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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:
    It is worth noting, however, that Rasmussen has a strong Republican tilt. They even forecast the Republicans would win the Congressional ballot last time around. (Actual result: D + 9)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019
    egg said:

    isam said:

    egg said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The Classical music aficianados are back slapping, only to be chin scratching when the X factor winners prove to be more popular
    The sun don’t even have a voodoo poll to back their bias up.

    And hulk v spider woman is a better headline.

    What will it take for leavers to come to their senses? What is it you really want? Boris tears throat out of young babies to ensure brexit, and here’s a poll supporting him doing it?

    There’s more to this world and country than brexit.
    Let the result stand then and get on with the other stuff
    Let it stand, but it’s still not for ever. For how long? Remain or leave now and it could be completely the other way round in 8 years as new ways explored and don’t prove better and the electorate changes.

    You leavers are becoming obsessed and consumed by brexit, but what will it really bring you? Something of more value than everything being trashed getting there?

    And what is honouring the cherished 2016 result anyway, leave with no deal, full clean break, or only with the promised easy deal, sunlit uplands, brexit dividend to spray around?

    You are lost.
    Its not Leavers going on marches to try and get the result overturned/organising second referendums etc. If it's no big deal, just accept we won.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited September 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    The main issue with Laura is not her bias.
    It’s that she’s just a bit shit.
    Probably the most ordinary, mediocre journalist ever to get that job.
    Just crap.

    That is ridiculous. She is one of the BBC's best journalists. Far better than Peston ever was.
    LOL.

    She hasn’t broken a decent story in living memory.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,241
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    88% want a general election before or just after 31st October.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/24/snap-poll-vast-majority-want-parliament-get-brexit/

    Con + Lib-Dem + SNP might be able to get us to a general election from the one line motion route?

    And.... We're bacl where we were three weeks ago. Here we go again,
    Not sure about the Lib Dems, but the SNP repeated tonight that they won't back an election until the extension is signed, sealed, delivered.
    Thought Cherry was hedging her bets a bit on Newsnight.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1176615713026428928?s=19

    Ummm once no deal is off the table why would they need a caretaker PM? #coup


    More to the point, why Mags Beckett? Harriet or Kenny Clarke would be a better option.
    Harriet presumably a non starter as going for the speaker role
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think it’s pretty clear Labours election message will be to tie Bozo to Trump and say the NHS will be up for sale .

    Today’s SC ruling will reinforce the narrative that he can’t be trusted and is a liar.

    If Bozo can lie to the Queen , lie to MPs and lie to the public why on earth would you trust him on the NHS and any other promises he might make .

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    TGOHF2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    This really is a energetic campaign against her by Labour isn’t it ?
    🤔I’m nothing to do with the Labour Party.
    Laura is just, well, a bit crap.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    TGOHF2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    This really is a energetic campaign against her by Labour isn’t it ?
    TGOHF2 the sequel???
    Who would buy a ticket after enduring the original?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Danny565 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    Yes, I think she means well and isn't (intentionally) biased, but she's hopelessly out of her depth. She completely misunderstands what the role of a political journalist is supposed to be.

    The contrast between her analysis and Katya Adler's, when they put the two of them on back-to-back, is so obvious.
    She is effectively a newsreader, with Tory and Labour HQs providing the script, via their press offices.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    ...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,241
    nico67 said:

    I think it’s pretty clear Labours election message will be to tie Bozo to Trump and say the NHS will be up for sale .

    Today’s SC ruling will reinforce the narrative that he can’t be trusted and is a liar.

    If Bozo can lie to the Queen , lie to MPs and lie to the public why on earth would you trust him on the NHS and any other promises he might make .

    That election message will go absolutely no where.

    Voters want what they voted for implemented and they couldn't give a **** if they have to elect a proven lier to do it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,241

    TGOHF2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    This really is a energetic campaign against her by Labour isn’t it ?
    TGOHF2 the sequel???
    Who would buy a ticket after enduring the original?
    How many "sequels" have we had to endure from you over the years? :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,007

    Good evening friends - some personal news:
    https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NuL/status/1176593835385872384

    Well done, @Tissue_Price ! And should you ever need a researcher, I hope I may advance my humble self - I am a statistician with considerable knowledge of the political milieu, security clearance (although now expired) and a fine singing voice... :)
  • Dominic Cummings?

    Nite all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Laura has been effectively acting as government PR on this. Unattributed quote criticising the judges and judge positive reporting on can do spirit and attitude.

    This is more shameless than Nick Robinson's post election performance in 2010
    She just parrots the government (or, less occasionally, the opposition) line.

    She is a lazy non-journalist, who couldn’t find a story in a Beatrix Potter compendium.
    This really is a energetic campaign against her by Labour isn’t it ?
    TGOHF2 the sequel???
    Who would buy a ticket after enduring the original?
    How many "sequels" have we had to endure from you over the years? :D
    Who’s counting?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,007
    edited September 2019

    Good evening friends - some personal news:
    https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NuL/status/1176593835385872384

    My first word of advice for your new career: stop knobbing road signs. It's weird. :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,678

    Good evening friends - some personal news:
    https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NuL/status/1176593835385872384

    Congratulations, Newcastle under Lyme is 4th on the Tory target list so you have an excellent chance
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    On topic
    This is brilliant news. The coverage this will generate about Trump's crimes will be extremely valuable in bringing down the worst president in US history.
    Do I think the senate will convict? No. It's not impossible but it's pretty close. Will it make a difference? Absolutely. There's a shit-tonne of stuff that is in the public domain that the US public is not paying attention to. This is the start of all that cutting through.

    Off topic
    Congratulations Tissue_Price. Don't take it personally -- because it's about your scumbag party, not you -- when I say I hope you lose your deposit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,484
    edited September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,007
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,678
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Obama was at 42.6% approval on that chart at this stage of his presidency, a year later he was re elected with 51% to 47% for Romney
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Here you go: https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

    :p
  • Just home from Colchester, result as expected... Still Boris and now this is spirit raising.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Obama was at 42.6% approval on that chart at this stage of his presidency, a year later he was re elected with 51% to 47% for Romney
    I don't think it's meaningful to talk solely of gross approval. You need to look at net.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Trump apparently will also release the full whistleblower complaint and ig report. Dems walking into a bear trap
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Iowa City is a very nice place. Who’d have thought?
  • Jennifer Arcuri: Boris Johnson given 14 days to explain businesswoman links
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49819686
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,007
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's popularity with registered voters is currently 44.3% compare to the 46.1% he obtained at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2020 will be Z%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    Trump's popularity with registered voters was Y% in September 2015
    Trump's popularity with registered voters on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    In order to estimate Z%, I need to know what Y% is.
    Here you go: https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

    :p
    OK, so...

    It is September 2019, fourteen months before November 2020
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters is 44.3% in September 2019
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters will be Z1% on Nov 7th 2016
    * Trump's vote on election day 2016 will be Z2%

    It is September 2015, fourteen months before November 2016
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters was 38.6% in September 27th 2015
    * Trump's popularity with registered voters was 40.9% on Nov 7th 2016
    * Trump's vote on election day 2016 was 46.1%

    It is September 2011, fourteen months before November 2012
    * Obama's popularity with registered voters is 47.2% in September 25th 2011
    * Obama's popularity with registered voters was 44.2 on Oct 30th 2012 (couldn't find one for Nov)
    * Obama's vote on election day 2016 was 51.1%

    See https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating and https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-favorable-rating

  • kle4 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Then the Sun should tell Farage back the f*ck down and back Boris! If he doesn't listen, he might prevent Brexit from ever happening.
    Brexit actually happening would be a disaster for Farage.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556
    edited September 2019

    Foxy said:

    There was recently some discussion about employment changes in individual US states and someone (Foxy ??) wondered what the corresponding UK situation would be.

    Well after looking at more than enough ONS data these are the changes in employment and unemployment rates in the three years since the Referendum:

    North East, employment +0.2%, unemployment -2.4%
    North West, employment +2.0%, unemployment -0.8%
    Yorkshire, employment +1.5%, unemployment -1.6%
    East Mid, employment +1.0%, unemployment +0.3%
    West Mid, employment +2.9%, unemployment -2.1%
    East, employment +1.1%, unemployment -0.2%
    London, employment +1.0%, unemployment -1.4%
    South East, employment +1.4%, unemployment -0.6%
    South West, employment +3.5%, unemployment -1.9%
    Wales, employment +1.3%, unemployment -0.3%
    Scotland, employment +1.1%, unemployment -0.9%
    Norn Ire, employment +2.3%, unemployment -2.5%

    With the overall UK employment rate increasing by 1.6% and unemployment rate decreasing by 1.1%.

    Which means that the West Midlands, South West and Northern Ireland have done better than average on both employment and unemployment rates while East Midlands, East, South East, Wales and Scotland have done worse than average on both measures.

    This doesn't give any indication as to variations within each region.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/september2019

    It was me, but I was more interested in shorter term changes, perhaps quarterly, as a leading indicator of recession and where it is hitting. Inspired by this:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1175986162105815040?s=19
    The problem is that the ONS regional data is a bit erratic and I suspect that the USA will have similar problems.

    For what its worth the change in employment rate from the last quarter is:

    West Mids +0.7%
    Norn Ire +0.7%
    South West +0.6%
    East Mids +0.5%
    North East +0.4%
    South East +0.4%
    Yorkshire +0.2%
    East -0.0%
    North West -0.3%
    London -0.6%
    Wales -0.8%
    Scotland -1.0%

    Not much of a pattern I'm afraid.
    That’s not good for London, sadly.

    Presumably you will be happy about that?
    London's unemployment rate has been higher than the national average since at least 1992 and possibly many years earlier:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/ycni/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms

    Why that is would be a better question for you to ask.
This discussion has been closed.