wants is a successful (long) term as PM. Cummings is not a no-dealer either.
My guess is that Boris hopes to win a GE with a significant majority. A majority of 30-40 perhaps... one that emasculates the ERG. He'll feel that a majority will give him a chance of getting a better deal because he'll a) be able to convincingly tell the EU he can get it through parliament and b) convincingly tell them he'll leave with No Deal. In that scenario I reckon he'd reach a deal that most would consider adequate, with only the FBPE hardcore and Farage hugely pissed off. Boris will consider himself able to squish Farage because he outdoes him on the celebrity anti-establishment front.
Given the miserable (impossible) cards he had to play when he came to power this would be a great outcome for him and the country. It's still a long way off but so far, pretty well played.
The bigger the Tory majority at the next GE the more ERG it will be. They are going to lose most, if not all, of the current rebels, who will mostly be replaced by hardline alternatives, and in CCPs across the country BXP entrants will ensure that most gains wil be made by hardliners, too. The Tories in Parliament are going to change much quicker than whatever is left of the Labour party as most Labour MPs are winning their reselection battles. If Johnson continues to insist he is a One Nation Tory he is going to be in a minority on the Conservative benches.
Johnson mentioned the bung in his speech. He talked about big "investments" in Northern Ireland. Arlene is more expensive than the others he has encountered.
1. Just heard Stephen Kelly the Northern Irish business leader saying this new deal is unequivocally worse than May's deal and would cost 100,000 jobs in Northern Ireland.
2. Against that I read on the previous thread that BJO a Labour stalwart thinks BJ was brilliant today and Corbyn has to accept his new deal.
3. Logic would tell you that if Johnson gets this deal through theTories will win the coming General election comfortably.
4. Does BJO consider Leaving more important than preventing a Tory majority and do other Labour Leavers feel the same?
If Johnson wins this, a landslide waits. It also depends on how Swinson plays the game. So far she has been quite naïve. The SNP continues to impress. They must be secretly hoping Johnson's "deal" succeeds. It will open up a new argument for Scotland. Why should Scotland be treated differently to Northern Ireland ?
I agree. I thought Corbyn was right to say it was an unacceptable deal. i also agree that Nicola is in pole position to get pretty well whatever she likes. But why do so many Labour MPs and supporters seem to OK committing hara-Kiri?
They won’t will they. We have had this 30 to 50 talk before. At best it’s 3 to 5.
Because to follow Boris into Lobby and deliver his deal is the end of their career in the Labour Party.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
In other words you can see that this is really about positioning for an election - not getting a Deal - and you think it's working and will continue to work.
I genuinely think that the last thing Boris wants is No Deal and the primary thing he wants is a successful (long) term as PM. Cummings is not a no-dealer either.
My guess is that Boris hopes to win a GE with a significant majority. A majority of 30-40 perhaps... one that emasculates the ERG. He'll feel that a majority will give him a chance of getting a better deal because he'll a) be able to convincingly tell the EU he can get it through parliament and b) convincingly tell them he'll leave with No Deal. In that scenario I reckon he'd reach a deal that most would consider adequate, with only the FBPE hardcore and Farage hugely pissed off. Boris will consider himself able to squish Farage because he outdoes him on the celebrity anti-establishment front.
Given the miserable (impossible) cards he had to play when he came to power this would be a great outcome for him and the country. It's still a long way off but so far, pretty well played.
The bigger the Tory majority at the next GE the more ERG it will be. They are going to lose most, if not all, of the current rebels, who will mostly be replaced by hardline alternatives, and in CCPs across the country BXP entrants will ensure that most gains wil be made by hardliners, too. The Tories in Parliament are going to change much quicker than whatever is left of the Labour party as most Labour MPs are winning their reselection battles. If Johnson continues to insist he is a One Nation Tory he is going to be in a minority on the Conservative benches.
Or redefine one nation tory as english nationalism and hope to get away with it.
Mr. Egg, the territory covered by Macedonia/Albania today is unlikely to attain the heights it achieved under Alexander, it's true.
Though they would have the rotating presidency of a union around 90% of the size (and I always suspect the figure of the Macedonian empire to be rounded up).
Just as an aside, if Boris Johnson were to leave Downing Street shortly, who would be best placed to succeed him?
Gove?
The government would be resigning.
The is absolutely zero point in any Conservative signing the extension because it will not change a thing.
If we are at a point where an extension is being signed then there is no possible deal that can be done with the current parliament...it would just be a delaying device for remainer MPs to buy time to come up with a way of stopping the UK leaving.
Any Tory signing the extension would be humiliated daily in parliament, humiliated in the country and humiliated by their own party as they were swiftly dispatched.
The only route out is the government resigning and forcing Corbyn to sign the surrender letter to the EU followed by an immediate 'People vs Traitors' GE.
I dont think a "People vs. Traitors" election would work if a GNU is in power. The dynamic would change as the new PM would get public support. The reason the Tories are suseptable to the Brexit party is due to the Brexit supporting media. A GNU would present a real problem for the Brexit supporting media imo...
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Not really. It is quite amusing, if sad also. It is in fact the very epitome of the dolt Brexiter approach. Agree amongst themselves and deem said agreement a huge victory without ever engaging with their opposing number. Of course there is a mood of optimism amongst those for whom the world ends at Dover.
Quite depressing because as you astutely note, reality is likely to intrude shortly.
Of course it will, but the battle isn't going to end on Oct 31st. Boris knows that. His plan is to get a new GE where he can pit himself as a man of the people against the establishment, and it's going well on that front.
I was listening to R5 earlier and the narrative was very much that Boris has offered a sincere deal (with compromises) to the EU, that he has garnered parliamentary support, and is waiting to see if the EU accept.
On the premise that hardly anyone takes any notice of the vicissitudes of day-to-day politics, an overarching narrative of Boris trying his best to get a deal and the establishment against him is pretty simple and powerful.
Yes I agree with Boris'positioning but what's going to happen on Nov 1st?
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Not really. It is quite amusing, if sad also. It is in fact the very epitome of the dolt Brexiter approach. Agree amongst themselves and deem said agreement a huge victory without ever engaging with their opposing number. Of course there is a mood of optimism amongst those for whom the world ends at Dover.
Quite depressing because as you astutely note, reality is likely to intrude shortly.
Of course it will, but the battle isn't going to end on Oct 31st. Boris knows that. His plan is to get a new GE where he can pit himself as a man of the people against the establishment, and it's going well on that front.
I was listening to R5 earlier and the narrative was very much that Boris has offered a sincere deal (with compromises) to the EU, that he has garnered parliamentary support, and is waiting to see if the EU accept.
On the premise that hardly anyone takes any notice of the vicissitudes of day-to-day politics, an overarching narrative of Boris trying his best to get a deal and the establishment against him is pretty simple and powerful.
Yes I agree with Boris'positioning but what's going to happen on Nov 1st?
Well according to wor Dom we’re going to be spending the last week of October in the courts. 🤷♂️
Fwiw, Henry Kissinger thought the best negotiators he encountered were the Chinese. The method was invariably the same. They first told you what they wanted. When you turned that down, they then skipped immediately to the minimum they would accept. They never budged from that, except in the very tiniest detail.
The advantage of this approach was that you knew quickly and precisely what their final position was and there was no point in arguing with that. You either accepted it, or walked a way. Saved a lot of time, and got both sides a lot of deals that might otherwise have been elusive because of uncertainty over where the bottom line stood.
Does that make them good negotiators, though?
It's an efficient approach, certainly, but there is quite a bit of merit in NOT saying what my bottom line is as I may very well get more playing my cards close to my chest.
To give an example, it'd be an eccentric Moroccan market trader who said (and meant) "I want $100 for it", customer says "no", they say, "okay my bottom line is $20" as they'd miss a fairly good chance of getting $50 after a slower process of haggling. Sure, the more traditional trader would sometimes miss out on a deal that would've been acceptable if the customer gets bored and wanders off at $40. But my guess is these guys are following an optimal strategy.
That's not to say that a more Chinese approach wouldn't have helped over Brexit. The process of reaching any deal has been painful, and there may well be a No Deal because people have misjudged each other's bottom line. But is it an optimal approach as a strict rule? Maybe not.
If a Moroccan trader wanted $100 for anything the first counter offer should be $3 and a start towards the next stall.
The problem for die-hard Remainers is that Boris is winning the air-war.
I reckon 75% of the country just want to do a deal and get the whole miserable process on to the next stage and Boris is in control of the narrative, whereas May never was. He is seen out there as a man throwing the kitchen sink into doing a deal and, lo and behold, there is suddenly a possibility of one. People were quite chipper in work today about a deal being done.
Boris will likely be scuppered by the EU and parliament but he is winning the battle in the wider country to be seen as the patron saint of a deal. That's a big problem for those who are out to deny him getting one.
You can see by the rising Remainer angst and abuse that Boris scares the shit out of them.
Not really. It is quite amusing, if sad also. It is in fact the very epitome of the dolt Brexiter approach. Agree amongst themselves and deem said agreement a huge victory without ever engaging with their opposing number. Of course there is a mood of optimism amongst those for whom the world ends at Dover.
Quite depressing because as you astutely note, reality is likely to intrude shortly.
Of course it will, but the battle isn't going to end on Oct 31st. Boris knows that. His plan is to get a new GE where he can pit himself as a man of the people against the establishment, and it's going well on that front.
I was listening to R5 earlier and the narrative was very much that Boris has offered a sincere deal (with compromises) to the EU, that he has garnered parliamentary support, and is waiting to see if the EU accept.
On the premise that hardly anyone takes any notice of the vicissitudes of day-to-day politics, an overarching narrative of Boris trying his best to get a deal and the establishment against him is pretty simple and powerful.
Yes I agree with Boris'positioning but what's going to happen on Nov 1st?
Well according to wor Dom we’re going to be spending the last week of October in the courts. 🤷♂️
Yes. Hence I had thought the dial up of the riots rhetoric so that emergency powers could be imposed and then fought in the courts.
But I'm not so sure. It would be very unBritish of all the likely failures of that approach.
Mr. B, hmm. I'd want to check that figure (although I don't think it's wildly wrong).
Alexander's empire went from the Adriatic to the eastern border of modern day Pakistan, north into Afghanistan and south into Egypt. It was pretty bloody massive.
Fwiw, Henry Kissinger thought the best negotiators he encountered were the Chinese. The method was invariably the same. They first told you what they wanted. When you turned that down, they then skipped immediately to the minimum they would accept. They never budged from that, except in the very tiniest detail.
The advantage of this approach was that you knew quickly and precisely what their final position was and there was no point in arguing with that. You either accepted it, or walked a way. Saved a lot of time, and got both sides a lot of deals that might otherwise have been elusive because of uncertainty over where the bottom line stood.
Does that make them good negotiators, though?
It's an efficient approach, certainly, but there is quite a bit of merit in NOT saying what my bottom line is as I may very well get more playing my cards close to my chest.
To give an example, it'd be an eccentric Moroccan market trader who said (and meant) "I want $100 for it", customer says "no", they say, "okay my bottom line is $20" as they'd miss a fairly good chance of getting $50 after a slower process of haggling. Sure, the more traditional trader would sometimes miss out on a deal that would've been acceptable if the customer gets bored and wanders off at $40. But my guess is these guys are following an optimal strategy.
That's not to say that a more Chinese approach wouldn't have helped over Brexit. The process of reaching any deal has been painful, and there may well be a No Deal because people have misjudged each other's bottom line. But is it an optimal approach as a strict rule? Maybe not.
If a Moroccan trader wanted $100 for anything the first counter offer should be $3 and a start towards the next stall.
In my experience that tactic immediately produces a grab on the arm and a revised price of $20, which is probably about right.
Fwiw, Henry Kissinger thought the best negotiators he encountered were the Chinese. The method was invariably the same. They first told you what they wanted. When you turned that down, they then skipped immediately to the minimum they would accept. They never budged from that, except in the very tiniest detail.
The advantage of this approach was that you knew quickly and precisely what their final position was and there was no point in arguing with that. You either accepted it, or walked a way. Saved a lot of time, and got both sides a lot of deals that might otherwise have been elusive because of uncertainty over where the bottom line stood.
Does that make them good negotiators, though?
It's an efficient approach, certainly, but there is quite a bit of merit in NOT saying what my bottom line is as I may very well get more playing my cards close to my chest.
To give an example, it'd be an eccentric Moroccan market trader who said (and meant) "I want $100 for it", customer says "no", they say, "okay my bottom line is $20" as they'd miss a fairly good chance of getting $50 after a slower process of haggling. Sure, the more traditional trader would sometimes miss out on a deal that would've been acceptable if the customer gets bored and wanders off at $40. But my guess is these guys are following an optimal strategy.
That's not to say that a more Chinese approach wouldn't have helped over Brexit. The process of reaching any deal has been painful, and there may well be a No Deal because people have misjudged each other's bottom line. But is it an optimal approach as a strict rule? Maybe not.
If a Moroccan trader wanted $100 for anything the first counter offer should be $3 and a start towards the next stall.
In my experience that tactic immediately produces a grab on the arm and a revised price of $20, which is probably about right.
Looking at social media I think today's been a bad day for Johnson. Brexiteers are again saying no deal is the best deal, and the EU are dragging him into the weeds on his new offer. It will be hard for him to engineer a convincing last stand against then Benn Act.
The more that Boris and his current acolytes say this is a great proposal which would not only pass in the Commons but also that the EU is, or should be, almost ready to accept, the harder it is going to be to explain why the Benn Act was such an outrage and why invoking it is a terrible idea.
State of remainers on here 'looking at social media' to convince themselves how all this is awful for Boris. Whatever happened to the WA that was unequivocally not up for renegotiation (until it was)? Tragicomic.
I genuinely think that the last thing Boris wants is No Deal and the primary thing he wants is a successful (long) term as PM. Cummings is not a no-dealer either.
My guess is that Boris hopes to win a GE with a significant majority. A majority of 30-40 perhaps... one that emasculates the ERG. He'll feel that a majority will give him a chance of getting a better deal because he'll a) be able to convincingly tell the EU he can get it through parliament and b) convincingly tell them he'll leave with No Deal. In that scenario I reckon he'd reach a deal that most would consider adequate, with only the FBPE hardcore and Farage hugely pissed off. Boris will consider himself able to squish Farage because he outdoes him on the celebrity anti-establishment front.
Given the miserable (impossible) cards he had to play when he came to power this would be a great outcome for him and the country. It's still a long way off but so far, pretty well played.
Mr. B, hmm. I'd want to check that figure (although I don't think it's wildly wrong).
Alexander's empire went from the Adriatic to the eastern border of modern day Pakistan, north into Afghanistan and south into Egypt. It was pretty bloody massive.
His empire only goes from NI to Great Britain shortly to lose at least two of its constituent parts or have I got the wrong Alexander?
Comments
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1179792441127440386
Gove?
I genuinely think that the last thing Boris wants is No Deal and the primary thing he wants is a successful (long) term as PM. Cummings is not a no-dealer either.
My guess is that Boris hopes to win a GE with a significant majority. A majority of 30-40 perhaps... one that emasculates the ERG. He'll feel that a majority will give him a chance of getting a better deal because he'll a) be able to convincingly tell the EU he can get it through parliament and b) convincingly tell them he'll leave with No Deal. In that scenario I reckon he'd reach a deal that most would consider adequate, with only the FBPE hardcore and Farage hugely pissed off. Boris will consider himself able to squish Farage because he outdoes him on the celebrity anti-establishment front.
Given the miserable (impossible) cards he had to play when he came to power this would be a great outcome for him and the country. It's still a long way off but so far, pretty well played.
It's an efficient approach, certainly, but there is quite a bit of merit in NOT saying what my bottom line is as I may very well get more playing my cards close to my chest.
To give an example, it'd be an eccentric Moroccan market trader who said (and meant) "I want $100 for it", customer says "no", they say, "okay my bottom line is $20" as they'd miss a fairly good chance of getting $50 after a slower process of haggling. Sure, the more traditional trader would sometimes miss out on a deal that would've been acceptable if the customer gets bored and wanders off at $40. But my guess is these guys are following an optimal strategy.
That's not to say that a more Chinese approach wouldn't have helped over Brexit. The process of reaching any deal has been painful, and there may well be a No Deal because people have misjudged each other's bottom line. But is it an optimal approach as a strict rule? Maybe not.
An election after no deal is risky , if it goes badly he’s toast .
The is absolutely zero point in any Conservative signing the extension because it will not change a thing.
If we are at a point where an extension is being signed then there is no possible deal that can be done with the current parliament...it would just be a delaying device for remainer MPs to buy time to come up with a way of stopping the UK leaving.
Any Tory signing the extension would be humiliated daily in parliament, humiliated in the country and humiliated by their own party as they were swiftly dispatched.
The only route out is the government resigning and forcing Corbyn to sign the surrender letter to the EU followed by an immediate 'People vs Traitors' GE.
Never give up. Never surrender.
Because to follow Boris into Lobby and deliver his deal is the end of their career in the Labour Party.
I agree.
You can fool some of the people some of the time
https://twitter.com/cnnpolitics/status/1179770264982302720?s=21
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/03/northern-ireland-abortion-law-in-breach-of-human-rights-commitments
Northern Ireland’s near-blanket abortion ban breaches the UK’s human rights commitments, the high court in Belfast has ruled.
All the Irish government said was they had some issues with the proposals and she’s now throwing a rant and trying to blame them for no deal .
But I'm not so sure. It would be very unBritish of all the likely failures of that approach.
Alexander's empire went from the Adriatic to the eastern border of modern day Pakistan, north into Afghanistan and south into Egypt. It was pretty bloody massive.
Anyway, I must be off.
It doesn’t sound like Johnson is remotely serious about no deal.
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/1179799137988104192?s=21
His empire only goes from NI to Great Britain shortly to lose at least two of its constituent parts or have I got the wrong Alexander?