If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
But, but, surely the Lords can filibuster it or something?
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
Maybe he will resign (As PM, not Leader of the Tories).
Corbyn will become PM but won't be able to get anything through whatsoever (No QS). I expect the sight of Corbyn walking into 10 Downing St before an inevitable GE will fill everyone vaguely right of centre with absolubte horror.
Am I one of the few who things an October election (probably the 15th as mooted) is just better?
Before the nights really start to draw in. Before the change back to GMT. November really is a bad time to have an election, though I recognise that a pre 31st October one is now looking unlikely.
Blame the FTPA. He tabled an election motion under the FTPA and Parliament chose to reject it.
It's a post FTPA confidence motion.
No, a post-FTPA confidence motion is a motion that says you have no confidence in the government, and the process after it passes is that someone else can try to form a government.
If he thinks the motion he was defeated on was equivalent of a VONC, he should resign and recommend either the Leader of the Opposition, who may well be able to form a government, or another Tory like Theresa May who had the confidence of the House from the same set of MPs for a long time before she resigned of her own volition.
No he should seek an election which has been an alternative for centuries now.
Not since the FTPA, and not always historically either.
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Benn bill means he must accept if Parliament wants him to.
The risk to Labour is if Cummings can repeat his trick of getting pissed off voters who normally dont vote to turn out. Harder to do the second time of course.
Big point this. The 3m. My GE hopes for GTTO rest to a large extent on these people not bothering this time.
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
Maybe he will resign (As PM, not Leader of the Tories).
Corbyn will become PM but won't be able to get anything through whatsoever (No QS). I expect the sight of Corbyn walking into 10 Downing St before an inevitable GE will fill everyone vaguely right of centre with absolubte horror.
If Boris intends to stick with his claim that he will not request an extension I suspect a resignation of the type you describe is on the cards.
At this point the opposition should just put Corbyn in and send him off to change the PD into Norway then pass it subject to a referendum. They've got the votes now with all those ex-Tories. Defuse the whole "get it over with" thing, make the *Tory* vote the one for keeping brexit indecision going forever.
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
The subsection of the electorate likely to be upset by it already have hard enough views. Predictions that the rest of the country would join them in indignation have often been made since 2016, and never come true.
At this point the opposition should just put Corbyn in and send him off to change the PD into Norway then pass it subject to a referendum. They've got the votes now with all those ex-Tories. Defuse the whole "get it over with" thing, make the *Tory* vote the one for keeping Brexit indecision going forever.
Don't be silly @edmundintokyo, noone is looking for a moderate way out. For 99% of twitter it's remain or die
*Edit - Note that is "subject to a referendum" which would work too at the moment and probably acceptable to the FBPE lot. Right now they don't care about that though, right now the game in town is to attempt to tank Johnson's poll ratings by making him sign the extension letter.
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Benn bill means he must accept if Parliament wants him to.
Only the extension, the EU can't demand an election as a condition. If Boris were to say there will be no election, the EU might decline to offer an extension at all.
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Benn bill means he must accept if Parliament wants him to.
Only the extension, the EU can't demand an election as a condition. If Boris were to say there will be no election, the EU might decline to offer an extension at all.
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
Agreed. Whilst the EU dictating GE timing will not stop Remainer MPs fawning over Brussels it will make it easier for Cummings to motivate voters for Boris.
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
The subsection of the electorate likely to be upset by it already have hard enough views. Predictions that the rest of the country would join them in indignation have often been made since 2016, and never come true.
The EU haven't tried to tell a member nation it must hold elections before
At this point the opposition should just put Corbyn in and send him off to change the PD into Norway then pass it subject to a referendum. They've got the votes now with all those ex-Tories. Defuse the whole "get it over with" thing, make the *Tory* vote the one for keeping Brexit indecision going forever.
Don't be silly @edmundintokyo, noone is looking for a moderate way out. For 99% of twitter it's remain or die
*Edit - Note that is "subject to a referendum" which would work too at the moment and probably acceptable to the FBPE lot. Right now they don't care about that though, right now the game in town is to attempt to tank Johnson's poll ratings by making him sign the extension letter.
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Benn bill means he must accept if Parliament wants him to.
Only the extension, the EU can't demand an election as a condition. If Boris were to say there will be no election, the EU might decline to offer an extension at all.
No, but they are working with Starmer who can force an election.
Resigning isn't the consequence of a confidence loss.
Of course it is, if you can't call an election. You don't just stay in the job until further notice.
Why not?
Because the House doesn't have confidence in you, and your sole claim to being Prime Minister rests in having the confidence of the House. Meanwhile there are several people who, given a chance to test it, *may* have the confidence of the House.
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
Would a Ken-Harriet dream ticket command the confidence of the house?
I appreciate BJ would hardly be expecting the Commission to chuck him a bone.. but this must hardly be welcome given the current legislative situation here..
At this point the opposition should just put Corbyn in and send him off to change the PD into Norway then pass it subject to a referendum. They've got the votes now with all those ex-Tories. Defuse the whole "get it over with" thing, make the *Tory* vote the one for keeping Brexit indecision going forever.
Don't be silly @edmundintokyo, noone is looking for a moderate way out. For 99% of twitter it's remain or die
*Edit - Note that is "subject to a referendum" which would work too at the moment and probably acceptable to the FBPE lot. Right now they don't care about that though, right now the game in town is to attempt to tank Johnson's poll ratings by making him sign the extension letter.
You are learning.
Slowly.
But you are learning.
That the game right now isn't really about leave or remain but trying to humiliate Johnson ?
I think this is the week when the Rees-Mogg magic truly died.
Believe it or not, he’s someone I used to respect, and i believe he was also respected across the House. Mhairi Black was even very complimentary about him.
If we must have Conservative MPs we should want them to be like Jo Johnson. The kind of people who are now voluntarily leaving the Conservative Party will reshape it and in due course the nation.
If we must have Labour MPs we should want them to be like Luciana Berger. The fact that today she's ended up in the Liberal Democrats simply due to institutional antisemeticism is appalling.
With our highly centralised democracy and FPTP Labour and Conservative parties are at least part of the social fabric and perhaps de facto organs of state. They are both in deep trouble with no sign ( outside Scotland ) of the free market generating a replacement.
Yes, this is exactly right. People have been making short termist decisions for three years. But what will happen is we will have a hard right party that is as against the EU as the SNP is against the UK, and a far left party completely hostile to anyone of the wrong tribe.
This is why it is so critical the Liberal Democrats do well at the next election.
Why doesn't Opposition vonc Boris now, take over govt, stop prorogation (why are we still proroguing anyway?), delay Brexit, and call GE on its terms?
Corbyn wont get the confidence of the house, hes terrified of being marginalized by a caretaker and Boris taking over as LOTO
Ken Clarke as caretaker leader seems a good answer to your objections.
And who will be in his cabinet? What programme of government will he be following? Boris will be LOTO, what is Corbyns position? Blackford loses his 3 questions, they go to Corbyn. Will HMQ appoint a leader just to pass am extension and call an election?
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Benn bill means he must accept if Parliament wants him to.
Only the extension, the EU can't demand an election as a condition. If Boris were to say there will be no election, the EU might decline to offer an extension at all.
I don’t think the EU would make such a demand.
It’s paywalled so I can’t see who the Telegraph is saying is responsible for the claim but as it’s “Brussels” it might be chaps in the bars near the Berlaymont - I very much doubt any official would be on the record saying that.
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Benn bill means he must accept if Parliament wants him to.
Only the extension, the EU can't demand an election as a condition. If Boris were to say there will be no election, the EU might decline to offer an extension at all.
I don’t think the EU would make such a demand.
I'm basing it on the article which says they will. I am dubious
This should be the death knell for an October election - no one is voting for it until an extension actually takes effect (not just the bill becoming law)
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
The subsection of the electorate likely to be upset by it already have hard enough views. Predictions that the rest of the country would join them in indignation have often been made since 2016, and never come true.
The EU haven't tried to tell a member nation it must hold elections before
We had all the same noises before March about how an extension request would have to have a strong justification like an election or second referendum.
Resigning isn't the consequence of a confidence loss.
Of course it is, if you can't call an election. You don't just stay in the job until further notice.
Why not?
Because the House doesn't have confidence in you, and your sole claim to being Prime Minister rests in having the confidence of the House. Meanwhile there are several people who, given a chance to test it, *may* have the confidence of the House.
If nobody clearly has confidence then the law is we have an election to sort it out. Let the several others either demonstrate a majority or agree to an election.
It’s paywalled so I can’t see who the Telegraph is saying is responsible for the claim but as it’s “Brussels” it might be chaps in the bars near the Berlaymont - I very much doubt any official would be on the record saying that.
Is it Bruno Waterfield because he has a senior EU source who says all kinds of really weird things - I think their relationship may involve mescaline.
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
If Boris loses on Monday, the EU making an extension consequential on an election being held after the offer hed be better off taking it off the table and telling the EU no election
Benn bill means he must accept if Parliament wants him to.
Only the extension, the EU can't demand an election as a condition. If Boris were to say there will be no election, the EU might decline to offer an extension at all.
I don’t think the EU would make such a demand.
It’s paywalled so I can’t see who the Telegraph is saying is responsible for the claim but as it’s “Brussels” it might be chaps in the bars near the Berlaymont - I very much doubt any official would be on the record saying that.
Perhaps it's a report phoned in by their erstwhile Brussels correspondent ?
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
The EU have negotiated a deal. A deal that is this far and no further. If you don't agree this deal then it will be a no-deal brexit. They have always been clear on this. They have not changed their stance at all.
There is no "overplaying the hand" there is no "once they realise that the UK means no-deal then the EU will capitulate", this is not a game of poker.
Why doesn't Opposition vonc Boris now, take over govt, stop prorogation (why are we still proroguing anyway?), delay Brexit, and call GE on its terms?
Corbyn wont get the confidence of the house, hes terrified of being marginalized by a caretaker and Boris taking over as LOTO
Ken Clarke as caretaker leader seems a good answer to your objections.
And who will be in his cabinet? What programme of government will he be following? Boris will be LOTO, what is Corbyns position? Blackford loses his 3 questions, they go to Corbyn. Will HMQ appoint a leader just to pass am extension and call an election?
Not HMQ's business. As far as the rest of the questions are concerned, they're all capable of being dealt with.
At this point the opposition should just put Corbyn in and send him off to change the PD into Norway then pass it subject to a referendum. They've got the votes now with all those ex-Tories. Defuse the whole "get it over with" thing, make the *Tory* vote the one for keeping brexit indecision going forever.
As I predicted at the start of year, the net effect of the crass dickheadery of the ERG will be either a softer Brexit (if they’re lucky) or No Brexit.
If nobody clearly has confidence then the law is we have an election to sort it out. Let the several others either demonstrate a majority or agree to an election.
Is the PM taking soundings to determine who may command a majority? Because that's what his job is, if he really thinks he's lost a confidence vote.
Of course he doesn't really think he's lost a confidence vote, it's just a powerplay.
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
And if he resigns one minute to eleven on the 31st October? The incoming PM - whoever that is - will have to cope with No Deal Brexit.
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
The subsection of the electorate likely to be upset by it already have hard enough views. Predictions that the rest of the country would join them in indignation have often been made since 2016, and never come true.
The EU haven't tried to tell a member nation it must hold elections before
Why doesn't Opposition vonc Boris now, take over govt, stop prorogation (why are we still proroguing anyway?), delay Brexit, and call GE on its terms?
Corbyn wont get the confidence of the house, hes terrified of being marginalized by a caretaker and Boris taking over as LOTO
Ken Clarke as caretaker leader seems a good answer to your objections.
And who will be in his cabinet? What programme of government will he be following? Boris will be LOTO, what is Corbyns position? Blackford loses his 3 questions, they go to Corbyn. Will HMQ appoint a leader just to pass am extension and call an election?
Not HMQ's business. As far as the rest of the questions are concerned, they're all capable of being dealt with.
As HMQ has to appoint him very much her business. Remember after 2010 election she needed assurances of the stability of the proposed government, she would need some idea of what is being proposed to appoint someone with no party as PM on the nod of a divided parliament. There are constitutional issues here.
The EUs position is odd, if it is a demand then they are overplaying their hand and the British electorate will be hardened against them. 'Who the hell do they think they are' mentality will creep in
The subsection of the electorate likely to be upset by it already have hard enough views. Predictions that the rest of the country would join them in indignation have often been made since 2016, and never come true.
The EU haven't tried to tell a member nation it must hold elections before
It’s paywalled so I can’t see who the Telegraph is saying is responsible for the claim but as it’s “Brussels” it might be chaps in the bars near the Berlaymont - I very much doubt any official would be on the record saying that.
Is it Bruno Waterfield because he has a senior EU source who says all kinds of really weird things - I think their relationship may involve mescaline.
It feels like Boris' best choice is to stay on for PM as long as possible, put as many populist bills forward between now and the last date he can, fight a legal challenge on not sending the latter, then resigning with an explosive resignation letter to HM at the last possible moment. Resigning as PM but staying on as Tory leader.
Am i being stupid, but whats stopping labour saying no again? Given the bill that basically says Boris MUST call an exention then he'd be forced to resign by his own words.
That is exactly the plan
Thats what i thought.
But what happens then?? Who the f-knows. corbyn gets to be PM I guess?
Who knows. Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
If nobody clearly has confidence then the law is we have an election to sort it out. Let the several others either demonstrate a majority or agree to an election.
Is the PM taking soundings to determine who may command a majority? Because that's what his job is, if he really thinks he's lost a confidence vote.
Of course he doesn't really think he's lost a confidence vote, it's just a powerplay.
If he's lost a confidence vote, the the FTPA says there's 14 days for another confidence vote. if not election time.
I don't think it's up the Boris to sort that out (ie the second confidence vote)
I think that's smart tactics from No 10, the Benn bill will have RA by that point so Corbyn (Not Starmer !) objection last time round is fulfilled. If Johnson doesn't get the 434 votes, he either goes long, resigns or awaits a VONC from Corbyn.
I think that's smart tactics from No 10, the Benn bill will have RA by that point so Corbyn (Not Starmer !) objection last time round is fulfilled. If Johnson doesn't get the 434 votes, he either goes long, resigns or awaits a VONC from Corbyn.
And corbyn can also just sit back and wait for Boris to have to grovel for an extention.
I think that's smart tactics from No 10, the Benn bill will have RA by that point so Corbyn (Not Starmer !) objection last time round is fulfilled. If Johnson doesn't get the 434 votes, he either goes long, resigns or awaits a VONC from Corbyn.
I think if he loses Monday, they try the one-line, simple majority thing
Can't see Boris resubmitting the WA. I think if there's no election before end October he'll resign and recommend to HMQ she invites Corbyn to form a government.
Re the Opposition fear that Boris wont follow the law, if they truly believe that that must VONC Monday knowing he will lose and be removed and be unable to break the law
This should be the death knell for an October election - no one is voting for it until an extension actually takes effect (not just the bill becoming law)
Cummings is leaving at the end of October (he’s delayed surgery to get Brexit done).....
This should be the death knell for an October election - no one is voting for it until an extension actually takes effect (not just the bill becoming law)
Cummings is leaving at the end of October (he’s delayed surgery to get Brexit done).....
This should be the death knell for an October election - no one is voting for it until an extension actually takes effect (not just the bill becoming law)
Re the Opposition fear that Boris wont follow the law, if they truly believe that that must VONC Monday knowing he will lose and be removed and be unable to break the law
Well quite. It's got nothing to do with a lack of trust in him unless you're being deliberately thick or deliberately stupid.
The EU will extend anyway even if he doesn't send any letter I reckon.
Re the Opposition fear that Boris wont follow the law, if they truly believe that that must VONC Monday knowing he will lose and be removed and be unable to break the law
There's a legitimate problem that there are also potential shenanigans regarding getting a replacement in place and/or scheduling an election, which is a process that his team has previously suggested they will abuse.
Re the Opposition fear that Boris wont follow the law, if they truly believe that that must VONC Monday knowing he will lose and be removed and be unable to break the law
There's a legitimate problem that there are also potential shenanigans regarding getting a replacement in place and/or scheduling an election, which is a process that his team has previously suggested they will abuse.
So long as he is PM he's subject to the law of the land election period or not.
Comments
Oh.
Corbyn will become PM but won't be able to get anything through whatsoever (No QS). I expect the sight of Corbyn walking into 10 Downing St before an inevitable GE will fill everyone vaguely right of centre with absolubte horror.
Before the nights really start to draw in. Before the change back to GMT.
November really is a bad time to have an election, though I recognise that a pre 31st October one is now looking unlikely.
£10 ono
Which is why the plan was get this Act past then move on to stage 2 (whatever that is).
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1169625817481134081?s=20
28th November and 5th December just about make sense but the others don't
*Edit - Note that is "subject to a referendum" which would work too at the moment and probably acceptable to the FBPE lot. Right now they don't care about that though, right now the game in town is to attempt to tank Johnson's poll ratings by making him sign the extension letter.
Maybe Corbyn gets first try and fails (Swinson against). Then maybe Ken Clarke?
Slowly.
But you are learning.
Would a Ken-Harriet dream ticket command the confidence of the house?
319 or so required?
It might you know.
It just might.
I’m astonished at how he’s turned out.
This is why it is so critical the Liberal Democrats do well at the next election.
It’s about securing Benn AND humiliating the odious Johnson. Two birds, one stone.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1169614147811758080?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1169614147811758080&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49590838
Day 5 might be a tough sell at this point.
There is no "overplaying the hand" there is no "once they realise that the UK means no-deal then the EU will capitulate", this is not a game of poker.
Why haven't you got this yet?
Christ it is cold here.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1169630802096906240
Total fucking nobs.
Of course he doesn't really think he's lost a confidence vote, it's just a powerplay.
And how Boris and Cummins would laugh......
Therefore conceivably Boris could try and VONC himself and then prorogue parliament therefore preventing another government from being formed?
I don't think it's up the Boris to sort that out (ie the second confidence vote)
If Johnson doesn't get the 434 votes, he either goes long, resigns or awaits a VONC from Corbyn.
The story is hardly surprising. That it’s in the Telegraph is.
The EU will extend anyway even if he doesn't send any letter I reckon.
before flat out denying it.
"You can't trust BoZo..."