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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Sykes donation puts up the stakes for Farage at EURO2014 – any less than 1st place will be a failure
For a party that doesn’t have a single MP it’s quite remarkable that UKIP goes into next May’s EU elections as the evens betting favourite to come out top on votes.
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“Calls to quit EU are unpatriotic, says Clegg: He blasts sceptics as UKIP lures multi-millionaire backer”
The article comments are a hoot.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2509405/Calls-quit-EU-unpatriotic-says-Clegg-He-blasts-sceptics-UKIP-lures-multi-millionaire-backer.html
Ladbrokes
Battersea - Conservatives 5/6
Unless you're expecting a Labour majority approaching 100 then that's free money.
Whether Ukip win or not they will still take lots of votes from both major parties at the GE.
Hopefully your lot will voters back from Labour, the ones showing up in the polls right now, and with Ukip taking a lot of the WWC vote it is not as cut and dried as the smug lefties on here lead us to believe.
I think Ukip will take two seats at the GE, which is a big start in readiness for 2020.
Mr. StClare: Clegg is a pathetic little shit. I can see why some might claim membership of the EU is good for Britain. They're wrong, of course, but part of a free society is the right to be wrong and hold silly views.
But to call those who don't want to funnel billions a year to a cabal of meddlesome bureaucratic foreigners unpatriotic is not merely deranged, it's the antithesis of reason.
Clegg's a true patriot, but he thinks his country is the EU.
A definition of Patriotism: - ‘a proud supporter or defender of his or her country and its way of life.’
Who is being un-patriotic here - one could argue there is nothing patriotic in selling out your country to the EU which cares little or nothing of our values, or our way of life.
The Conservatives will also benefit from demographic change and incumbancy (a double incumbancy effect in this case).
Battersea is also likely to benefit from an improving economy more than most other places.
If Labour had a national landslide then could gain Battersea but the chances of that are very low.
When London Labour posters at UKPR have effectively given up hope regarding Battersea its wise to take note.
In 2010 hardly any Labour politicians apart from David Blunkett and John Reid admitted the result was bad for the party because all they wanted to talk about was the fact that Cameron had been 20 points ahead a couple of years earlier and so in comparison to that the election result was very disappointing for the Tories and okay for Labour.
Some people even claimed the 1983 result was disappointing for Mrs Thatcher because the polls just before the election had put the Tories on 47% and they only got 42% in the end.
Yet I cannot see myself voting for UKIP, unless they had a very good local candidate. The reason? Most - if not all - of their vocal supporters seem to want complete disengagement with the EU, as if they could cast the UK adrift somewhere into the mid-Atlantic. I really don't want that, and the moderate UKIP voices are silent.
Add in the fact that some UKIP voices tend to be anti-foreigner and not just anti-immigration, and it becomes even harder for me to vote for them, for the obvious reasons.
But on the positive side, at least they've got rid of Bloom ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Sykes_(businessman)
I think Ukip may struggle with the headlines in the run-up to the Euro elections. Newspapers tend to like the in-fighting, and the BBC, although strictly impartial of course, will take a very patronising attitude.
I remember the mid-seventies referendum campaign. I was then very pro-Europe, but I was astonished by the partiality shown by all the media. Those against hardly got a look-in, and if they did, it would be the Tony Benn fringe element.
The main three parties next year, for different reasons, will be very anti-Ukip, so they'll find it difficult. I'm not sure that possible Daily Mail support will help a lot.
Morris, what Clegg is doing is trying to corner the pro-EU vote. There's enough of it to give the LibDems a good result if they're seen as the only place for Europhiles to go. In a PR system you don't need to bother with trying to get majorities - the trick is to get your slice of the electorate to vote. It's not easy, which is why UKIP should do well next year. They've weathered a long spell with little publicity, most of it bad, with no effect on their polls. I'm not sure that it will matter greatly to them whether they're first or second, but if they beat either Labour or Tories it'll look like a win.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/brazil-early-discussion.html
Whether it rains or not is a crucial question. Sadly, at this stage, it looks like being dry, but there's time for the forecast to change.
It's very unhealthy for the deputy prime minister to accuse those of having the temerity to disagree with his flagrant EU-philia of being unpatriotic. It may work in the short term, in the same way a smear campaign can work in the short term, but in the longer term it does political discourse in this country no good whatsoever.
Just because the EU does not have a reverse gear at the moment (and that is an ominous sign in itself), does not mean that it cannot design and implement one. If they cannot do that, then we should consider saying bye-bye, at least to the bits it makes sense to quit.
Having a reverse gear would hurt them culturally, but you know what? The EU bureaucrats deserve a little cultural pain after what's happened over the last few years. It's clear the EU as it stands is not fully fit for purpose, politically and especially economically. People who put their fingers in their ears and ignore that fact are actually damaging the institution they love.
Having said all that, OGH is right when he has mentioned in the past in the fact that the EU does not rate too highly in polling of people's concerns on a wider basis. UKIP will undoubtedly have a good Euro elections, but transferring that to GE votes would be a much more difficult task. They may manage it, but I doubt it.
UKIP should be worried about the ever falling approval ratings for Mr Farage. He is still ahead of the conventional politicians but he is increasingly being seen as one of them rather than something different. A governor of the BoE type optimist would see this as evidence of UKIP arriving as a genuine party but they are still dangerously dependent on Mr Farage's perceived charm and the bloom (pun definitely intended) is fading somewhat.
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/nov/19/selfie-word-of-the-year-oed-olinguito-twerk
It's also worth recalling that leaving the EU would save us billions every year.
http://www.cityam.com/article/1384827995/there-nothing-worse-self-righteousness-business
Arrogance, poor controls, incompetence, politicisation, hubris and especially self-righteousness and moral superiority – guess what? They never work."
We have had Cameron
http://www.lbc.co.uk/david-cameron-ukip-fruitcakes-and-loonies-63456
The foolish Lord Heseltine
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10351499/Ukip-is-a-racist-party-says-Heseltine.html
Labour & their QT Stooges
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2292995/Question-Time-How-Labour-Party-planted-diehard-supporter-audience-attack-UKIP-panellist.html
The tories are focused on attaining the maximum vote share in May 2015, as opposed to November 2013.
End thread
Indeed, it may end up helping a pro-EU party return to government.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
The real question is the kind posturing/concessions Cammie makes after next May's EU elections to appease his gullible eurosceptic backbenchers for the umpteenth time. They will of course get overexcited about what seems to be on the table before belatedly realising they've been sold a pup yet again. They want some red lines on repatriating powers so he'll give them yet more Cast Iron Guarantees that won't stand up to much scrutiny for very long.
As for the kippers it's all about how hard and how fast they fall after next May's EU elections. Even after this May and their laughable conference (as well as the political narrative being very obviously focused elsewhere) they have dropped to nowhere near the 3% they received in 2010. Or even the 5% Cammie says they need to drop to for him to have any chance.
FPT - 14. Denis MacShane facing jail after admitting false expenses claims of £13,000.
I’d have thought having pleaded guilty, a non-custodial sentence the more likely? – or does waiting 4 years to come clean, negate the 11th hour confession?
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/denis-macshane-facing-jail-after-admitting-false-expenses-claims-of-13000-8947125.html
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 1m
The chairman of the Co-operative Group Len Wardle has resigned with immediate effect
Only venal Tories who would never have to worry about it could be as heartless as this. What evil creatures, all to fund their tax cuts and heat their stables of course.
Next you will be advising that they should eat cake whilst attached to the machines
To the marginally less anoraky public, UKIP has kicked out Bloom, while Diane James and Paul Nuttall are increasingly on air.
Anyone calling it a failure if UKIP get around 10% of the votes but no MPs in 2015 needs their head examined.
** and as I write, another thread has appeared that seems to be written by a worried Conservative
BBC Business News Ticker
Must say that responding to emails takes up about 10-15% of my time.
I can see MacShane, getting a similar sentence.
That said, given his age and a low chance of reoffending, judges don't like sending pensioners to prison for non sexual, non violent crimes.
The anticipation is that they shall and should outpoll the Tories.
Anything less would be bad.
I mean they outpolled Labour in 2009
People arent thinking about the Euros yet. UKIP will start ramping up next year when it gets covered more.
"In the coming months UKIP MEPs and Farage in particular are going to come under fierce attack from the Tories who don’t want them to get any traction whatsoever from the May 2014 outcome. Their attendance records, their expenses and the fact that so many of those elected at EURO2009 are no longer with the party are going to be highlighted."
People dont care about the European Parliament so I doubt they worry much if MEPs dont attend much. Perhaps it's a bonus for them.
Events are closing in on Ed Balls
The Co-op has launched an internal audit into the behaviour of the Rev Paul Flowers following revelations that he bought drugs and – according to the Sun this morning – used rent boys while on bank business. Will Labour follow suit? Ed Miliband has played down his and the party's links with the Methodist minister. The Labour leader met Rev Flowers in his Commons office last year, and appointed him to his Business and Industry Advisory Group in 2010. More awkward is the revelation that the Reverend arranged a £50,000 donation to Ed Balls' office last year. Mr Flowers was suspended from his membership of the Labour party yesterday while the police investigate his activities.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100246554/events-are-closing-in-on-ed-balls/
UKIP has now more than 32,000 members and still growing; the only party that is not shedding members.
It is of course possible to be patriotic in more than one way. But all too few seem to remember that.
1. The FSA appeared concerned at Flowers negligible banking experience and so required 2 deputies with banking experience to also be appointed.
2. Flowers felt he was up to the job because the FSA and the Co-Op committees thought he was. That seems to be his justification.
3. In the plans to buy a chunk of Lloyds branches which collapsed, the 2 deputies with banking expertise voted against the plan, all the other directors reportedly voted to pursue it. Begs the question who else on the board is equally unqualified for the job?
4. When challenged about the size of the loan book, asset value of the bank Flowers either was totally wrong or had no idea at all. We've heard the £3bn vs £47bn asset, but he had NO idea or number at all for the loan book size.
5. The main achievement he seemed to claim whilst being Chairman was altering the board to have some females on it, previously all men...... this tells you so much doesn't it about an organisation that he left when it made losses in the summer of £700m +
6. My clients are getting in touch as they are nervous about their money with Britannia and the Co-op 'brand' is being massively damaged - now being bundled up along with RBS, Northern Rock et al and crucially its USP is in peril as it comes accross as a band of amateurs.
7. If the Co-op had been nationalised, what would have happened to the Labour connections and all the funding???
TSE has to be huge odds on
BBC Business Live
Wrong skill sets or just not good enough against global competition?
A £5000 deposit is required to stand in European elections. This will be returned if a candidate obtains 2.5% of the votes cast in the entire region.
http://www.independentnetwork.org.uk/research/independents-european-elections
http://order-order.com/2013/11/01/ed-balls-5-million-state-subsidy-for-the-guardian/
I feel a whole Nighthawks as Superman thread awaits us.
It was written by our by-elections expert.
As I understand it was a piece written a few months ago and was in the process of being updated when it was accidentally published instead of pressing save to draft on Wordpress.
The answer must be something to do with the Tories. Dave has lost his mojo. I used to think Dave was rock solid - but now I'm disappointed. Badly disappointed. I detest the EU. I detest the waste and nannying of the green agenda. I frankly don't give a shit about gay marriage one way or the other. I think spending billions on overseas development is unjustifiable) and our deficit is way more important than some African prince's next Mercedes). etc. etc.
The bottom line is this - 8 years into his leadership it's still not at all clear what Dave really believes. He wants to be PM but I don't know why anymore. His positions on the EU, deficit (talk but no action), internet naughtiness, defence, gays, and so much more have become unfathomable to me. Simply put - I don't trust him anymore. Whereas I used to assume his default opinion on things would be essentially my own (libertarian, sound money), I now assume his default position will be waffly authoritarian statist crony capitalist surrender monkeyism.
BoJo would be a much better PM. The failure of Labour to collapse is not for their own want of trying. It's because Dave is failing even worse.
binge-watch, verb:
to watch multiple episodes of a television programme in rapid succession, typically by means of DVDs or digital streaming. [ORIGIN 1990s: from BINGE + WATCH, after BINGE-EAT, BINGE-DRINK.]
The word binge-watch has been used in the circles of television fandom since the late 1990s, but it has exploded into mainstream use in 2013. The word has come into its own with the advent of on-demand viewing and online streaming. In 2013, binge-watching got a further boost when the video-streaming company Netflix began releasing episodes of its serial programming all at once. In the past year, binge-watching chalked up almost as much evidence on our corpus as binge-eating. (Binge-drinking remains unchallenged in the top position.)
One of the runners up to 'selfie' in word of the year:
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/nov/19/selfie-word-of-the-year-oed-olinguito-twerk
It would be Ironic if the upshot of dragging out an investigation for several years, is that the guilty walk free due to becoming a pensioner or doolally in the interim.
Or not. ;^ )
I suspect Denis MacShane will be spending Christmas in prison due to the aggravating factors in the case and there being very little mitigation.
Love it!
I'm a self-confessed Binge-Watcher in that case. I did all of Supernatural S1-8 in two weeks - plus many others. I think that's about 160 episodes. Smallville was about 220. A very poor finale show but I love it overall. That the writers strung out Clark Kent for 10yrs before he donned his cape is remarkable.
Wardle is typical of the individuals who sit on the Co-op board. Andrew Tyrie, the Tory MP who chairs the Treasury select committee, describes it as an organisation "run by a plastering contractor, a farmer, a telecoms engineer, a computer technician, a nurse, a Methodist minister – who, incidentally, also chaired the bank – and two horticulturalists".
The former Methodist minister – Paul Flowers – will appear before Tyrie's committee next week alongside Barry Tootell, who quit in May when Moody's downgraded Co-op Bank to junk and began to lift the lid on its troubles.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/27/co-operative-group-retail
The Tories are unpopular for a number of reasons at the moment.
They are the Government in a very thin economic climate
They are in coalition and cannot govern as they would do on their own
There is a perception that the leadership is out of touch; but don't rely too much on the Bullingdon Club - It didn't work too well in Crewe & Nantwich - If DC and the team rediscover the drive that got them elected, this could be reversed.
The Coalition will always get the blame for cuts (or smaller increases!) in public spending
Lastly, the Tories aren't trying to make all their future spending committments on taxing Banker's bonuses. The dishonesty of Ed's posturing will hurt him doen the road IMHO
BBC Business Live
So 2015 a good election to lose??
IT'S TEFLON LEN! How Co-op chairman Wardle has survived the storm
Wardle’s political connections have certainly done him no harm.
The former Labour councillor joined the Co-op’s board back in 1992, rising through the ranks to become chairman in 2007.
He was a prominent member of Labour’s sister party, the Co-operative Party, whose current MPs include Labour’s shadow chancellor Ed Balls.
Despite no discernible background in business he now presides over an empire that includes a supermarket, funeral parlours and, of course, a bank.
As a key figure in the Co-operative movement for more than two decades, Wardle has been a central figure in a series of calamitous events that have brought the Co-op Bank to the brink.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2394952/ITS-TEFLON-LEN-How-Co-op-chairman-Wardle-survived-storm.html#ixzz2l5ItsKK1
The Mentalist - spoilers say we're about to discover who Red John is next week - after 4 yrs of waiting, this is apparently a humdinger of an episode. I've been pretty impressed overall at the whole run.
Revolution - much better than S1, and well worth tuning in for - the Earth has no electricity due to nanotechnology blocking it. All very Wild West meets X-Files
Supernatural - after 8 solid seasons, S9 is not impressing me as its all over the place. But I live in hope that God's Angel of Choice will get his grace back and the King of Hell does his mojo.
Haven - I'm really enjoying this after finding the first half of S1 rather peculiar. We're now on S4.
The Originals - more vampires in Louisiana - well that's a novel idea, entertaining but nothing to write home about
Agents of Shield - love it, superb production/SFX quality - its movie stuff but lasts 23 shows. ABC have got this right even if its been a bit slow to get going.
Masters of Sex - just brilliant 1950s, with Michael Sheen as pioneer of sex therapy. He's as convincing as he was Cloughie or Blair. Superb stuff.
Grimm - procedural cop show meets mermaids and werewolves meets Superman of Faerie Tales - excellent mash-up.
Henry V. I know thee not, old man. Fall to thy prayers.
How ill white hairs become a fool and jester!
Falstaff Pual Flower, Henry V Edward Miliband.
Currently massively enjoying House of Cards (US/Netflix version)
Is The Orginals basically a True Blood rerun, or different somehow?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24997876
At least one dead 'diplomat'.
No, I think we need a full judge led, independent inquiry into what was going in the Co-Op / Labour and Co-operative Party. Its what Ed would want.
As you are the poster who repeatedly posted lyrics from High School Musical on this site, I suggest you refrain from criticising other posters from what they post on here.
Nor should you question the intelligence of other posters, individually or as a group.
Is that understood?
http://www.channel4.com/info/press/news/co-operative-funeralcare-apologises-after-dispatches-investigation
The latest expansion by the Co-op is into legal services. Probate, Wills etc ... Which can be expected to be thoroughly thought out by its fine board of professional leaders.
Compare how John Lewis operates for example, as an excellent model for business and employment.
That's one in the eye for those who attack this area.
pic.twitter.com/5sO22lH97Y