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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will next set of polls show? I have no idea
I saw this, cringed so hard, my feet shrank three sizes. https://t.co/VbgZAte8pA
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I've been wondering if there's a possibility for the opposition (or at least, a segment of the opposition necessary to reach the 2/3 threshold) to demand something else in return for granting Johnson's preferred timing (and hence avoid looking like election-ducking cowards).
Perhaps something really humiliating to absolutely underline the narrative that Boris is weak and doesn't/can't keep his promises.
Perhaps a favourable change to the electoral laws. Don't think you could do anything super-radical here - implementing the boundary review would actually likely favour the Tories, wouldn't it? And not much else is easily ready to roll out. AV is off the menu after its referendum failure. PR or multi-member STV would be too drastic to push through (though I'm sure there's some ancient STV legislation that could be given a dusting-off...). But how about:
"This is a generational-defining election, and the voting age must accordingly fall to 16 - just as it is already in the more progressive parts of the UK."
Is that a go-er? My first thought was that the logistics would be tricky in terms of registration, but in principle there'd be time for the eager ones to register during the campaign and the less-than-eager probably wouldn't vote anyway.
There's got to be something tempting about trying to lock in a permanent electoral advantage in return for a one-off concession over timing, particularly if the timing issue is a double-edged takeaway-flavoured sword for them...
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1170079173714599938?s=20
(Edit: The tweet doesn't appear to be loading for me but it refers to this)
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tories-set-lose-scottish-seats-19586216?1
The Conservatives are set to lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP in a general election, a new poll suggests.
There are 13 Tory MPs in Scotland, but the YouGov poll for the People's Vote campaign indicates they would all be replaced by the SNP.
But who knows?
Con, Lib-Dem, SNP up!
Lab, BXP down!
Con Lead Up Over Lab
Only one more sleep until we find out anyway.
https://twitter.com/Harkaway/status/1170054287197724673
And copyright issues
https://twitter.com/damiengwalter/status/1170077850835333125
Exciting, isn't it?
It feels more to me like it's a strategy designed to neutralise talk of a coup.
Consider the average, uninformed voter. They hear in the media - especially social media - that BoJo is behaving undemocratically.
Today we have chicken memes and KFC spreading the message far and wide to the average non-follower of politics. The Tories wanted an election, it was Corbyn who chickened out.
As an ad I think it's ugly and clumsy but as a message I think it penetrates and neutralises the opposition line of attack.
What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
con 37 lab 25 lib dem 18 bxp 8 green 5 SNP 4
Actual campaign it will evaporate though
He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
Your earlier predictions of a majority Boris government are melting faster than snow in a desert
Boris has defenestrated the party, made himself an object of jest and laughter, and his actions have most certainly ended a no deal brexit, and possibly brexit completely
You do not win elections this way and the 19th October will be his day of reckoning, if he gets that far. His only chance of saving anything is to get Kinnocks WDA through by the 19th enabling exit on the 31st
Anything else and he is toast and as for his party, unless there is a coup it is finished
He is going to gloriously lead the headbangers OUT of government?
Lucky if he lasts the week after that...
Except for men who don’t wear proper socks with shoes.
Oh, and vegans.
And anyone who doesn’t drink.
Well basically people who don’t live near me and drink in my local. And even then I’m suspicious of lager drinkers.
The person who tweeted it however stole it. Limited personal use is allowed free of charge but a journalist tweeting it could be deemed in furtherance of his work
You had one job, mate.
This looks new?
(I’ll get my coat)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9MUwBEJRwk
I would also point out to you that on the latest YouGov 42% of Tory voters 1st preference is a Boris renegotiated Deal without the backstop, 35% have a first preference of leaving with No Deal and just 2% of Tory voters (and 2% of voters as a whole) now back leaving the EU on May's current Withdrawal Agreement
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ujzr9xbt4q/YouGov - Realistic Brexit.pdf
You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
Lab 24%
LD 18% (-3)
Brexit 17% (+3)
Boris preferred as PM by 46% now to 24% for Corbyn.
Voters back an election by 48% to 31%.
43% back the expulsion of the 21 Tory rebels to only 32% who disapprove.
52% back leaving with No Deal to only 31% who back Corbyn as PM on a forced choice.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7436869/Almost-half-Johnson-early-election-want-no-deal-Corbyn-poll-shows.html
The right must unite.
Obvious really!
It's almost like this is nothing to do with stopping fraud...
They also prefer an election later after any so called negotiations are finished .
Could just be margin of error stuff.
Con + Lab combined on just 53% = UNS shafted