If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD
Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.
He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner
You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
Clearly not.
Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD
Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.
He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner
You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
Clearly not.
Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
There is a danger with all these games Remainers are playing that people will juist give up on Con and move to Farage and the Brexit Party then really takes off and ends up winning enough seats from Con and Lab to hold the balance of power.
FPTP makes it unlikely but I don't think you can rule it out...
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.
The fact that it doesn’t have “Getty Inages@ across it suggests that it was properly licensed not “pirated”
The person who tweeted it however stole it. Limited personal use is allowed free of charge but a journalist tweeting it could be deemed in furtherance of his work
The image would have been licensed by CCHQ, any journalist retweeting it would fall under fair use laws.
Not sure on fair use - it’s going to be very widespread circulation, unlike a picture in a paper. The argument would be his career might well benefit from the high profile it generates
Great figures from Survation. You have to see the Boris project as a Rocket launch. Lift off and ascent aren't enough. He needs escape velocity. The polling and this week's events suggest he doesn't have escape velocity. So while he is still going up and in flight the return to earth and crash is inevitable. As soon as Boris becomes just another PM people will notice he isn't a very good one.
Even at the height of his No Deal madman act, Johnson is losing ground to the Brexit Party and his personal ratings have gone negative. He’s done.
Boris has a huge 46% to 26% lead over Corbyn as preferred PM on tonight's poll so of course he is not done and according to Electoral Calculus on tonight's Survation poll it would be Tories 311, Labour 219, LDs 48, Brexit Party 15.
So Boris could still form a government with the Brexit Party and DUP or else Swinson would have the balance of power and likely refuse to back Corbyn as PM
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
There is a danger with all these games Remainers are playing that people will juist give up on Con and move to Farage and the Brexit Party then really takes off and ends up winning enough seats from Con and Lab to hold the balance of power.
FPTP makes it unlikely but I don't think you can rule it out...
It's almost like there's a significant number of people who want Brexit done at any cost.
As I've said for the hundredth or so time, the threshold for brexit isn't 51% in a referendum, it's 30-ish% in a general election that puts a hard brexit party in power and we leave that way.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Mrs Foxy mootng today a move to Scotland, for much those reasons. Will have to dust off my volume of Burns.
The public want Boris Johnson to resign if we haven't left by the 31st of October.
Which he will to become Leader of the Opposition
Says the man who predicted that Chuka Umunna would lead the Labour Party. Outstanding knowledge and judgement.
The Tories won’t be able to flush the turd quickly enough. And BoZo is so deluded, he’ll think this is the start of his Churchillian “Wilderness Years”.
Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.
The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.
Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
Thinking about the Scottish UNS poll, it is actually in line with the recent all scotland poll, Tory vote drop slightly higher but out if the 13 I'd fancy they are losing more in places like Ayr, Carrick and cumnock, Stirling etc than borders and the NE so given how tight this would make two border seats and aberdeenshire relatively close 3 seats is probably roughly right if they like resources into the easier defences
If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD
Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.
He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner
You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
Clearly not.
Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
It’s just a flesh wound.
What is it about crippled Tory leaders and the Black Night sketch? ‘Tis but a scratch.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.
Him resigning and trying to fight the coming election as Conservative leader only or even LotO is certainly the logical extension of the Cummings/da Costa strategy. Or perhaps the logical reinforcement of the strategy now it has initially failed.
On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 43 Labour seats in the process
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...
Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
Voters aren't so stupid that they forget the existence of a party that they voted for just 4 months ago. I did expect the Tories would be higher in the latest polls (and they might be in the ones we see tomorrow night) but this poll is a reminder of how soft Tory support has become. The more evidence there is that Boris will fail to keep his promise, the lower the Tories will go.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
This is not a columnar conceit. Delly does not really have a thesis; no point to prove. He can only tentatively explain this atmosphere:
I believe though that Britain is on the verge of entering another golden age. And that Boris Johnson is set to join Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher as one of the three great Conservative Prime Ministers of the last 100 years.
When the extension is sorted, I expect Jezza will be keen as mustard again.
And somehow I don't think 'the big meanie said he didn't want one, but now he does because he thinks he will win' will be a cutting counter from the Tories.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Mrs Foxy mootng today a move to Scotland, for much those reasons. Will have to dust off my volume of Burns.
Mrs Dickson banging on again about a move to London. Will have to dust off my flak jacket.
On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.
I think she's great. She reminds me of John Cole, but she's substantially prettier.
She's the one voice in the political arena that I will always listen to at present.
Kuennsberg reporting Boris is having a meeting with Cummings and da Costa at Chevening on Sunday (just the three of them). I wouldn't be surprised if they're discussing if he should resign.
I think she's great. She reminds me of John Cole, but she's substantially prettier.
She's the one voice in the political arena that I will always listen to at present.
I have a massive thing for Kuennsberg not going to lie.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
Voters aren't so stupid that they forget the existence of a party that they voted for just 4 months ago. I did expect the Tories would be higher in the latest polls (and they might be in the ones we see tomorrow night) but this poll is a reminder of how soft Tory support has become. The more evidence there is that Boris will fail to keep his promise, the lower the Tories will go.
There's also the several million remain supporting Tories who might be being edged away while the Brexit Party are being pandered to.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...
Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.
The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.
Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
I love how the 38% must be respected, but the 62%, and the 45%, must be crushed.
On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
And this is the nub - quite likely zero, just like UKIP in 2015. The BP are a different and one senses far more professional beast, and these are different times, but FPTP will continue to be a bummer for them.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.
The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.
Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
I bet you're one of those people who think the 48% in the UK who voted remain should just shut up and go away.
As it happens the only street stall I saw during the EU referendum was for Leave. It was about 200m from two of the most Rangers pubs in Glasgow, mind.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
Alyn and Deeside, Ashfield, Bolsover, Boston and Skegness, Carmathen West and Pembrokeshire South, Clwyd South, Delyn, Mansfield, Montgomeryshire, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Thurrock, Torfaen, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham and Ynys Mon according to Electoral Calculus will all go Brexit Party based on tonight's Survation poll.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...
Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
Like UKIP the BXP vote is pretty evenly spread, with a high floor but low ceiling. I think they won't win a single seat under FPTP.
I think the Tories will gain and Labour lose from the Parliamentary shenanigans. I've put down in prior threads that I expect if this continues the Tories will be on or about 40% by the end of October [especially after Tory Conference] and will not be hurt by a Labour caused extension.
Survation goes against this. We'll see what happens yet to come but I still stand by my original thoughts.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
Giving Brexit Party voters what they want only works if Brexit Party voters are transactional. But they aren't. They are rebelling against post-modernity, atomisation and late Capitalism. None of which are going anywhere. Brexit can never happen in political terms because it would involve exiting this piece of spacetime and Brexit Party voters exiting their anger which they enjoy. The Brexit Party is going nowhere.
Is there any change figure for that Best PM? 46-26 while bad, doesn't seem as bad for Jezza...
Unfortunately not giving other options (Ms. Swinson, Mr. Farage most likely although one or more of the expelled would bring colour to it) gives a bit of a false sheen to both of their scores.
Misleading, it was a poll across all 13 seats not individual seats and just used one headline voteshare
How many seats do you think they'd hold on a average 30% voteshare?
Uns would see Berwickshire as close as 2015, mundells seat within 1% and aberdeenshire within 3 or 4%, banff and Aberdeen south probably the bext two nearest but a good 8% shy
It's a small sample size of 887, about 70 voters per constituency, haven't looked at how many weighted etc
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.
The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.
Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
I bet you're one of those people who think the 48% in the UK who voted remain should just shut up and go away.
As it happens the only street stall I saw during the EU referendum was for Leave. It was about 200m from two of the most Rangers pubs in Glasgow, mind.
Just pointing out some facts, facts which to some on here are uncomfortable because it doesn't feed into the weird narrative of Scotland being some distant, unicorn-grazing oasis away from the Brexit debate.
I think the Tories will gain and Labour lose from the Parliamentary shenanigans. I've put down in prior threads that I expect if this continues the Tories will be on or about 40% by the end of October [especially after Tory Conference] and will not be hurt by a Labour caused extension.
Survation goes against this. We'll see what happens yet to come but I still stand by my original thoughts.
Survation of course was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead at the last general election so if the Tories have a 5% lead with Survation they will likely lead more with other pollsters.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
Let me summarise that article: to be a true Conservative you must accept the following without question.
Indeed. Anyone quoting Breitbart has lost the plot.
You back on the Soubry juice ?
If anti-Semitism, white nationalism, and outright fabrication is your flavour, Breitbart is should be your go-to "news" site. If not, well, people might get the wrong ideas about you when you repost its articles.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
Giving Brexit Party voters what they want only works if Brexit Party voters are transactional. But they aren't. They are rebelling against post-modernity, atomisation and late Capitalism. None of which are going anywhere. Brexit can never happen in political terms because it would involve exiting this piece of spacetime and Brexit Party voters exiting their anger which they enjoy. The Brexit Party is going nowhere.
That some would be going nowhere was a given. But they had reduced in the polls and the not entire Boris strategy relies on them. He's obviously scared they won't forgive him for a delay, even though some on here think they would in a post October election, but if he's already struggling to hold them, the only thing keeping him in office is...Jeremy Corbyn not wanting to put him down yet.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...
Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
Giving Brexit Party voters what they want only works if Brexit Party voters are transactional. But they aren't. They are rebelling against post-modernity, atomisation and late Capitalism. None of which are going anywhere. Brexit can never happen in political terms because it would involve exiting this piece of spacetime and Brexit Party voters exiting their anger which they enjoy. The Brexit Party is going nowhere.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
We started IndyRef1 on 28% and ended up on 45%. We’re absolutely fine about starting IndyRef2 on 50%.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
38% of votes in Scotland in the EU ref went to Leave, despite a more or less non-existent Leave campaign there.
The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.
Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
I love how the 38% must be respected, but the 62%, and the 45%, must be crushed.
A false dichotomy - have I said the 62% or the 45% (?) should be crushed? No. BuT I am arguing that it needs to be recognised that Leave did receive votes in Scotland, granted not as many a percentage as in England, but still 2 in 5 Scottish voters.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Given latest indy poll in Scotland is 51% No 49% Remain would not be so sure about that
On a poll like that, it's too close to call, but FWIW I think Stuart is right. For good or for ill, Scotland's going.
No certainty about that at all, other than in the wishes of diehard Remainers who believe it is suitable punishment for English Leave voters
On tonight's poll Boris stays PM but needs the predicted 15 Brexit Party seats for a majority, so Labour's strategy does not remove Boris, it just leads to an even more rightwing and hard Brexit government while losing a predicted 44 Labour seats in the process
What seats are the Brexit Party going to win mate?
Alyn and Deeside, Ashfield, Bolsover, Boston and Skegness, Carmathen West and Pembrokeshire South, Clwyd South, Delyn, Mansfield, Montgomeryshire, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Thurrock, Torfaen, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham and Ynys Mon according to Electoral Calculus will all go Brexit Party based on tonight's Survation poll.
+3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.
Could just be margin of error stuff.
They are the BREXIT Party: they are *always* in the media. Day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out. Soon decade in, decade out.
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Mrs Foxy mootng today a move to Scotland, for much those reasons. Will have to dust off my volume of Burns.
Mrs Dickson banging on again about a move to London. Will have to dust off my flak jacket.
Your guide may be outdated. The blitz isn't so much of a concern. Do make sure to pack trousers, and also underpants, and more than one pair.
You may need temporary medication too as all your food may not be deep fried.
Additionally you'll need to adapt to the idea that if there's a penny change then holding the entire establishment to account until they pay isn't the norm.
Otherwise, and in fact more factually, I'm sure London would simply benefit from your and your good lady's presence.
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...
Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
While encouraging Labour voters to switch to Swinson (up to a point) is exactly what Boris and Farage need to do
I don't usually agree with williamglenn, but how can Boris be losing ground to the Brexit Party? He has fought as hard as he can to try to get no deal for them, but I guess they cannot abide weakness. It will do them no favours though - he's the only potential PM they have to root for who will seek no deal, will they truly abandon him and ensure it does not happen?
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
The game playing at Werstminster could end up leading to a mass switch of Con (and some Lab) to Brexit...
Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
Even if the Brexit Party is on 20%+ of the vote they won't win many seats as the don't have the ground campaign and resources to do so .
In the May era there was clearly a risk of Farage getting 35% and forming the next government. I believe that's unlikely in the Boris era. I think Farage can get up into the high 20s percent but Boris's tough talk and charisma should stop the Tory vote collapsing. Result: right and centre-right vote is royally split. Therefore encouraging Tory voters to switch to Farage is exactly what Corbyn and Swinson need to do.
Some stuff on twittwr from a journo I now can't find about a BXP tory election pact close to being sealed... FWIW
Comments
He had a window. It just closed.
People WANT a general election now though so I still think Remainers are playing with fire denying them one.
Every Tory candidate must sign a pledge, in blood if necessary, to leave the EU Deal or No Deal
Jezza looked quite sane and even statesman-like this week in comparison to Johnson.
FPTP makes it unlikely but I don't think you can rule it out...
The Brexit Party is there to stay in England, because Brexit is there to stay. You lot will be banging on about it in fifty years time. That’s why we’re offski.
Keep Boris on the pot.
Let him stew.
So Boris could still form a government with the Brexit Party and DUP or else Swinson would have the balance of power and likely refuse to back Corbyn as PM
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=29&LAB=24&LIB=18&Brexit=17&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
As I've said for the hundredth or so time, the threshold for brexit isn't 51% in a referendum, it's 30-ish% in a general election that puts a hard brexit party in power and we leave that way.
The Tories won’t be able to flush the turd quickly enough. And BoZo is so deluded, he’ll think this is the start of his Churchillian “Wilderness Years”.
"One week you're Stormzy, the next you wake up as Michael Barrymore."
Good line.
Remainers glad to see Boris losing his majority
Win win!
A chicken in every pot.
The Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the recent EU elections, admittedly a distant second but still creditable.
Scotland is hardly a Leaver-free zone, however much Sturgeon likes to portray it.
Who is that hapless backbencher that CON have put up? Panicky and incoherent. Mind, he was up against Emma Dent Coad, who was equally useless.
Barking. Totally barking.
Almost by accident Labour are stumbling into a winning strategy, even though their own polling is still crap. Winning being in the sense they can cripple the tories by preventing no deal.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1151925979474010112
Remainers are playing with fire and should be careful what they wish for...
Margin of error.
Let's see what the others say.
You can have that one for free, TSE.
I believe though that Britain is on the verge of entering another golden age. And that Boris Johnson is set to join Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher as one of the three great Conservative Prime Ministers of the last 100 years.
She's the one voice in the political arena that I will always listen to at present.
As it happens the only street stall I saw during the EU referendum was for Leave. It was about 200m from two of the most Rangers pubs in Glasgow, mind.
Polls are bollocks but I do think that clown Bunter Boris and his dimwit acolytes might succeed in concentrating the minds of broadly sane people.
‘Never Corbyns’ might think ‘I’ll vote for my nice Labour MP if she’s best placed to beat the Tories, otherwise happy to vote Liberal’.
I think some Tory rebels might do well too - Libs should stand down in places like Wantage etc IMO.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=29&LAB=24&LIB=18&Brexit=17&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Survation goes against this. We'll see what happens yet to come but I still stand by my original thoughts.
It's a small sample size of 887, about 70 voters per constituency, haven't looked at how many weighted etc
"Let's not right now"
"You've been asking to go out for dinner for ages, let's go! "
"Not until I've put out the fire you started in the kitchen!"
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1169979805737127941?s=21
You may need temporary medication too as all your food may not be deep fried.
Additionally you'll need to adapt to the idea that if there's a penny change then holding the entire establishment to account until they pay isn't the norm.
Otherwise, and in fact more factually, I'm sure London would simply benefit from your and your good lady's presence.
If this ever finishes what will we do !