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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September 2019 Local By-Election Review

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September 2019 Local By-Election Review

Votes Cast, Share, Change (in votes and seats) Conservatives 9,961 votes (34% unchanged on last time) winning 9 seats (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 8,000 votes (27% +12% on last time) winning 4 seats (+2 seats on last time) Labour 7,914 votes (27% -7% on last time) winning 6 seats (+1 seat on last time) Scottish National Party 1,202 votes (4% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,170 votes (4% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Independent candidates 655 votes (2% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 seats on last time) Local Independent candidates 23 votes (0% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Other Parties 638 votes (2% -2% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time) Conservative lead of 1,961 votes (7%) on a swing of 6% from Con to Lib Dem United Kingdom Independence Party did not field any candidates (-1% on last time)

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Comments

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Probably Icknield rather than "Icknfield."
  • Also there is no comma in Middleton Cheney
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Third like Labour
  • Chris said:

    Probably Icknield rather than "Icknfield."

    Also there is no comma in Middleton Cheney

    What's with all the nitpicking. This is a proper start to the weekend. Shame there's no Shortee Blitz on 4music anymore.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Firth of forth
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2019
    Giuliani to be called to testify before House Intelligence Committee.
    Rudy's been all over the place lately, admitting Trump's wrongdoing, then desperately trying to reverse again. I would be nervous if I were Trump that he will put his foot in it.
    Mind you, Trump's been trying to get people to claim "executive privilege" when it doesn't apply. Expect some very uncooperative testimonies and potential sanctions from Congress.

    Watch this, folks, this is going to be big.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Noo said:

    Giuliani to be called to testify before House Intelligence Committee.
    Rudy's been all over the place lately, admitting Trump's wrongdoing, then desperately trying to reverse again. I would be nervous if I were Trump that he will put is foot in it.
    Mind you, Trump's been trying to get people to claim "executive privilege" when it doesn't apply. Expect some very uncooperative testimonies and potential sanctions from Congress.

    Watch this, folks, this is going to be big.

    Giuliani will go all guns blazing for Biden in testimony
  • Friday night football

    BFE

    Stoke 2.48
    Nottingham Forrest 3.45
    Draw 3.2

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.162505789
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited September 2019
    Sleazy broken independents and small local parties on the slide
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Oh dear never mind :-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Floater said:
    Posting a link to the Daily Heil? Very bad taste, yes.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
  • TGOHF2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems clear - keep your personal views off the news.

    The BBC's lack of objectivity is manifest in what they chose to cover and what they ignore. For example they've been bigging up the revolting schoolkids story like their salaries depended on it. Last Friday R4 carried a piece from an obscure school in India where 20 pupils had taken to the streets (presumably out of a student body of several hundred if not thousands). The BBC spin was that this was HUGE because last year only 4 kids came out on strike - a five-fold increase!
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    TGOHF2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems clear - keep your personal views off the news.

    The BBC's lack of objectivity is manifest in what they chose to cover and what they ignore. For example they've been bigging up the revolting schoolkids story like their salaries depended on it. Last Friday R4 carried a piece from an obscure school in India where 20 pupils had taken to the streets (presumably out of a student body of several hundred if not thousands). The BBC spin was that this was HUGE because last year only 4 kids came out on strike - a five-fold increase!
    Why do you hate children?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    If losing nearly half your support from a previous GE while in Opposition isn't a collapse I hate to think what a real collapse would look like.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Floater said:
    No it's ok to threaten violence against anyone right of centre. It's like when Kinnock said grind the bastards into the dust. It was friendly violent language.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems clear - keep your personal views off the news.

    The BBC's lack of objectivity is manifest in what they chose to cover and what they ignore. For example they've been bigging up the revolting schoolkids story like their salaries depended on it. Last Friday R4 carried a piece from an obscure school in India where 20 pupils had taken to the streets (presumably out of a student body of several hundred if not thousands). The BBC spin was that this was HUGE because last year only 4 kids came out on strike - a five-fold increase!
    Why do you hate children?
    Maybe @Alphabet_Soup is a teacher?
  • Noo said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems clear - keep your personal views off the news.

    The BBC's lack of objectivity is manifest in what they chose to cover and what they ignore. For example they've been bigging up the revolting schoolkids story like their salaries depended on it. Last Friday R4 carried a piece from an obscure school in India where 20 pupils had taken to the streets (presumably out of a student body of several hundred if not thousands). The BBC spin was that this was HUGE because last year only 4 kids came out on strike - a five-fold increase!
    Why do you hate children?
    eh?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    The 11.5% swing from CON to LD was in Somerset ! Getting closer to Rees-Mogg.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    The 11.5% swing from CON to LD was in Somerset ! Getting closer to Rees-Mogg.

    Local elections =/= general elections
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
    What the ones where "collapsing Lab" gained 1 seat from Tories and lost no seats
    OK thanks
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019
    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa
  • Surely the message from those by-election results is that the Independents and Residents need a new leader?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
    What the ones where "collapsing Lab" gained 1 seat from Tories and lost no seats
    OK thanks
    Yeah the ones where they lost 7% support. Those ones
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
  • I'm pleased to see Amber Rudd on maneuvers. This is a national emergency. All hands on deck. Hopefully Rory Stewert next.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    ydoethur said:

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    If losing nearly half your support from a previous GE while in Opposition isn't a collapse I hate to think what a real collapse would look like.
    I think a collapse is to be 22% ahead at the start of GE 2017 and end up losing your majority.

    I think those underestimating Corbyn again and shouting Lab are in for a tonking based on Polls at least 6 weeks before GE 2019 would learn but obvs. not.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    edited September 2019
    What's the official view on this? How strictly do we have to compare like with like?

    Do we have to compare YouGov/Times with the previous YG/T or can we just go back to the most recent YouGov published poll whether it is commissioned by Times, PV or whoever?

    Seems to me that since it is the same firm they must be using the same methods so we need go back only to the most recent poll by them, no matter who the client is. Is that too simplistic?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    If losing nearly half your support from a previous GE while in Opposition isn't a collapse I hate to think what a real collapse would look like.
    I think a collapse is to be 22% ahead at the start of GE 2017 and end up losing your majority.

    I think those underestimating Corbyn again and shouting Lab are in for a tonking based on Polls at least 6 weeks before GE 2019 would learn but obvs. not.
    Arguably, yes, but you have collapsed nearly that far yourselves.

    Put this in context - right now, even on your own admission, Labour's performance is not quite as dismal as Theresa May's.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    What's the official view on this? How strictly do we have to compare like with like?

    Do we have to compare YouGov/Times with the previous YG/T or can we just go back to the most recent YouGov published poll whether it is commissioned by Times, PV or whoever?

    Seems to me that since it is the same firm they must be using the same methods so we need go back only to the most recent poll by them, no matter who the client is. Is that too simplistic?

    You are correct.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
    What the ones where "collapsing Lab" gained 1 seat from Tories and lost no seats
    OK thanks
    Yeah the ones where they lost 7% support. Those ones
    And gained the seat from "Con holding" who lost 9% of their support and Lost the seat to the collapsing party.

    Perhaps you should do a tutorial on how FPTP works!!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Expect 3 defection reverse ferrets if she does from the former changers
  • Swinson and Soubry are doing both the country and Corbyn himself a favour by vetoing him as caretaker PM. He's fundamentally unsuited to the role and he would be fsr better off contesting the General Election as an opposition leader to suit his style and offer. He also repells exactly the kind of ex Tory Independent MPs who are needed to evict Johnson in the first place. Expect lots of shroud waving but Swinson and Soubry are both right and in a strong negotiating position.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Sleazy broken independents and small local parties on the slide

    No way to describe the labour party
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    As I said in the last thread, the recent pattern has been LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse. Labour in trouble. Good.

    Because YG 1 week ago had

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    Sep 19
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 32%
    LDEM: 23%
    LAB: 21%
    BREX: 14%
    GRN: 4%

    via
    @YouGov

    So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
    I'm obviously talking about recent local by elections as per the thread
    What the ones where "collapsing Lab" gained 1 seat from Tories and lost no seats
    OK thanks
    Yeah the ones where they lost 7% support. Those ones
    And gained the seat from "Con holding" who lost 9% of their support and Lost the seat to the collapsing party.

    Perhaps you should do a tutorial on how FPTP works!!
    I didn't realize one ward in a labour held parliamentary seat was better evidence than all of the wards over the course of a month. Perhaps you should do a tutorial on small areas of Luton and their national importance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Good isn't it. No Deal Brexit preferable to sticking a neutered Corbyn in for a few weeks, Lib Dem more worried about optics than no deal Brexit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Also there is no comma in Middleton Cheney

    But what there IS in Middleton Cheney is a stupendously high murder rate. Thankfully there is also a highly rated local detective who somewhat remarkably is able to clear each one up with the help of just a single sidekick.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019

    Swinson and Soubry are doing both the country and Corbyn himself a favour by vetoing him as caretaker PM. He's fundamentally unsuited to the role and he would be fsr better off contesting the General Election as an opposition leader to suit his style and offer. He also repells exactly the kind of ex Tory Independent MPs who are needed to evict Johnson in the first place. Expect lots of shroud waving but Swinson and Soubry are both right and in a strong negotiating position.

    I fancy a guarantee that the LDs would never put Corbyn in number 10 will have been a promise made to the three changers that have gone over. Rightly so.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Tory Swinson #BOLLOXTOSTOPPINGBREXIT
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    kinabalu said:

    Also there is no comma in Middleton Cheney

    But what there IS in Middleton Cheney is a stupendously high murder rate. Thankfully there is also a highly rated local detective who somewhat remarkably is able to clear each one up with the help of just a single sidekick.
    Although, bizarrely, there always seem to be a spate of two or three murders before he finally catches "whodunnit". I wish he were a bit more competent.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Good isn't it. No Deal Brexit preferable to sticking a neutered Corbyn in for a few weeks, Lib Dem more worried about optics than no deal Brexit.
    True . The Lib Dems are playing games and so are the rest of the anti no dealers who won’t support Corbyn .

    Whether it might suit Corbyn not to ask for the extension is another issue . If these MPs are so worried about no deal they should be able to cope with Corbyn for a few weeks .
  • What's the official view on this? How strictly do we have to compare like with like?

    Do we have to compare YouGov/Times with the previous YG/T or can we just go back to the most recent YouGov published poll whether it is commissioned by Times, PV or whoever?

    Seems to me that since it is the same firm they must be using the same methods so we need go back only to the most recent poll by them, no matter who the client is. Is that too simplistic?

    You are correct.
    Thank you. I hear those words so seldom, from anyone. :(
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Swinson and Soubry are doing both the country and Corbyn himself a favour by vetoing him as caretaker PM. He's fundamentally unsuited to the role and he would be fsr better off contesting the General Election as an opposition leader to suit his style and offer. He also repells exactly the kind of ex Tory Independent MPs who are needed to evict Johnson in the first place. Expect lots of shroud waving but Swinson and Soubry are both right and in a strong negotiating position.

    Although Ken Clarke says he would back Corbyn
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Floater said:
    Boris can hold one up in the House, McDonnell Little Red Book stylee.....
  • Swinson and Soubry are doing both the country and Corbyn himself a favour by vetoing him as caretaker PM. He's fundamentally unsuited to the role and he would be fsr better off contesting the General Election as an opposition leader to suit his style and offer. He also repells exactly the kind of ex Tory Independent MPs who are needed to evict Johnson in the first place. Expect lots of shroud waving but Swinson and Soubry are both right and in a strong negotiating position.

    Although Ken Clarke says he would back Corbyn
    Hmmmm, that's stretching it a bit. Faute de mieux perhaps.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Problem is once a “true Brexiter “ has a deal then the refusal to have a second confirmatory vote looks less bulletproof .

    If it’s good enough for Bozo it should be good enough for Leavers. I expect the deal could get passed but only with a confirmatory vote attached.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
  • Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Good isn't it. No Deal Brexit preferable to sticking a neutered Corbyn in for a few weeks, Lib Dem more worried about optics than no deal Brexit.
    TBF the actual quote is:

    “The question of whether or not we would support Corbyn in an emergency government is futile. He does not command the support of the House,” a spokesman said.

    So that doesn't actually rule out the LDs supporting Corbyn, it just says parliament as a whole won't support Corbyn, ie TIGs and ex-Cons won't jump.

    Presumably if Swinson had actually said the LDs would vote against Corbyn then they'd have quoted that.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Surely the message from those by-election results is that the Independents and Residents need a new leader?

    Aren't most independents and residents Tories in disguise anyway?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Surely enough LEXITEERS this time
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Good isn't it. No Deal Brexit preferable to sticking a neutered Corbyn in for a few weeks, Lib Dem more worried about optics than no deal Brexit.
    TBF the actual quote is:

    “The question of whether or not we would support Corbyn in an emergency government is futile. He does not command the support of the House,” a spokesman said.

    So that doesn't actually rule out the LDs supporting Corbyn, it just says parliament as a whole won't support Corbyn, ie TIGs and ex-Cons won't jump.

    Presumably if Swinson had actually said the LDs would vote against Corbyn then they'd have quoted that.
    The anti lib dems are spinning this whichever way they can you can tell by how they spin against the lib dems who they are before looking at who posted it. What they want is for them to do what has the worst outcome electorally for them. As to why they put so much effort into doing this on a political betting blog is beyond me, it won’t even shift the betting markets.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    edited September 2019

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    The LDs also need Labour . 250 of them.!
  • https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
  • OllyT said:

    Surely the message from those by-election results is that the Independents and Residents need a new leader?

    Aren't most independents and residents Tories in disguise anyway?
    Often, yes, but you cannot generalise.

    Yesterday's Tory win was definitely such a case but it is not always so. You really have to know the local circumstances. Sometimes they are very local indeed.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Surely enough LEXITEERS this time
    I think Bozos disgraceful performance on Wednesday has reduced that chance .
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Problem is once a “true Brexiter “ has a deal then the refusal to have a second confirmatory vote looks less bulletproof .

    If it’s good enough for Bozo it should be good enough for Leavers. I expect the deal could get passed but only with a confirmatory vote attached.

    Which would fly through the commons but will see Johnson sacrificed on the BP alter as I’m sure the honorable member for epping forest will confirm
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited September 2019
    OllyT said:

    Surely the message from those by-election results is that the Independents and Residents need a new leader?

    Aren't most independents and residents Tories in disguise anyway?
    Frank Field definitely is, of course :trollface:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
  • Swinson and Soubry are doing both the country and Corbyn himself a favour by vetoing him as caretaker PM. He's fundamentally unsuited to the role and he would be fsr better off contesting the General Election as an opposition leader to suit his style and offer. He also repells exactly the kind of ex Tory Independent MPs who are needed to evict Johnson in the first place. Expect lots of shroud waving but Swinson and Soubry are both right and in a strong negotiating position.

    The problem is that unless the polling actually flippens and the LibDems start leading Lab consistently enough to make the contest Johnson vs Swinson instead of Johnson vs Corbyn, they're going to be lumbered with the spectre of Corbyn as PM in any case.

    So they (and he) might be better off if he detoxifies a bit: Go to visit the queen wearing a nice suit, get photographed in No 10 with the cat, meet foreign leaders in a stable and important-looking way, speak calmly on behalf of the nation if there's a tragedy or death of a famous person etc etc.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.

    If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    OllyT said:

    Surely the message from those by-election results is that the Independents and Residents need a new leader?

    Aren't most independents and residents Tories in disguise anyway?
    Often, yes, but you cannot generalise.

    Yesterday's Tory win was definitely such a case but it is not always so. You really have to know the local circumstances. Sometimes they are very local indeed.
    Especially in the north east and west where they are not condependents.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    You can't take Turkey out of Boris.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    rcs1000 said:

    Although, bizarrely, there always seem to be a spate of two or three murders before he finally catches "whodunnit". I wish he were a bit more competent.

    Yes he is pretty leisurely - especially the old one - and it costs lives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    Are you suggesting he's stuffed?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    edited September 2019

    Swinson and Soubry are doing both the country and Corbyn himself a favour by vetoing him as caretaker PM. He's fundamentally unsuited to the role and he would be fsr better off contesting the General Election as an opposition leader to suit his style and offer. He also repells exactly the kind of ex Tory Independent MPs who are needed to evict Johnson in the first place. Expect lots of shroud waving but Swinson and Soubry are both right and in a strong negotiating position.

    The problem is that unless the polling actually flippens and the LibDems start leading Lab consistently enough to make the contest Johnson vs Swinson instead of Johnson vs Corbyn, they're going to be lumbered with the spectre of Corbyn as PM in any case.

    So they (and he) might be better off if he detoxifies a bit: Go to visit the queen wearing a nice suit, get photographed in No 10 with the cat, meet foreign leaders in a stable and important-looking way, speak calmly on behalf of the nation if there's a tragedy or death of a famous person etc etc.
    Magic Grandpa Christ-like? ("meet foreign leaders in a stable")
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.

    Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan.
    Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain.
    He hasn't got the numbers
  • ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    Are you suggesting he's stuffed?
    Stuffed, no. Gobbled maybe.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.

    If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
    Everyone is playing a game of chicken here.

    BJ - forcing the oppo parties into VoNC his government and find someone who can be temp PM
    JC - trying to get BJ to write the letter and trying to force JS into accepting him as temp PM
    JS - trying to get JC into letting someone else be temp PM

    if nobody moves then BJ is forced into choosing whether to write a letter, breaking the law or resigning the government (I'm not sure that he will)

    if either JC or JS moves then someone becomes PM.

    on the other hand

    BJ has indicated that they have some new concrete proposals for a deal and he is hoping that the EU reject them (because the ERG will still reject any deal). if he does get the outline of a deal then anything can happen.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    ydoethur said:

    Are you suggesting he's stuffed?

    I wish.

    Bone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited September 2019
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Are you suggesting he's stuffed?

    I wish.

    Bone.
    That wasn't a very good pun, really. Still, I suppose you tried to make the breast of it.

    Edited for awesome autocorrect failure.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    Are you suggesting he's stuffed?
    Plucked .... now where's my rhyming dictionary ??
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.

    If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
    If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.

    I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.

    The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.

    From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.

    I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    Are you suggesting he's stuffed?
    Plucked .... now where's my rhyming dictionary ??
    If you continue down that path you'll get a roasting. I bet you don't want fat.

    Have a good evening.
  • kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    I really don’t want to contemplate Boris Johnson’s chipolata.
  • geoffw said:


    Magic Grandpa Christ-like? ("meet foreign leaders in a stable")

    More like one of the three wise men, eccentric choice of baby gift but seems nice enough etc etc
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Jo is quite right here. Brexit will come and go, we hope. But no one in England can afford to be tainted by any association with the Marxist anti Semite Corbyn. He is political poison.

    Sturgeon is somewhat quarantined by her Scottish holyroodness. Tho I suspect even she is unwise to link with Corbz so blithely, which might explain why she is rowing back tonight.

    The Times focus group story makes utterly bleak reading for Labour. They have to dump their vile leader. They won’t.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    I don't have the paywall to read the whole article but there is this

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1177630594949361665
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    I really don’t want to contemplate Boris Johnson’s chipolata.
    To be fair, he often pulls a cracker!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    ydoethur said:

    OllyT said:

    Surely the message from those by-election results is that the Independents and Residents need a new leader?

    Aren't most independents and residents Tories in disguise anyway?
    Frank Field definitely is, of course :trollface:
    Kate Hoey is not in disguise and works assiduously for her party and her beliefs. And she occasionally visits the Labour party as well.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.

    If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
    If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.

    I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.

    The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.

    From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.

    I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
    Far from it.

    The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.

    The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.

    Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.

    Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan.
    Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain.
    He hasn't got the numbers
    Hermon is *really* anti No Deal, so she'd really struggle.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson will come back with a deal, and the Commons will vote it down I reckon.

    Used to think this - that he would unveil a last minute 'Boris Deal' - but now I don't.

    I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
    I really don’t want to contemplate Boris Johnson’s chipolata.
    It's quite good, actually: long, taut and reassuringly firm.

    Pause.

    His penis however is crap

    :smile:
  • OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems refusal to support Corbyn for a temporary PM will end up hurting them if no deal happens .

    If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .

    The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .

    Politically it would be suicide. The voters fleeing from Labour to LDs are doing so because they can't stand Corbyn. Tory to LD defectors would run a mile if there was any hint that she would support Corbyn.

    If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
    If SNP & PC & Green have said they will support Corby, then it is game over.

    I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.

    The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.

    From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.

    I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
    What utter nonsense. The LD position is clear that they do not view Corbyn as being fit to be PM - so if Labour wants power, it has a clear choice - ditch him and suggest a real Leader.

    There is no blame to be garnered by refusing to elevate the least respected opposition leader in modern political history to PM.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    JackW said:

    Far from it.

    The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.

    The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.

    Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.

    also given what she has said about both leaders it would be too much of a climbdown to back either one at this point. even after an election I can't see that changing.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.

    Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan.
    Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain.
    He hasn't got the numbers
    Hermon is *really* anti No Deal, so she'd really struggle.
    Shes less keen on supporters of Irish nationalists, she may abstain I guess
    I forgot Woodcock and Kelvin Hopkins, one each way
    Just to pass a vote of confidence he needs a miracle and positive support from a number of people that despise him. And even then its within a vote or two
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    I really don’t want to contemplate Boris Johnson’s chipolata.

    And neither - I wager - do the likes of Angela Merkel.

    But given that the Benn act will be sending him 'naked into the conference chamber' ...
  • Do we know what the timing looks like with regard to blocking No Deal?

    Is there a point at which we know the extension isn't happening unless the PM is changed (whether by some legal means or because Boris says go ahead and lock me up)?

    Or can Johnson keep his options open until it's too late for MPs to change the PM, so they have to act or not based on a guess about what he's going to do?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Incidentally, Sony and Disney have Deal. Spidey is back in the MCU. Yay!
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Do we know what the timing looks like with regard to blocking No Deal?

    Is there a point at which we know the extension isn't happening unless the PM is changed (whether by some legal means or because Boris says go ahead and lock me up)?

    Or can Johnson keep his options open until it's too late for MPs to change the PM, so they have to act or not based on a guess about what he's going to do?

    according to the benn law it is the 19th October.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    JackW said:



    Far from it.

    The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.

    The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.

    Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.

    Let's see how this plays out for the "lottery winners".

    There has been little scrutiny of Swinson so far -- let's wait and see.
  • rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1177627728050298880?s=19

    It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa

    Who needs Extension more ? Corbyn or Swinson ? After all, many people say Corbyn is a Brexiteer. Who will blink first ?
    With Soubry and the IGC a firm non, Corbyn needs more than the LDs, Plaid, SNP and Lucas even if Swinson blinks. She wont want to be tainted by association
    The SNP PC and Lucas will agree to Corbyn for a "limited period". Corbyn may have strongly hinted a Scot Ref after a reasonable period. Why shouldn't Sturgeon accept that ? Only Labour can give that offer to the SNP. Also an MP for the SNP is another anti-Tory MP. With the Lib Dems you can't be sure.
    Yes but that isn't enough support, he needs the LDs and some indies too
    Does he? Are the LDs really going to VONC a GNU left by Corbyn?
    Labour plus snp plus plaid plus Lucas = 287
    Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
    Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
    So the LDs will accept a No Deal Brexit ? I was told otherwise.

    Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan.
    Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain.
    He hasn't got the numbers
    Hermon is *really* anti No Deal, so she'd really struggle.
    Slight side issue - but wtf is O'Mara still doing in the House? The man has no honour
This discussion has been closed.