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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An interim government would need more than just a PM
There has been much speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the opposition parties and ex-Tory refuseniks coming together to oust this government and install an interim government, tasked with a very limited role of negotiating an Article 50 extension, promptly followed by a GE. (A variant of this proposal would have the interim government stay in office long enough to call a second EU referendum, but that seems vanishingly unlikely).
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The GNU cabinet will be very tricky. I still wouldn't rule it out though because all the alternative options look very tricky right now.
Edit: Oh, and second to @The_Taxman... but then the taxman always does seem to get the better of me
Forcing the Conservative Party's split into the open could be really useful for Corbyn, and he (or one of his advisers) might be smart enough to realise that accepting a bunch of Tories on a temporary basis could hand him the next election in a platter.
This, incidentally, is why I'm convinced there won't be a Labour PM who isn't Corbyn - it would establish an alternative power centre within the Labour Party and drain power from Corbyn, and Corbyn (unlike Johnson) will have a veto over this.
I think you would have to maximise the payroll vote in a GNU. This might mean extending the number of ministers and spliting up current roles. All MPs who support GNU would then be tied into it to sustain a majority and give them a reason to support it. I dont think a skeleton cabinet is the way forward and i dont fear Corbyn/McDonnell as they will not have a majority for extreame socialist measures.
Aside from PM simply pick those that have either held or shadowed the role previously
Beckett PM
Clarke Chancellor
Cooper Home
Benn Foreign
Attourney General Grieve
Lord Chancellor David Gauke
It's slightly Labour heavy but it is mainly Labour votes that will spring this potential Gov't into action.
The new GONU PM could simply not sack any of the current ministers on the principle of National Unity, and then see who is prepared to stay and who walks. The decision could be really akward for many who would be forced between "sticking with Boris" or stay "running the country in a time of need" until after the general election.
I'm guessing that most of the Cabinet would walk, but for the non cabinet government posts it might be a more difficult decision especially if the new PM is an ex-Conservative.
If it was really going to be so bad surely everyone would pull out all the stops to prevent it.
It does seem to me though, that the key positions are set; the Benn Act comes into effect on Oct 19th, and it doesn't make sense to accelerate this as Boris is still aiming for a deal on Oct 17th. For all the bluster the Gvt have shown no good ways to work around the Benn Act, and their record so far is more Baldrick than Machievelli.
Parliament back sitting if the Gvt do try any funny business, possibly even with a votes at 16 measure to come later this week (what larks)
So I'm not sure all the panic of opposition groups meeting and trying to agree who should be interim PM is really needed - just patience.
An Irish person who has been living in the UK for the last 15 years?
Just crack on and VoNC the government or wait for the deal and vote it through.
Everything else is game playing in the hope of buying a little more time to overturn the referendum.
It is unseemly and doing incredible damage to politics.
The coalition govt had the quad, presumably some similar arrangement for any decisions needed could be organised.
In practice the cabinet positions would be less important I think, vs. the need to ensure all supporters of this extension govt are kept on side for the time period.
A power sharing committee of Corbyn, Sturgeon (and I suppose) Swinson to approve all decisions.
I must refer to the 'committee' before telling you.
Winner winner chicken dinner
Then you can fill the posts that remain vacant - after Johnson loyalists reject the offer - with whatever people need to be included round the table.
I shouldn't be surprised, but am a bit, that the tectonic plates haven't budged much on who might be PM. I get both sides of the argument, but with such a limited programme for government, and a HoC with a permanently twitchy finger on the VONC button, it really shouldn't matter.
Obviously emergency care is different, but for stuff like GPs/dentists/ongoing care you could validate this when you book/arrive.
(ie neither fact stopped what the person has to say being a story, but it's useful context to understand the motivations of those involved. I don't think "Cummings' wife" should be the top line of the story. But any write-through which didn't mention it would be depriving me as a reader of an important fact.)
https://twitter.com/WestminsterWAG/status/1178655430798725120?s=20
A VONC doesn't necessarily remove the PM. It could precipitate an election, until which time the PM remains in post, only without any MPs to control him.
And of course the opposite applies: we both have NI numbers but are not entitled to use the NHS for free should we visit the UK as we're no longer resident there.
Having said that, on a visit a few years ago where she did need to use (and pay for) an NHS walk-in clinic, they were quite reluctant to charge her: "You're on the system as an NHS patient, are you sure you have to pay?"
'The analysis is a top-down estimate based on data from the Census 2011, the
International Passenger Survey 2012 and Immigration and other statistics from
the Office of National Statistics, the Department of Health and the Home Office.
The costs are 2012-13. These are the best available data in the public domain at
the time of the analysis (July and August 2013).
The visitor numbers and population estimates have been adjusted to account for
the various durations of stay in England to derive a daily equivalent
population ie the number of people present in England on an average day. This
has then been analysed by age and gender to enable the populations to be
associated with the relevant health costs.'
It's a back of the fag packet calculation.
A plausible worry would be that they are transmitting data each time you attend. So if you are receiving regular treatment at a hospital, your data might be getting pinged to Experian each time. Experian could infer medical data from that, such as the existence of a long term illness, pregnancy, and so on.
Openly discussing and acknowledging medical problems can help to overcome medical issues.
The first causes isolation, anxiety and stress
The second causes empathy, consideration and reduces stress.
Discuss.
I think the most unprescient statement is a tie between (I think) @david_herdson who thought Amber Rudd was unlikely to resign, and me who thought Theresa May was unlikely to call an election. Both wrong within the week.
The most prescient would be either @RodCrosby who predicted a Tory 2015 win in 2014, or @TheScreamingEagles who predicted Rudd's resignation as HomeSec and replacement by Sajid Javid.
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1178561267054895104
Endings are hard to write, as you are discovering, Mister Nabavi.
As for endings, well, quite...
If they could, share it with private health insurance providers I guess...
I'm sure there are lots of exceptions, and millions of people who for some reason think medical history reflects on them and wish to keep it secret. All I asked was to discuss the merits of secrecy as opposed to openly accepting and sharing.
Without open acceptance by the well and sick of the content of medical records it becomes much harder for the chronically sick, disabled and mentally ill to be accepted in and by society.
Minister for Exiting EU John Bercow
Chancellor Diane Abbott
Northern Ireland Jerry Adams
Ambassador to Israel Chris Williamson
After VONC is passed Boris has up to 14 days to wait it out in Downing St to see whether he (unlikely) or anyone else (not looking very likely at the moment) can command the confidence of the house.
If no one can command confidence a general election is called after 14 days (but would probably be much sooner than that in practice as I imagine it'll be clear in a couple of days whether anyone can claim the confidence of the House or not)
Is this one of your protégés?
https://twitter.com/ShadyModelFacts/status/1177383259505926144?s=20
"Can I see your NI card please?"
"Yes"
"Thank you. When would you like your appointment?"
"No. I don't have it with me."
"Can you tell me the number?"
"Yes"
"Great. Please bring your card when you come for your appointment"
"I don't have a NI number."
"OK. There is a charge of £25 to see the GP,"
It seems likely that Johnson will be left to stew until at least 19th October, and if he seeks the extension (as he will have to in the end I think) he will be left in place until after 1st November, just to ensure his humiliation is complete.
This might turn out to be nothing, but it's good to check.