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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,796

    TGOHF2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    This really is a energetic campaign against her by Labour isn’t it ?
    TGOHF2 the sequel???
    Who would buy a ticket after enduring the original?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,796
    Danny565 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    Yes, I think she means well and isn't (intentionally) biased, but she's hopelessly out of her depth. She completely misunderstands what the role of a political journalist is supposed to be.

    The contrast between her analysis and Katya Adler's, when they put the two of them on back-to-back, is so obvious.
    She is effectively a newsreader, with Tory and Labour HQs providing the script, via their press offices.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,796
    ...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,960
    nico67 said:

    I think it’s pretty clear Labours election message will be to tie Bozo to Trump and say the NHS will be up for sale .

    Today’s SC ruling will reinforce the narrative that he can’t be trusted and is a liar.

    If Bozo can lie to the Queen , lie to MPs and lie to the public why on earth would you trust him on the NHS and any other promises he might make .

    That election message will go absolutely no where.

    Voters want what they voted for implemented and they couldn't give a **** if they have to elect a proven lier to do it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,960

    TGOHF2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    This really is a energetic campaign against her by Labour isn’t it ?
    TGOHF2 the sequel???
    Who would buy a ticket after enduring the original?
    How many "sequels" have we had to endure from you over the years? :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,234

    Good evening friends - some personal news:
    https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NuL/status/1176593835385872384

    Well done, @Tissue_Price ! And should you ever need a researcher, I hope I may advance my humble self - I am a statistician with considerable knowledge of the political milieu, security clearance (although now expired) and a fine singing voice... :)
  • Dominic Cummings?

    Nite all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,796
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    This really is a energetic campaign against her by Labour isn’t it ?
    TGOHF2 the sequel???
    Who would buy a ticket after enduring the original?
    How many "sequels" have we had to endure from you over the years? :D
    Who’s counting?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,234
    edited September 2019

    Good evening friends - some personal news:
    https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NuL/status/1176593835385872384

    My first word of advice for your new career: stop knobbing road signs. It's weird. :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,820

    Good evening friends - some personal news:
    https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NuL/status/1176593835385872384

    Congratulations, Newcastle under Lyme is 4th on the Tory target list so you have an excellent chance
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    On topic
    This is brilliant news. The coverage this will generate about Trump's crimes will be extremely valuable in bringing down the worst president in US history.
    Do I think the senate will convict? No. It's not impossible but it's pretty close. Will it make a difference? Absolutely. There's a shit-tonne of stuff that is in the public domain that the US public is not paying attention to. This is the start of all that cutting through.

    Off topic
    Congratulations Tissue_Price. Don't take it personally -- because it's about your scumbag party, not you -- when I say I hope you lose your deposit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,107
    edited September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,234
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,820
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Obama was at 42.6% approval on that chart at this stage of his presidency, a year later he was re elected with 51% to 47% for Romney
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,819
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Here you go: https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

    :p
  • Just home from Colchester, result as expected... Still Boris and now this is spirit raising.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,998
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Obama was at 42.6% approval on that chart at this stage of his presidency, a year later he was re elected with 51% to 47% for Romney
    I don't think it's meaningful to talk solely of gross approval. You need to look at net.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Trump apparently will also release the full whistleblower complaint and ig report. Dems walking into a bear trap
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,109
    Iowa City is a very nice place. Who’d have thought?
  • Jennifer Arcuri: Boris Johnson given 14 days to explain businesswoman links
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49819686
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,234
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Here you go: https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

    :p
    OK, so...

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters will be Z1% on Nov 7th 2016
    * Trump's vote on election day 2016 will be Z2%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters was 38.6% in September 27th 2015
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters was 40.9% on Nov 7th 2016
    * Trump's vote on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    It is September 2011, fourteen months before November 2012
    * Obama's popularity with registered voters is 47.2% in September 25th 2011
    * Obama's popularity with registered voters was 44.2 on Oct 30th 2012 (couldn't find one for Nov)
    * Obama's vote on election day 2016 was 51.1%

    See https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating and https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-favorable-rating

  • kle4 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Then the Sun should tell Farage back the f*ck down and back Boris! If he doesn't listen, he might prevent Brexit from ever happening.
    Brexit actually happening would be a disaster for Farage.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,372
    edited September 2019

    Foxy said:

    There was recently some discussion about employment changes in individual US states and someone (Foxy ??) wondered what the corresponding UK situation would be.

    Well after looking at more than enough ONS data these are the changes in employment and unemployment rates in the three years since the Referendum:

    North East, employment +0.2%, unemployment -2.4%
    North West, employment +2.0%, unemployment -0.8%
    Yorkshire, employment +1.5%, unemployment -1.6%
    East Mid, employment +1.0%, unemployment +0.3%
    West Mid, employment +2.9%, unemployment -2.1%
    East, employment +1.1%, unemployment -0.2%
    London, employment +1.0%, unemployment -1.4%
    South East, employment +1.4%, unemployment -0.6%
    South West, employment +3.5%, unemployment -1.9%
    Wales, employment +1.3%, unemployment -0.3%
    Scotland, employment +1.1%, unemployment -0.9%
    Norn Ire, employment +2.3%, unemployment -2.5%

    With the overall UK employment rate increasing by 1.6% and unemployment rate decreasing by 1.1%.

    Which means that the West Midlands, South West and Northern Ireland have done better than average on both employment and unemployment rates while East Midlands, East, South East, Wales and Scotland have done worse than average on both measures.

    This doesn't give any indication as to variations within each region.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/september2019

    It was me, but I was more interested in shorter term changes, perhaps quarterly, as a leading indicator of recession and where it is hitting. Inspired by this:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1175986162105815040?s=19
    The problem is that the ONS regional data is a bit erratic and I suspect that the USA will have similar problems.

    For what its worth the change in employment rate from the last quarter is:

    West Mids +0.7%
    Norn Ire +0.7%
    South West +0.6%
    East Mids +0.5%
    North East +0.4%
    South East +0.4%
    Yorkshire +0.2%
    East -0.0%
    North West -0.3%
    London -0.6%
    Wales -0.8%
    Scotland -1.0%

    Not much of a pattern I'm afraid.
    That’s not good for London, sadly.

    Presumably you will be happy about that?
    London's unemployment rate has been higher than the national average since at least 1992 and possibly many years earlier:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/ycni/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms

    Why that is would be a better question for you to ask.
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