Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Great question posed by @benedictbrogan. Today's big question not why Labour high in polls, but "why the Conservatives are doing so badly?"
The PB Tories have been ignoring it for years now.
And "The BBC" doesn't count as an answer.
The BBC are certainly part of the answer. If the BBC didn't want to cover up the consequences of their relentless full-spectrum promotion of both the EU and the global warming scam they'd be all over the fact that the Cameroons closed down two perfectly good coal power stations under orders from the EU just in time to run the risk of blackouts only held back by an emergency scheme based on farms of diesel generators which may or may not work but if they work will possibly use more carbon than the closed power stations.
If the BBC publicized that the Cameroons would be down another 5%.
I see that media studies grads have second highest emloyment rates. Only medics do better.
That's one in the eye for those who attack this area.
pic.twitter.com/5sO22lH97Y
Er....you missed a bit out:
Second highest work rate but lowest pay for media studies graduates In April-June 2013, people with a degree in medicine or dentistry had the highest employment rate of all graduates, at 95%, followed by those with media and information studies degrees (93%), a new report from ONS shows. However, while the medical graduates had the highest median pay, at £45,600 a year, media and information studies graduates had the lowest pay of all subject groups, at £21,000.
I assume things will be getting worse for most people over the next year for the usual supply and demand reasons but at the same time the worse it gets the more the europhile wing of the political class (i.e. 95% of them) will gang up to attack Ukip so the net effect will depend on how well Ukip stands up to that assault. imo
Correction about John Lewis. The plank on tv at present is now on its Board... oh dear. "Anderson (in February 2011) is on the board at John Lewis and the National Farmers' Union Mutual insurance Society. He is also chair of Mutuo, a think tank promoting mutual ownership." http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jun/17/coop-bank-six-executives-responsible
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Great question posed by @benedictbrogan. Today's big question not why Labour high in polls, but "why the Conservatives are doing so badly?"
The PB Tories have been ignoring it for years now.
And "The BBC" doesn't count as an answer.
The Coalition will always get the blame for cuts (or smaller increases!) in public spending
I'm sure tim will rush to point out your error - such a devotee of polling and all that - but its Labour that consistently gets the blame for the cuts - by a pretty solid 10-12 point average lead for well over a year now......
True enough, but my point is that the Conservatives / LDs are in Government and will always get the blame for "stuff" I didn't mean to say that Labour do not reap the blame for the mess that they left behind.
In my view, the Conservatives have been on the back foot for the last several months. UKIP are fragile if you look at them overall. They do not have coherent policies across the board and until (and if) they are properly developed with plausible Spokesmen, they will be a party of protest, rather like the pre-Coalition LDs.
Labour's record in office is awful. Their Leader is considerably less popular than DC. The UNITE and Co-Op business is louder than mere noise and the crucially, the economy is slowly recovering.
There is still all (I mean all!) to play for.
Conservatives need to take the initiative, stop (or at least minimise) spinning and speak in a way that folk outside the Westminster / political worlds understand. That may move the goalposts in some quite unexpected ways!
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Great question posed by @benedictbrogan. Today's big question not why Labour high in polls, but "why the Conservatives are doing so badly?"
The PB Tories have been ignoring it for years now.
And "The BBC" doesn't count as an answer.
Morning Tim, let's have a quick go at this question.
The Tories are unpopular for a number of reasons at the moment.
They are the Government in a very thin economic climate
They are in coalition and cannot govern as they would do on their own
There is a perception that the leadership is out of touch; but don't rely too much on the Bullingdon Club - It didn't work too well in Crewe & Nantwich - If DC and the team rediscover the drive that got them elected, this could be reversed.
The Coalition will always get the blame for cuts (or smaller increases!) in public spending
Lastly, the Tories aren't trying to make all their future spending committments on taxing Banker's bonuses. The dishonesty of Ed's posturing will hurt him doen the road IMHO
Back in July, some on here said it was impossible for Cameron to get what he wanted wrt Internet safety.
Lo and behold, an announcement is made that the large tech players are on side, and the frantic spinning starts. Sadly, for them, Cameron's won.
Some do not even understand that there are two separate issues being addressed, and confuse the two (yes, I mean you, Tim):
*) Access to illegal child pornography *) Easy access to adult material by children.
Moves have been announced to address both of these issues. They are small steps, but it is a start. And no end of technologically illiterate HuffPro articles from last July can change that. ;-)
Unless you're expecting a Labour majority approaching 100 then that's free money.
Good spot. Maybe not quite free money, but good value compared with bets on the overall result.
Incidentally I see that Ladbrokes have now integrated their betting exchange product which is based on Betdaq, which they bought a few months ago, into their main website. This works like Betfair. No politics bets available at the moment, but hopefully they will cover the big political markets in due course.
JJ I cannot understand anyone objecting to reducing the availability for watching child porno or reducing the opportunity for children to access the adult stuff.....weird
Back in July, some on here said it was impossible for Cameron to get what he wanted wrt Internet safety.
Can you link to the posts you're subtweeting?
I don't have time to go back and look. Are you claiming people on here were all saying it was possible and feasible, and that people were not treating it as a joke? ISTR there was a discussion about how the major IT players would not cooperate ... (*)
For confirmation, just look at yesterday's hysterical reaction to the announcement.
I'm not that bothered about the filtering. The real biggie is the links to the illegal porn on the search engines that will be rolled out in 148 countries.
This is a big thing. True, it is a small step, but a massively important one. As I said yesterday, the really big thing is that MS and Google have cooperated on software than can detect potential abuse images.
(*) If I am wrong and there was not, then I apologise. I'm fairly certain I am right, however.
On topic, the media only have two settings, triumph and disaster. If UKIP are gaining seats it's hard to see them running the disaster story, despite the extra money. They're more likely to focus on whichever unlucky major party is losing them.
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
You'll have to teach me your secret There has got to be a chance that the bet will be voided because it's ridiculously worded but there's no way you can lose it and he may not stand for anyone in which case you should definitely collect.
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
Careful about paddypower obscure political markets . I had a bet on the largest turnout of London Boroughs in the Mayor election in 2012. Still not settled to date. I must admit I was surprised the election would be broken down into boroughs but took paddypower on their word so bet on it. MESSAGE TO PADDYPOWER -if you messed up and made a market with no possible result just admit it and void it rather than leaving it pending for ever
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
Are you claiming people on here were all saying it was possible and feasible, and that people were not treating it as a joke?
It is and was a joke, they're blocking a bunch of search terms and making people use different search terms, if they were ever using Google for illegal stuff in the first place. Which in turn makes it more likely that people will run across the kind of content they're talking about in the course of normal searches, because illegal content users will start using more ordinary words that can't be filtered and giving them sketchier meanings.
As far as the actual content of the index goes they've been filtering illegal content since forever.
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
Careful about paddypower obscure political markets . I had a bet on the largest turnout of London Boroughs in the Mayor election in 2012. Still not settled to date. I must admit I was surprised the election would be broken down into boroughs but took paddypower on their word so bet on it. MESSAGE TO PADDYPOWER -if you messed up and made a market with no possible result just admit it and void it rather than leaving it pending for ever
I'd have a chat with them about that, thy should settle or void it by now. I've got 650 seats for next GE still outstanding, but I'm sure they'll settle after GE.
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
Careful about paddypower obscure political markets . I had a bet on the largest turnout of London Boroughs in the Mayor election in 2012. Still not settled to date. I must admit I was surprised the election would be broken down into boroughs but took paddypower on their word so bet on it. MESSAGE TO PADDYPOWER -if you messed up and made a market with no possible result just admit it and void it rather than leaving it pending for ever
I'd have a chat with them about that, thy should settle or void it by now. I've got 650 seats for next GE still outstanding, but I'm sure they'll settle after GE.
You don't think I havn't tried doing that? They just say its not in yet!!
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
Careful about paddypower obscure political markets . I had a bet on the largest turnout of London Boroughs in the Mayor election in 2012. Still not settled to date. I must admit I was surprised the election would be broken down into boroughs but took paddypower on their word so bet on it. MESSAGE TO PADDYPOWER -if you messed up and made a market with no possible result just admit it and void it rather than leaving it pending for ever
I'd have a chat with them about that, thy should settle or void it by now. I've got 650 seats for next GE still outstanding, but I'm sure they'll settle after GE.
You don't think I havn't tried doing that? They just say its not in yet!!
Isnt it time to take them to the arbitration service?
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
Careful about paddypower obscure political markets . I had a bet on the largest turnout of London Boroughs in the Mayor election in 2012. Still not settled to date. I must admit I was surprised the election would be broken down into boroughs but took paddypower on their word so bet on it. MESSAGE TO PADDYPOWER -if you messed up and made a market with no possible result just admit it and void it rather than leaving it pending for ever
I'd have a chat with them about that, thy should settle or void it by now. I've got 650 seats for next GE still outstanding, but I'm sure they'll settle after GE.
You don't think I havn't tried doing that? They just say its not in yet!!
Isnt it time to take them to the arbitration service?
It was only £10 , its just irritating seeing it still on the account as pending ,especially when I have emailed them about it. Eventually I hope somebody with intelligence there will click and it will be refunded
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
Are you claiming people on here were all saying it was possible and feasible, and that people were not treating it as a joke?
It is and was a joke, they're blocking a bunch of search terms and making people use different search terms, if they were ever using Google for illegal stuff in the first place. Which in turn makes it more likely that people will run across the kind of content they're talking about in the course of normal searches, because illegal content users will start using more ordinary words that can't be filtered and giving them sketchier meanings.
As far as the actual content of the index goes they've been filtering illegal content since forever.
The US version of HoCards is very solid - I've watched it 3x and would highly recommend. Spacey is excellent. The US market has really got this off to a tee.
The Unoriginals isn't a patch on True Blood IMO - its derivative and hammy - I'd give it 6/10 for entertaining filler - True Blood by comparison is much more novel and gripping. I thought Erik was a great supporting male lead.
I've seen lots of good comments about Sleepy Hollow - I've not watched it yet but coming from pretty critical friends, that's an endorsement. If you haven't given Haven or Grimm or Supernatural a shot - all are well worth it and have a slightly different angle on weird stuff.
OT Since I've largely lost interest in UK politics, I've been entertaining myself with US TV. A few recommendations for those who also tune in are
The Mentalist - spoilers say we're about to discover who Red John is next week - after 4 yrs of waiting, this is apparently a humdinger of an episode. I've been pretty impressed overall at the whole run.
Revolution - much better than S1, and well worth tuning in for - the Earth has no electricity due to nanotechnology blocking it. All very Wild West meets X-Files
Supernatural - after 8 solid seasons, S9 is not impressing me as its all over the place. But I live in hope that God's Angel of Choice will get his grace back and the King of Hell does his mojo.
Haven - I'm really enjoying this after finding the first half of S1 rather peculiar. We're now on S4.
The Originals - more vampires in Louisiana - well that's a novel idea, entertaining but nothing to write home about
Agents of Shield - love it, superb production/SFX quality - its movie stuff but lasts 23 shows. ABC have got this right even if its been a bit slow to get going.
Masters of Sex - just brilliant 1950s, with Michael Sheen as pioneer of sex therapy. He's as convincing as he was Cloughie or Blair. Superb stuff.
Grimm - procedural cop show meets mermaids and werewolves meets Superman of Faerie Tales - excellent mash-up.
Agree that Masters of Sex is brilliant...
Currently massively enjoying House of Cards (US/Netflix version)
Is The Orginals basically a True Blood rerun, or different somehow?
It is and was a joke, they're blocking a bunch of search terms and making people use different search terms, if they were ever using Google for illegal stuff in the first place. Which in turn makes it more likely that people will run across the kind of content they're talking about in the course of normal searches, because illegal content users will start using more ordinary words that can't be filtered and giving them sketchier meanings.
As far as the actual content of the index goes they've been filtering illegal content since forever.
The US version of HoCards is very solid - I've watched it 3x and would highly recommend. Spacey is excellent. The US market has really got this off to a tee.
The Unoriginals isn't a patch on True Blood IMO - its derivative and hammy - I'd give it 6/10 for entertaining filler - True Blood by comparison is much more novel and gripping. I thought Erik was a great supporting male lead.
I've seen lots of good comments about Sleepy Hollow - I've not watched it yet but coming from pretty critical friends, that's an endorsement. If you haven't given Haven or Grimm or Supernatural a shot - all are well worth it and have a slightly different angle on weird stuff.
OT Since I've largely lost interest in UK politics, I've been entertaining myself with US TV. A few recommendations for those who also tune in are
The Mentalist - spoilers say we're about to discover who Red John is next week - after 4 yrs of waiting, this is apparently a humdinger of an episode. I've been pretty impressed overall at the whole run.
Revolution - much better than S1, and well worth tuning in for - the Earth has no electricity due to nanotechnology blocking it. All very Wild West meets X-Files
Supernatural - after 8 solid seasons, S9 is not impressing me as its all over the place. But I live in hope that God's Angel of Choice will get his grace back and the King of Hell does his mojo.
Haven - I'm really enjoying this after finding the first half of S1 rather peculiar. We're now on S4.
The Originals - more vampires in Louisiana - well that's a novel idea, entertaining but nothing to write home about
Agents of Shield - love it, superb production/SFX quality - its movie stuff but lasts 23 shows. ABC have got this right even if its been a bit slow to get going.
Masters of Sex - just brilliant 1950s, with Michael Sheen as pioneer of sex therapy. He's as convincing as he was Cloughie or Blair. Superb stuff.
Grimm - procedural cop show meets mermaids and werewolves meets Superman of Faerie Tales - excellent mash-up.
Agree that Masters of Sex is brilliant...
Currently massively enjoying House of Cards (US/Netflix version)
Is The Orginals basically a True Blood rerun, or different somehow?
Plato - "Low Winter Sun" is where it's at, best cop show since the Wire IMHO.
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
You'll have to teach me your secret There has got to be a chance that the bet will be voided because it's ridiculously worded but there's no way you can lose it and he may not stand for anyone in which case you should definitely collect.
Did you follow any of PtP's recent errm tips ^^;;; ?
I've got on for considerably more than £1. Printing the wiki article out now also. Worst that can happen is the bet is voided I suppose.
You'll have to teach me your secret There has got to be a chance that the bet will be voided because it's ridiculously worded but there's no way you can lose it and he may not stand for anyone in which case you should definitely collect.
Did you follow any of PtP's recent errm tips ^^;;; ?
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Those terms will answer this question
As I understand it, that question won't be asked or answered until Scotland votes to leave the Union.
Paging Southam Observer, he's the man to ask on this matter.
Plato - agree about Mentalist - I will try and look at the rest of your recs over Xmas.
If you're interested in other reviews - but they can get rather nerdy - do look at IMDb - there's a review there of everything ever made by both critics [I usually ignore these] and us.
If you haven't seen Justified - that's a must watch - just brilliant. Clint Eastwood style cool cop meets red necks meets clever dialogue/comedy drama.
Curious analysis - since Cameron is assiduously keeping out of the Indie debate - but perhaps a symptom of Labour uneasiness at working with the Tories in Better Together:
David Cameron is doing irreconcilable damage to the campaign to defeat Scottish independence and must step back before it its too late, the former First Minister has said. The Prime Minister's "rich posh image" and "damaging" policies epitomise everything that Scots hate about the Conservatives, warned Henry McLeish, who led the country a decade ago.
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
No. The trigger for that would be a formal request from the UK government. 'The EU does not deal in hypotheticals'. Neither does the UK government. The question, if it is asked at all, will be asked after the referendum.
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Those terms will answer this question
If UKIP poll well in the Euros, they should also make substantial gains in the local elections on the same day.
Today the Daily Echo can reveal that the controversial clergyman has a hidden past in Hampshire. As reported by this newspaper, he was convicted of carrying out a sex act in a Hampshire public toilet more than 30 years ago.
I'm pretty impressed with Co-Op guy buying Crystal Meth.
Coke and Ket are one thing, but Crystal Meth, geez. It's heavy stuff - as addictive and life-screwing as heroin.
Neil - didn't Crystal used to be associated with the gay scene? Because of its horn-inducing qualities?* I'm sure I read Johann Hari talking about it a while back, and how it was leading to people doing things they wouldn't do when they are sober.
*Given the 'shrivel factor' associated with speed I'm surprised that crystal meth is a sex drug. But then I've never taken it, so I don't know what effect it has on that!
Today the Daily Echo can reveal that the controversial clergyman has a hidden past in Hampshire. As reported by this newspaper, he was convicted of carrying out a sex act in a Hampshire public toilet more than 30 years ago.
Eastleigh again, thats Milligan, Flowers and Huhne. Was the Mayor of Toronto ever in Eastleigh?
There seem to be a lot of odd goings-on in Hampshire (Oaten, Hancock, Noakes, the former Labour leader of Portsmouth council). There's definitely something in the water down there.
It is and was a joke, they're blocking a bunch of search terms and making people use different search terms, if they were ever using Google for illegal stuff in the first place. Which in turn makes it more likely that people will run across the kind of content they're talking about in the course of normal searches, because illegal content users will start using more ordinary words that can't be filtered and giving them sketchier meanings.
As far as the actual content of the index goes they've been filtering illegal content since forever.
My proposal would be, since this measure will be at best useless and most likely harmful, not to do it.
Sorry, don't have time for much more - got to go to a meeting all afternoon. I put my (hopefully) reasoned thoughts on this on one of yesterday's threads.
I do worry that Falkirk is not getting an airing now with Labour's diversionary tactics of spitting, new haircuts, scandals at its main bank/political prop with links between the banksters and Labours leaders, ex minister/gabble likely being sent to prison after Huhne-esque denials, splits between 2 Eds on HS2, or on economic messaging and or pub usage or not.
QT in Falkirk will bring normality to PB surely?
Labour just dominating the news - surely heading for 50% in YouGov as a result.
It is and was a joke, they're blocking a bunch of search terms and making people use different search terms, if they were ever using Google for illegal stuff in the first place. Which in turn makes it more likely that people will run across the kind of content they're talking about in the course of normal searches, because illegal content users will start using more ordinary words that can't be filtered and giving them sketchier meanings.
As far as the actual content of the index goes they've been filtering illegal content since forever.
My proposal would be, since this measure will be at best useless and most likely harmful, not to do it.
Sorry, don't have time for much more - got to go to a meeting all afternoon. I put my (hopefully) reasoned thoughts on this on one of yesterday's threads.
So your solution is not to do anything?
Obviously helpful things would be worth looking at. But if it turned out that all the helpful things had already been done, that's not a reason to do something useless or harmful.
Clearly this logic doesn't hold for political strategy. If there's a problem that people want something done about, it's generally useful to say that you're going to do something, even if that something wouldn't really help. (See also Ed Miliband on short-term energy prices.)
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Those terms will answer this question
If UKIP poll well in the Euros, they should also make substantial gains in the local elections on the same day.
Next year's local elections are mostly in urban areas, including London, where UKIP is weak and Labour is strong. Turnout will be higher in these areas because the on-the-ground effort by Council candidates will be much greater than in areas where only MEP positions are at stake. This can be expected to give Labour a higher share, and UKIP a lower share, than the polls predict.
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Those terms will answer this question
If UKIP poll well in the Euros, they should also make substantial gains in the local elections on the same day.
Next year's local elections are mostly in urban areas, including London, where UKIP is weak and Labour is strong. Turnout will be higher in these areas because the on-the-ground effort by Council candidates will be much greater than in areas where only MEP positions are at stake. This can be expected to give Labour a higher share, and UKIP a lower share, than the polls predict.
Unless Lab voters switch to Ukip in both elections.
Lets face it the turnout in Euro elections is rubbish - and MEPs are about as much use as a chocolate teapot - its a nationwide poll of obsessed people.
Today the Daily Echo can reveal that the controversial clergyman has a hidden past in Hampshire. As reported by this newspaper, he was convicted of carrying out a sex act in a Hampshire public toilet more than 30 years ago.
He later left the area and took up a key position on Rochdale Council in Greater Manchester at a time when social workers there had been strongly criticised for snatching 20 youngsters from their homes amid claims they were subjected to “Satanic ritual abuse”.
A Government report at the time attacked the authority’s social services committee – on which Rev Flowers was vice chairman – for its actions following the allegations.
Rochdale....child abuse.....satanists.....this is now so far into 'you couldn't make it up territory.....'
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Those terms will answer this question
If UKIP poll well in the Euros, they should also make substantial gains in the local elections on the same day.
Next year's local elections are mostly in urban areas, including London, where UKIP is weak and Labour is strong. Turnout will be higher in these areas because the on-the-ground effort by Council candidates will be much greater than in areas where only MEP positions are at stake. This can be expected to give Labour a higher share, and UKIP a lower share, than the polls predict.
There are a fair number of urban areas where UKIP have significant support, such as Dudley, Stoke, Hull, Havering. UKIP topped the poll in some of those areas in the 2009 Euros.
The US version of HoCards is very solid - I've watched it 3x and would highly recommend. Spacey is excellent. The US market has really got this off to a tee.
OT Since I've largely lost interest in UK politics, I've been entertaining myself with US TV. A few recommendations for those who also tune in are
The Mentalist - spoilers say we're about to discover who Red John is next week - after 4 yrs of waiting, this is apparently a humdinger of an episode. I've been pretty impressed overall at the whole run.
Revolution - much better than S1, and well worth tuning in for - the Earth has no electricity due to nanotechnology blocking it. All very Wild West meets X-Files
Supernatural - after 8 solid seasons, S9 is not impressing me as its all over the place. But I live in hope that God's Angel of Choice will get his grace back and the King of Hell does his mojo.
Haven - I'm really enjoying this after finding the first half of S1 rather peculiar. We're now on S4.
The Originals - more vampires in Louisiana - well that's a novel idea, entertaining but nothing to write home about
Agents of Shield - love it, superb production/SFX quality - its movie stuff but lasts 23 shows. ABC have got this right even if its been a bit slow to get going.
Masters of Sex - just brilliant 1950s, with Michael Sheen as pioneer of sex therapy. He's as convincing as he was Cloughie or Blair. Superb stuff.
Grimm - procedural cop show meets mermaids and werewolves meets Superman of Faerie Tales - excellent mash-up.
Agree that Masters of Sex is brilliant...
Currently massively enjoying House of Cards (US/Netflix version)
Is The Orginals basically a True Blood rerun, or different somehow?
Plato - "Low Winter Sun" is where it's at, best cop show since the Wire IMHO.
There's no pleasing the Nats - just a year ago they were singing the IFS's praises:
The latest report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies reinforces the fact that Scotland is in a stronger financial position than the UK as a whole, and would as an independent country have lower debt levels than the rest of the UK.
Welcoming the report, SNP Treasury spokesman Stewart Hosie MP highlighted the fact that with the current figures in Scotland’s favour the anti-independence politicians’ have been left with no case and are resorting to scaremongering over the future
Plato - "Low Winter Sun" is where it's at, best cop show since the Wire IMHO.
Low Winter Sun is a stretched to a series remake of a British (Scottish?) two part drama with the same star relocated to the US. Your mileage may vary...
Plato - "Low Winter Sun" is where it's at, best cop show since the Wire IMHO.
Low Winter Sun is a stretched to a series remake of a British (Scottish?) two part drama with the same star relocated to the US. Your mileage may vary...
Watched both - both good. Apart from the first 30 mins there isn't much in common.
I'm pretty impressed with Co-Op guy buying Crystal Meth.
Coke and Ket are one thing, but Crystal Meth, geez. It's heavy stuff - as addictive and life-screwing as heroin.
Neil - didn't Crystal used to be associated with the gay scene? Because of its horn-inducing qualities?* I'm sure I read Johann Hari talking about it a while back, and how it was leading to people doing things they wouldn't do when they are sober.
*Given the 'shrivel factor' associated with speed I'm surprised that crystal meth is a sex drug. But then I've never taken it, so I don't know what effect it has on that!
There's another thing I find quite puzzling about this report. I heard that the crystal methodist was apparently on a salary of around £150k (don't know the exact figure). What kind of self-respecting banker would work for such a paltry sum? I'm sure Bob Diamond would have been ashamed to even claim such loose change in expenses. In fact, as I recall, he refused to call it salary - it was his 'remuneration'.
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Those terms will answer this question
If UKIP poll well in the Euros, they should also make substantial gains in the local elections on the same day.
Next year's local elections are mostly in urban areas, including London, where UKIP is weak and Labour is strong. Turnout will be higher in these areas because the on-the-ground effort by Council candidates will be much greater than in areas where only MEP positions are at stake. This can be expected to give Labour a higher share, and UKIP a lower share, than the polls predict.
There are a fair number of urban areas where UKIP have significant support, such as Dudley, Stoke, Hull, Havering. UKIP topped the poll in some of those areas in the 2009 Euros.
But Labour will do much better than in 2009. Also the 2009 locals were not in the same areas as the 2014 ones - I'd expect Labour to top the poll easily in all the areas you mention except Havering, where the Tories should hold on to first place.
I'm pretty impressed with Co-Op guy buying Crystal Meth.
Coke and Ket are one thing, but Crystal Meth, geez. It's heavy stuff - as addictive and life-screwing as heroin.
Neil - didn't Crystal used to be associated with the gay scene? Because of its horn-inducing qualities?* I'm sure I read Johann Hari talking about it a while back, and how it was leading to people doing things they wouldn't do when they are sober.
*Given the 'shrivel factor' associated with speed I'm surprised that crystal meth is a sex drug. But then I've never taken it, so I don't know what effect it has on that!
There's another thing I find quite puzzling about this report. I heard that the crystal methodist was apparently on a salary of around £150k (don't know the exact figure). What kind of self-respecting banker would work for such a paltry sum? I'm sure Bob Diamond would have been ashamed to even claim such loose change in expenses. In fact, as I recall, he refused to call it salary - it was his 'remuneration'.
Bob Diamond was Chief Executive, whereas as The Crystal Methodist was merely a Chairman.
As any Chief Executive will tell you, they do all the hard work, whereas the Chairman is usually some boring old fart who only works 2 days a month chairing the board.
London is heading for another low this year in terms of the homicide rate. So far there have been 83. Last year's total was 99, which was itself the lowest for 40 years:
Not sure I completely buy it - but David Gow argues that a UKIP triumph in the Euros could help the SNP in the Indie vote:
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
UKIP will do well in the Euros, I am sure. To move beyond that will be their challenge. As far as the Scottish vote is concerned a good result for them could cut both ways. By then, will the terms of reference between an independant Scotland and the EU have been worked out?
Those terms will answer this question
If UKIP poll well in the Euros, they should also make substantial gains in the local elections on the same day.
Next year's local elections are mostly in urban areas, including London, where UKIP is weak and Labour is strong. Turnout will be higher in these areas because the on-the-ground effort by Council candidates will be much greater than in areas where only MEP positions are at stake. This can be expected to give Labour a higher share, and UKIP a lower share, than the polls predict.
There are a fair number of urban areas where UKIP have significant support, such as Dudley, Stoke, Hull, Havering. UKIP topped the poll in some of those areas in the 2009 Euros.
But Labour will do much better than in 2009. Also the 2009 locals were not in the same areas as the 2014 ones - I'd expect Labour to top the poll easily in all the areas you mention except Havering, where the Tories should hold on to first place.
Although there will be some voters who are definitely intending to vote Labour in 2015 but will support UKIP in the Euro elections.
I'm pretty impressed with Co-Op guy buying Crystal Meth.
Coke and Ket are one thing, but Crystal Meth, geez. It's heavy stuff - as addictive and life-screwing as heroin.
Neil - didn't Crystal used to be associated with the gay scene? Because of its horn-inducing qualities?* I'm sure I read Johann Hari talking about it a while back, and how it was leading to people doing things they wouldn't do when they are sober.
*Given the 'shrivel factor' associated with speed I'm surprised that crystal meth is a sex drug. But then I've never taken it, so I don't know what effect it has on that!
There's another thing I find quite puzzling about this report. I heard that the crystal methodist was apparently on a salary of around £150k (don't know the exact figure). What kind of self-respecting banker would work for such a paltry sum? I'm sure Bob Diamond would have been ashamed to even claim such loose change in expenses. In fact, as I recall, he refused to call it salary - it was his 'remuneration'.
Bob Diamond was Chief Executive, whereas as The Crystal Methodist was merely a Chairman.
As any Chief Executive will tell you, they do all the hard work, whereas the Chairman is usually some boring old fart who only works 2 days a month chairing the board.
Fair enough. I suppose given all that it's really unfair of that select committee to expect him to know how much the bank's assets were worth.
I'm pretty impressed with Co-Op guy buying Crystal Meth.
Coke and Ket are one thing, but Crystal Meth, geez. It's heavy stuff - as addictive and life-screwing as heroin.
Neil - didn't Crystal used to be associated with the gay scene? Because of its horn-inducing qualities?* I'm sure I read Johann Hari talking about it a while back, and how it was leading to people doing things they wouldn't do when they are sober.
*Given the 'shrivel factor' associated with speed I'm surprised that crystal meth is a sex drug. But then I've never taken it, so I don't know what effect it has on that!
There's another thing I find quite puzzling about this report. I heard that the crystal methodist was apparently on a salary of around £150k (don't know the exact figure). What kind of self-respecting banker would work for such a paltry sum? I'm sure Bob Diamond would have been ashamed to even claim such loose change in expenses. In fact, as I recall, he refused to call it salary - it was his 'remuneration'.
Bob Diamond was Chief Executive, whereas as The Crystal Methodist was merely a Chairman.
As any Chief Executive will tell you, they do all the hard work, whereas the Chairman is usually some boring old fart who only works 2 days a month chairing the board.
Fair enough. I suppose given all that it's really unfair of that select committee to expect him to know how much the bank's assets were worth.
As a Director he should know.
Iirc the confusion was over total assets and net assets.
Next year's local elections are mostly in urban areas, including London, where UKIP is weak and Labour is strong. Turnout will be higher in these areas because the on-the-ground effort by Council candidates will be much greater than in areas where only MEP positions are at stake. This can be expected to give Labour a higher share, and UKIP a lower share, than the polls predict.
Labour tends to find it hard to get some of its urban voters to turn out to vote if there isn't a general election on the same day. That's why parties like the Greens, BNP, and Residents lost so many seats to Labour in London Borough elections that were held on the same day as the general election, despite winning significant numbers of votes. They were just swamped by Labour voters turning out for the general election, who then voted for their council candidates.
There will be a number of Metropolitan Boroughs where UKIP could be expected to perform well, in South and West Yorkshire, and the West Midlands. Also, a reasonable number of seats are coming up in District Councils, and Unitary Authorities. This round of elections is tailor-made to maximise UKIP turnout.
Comments
If the BBC publicized that the Cameroons would be down another 5%.
Second highest work rate but lowest pay for media studies graduates
In April-June 2013, people with a degree in medicine or dentistry had the highest employment rate of all graduates, at 95%, followed by those with media and information studies degrees (93%), a new report from ONS shows. However, while the medical graduates had the highest median pay, at £45,600 a year, media and information studies graduates had the lowest pay of all subject groups, at £21,000.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/mro/news-release/second-highest-work-rate-but-lowest-pay-for-media-studies-graduates/grad1113.html
'Do you want chips with that?'
(it might have been drama students in the old joke)...
I assume things will be getting worse for most people over the next year for the usual supply and demand reasons but at the same time the worse it gets the more the europhile wing of the political class (i.e. 95% of them) will gang up to attack Ukip so the net effect will depend on how well Ukip stands up to that assault. imo
The plank on tv at present is now on its Board... oh dear.
"Anderson (in February 2011) is on the board at John Lewis and the National Farmers' Union Mutual insurance Society. He is also chair of Mutuo, a think tank promoting mutual ownership."
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jun/17/coop-bank-six-executives-responsible
http://www.johnlewispartnership.co.uk/about/the-partnership/governing-authorities/partnership-board/all-directors.html#DavidAndersonnameId
But I'm a Media Studies graduate.
Oh yes, I forgot. Give me five minutes and I'll show you how to use it.
In my view, the Conservatives have been on the back foot for the last several months. UKIP are fragile if you look at them overall. They do not have coherent policies across the board and until (and if) they are properly developed with plausible Spokesmen, they will be a party of protest, rather like the pre-Coalition LDs.
Labour's record in office is awful. Their Leader is considerably less popular than DC. The UNITE and Co-Op business is louder than mere noise and the crucially, the economy is slowly recovering.
There is still all (I mean all!) to play for.
Conservatives need to take the initiative, stop (or at least minimise) spinning and speak in a way that folk outside the Westminster / political worlds understand. That may move the goalposts in some quite unexpected ways!
Lo and behold, an announcement is made that the large tech players are on side, and the frantic spinning starts. Sadly, for them, Cameron's won.
Some do not even understand that there are two separate issues being addressed, and confuse the two (yes, I mean you, Tim):
*) Access to illegal child pornography
*) Easy access to adult material by children.
Moves have been announced to address both of these issues. They are small steps, but it is a start. And no end of technologically illiterate HuffPro articles from last July can change that. ;-)
Incidentally I see that Ladbrokes have now integrated their betting exchange product which is based on Betdaq, which they bought a few months ago, into their main website. This works like Betfair. No politics bets available at the moment, but hopefully they will cover the big political markets in due course.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/19/christopher-geidt-pcc-adjudication?CMP=twt_gu
What do you make of Paddy's 4/7 on Berlusconi not being a PDL candidate now that the PDL has been dissolved? You'll never win 56p as easily again
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/italian-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1308194
Is it just me or is there no match odds market available for the first Ashes Test on betfair exchange - seems to be technical issues ?
For confirmation, just look at yesterday's hysterical reaction to the announcement.
I'm not that bothered about the filtering. The real biggie is the links to the illegal porn on the search engines that will be rolled out in 148 countries.
This is a big thing. True, it is a small step, but a massively important one. As I said yesterday, the really big thing is that MS and Google have cooperated on software than can detect potential abuse images.
(*) If I am wrong and there was not, then I apologise. I'm fairly certain I am right, however.
Just had a nibble at France to qualify tonight 4/1 - seems above fair.
Decent Lucky 15 odds
MESSAGE TO PADDYPOWER -if you messed up and made a market with no possible result just admit it and void it rather than leaving it pending for ever
Ukip could be the midwife of Scottish independence
A triumph by the anti-EU party in European elections would propel Tory Eurosceptics into overdrive and swell the nationalist vote in Scotland
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/19/ukip-scottish-independence-anti-eu-european-elections-scotland
As far as the actual content of the index goes they've been filtering illegal content since forever.
I suspect between now and next September we're going to be reading all sorts of things will be good/bad for the Yes side.
And your solution would be?
Sadiq Khan quotes Clegg 2009: special advisers should be paid by political parties. Clegg replies by asking if Q written by Len McCluskey.
For the hat-trick, if it combined electoral reform as well...
15/8 on the other side. Has anyone at Paddy's actually checked the PDL wiki page ?
The Unoriginals isn't a patch on True Blood IMO - its derivative and hammy - I'd give it 6/10 for entertaining filler - True Blood by comparison is much more novel and gripping. I thought Erik was a great supporting male lead.
I've seen lots of good comments about Sleepy Hollow - I've not watched it yet but coming from pretty critical friends, that's an endorsement. If you haven't given Haven or Grimm or Supernatural a shot - all are well worth it and have a slightly different angle on weird stuff.
Last week, I backed Australia to win the first test.
And today I'm backing Romania, Iceland, Sweden and Ukraine to win tonight.
He's brilliant and a patriot.
Those terms will answer this question
Paging Southam Observer, he's the man to ask on this matter.
Linky here to mine - http://www.imdb.com/user/ur43365781/
If you haven't seen Justified - that's a must watch - just brilliant. Clint Eastwood style cool cop meets red necks meets clever dialogue/comedy drama.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihxiFseaa30
David Cameron is doing irreconcilable damage to the campaign to defeat Scottish independence and must step back before it its too late, the former First Minister has said.
The Prime Minister's "rich posh image" and "damaging" policies epitomise everything that Scots hate about the Conservatives, warned Henry McLeish, who led the country a decade ago.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10459299/David-Camerons-posh-boy-image-undermining-fight-against-Scottish-independence.html
I've backed all 4 in a Lucky 15 to qualify.
Euro elections have low turnouts that attract the most committed voters. UKIP voters are the most committed, and the party's USP is leaving the EU,
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/5146933/The-Ashes-2013+14---Any-Double-Century-to-be-Scored.html
1) How many times Shane Watson will be out LBW
2) How many unsuccessful reviews Shane Watson will have
Not sure anyone bar the Lib Dems will be able to stand on a mandate that doesn't permit a referendum.
Today the Daily Echo can reveal that the controversial clergyman has a hidden past in Hampshire. As reported by this newspaper, he was convicted of carrying out a sex act in a Hampshire public toilet more than 30 years ago.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10818258.Sex_shame_past_of_Co_op_bank_supremo/
So now we know he likes sex and drugs ... any word on whether he's a fan of rock and roll?
Coke and Ket are one thing, but Crystal Meth, geez. It's heavy stuff - as addictive and life-screwing as heroin.
Neil - didn't Crystal used to be associated with the gay scene? Because of its horn-inducing qualities?* I'm sure I read Johann Hari talking about it a while back, and how it was leading to people doing things they wouldn't do when they are sober.
*Given the 'shrivel factor' associated with speed I'm surprised that crystal meth is a sex drug. But then I've never taken it, so I don't know what effect it has on that!
So your solution is not to do anything?
What more could you want ?
QT in Falkirk will bring normality to PB surely?
Labour just dominating the news - surely heading for 50% in YouGov as a result.
http://goo.gl/DwY0NY
Clearly this logic doesn't hold for political strategy. If there's a problem that people want something done about, it's generally useful to say that you're going to do something, even if that something wouldn't really help. (See also Ed Miliband on short-term energy prices.)
Everyone knows the Nats are lovely cuddly people who take criticism on the chin.
Lets face it the turnout in Euro elections is rubbish - and MEPs are about as much use as a chocolate teapot - its a nationwide poll of obsessed people.
A Government report at the time attacked the authority’s social services committee – on which Rev Flowers was vice chairman – for its actions following the allegations.
Rochdale....child abuse.....satanists.....this is now so far into 'you couldn't make it up territory.....'
The latest report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies reinforces the fact that Scotland is in a stronger financial position than the UK as a whole, and would as an independent country have lower debt levels than the rest of the UK.
Welcoming the report, SNP Treasury spokesman Stewart Hosie MP highlighted the fact that with the current figures in Scotland’s favour the anti-independence politicians’ have been left with no case and are resorting to scaremongering over the future
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2012/nov/ifs-report-shows-scotlands-economy-stronger
Low Winter Sun is a stretched to a series remake of a British (Scottish?) two part drama with the same star relocated to the US. Your mileage may vary...
Watched both - both good. Apart from the first 30 mins there isn't much in common.
As any Chief Executive will tell you, they do all the hard work, whereas the Chairman is usually some boring old fart who only works 2 days a month chairing the board.
http://www.murdermap.co.uk/investigate.asp
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/p6aqslpxs7/YG-Archive-131118-ClimateChange.pdf
Iirc the confusion was over total assets and net assets.
Labour tends to find it hard to get some of its urban voters to turn out to vote if there isn't a general election on the same day. That's why parties like the Greens, BNP, and Residents lost so many seats to Labour in London Borough elections that were held on the same day as the general election, despite winning significant numbers of votes. They were just swamped by Labour voters turning out for the general election, who then voted for their council candidates.
There will be a number of Metropolitan Boroughs where UKIP could be expected to perform well, in South and West Yorkshire, and the West Midlands. Also, a reasonable number of seats are coming up in District Councils, and Unitary Authorities. This round of elections is tailor-made to maximise UKIP turnout.