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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iowa’s most accurate pollster has Warren in the lead for the f

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iowa’s most accurate pollster has Warren in the lead for the first time

Those who have followed American politics for some time will be aware that Anne Selzer polls for the Des Moines register have over the decades built up a strong reputation for accuracy in polling the Iowa Caucuses. The issue here is ensuring that samples are made up of voters who will actually participate – attending a meeting in their precinct at 7pm on the stated day. The Selzer approach seem to get this most right.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,463
    dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    Nowhere near as much baggage to stick even if he does, surely?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    edited September 2019
    dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    Even better Kerry Mk 2 and he will, the Trump campaign will no doubt be cock a hoop if the Democrats pick the left liberal Massachusetts Senator Warren over the charismatic blue collar centrist Biden and I agree with OGH that Warren now looks like the Democratic nominee
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    An establishment neoconservative corporate sell-out? That was the push last time. Can't see it fitting Warren.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,463
    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    Unless Labour matches the LD revoke policy which it won't Labour will keep leaking Remainers to the LDs
  • HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    Even better Kerry Mk 2 and he will, the Trump campaign will no doubt be cock a hoop if the Democrats pick the left liberal Massachusetts Senator Warren over the charismatic blue collar centrist Biden and I agree with OGH that Warren now looks like the Democratic nominee
    Biden is too effing old
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    If this is passed, Remainers can choose whichever party is best suited in their constituency - safe in the knowledge that both will offer a People's Vote as a minimum option.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    edited September 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    An establishment neoconservative corporate sell-out? That was the push last time. Can't see it fitting Warren.
    Hillary won the popular vote but not the EC, Trump would win the popular vote against Warren in my view as well as the EC.

    If Trump is George W Bush, Hillary was Al Gore and Warren is John Kerry. Joe Kennedy III may be Obama (and achieve the presidency an assassin's bullet denied his grandfather Bobby Kennedy) but that means the Democrats have to wait 4 more years to get the White House back

    https://twitter.com/joekennedy/status/1175389273270489093?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    Even better Kerry Mk 2 and he will, the Trump campaign will no doubt be cock a hoop if the Democrats pick the left liberal Massachusetts Senator Warren over the charismatic blue collar centrist Biden and I agree with OGH that Warren now looks like the Democratic nominee
    Biden is too effing old
    Trump is in his 70s too so it does not matter so much and he could pick a young VP nominee and step down after a term
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    If this is passed, Remainers can choose whichever party is best suited in their constituency - safe in the knowledge that both will offer a People's Vote as a minimum option.
    A referendum with one of the two main parties against and the other neutral would be devastating to future prospects of EU membership. We lost when both of them were for Remain last time despite a twenty point starting advantage.

    The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,463
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    Unless Labour matches the LD revoke policy which it won't Labour will keep leaking Remainers to the LDs
    Some, but why enough to hurt? It would be absurd to cost both lab and LDs a seat when both will see us remain, do the incentive to stick with whichever is best placed to win will be strong. There will be the question of northern seats and leaver backlash, but the LDs cannot say lab are not fully onboard and clear if this passes.

    Bear in mind the LDs were not rewarded for their remain stance until the extension. With labour going full remain plenty might just return home.

    The LDs are not exactly staking a claim to be no.2 in the country just yet, single polls aside. Labours advsntagd is still there.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    If this is passed, Remainers can choose whichever party is best suited in their constituency - safe in the knowledge that both will offer a People's Vote as a minimum option.
    You do realise that if the motion fails Labour will be offering a people's vote, the motion is not about whether to have a second referendum or not. It is already agreed that Labour are offering another referendum.
  • dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    The main line of attack on Hillary was cronyism and entitlement, I don't think it works against Warren at all.
  • Gabs2 said:


    A referendum with one of the two main parties against and the other neutral would be devastating to future prospects of EU membership. We lost when both of them were for Remain last time despite a twenty point starting advantage.

    The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.

    If Remain won the referendum then Labour would be committed to membership.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Gabs2 said:

    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    If this is passed, Remainers can choose whichever party is best suited in their constituency - safe in the knowledge that both will offer a People's Vote as a minimum option.
    A referendum with one of the two main parties against and the other neutral would be devastating to future prospects of EU membership. We lost when both of them were for Remain last time despite a twenty point starting advantage.

    The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.
    One is surely not enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    Unless Labour matches the LD revoke policy which it won't Labour will keep leaking Remainers to the LDs
    Some, but why enough to hurt? It would be absurd to cost both lab and LDs a seat when both will see us remain, do the incentive to stick with whichever is best placed to win will be strong. There will be the question of northern seats and leaver backlash, but the LDs cannot say lab are not fully onboard and clear if this passes.

    Bear in mind the LDs were not rewarded for their remain stance until the extension. With labour going full remain plenty might just return home.

    The LDs are not exactly staking a claim to be no.2 in the country just yet, single polls aside. Labours advsntagd is still there.
    Labour is now neck and neck with the LDs in most polls now with the Tories ahead in all of them
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:


    A referendum with one of the two main parties against and the other neutral would be devastating to future prospects of EU membership. We lost when both of them were for Remain last time despite a twenty point starting advantage.

    The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.

    If Remain won the referendum then Labour would be committed to membership.
    Remain won't win the referendum with the Opposition Party neutral. We need the Lib Dems to replace them.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Remain won't win the referendum with the Opposition Party neutral. We need the Lib Dems to replace them.

    The voters are long past caring what the parties recommend.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    A referendum with one of the two main parties against and the other neutral would be devastating to future prospects of EU membership. We lost when both of them were for Remain last time despite a twenty point starting advantage.

    The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.

    If Remain won the referendum then Labour would be committed to membership.
    Remain won't win the referendum with the Opposition Party neutral. We need the Lib Dems to replace them.
    If Labour are the opposition party we probably won't be having a referendum anyway, the Tories are generally unenthusiastic about the idea...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    Won't it be easy for Trump to portray Warren as Hillary Mk 2?

    Even better Kerry Mk 2 and he will, the Trump campaign will no doubt be cock a hoop if the Democrats pick the left liberal Massachusetts Senator Warren over the charismatic blue collar centrist Biden and I agree with OGH that Warren now looks like the Democratic nominee
    That word "charismatic", I do not think it means what you think it does.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1175534571028455424

    I wasn't sure who KillerMike was but by the end of the speech I decided I prefer him to the person who first came to mind.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    Thomas Cook officially declared bankrupt. Biggest peacetime evacuation to take place.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49791249
  • Is there a betting market up yet for 'When will the next prorogation end?'
    Any layers for August 2020 ?
  • Thomas Cook is the story of the 21st Century. The disruptive power of the Internet, the fragility of JIT systems, Oil shocks, Terrorism, Geopolitical uncertainty, debt replacing equity as capital and extraction over long term investment. But ultimately western consumers getting too cheap goods by loading negative externalities ( in this case risk ) onto others.
  • Thomas Cook is the story of the 21st Century. The disruptive power of the Internet, the fragility of JIT systems, Oil shocks, Terrorism, Geopolitical uncertainty, debt replacing equity as capital and extraction over long term investment. But ultimately western consumers getting too cheap goods by loading negative externalities ( in this case risk ) onto others.

    Fair summary to which I would add dependency on British consumer. They are notorious for looking for the cheapest deal.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    edited September 2019

    Is there a betting market up yet for 'When will the next prorogation end?'
    Any layers for August 2020 ?

    There was a great article in the Economist this week about how the single market has worked well for goods and badly for services. This has hampered European businesses and especially service businesses. The main trouble with a large FTA with USA is geography. The UK would face the Scottish problem of being a long way from the main market place. Risk that UK businesses and institutions get subsumed by US ones. Like the NHS. We don’t have enough large goods suppliers to take advantage of deal and our service businesses too small mostly.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    A referendum with one of the two main parties against and the other neutral would be devastating to future prospects of EU membership. We lost when both of them were for Remain last time despite a twenty point starting advantage.

    The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.

    If Remain won the referendum then Labour would be committed to membership.
    Remain won't win the referendum with the Opposition Party neutral. We need the Lib Dems to replace them.
    If Labour are the opposition party we probably won't be having a referendum anyway, the Tories are generally unenthusiastic about the idea...
    The Lib Dem voters are now closer in profile to brexit party than labour or conservative in that over 90% support remain. They have no problem of leave voters. In fact they are even more united on this subject than the greens or SNP according to yougov. The Lib Dem’s are the natural party to lead remain on a second referendum
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    Labour should count themselves very lucky that their conference shenanigans are about to get kicked off the front pages by Thomas Cook.

    Best of luck to anyone affected, and while all the headlines will be about the repatriation effort (Operation Matterhorn, run by the Civil Aviation Authority, a QANGO under the Department of Transport, and funded mostly by ATOL's contingency fund), there's going to be 20,000 job losses at the travel firm.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited September 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    A referendum with one of the two main parties against and the other neutral would be devastating to future prospects of EU membership. We lost when both of them were for Remain last time despite a twenty point starting advantage.

    The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.

    If Remain won the referendum then Labour would be committed to membership.
    Remain won't win the referendum with the Opposition Party neutral. We need the Lib Dems to replace them.
    If Labour are the opposition party we probably won't be having a referendum anyway, the Tories are generally unenthusiastic about the idea...
    The Lib Dem voters are now closer in profile to brexit party than labour or conservative in that over 90% support remain. They have no problem of leave voters. In fact they are even more united on this subject than the greens or SNP according to yougov. The Lib Dem’s are the natural party to lead remain on a second referendum
    Is your last statement really proven by the previous ones?

    I'd argue the most effective campaigning in the referendum was some Tories with a little bit of Labour thrown in on behalf of the leave campaign. The Tories were very split (but in favour of Brexit) and Labour were very against Brexit (voting remain in similar numbers to Lib Dems and SNP)

    Going by the logic you seem to be using then Farage would have been the person to lead on Brexit (UKIP were something like 98% leave I think, by far the most united party on the issue) rather than those who did quite successfully.

    Personally I'd rather Corbyn stayed neutral during a 2nd ref but I imagine Labour MPs who favour remaining, SNP, PC and the Greens might have slightly different opinions on whose leading the referendum campaign.
  • Is there a betting market up yet for 'When will the next prorogation end?'
    Any layers for August 2020 ?

    There was a great article in the Economist this week about how the single market has worked well for goods and badly for services. This has hampered European businesses and especially service businesses. The main trouble with a large FTA with USA is geography. The UK would face the Scottish problem of being a long way from the main market place. Risk that UK businesses and institutions get subsumed by US ones. Like the NHS. We don’t have enough large goods suppliers to take advantage of deal and our service businesses too small mostly.
    One of the ironies of Theresa May's negotiation is she concentrated mainly on goods, where we have a deficit with Europe, and not services where we have a surplus.

    And yes, America is a long way away. Most of our trade would still be with Europe, deal or no deal, because as Dominic Raab recently discovered, Europe is just past Dover, or south of Belfast if no idiot has come along and built a wall there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    edited September 2019

    Is there a betting market up yet for 'When will the next prorogation end?'
    Any layers for August 2020 ?

    There was a great article in the Economist this week about how the single market has worked well for goods and badly for services. This has hampered European businesses and especially service businesses. The main trouble with a large FTA with USA is geography. The UK would face the Scottish problem of being a long way from the main market place. Risk that UK businesses and institutions get subsumed by US ones. Like the NHS. We don’t have enough large goods suppliers to take advantage of deal and our service businesses too small mostly.
    This was also of interest in the Economist:

    https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/08/31/parts-of-america-may-already-be-facing-recession

    In image form, those look a lot like swing states:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1175986162105815040?s=19

    A similar map of the UK would be interesting to political punters, I suspect that Leaverstan would show similar patterns.






  • Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
  • Foxy said:

    Is there a betting market up yet for 'When will the next prorogation end?'
    Any layers for August 2020 ?

    There was a great article in the Economist this week about how the single market has worked well for goods and badly for services. This has hampered European businesses and especially service businesses. The main trouble with a large FTA with USA is geography. The UK would face the Scottish problem of being a long way from the main market place. Risk that UK businesses and institutions get subsumed by US ones. Like the NHS. We don’t have enough large goods suppliers to take advantage of deal and our service businesses too small mostly.
    This was also of interest in the Economist:

    https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/08/31/parts-of-america-may-already-be-facing-recession

    In image form, those look a lot like swing states:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1175986162105815040?s=19

    A similar map of the UK would be interesting to political punters, I suspect that Leaverstan would show similar patterns.






    Scroll down in here:
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/11/19/austerity-swung-voters-to-brexit-and-now-they-are-changing-their-minds/

  • On topic, Elizabeth Warren is a general 6/4 against winning the Democratic nomination, which is plenty short enough for a race that does not even start for another five months. Those with investment portfolios might see things differently.
  • Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    In the fight to save British chickens a new hero emerges...

    https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1169928730652733440?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1169928730652733440&ref_url=https://metro.co.uk/2019/09/06/conservatives-kfc-bizarre-twitter-spat-chicken-jeremy-corbyn-10699018/

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618

    Foxy said:

    Is there a betting market up yet for 'When will the next prorogation end?'
    Any layers for August 2020 ?

    There was a great article in the Economist this week about how the single market has worked well for goods and badly for services. This has hampered European businesses and especially service businesses. The main trouble with a large FTA with USA is geography. The UK would face the Scottish problem of being a long way from the main market place. Risk that UK businesses and institutions get subsumed by US ones. Like the NHS. We don’t have enough large goods suppliers to take advantage of deal and our service businesses too small mostly.
    This was also of interest in the Economist:

    https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/08/31/parts-of-america-may-already-be-facing-recession

    In image form, those look a lot like swing states:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1175986162105815040?s=19

    A similar map of the UK would be interesting to political punters, I suspect that Leaverstan would show similar patterns.






    Scroll down in here:
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/11/19/austerity-swung-voters-to-brexit-and-now-they-are-changing-their-minds/

    That map is from 2013, it would be interesting to see a more recent one.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046
    Scott_P said:
    He could have asked his buddies who stand to gain billions from Brexit to help out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,281
    Scott_P said:
    If only they’d had an attractive blonde director....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Thomas Cook needed £150m plus the end of the internet. That £150m was a sticking plaster.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    No, Realpolitik.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Thomas Cook were looking for more than a billion from investors and needed to substantially restructure the company. £150m would have just been throwing good money after bad, and would have pushed the inevitable bankruptcy by about a week.

    Government money is better spent underwriting the repatriation effort and helping those who have lost their jobs.

    TC have been on the edge for the best part of a decade, people just aren’t booking ‘package’ holidays any more.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    £150m would have just been throwing good money after bad, and would have pushed the inevitable bankruptcy by about a week.

    Government money is better spent underwriting the repatriation effort and helping those who have lost their jobs.

    How much is the repatriation going to cost?

    £150m could have brought all existing TC passengers and crew home perhaps...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041
    One area where Britain still massively punching above its weight:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49773589
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe like large numbers of businesses post nodeal Brexit...
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,402
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    £150m would have just been throwing good money after bad, and would have pushed the inevitable bankruptcy by about a week.

    Government money is better spent underwriting the repatriation effort and helping those who have lost their jobs.

    How much is the repatriation going to cost?

    £150m could have brought all existing TC passengers and crew home perhaps...
    The estimate I heard for repatriation was £100m
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    £150m would have just been throwing good money after bad, and would have pushed the inevitable bankruptcy by about a week.

    Government money is better spent underwriting the repatriation effort and helping those who have lost their jobs.

    How much is the repatriation going to cost?

    £150m could have brought all existing TC passengers and crew home perhaps...
    The repatriation is going to cost the government very little, maybe £10m. Most of the cost will be covered by the ATOL scheme, travel insurance and credit card companies. It’ll work in a similar way to the Monarch bankruptcy from a cup of years ago. The CAA have been planning this for weeks, and there’s already planes on their way from all over the world to help with the repatriation effort.

    If you bought a flight only, took no insurance and paid with a debit card then lucky you, HMG have decided you’re less of a problem to put on a plane than leave you stranded abroad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    £150m would have just been throwing good money after bad, and would have pushed the inevitable bankruptcy by about a week.

    Government money is better spent underwriting the repatriation effort and helping those who have lost their jobs.

    How much is the repatriation going to cost?

    £150m could have brought all existing TC passengers and crew home perhaps...
    The repatriation is going to cost the government very little, maybe £10m. Most of the cost will be covered by the ATOL scheme, travel insurance and credit card companies. It’ll work in a similar way to the Monarch bankruptcy from a cup of years ago. The CAA have been planning this for weeks, and there’s already planes on their way from all over the world to help with the repatriation effort.

    If you bought a flight only, took no insurance and paid with a debit card then lucky you, HMG have decided you’re less of a problem to put on a plane than leave you stranded abroad.
    +1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    edited September 2019

    One area where Britain still massively punching above its weight:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49773589

    Lefties, lovies and movies?
  • Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
    https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    For those affected or interested, the Thomas Cook emergency website is at https://thomascook.caa.co.uk/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041
    Sandpit said:

    For those affected or interested, the Thomas Cook emergency website is at https://thomascook.caa.co.uk/

    I suppose the problem arises for those who have organised a wedding on say Friday - but there's a Govt. organised plane back home on Wednesday. No doubt some in the media will be looking for a "Boris wrecked my wedding" story. But its wider impact will probably be like Woolies going under - "oh - what a shame..." - without it affecting our ability to go abroad on holiday one little bit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited September 2019
    The problem with showing indecisive leadership on Brexit is that it'll hamper him getting a hearing on other things. He'll get bogged down in endless interviews. A pity because several of Labour's policies look genuinely interesting and radical and with Johnson crawling deeper and deeper into Trumps backside they deserve a hearing
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
    https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
    Every negotiator has a wish list. I'm sure we have one too. Guess what? Both sides will be somewhat disappointed at what they finally achieve....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited September 2019

    One area where Britain still massively punching above its weight:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49773589

    All credit to the BBC. It serves this country in many ways and is very seldon given the credit it deserves particularly by the right wing philistines who given half the chance woud emasculate it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
    https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
    Every negotiator has a wish list. I'm sure we have one too. Guess what? Both sides will be somewhat disappointed at what they finally achieve....
    David Henig did an interesting thread on this earlier in the year:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1101479254326415360?s=19

  • Good morning, everyone.

    F1: won't check the markets for a little but hard to imagine anyone but Ferrari being favourites for Russia.

    Lower down, McLaren were pretty good too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,854
    I would have loved to be a fly on the wall at the meeting to chereograph the Labour conference.

    'OK, comrades, now the important thing is to screw up epically right from the start. So let's have a blazing row over the deputy leader's position, try to abolish it and look like utter dingbats.'

    'Sounds good comrade. And then of course the Dear Leader can go on about his Brexit policy.'

    'He doesn't have one, does he?'

    'No, but if he says he does and waffles a bit, people will believe him.'

    'Good plan, good plan. Then he can send Dawn Butler on the radio and have her shout and scream and generally behave like an unhinged obsesssive. That's going to get us lots of votes in the marginals.'

    'Yes, and the perfect backdrop for Andrew Fisher to quit because we've become too extreme. Then we can do all that rubbish about private schools.'

    'Yeah, good stuff, wish they'd close mine. Have you got that bit where Macdonnell says our plans are illegal in?'

    'Noted. Now on the final day. How about putting forward lots of motions on leaving the EU and losing them all?'

    'Great. Showing we're on the side of the masses.'

    'Awesome! Let's go get those Tory bastards in the Labour Party!'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    Roger said:

    One area where Britain still massively punching above its weight:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49773589

    All credit to the BBC. It serves this country in many ways and is very seldon given the credit it deserves particularly by the right wing philistines who given half the chance woud emasculate it
    Quite right, the BBC is a cornerstone of our cultural industries. Like all creative arts it can be a bit hit and miss, but vital.

    It is part of how the UK will afford to repatriate the stranded holidaymakers of Hartlepool.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    ydoethur said:

    I would have loved to be a fly on the wall at the meeting to chereograph the Labour conference.

    'OK, comrades, now the important thing is to screw up epically right from the start. So let's have a blazing row over the deputy leader's position, try to abolish it and look like utter dingbats.'

    'Sounds good comrade. And then of course the Dear Leader can go on about his Brexit policy.'

    'He doesn't have one, does he?'

    'No, but if he says he does and waffles a bit, people will believe him.'

    'Good plan, good plan. Then he can send Dawn Butler on the radio and have her shout and scream and generally behave like an unhinged obsesssive. That's going to get us lots of votes in the marginals.'

    'Yes, and the perfect backdrop for Andrew Fisher to quit because we've become too extreme. Then we can do all that rubbish about private schools.'

    'Yeah, good stuff, wish they'd close mine. Have you got that bit where Macdonnell says our plans are illegal in?'

    'Noted. Now on the final day. How about putting forward lots of motions on leaving the EU and losing them all?'

    'Great. Showing we're on the side of the masses.'

    'Awesome! Let's go get those Tory bastards in the Labour Party!'

    "What Do We Want?"

    "Maybe Brexit Maybe Revoke"

    "When Do We Want It?"

    "Now!"



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    edited September 2019

    Sandpit said:

    For those affected or interested, the Thomas Cook emergency website is at https://thomascook.caa.co.uk/

    I suppose the problem arises for those who have organised a wedding on say Friday - but there's a Govt. organised plane back home on Wednesday. No doubt some in the media will be looking for a "Boris wrecked my wedding" story. But its wider impact will probably be like Woolies going under - "oh - what a shame..." - without it affecting our ability to go abroad on holiday one little bit.
    The plan is to fly people back as close to their original travel date as possible, as it minimises the number of planes required. There will probably be the odd day or two difference though.

    Hopefully people who were travelling for a wedding abroad will have bought good insurance, and despite the media looking for a story I’m not sure there will be much public sympathy for anyone who hasn’t.

    I think the biggest potential issue is with hoteliers abroad, there’s unconfirmed reports of people not being allowed to leave resorts due to unpaid bills, so there will be an amount of diplomacy needed there. Most will have been paid already for the guests currently in house, but are realising that next week’s guests aren’t going to arrive and are out for whatever they can get in the situation.

    Once the initial panic is over and everyone is back home, the wider issue for government will be dealing with the redundancies in Peterborough, Manchester and elsewhere in the supply chain. But again, there’s good contingency plans in place at DWP for events like this, as much as we all hate the DWP it is one thing they’re good at. As one business folds, it’s also likely that others will expand to fill in the demand, people are still going to go on holiday next year after all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041
    Scott_P said:
    I hope all those MPs who have dicked around wasting the 7 month extension time will be apologising to those left stranded? Maybe from the Labour Conference podium perhaps? No?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I hope all those MPs who have dicked around wasting the 7 month extension time will be apologising to those left stranded?

    BoZo up first?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
    https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
    Every negotiator has a wish list. I'm sure we have one too. Guess what? Both sides will be somewhat disappointed at what they finally achieve....
    By coincidence the UK Govt has already published its wishlist.

    1) Sign a trade agreement with the USA.

    Don't really see why either side need be disappointed.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Whilst Brexit is but one cause, BoZo’s No Deal willy-waving with its ensuing impact on the exchange rates can’t have helped.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    alex. said:

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
    https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
    Every negotiator has a wish list. I'm sure we have one too. Guess what? Both sides will be somewhat disappointed at what they finally achieve....
    By coincidence the UK Govt has already published its wishlist.

    1) Sign a trade agreement with the USA.

    Don't really see why either side need be disappointed.
    It's important to keep No Deal on the table.

    Apparently...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    I would have loved to be a fly on the wall at the meeting to chereograph the Labour conference.

    'OK, comrades, now the important thing is to screw up epically right from the start. So let's have a blazing row over the deputy leader's position, try to abolish it and look like utter dingbats.'

    'Sounds good comrade. And then of course the Dear Leader can go on about his Brexit policy.'

    'He doesn't have one, does he?'

    'No, but if he says he does and waffles a bit, people will believe him.'

    'Good plan, good plan. Then he can send Dawn Butler on the radio and have her shout and scream and generally behave like an unhinged obsesssive. That's going to get us lots of votes in the marginals.'

    'Yes, and the perfect backdrop for Andrew Fisher to quit because we've become too extreme. Then we can do all that rubbish about private schools.'

    'Yeah, good stuff, wish they'd close mine. Have you got that bit where Macdonnell says our plans are illegal in?'

    'Noted. Now on the final day. How about putting forward lots of motions on leaving the EU and losing them all?'

    'Great. Showing we're on the side of the masses.'

    'Awesome! Let's go get those Tory bastards in the Labour Party!'

    "What Do We Want?"

    "Maybe Brexit Maybe Revoke"

    "When Do We Want It?"

    "Now!"



    "Actually....Now! doesn't really work for me. I'm in a seat that voted Leave. Can I kick it down the road a bit more?"
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    alex. said:

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
    https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
    Every negotiator has a wish list. I'm sure we have one too. Guess what? Both sides will be somewhat disappointed at what they finally achieve....
    By coincidence the UK Govt has already published its wishlist.

    1) Sign a trade agreement with the USA.

    Don't really see why either side need be disappointed.
    1 piece of paper in return for the NHS (for it will be caught by pieces in it regardless of what Boris claims) and our farming industry. I wonder what else will be lost in Boris's rush for that agreement so that he doesn't look utterly incompetent immediately.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041
    Scott_P said:

    I hope all those MPs who have dicked around wasting the 7 month extension time will be apologising to those left stranded?

    BoZo up first?
    Probably not from the Labour conference podium, no....
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487
    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Most locals would not say that Washington is in Tyne and Wear where the council was abolished in 1986, after a life of less than 12 years.

    Irrespective of bureaucrats, it is Washington CD: County Durham.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    When would be a good time to mention that Condor (Thomas Cook's German airline) is operating as usual....
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Most locals would not say that Washington is in Tyne and Wear where the council was abolished in 1986, after a life of less than 12 years.

    Irrespective of bureaucrats, it is Washington CD: County Durham.
    Washington is in Sunderland...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,854
    edited September 2019
    This is where Labour have got to:
    http://www.twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1175354362346033157
    Has Jo Swinson struck a deal with Satan or something? Because if so she's still swindled him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    For those affected or interested, the Thomas Cook emergency website is at https://thomascook.caa.co.uk/

    I suppose the problem arises for those who have organised a wedding on say Friday - but there's a Govt. organised plane back home on Wednesday. No doubt some in the media will be looking for a "Boris wrecked my wedding" story. But its wider impact will probably be like Woolies going under - "oh - what a shame..." - without it affecting our ability to go abroad on holiday one little bit.
    The plan is to fly people back as close to their original travel date as possible, as it minimises the number of planes required. There will probably be the odd day or two difference though.

    Hopefully people who were travelling for a wedding abroad will have bought good insurance, and despite the media looking for a story I’m not sure there will be much public sympathy for anyone who hasn’t.

    I think the biggest potential issue is with hoteliers abroad, there’s unconfirmed reports of people not being allowed to leave resorts due to unpaid bills, so there will be an amount of diplomacy needed there. Most will have been paid already for the guests currently in house, but are realising that next week’s guests aren’t going to arrive and are out for whatever they can get in the situation.

    Once the initial panic is over and everyone is back home, the wider issue for government will be dealing with the redundancies in Peterborough, Manchester and elsewhere in the supply chain. But again, there’s good contingency plans in place at DWP for events like this, as much as we all hate the DWP it is one thing they’re good at. As one business folds, it’s also likely that others will expand to fill in the demand, people are still going to go on holiday next year after all.
    I looked up my 'possible' flight, had my wife, a couple of months ago, been able to do what we wanted to do. Coming back today we'd have come back some four hours later than planned. The only person really 'disturbed' would have been the person...... probably a taxi driver...... scheduled to pick us up from Stansted.
    There are no details of arrangements for tomorrow, and until 6th October, yet, though, which may well be of concern to those 'out there'.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    One area where Britain still massively punching above its weight:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49773589

    All credit to the BBC. It serves this country in many ways and is very seldon given the credit it deserves particularly by the right wing philistines who given half the chance woud emasculate it
    Quite right, the BBC is a cornerstone of our cultural industries. Like all creative arts it can be a bit hit and miss, but vital.

    It is part of how the UK will afford to repatriate the stranded holidaymakers of Hartlepool.
    You can't lay that one on them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,281

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    You can do that when you hold all the cards....
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426
    It always depresses me when an Airline or Holiday Company suddenly goes under. Tens of thousands of people have paid a significant chunk of their year's income on a holiday and have been looking forward to it. Then the holiday turns out to be a nightmare or aren't even able to go on holiday.

    Very sad.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Scott_P said:
    Do you do any fact checking on tweets you publish?

    Not only does conference get to decide but in most stages there are people who are elected to positions involved in the drafting and choosing outside of the membership picked leader.

    You know the way the Sun is very unreliable on the EU, has it occurred to you that this might spread to other things they report on?


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    I would have loved to be a fly on the wall at the meeting to chereograph the Labour conference.

    'OK, comrades, now the important thing is to screw up epically right from the start. So let's have a blazing row over the deputy leader's position, try to abolish it and look like utter dingbats.'

    'Sounds good comrade. And then of course the Dear Leader can go on about his Brexit policy.'

    'He doesn't have one, does he?'

    'No, but if he says he does and waffles a bit, people will believe him.'

    'Good plan, good plan. Then he can send Dawn Butler on the radio and have her shout and scream and generally behave like an unhinged obsesssive. That's going to get us lots of votes in the marginals.'

    'Yes, and the perfect backdrop for Andrew Fisher to quit because we've become too extreme. Then we can do all that rubbish about private schools.'

    'Yeah, good stuff, wish they'd close mine. Have you got that bit where Macdonnell says our plans are illegal in?'

    'Noted. Now on the final day. How about putting forward lots of motions on leaving the EU and losing them all?'

    'Great. Showing we're on the side of the masses.'

    'Awesome! Let's go get those Tory bastards in the Labour Party!'

    "What Do We Want?"

    "Maybe Brexit Maybe Revoke"

    "When Do We Want It?"

    "Now!"



    To be fair to Corbyn his 'plan' isn't too dissimilar to Wilson's and that worked out very well.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    For those affected or interested, the Thomas Cook emergency website is at https://thomascook.caa.co.uk/

    I suppose the problem arises for those who have organised a wedding on say Friday - but there's a Govt. organised plane back home on Wednesday. No doubt some in the media will be looking for a "Boris wrecked my wedding" story. But its wider impact will probably be like Woolies going under - "oh - what a shame..." - without it affecting our ability to go abroad on holiday one little bit.
    As one business folds, it’s also likely that others will expand to fill in the demand, people are still going to go on holiday next year after all.
    No repatriation needed from the Isle of Wight, nor travel insurance covering existing conditions. Carbon friendly too. Staycations are the future.
  • eek said:

    When would be a good time to mention that Condor (Thomas Cook's German airline) is operating as usual....

    Today is a great day for German sunbathers. Less competition for those sun loungers...
  • Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    You do realise the American government has ignored the negotiation advice from assorted pb experts and openly published what it wants from a deal.
    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

    That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
    https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
    Every negotiator has a wish list. I'm sure we have one too. Guess what? Both sides will be somewhat disappointed at what they finally achieve....
    American negotiations with the EU and Japan took years and were not settled. If Boris has agreed a deal that can be signed in July, it will be on American terms. Remember that many Brexiteer headbangers want this in order to lock us out permanently from the EU.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    If this is passed, Remainers can choose whichever party is best suited in their constituency - safe in the knowledge that both will offer a People's Vote as a minimum option.
    You do realise that if the motion fails Labour will be offering a people's vote, the motion is not about whether to have a second referendum or not. It is already agreed that Labour are offering another referendum.
    I won’t be voting in a referendum which is Jezza or Jo’s crap deal vs Remain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,854
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    For those affected or interested, the Thomas Cook emergency website is at https://thomascook.caa.co.uk/

    I suppose the problem arises for those who have organised a wedding on say Friday - but there's a Govt. organised plane back home on Wednesday. No doubt some in the media will be looking for a "Boris wrecked my wedding" story. But its wider impact will probably be like Woolies going under - "oh - what a shame..." - without it affecting our ability to go abroad on holiday one little bit.
    As one business folds, it’s also likely that others will expand to fill in the demand, people are still going to go on holiday next year after all.
    No repatriation needed from the Isle of Wight, nor travel insurance covering existing conditions. Carbon friendly too. Staycations are the future.
    Carbon friendly? I'd remind you of the old joke:

    What's black, steams a lot and comes out of cowes backwards?

    The Isle of Wight ferry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,281

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: won't check the markets for a little but hard to imagine anyone but Ferrari being favourites for Russia....

    Hope so - should then provide some decent betting opportunities.
  • Mr. JohnL, are those who want us to be permanent EU members headbangers too?

    On the possible US trade deal: almost anything that Boris Johnson signs will be rubbish. The man's incompetent and driven solely by his own childish ego. This is not a secret.

    He's a bloody fool. So's the Leader of the Opposition. And the Lib Dem leader has decided to adopt a crazy policy as well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,281

    Foxy said:

    Labour, SNP and LibDem spin teams will be looking to tear that apart. Less taking back control and more handing it straight over to Washington (DC, not Tyne and Wear). Taking American rules, submitting to secret American courts, goodbye NHS and hello chlorinated chicken.
    A rushed deal is almost certainly a bad deal, though Trump may be looking for a way out of his trade wars.
    Trump will be looking to give American farmers, hurt by the China trade war, unfettered access to Britain. Goodbye standards; goodbye British agriculture.
    Hello Project Fear. Again.
    And again.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/23/uk-regions-most-at-risk-no-deal-brexit-also-most-deprived-warns-study
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    I know some will say that the LD revoke position is sufficiently stronger that this wont help labour, but I think it will. The LDs are really pushing the idea the labour position is confused or mixed. If it is not, and given in reality both will back a referendum, it surely keeps people emotionally attached to the labour brand as millions are from straying.
    If this is passed, Remainers can choose whichever party is best suited in their constituency - safe in the knowledge that both will offer a People's Vote as a minimum option.
    You do realise that if the motion fails Labour will be offering a people's vote, the motion is not about whether to have a second referendum or not. It is already agreed that Labour are offering another referendum.
    I won’t be voting in a referendum which is Jezza or Jo’s crap deal vs Remain.
    I probably disagree with just about everything politics related you have ever posted, governments pleasing everyone is an impossible task, a Conservative government won't please me or at least not without displeasing its voters and a Labour government isn't going to please you.

    That is our problem if our opponents win, not theirs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,281

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    I would have loved to be a fly on the wall at the meeting to chereograph the Labour conference.

    'OK, comrades, now the important thing is to screw up epically right from the start. So let's have a blazing row over the deputy leader's position, try to abolish it and look like utter dingbats.'

    'Sounds good comrade. And then of course the Dear Leader can go on about his Brexit policy.'

    'He doesn't have one, does he?'

    'No, but if he says he does and waffles a bit, people will believe him.'

    'Good plan, good plan. Then he can send Dawn Butler on the radio and have her shout and scream and generally behave like an unhinged obsesssive. That's going to get us lots of votes in the marginals.'

    'Yes, and the perfect backdrop for Andrew Fisher to quit because we've become too extreme. Then we can do all that rubbish about private schools.'

    'Yeah, good stuff, wish they'd close mine. Have you got that bit where Macdonnell says our plans are illegal in?'

    'Noted. Now on the final day. How about putting forward lots of motions on leaving the EU and losing them all?'

    'Great. Showing we're on the side of the masses.'

    'Awesome! Let's go get those Tory bastards in the Labour Party!'

    "What Do We Want?"

    "Maybe Brexit Maybe Revoke"

    "When Do We Want It?"

    "Now!"



    To be fair to Corbyn his 'plan' isn't too dissimilar to Wilson's and that worked out very well.
    Wilson was in government.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited September 2019

    Mr. JohnL, are those who want us to be permanent EU members headbangers too?

    No but the ones who want us to join the Euro immediately might be (although in the Thatcher era, there was also the argument from the monetarist headbangers that we should lock in an artificially high rate).
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    ydoethur said:

    This is where Labour have got to:
    http://www.twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1175354362346033157
    Has Jo Swinson struck a deal with Satan or something? Because if so she's still swindled him.

    I think Nick Clegg (and maybe Danny Alexander) were the ones who actually struck the deal.
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