Do we know what the timing looks like with regard to blocking No Deal?
Is there a point at which we know the extension isn't happening unless the PM is changed (whether by some legal means or because Boris says go ahead and lock me up)?
Or can Johnson keep his options open until it's too late for MPs to change the PM, so they have to act or not based on a guess about what he's going to do?
according to the benn law it is the 19th October.
Yep EU council ends 18th, any deal agreed voted on 19th and letter to be sent if not agreed in parliament
I’ve read it. There’s nothing revolutionary. A lot of humming and haaahing. Labour MIGHT do this, the SNP PROBABLY want that.
If it turns out to be true, and the Nats and Labour unite to thwart Brexit, and force a GE, then I think that gives Boris a magnificent get out of jail card. He can say, I wanted to brexit but the commies and the scot nats stopped me. Vote for me so I can exert the will of England!
He would wipe out Labour south of the border. He would mop up the bxp. He would get a three figure majority.
By definition Corbyn can't be a Caretaker PM as he'll be contesting the General Election to keep the job. Which he'll be able to campaign in as the incumbent. It has to be someone at the end of their career and preferably someone who isn't standing at the GE. They have to be able to say to voters this isn't a coup. I'm here for X months to do Y. There will be an election and you'll be rid of me because I won't even be a candidate. And it should be a ' Tory ' so there is no nominal change in the PM's party. And making Labour MPs support a Tory adds to the voter offer. This isn't a partisan coup in fact it's a sacrifice.
Kenneth Clarke and Nicholas Soames are the obvious choices.Given their ages I hope this isn't the end of the road for Rory Stewert, Amber Rudd and David Gauke but if it is they'd all be good candidates as well.
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.
The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
also given what she has said about both leaders it would be too much of a climbdown to back either one at this point. even after an election I can't see that changing.
Indeed.
Further, if the "Times" report noted by OGH down thread is accurate in that Jezza is considering standing aside as Prime Minister in the interim then "Lucky Swinson" has had her position validated.
The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .
If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .
The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .
Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.
If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.
I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.
The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.
From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.
I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
Far from it.
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.
The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
Quite. There's no pressure on Swinson to back Corbyn as PM, and every reason why she should not. If it comes to Johnson either resigning or being no confidenced, then all she has to do is suggest that Labour come up with a plausible alternative. She might even venture as far as to name a selection of acceptable (and, unlike the Labour leader, safely pro-EU) candidates.
Labour is even further away from a majority than what's left of the Conservative Party. The latter has been criticised for its failure to make an acceptable compromise on Brexit, so there's no harm in calling out the former for the same failing, should they insist on advancing a Prime Ministerial candidate who is regarded with disdain by the large majority of MPs.
Do we know what the timing looks like with regard to blocking No Deal?
Is there a point at which we know the extension isn't happening unless the PM is changed (whether by some legal means or because Boris says go ahead and lock me up)?
Or can Johnson keep his options open until it's too late for MPs to change the PM, so they have to act or not based on a guess about what he's going to do?
according to the benn law it is the 19th October.
Yep EU council ends 18th, any deal agreed voted on 19th and letter to be sent if not agreed in parliament
could the EU make a statement at the council, regardless of what BJ says, that an extension until 31 Jan is available and agreed unanimously by the member states. it'd put pressure on BJ to take it even if he didn't want to and would allow a temp PM to write the letter and get the extension without another emergency council (like before)
Do we know what the timing looks like with regard to blocking No Deal?
Is there a point at which we know the extension isn't happening unless the PM is changed (whether by some legal means or because Boris says go ahead and lock me up)?
Or can Johnson keep his options open until it's too late for MPs to change the PM, so they have to act or not based on a guess about what he's going to do?
according to the benn law it is the 19th October.
Yep EU council ends 18th, any deal agreed voted on 19th and letter to be sent if not agreed in parliament
could the EU make a statement at the council, regardless of what BJ says, that an extension until 31 Jan is available and agreed unanimously by the member states. it'd put pressure on BJ to take it even if he didn't want to and would allow a temp PM to write the letter and get the extension without another emergency council (like before)
I expect that unless they go with this is the deal, no extensions
But what there IS in Middleton Cheney is a stupendously high murder rate. Thankfully there is also a highly rated local detective who somewhat remarkably is able to clear each one up with the help of just a single sidekick.
The elderly spinster who lives near the church often assists. Her clear sight and fine understanding of human nature yields results where cruder police methods may fail. Some say she solves the crimes and lets the police take the credit.
It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa
Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287 Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303 Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.
Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan. Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers
Hermon is *really* anti No Deal, so she'd really struggle.
Slight side issue - but wtf is O'Mara still doing in the House? The man has no honour
Presumably the motivation is financial: as long as he's in office he continues to receive his salary. Also, I believe that sitting MPs who contest their seats and are defeated get some kind of parachute payment.
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
indeed, there's been no obvious sign that he's got any significant new ideas to get a deal and there no obvious sign that the EU are going to change their minds on the fixed text of TMs deal.
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.
The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
Let's see how this plays out for the "lottery winners".
There has been little scrutiny of Swinson so far -- let's wait and see.
I would agree that there is a huge amount of fluidity in the present situation and Swinson may indeed face more difficult situations and her luck may run out.
However I think it's fair to say that so far a mixture of luck and judgment (in what proportions who knows?) has seen Swinson and the LibDems in a position that last year would have been unthinkable.
It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa
Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287 Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303 Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.
Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan. Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers
Hermon is *really* anti No Deal, so she'd really struggle.
Slight side issue - but wtf is O'Mara still doing in the House? The man has no honour
Presumably the motivation is financial: as long as he's in office he continues to receive his salary. Also, I believe that sitting MPs who contest their seats and are defeated get some kind of parachute payment.
I believe he's not standing at the next election. he expected an election soon and didn't see the need for a by-election which was going to be overtaken by a general election
The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .
If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .
The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .
Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.
If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.
I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.
The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.
From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.
I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
Far from it.
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.
The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
So, a bit like Boris's Hedge Fund backers, you Auchtentehach Pies stands to cash in if Swinson goes all the way
If it turns out to be true, and the Nats and Labour unite to thwart Brexit, and force a GE, then I think that gives Boris a magnificent get out of jail card. He can say, I wanted to brexit but the commies and the scot nats stopped me. Vote for me so I can exert the will of England!
He would wipe out Labour south of the border. He would mop up the bxp. He would get a three figure majority.
Yes, that seems like the game plan. I wouldn't be *that* confident it would triumph but it's a decent strategy, if he can somehow avoid consequences for breaking the law, or bluff the opposition into moving on him before he has to.
The hitch is that because he gave away his majority, the opposition can now GNU instead of GoNAfaE and actually deliver Brexit (or a referendum-enabled end to it). That leaves Boris in opposition for quite a long time. This could of course end up dissolving in acrimony, and arguably he'd win a subsquent election through leaver rage at an excessively soft brexit (or no brexit) but there's a real risk he'd just end up looking like a chump.
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
Or, to put it another way: "failing and blaming" is a deliberate strategy designed to stoke hatred and enable them to wage a culture war.
If you need any other lineaments discerning, please let me know. I also can detect faint glimmers and have been known to use the word "deconstruction" without laughing. Sometimes I get this elderly spinster who lives near the church to help...
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
indeed, there's been no obvious sign that he's got any significant new ideas to get a deal and there no obvious sign that the EU are going to change their minds on the fixed text of TMs deal.
This is how I see it.
If Boris gets to no deal, we’re out and he wins and will romp home in a GE shortly after. Unless no deal is really a disaster. But if it a disaster then he must be stopped!
So the opposition have to stop him whether it is a disaster or not.
They thought they’d stopped him with the Surrender Act, but now they’re not sure. See john major yesterday. They’re panicking. They’re scared of big bad Dom. He’s so clever. He plays 9d chess and poker on Betelgeuse.
So they can’t risk letting him run the clock down as they’d hoped. See sturgeon today. She’s desperate. So desperate she’ll consider putting Corbyn into number 10. That’s pretty fucking desperate.
But if Labour and the Nats combine to scupper English brexit, Boris will canter home to a huge majority in the next GE.
It’s clever. There are huge risks for Boris too, of course. But it’s properly clever.
The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .
If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .
The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .
Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.
If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.
I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.
The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.
From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.
I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
Far from it.
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.
The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
Quite. There's no pressure on Swinson to back Corbyn as PM, and every reason why she should not. If it comes to Johnson either resigning or being no confidenced, then all she has to do is suggest that Labour come up with a plausible alternative. .
If PC & Green & SNP are happy to back Corby, then I think there is pressure onto LibDems to agree.
If Labour want to win the election, their best bet IMO is to get Corby into No 10.
Even on a temporary basis, he could announce some cool things, e.g. cancellation of all student debt.
That would be popular, and would transform Labour's election prospects.
The situation can develop so that the LibDems are caught in a trap. Which is in every other party's interests !
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
FWIW, if Johnson refuses to obey the Benn Act then, presumably, Parliament will be forced to remove him and install a replacement to ask for the extension?
It's also possible that Johnson may then attempt to counter any legal moves against him by seeking to have the Benn Act itself ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Parliament itself is no more an absolute power than Government.
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
This is why the Benn Act was probably a mistake. They should have let him go to the summit before acting.
there would not have been the time afterwards.
There would. In extremis a VONC and replacement with a caretaker PM could be done in an afternoon. If Boris came back with no deal, it’s not hard to imagine the political will being there.
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
FWIW, if Johnson refuses to obey the Benn Act then, presumably, Parliament will be forced to remove him and install a replacement to ask for the extension?
It's also possible that Johnson may then attempt to counter any legal moves against him by seeking to have the Benn Act itself ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Parliament itself is no more an absolute power than Government.
If it turns out to be true, and the Nats and Labour unite to thwart Brexit, and force a GE, then I think that gives Boris a magnificent get out of jail card. He can say, I wanted to brexit but the commies and the scot nats stopped me. Vote for me so I can exert the will of England!
He would wipe out Labour south of the border. He would mop up the bxp. He would get a three figure majority.
Yes, that seems like the game plan. I wouldn't be *that* confident it would triumph but it's a decent strategy, if he can somehow avoid consequences for breaking the law, or bluff the opposition into moving on him before he has to.
The hitch is that because he gave away his majority, the opposition can now GNU instead of GoNAfaE and actually deliver Brexit (or a referendum-enabled end to it). That leaves Boris in opposition for quite a long time. This could of course end up dissolving in acrimony, and arguably he'd win a subsquent election through leaver rage at an excessively soft brexit (or no brexit) but there's a real risk he'd just end up looking like a chump.
Hasn’t the Lib Dem stance effectively killed off the idea of a second referendum? Their stance is that a simple GE majority allows you to ignore a referendum. Were a second referendum to take place it could simply be ignored by any Brexit-minded party that might win a majority subsequently.
The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .
If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .
The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .
Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.
If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.
I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.
The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.
From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.
I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
Far from it.
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.
The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
Quite. There's no pressure on Swinson to back Corbyn as PM, and every reason why she should not. If it comes to Johnson either resigning or being no confidenced, then all she has to do is suggest that Labour come up with a plausible alternative. .
If PC & Green & SNP are happy to back Corby, then I think there is pressure onto LibDems to agree.
If Labour want to win the election, their best bet IMO is to get Corby into No 10.
Even on a temporary basis, he could announce some cool things, e.g. cancellation of all student debt.
That would be popular, and would transform Labour's election prospects.
The situation can develop so that the LibDems are caught in a trap. Which is in every other party's interests !
If it turns out to be true, and the Nats and Labour unite to thwart Brexit, and force a GE, then I think that gives Boris a magnificent get out of jail card. He can say, I wanted to brexit but the commies and the scot nats stopped me. Vote for me so I can exert the will of England!
He would wipe out Labour south of the border. He would mop up the bxp. He would get a three figure majority.
Yes, that seems like the game plan. I wouldn't be *that* confident it would triumph but it's a decent strategy, if he can somehow avoid consequences for breaking the law, or bluff the opposition into moving on him before he has to.
The hitch is that because he gave away his majority, the opposition can now GNU instead of GoNAfaE and actually deliver Brexit (or a referendum-enabled end to it). That leaves Boris in opposition for quite a long time. This could of course end up dissolving in acrimony, and arguably he'd win a subsquent election through leaver rage at an excessively soft brexit (or no brexit) but there's a real risk he'd just end up looking like a chump.
Hasn’t the Lib Dem stance effectively killed off the idea of a second referendum? Their stance is that a simple GE majority allows you to ignore a referendum. Were a second referendum to take place it could simply be ignored by any Brexit-minded party that might win a majority subsequently.
God bless you, but I think that's the first time anybody's ever used the words "Lib Dems" and "effective" in the same sentence...
So, a bit like Boris's Hedge Fund backers, you Auchtentehach Pies stands to cash in if Swinson goes all the way
An outrageous slur on the good name of one of PB's Old and Bold.
Neither am I in a position to comment on, let alone confirm or deny, that a LibDem surge would lead to a dusting off of plans (in place since the 1906 Liberal landslide) for a flotation of Auchentannach Fine Pies on the London Stock Exchange.
If it turns out to be true, and the Nats and Labour unite to thwart Brexit, and force a GE, then I think that gives Boris a magnificent get out of jail card. He can say, I wanted to brexit but the commies and the scot nats stopped me. Vote for me so I can exert the will of England!
He would wipe out Labour south of the border. He would mop up the bxp. He would get a three figure majority.
Yes, that seems like the game plan. I wouldn't be *that* confident it would triumph but it's a decent strategy, if he can somehow avoid consequences for breaking the law, or bluff the opposition into moving on him before he has to.
The hitch is that because he gave away his majority, the opposition can now GNU instead of GoNAfaE and actually deliver Brexit (or a referendum-enabled end to it). That leaves Boris in opposition for quite a long time. This could of course end up dissolving in acrimony, and arguably he'd win a subsquent election through leaver rage at an excessively soft brexit (or no brexit) but there's a real risk he'd just end up looking like a chump.
Hasn’t the Lib Dem stance effectively killed off the idea of a second referendum? Their stance is that a simple GE majority allows you to ignore a referendum. Were a second referendum to take place it could simply be ignored by any Brexit-minded party that might win a majority subsequently.
That’s exactly how it is today as it was in 83 when Foot went to the country with an immediate leave promise. He didn’t win so we didn’t leave. If you win an election on a manifesto pledge to do x the you can do x so if Johnson does a deal an TBP win an election on a pledge to suspend talks a go to WTO rules they can. The lib dem stance sets no precedent whatsoever. Interesting that 36 years latter the Tory’s are supporting the policies of, allegedly, the most left wing candidate to be PM whilst keeping a straight face.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
If it turns out to be true, and the Nats and Labour unite to thwart Brexit, and force a GE, then I think that gives Boris a magnificent get out of jail card. He can say, I wanted to brexit but the commies and the scot nats stopped me. Vote for me so I can exert the will of England!
He would wipe out Labour south of the border. He would mop up the bxp. He would get a three figure majority.
Yes, that seems like the game plan. I wouldn't be *that* confident it would triumph but it's a decent strategy, if he can somehow avoid consequences for breaking the law, or bluff the opposition into moving on him before he has to.
The hitch is that because he gave away his majority, the opposition can now GNU instead of GoNAfaE and actually deliver Brexit (or a referendum-enabled end to it). That leaves Boris in opposition for quite a long time. This could of course end up dissolving in acrimony, and arguably he'd win a subsquent election through leaver rage at an excessively soft brexit (or no brexit) but there's a real risk he'd just end up looking like a chump.
Hasn’t the Lib Dem stance effectively killed off the idea of a second referendum? Their stance is that a simple GE majority allows you to ignore a referendum. Were a second referendum to take place it could simply be ignored by any Brexit-minded party that might win a majority subsequently.
Clearly a Revoke policy does establish a hierarchy, with parliament able to over rule a plebiscite. I think that a second referendum is suggested to be mandatory rather than advisory.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Funnily enough, I suspect that Jezza has seen it but he's become a captive of the other frontbenchers on Brexit. During Wednesday's exchanges did I hear Boris say that the first draft of Jezza's Conference speech included a call for an immediate GE?
Clearly a Revoke policy does establish a hierarchy, with parliament able to over rule a plebiscite. I think that a second referendum is suggested to be mandatory rather than advisory
as far as i'm aware, there is no such thing as a mandatory referendum in this country. whatever the result you still have to pass law to action it. I don't think you can write law stating 'if the referendum result is X do Y' (I may be wrong though)
Hasn’t the Lib Dem stance effectively killed off the idea of a second referendum? Their stance is that a simple GE majority allows you to ignore a referendum. Were a second referendum to take place it could simply be ignored by any Brexit-minded party that might win a majority subsequently.
It could indeed, but this was already true - they'd probably boycott a second referendum and pledge to enact the first one.
However, once brexit was cancelled I'm not sure there would be a huge amount of popular support for ressurecting it: Right now the pro-brexit parties benefit from a combination of "I want brexit" and "we should get it done and move on". But once it's stopped you lose the second group, and it sounds hard to win a majority with just the first, especially if it remains split between two parties.
Hancock is a plank unable to have a thought of his own ideal cabinet material in this adminisration.
He was on the World at One today trying to say that the Proroguation was unlawful but not illegal. He seems to be unaware of the difference between an illegal and unlawful act.
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
FWIW, if Johnson refuses to obey the Benn Act then, presumably, Parliament will be forced to remove him and install a replacement to ask for the extension?
It's also possible that Johnson may then attempt to counter any legal moves against him by seeking to have the Benn Act itself ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Parliament itself is no more an absolute power than Government.
The SC cannot strike down primary legislation
Can't it? If Parliament legislated for the abolition of the courts, or the abolition of itself, or the ritual burning of everybody called Colin, would no remedy exist?
Statute can already be overridden if ruled to contravene the Human Rights Act. Why should the same protection not apply to the ancient conventions of the common law, if the courts view it as justified?
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
FWIW, if Johnson refuses to obey the Benn Act then, presumably, Parliament will be forced to remove him and install a replacement to ask for the extension?
It's also possible that Johnson may then attempt to counter any legal moves against him by seeking to have the Benn Act itself ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Parliament itself is no more an absolute power than Government.
The SC cannot strike down primary legislation
Can't it? If Parliament legislated for the abolition of the courts, or the abolition of itself, or the ritual burning of everybody called Colin, would no remedy exist?
Statute can already be overridden if ruled to contravene the Human Rights Act. Why should the same protection not apply to the ancient conventions of the common law, if the courts view it as justified?
Because we have a shit system and parliament is sovereign. It needs overhaul. As it stands the supreme court cannot strike down primary legislation
Clearly a Revoke policy does establish a hierarchy, with parliament able to over rule a plebiscite. I think that a second referendum is suggested to be mandatory rather than advisory
as far as i'm aware, there is no such thing as a mandatory referendum in this country. whatever the result you still have to pass law to action it. I don't think you can write law stating 'if the referendum result is X do Y' (I may be wrong though)
Sure you can, that's how the AV vote was set up.
You can't stop a subsequent parliament from repealing the law, though.
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
FWIW, if Johnson refuses to obey the Benn Act then, presumably, Parliament will be forced to remove him and install a replacement to ask for the extension?
It's also possible that Johnson may then attempt to counter any legal moves against him by seeking to have the Benn Act itself ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Parliament itself is no more an absolute power than Government.
The SC cannot strike down primary legislation
Can't it? If Parliament legislated for the abolition of the courts, or the abolition of itself, or the ritual burning of everybody called Colin, would no remedy exist?
Statute can already be overridden if ruled to contravene the Human Rights Act. Why should the same protection not apply to the ancient conventions of the common law, if the courts view it as justified?
They can rule legislation in contravention of the HRA, say, but the government still has to pass new primary legislation to change the law.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
If you imagine Corbyn as your elite there's no hope for the world. Far less hope for you.
Corbyn is the small-mac in a big-mac universe, he's the clown that no-one laughs at, and all that sort of stuff.
The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .
If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .
The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .
Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.
If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.
I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.
The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.
From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.
I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
Far from it.
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and y the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
Quite. There's no pressure on Swinson to back Corbyn as PM, and every reason why she should not. If it comes to Johnson either resigning or being no confidenced, then all she has to do is suggest that Labour come up with a plausible alternative. .
If PC & Green & SNP are happy to back Corby, then I think there is pressure onto LibDems to agree.
If Labour want to win the election, their best bet IMO is to get Corby into No 10.
Even on a temporary basis, he could announce some cool things, e.g. cancellation of all student debt.
That would be popular, and would transform Labour's election prospects.
The situation can develop so that the LibDems are caught in a trap. Which is in every other party's interests !
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
Not particularly wishful, I won't be voting at the next General Election & am largely disinterested in the fate of Tories, LibDems and Labour.
In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?
Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.
There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
Corbyn doesn't have the unequivocal support of the SNP and I doubt they do of PC and Green. it's a subtle difference but it makes a difference overall
The SNP will never find a more sympathetic PM. I expect they can extract a useful concession from him.
I expect PC will do what Labour tell then -- why would they break a habit of a lifetime? (Just a few days ago, they voted with Labour to prevent publication of the report into the death of Carl Sergeant in the WA).
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
Queen Jane was not in office, she was monarch. Nor was she a failure, she was murdered by the usurper Mary
For the first time in a fair wee while I can see how this plays out in Boris’s favour, and maybe discern the lineaments of Dom’s plan
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
FWIW, if Johnson refuses to obey the Benn Act then, presumably, Parliament will be forced to remove him and install a replacement to ask for the extension?
It's also possible that Johnson may then attempt to counter any legal moves against him by seeking to have the Benn Act itself ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Parliament itself is no more an absolute power than Government.
The SC cannot strike down primary legislation
Can't it? If Parliament legislated for the abolition of the courts, or the abolition of itself, or the ritual burning of everybody called Colin, would no remedy exist?
Statute can already be overridden if ruled to contravene the Human Rights Act. Why should the same protection not apply to the ancient conventions of the common law, if the courts view it as justified?
The only unchallenged principle in our constitution is the sovereignty of crown in Parliament, so if Parliament voted to abolish all courts or indeed anything else and the monarch signed the bill that would become the new law of the land
Not particularly wishful, I won't be voting at the next General Election & am largely disinterested in the fate of Tories, LibDems and Labour.
In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?
Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.
There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
The LDs will refuse to back either Corbyn or Boris, that is the reason they are now polling over 20% if they pick either of them they instantly lose about half their vote
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Debt Bill.
The forecast for Hurricane Lorenzo is continuing to look interesting, though mostly for my brother-in-law's wedding in County Cork than for most of the rest of Britain and Ireland at this point.
It wouldn't take much of a change to see it head across southern Britain at strength though.
Not particularly wishful, I won't be voting at the next General Election & am largely disinterested in the fate of Tories, LibDems and Labour.
In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?
Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.
There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
The LDs will refuse to back either Corbyn or Boris, that is the reason they are now polling over 20% if they pick either of them they instantly lose about half their vote
Fine. Then they are forced to choose No Deal. And lose half their vote.
They have been placed in a position in which they can only make a losing move.
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
Get out and speak to people. Nobody outside the Westminster bubble gives a flying fuck that Boris lost some votes in parliament. They see him taking any action possible to enact the referendum result and being thwarted at every turn by the establishment.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Labour have no choice but to oppose No Deal. When crafting a strategy it helps to know what your opponent must do.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
Queen Jane was not in office, she was monarch. Nor was she a failure, she was murdered by the usurper Mary
If her aim was not to get murdered, it was a failure.
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
Hancock is a plank unable to have a thought of his own ideal cabinet material in this adminisration.
He was on the World at One today trying to say that the Proroguation was unlawful but not illegal. He seems to be unaware of the difference between an illegal and unlawful act.
He has an Oxford first in PPE. Are university degrees subject to judicial review?
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Labour have no choice but to oppose No Deal. When crafting a strategy it helps to know what your opponent must do.
Labour had three chances to oppose no deal. They failed on all three attempts.
This is why the Benn Act was probably a mistake. They should have let him go to the summit before acting.
I feel this too. In fact I feel it strongly.
They should have let him go and fail to get a Deal. He would have had no excuses.
This way gives him cover for failure AND a helpful softhead grievance narrative.
I think the opposition have messed up and Johnson probably wins from here. He gets a majority.
They always have excuses.
Apart from anything else Johnson could have carried on saying he'd get a deal at the last minute, right up until the last minute. Then he could have crashed out and pivotted to patriotic champion against the perfidious foreigners who are blocading our ports etc etc.
It's possible that he was bluffing all along and would have ended up taking an extension with a Tsipras-like shrug, but for the opposition to try to call that bluff would have needed a degree of cynically not giving a fuck about the voters that's beyond even them.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
Get out and speak to people. Nobody outside the Westminster bubble gives a flying fuck that Boris lost some votes in parliament. They see him taking any action possible to enact the referendum result and being thwarted at every turn by the establishment.
Labour are walking into Dom's trap.
Would this be the same trap that converted a minute majority into a large minority, lost every vote in the HoC so far and got hammered in the Supreme Court?
It is a strange kind of victory that has screw-up followed by mess up followed by balls-up.
To me, it looks more like they are utterly clueless. As for what people think, so far "F*ck-wit" is the kindest comment I have heard.
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
Queen Jane was not in office, she was monarch. Nor was she a failure, she was murdered by the usurper Mary
If her aim was not to get murdered, it was a failure.
Exactly. She lasted 9 nine days and had her head cut off. Boris is at least managing better than that.
Not particularly wishful, I won't be voting at the next General Election & am largely disinterested in the fate of Tories, LibDems and Labour.
In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?
Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.
There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
The LDs will refuse to back either Corbyn or Boris, that is the reason they are now polling over 20% if they pick either of them they instantly lose about half their vote
Fine. Then they are forced to choose No Deal. And lose half their vote.
They have been placed in a position in which they can only make a losing move.
No as they have already voted for the Benn Act which has had royal assent and extends to avoid No Deal
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
Get out and speak to people. Nobody outside the Westminster bubble gives a flying fuck that Boris lost some votes in parliament. They see him taking any action possible to enact the referendum result and being thwarted at every turn by the establishment.
Labour are walking into Dom's trap.
Would this be the same trap that converted a minute majority into a large minority, lost every vote in the HoC so far and got hammered in the Supreme Court.
It is a strange kind of victory that has screw-up followed by mess up followed by balls-up.
To me, it looks more like they are utterly clueless. As for what people think, so far "F*ck-wit" is the kindest comment I have heard.
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.
Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.
And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Labour have no choice but to oppose No Deal. When crafting a strategy it helps to know what your opponent must do.
Labour had three chances to oppose no deal. They failed on all three attempts.
Well that's true in a narrow sense, but has no bearing on how they've reacted to Johnson as PM.
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
After the rotten eggs which the Palace got on prorogation, HM will play a straight bat. Johnson is VoNCed and the Palace will ask for Corbyn. No funny business this time. Corbyn delivers letter. Tells HMQ he cannot form a government because of Swinson. Election. I don't think Swinson has a veto.
Not particularly wishful, I won't be voting at the next General Election & am largely disinterested in the fate of Tories, LibDems and Labour.
In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?
Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.
There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
The LDs will refuse to back either Corbyn or Boris, that is the reason they are now polling over 20% if they pick either of them they instantly lose about half their vote
Fine. Then they are forced to choose No Deal. And lose half their vote.
They have been placed in a position in which they can only make a losing move.
No as they have already voted for the Benn Act which has had royal assent and extends to avoid No Deal
No, someone has to send the letter.
Who has sent it if Boris has resigned and recommended to HM that she send for Corbyn?
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Maybe because it is not actually there, or rather it is no darn good for anything. It is all very well game playing, but so far Boris looks like the biggest failure in office since Lady Jane Grey
Get out and speak to people. Nobody outside the Westminster bubble gives a flying fuck that Boris lost some votes in parliament. They see him taking any action possible to enact the referendum result and being thwarted at every turn by the establishment.
Labour are walking into Dom's trap.
Would this be the same trap that converted a minute majority into a large minority, lost every vote in the HoC so far and got hammered in the Supreme Court.
It is a strange kind of victory that has screw-up followed by mess up followed by balls-up.
To me, it looks more like they are utterly clueless. As for what people think, so far "F*ck-wit" is the kindest comment I have heard.
Straws. Keep grasping at them.
I am not the one grasping at straws. I really do not give a monkeys how it turns out, but I am not daft enough to try and delude myself by renaming failure as success.
Part of me even hopes that Leavers get No Deal Brexit so I can watch the spectacle of you all blaming everyone else for us leaving the EU.
Labour are walking into Dom's people vs the elite trap head first. Amazingly it is man of the people Jez that who is about to be cast as the elite while Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton College and Oxford university will be cast in the role of defender of the downtrodden deplorables.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
Labour have no choice but to oppose No Deal. When crafting a strategy it helps to know what your opponent must do.
Labour had three chances to oppose no deal. They failed on all three attempts.
Well that's true in a narrow sense, but has no bearing on how they've reacted to Johnson as PM.
It absolutely does, their current crusade against no deal rings completely hollow given they've had three opportunities to avoid it. Additionally they have now been outflanked on the remain side by the Lib Dems. They are down on the low 20s for a reason.
It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa
Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287 Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303 Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.
Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.
And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa
Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287 Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303 Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
Not particularly wishful, I won't be voting at the next General Election & am largely disinterested in the fate of Tories, LibDems and Labour.
In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?
Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.
There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
The LDs will refuse to back either Corbyn or Boris, that is the reason they are now polling over 20% if they pick either of them they instantly lose about half their vote
Fine. Then they are forced to choose No Deal. And lose half their vote.
They have been placed in a position in which they can only make a losing move.
No as they have already voted for the Benn Act which has had royal assent and extends to avoid No Deal
No, someone has to send the letter.
Who has sent it if Boris has resigned and recommended to HM that she send for Corbyn?
As Lord Sumption said a civil servant will send it if necessary on behalf of the Government with SC approval
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.
Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.
And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
What the ones where "collapsing Lab" gained 1 seat from Tories and lost no seats OK thanks
Yeah the ones where they lost 7% support. Those ones
And gained the seat from "Con holding" who lost 9% of their support and Lost the seat to the collapsing party.
Perhaps you should do a tutorial on how FPTP works!!
I didn't realize one ward in a labour held parliamentary seat was better evidence than all of the wards over the course of a month. Perhaps you should do a tutorial on small areas of Luton and their national importance.
The Ipswich ward also saw a Con to Lab swing yesterday . It had been held by the LDs 2003 - 2011.
If your main priority is abolishing student debt you are almost certainly already voting Labour anyway
You miss the point. Corbyn has to get the conversation off Brexit if he is to win the next GE.
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Dent Bill.
he can announce it now, it doesn't make a difference. if he could enact anything during the GNU it would but an election will be the price of a GNU.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
But your last sentence is what I am trying to say. JC being PM will have a big impact on the election.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
If you hold the votes that could make someone PM, you are absolutely in a position to make demands.
The point is if all the parties start making demands, they are never going to agree. The clock is ticking.
Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.
And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
As without Pipsqueek there is no way a Labour PM gets the votes to get to 319 or so minus Sinn Fein and a majority. It is called maths
Comments
If it turns out to be true, and the Nats and Labour unite to thwart Brexit, and force a GE, then I think that gives Boris a magnificent get out of jail card. He can say, I wanted to brexit but the commies and the scot nats stopped me. Vote for me so I can exert the will of England!
He would wipe out Labour south of the border. He would mop up the bxp. He would get a three figure majority.
Kenneth Clarke and Nicholas Soames are the obvious choices.Given their ages I hope this isn't the end of the road for Rory Stewert, Amber Rudd and David Gauke but if it is they'd all be good candidates as well.
Further, if the "Times" report noted by OGH down thread is accurate in that Jezza is considering standing aside as Prime Minister in the interim then "Lucky Swinson" has had her position validated.
Labour is even further away from a majority than what's left of the Conservative Party. The latter has been criticised for its failure to make an acceptable compromise on Brexit, so there's no harm in calling out the former for the same failing, should they insist on advancing a Prime Ministerial candidate who is regarded with disdain by the large majority of MPs.
He’s not using No Deal as a weapon against the EU, he’s using it against the opposition parties in the UK
However I think it's fair to say that so far a mixture of luck and judgment (in what proportions who knows?) has seen Swinson and the LibDems in a position that last year would have been unthinkable.
The hitch is that because he gave away his majority, the opposition can now GNU instead of GoNAfaE and actually deliver Brexit (or a referendum-enabled end to it). That leaves Boris in opposition for quite a long time. This could of course end up dissolving in acrimony, and arguably he'd win a subsquent election through leaver rage at an excessively soft brexit (or no brexit) but there's a real risk he'd just end up looking like a chump.
If you need any other lineaments discerning, please let me know. I also can detect faint glimmers and have been known to use the word "deconstruction" without laughing. Sometimes I get this elderly spinster who lives near the church to help...
If Boris gets to no deal, we’re out and he wins and will romp home in a GE shortly after. Unless no deal is really a disaster. But if it a disaster then he must be stopped!
So the opposition have to stop him whether it is a disaster or not.
They thought they’d stopped him with the Surrender Act, but now they’re not sure. See john major yesterday. They’re panicking. They’re scared of big bad Dom. He’s so clever. He plays 9d chess and poker on Betelgeuse.
So they can’t risk letting him run the clock down as they’d hoped. See sturgeon today. She’s desperate. So desperate she’ll consider putting Corbyn into number 10. That’s pretty fucking desperate.
But if Labour and the Nats combine to scupper English brexit, Boris will canter home to a huge majority in the next GE.
It’s clever. There are huge risks for Boris too, of course. But it’s properly clever.
If Labour want to win the election, their best bet IMO is to get Corby into No 10.
Even on a temporary basis, he could announce some cool things, e.g. cancellation of all student debt.
That would be popular, and would transform Labour's election prospects.
The situation can develop so that the LibDems are caught in a trap. Which is in every other party's interests !
It's also possible that Johnson may then attempt to counter any legal moves against him by seeking to have the Benn Act itself ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Parliament itself is no more an absolute power than Government.
* Gold
* Gold
* Gold
https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/1177616587781791744?s=20
Neither am I in a position to comment on, let alone confirm or deny, that a LibDem surge would lead to a dusting off of plans (in place since the 1906 Liberal landslide) for a flotation of Auchentannach Fine Pies on the London Stock Exchange.
How have Labour not seen any of this coming?!
In a fight between Corbyn & the LibDems, why should Corbyn back down?
Especially if Corbyn has the support of PC + Green + SNP.
There was quite a lot of steel shown at the Labour Party Conference. Corbyn & McDonnell are playing a ruthless game.
However, once brexit was cancelled I'm not sure there would be a huge amount of popular support for ressurecting it: Right now the pro-brexit parties benefit from a combination of "I want brexit" and "we should get it done and move on". But once it's stopped you lose the second group, and it sounds hard to win a majority with just the first, especially if it remains split between two parties.
Statute can already be overridden if ruled to contravene the Human Rights Act. Why should the same protection not apply to the ancient conventions of the common law, if the courts view it as justified?
You can't stop a subsequent parliament from repealing the law, though.
Corbyn is the small-mac in a big-mac universe, he's the clown that no-one laughs at, and all that sort of stuff.
I expect PC will do what Labour tell then -- why would they break a habit of a lifetime? (Just a few days ago, they voted with Labour to prevent publication of the report into the death of Carl Sergeant in the WA).
I am saying one way of doing that is for Labour to get Corby into No 10, sign an extension for 2 years so he can begin his famous renegotiation, and then announce from No 10 some eye-catching policies.
He won't last long as he can be VNOC-ed, but he needs to get into No 10 and announce some candy.
He dares the opposition parties to vote down his Cancellation of Student Debt Bill.
It wouldn't take much of a change to see it head across southern Britain at strength though.
They should have let him go and fail to get a Deal. He would have had no excuses.
This way gives him cover for failure AND a helpful softhead grievance narrative.
I think the opposition have messed up and Johnson probably wins from here. He gets a majority.
They have been placed in a position in which they can only make a losing move.
also I do think that JC being PM will have a big impact on the election which is why JS doesn't want it.
Labour are walking into Dom's trap.
That is why Labour must want it.
In the end, this will come down to Realpolitick. the Libdems have ~15 votes. They are dwarfed by the SNP and Labour.
The LibDems will not be in a position to make demands.
Apart from anything else Johnson could have carried on saying he'd get a deal at the last minute, right up until the last minute. Then he could have crashed out and pivotted to patriotic champion against the perfidious foreigners who are blocading our ports etc etc.
It's possible that he was bluffing all along and would have ended up taking an extension with a Tsipras-like shrug, but for the opposition to try to call that bluff would have needed a degree of cynically not giving a fuck about the voters that's beyond even them.
It is a strange kind of victory that has screw-up followed by mess up followed by balls-up.
To me, it looks more like they are utterly clueless. As for what people think, so far "F*ck-wit" is the kindest comment I have heard.
https://twitter.com/OdysseanProject/status/1177582197013983232
Why does the Pipsqueak party with 18 votes get a big say? There is Super Jeremy with his tally of 247 votes, and Big Nicola with her tally of 55.
And then Pipsqueak pipes up that because she got 18, everyone has got to do what she says.
Corbyn delivers letter. Tells HMQ he cannot form a government because of Swinson.
Election. I don't think Swinson has a veto.
Who has sent it if Boris has resigned and recommended to HM that she send for Corbyn?
Part of me even hopes that Leavers get No Deal Brexit so I can watch the spectacle of you all blaming everyone else for us leaving the EU.
https://twitter.com/RobBurl/status/1177568642332053510?s=19
Imagine being literally the only person in existence who is suprised by a Brendan O'Neill hot take.
Imagine being that stupid.
Labour will now panic and accept a General Election, ASAP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_UK_Conservative_Party#Johnson:_editor_of_The_Spectator_and_parliamentary_candidate
35 according to this.
My 55 was a typo for 35.