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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will next set of polls show? I have no idea

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Seen this scenario on TV, never expected we'd get a real life version

    Identical triplets have been jailed after DNA linked them to a plot to supply an "extremely dangerous criminal" with an Uzi sub-machine gun.

    DNA found on a handgun linked it to either Reiss, Ralston or Ricky Gabriel but it was impossible for police to prove which brother it belonged to.

    However, an investigation revealed all three were involved.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-49608405
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    If Brexit happens it probably makes Scottish independence even more unlikely. Would Scotland really vote to be outside the UK single market when it is already outside the EU's? Hmm, would be a bold step.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019
    nico67 said:

    I think the country or should I say political anoraks like most of us in here are becoming addicted to the never ending Brexit drama .

    If this ever finishes what will we do !

    Get a life, Brexit dominates all at the moment
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    No certainty about that at all, other than in the wishes of diehard Remainers who believe it is suitable punishment for English Leave voters
    Whose blood should the Tory candidates use to write their pledges?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.

    The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.

    Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
    The Remain campaign was also non-existent in Scotland. There had just been a Holyrood election, and everybody's activists were knackered. Furthermore, everybody knew the result in Scotland would be a comfortable Remain.
  • HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    The Boris and Farage double-act in itself shrinks the combined Tory + Brexit vote by sending Tory Remainers to the Lib Dems.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    No certainty about that at all, other than in the wishes of diehard Remainers who believe it is suitable punishment for English Leave voters
    Whose blood should the Tory candidates use to write their pledges?
    Ulster blood.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited September 2019
    nico67 said:

    I think the country or should I say political anoraks like most of us in here are becoming addicted to the never ending Brexit drama .

    If this ever finishes what will we do !

    That's what thursday night local by-elections are for! When there's a tough fight in the wards of Mousehold, Newlyn & St Buryan or Mylor, Perranarworthal & Ponsanooth, well, that's where the excitement is.

    PS Cornwall electoral division names are fantastic.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    The Boris and Farage double-act in itself shrinks the combined Tory + Brexit vote by sending Tory Remainers to the Lib Dems.
    That’s not been reflected in the polls yet unfortunately.
  • Boris banged up in Strangeways would be a rather interesting ending to all this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    No certainty about that at all, other than in the wishes of diehard Remainers who believe it is suitable punishment for English Leave voters
    Whose blood should the Tory candidates use to write their pledges?
    Given how...passionately excited by no deal they tend to get, I'm happy not to ask whose blood in case they decide to use some other fluid to write the pledge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    Boris banged up in Strangeways would be a rather interesting ending to all this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/

    As I said last night he would be a martyr, Boris would become the Nelson Mandela of Leavers.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    No certainty about that at all, other than in the wishes of diehard Remainers who believe it is suitable punishment for English Leave voters
    Whose blood should the Tory candidates use to write their pledges?
    Given how...passionately excited by no deal they tend to get, I'm happy not to ask whose blood in case they decide to use some other fluid to write the pledge.
    Eeeuw
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    Boris banged up in Strangeways would be a rather interesting ending to all this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/

    As I said last night he would be a martyr, the Nelson Mandela of Leavers.

    Whose blood?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    I keep hearing about this but (1) I cannot imagine the Tories standing down in a single seat, and (2) a non-aggression agreement from Farage might be possible this week, but will it be next week? Or the week after?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    I want Boris-Cummings to keep the clever wheezes Cumming.

    The government voting No Confidence in itself in its ability to govern has been touted by various nutcases in the Tory Party.

    That would be brilliant fun.

    But probably a distant dream now after this latest poll.

    Maybe Boris breaking the law of the land is a better bet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    If Brexit happens it probably makes Scottish independence even more unlikely. Would Scotland really vote to be outside the UK single market when it is already outside the EU's? Hmm, would be a bold step.
    Well, that rather depends on whether there will be frictionless cross border trade, like we're told will happen in Ireland.
    Also, these economic arguments are only a part of the story; values play an important role in the way people vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    nico67 said:

    I think the country or should I say political anoraks like most of us in here are becoming addicted to the never ending Brexit drama .

    If this ever finishes what will we do !


    I was just thinking that.

    The trouble is, you need ever greater extremes to get your fix.

    Say Ken Clarke defected to the Liberals tomorrow?

    I’d just shrug.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Corbyn vs no deal and best pm ratings.....

    No wonder Labour are running for the hills
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited September 2019



    Maybe Boris breaking the law of the land is a better bet?

    HYUFD can barely contain his excitement at the prospect, he's practically drooling at the chance for Boris to become a martyred hero of the land (never mind all that following the law nonsense after all), so yes it is probably a better bet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    nico67 said:

    I think the country or should I say political anoraks like most of us in here are becoming addicted to the never ending Brexit drama .

    If this ever finishes what will we do !

    Watch Trump get re-elected?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    ...
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    Boris banged up in Strangeways would be a rather interesting ending to all this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/

    As I said last night he would be a martyr, Boris would become the Nelson Mandela of Leavers.

    Will Cameron campaign for him to be hanged, as he did with the Nelson Mandela of South Africa, Nelson Mandela?
  • At least SLab are beating TBP in that Yougov SCon constituency only poll. They'll probably take that in the current climate.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1170086850700161025?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
    Not if last night's council by elections are anything to go by, big swing from Labour to LDs and Tories won 2 out of 3 seats with a voteshare barely up at all
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
    Why should the LDs get the vote elsewhere, even in places where Labour are currently in second place?
  • Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    A pact is absolutely essential and I think Nigel Farage knows it . There is just no point in spreading campaigning resource across every constituency and taking votes off Leaver Tories.The key question of course are is whether to stand down against all Tory candidates eg do you give Rudd a free pass and who gets the run at which Labour seats.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    I keep hearing about this but (1) I cannot imagine the Tories standing down in a single seat, and (2) a non-aggression agreement from Farage might be possible this week, but will it be next week? Or the week after?
    The talk is Arron Banks is prepared to fund the Tories if theres a formal pact
    Can't see that but maybe some more secret pact might be stitched up
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
    Not if last night's council by elections are anything to go by, big swing from Labour to LDs and Tories won 2 out of 3 seats with a voteshare barely up at all
    Oi! You said that Tory candidates' pledges should be written in blood. Whose blood?
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris banged up in Strangeways would be a rather interesting ending to all this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/

    As I said last night he would be a martyr, Boris would become the Nelson Mandela of Leavers.

    Will Cameron campaign for him to be hanged, as he did with the Nelson Mandela of South Africa, Nelson Mandela?
    Pretty sure Bercow would.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    Freggles said:

    GIN1138 said:
    "Come on, let's go to a cafe"

    "Let's not right now"

    "You've been asking to go out for dinner for ages, let's go! "

    "Not until I've put out the fire you started in the kitchen!"
    Quite.

    Gin and TGOHF and the rest of the YTS trainees on the CCHQ social media team really need some new lines.
  • At least SLab are beating TBP in that Yougov SCon constituency only poll. They'll probably take that in the current climate.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1170086850700161025?s=20

    SLab down 10 is entirely consistent with recent results in by elections.

    Ian Murray stands alone on the barricades of Morningside.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    Switched on BBC2's "Front Row Late" to hear and see Germaine Greer and Peter Hitchens discussing Germaine Greer's vagina.
  • AndyJS said:

    Switched on BBC2's "Front Row Late" to hear and see Germaine Greer and Peter Hitchens discussing Germaine Greer's vagina.

    Hitchens is presumably against it.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    I keep hearing about this but (1) I cannot imagine the Tories standing down in a single seat, and (2) a non-aggression agreement from Farage might be possible this week, but will it be next week? Or the week after?
    The talk is Arron Banks is prepared to fund the Tories if theres a formal pact
    Can't see that but maybe some more secret pact might be stitched up
    Just can't see it. The Tory parliamentary party would go mental. I can't see how Boris & Cummings would get it past anyone else. Gove would walk, and it would be over.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited September 2019
    Deleted. Double post.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    I think the Tories will gain and Labour lose from the Parliamentary shenanigans. I've put down in prior threads that I expect if this continues the Tories will be on or about 40% by the end of October [especially after Tory Conference] and will not be hurt by a Labour caused extension.

    Survation goes against this. We'll see what happens yet to come but I still stand by my original thoughts.

    You’ve never been one to let evidence get in the way of your thinking ;)
  • AndyJS said:

    Switched on BBC2's "Front Row Late" to hear and see Germaine Greer and Peter Hitchens discussing Germaine Greer's vagina.

    It makes a change from talking about pricks....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508

    HYUFD said:

    49% not 50%

    Peak HYUFD!

    😂
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    AndyJS said:

    Switched on BBC2's "Front Row Late" to hear and see Germaine Greer and Peter Hitchens discussing Germaine Greer's vagina.

    On any other website that might seem strange...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    kle4 said:



    Maybe Boris breaking the law of the land is a better bet?

    HYUFD can barely contain his excitement at the prospect, he's practically drooling at the chance for Boris to become a martyred hero of the land (never mind all that following the law nonsense after all), so yes it is probably a better bet.
    Puts me in mind of this:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OjzKiEs_pHI
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    TGOHF said:
    This is not a columnar conceit. Delly does not really have a thesis; no point to prove. He can only tentatively explain this atmosphere:

    I believe though that Britain is on the verge of entering another golden age. And that Boris Johnson is set to join Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher as one of the three great Conservative Prime Ministers of the last 100 years.
    I hope he's right.

    But I don't see any evidence for it.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    AndyJS said:

    Switched on BBC2's "Front Row Late" to hear and see Germaine Greer and Peter Hitchens discussing Germaine Greer's vagina.

    Hitchens is presumably against it.
    :-) It's actually quite a good discussion. I think they should get them on Politics Live.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
    Not if last night's council by elections are anything to go by, big swing from Labour to LDs and Tories won 2 out of 3 seats with a voteshare barely up at all
    Oi! You said that Tory candidates' pledges should be written in blood. Whose blood?
    Their own
  • Boris banged up in Strangeways would be a rather interesting ending to all this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/

    I'm afraid the Netflix series story arc would demand that he be in Wormwood Scrubs.

    On another note, Simon Callow has offered this evening to play Bercow in any forthcoming drama.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    If Brexit happens it probably makes Scottish independence even more unlikely. Would Scotland really vote to be outside the UK single market when it is already outside the EU's? Hmm, would be a bold step.
    It would probably be enthusiastically welcomed back into the EU in that scenario.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris banged up in Strangeways would be a rather interesting ending to all this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/

    As I said last night he would be a martyr, Boris would become the Nelson Mandela of Leavers.

    Will Cameron campaign for him to be hanged, as he did with the Nelson Mandela of South Africa, Nelson Mandela?
    Who knows but I am looking forward to my first 'Free Boris Johnson' march
  • Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    A pact is absolutely essential and I think Nigel Farage knows it . There is just no point in spreading campaigning resource across every constituency and taking votes off Leaver Tories.The key question of course are is whether to stand down against all Tory candidates eg do you give Rudd a free pass and who gets the run at which Labour seats.
    If the Tories tie up with the Brexit Party, they will become more toxic than ever.

    If you lie with dogs, you get fleas.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    A pact is absolutely essential and I think Nigel Farage knows it . There is just no point in spreading campaigning resource across every constituency and taking votes off Leaver Tories.The key question of course are is whether to stand down against all Tory candidates eg do you give Rudd a free pass and who gets the run at which Labour seats.
    Maybe you divvy it up - BP leaves off all Cabinet members (because they signed up to No Deal if needs be) and those in the ERG. Everyone else is fair game?

    Fantasy politics, of course. It will never happen.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    If Brexit happens it probably makes Scottish independence even more unlikely. Would Scotland really vote to be outside the UK single market when it is already outside the EU's? Hmm, would be a bold step.
    It would probably be enthusiastically welcomed back into the EU in that scenario.
    Not much change for the Scots - just swap being a net recipient of cash from one richer union from another.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    I keep hearing about this but (1) I cannot imagine the Tories standing down in a single seat, and (2) a non-aggression agreement from Farage might be possible this week, but will it be next week? Or the week after?
    The talk is Arron Banks is prepared to fund the Tories if theres a formal pact
    Can't see that but maybe some more secret pact might be stitched up
    Just can't see it. The Tory parliamentary party would go mental. I can't see how Boris & Cummings would get it past anyone else. Gove would walk, and it would be over.
    Agreed but some sort of non aggression pact is possible. Lay off attacks on each other and Farage knows where to unofficially soft pedal .
    Or a promise of something post election and Farage suddenly 'sadly cannot commit to standing in every constituency'
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.

    They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.

    The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.

    Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
    On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
    If Brexit happens it probably makes Scottish independence even more unlikely. Would Scotland really vote to be outside the UK single market when it is already outside the EU's? Hmm, would be a bold step.
    It would probably be enthusiastically welcomed back into the EU in that scenario.
    It will need to be, as it will need a currency (the euro) and a shit load of funds.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In which seats would the Tories stand down in favour of the Brexit Party?
  • kle4 said:
    Kinnock is so thick
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
    Not if last night's council by elections are anything to go by, big swing from Labour to LDs and Tories won 2 out of 3 seats with a voteshare barely up at all
    Oi! You said that Tory candidates' pledges should be written in blood. Whose blood?
    Their own
    Would you extend that to Tory council candidates?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2019

    At least SLab are beating TBP in that Yougov SCon constituency only poll. They'll probably take that in the current climate.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1170086850700161025?s=20

    SLab down 10 is entirely consistent with recent results in by elections.

    Ian Murray stands alone on the barricades of Morningside.
    Murray, like Swinson, is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting. In the current harsh split within Unionism, I cannot see that pattern holding.
  • rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:
    This is not a columnar conceit. Delly does not really have a thesis; no point to prove. He can only tentatively explain this atmosphere:

    I believe though that Britain is on the verge of entering another golden age. And that Boris Johnson is set to join Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher as one of the three great Conservative Prime Ministers of the last 100 years.
    I hope he's right.

    But I don't see any evidence for it.
    For Boris is either one of the greats or one of the worst/shortest. There is no longer a middle ground, if there ever was.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    I keep hearing about this but (1) I cannot imagine the Tories standing down in a single seat, and (2) a non-aggression agreement from Farage might be possible this week, but will it be next week? Or the week after?
    The talk is Arron Banks is prepared to fund the Tories if theres a formal pact
    Can't see that but maybe some more secret pact might be stitched up
    Just can't see it. The Tory parliamentary party would go mental. I can't see how Boris & Cummings would get it past anyone else. Gove would walk, and it would be over.
    Agreed but some sort of non aggression pact is possible. Lay off attacks on each other and Farage knows where to unofficially soft pedal .
    Or a promise of something post election and Farage suddenly 'sadly cannot commit to standing in every constituency'
    Haven't they selected candidates? The one here is campaigning already.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Because they are nationalists. Their belief is not in subsidiarity but in the hallowed nature of a particular nation (or what they think is a nation).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I would actually like to see Farage in the Commons - I'd like to discover if it would change him in any way. Obviously being an MEP has not, but as much contempt as professes for MPs and our parliament, he is theoretically committed to restoring more of its authority (I say in theory since I am fairly sure he won't stand his candidates down, and will cost Tories, and therefore Brexit, victory) so actually being there, contributing in some small way to law making in the UK, how would he find the experience?
  • AndyJS said:

    In which seats would the Tories stand down in favour of the Brexit Party?

    So.... you could elect (say) 300 Tories or 250 Tories & 50 BP?

    Err...???!?

    What would be the point?
  • One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Because it’s an essential component of the exceptionalist mindset. If we share this island with another European country, Europe can no longer be a place on the other side of the Channel.
  • Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    A pact is absolutely essential and I think Nigel Farage knows it . There is just no point in spreading campaigning resource across every constituency and taking votes off Leaver Tories.The key question of course are is whether to stand down against all Tory candidates eg do you give Rudd a free pass and who gets the run at which Labour seats.
    If the Tories tie up with the Brexit Party, they will become more toxic than ever.

    If you lie with dogs, you get fleas.
    cf Johann Lamont, Alastair Darling, Wullie Rennie and Nick Clegg.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    kle4 said:



    Maybe Boris breaking the law of the land is a better bet?

    HYUFD can barely contain his excitement at the prospect, he's practically drooling at the chance for Boris to become a martyred hero of the land (never mind all that following the law nonsense after all), so yes it is probably a better bet.
    Indeed. Although he was also keen on the idea that the queen would be directed to not give royal assent to a bill passed by Parliament, so metric tonnes of salt required.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
    Not if last night's council by elections are anything to go by, big swing from Labour to LDs and Tories won 2 out of 3 seats with a voteshare barely up at all
    Oi! You said that Tory candidates' pledges should be written in blood. Whose blood?
    Their own
    Would you extend that to Tory council candidates?
    No, as Tory councillors have no control over Brexit unlike Tory MPs, if they stood for Parliament then obviously it would apply
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2019

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to tryventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    I keep hearing about this but (1) I cannot imagine the Tories standing down in a single seat, and (2) a non-aggression agreement from Farage might be possible this week, but will it be next week? Or the week after?
    The talk is Arron Banks is prepared to fund the Tories if theres a formal pact
    Can't see that but maybe some more secret pact might be stitched up
    Just can't see it. The Tory parliamentary party would go mental. I can't see how Boris & Cummings would get it past anyone else. Gove would walk, and it would be over.
    Agreed but some sort of non aggression pact is possible. Lay off attacks on each other and Farage knows where to unofficially soft pedal .
    Or a promise of something post election and Farage suddenly 'sadly cannot commit to standing in every constituency'
    Haven't they selected candidates? The one here is campaigning already.
    They've selected lots of candidates, presumably not everywhere though, much like the others. It may be that Farage cannot control them at this point - it was speculated last night that maybe more of the candidates themselves might not be as gung ho as Farage would like about splitting the Brexit vote in a GE, but it might even be the other way around, that Farage needs to be gung ho because all those people who have been told they are here to change politics for good won't back down en masse if he orders it.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    At least SLab are beating TBP in that Yougov SCon constituency only poll. They'll probably take that in the current climate.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1170086850700161025?s=20

    SLab down 10 is entirely consistent with recent results in by elections.

    Ian Murray stands alone on the barricades of Morningside.
    Murray, like Swinson, is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting. In the current harsh split within Unionism, I cannot see that pattern holding.
    Morningside is safe territory for Murray. It's Remain central, Murray is well known and liked as a constituency MP, and they know him to be hostile to the excesses of Corbynism. Any rotting of Labour from the head down will reach Morningside last of all. There will not be a change of MP unless Murray stands down or the boundaries change.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    The inverse is also the case - people more than happy to see Scotland leave the UK, but horrified at the thought of the UK leaving the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    AndyJS said:

    In which seats would the Tories stand down in favour of the Brexit Party?

    Yvette Cooper's and Tom Watson's for starters
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    At least SLab are beating TBP in that Yougov SCon constituency only poll. They'll probably take that in the current climate.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1170086850700161025?s=20

    SLab down 10 is entirely consistent with recent results in by elections.

    Ian Murray stands alone on the barricades of Morningside.
    Brilliant tactical voting by Labour supporters !!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
    Tactical voting is the key!

    Labour where there is a sound sitting MP, Lib Dem elsewhere. It was a key part of the 97 landslide, and may be re-emerging.
    Not if last night's council by elections are anything to go by, big swing from Labour to LDs and Tories won 2 out of 3 seats with a voteshare barely up at all
    Oi! You said that Tory candidates' pledges should be written in blood. Whose blood?
    Their own
    Would you extend that to Tory council candidates?
    No, as Tory councillors have no control over Brexit unlike Tory MPs, if they stood for Parliament then obviously it would apply
    So you are saying that Tory council candidates don't have the same commitment as Tory PPCs?
  • TGOHF said:

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.
    You wouldn’t be happy to see Scotland follow an Estonian economic model?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    The inverse is also the case - people more than happy to see Scotland leave the UK, but horrified at the thought of the UK leaving the EU.
    Like William Glenn
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    TGOHF said:

    Fairly weak, thin stuff, at least at this stage.
  • Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
    A pact is absolutely essential and I think Nigel Farage knows it . There is just no point in spreading campaigning resource across every constituency and taking votes off Leaver Tories.The key question of course are is whether to stand down against all Tory candidates eg do you give Rudd a free pass and who gets the run at which Labour seats.
    If the Tories tie up with the Brexit Party, they will become more toxic than ever.

    If you lie with dogs, you get fleas.
    You could say the same about any MP supporting Corbyn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    In which seats would the Tories stand down in favour of the Brexit Party?

    Knowsley, East Ham, Liverpool Walton...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Labour strategy is working.

    Keep Boris on the pot.

    Let him stew.

    On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
    What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
    Alyn and Deeside, Ashfield, Bolsover, Boston and Skegness, Carmathen West and Pembrokeshire South, Clwyd South, Delyn, Mansfield, Montgomeryshire, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Thurrock, Torfaen, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham and Ynys Mon according to Electoral Calculus will all go Brexit Party based on tonight's Survation poll.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=29&LAB=24&LIB=18&Brexit=17&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
    Thanks. I don’t know enough about these seats to make any comments really. A lot of Welsh seats. @Big_G_NorthWales any comments?
    It exaggerates the Tories because a Scotland is not analysed properly. You can reduce Con by 10, at least and add it to the SNP.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.
    You wouldn’t be happy to see Scotland follow an Estonian economic model?
    Under the SNP - no chance . Venezuela is their closest model. Or Cuba.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    The inverse is also the case - people more than happy to see Scotland leave the UK, but horrified at the thought of the UK leaving the EU.
    This one makes more sense: some people believe in Scottish independence because they don't feel the values of Scotland are reflected in the governments elected to Westminster. The (perceived) gap in values is, for some, reflected by a similar gap between England and Europe. Put simply, some see England as being out of step with Scotland and Europe, and therefore something to separate from. You can see the coherence of that without agreeing with all or any of the premises.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Boris to learn you cannot prove yourself to these people.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited September 2019

    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?

    Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.

    The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...

    Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
    Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
    In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
    I keep hearing about this but (1) I cannot imagine the Tories standing down in a single seat, and (2) a non-aggression agreement from Farage might be possible this week, but will it be next week? Or the week after?
    The talk is Arron Banks is prepared to fund the Tories if theres a formal pact
    Can't see that but maybe some more secret pact might be stitched up

    Agreed but some sort of non aggression pact is possible. Lay off attacks on each other and Farage knows where to unofficially soft pedal .
    Or a promise of something post election and Farage suddenly 'sadly cannot commit to standing in every constituency'
    THat doesn't work. It's all or nothing - because even parties who campaign hesitantly, or not at all, win votes if they are on the ballot. And the BP have already had cut-through, winning the the Euros and still in the mid-teens.

    The only way it would work is not standing against each other in seats, or even for the BP to stand down completely to leave the field to a Boris Hard Brexit Tory party. Can't see Farage sanctioning the latter, can't see the Tories sanctioning the former.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    In which seats would the Tories stand down in favour of the Brexit Party?

    Knowsley, East Ham, Liverpool Walton...
    Not seats the Brexit Party has any chance of winning.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    In which seats would the Tories stand down in favour of the Brexit Party?

    Yvette Cooper's and Tom Watson's for starters
    Yes, those two would make sense.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Noo said:

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    The inverse is also the case - people more than happy to see Scotland leave the UK, but horrified at the thought of the UK leaving the EU.
    This one makes more sense: some people believe in Scottish independence because they don't feel the values of Scotland are reflected in the governments elected to Westminster. The (perceived) gap in values is, for some, reflected by a similar gap between England and Europe. Put simply, some see England as being out of step with Scotland and Europe, and therefore something to separate from. You can see the coherence of that without agreeing with all or any of the premises.
    Or perhaps they are ignorant of the damage the SNP is doing to Scotland and they have it down as some leftie utopia - rather than a nation on the decline as education standards fall fast.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.
    You wouldn’t be happy to see Scotland follow an Estonian economic model?
    Under the SNP - no chance . Venezuela is their closest model. Or Cuba.
    An independent Scotland wouldn’t be a one party state, and its politics would develop according to Scotland’s needs.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    TGOHF said:

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.

    So you're OK with the Borisites being high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling and authoritarian, provided they're not socialist?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    kle4 said:
    Kinnock is so thick
    Perhaps he could see himself losing his seat to BXP is nothing is sorted out?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    One thing I have never grasped is why the hardest europhobes seem to also be the hardest anti Scots independence. Richard Tyndall is the honourable exception.

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.
    You wouldn’t be happy to see Scotland follow an Estonian economic model?
    Under the SNP - no chance . Venezuela is their closest model. Or Cuba.
    This isn't remotely true. The SNP is a centrist party with a mix of socialist and conservative appeal. It's better to describe it as a big tent party. There would be no consensus for a radical change to the economy. Those folks are more attracted to the Greens.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited September 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:
    Kinnock is so thick
    Perhaps he could see himself losing his seat to BXP is nothing is sorted out?
    More likely he is covering his bases by always being 'willing to leave' if only the right moment or deal had come along, but darn it it never did. So keep some leavers on side, while not pushing away any remainers. It's very easy for him to talk about how he wants a deal, without ever sullying himself for it.
  • Noo said:

    At least SLab are beating TBP in that Yougov SCon constituency only poll. They'll probably take that in the current climate.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1170086850700161025?s=20

    SLab down 10 is entirely consistent with recent results in by elections.

    Ian Murray stands alone on the barricades of Morningside.
    Murray, like Swinson, is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting. In the current harsh split within Unionism, I cannot see that pattern holding.
    Morningside is safe territory for Murray. It's Remain central, Murray is well known and liked as a constituency MP, and they know him to be hostile to the excesses of Corbynism. Any rotting of Labour from the head down will reach Morningside last of all. There will not be a change of MP unless Murray stands down or the boundaries change.
    The Grange, Greenbank, Liberton etc are stuffed full of wealthy pensioners with massive houses and fat RBS pensions, Marchmont/Bruntsfield are full of well-heeled students from the Home Counties, with their Fiat 500s parked outside. Everyone has a vested interest in the status quo - its a tough sell for the SNP, no matter how much everyone hates Bozzie.

    The day Edinburgh South finally falls is the day Sturgeon should call IndyRef2.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    viewcode said:

    TGOHF said:

    Nats and the EU are high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling, authoritarian- and socialist.

    So you're OK with the Borisites being high tax, high spend , puritanical, meddling and authoritarian, provided they're not socialist?

    Mrs May was puritanical and meddling. Hammond was high tax. Neither come close to Sturgeons reign of dismay.

    Boris may not get the chance to make a comparison..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    In which seats would the Tories stand down in favour of the Brexit Party?

    Knowsley, East Ham, Liverpool Walton...
    Walthamstow, Islington North, Islington South, Camberwell & Peckham.
This discussion has been closed.