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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September 2019 Local By-Election Review

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  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    HYUFD said:

    Vote Leave organising a 'Leavers Party/rally' from 12pm on October 31st in Parliament Square

    Presumably part of Halloween?
    Ann Widdecombe and Jacob Rees Mogg may be in attendance
    Mogg is with her at the rally probably.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    A few months before the 2001 general election in which he first entered Parliament as a Conservative MP, Boris Johnson, then editor of The Spectator, published an article by Taki Theodoracopulos in which Theodoracopulos (usually known as Taki) wrote about the Jewish world conspiracy and declared himself to be a "soi-disant anti-Semite".[108][109][110] Johnson did not sack Taki.[108][110]
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_UK_Conservative_Party#Johnson:_editor_of_The_Spectator_and_parliamentary_candidate
    Taki is a Spectator institution with a few odd views
    It's fine then.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    It won't get that far , if he is defeated on the Queens Speech.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
    What the ones where "collapsing Lab" gained 1 seat from Tories and lost no seats
    OK thanks
    Yeah the ones where they lost 7% support. Those ones
    And gained the seat from "Con holding" who lost 9% of their support and Lost the seat to the collapsing party.

    Perhaps you should do a tutorial on how FPTP works!!
    I didn't realize one ward in a labour held parliamentary seat was better evidence than all of the wards over the course of a month. Perhaps you should do a tutorial on small areas of Luton and their national importance.
    The Ipswich ward also saw a Con to Lab swing yesterday . It had been held by the LDs 2003 - 2011.
    This is factual. Doesn't alter the overall pattern of septembers locals
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Vote Leave organising a 'Leavers Party/rally' from 12pm on October 31st in Parliament Square

    Why 1 hour too late ?
    Surely that's 11 hours early?
    Sounds like Grayling is in charge of it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:



    If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway

    You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.

    I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.

    He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.

    He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
    he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.

    also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
    But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.

    That is why Labour must want it.

    In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.

    The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
    If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
    The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.

    Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.

    And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
    As without Pipsqueek there is no way a Labour PM gets the votes to get to 319 or so minus Sinn Fein and a majority. It is called maths
    And so when Pipsqueak makes her demands, what do you think the other parties will do?

    They say, "Ah yes, we must let Pipsqueak get her way. We won't ask for anything ourselves".
  • nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
  • HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:



    If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway

    You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.

    I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.

    He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.

    He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
    he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.

    also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
    But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.

    That is why Labour must want it.

    In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.

    The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
    If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
    The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.

    Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.

    And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
    As without Pipsqueek there is no way a Labour PM gets the votes to get to 319 or so minus Sinn Fein and a majority. It is called maths
    And so when Pipsqueak makes her demands, what do you think the other parties will do?

    They say, "Ah yes, we must let Pipsqueak get her way. We won't ask for anything ourselves".
    Always the way with people with the casting vote.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    It won't get that far , if he is defeated on the Queens Speech.
    a vote on the queens speech won't happen until after 5 days of debate. it'll be the same day as he is due to go to parliament after the EU summit
  • justin124 said:

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
    What the ones where "collapsing Lab" gained 1 seat from Tories and lost no seats
    OK thanks
    Yeah the ones where they lost 7% support. Those ones
    And gained the seat from "Con holding" who lost 9% of their support and Lost the seat to the collapsing party.

    Perhaps you should do a tutorial on how FPTP works!!
    I didn't realize one ward in a labour held parliamentary seat was better evidence than all of the wards over the course of a month. Perhaps you should do a tutorial on small areas of Luton and their national importance.
    The Ipswich ward also saw a Con to Lab swing yesterday . It had been held by the LDs 2003 - 2011.
    This is factual. Doesn't alter the overall pattern of septembers locals
    The national polls may have been all over the place but the council by-elections have been pretty consistent for a while now, as you indicated.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:



    If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway

    You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.

    I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.

    He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.

    He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
    he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.

    also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
    But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.

    That is why Labour must want it.

    In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.

    The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
    If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
    The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.

    Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.

    And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
    As without Pipsqueek there is no way a Labour PM gets the votes to get to 319 or so minus Sinn Fein and a majority. It is called maths
    And so when Pipsqueak makes her demands, what do you think the other parties will do?

    They say, "Ah yes, we must let Pipsqueak get her way. We won't ask for anything ourselves".
    Always the way with people with the casting vote.
    Pipsqueak no more has the casting vote than the SNP.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Also there is no comma in Middleton Cheney

    But what there IS in Middleton Cheney is a stupendously high murder rate. Thankfully there is also a highly rated local detective who somewhat remarkably is able to clear each one up with the help of just a single sidekick.
    Although, bizarrely, there always seem to be a spate of two or three murders before he finally catches "whodunnit". I wish he were a bit more competent.
    Like Oxford in the Morse era, it makes Baltimore look a safe place.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    It won't get that far , if he is defeated on the Queens Speech.
    The QS being voted down isn't a confidence issue and it's likely Johnson will have to go to the EU council anyway as theres no time for anyone else to be installed. The VONC would follow after any deal is voted on
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    He might manage circa 310 votes. It would then depend on how many Independents and ex-Tories decide to abstain.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Read that Times report on focus groups. Farage has lost his mojo. He’s got a loyal fan club but people see him as an obstacle to Brexit. A toad in the road.

    BXP will get ~10% if there is a GE soon.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.

    Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan.
    Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain.
    He hasn't got the numbers
    Hermon is *really* anti No Deal, so she'd really struggle.
    Slight side issue - but wtf is O'Mara still doing in the House? The man has no honour
    He’s not been found guilty of anything other than being a loathsome twat with a variety of unconvincing excuses for his behaviour. That in the job spec for MPs, I understand.
  • nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    It won't get that far , if he is defeated on the Queens Speech.
    The QS being voted down isn't a confidence issue and it's likely Johnson will have to go to the EU council anyway as theres no time for anyone else to be installed. The VONC would follow after any deal is voted on
    A Confidence Vote would follow a defeat on the Queens Speech.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    It won't get that far , if he is defeated on the Queens Speech.
    The QS being voted down isn't a confidence issue and it's likely Johnson will have to go to the EU council anyway as theres no time for anyone else to be installed. The VONC would follow after any deal is voted on
    A Confidence Vote would follow a defeat on the Queens Speech.
    Yes but may and probably would be delayed until after the EU council
  • nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    It won't get that far , if he is defeated on the Queens Speech.
    The QS being voted down isn't a confidence issue and it's likely Johnson will have to go to the EU council anyway as theres no time for anyone else to be installed. The VONC would follow after any deal is voted on
    A Confidence Vote would follow a defeat on the Queens Speech.
    Yes but may and probably would be delayed until after the EU council
    It would take place the next day. Unlikely to be a statement on the EU council if the Queens Speech vote is lost.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    It won't get that far , if he is defeated on the Queens Speech.
    The QS being voted down isn't a confidence issue and it's likely Johnson will have to go to the EU council anyway as theres no time for anyone else to be installed. The VONC would follow after any deal is voted on
    A Confidence Vote would follow a defeat on the Queens Speech.
    Yes but may and probably would be delayed until after the EU council
    the vote doesn't happen until after 5 days of debate. assuming that debate starts on 14th then the vote would be on 21st (following monday)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:



    If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway

    You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.

    I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.

    He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.

    He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
    he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.

    also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
    But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.

    That is why Labour must want it.

    In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.

    The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
    If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
    After the rotten eggs which the Palace got on prorogation, HM will play a straight bat. Johnson is VoNCed and the Palace will ask for Corbyn. No funny business this time.
    Corbyn delivers letter. Tells HMQ he cannot form a government because of Swinson.
    Election. I don't think Swinson has a veto.
    In the scenario you note Swinson has effected her veto. Corbyn is not Prime Minister.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Also there is no comma in Middleton Cheney

    But what there IS in Middleton Cheney is a stupendously high murder rate. Thankfully there is also a highly rated local detective who somewhat remarkably is able to clear each one up with the help of just a single sidekick.
    Although, bizarrely, there always seem to be a spate of two or three murders before he finally catches "whodunnit". I wish he were a bit more competent.
    Like Oxford in the Morse era, it makes Baltimore look a safe place.
    The Oxford Colleges in the Morse Era are remarkable.

    The Fellowship is always teeming with devil worshippers, sex murderers, paedophiles, rapists, drug dealers & fraudsters.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

  • phiwphiw Posts: 32
    edited September 2019
    Standard end-game strategy for 12-dimensional Mornington backgammon:

    1) Pull the tellers from the Kinnock amendment vote ensuring it passes
    2) Permit the fast-track of the amended Benn Bill in the Lords to receive Royal Assent without amendment
    3) Put up no argument for the long prorogation of Parliament, causing justices to respond strongly to govt, setting up another 'establishment blockage' to Brexit
    4) Shrug shoulders and say "of course we'll obey the law"
    5) Get to October 19th and say, "oh hold on Supreme Court, this Benn Act isn't internally consistent as it makes reference to content and intent in section 1(4) that isn't referenced in the letter provided in the schedule. There's no way that the PM could follow this act without simultaneously violating it".
    6) Sit tight for 2 weeks until Halloween, safe in the knowledge that both Bercow and Corbyn will be done and dusted before Christmas.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    But I’ve just brought my dinner up watching that I may need therapy.
  • nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    No but the Telly is shit at the moment
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    He might manage circa 310 votes. It would then depend on how many Independents and ex-Tories decide to abstain.
    Labour plus Plaid plus Lucas plus SNP plus LDs is 305. He should get Hopkins, OMara and Williamson. Being generous I'll give him Heidi Allen. That's 309. Take off Mann and Hoey and Berger who simply will not vote confidence in him (nor will Chuka but I'll be generous)
    306 is the max I can see voting for him.
    298 Tories and DUP, 5 Change, Austin, Lewis, Woodcock, Field, Elphicke. 308 and game over before the ex Tories even get considered. None of them will vote for him, some will vote against.
    Coalition of chaos loses
  • The apostrophe in peoples' is on the wrong place.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
    Farage sounds desperate now. He also sounds extremist, which he has, crucially, always managed to avoid, hitherto. His shtick was ‘I’m the reasonable guy in the pub.’ This is not that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    HYUFD said:

    Vote Leave organising a 'Leavers Party/rally' from 12pm on October 31st in Parliament Square

    Presumably part of Halloween?
    Bit late for that. After midnight is the Day of the Dead.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
    I think Nigel is starting to get desperate to try and stay relevant.

    The criticism he received from Brexit Party supporters this week for calling for Boris to go must have come as a shock to him.
  • nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    No but the Telly is shit at the moment
    The usual pointless trench-warfare...
  • nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
    Yes, looking as if Nigel has lost it. Dom and Boris can now happily put him on their mantelpiece.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    So, a bit like Boris's Hedge Fund backers, you Auchtentehach Pies stands to cash in if Swinson goes all the way :smiley:

    An outrageous slur on the good name of one of PB's Old and Bold.

    Neither am I in a position to comment on, let alone confirm or deny, that a LibDem surge would lead to a dusting off of plans (in place since the 1906 Liberal landslide) for a flotation of Auchentannach Fine Pies on the London Stock Exchange.
    I can only apologise for the mangling the name of your most august of catering combines; the Chateau Sandale kicked in a little too early!

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    No but the Telly is shit at the moment
    The usual pointless trench-warfare...
    Well I suppose we are used to endless repeats.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    No but the Telly is shit at the moment
    70's Old Grey Whistle Test at 2200 on BBC4 looks promising, but otherwise pretty crap.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    Yep. BXP under 5% if we have left, Tories 40%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
    Farage sounds desperate now. He also sounds extremist, which he has, crucially, always managed to avoid, hitherto. His shtick was ‘I’m the reasonable guy in the pub.’ This is not that.
    Not really, both he and half the cabinet don't want a Deal. He knows it and so does BoZo.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    By definition Corbyn can't be a Caretaker PM as he'll be contesting the General Election to keep the job. Which he'll be able to campaign in as the incumbent. It has to be someone at the end of their career and preferably someone who isn't standing at the GE. They have to be able to say to voters this isn't a coup. I'm here for X months to do Y. There will be an election and you'll be rid of me because I won't even be a candidate. And it should be a ' Tory ' so there is no nominal change in the PM's party. And making Labour MPs support a Tory adds to the voter offer. This isn't a partisan coup in fact it's a sacrifice.

    Kenneth Clarke and Nicholas Soames are the obvious choices.Given their ages I hope this isn't the end of the road for Rory Stewert, Amber Rudd and David Gauke but if it is they'd all be good candidates as well.

    Churchill was a Caretaker PM in June/July 1945.
  • The apostrophe in peoples' is on the wrong place.
    No it isn’t.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    A soft deal and Farage consigned to oblivion wouldn't be a terrible outcome tbh.

    Unfortunately, I don't think this is happening - Brexit is a monumental cock-up, there is no deal a-coming in.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
    Funnily enough Malta voted to become part of the UK but we nixed it because they were wary of loads of colonial MPs if other colonies followed suit so they ended up independent having wanted to be part of our fine nation
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019
    In calling for Boris to resign after the Supreme Court judgement Nigel looks very flaky for the first time as he was pretty supportive of proroguing Parliament at the time.

    This is his LBC show from 28th August when it was announced they were going to prorogue Parliament

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oufNT5Ov3-o
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,387

    The apostrophe in peoples' is on the wrong place.
    I suspect her English is better than your Bulgarian.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    edited September 2019
    phiw said:

    Standard end-game strategy for 12-dimensional Mornington backgammon:

    1) Pull the tellers from the Kinnock amendment vote ensuring it passes
    2) Permit the fast-track of the amended Benn Bill in the Lords to receive Royal Assent without amendment
    3) Put up no argument for the long prorogation of Parliament, causing justices to respond strongly to govt, setting up another 'establishment blockage' to Brexit
    4) Shrug shoulders and say "of course we'll obey the law"
    5) Get to October 19th and say, "oh hold on Supreme Court, this Benn Act isn't internally consistent as it makes reference to content and intent in section 1(4) that isn't referenced in the letter provided in the schedule. There's no way that the PM could follow this act without simultaneously violating it".
    6) Sit tight for 2 weeks until Halloween, safe in the knowledge that both Bercow and Corbyn will be done and dusted before Christmas.


    Section 4(1) that says:

    In section 20(4) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (which provides for regulations to be made amending the definition of exit day) for “may” substitute “must”.

    ??
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    He might manage circa 310 votes. It would then depend on how many Independents and ex-Tories decide to abstain.
    Labour plus Plaid plus Lucas plus SNP plus LDs is 305. He should get Hopkins, OMara and Williamson. Being generous I'll give him Heidi Allen. That's 309. Take off Mann and Hoey and Berger who simply will not vote confidence in him (nor will Chuka but I'll be generous)
    306 is the max I can see voting for him.
    298 Tories and DUP, 5 Change, Austin, Lewis, Woodcock, Field, Elphicke. 308 and game over before the ex Tories even get considered. None of them will vote for him, some will vote against.
    Coalition of chaos loses
    Clarke and Bebb have indicated they might vote for Corbyn.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kinabalu said:

    This is why the Benn Act was probably a mistake. They should have let him go to the summit before acting.

    I feel this too. In fact I feel it strongly.

    They should have let him go and fail to get a Deal. He would have had no excuses.

    This way gives him cover for failure AND a helpful softhead grievance narrative.

    I think the opposition have messed up and Johnson probably wins from here. He gets a majority.
    If people are fool enough to vote for Johnson, knowing what everyone now knows, they'll probably do it regardless of what exactly happens in parliament.

    Ultimately in a democracy there's a limit to what anyone can do to protect people from the consequences of their own stupidity.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    A soft deal and Farage consigned to oblivion wouldn't be a terrible outcome tbh.

    Unfortunately, I don't think this is happening - Brexit is a monumental cock-up, there is no deal a-coming in.
    A soft Deal would not consign Farage to the dustbin. Only No Deal, and a persisting No Deal would do that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    A soft deal and Farage consigned to oblivion wouldn't be a terrible outcome tbh.

    Unfortunately, I don't think this is happening - Brexit is a monumental cock-up, there is no deal a-coming in.
    A soft Deal would not consign Farage to the dustbin. Only No Deal, and a persisting No Deal would do that.
    In which case, I'd rather have Remain and Farage forever bleating from the side.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    HYUFD said:


    Wishful thinking

    Not particularly wishful, I won't be voting at the next General Election & am largely disinterested in the fate of Tories, LibDems and Labour.

    In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?

    Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.

    There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
    The LDs will refuse to back either Corbyn or Boris, that is the reason they are now polling over 20% if they pick either of them they instantly lose about half their vote
    Fine. Then they are forced to choose No Deal. And lose half their vote.

    They have been placed in a position in which they can only make a losing move.
    Nope. Ex-Tories hold the casting vote.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    HYUFD said:

    Vote Leave organising a 'Leavers Party/rally' from 12pm on October 31st in Parliament Square

    Sounds.... Safe
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    He might manage circa 310 votes. It would then depend on how many Independents and ex-Tories decide to abstain.
    Labour plus Plaid plus Lucas plus SNP plus LDs is 305. He should get Hopkins, OMara and Williamson. Being generous I'll give him Heidi Allen. That's 309. Take off Mann and Hoey and Berger who simply will not vote confidence in him (nor will Chuka but I'll be generous)
    306 is the max I can see voting for him.
    298 Tories and DUP, 5 Change, Austin, Lewis, Woodcock, Field, Elphicke. 308 and game over before the ex Tories even get considered. None of them will vote for him, some will vote against.
    Coalition of chaos loses
    Clarke and Bebb have indicated they might vote for Corbyn.
    Still not enough
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Chris said:

    nichomar said:

    Hancock is a plank unable to have a thought of his own ideal cabinet material in this adminisration.

    He was on the World at One today trying to say that the Proroguation was unlawful but not illegal. He seems to be unaware of the difference between an illegal and unlawful act.
    He has an Oxford first in PPE. Are university degrees subject to judicial review?
    £2.99 online.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    A soft deal and Farage consigned to oblivion wouldn't be a terrible outcome tbh.

    Unfortunately, I don't think this is happening - Brexit is a monumental cock-up, there is no deal a-coming in.
    A soft Deal would not consign Farage to the dustbin. Only No Deal, and a persisting No Deal would do that.
    In which case, I'd rather have Remain and Farage forever bleating from the side.
    Farage forever bleating from the side is going to happen no matter what. even if he was PM and got his own FTA with the EU
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
    Funnily enough Malta voted to become part of the UK but we nixed it because they were wary of loads of colonial MPs if other colonies followed suit so they ended up independent having wanted to be part of our fine nation
    Malta would have 3 mps according to the proposal and referendum perhaps they would have got Corbyn over the line
  • Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    A soft deal and Farage consigned to oblivion wouldn't be a terrible outcome tbh.

    Unfortunately, I don't think this is happening - Brexit is a monumental cock-up, there is no deal a-coming in.
    A soft Deal would not consign Farage to the dustbin. Only No Deal, and a persisting No Deal would do that.
    Disagree. Even if the deal was quite disadvantageous, you can't 'feel' money going to the EU every month. If you could, we'd have left years ago.
  • The visible hatred between Nigel Farage and Dominic Cummings, two men both convinced of their own genius and blind to their own flaws, is among the few consolatory amusements of Brexit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    No but the Telly is shit at the moment
    There's always Top of the Pops 1988 on BBC4.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    It does sound like it
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177664471768223744?s=21
    'A deal'? I don't go in for the general low opinon of Farage, but that's just daft. 'A deal' could be everything we want, Macron take to the air saying that Britain has the world's best cuisine, and Cyprus and Malta back. He's effectively saying if it doesn't end in acrimony, we haven't divorced. Don't see the public going for this.
    Funnily enough Malta voted to become part of the UK but we nixed it because they were wary of loads of colonial MPs if other colonies followed suit so they ended up independent having wanted to be part of our fine nation
    Malta would have 3 mps according to the proposal and referendum perhaps they would have got Corbyn over the line
    under DCs act to change the boundaries they'd have 6 or 7 now
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Mis conduct in public office! Where is this going?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    A soft deal and Farage consigned to oblivion wouldn't be a terrible outcome tbh.

    Unfortunately, I don't think this is happening - Brexit is a monumental cock-up, there is no deal a-coming in.
    A soft Deal would not consign Farage to the dustbin. Only No Deal, and a persisting No Deal would do that.
    Disagree. Even if the deal was quite disadvantageous, you can't 'feel' money going to the EU every month. If you could, we'd have left years ago.
    Well, I don't think we will see.

    There is no stopping the car crash No Deal now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    The apostrophe in peoples' is on the wrong place.
    I have no idea who Kristalina is, and I used to pretty plugged in to the IMF community.
  • phiwphiw Posts: 32

    phiw said:

    Standard end-game strategy for 12-dimensional Mornington backgammon:

    1) Pull the tellers from the Kinnock amendment vote ensuring it passes
    2) Permit the fast-track of the amended Benn Bill in the Lords to receive Royal Assent without amendment
    3) Put up no argument for the long prorogation of Parliament, causing justices to respond strongly to govt, setting up another 'establishment blockage' to Brexit
    4) Shrug shoulders and say "of course we'll obey the law"
    5) Get to October 19th and say, "oh hold on Supreme Court, this Benn Act isn't internally consistent as it makes reference to content and intent in section 1(4) that isn't referenced in the letter provided in the schedule. There's no way that the PM could follow this act without simultaneously violating it".
    6) Sit tight for 2 weeks until Halloween, safe in the knowledge that both Bercow and Corbyn will be done and dusted before Christmas.


    Section 4(1) that says:

    In section 20(4) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (which provides for regulations to be made amending the definition of exit day) for “may” substitute “must”.

    ??
    You got me just before my edit! should be 1(4):

    "...a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act
    requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order
    to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United
    Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on
    European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party
    talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the
    need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to
    reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks."

    The letter in the schedule makes no reference to any of this.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If it became necessary to 'stop Corbyn' - if some sort of nasty 2 year coalition was being proposed, Boris could probably get at least Nokes, Burt and Benyon back on team, possibly Vaizey and a couple others. Enough to kill off any chance of Corbyn PM in the unlikely event of an opposition United front
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:



    If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway

    You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.

    I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.

    He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.

    He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
    he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.

    also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
    But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.

    That is why Labour must want it.

    In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.

    The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
    It seems to matter very much to you, what the "pipsqueak" party does. Methinks he doth protest too much ;-)

    If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
    The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.

    Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.

    And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    Farage finally done, a busted flush, must be a great incentive for those spiteful EUrocrats to do a deal with Boris.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    phiw said:

    phiw said:

    Standard end-game strategy for 12-dimensional Mornington backgammon:

    1) Pull the tellers from the Kinnock amendment vote ensuring it passes
    2) Permit the fast-track of the amended Benn Bill in the Lords to receive Royal Assent without amendment
    3) Put up no argument for the long prorogation of Parliament, causing justices to respond strongly to govt, setting up another 'establishment blockage' to Brexit
    4) Shrug shoulders and say "of course we'll obey the law"
    5) Get to October 19th and say, "oh hold on Supreme Court, this Benn Act isn't internally consistent as it makes reference to content and intent in section 1(4) that isn't referenced in the letter provided in the schedule. There's no way that the PM could follow this act without simultaneously violating it".
    6) Sit tight for 2 weeks until Halloween, safe in the knowledge that both Bercow and Corbyn will be done and dusted before Christmas.


    Section 4(1) that says:

    In section 20(4) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (which provides for regulations to be made amending the definition of exit day) for “may” substitute “must”.

    ??
    You got me just before my edit! should be 1(4):

    "...a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act
    requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order
    to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United
    Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on
    European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party
    talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the
    need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to
    reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks."

    The letter in the schedule makes no reference to any of this.
    if that's their 'loophole' it's pretty weak
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Also there is no comma in Middleton Cheney

    But what there IS in Middleton Cheney is a stupendously high murder rate. Thankfully there is also a highly rated local detective who somewhat remarkably is able to clear each one up with the help of just a single sidekick.
    Although, bizarrely, there always seem to be a spate of two or three murders before he finally catches "whodunnit". I wish he were a bit more competent.
    Like Oxford in the Morse era, it makes Baltimore look a safe place.
    The Oxford Colleges in the Morse Era are remarkable.

    The Fellowship is always teeming with devil worshippers, sex murderers, paedophiles, rapists, drug dealers & fraudsters.
    It's no different today. As Mrs Tabman tells me.
  • phiwphiw Posts: 32
    spudgfsh said:

    phiw said:

    phiw said:

    Standard end-game strategy for 12-dimensional Mornington backgammon:

    1) Pull the tellers from the Kinnock amendment vote ensuring it passes
    2) Permit the fast-track of the amended Benn Bill in the Lords to receive Royal Assent without amendment
    3) Put up no argument for the long prorogation of Parliament, causing justices to respond strongly to govt, setting up another 'establishment blockage' to Brexit
    4) Shrug shoulders and say "of course we'll obey the law"
    5) Get to October 19th and say, "oh hold on Supreme Court, this Benn Act isn't internally consistent as it makes reference to content and intent in section 1(4) that isn't referenced in the letter provided in the schedule. There's no way that the PM could follow this act without simultaneously violating it".
    6) Sit tight for 2 weeks until Halloween, safe in the knowledge that both Bercow and Corbyn will be done and dusted before Christmas.


    Section 4(1) that says:

    In section 20(4) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (which provides for regulations to be made amending the definition of exit day) for “may” substitute “must”.

    ??
    You got me just before my edit! should be 1(4):

    "...a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act
    requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order
    to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United
    Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on
    European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party
    talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the
    need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to
    reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks."

    The letter in the schedule makes no reference to any of this.
    if that's their 'loophole' it's pretty weak
    Can't really disagree with you there, but with all the talk by Grieve etc. that it's 'watertight', it's at least something to potentially point to.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    It’s quite interesting to see now that, now we have Johnson, farage is apparently dispensable and is no longer relevant. You are all far to transparent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    I have no idea where Three Bridges is (in West Sussex).

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1177646684475666434
  • rcs1000 said:

    The apostrophe in peoples' is on the wrong place.
    I have no idea who Kristalina is, and I used to pretty plugged in to the IMF community.
    She was the Chief Executive of the World Bank so I’m surprised you hadn’t heard of her.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited September 2019

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:



    If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway

    You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.

    I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.

    He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.

    He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
    he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.

    also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
    But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.

    That is why Labour must want it.

    In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.

    The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
    If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
    The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.

    Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.

    And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
    Your dislike of the LDs borders on the pathological which is fair enough but it does cloud your ability to see things from their POV.

    Both of the parties sustained by our unrepresentative electoral system have moved off towards their respective extremes, lots of people like me can't stand Corbyn or Johnson. We are the voters the LDs are aiming for. We are voting LD because she is not Corbyn or Johnson and to side with either would be fatal.

    The LDs are coming back from a low point positioning themselves as THE remain party and getting say 25% of the vote would be a major step forward. It is an excellent strategy for them, particularly if Brexit doesn't lead us toward the sunlit uplands
  • The visible hatred between Nigel Farage and Dominic Cummings, two men both convinced of their own genius and blind to their own flaws, is among the few consolatory amusements of Brexit.

    :lol:
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GLA going full tilt. They gave 14 days for BJ to respond but have decided screw that and gone to the rozzers. I fancy that means they know it wont lead to anything
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    AndyJS said:

    I have no idea where Three Bridges is (in West Sussex).

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1177646684475666434

    Crawley. A must win marginal for Lab.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    AndyJS said:

    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    No but the Telly is shit at the moment
    There's always Top of the Pops 1988 on BBC4.
    Presumably edited down to about nine minutes?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    OllyT said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:



    If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway

    You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.

    I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.

    He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.

    He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
    he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.

    also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
    But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.

    That is why Labour must want it.

    In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.

    The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
    If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
    The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.

    Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.

    And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
    Your dislike of the LDs borders on the pathological which is fair enough but it does cloud your ability to see things from their POV.

    Both of the parties sustained by our unrepresentative electoral system have moved off towards their respective extremes, lots of people like me can't stand Corbyn or Johnson. We are the voters the LDs are aiming for. We are voting LD because she is not Corbyn or Johnson and to side with either would be fatal.

    The LDs are coming back from a low point positioning themselves as THE remain party and getting say 25% of the vote would be a major step forward. It is an excellent strategy for them, particularly if Brexit doesn't lead us toward the sunlit uplands
    They've been the only consistent party in this whole debacle out of the three 'main' parties and they are now reaping the rewards.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    AndyJS said:

    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    No but the Telly is shit at the moment
    There's always Top of the Pops 1988 on BBC4.
    Presumably edited down to about nine minutes?
    Due to sundry unperson DJs?

    OTOH 1988 was the year of Rick Astley
  • Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Watch farage on sky news to understand why Johnson is shit scared. He is still a very unpleasant man though.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1177660924737589249?s=21
    Sounds like Farage is readying himself for Bojo getting a deal. But I don't think BXP can survive us leaving with a deal. Leave is Leave.
    Agreed. If there is ANY kind of Brexit 90% of the country will think OK, that’s that, why is Farage still here?

    He knows it. He needs an endlessly delayed or revoked Brexit to maintain relevance. His party has failed to build a serious policy platform outwith Brexit, so Brexit is all he has. And if the Tories get Brexit done, then Farage is done, too.

    Farage finally done, a busted flush, must be a great incentive for those spiteful EUrocrats to do a deal with Boris.
    The EU is not going to do anything which allows Johnson to claim victory.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    AndyJS said:

    Logging on to PB for the first time this evening. Has anything important happened in the last few hours?

    My dog, Minton, has eaten my shuttlecock.

    Bad Minton.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    AndyJS said:

    I have no idea where Three Bridges is (in West Sussex).

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1177646684475666434

    The train line from London to Brighton passes thru Redhill (ugh) and Gatwick Airport. Keep goijg down past Gatwick and you get to Three Bridges, a small station that enables you to change to a southwestern bound train that goes thru Chichester and gets to Southampton and thence further points west. There's nothing wrong with Three Bridges but little right with it: WW2 bomb damage and subsequent redevelopment created a lot of places that are dull and anonymous with no real centre or interest. It's a place you come from, not go to. The platforms are bleak and exposed to the elements: not so much dangerous as depressing. Not bad, not good, just a place to sleep before tomorrow's commute.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    Tabman said:

    Chris said:

    nichomar said:

    Hancock is a plank unable to have a thought of his own ideal cabinet material in this adminisration.

    He was on the World at One today trying to say that the Proroguation was unlawful but not illegal. He seems to be unaware of the difference between an illegal and unlawful act.
    He has an Oxford first in PPE. Are university degrees subject to judicial review?
    As several mags have said recently: PPE is the ultimate bullshiters degree.
    £2.99 online.
This discussion has been closed.