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  • One thing Farage has got spot on is setting up his new party in a completely undemocratic fashion. Party democracy as practised in the main parties has been hugely damaging for the country.
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    “The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”

    Electoral Calculus gives a Tory landslide and a Tory majority of 104 with this evening's Opinium.

    Tories 377
    Labour 184
    LDs 32

    Biggest Tory win since Thatcher for Boris if true

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=35&LAB=25&LIB=17&Brexit=14&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

    Tory gains in Scotland at the SNP’s expense again!!!

    Even if the Tories lost all 13 Scottish seats to the SNP they would still have a majority of 78 with Opinium according to Electoral Calculus
    You need to see a doctor
    I do fear for him - stress can do strange things to rational people
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited September 2019

    You just know that Labour will spend more time in the coming election campaign attacking the Lib Dems than the Tories.

    The LDs are more of a threat long term to Corbyn Labour than the Tories as the Brexit Party were more of a threat long term to the Tories than Corbyn Labour
  • England need 383 to win
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    “The Conservatives are up 3 points to 35% of the vote, while the Brexit party is down 3 points to 13%. The Liberal Democrats are up 2 points to 17% while Labour is down 1 point to 25%.”

    Electoral Calculus gives a Tory landslide and a Tory majority of 104 with this evening's Opinium.

    Tories 377
    Labour 184
    LDs 32

    Biggest Tory win since Thatcher for Boris if true

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=35&LAB=25&LIB=17&Brexit=14&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

    Tory gains in Scotland at the SNP’s expense again!!!

    Even if the Tories lost all 13 Scottish seats to the SNP they would still have a majority of 78 with Opinium according to Electoral Calculus

    A model showing Tory gains in Scotland at the SNP’s expense is not reliable. Clearly, a 10 point lead is enough for the Tories to win, but by how much is pure guesswork.

  • Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?

    There’s bound to be a YouGov.

    And a Deltapoll

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383503055347712?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Byronic said:

    Dadge said:

    Byronic said:

    IANAL but it looks to me like the Rebel Alliance have committed treason felony, according to the Act of 1848, which makes it a crime to “wage war against the sovereign” - by word, deed or act - “in order to put any force or constraint upon or in order to intimidate or overawe both Houses or either House of Parliament.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_Felony_Act_1848

    If we’re going to lock up the Prime Minister on the basis of a strange new law thrown together last week, then we definitely need to jail the Rebel Alliance on the basis of a fundamental law, which has been in force since the mid 19th century.

    Surely you realise that if you write posts like this, then everyone can see you're a nutter?
    You are free to call me a nutter, of course, but you’re not free to dispute the wording of the Treason Felony Act of 1848. Which, prima facie, has the ‘Rebel Alliance’ bang to rights.
    Neither are you free to disregard its subsequent interpretation.
    Nutter. :smile:
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nichomar said:

    Sound of music tonight

    Who do you think . A surprise say from one of the 21 Tory rebels or something a bit more predictable .
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    The thing with the polls is you have to remember the poll shifts lag the events, not the other way round.

    I'll try again since my computer threw a wobbly.

    The Tory vote share held up remarkably well right up until the original extension in March and only then did it drop off a cliff. It's been rebounding since Boris was appointed and was making lots of "can do" comments and speeches.

    If he does have to end up asking for an extension because Parliament makes him, I wouldn't be surprised to see the polling repeating that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    RobD said:

    Dadge said:

    AndyJS said:

    10% Tory lead in Opinium

    Do we have the figures?
    Con 35%
    Lab 25%
    LDem 17%
    Brexit 13%
    Very easy to see 5% being squeezed from BXP to CON to get to 40% I'm predicting by end of October.
    I think we're at Peak Boris. By the end of October 5% of Tories will have switched (back) to Farage.
    Weren't we supposed to be at peak boris a few weeks ago? :)
    I'm calling peak Boris - at 10.01 pm when the exit poll gets announced....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    IANAL but it looks to me like the Rebel Alliance have committed treason felony, according to the Act of 1848, which makes it a crime to “wage war against the sovereign” - by word, deed or act - “in order to put any force or constraint upon or in order to intimidate or overawe both Houses or either House of Parliament.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_Felony_Act_1848

    If we’re going to lock up the Prime Minister on the basis of a strange new law thrown together last week, then we definitely need to jail the Rebel Alliance on the basis of a fundamental law, which has been in force since the mid 19th century.

    Have you been giving legal advice to Dom? Apparently he's found out that Boris won't have to ask for an extension after all, so perhaps incarcerating the Rebel Alliance for treason is part of it.
  • Given the number of Conservative MPs leaving/dismissed, is there a chance of TIG getting bigger again given I doubt the LDs would be willing to give them all candidacies both as it would upset present candidates and branches and laying themselves open to calls from Labour of being “mini-me tories” again?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    Sound of music tonight

    Who do you think . A surprise say from one of the 21 Tory rebels or something a bit more predictable .
    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    Sound of music tonight

    Who do you think . A surprise say from one of the 21 Tory rebels or something a bit more predictable .
    Angela smith then Heidi Allen then one or more of the 21
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nichomar said:

    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    Sound of music tonight

    Who do you think . A surprise say from one of the 21 Tory rebels or something a bit more predictable .
    nico67 said:

    nichomar said:

    Sound of music tonight

    Who do you think . A surprise say from one of the 21 Tory rebels or something a bit more predictable .
    Angela smith then Heidi Allen then one or more of the 21
    Not a bad suggestion . Heidi Allen at the conference would get some good media attention . I think she’d have a good chance of holding her seat .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354

    Given the number of Conservative MPs leaving/dismissed, is there a chance of TIG getting bigger again given I doubt the LDs would be willing to give them all candidacies both as it would upset present candidates and branches and laying themselves open to calls from Labour of being “mini-me tories” again?

    The voting records of some of those newly-LibDem Tories are going to be a gift to Labour......
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?

    There’s bound to be a YouGov.

    And a Deltapoll

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383503055347712?s=20
    Wonder if it'll be a regular poll or a KABOOOOOOOM poll? :D
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    Byronic said:

    IANAL but it looks to me like the Rebel Alliance have committed treason felony, according to the Act of 1848, which makes it a crime to “wage war against the sovereign” - by word, deed or act - “in order to put any force or constraint upon or in order to intimidate or overawe both Houses or either House of Parliament.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_Felony_Act_1848

    If we’re going to lock up the Prime Minister on the basis of a strange new law thrown together last week, then we definitely need to jail the Rebel Alliance on the basis of a fundamental law, which has been in force since the mid 19th century.

    Have you been giving legal advice to Dom? Apparently he's found out that Boris won't have to ask for an extension after all, so perhaps incarcerating the Rebel Alliance for treason is part of it.
    It's hard to imagine now, but it wasn't all that long ago we were looking with amusement and incredulity at the chants of "lock her up!" heard across the pond.

    That sort of thing could never happen here, we said. We do politics differently, we said. Well, here we are.
  • Given the number of Conservative MPs leaving/dismissed, is there a chance of TIG getting bigger again given I doubt the LDs would be willing to give them all candidacies both as it would upset present candidates and branches and laying themselves open to calls from Labour of being “mini-me tories” again?

    The voting records of some of those newly-LibDem Tories are going to be a gift to Labour......
    They would certainly seem to me to be a double-edged sword and very likely to staunch the present Lab to LD drift although it would possibly accentuate Con to LD.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114
    Root- golden
  • Well the cricket not going too well 0-2
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Oh dear England 0 -2 !
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114
    What a ball from Cummins.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354

    You just know that Labour will spend more time in the coming election campaign attacking the Lib Dems than the Tories.

    Remain on Remain warfare.....
  • Bring Leach out.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?

    There’s bound to be a YouGov.

    And a Deltapoll

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383503055347712?s=20
    Wonder if it'll be a regular poll or a KABOOOOOOOM poll? :

    His previous comment to the deputy editor of the Observer, who wrote up the Opinium poll, is cryptic, to say the least:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383129334489088?s=21
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    England’s Ashes hopes were fun while they lasted.
  • I don't think I'll come back for the fifth day.
  • I don't think I'll come back for the fifth day.

    I was offered a Sunday ticket. My reply was non too diplomatic
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Good riddance to him. I doubt there will be many tears amongst other Labour MPs .
  • GIN1138 said:

    Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?

    There’s bound to be a YouGov.

    And a Deltapoll

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383503055347712?s=20
    Wonder if it'll be a regular poll or a KABOOOOOOOM poll? :

    His previous comment to the deputy editor of the Observer, who wrote up the Opinium poll, is cryptic, to say the least:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383129334489088?s=21
    It's got to be Boris on 47%.
  • I don't think I'll come back for the fifth day.

    I was offered a Sunday ticket. My reply was non too diplomatic
    Some bellend at TfGM has decided Sunday would be the perfect day to NOT run trams to Old Trafford.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019

    Given the number of Conservative MPs leaving/dismissed, is there a chance of TIG getting bigger again given I doubt the LDs would be willing to give them all candidacies both as it would upset present candidates and branches and laying themselves open to calls from Labour of being “mini-me tories” again?

    The voting records of some of those newly-LibDem Tories are going to be a gift to Labour......
    They would certainly seem to me to be a double-edged sword and very likely to staunch the present Lab to LD drift although it would possibly accentuate Con to LD.

    If you honestly believe that the average voter knows diddly squat about a single mp thinks then you may be mistaken. The problems come internally within the host party. Given the problems are mainly around the gay marriage bill the incomes will have to demonstrate their credentials over time. I think we are trying to build a new broad center coalition which is pro EU, pro environment, pro education and strongly for electoral reform.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    Nigelb said:

    England’s Ashes hopes were fun while they lasted.

    Never mind, England beating Bulgaria 4-0 and we still won the cricket world cup
  • I don't think I'll come back for the fifth day.

    I was offered a Sunday ticket. My reply was non too diplomatic
    Some bellend at TfGM has decided Sunday would be the perfect day to NOT run trams to Old Trafford.
    Sadly I am perfectly unsurprised

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited September 2019
    Hull North votes by ward

    Avenue: 52 for reselection, 25 for open selection
    Central: 0 for reselection, 2 for open selection
    Orchard Park: 4 for reselection, 7 for open selection
    North Carr: 4 for reselection, 7 for open selection
    West Carr: 3 for reselection, 0 for open selection
    University: 6 for reselection, 3 for open selection
    Kingswood: 2 for reselection, 1 for open selection


    OK, it doesn't look as an organized attempt to deselect.
    Barely anyone showed up in the trigger ballot meetings.
    And it seems Diana Johnson hasn't done anything to get out her supporters. Quite too nonchalant on her part.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If the rest of tonight's polling is positive for Boris it might allay some of the murmurings after this week in the party.......
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    GIN1138 said:

    Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?

    There’s bound to be a YouGov.

    And a Deltapoll

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383503055347712?s=20
    Wonder if it'll be a regular poll or a KABOOOOOOOM poll? :

    His previous comment to the deputy editor of the Observer, who wrote up the Opinium poll, is cryptic, to say the least:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383129334489088?s=21
    It's got to be Boris on 47%.
    I took it as he didnt believe the Guardian poll. So suggests his will be closer ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    Nigelb said:

    England’s Ashes hopes were fun while they lasted.

    I said before all the excitement we would win the third test, then meekly roll over for the Ashes in the fourth....
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.
    You wouldn’t be happy to see Scotland follow an Estonian economic model?
    Under the SNP - no chance . Venezuela is their closest model. Or Cuba.
    You really are funny.
    This quality of Unionist debate is bog standard in Scotland. They have zero policy platform to promote, so they just hurl preposterous abuse. Before Venezuela they were banging on about the Yugoslav war. Cuba is a perennial favourite.

    They think they’re being clever, but what they are really doing is betraying their profound hatred (often self-hatred). They really do think that Scotland is a basket case and that Scots are complete morons. And then they wonder why they’ve been out of power in Edinburgh for 12 years, with no end in sight.

    They are very comfortable with a high tax, high spend, puritanical, meddling and authoritarian Conservative government in London, but the prospect of vibrant, open, innovative, multi-party democracy in Edinburgh horrifies them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888
    Excellent captaincy I must say by Tim Paine, other captains would probably be more nervous about leaving anything under 400 for England to chase after Headingley.
  • nichomar said:

    Given the number of Conservative MPs leaving/dismissed, is there a chance of TIG getting bigger again given I doubt the LDs would be willing to give them all candidacies both as it would upset present candidates and branches and laying themselves open to calls from Labour of being “mini-me tories” again?

    The voting records of some of those newly-LibDem Tories are going to be a gift to Labour......
    They would certainly seem to me to be a double-edged sword and very likely to staunch the present Lab to LD drift although it would possibly accentuate Con to LD.

    If you honestly believe that the average voter knows diddly squat about a single mp thinks then you may be mistaken. The problems come internally within the host party. Given the problems are mainly around the gay marriage bill the incomes will have to demonstrate their credentials over time. I think we are trying to build a new broad center coalition which is pro EU, pro environment, pro education and strongly for electoral reform.
    I have no doubt your party is attempting to align itself with those policies but when Labour deliver election leaflets saying the only non-Tory vote is for them then I certainly believe that will concern Lab-LD switchers in the constituency concerned.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
    His seat will be a top Tory target anyway - he was toast.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?

    There’s bound to be a YouGov.

    And a Deltapoll

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383503055347712?s=20
    Wonder if it'll be a regular poll or a KABOOOOOOOM poll? :

    His previous comment to the deputy editor of the Observer, who wrote up the Opinium poll, is cryptic, to say the least:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383129334489088?s=21
    It's got to be Boris on 47%.
    I took it as he didnt believe the Guardian poll. So suggests his will be closer ?
    Maybe LDs above Lab with swinson being most approved leader
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888
    England still have a hope of saving the match whilst Stokes hasn't been dismissed I reckon.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:

    England’s Ashes hopes were fun while they lasted.

    I have £20 on England at 75/1. Matched at 11:30am today.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Given the number of Conservative MPs leaving/dismissed, is there a chance of TIG getting bigger again given I doubt the LDs would be willing to give them all candidacies both as it would upset present candidates and branches and laying themselves open to calls from Labour of being “mini-me tories” again?

    The voting records of some of those newly-LibDem Tories are going to be a gift to Labour......
    They would certainly seem to me to be a double-edged sword and very likely to staunch the present Lab to LD drift although it would possibly accentuate Con to LD.

    If you honestly believe that the average voter knows diddly squat about a single mp thinks then you may be mistaken. The problems come internally within the host party. Given the problems are mainly around the gay marriage bill the incomes will have to demonstrate their credentials over time. I think we are trying to build a new broad center coalition which is pro EU, pro environment, pro education and strongly for electoral reform.
    I have no doubt your party is attempting to align itself with those policies but when Labour deliver election leaflets saying the only non-Tory vote is for them then I certainly believe that will concern Lab-LD switchers in the constituency concerned.

    That wasn’t the point it was about individual MPs impacting lab lib dem switchers. I hope where there is a ‘sane’ remain mp in a lab con marginal then it may be better for them to vote labour, the definition of sane is open to interpretation but I would vote for Benn and Starmer
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
    Is he stepping down next election or taking the Chiltern Hundreds?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
    Is he stepping down next election or taking the Chiltern Hundreds?
    Looks like resignation first outing in new role late September. One wonders why the government would have an Antisemitism tsar all too bloody obvious
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    If the rest of tonight's polling is positive for Boris it might allay some of the murmurings after this week in the party.......

    It seems like the pollsters have no idea what would happen in an election.......
    ,

    Boris with a landslide or well hung?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    😂😂🤣🤣
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any other pollsters due tonight, or later over the weekend ?

    There’s bound to be a YouGov.

    And a Deltapoll

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383503055347712?s=20
    Wonder if it'll be a regular poll or a KABOOOOOOOM poll? :

    His previous comment to the deputy editor of the Observer, who wrote up the Opinium poll, is cryptic, to say the least:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170383129334489088?s=21
    It's got to be Boris on 47%.
    I took it as he didnt believe the Guardian poll. So suggests his will be closer ?
    Really bad form for a pollster to say he doesn't believe in certain polls he disagrees with.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    I don't think I'll come back for the fifth day.

    At least you had some entertainment for your money.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    Surely they aren't still going on with "Stop The Coup" when they are expicitly denying themselves the chance to "Stop The Coup" with a general election?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
    His seat will be a top Tory target anyway - he was toast.
    With Mann, De Piero and Farrelly all going, this very strongly suggests that they are expecting Labour losses in the Midlands Leaver seats.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Pulpstar said:

    England still have a hope of saving the match whilst Stokes hasn't been dismissed I reckon.

    I’d go with that.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    Surely they aren't still going on with "Stop The Coup" when they are expicitly denying themselves the chance to "Stop The Coup" with a general election?
    Owen Jones was there so, ya know, top notch people
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    Surely they aren't still going on with "Stop The Coup" when they are expicitly denying themselves the chance to "Stop The Coup" with a general election?
    I'm afraid so. The headline on that article is "Anti-Brexit protesters decry Johnson's 'coup'" and all the premade signs the protesters are waving contain the hashtag #stopthecoup...

    Not many would-be dictators offer their opponents a general election. Now I almost want Boris to surround Heathrow Airport with tanks on general principle. If we're going to have a coup, we might as well have a real one. It may yet be the only way to actually deliver brexit... ;)

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    nunuone said:

    If the rest of tonight's polling is positive for Boris it might allay some of the murmurings after this week in the party.......

    It seems like the pollsters have no idea what would happen in an election.......
    ,

    Boris with a landslide or well hung?
    Hung out to dry I hope!
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    The pattern seems to be alternating Tory and Labour. It's good optics
  • Any idea what other polls we should be expecting and what time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    Not really, Momentum don't really care about Brexit, they would be happy with a Labour Brexit Deal and socialism.

    It is Blairites and Cameroons and the LDs who are diehard Remainers on the whole along with the SNP
  • Another Labour Leaver is leaving. On the one hand that means they have nothing to lose and can keep voting with the Govrrnment on Brexit. On the other hand if they are replaced with more loyalist and/or europhile candidates it causes Boris more problems if the election results in another hung parliament. The same for several ex Labour Independents ( Austin and Lewis )
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    Not really, Momentum don't really care about Brexit, they would be happy with a Labour Brexit Deal and socialism.

    It is Blairites and Cameroons and the LDs who are diehard Remainers on the whole along with the SNP
    If you read the report it specifically mentions Momentum. They may not care about Brexit, but they love having a ruck with “evil Tories”
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    Who would have thought that the internet might have emboldened extremists 20 years ago.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
  • Byronic said:


    You are free to call me a nutter, of course, but you’re not free to dispute the wording of the Treason Felony Act of 1848. Which, prima facie, has the ‘Rebel Alliance’ bang to rights.

    Show Trials for the leaders of the remainer traitors in parliament.

    Truth & Reconciliation Commission for the rest of the country.
  • Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
    People were saying HMQ wouldn't approve prorogation and she did it unquestioningly.

    HMQ has always taken her ministers advise. If the privy council says to refuse assent then how and why would she approve it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
    His seat will be a top Tory target anyway - he was toast.
    With Mann, De Piero and Farrelly all going, this very strongly suggests that they are expecting Labour losses in the Midlands Leaver seats.
    The Labour party is alo being tilted unequivcably remain as the Tories face leave.
    The big two are making sure of ~ 50% voting blocks between them...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888

    Another Labour Leaver is leaving. On the one hand that means they have nothing to lose and can keep voting with the Govrrnment on Brexit. On the other hand if they are replaced with more loyalist and/or europhile candidates it causes Boris more problems if the election results in another hung parliament. The same for several ex Labour Independents ( Austin and Lewis )

    OTOH The Tories are more leave now.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Another Labour Leaver is leaving. On the one hand that means they have nothing to lose and can keep voting with the Govrrnment on Brexit. On the other hand if they are replaced with more loyalist and/or europhile candidates it causes Boris more problems if the election results in another hung parliament. The same for several ex Labour Independents ( Austin and Lewis )

    OTOH The Tories are more leave now.
    The parties like the country are polarised. The election will be won by whoever can unite their side of the divide.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
    People were saying HMQ wouldn't approve prorogation and she did it unquestioningly.

    HMQ has always taken her ministers advise. If the privy council says to refuse assent then how and why would she approve it?
    Privy council my arse pull the other one after last week
  • Another Labour Leaver is leaving. On the one hand that means they have nothing to lose and can keep voting with the Govrrnment on Brexit. On the other hand if they are replaced with more loyalist and/or europhile candidates it causes Boris more problems if the election results in another hung parliament. The same for several ex Labour Independents ( Austin and Lewis )

    Once Brexit is done this will be a huge problem for Labour.

    They are going to be find themselves in the crowded rejoin space with the LD's, Greens, PC, SNP.

    They will all be gutting each other out whilst there will only be one realistic choice for those who do not want to rejoin the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    Not really, Momentum don't really care about Brexit, they would be happy with a Labour Brexit Deal and socialism.

    It is Blairites and Cameroons and the LDs who are diehard Remainers on the whole along with the SNP
    If you read the report it specifically mentions Momentum. They may not care about Brexit, but they love having a ruck with “evil Tories”
    Maybe but they are aligning with Remainers as a means to an end, a Corbyn government not with the end goal of reversing Brexit and staying in the EU like the Blairites, LDs and Cameroons
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
    His seat will be a top Tory target anyway - he was toast.
    With Mann, De Piero and Farrelly all going, this very strongly suggests that they are expecting Labour losses in the Midlands Leaver seats.
    The Labour party is alo being tilted unequivcably remain as the Tories face leave.
    The big two are making sure of ~ 50% voting blocks between them...
    I think that is right. It is an existential threat for Labour.

    Labour can't allow the LibDems to take 20 per cent of the vote, just as the Tories couldn't allow TBP to take 20 per cent. There will be no 'Remainer Pact'.

    I suspect this means Boris wins.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Any idea what other polls we should be expecting and what time?

    We know we're getting a Delta Poll poll (as Martin Boon confirmed on Twitter)

    I would be shocked if we didn't get YouGov as well.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Tabman said:

    The pattern seems to be alternating Tory and Labour. It's good optics

    Not sure where the next labour one comes from but I’m sure momentum will throw out a few decent candidTes
  • Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    Not really, Momentum don't really care about Brexit, they would be happy with a Labour Brexit Deal and socialism.

    It is Blairites and Cameroons and the LDs who are diehard Remainers on the whole along with the SNP
    If you read the report it specifically mentions Momentum. They may not care about Brexit, but they love having a ruck with “evil Tories”

    Having spent three years scorning it, Momentum has finally realised it has allowed a huge movement - and one with a large central database - to build up with no far-left input or control. It is belatedly and unsuccessfully trying to play catch up. Look at the turnout for its demo today compared to those organised by the People's Vote campaign. This is the reason why you can expect Labour not to allow £3 votes in the next leadership election.

  • stodge said:


    No. All this because MPs forgot they were delegated to represent their constituents and not their own personal wishes and desires.

    I know you all love to quote Burke on this as if he is some sort of prophet but it is worth remembering that Burke's actions based on his own philosophy ruined the businesses and lives of many of those he represented and led to him being thrown out of office 2 years later.

    In the end you can make all these claims about 'delegates' rather than 'representatives' but most of the time it is just a smoke screen for MPs doing what they want and sod their constituents.

    I was actually quoting Churchill, not Burke but that doesn't matter much.

    To be honest, MPs, once elected, can do whatever they like and it's really only their Party that keeps them "in check" via the power of the Whip.

    A referendum is not an election - my area, Newham, voted 53-47 to Remain and my MP, Stephen Timms, voted against the invoking of A50 etc. He was representing his constituents and the result of the referendum in his area if not nationally but the 47% who voted Leave in Newham aren't represented at all.

    Referenda are ultimately divisive and counter-productive and, apart from local issues, probably don't work in a parliamentary democracy. Clement Attlee saw their dangers as have others.

    The nation has had to endure this pain because the Conservative Party was unable to resolve its own internal divisions and decided asking the public would somehow lead to a resolution.
    Referendums work perfectly well if the politicians abide by them. On the other hand our Parliamentary system has been failing for decades and is unfit for purpose.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    Any idea what other polls we should be expecting and what time?

    We know we're getting a Delta Poll poll (as Martin Boon confirmed on Twitter)

    I would be shocked if we didn't get YouGov as well.
    Britain Elects says it has some exclusive polling tonight
  • malcolmg said:

    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, Rory's right. They're starting to sound scary.
    Tbf if there were secret talks between the EU and the rebels and action agreed to subvert the UK government's position then it is collusion with a foreign power. The government are the only people that can negotiate with the EU.
    The language is of course deliberately provocative and not necessary
    Weren't they just checking that the EU would indeed grant an extension if one was requested? If anything they were being helpful to Boris - no point losing him his majority if No Deal was nailed on anyway. Boris and Cummings should be thanking them for injecting a bit of clarity and thoroughness.
    The EU is not a foreign power. We are members.
    The EU is a foreign power for these purposes, the EU's constitution makes this clear. We are not a part of the 27.
    We’re all citizens of that ‘foreign power’.
    Not by choice. Many of us consider their position little different to that of an occupying power.
    Not sure what relevance that has.
    It shows they have gone mental, and are living in la la land
    Funny you and your fellow travellers seem to think the same thing about Scotland and the English. At least I am consistent in my beliefs.
  • Echo chamber isn't its usual Borg-like self tonight.

    Looks like they realise what i've been saying all along is true.

    Get yourself out and about with normal decent people and gauge the true anger at what remainer MPs are doing to our democracy.
  • nichomar said:

    Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
    People were saying HMQ wouldn't approve prorogation and she did it unquestioningly.

    HMQ has always taken her ministers advise. If the privy council says to refuse assent then how and why would she approve it?
    Privy council my arse pull the other one after last week
    Privy Council is constitutionally how HMQ gets her advice from ministers, what do you mean by "my arse pull the other one"?

    If the Privy Council says "don't assent to this" then why would HMQ assent to it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,822

    nichomar said:

    Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
    People were saying HMQ wouldn't approve prorogation and she did it unquestioningly.

    HMQ has always taken her ministers advise. If the privy council says to refuse assent then how and why would she approve it?
    Privy council my arse pull the other one after last week
    Privy Council is constitutionally how HMQ gets her advice from ministers, what do you mean by "my arse pull the other one"?

    If the Privy Council says "don't assent to this" then why would HMQ assent to it?
    In your scenario, Privy Council basically means the PM.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792
    edited September 2019
    We have another two due tonight: YouGov and Panelbase, giving a total of five polls. Here is the summary.

    Key:
    A=previous poll, B=this poll, C=change since last poll, D=Con lead

    Opinium:
    A: Con32%, Lab26%, Lib15%, BXP16%
    B: Con35%, Lab25%, Lib17%, BXP13%
    C: Con+3%, Lab-1%, Lib+2%, BXP-3%
    D 10%

    Panelbase:
    A: Con21%, Lab31%, Lib13%, BXP19%
    B: Con31%. Lab28%, Lib19%, BXP15%
    C: Co+10%, Lab-3%, Lib+6%, BXP-4%
    D 3%

    Survation:
    A: Con31%, Lab24%, Lib21%, BXP14%
    B: Con29%, Lab24%, Lib18%, BXP17%
    C: Con-2%, Lab+0%, Lib-3%, BXP+3%
    D 5%

    YouGov:
    A: Con35%, Lab25%, Lib16%, BXP11%
    B: Con??%, Lab??%, Lib??%, BXP??%
    C: Con??%, Lab??%, Lib??%, BXP??%
    D ?%

    Deltapoll:
    A: Con35%, Lab24%, Lib18%, BXP14%
    B: Con??%, Lab??%, Lib??%, BXP??%
    C: Con??%, Lab??%, Lib??%, BXP??%
    D ?%

    A=previous poll, B=this poll, C=change since last poll, D=Con lead
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I think the we are going to break him and trap him in number 10 comments seeping out from opposition mps plus the 'we will decide when you get to vote' stuff ultimately is very counter productive to them.
    Its goading the electorate into backing the beleaguered PM and showing parliament who is really sovereign.
    The anger is real.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019

    nichomar said:

    Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
    People were saying HMQ wouldn't approve prorogation and she did it unquestioningly.

    HMQ has always taken her ministers advise. If the privy council says to refuse assent then how and why would she approve it?
    Privy council my arse pull the other one after last week
    Privy Council is constitutionally how HMQ gets her advice from ministers, what do you mean by "my arse pull the other one"?

    If the Privy Council says "don't assent to this" then why would HMQ assent to it?
    The privy council consist of a few more than the three that went to balmoral and is not restricted to current government ministers. I invite you to show me where that is where she must gets advice from government ministers to inform her decisions. if that really is the privy council then it’s not fit for purpose
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see John Mann leaving the Commons.
    His seat will be a top Tory target anyway - he was toast.
    With Mann, De Piero and Farrelly all going, this very strongly suggests that they are expecting Labour losses in the Midlands Leaver seats.
    The Labour party is alo being tilted unequivcably remain as the Tories face leave.
    The big two are making sure of ~ 50% voting blocks between them...
    The problem each of them has though is that they are not exclusive blocs. Both have smaller parties which can strip votes from them.

    My hope of course is that this is a bigger problem for Remain than Leave but I wouldn't like to call it.
  • RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
    People were saying HMQ wouldn't approve prorogation and she did it unquestioningly.

    HMQ has always taken her ministers advise. If the privy council says to refuse assent then how and why would she approve it?
    Privy council my arse pull the other one after last week
    Privy Council is constitutionally how HMQ gets her advice from ministers, what do you mean by "my arse pull the other one"?

    If the Privy Council says "don't assent to this" then why would HMQ assent to it?
    In your scenario, Privy Council basically means the PM.
    Privy Council quorom is HMQ plus 3 Privy Councillors. In my scenario I expect it would be Jacob Rees Mogg (Lord President) and 2 others, probably PM and Secretary of State for Exiting the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,822

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris should deny royal assent to the bill since the opposition have refused an election or VONC.

    Let the opposition VONC him if they want assent given.

    He can't. Royal assent is a formality. It is never denied. If Boris tried to drag the Queen into politics by asking her to refuse or delay assent to this bill he will, I am quite certain, be told where to go.
    That's not true. It was denied in 1707.

    Everything is a formality until it isn't.
    It has been a formality for three centuries. For over a century the monarchy has kept itself out of politics. If you really think our current Queen will change that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Sadly, we are well past this argument, after Bercow overturned several centuries of precedent in how standing orders are treated.
    I'm really tired of hearing this idiotic statement. The role of the Speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members. He can conform to precedent or move forward as he interprets the will of the House.
    But two can play at that game.

    The role of the speaker is to represent the interests of Parliament and its members.

    The role of the monarch is to act on the advice of her ministers, as chosen and given confidence by Parliament.

    If her ministers advise to refuse consent then why should the Queen not follow her minister's advise?
    Not if she has any sense. And she has.
    People were saying HMQ wouldn't approve prorogation and she did it unquestioningly.

    HMQ has always taken her ministers advise. If the privy council says to refuse assent then how and why would she approve it?
    Privy council my arse pull the other one after last week
    Privy Council is constitutionally how HMQ gets her advice from ministers, what do you mean by "my arse pull the other one"?

    If the Privy Council says "don't assent to this" then why would HMQ assent to it?
    In your scenario, Privy Council basically means the PM.
    Privy Council quorom is HMQ plus 3 Privy Councillors. In my scenario I expect it would be Jacob Rees Mogg (Lord President) and 2 others, probably PM and Secretary of State for Exiting the EU.
    Yeah, but for all intents and purposes the advice is coming from the PM on such matters.
This discussion has been closed.