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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    edited September 2019
    stodge said:

    The problem is the strong Conservative numbers will re-enforce the desire of those opposed to No Deal not to give Johnson his election.

    He has the polling numbers, they have the Parliamentary numbers.

    Can Johnson hold the line if an alternative Government were to sign up to a 12-24 month extension and then just sit there in Parliament blocking every attempt at a GE? Johnson would have to wait until 2022 by which time 2016 will be ancient history.

    It's possible there might never be an early election.

    Right now it looks good for the Tories but Lib-Lab want to ruin Johnson and his numbers first, by ensuring Brexit delays scupper the Tories. As soon as they do, it may be the Tories that then don't want that election. So it doesn't pass and this circus goes on.

    Isn't the FTPA wonderful?
  • True or false?

    "The more time Sunil spends in Scotland, the more Remainery he becomes."
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    glw said:

    ‪Thanks to Corbyn, the Tories are going to win the next general election, but then they will collapse. The No Deal they will deliver and their morph into a hard right English Nationalist Party is not a sustainable offering. ‬

    That's basically my view as well. Almost anybody other than Corbyn would do significantly better for Labour, but the cultists appear blind to that fact.

    The big Tory issue is how to deliver a Brexit that works for its new voter demographic. A cabinet of hard right, post-Thatcherites, supported by a much more right-wing cohort of MPs than even now, is not going to be throwing money at provincial, working class England for very long once the realities of No Deal bite.

    Your presumption of belt-tightening Thatcherism could be off. Look at Boris - big spending, NHS and infrastructure projects, and I don't think that's just an election bribe. We could be seeing the emergence of an economically liberal, socially conservative party, which is probably overdue considering that's probably where the majority of people in the country are.
  • Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenman said:

    Amber Rudd quits cabinet

    She should never have joined. She destroyed her integrity when she did that.
    She was trying to keep the party grounded. It is now lost.
    The interesting thing is that its increasingly clear the current Government aren't even serious about negotiating a Deal with the EU in good faith.

    The strategy seems to be to threaten No Deal and use that to strike out bits of the WA we don't like, and nothing else.

    It's not particularly insightful or intelligent.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800



    It's possible there might never be an early election.

    Right now it looks good for the Tories but Lib-Lab want to ruin Johnson and his numbers first, by ensuring Brexit delays scupper the Tories. As soon as they do, it may be the Tories that then don't want that election. So it doesn't pass and this circus goes on.

    Isn't the FTPA wonderful?

    It means Johnson is trapped in office unable to call a GE and unable to take us out the EU.

    As I said, he has the polling numbers but not the Parliamentary numbers.

    I begin to suspect he and Cummings thought the threat of expulsion would bring enough rebel Conservatives into line but it has spectacularly backfired.

    I suspect an alternative non-Corbyn led Government might be far stronger, more stable and more successful than some on here expect and might be part of the political re-alignment talked about by so many for so long.

  • Cyclefree said:


    But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong. And having a government which does this degrades our polity, degrades our country and should be criticised. Morality and legality do not depend on popularity. They matter more - in the end - than popularity. Without integrity we are nothing as a people or as a country, however unfashionable or unpopular it may be to say so.

    The remainer MPs in parliament have debased our democracy such that the public, who would once no doubt have agreed with you, are clearly very much behind the PM.

    Remainers were warned time and again about letting the genie out of the bottle with their obvious ploys to overturn the referendum result.

    Sow the wind...

  • The interesting thing is that its increasingly clear the current Government aren't even serious about negotiating a Deal with the EU in good faith.

    The strategy seems to be to threaten No Deal and use that to strike out bits of the WA we don't like, and nothing else.

    It's not particularly insightful or intelligent.

    I think it is incredibly insightful.

    The public are clearly disgusted at the way parliament has behaved over the last 3 years and are loving remainer MPs having it rammed back down their throats.


  • The big Tory issue is how to deliver a Brexit that works for its new voter demographic. A cabinet of hard right, post-Thatcherites, supported by a much more right-wing cohort of MPs than even now, is not going to be throwing money at provincial, working class England for very long once the realities of No Deal bite.

    I read the situation completely differently.

    Brexit being achieved/stopped is a death sentence for one of the two parties.

    Achieve Brexit and Labour will be pulled apart deciding on whether offering to rejoin at future GE's is electorally viable (it isn't).

    If they do offer rejoining they will be fishing in a smallish pond with all the other parties.

    If they don't the LD's will hoover up the hardcore rejoiner vote.

    The Tories will sweep England and...cherry on top...there will be a good chance the Scots will go for independence removing all those MPs from parliament.

    I believe, and i'm being deadly serious, that Brexit being achieved will see Tory maj/Tory largest party for many many years.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Fascinating ComRes numbers coming out:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1170442113546256387

  • AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    Who would have thought that the internet might have emboldened extremists 20 years ago.
    Er, me. I wrote my dissertation on it in 2002.
  • KeithJennerKeithJenner Posts: 99
    edited September 2019
    Sorry, missed the new thread

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:
    What a bunch of tossers. They could "stop the coup" by allowing the prime minister to call an election.
    The hardcore Remainer cause has been captured by the radical left - Momentum etc.

    Politicians like Soubry are foolish to be associated with them.
    Who would have thought that the internet might have emboldened extremists 20 years ago.
    Er, me. I wrote my dissertation on it in 2002.
    I'd like to read it.
  • I suspect the one nation tories have less than a month to no confidence Boris before the Brexit/Conservative parties merge.
This discussion has been closed.