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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iowa’s most accurate pollster has Warren in the lead for the first time
Those who have followed American politics for some time will be aware that Anne Selzer polls for the Des Moines register have over the decades built up a strong reputation for accuracy in polling the Iowa Caucuses. The issue here is ensuring that samples are made up of voters who will actually participate – attending a meeting in their precinct at 7pm on the stated day. The Selzer approach seem to get this most right.
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If Trump is George W Bush, Hillary was Al Gore and Warren is John Kerry. Joe Kennedy III may be Obama (and achieve the presidency an assassin's bullet denied his grandfather Bobby Kennedy) but that means the Democrats have to wait 4 more years to get the White House back
https://twitter.com/joekennedy/status/1175389273270489093?s=20
The only way we will have a sustainable place in the EU is with at least one main party commited to membership.
Bear in mind the LDs were not rewarded for their remain stance until the extension. With labour going full remain plenty might just return home.
The LDs are not exactly staking a claim to be no.2 in the country just yet, single polls aside. Labours advsntagd is still there.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1175934771614142464?s=21
I wasn't sure who KillerMike was but by the end of the speech I decided I prefer him to the person who first came to mind.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49791249
Any layers for August 2020 ?
There was a great article in the Economist this week about how the single market has worked well for goods and badly for services. This has hampered European businesses and especially service businesses. The main trouble with a large FTA with USA is geography. The UK would face the Scottish problem of being a long way from the main market place. Risk that UK businesses and institutions get subsumed by US ones. Like the NHS. We don’t have enough large goods suppliers to take advantage of deal and our service businesses too small mostly.
Best of luck to anyone affected, and while all the headlines will be about the repatriation effort (Operation Matterhorn, run by the Civil Aviation Authority, a QANGO under the Department of Transport, and funded mostly by ATOL's contingency fund), there's going to be 20,000 job losses at the travel firm.
I'd argue the most effective campaigning in the referendum was some Tories with a little bit of Labour thrown in on behalf of the leave campaign. The Tories were very split (but in favour of Brexit) and Labour were very against Brexit (voting remain in similar numbers to Lib Dems and SNP)
Going by the logic you seem to be using then Farage would have been the person to lead on Brexit (UKIP were something like 98% leave I think, by far the most united party on the issue) rather than those who did quite successfully.
Personally I'd rather Corbyn stayed neutral during a 2nd ref but I imagine Labour MPs who favour remaining, SNP, PC and the Greens might have slightly different opinions on whose leading the referendum campaign.
And yes, America is a long way away. Most of our trade would still be with Europe, deal or no deal, because as Dominic Raab recently discovered, Europe is just past Dover, or south of Belfast if no idiot has come along and built a wall there.
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/08/31/parts-of-america-may-already-be-facing-recession
In image form, those look a lot like swing states:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1175986162105815040?s=19
A similar map of the UK would be interesting to political punters, I suspect that Leaverstan would show similar patterns.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/11/19/austerity-swung-voters-to-brexit-and-now-they-are-changing-their-minds/
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1169928730652733440?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1169928730652733440&ref_url=https://metro.co.uk/2019/09/06/conservatives-kfc-bizarre-twitter-spat-chicken-jeremy-corbyn-10699018/
Government money is better spent underwriting the repatriation effort and helping those who have lost their jobs.
TC have been on the edge for the best part of a decade, people just aren’t booking ‘package’ holidays any more.
£150m could have brought all existing TC passengers and crew home perhaps...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49773589
If you bought a flight only, took no insurance and paid with a debit card then lucky you, HMG have decided you’re less of a problem to put on a plane than leave you stranded abroad.
https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf
That is down at the moment but here is a commentary:
https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/05/the-us-negotiating-objectives-for-the-uk-us-trade-deal-clearly-put-america-first/
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1101479254326415360?s=19
F1: won't check the markets for a little but hard to imagine anyone but Ferrari being favourites for Russia.
Lower down, McLaren were pretty good too.
'OK, comrades, now the important thing is to screw up epically right from the start. So let's have a blazing row over the deputy leader's position, try to abolish it and look like utter dingbats.'
'Sounds good comrade. And then of course the Dear Leader can go on about his Brexit policy.'
'He doesn't have one, does he?'
'No, but if he says he does and waffles a bit, people will believe him.'
'Good plan, good plan. Then he can send Dawn Butler on the radio and have her shout and scream and generally behave like an unhinged obsesssive. That's going to get us lots of votes in the marginals.'
'Yes, and the perfect backdrop for Andrew Fisher to quit because we've become too extreme. Then we can do all that rubbish about private schools.'
'Yeah, good stuff, wish they'd close mine. Have you got that bit where Macdonnell says our plans are illegal in?'
'Noted. Now on the final day. How about putting forward lots of motions on leaving the EU and losing them all?'
'Great. Showing we're on the side of the masses.'
'Awesome! Let's go get those Tory bastards in the Labour Party!'
It is part of how the UK will afford to repatriate the stranded holidaymakers of Hartlepool.
"Maybe Brexit Maybe Revoke"
"When Do We Want It?"
"Now!"
Hopefully people who were travelling for a wedding abroad will have bought good insurance, and despite the media looking for a story I’m not sure there will be much public sympathy for anyone who hasn’t.
I think the biggest potential issue is with hoteliers abroad, there’s unconfirmed reports of people not being allowed to leave resorts due to unpaid bills, so there will be an amount of diplomacy needed there. Most will have been paid already for the guests currently in house, but are realising that next week’s guests aren’t going to arrive and are out for whatever they can get in the situation.
Once the initial panic is over and everyone is back home, the wider issue for government will be dealing with the redundancies in Peterborough, Manchester and elsewhere in the supply chain. But again, there’s good contingency plans in place at DWP for events like this, as much as we all hate the DWP it is one thing they’re good at. As one business folds, it’s also likely that others will expand to fill in the demand, people are still going to go on holiday next year after all.
1) Sign a trade agreement with the USA.
Don't really see why either side need be disappointed.
Apparently...
Irrespective of bureaucrats, it is Washington CD: County Durham.
http://www.twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1175354362346033157
Has Jo Swinson struck a deal with Satan or something? Because if so she's still swindled him.
There are no details of arrangements for tomorrow, and until 6th October, yet, though, which may well be of concern to those 'out there'.
Very sad.
Not only does conference get to decide but in most stages there are people who are elected to positions involved in the drafting and choosing outside of the membership picked leader.
You know the way the Sun is very unreliable on the EU, has it occurred to you that this might spread to other things they report on?
What's black, steams a lot and comes out of cowes backwards?
The Isle of Wight ferry.
On the possible US trade deal: almost anything that Boris Johnson signs will be rubbish. The man's incompetent and driven solely by his own childish ego. This is not a secret.
He's a bloody fool. So's the Leader of the Opposition. And the Lib Dem leader has decided to adopt a crazy policy as well.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/23/uk-regions-most-at-risk-no-deal-brexit-also-most-deprived-warns-study
That is our problem if our opponents win, not theirs.