politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Johnson’s resignation will only reinforce the doubts that B

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Johnson’s resignation will only reinforce the doubts that Boris Johnson is only interested in himself and not the national interest

Jo Johnson was a remainer who resigned from Theresa May’s Government in Nov 2018 saying no deal would “inflict untold damage” on the country.

Read the full story here

Gabs2

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Second. You can't trust BoJo.

GIN1138

Third like Jezza in the election

eek

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Gabs2

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

Anabobazina

You just can’t trust Boris Johnson.

Pulpstar

Imagine polling 7 PTS behind this shower as one of the big two parties for the last hundred years

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1169595705582858241

williamglenn

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

And those attacks will come from both sides.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1154041832621297665?s=21

blueblue

Barely anyone knows who Jo Johnson is, anyway. When people bump into him in the corridor, they probably say "You're looking well, Boris. Lost a bit of weight?"

eek

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it's priced in - I really don't think it is. After 6 weeks of all parties using the phrase with multiple stories and examples things may look very different.

CarlottaVance

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it will be neutral?

The public already think by a factor of 2:1 that Johnson is in it for himself rather than the country - as Corbyn proves bad reputations can get worse.

blueblue

Anabobazina said:

You just can’t trust Boris Johnson.

But you can trust Corbyn ... to fuck the country with loony left policies!

Scrapheap_as_was

pobwas

Scott_P

Having been caught out once already...

https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1169596005127544832

El_Capitano

FPT

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

Alanbrooke said:

Id rather wait until the campaign starts. The LD risk is if Brexit is kicked in to the long grass the immediacy of No Deal has gone. So has the LDs biggest issue.

The LDs can always underperform, true, it's one of the constant themes of British politics. But this time I sense could be different.

Long grass? Not sure a 3 month extension counts as that.

Id say the problem for the LDs is their perennial one. There just isnt a big enough demos for a centrist party under FPTP. They either need to replace Labour or the Tories and as ever they are getting pulled in 2 directions,

Indeed. But I'm not sure this argument applies when both Labour and Tories have willingly vacated not just the centre ground but also several miles either side of it.

What has struck me over the last few days is that many of our local Conservative councillors have just stopped tweeting about national issues. Usually there's a chorus of retweets of the latest national attack lines. Now - nothing. These are the most dedicated of activists and, from here, it looks like they're ashamed of their party.

IanB2

Meanwhile three local by-elections today.

Tory defence in Coventry. On paper normally safe.

Ind defence in Eden, Cumbria. Probably an Ind hold, no LD candidate

Labour defence in Hull. Again on paper very safe.

GIN1138

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it's priced in - I really don't think it is. After 6 weeks of all parties using the phrase with multiple stories and examples things may look very different.

Labours entire 2008 mayoral campaign was based on "you can't trust Boris" "Boris is evil" "Boris will kill your first born" etc.

When you think of some of Toynbee's anti-Boris pieces in 2008 barely anything has changed in 11 years.

Now of course, the attack lines could be more damaging for Boris in 2019 than they were in 2008 but somehow Boris has that "teflon" feel of a Blair.

tpfkar

Boris is so bad he is making Corbyn look like prime ministerial material.
That is some achievement.
He also offers the quickest way to restore Theresa May's reputation and is doing a fine job at that to date.

Gabs2

williamglenn said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

And those attacks will come from both sides.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1154041832621297665?s=21

If you look at the Brexit Party's Twitter feed this morning it is all attacks on Labour and offering support for Boris going for No Deal.

blueblue

El_Capitano said:

FPT

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

Alanbrooke said:

Id rather wait until the campaign starts. The LD risk is if Brexit is kicked in to the long grass the immediacy of No Deal has gone. So has the LDs biggest issue.

The LDs can always underperform, true, it's one of the constant themes of British politics. But this time I sense could be different.

Long grass? Not sure a 3 month extension counts as that.

Id say the problem for the LDs is their perennial one. There just isnt a big enough demos for a centrist party under FPTP. They either need to replace Labour or the Tories and as ever they are getting pulled in 2 directions,

Indeed. But I'm not sure this argument applies when both Labour and Tories have willingly vacated not just the centre ground but also several miles either side of it.

What has struck me over the last few days is that many of our local Conservative councillors have just stopped tweeting about national issues. Usually there's a chorus of retweets of the latest national attack lines. Now - nothing. These are the most dedicated of activists and, from here, it looks like they're ashamed of their party.

Ashamed of which side? The leadership who are pursuing the only strategy that unifies the right-wing vote, or the internal rebels who are handing the country over to Corbyn? Because as a Tory voter, it's the latter who are causing the greatest shame from my perspective.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/1169596452068352000?s=20

Foxy

GIN1138 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it's priced in - I really don't think it is. After 6 weeks of all parties using the phrase with multiple stories and examples things may look very different.

Labours entire 2008 mayoral campaign was based on "you can't trust Boris" "Boris is evil" "Boris will kill your first born" etc.

When you think of some of Toynbee's anti-Boris pieces in 2008 barely anything has changed in 11 years.

Now of course, the attack lines could be more damaging for Boris in 2019 than they were in 2008 but somehow Boris has that "teflon" feel of a Blair.

Get real! at the moment BoZo is a shit magnet.

His dog will ask to be rehomed in Battersea shortly...

ab195

If I was Boris I’d be starting to think of a bonfire night election.

anothernick

blueblue said:

Anabobazina said:

You just can’t trust Boris Johnson.

But you can trust Corbyn ... to fuck the country with loony left policies!

Exactly - you might not like Corbyn or his policies but he IS a man of his word and really does believe in what he is saying.

You can't trust Boris but you know where you are with Jezza.

El_Capitano

blueblue said:

El_Capitano said:

FPT

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

Alanbrooke said:

Id rather wait until the campaign starts. The LD risk is if Brexit is kicked in to the long grass the immediacy of No Deal has gone. So has the LDs biggest issue.

The LDs can always underperform, true, it's one of the constant themes of British politics. But this time I sense could be different.

Long grass? Not sure a 3 month extension counts as that.

Id say the problem for the LDs is their perennial one. There just isnt a big enough demos for a centrist party under FPTP. They either need to replace Labour or the Tories and as ever they are getting pulled in 2 directions,

Indeed. But I'm not sure this argument applies when both Labour and Tories have willingly vacated not just the centre ground but also several miles either side of it.

What has struck me over the last few days is that many of our local Conservative councillors have just stopped tweeting about national issues. Usually there's a chorus of retweets of the latest national attack lines. Now - nothing. These are the most dedicated of activists and, from here, it looks like they're ashamed of their party.

Ashamed of which side? The leadership who are pursuing the only strategy that unifies the right-wing vote, or the internal rebels who are handing the country over to Corbyn? Because as a Tory voter, it's the latter who are causing the greatest shame from my perspective.

I'm presuming the former: centrist Conservatives have been in the ascendant in Oxfordshire ever since the execrable Keith Mitchell was defenestrated a few years ago. But I don't know - all I can see is that several of them have stopped tweeting.

blueblue

anothernick said:

blueblue said:

Anabobazina said:

You just can’t trust Boris Johnson.

But you can trust Corbyn ... to fuck the country with loony left policies!

Exactly - you might not like Corbyn or his policies but he IS a man of his word and really does believe in what he is saying.

You can't trust Boris but you know where you are with Jezza.

Which is why so many people will never vote Labour with Corbyn in charge!

eek

Gabs2 said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

And those attacks will come from both sides.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1154041832621297665?s=21

If you look at the Brexit Party's Twitter feed this morning it is all attacks on Labour and offering support for Boris going for No Deal.

If Boris goes for No deal to pacify BXP he loses votes from those hoping he leaves with a deal.

Unless of cause it's a trick as Boris can't be trusted.

Artist

If things are going so bad for the Tories now surely Labour would benefit from an election ASAP?

El_Capitano

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1169583632014610434

Theuniondivvie

Steve Smith out.

No ball.

Cummings has wargamed this.

Nigelb

Smith - known for his weakness in the 140s - is out... to a no ball.

Double century almost certain.

williamglenn

Gabs2 said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

And those attacks will come from both sides.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1154041832621297665?s=21

If you look at the Brexit Party's Twitter feed this morning it is all attacks on Labour and offering support for Boris going for No Deal.

The same trick the tabloids use: build ‘em up and knock ‘em down. Boris has not and will not commit to No Deal. They’re setting him up to look shifty to Brexit supporters.

Gallowgate

IanB2 said:

Meanwhile three local by-elections today.

Tory defence in Coventry. On paper normally safe.

Ind defence in Eden, Cumbria. Probably an Ind hold, no LD candidate

Labour defence in Hull. Again on paper very safe.

Wainbody in Coventry could be a good indication of how well the traditional middle class Tory vote is holding up in the Midlands.

I note the Brexit Party are standing.

OblitusSumMe

I think that Hanbury Strategy poll is a very plausible worst-case scenario. Boris Johnson wins a majority for no deal on less than one-third of the votes cast.

Gabs2

CarlottaVance said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it will be neutral?

The public already think by a factor of 2:1 that Johnson is in it for himself rather than the country - as Corbyn proves bad reputations can get worse.

If Boris gets 30-35% of the country he wins the election, which is entirely in line with the 2:1 split. The position of that third of voters is that he might be in it for himself but will still do what they want. Not wilting in front of his brother and refusing to follow the law to request an extension just helps him with those voters.

We need to separate how we want the world to work from what actually happens. I am appalled as anyone at the trashing of our civil norms but I just don't think it matters in the short term. I think Boris will get a small majority.

IanB2

blueblue said:

Anabobazina said:

You just can’t trust Boris Johnson.

But you can trust Corbyn ... to fuck the country with loony left policies!

Hence the Conservatives should have stuck to being conservative

RochdalePioneers

Thoughts:
1. This series of The Thick of It is Armando Iannouchi's best yet. Dom Cummings a perfect replacement for the departed Malcolm Tucker, and the recasting of Ben Swain with Boris Johnson a mark of absolute genius
2. Corbyn should VONC on Monday. The reson for not doing so this week was that the government could call an election in November and let us crash out if an alternative government not agreed. No longer valid - No Deal will be illegal, and parliament is set to be prorogued.
3. So what happens if the Commons defeats Johnson? He can't win a vote for an election. He doesn't have 14 days to use the FTPA to get one having prorogued. Does the government remain in place not commanding the confidence of the House through prorogation?
4. Why do I keep seeing parallels to the Donitz led government of May 1945? In office, with titles running paper departments, but without the power to do anything other than squabble internally and reorganise the paper clips
5. Has Jo Johnson quit as an MP immediately and taken the Chiltern Hundreds? Or just announced that he will quit at the election?

Nigel_Foremain

Artist said:

If things are going so bad for the Tories now surely Labour would benefit from an election ASAP?

I thought that had been explained ad nauseam

Gabs2

williamglenn said:

Gabs2 said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

And those attacks will come from both sides.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1154041832621297665?s=21

If you look at the Brexit Party's Twitter feed this morning it is all attacks on Labour and offering support for Boris going for No Deal.

The same trick the tabloids use: build ‘em up and knock ‘em down. Boris has not and will not commit to No Deal. They’re setting him up to look shifty to Brexit supporters.

But they can only do that if Boris backs another "betrayal" deal that is concrete. The betrayal narrative is very hard to do if Boris keeps on pushing for a unicorn deal minus the backstop that doesn't actually exist. And refusal to ask for an extension protects him further from that narrative.

dyedwoolie

El_Capitano said:

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1169583632014610434

Funny tinges for Jo!
Heidi Allen's big reveal will get Sunil hot under the collar

JBriskinindyref2

How's TSE managing these long threads from Old Trafford ?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1169599061520986113

Foxy

El_Capitano said:

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1169583632014610434

I have slightly lost count. Are the LDs going to be at double their 2017 numbers yet, or do we have to wait for Christmas?

IanB2

Foxy said:

GIN1138 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it's priced in - I really don't think it is. After 6 weeks of all parties using the phrase with multiple stories and examples things may look very different.

Labours entire 2008 mayoral campaign was based on "you can't trust Boris" "Boris is evil" "Boris will kill your first born" etc.

When you think of some of Toynbee's anti-Boris pieces in 2008 barely anything has changed in 11 years.

Now of course, the attack lines could be more damaging for Boris in 2019 than they were in 2008 but somehow Boris has that "teflon" feel of a Blair.

Get real! at the moment BoZo is a shit magnet.

His dog will ask to be rehomed in Battersea shortly...

If you knew anything about dogs, you’d see the contradiction there.

Nigel_Foremain

Just picked up this news. No doubt HYUFD will say it is a master stroke form the Boris family, and is actually designed to ensure Boris will achieve the landslide that his total brilliance deserves

Gabs2

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

And those attacks will come from both sides.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1154041832621297665?s=21

If you look at the Brexit Party's Twitter feed this morning it is all attacks on Labour and offering support for Boris going for No Deal.

If Boris goes for No deal to pacify BXP he loses votes from those hoping he leaves with a deal.

Unless of cause it's a trick as Boris can't be trusted.

He just needs to maintain his current line of Leave either with a much better deal or else no deal.

edmundintokyo

Jojo is the family member who doesn't say much during the whole series and just pops up occasionally, I reckon he's gonna randomly end up on the Iron Throne

moonshine

Right I’m signing out for a while. Lots of smoke and not much light in these pages at the moment. Thanks all.

blueblue

It'll be interesting to see the polls this weekend. If Boris is still leading - after a week like this - then the opposition really is fucked.

IanB2

Nigel_Foremain said:

Just picked up this news. No doubt HYUFD will say it is a master stroke form the Boris family, and is actually designed to ensure Boris will achieve the landslide that his total brilliance deserves

Just a flesh wound...

TheScreamingEagles

JBriskinindyref2 said:

How's TSE managing these long threads from Old Trafford ?

I can multi task from my iPhone and iPad.

Hurrah for the lunch break.

Sometimes I have these threads written in advance and update them with events.

148grss

Gabs2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it will be neutral?

The public already think by a factor of 2:1 that Johnson is in it for himself rather than the country - as Corbyn proves bad reputations can get worse.

If Boris gets 30-35% of the country he wins the election, which is entirely in line with the 2:1 split. The position of that third of voters is that he might be in it for himself but will still do what they want. Not wilting in front of his brother and refusing to follow the law to request an extension just helps him with those voters.

We need to separate how we want the world to work from what actually happens. I am appalled as anyone at the trashing of our civil norms but I just don't think it matters in the short term. I think Boris will get a small majority.

There is easily a situation where Johnson gets 30-35% of the vote but doesn't get a governable number of seats. All the other parties (bar BXP and NI parties) cannot be seen to prop up Conservatives, let alone Johnson. They can be seen as moderating Corbyn.

DougSeal

Nigel_Foremain said:

Just picked up this news. No doubt HYUFD will say it is a master stroke form the Boris family, and is actually designed to ensure Boris will achieve the landslide that his total brilliance deserves

I'm relatively new here, am I correct in saying that @HYUFD is a member of the Conservative Party?

GIN1138

Foxy said:

GIN1138 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it's priced in - I really don't think it is. After 6 weeks of all parties using the phrase with multiple stories and examples things may look very different.

Labours entire 2008 mayoral campaign was based on "you can't trust Boris" "Boris is evil" "Boris will kill your first born" etc.

When you think of some of Toynbee's anti-Boris pieces in 2008 barely anything has changed in 11 years.

Now of course, the attack lines could be more damaging for Boris in 2019 than they were in 2008 but somehow Boris has that "teflon" feel of a Blair.

Get real! at the moment BoZo is a shit magnet.

His dog will ask to be rehomed in Battersea shortly...

So why are polls consistently showing the Conseravtives with majority winning leads?

HYUFD

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

eek

blueblue said:

It'll be interesting to see the polls this weekend. If Boris is still leading - after a week like this - then the opposition really is fucked.

It's still the holiday season. The week after next or even the week after that will be more accurate than this weeks polls.

Scott_P

edmundintokyo said:

Jojo is the family member who doesn't say much during the whole series and just pops up occasionally, I reckon he's gonna randomly end up on the Iron Throne

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1169598148374908929

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1169598467808927744

CarlottaVance

I’m not sure this is quite “priced in” and no doubt will be explored more in a GE campaign:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7198455/all-of-boris-johnsons-women-a-rundown-of-the-affairs-flings-and-love-children-left-in-the-former-foreign-secretarys-wake/

HYUFD

Supplementary polling questions on Brexit also great for Boris.

Voters oppose further extension with both the latest Yougov and Survation polls and 52% of voters back Boris plan for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop with Survation too

Nigel_Foremain

IanB2 said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Just picked up this news. No doubt HYUFD will say it is a master stroke form the Boris family, and is actually designed to ensure Boris will achieve the landslide that his total brilliance deserves

Just a flesh wound...

What are you going to do, bleed all over me?

DougSeal

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

That's two "diehard remainer"'s and one "will of the people" in one post. Good going!

dyedwoolie

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

Putting him in government was a stupid move, he should have known Jo wouldn't stomach his approach to Brexit

GIN1138

moonshine said:

Right I’m signing out for a while. Lots of smoke and not much light in these pages at the moment. Thanks all.

We're all just waiting for Nicola to tell us what's happening now.

DougSeal

HYUFD said:

Supplementary polling questions on Brexit also great for Boris.

Voters oppose further extension with both the latest Yougov and Survation polls and 52% of voters back Boris plan for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop with Survation too

99% of voters back winning the lottery and that has about as much chance of happening for any of them.

ab195

A one clause Bill is a good get out for Corbyn isn’t it? Seek to amend the date to November and then (if the SNP want to go sooner) lose the amendment. He supports third reading can can say “I tried chaps but was beaten by those evil Scots”.

The bit I struggle to believe is the SNP enabling the Bill. They must really think there’s a benefit in outflanking Corbyn and having an earlier election to bolster Scottish seats if they’re will to be seen voting with the baby eaters. Worst case it gives rise to a strong Tory Gvt and it’s the 1979 vote of no confidence all over again.

Peter_the_Punter

Sorry, just catching up on the news. Has Jo Johnson resigned?

What from...Parliament, the Conservative Party, or just the family?

edmundintokyo

DougSeal said:

I'm relatively new here, am I correct in saying that @HYUFD is a member of the Conservative Party?

Hard to say, may be part of a LARP

dixiedean

This election will turn on the level, or lack of tactical voting. 35% could win a healthy majority or a dismal defeat. We'll see.

Scott_P

ab195 said:

The bit I struggle to believe is the SNP enabling the Bill. They must really think there’s a benefit in outflanking Corbyn and having an earlier election to bolster Scottish seats if they’re will to be seen voting with the baby eaters. Worst case it gives rise to a strong Tory Gvt and it’s the 1979 vote of no confidence all over again.

There are 2 reasons the SNP want an early election

1. Avoid the court case
2. A BoZo win is their best shot at Indy

El_Capitano

GIN1138 said:

Foxy said:

GIN1138 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it's priced in - I really don't think it is. After 6 weeks of all parties using the phrase with multiple stories and examples things may look very different.

Labours entire 2008 mayoral campaign was based on "you can't trust Boris" "Boris is evil" "Boris will kill your first born" etc.

When you think of some of Toynbee's anti-Boris pieces in 2008 barely anything has changed in 11 years.

Now of course, the attack lines could be more damaging for Boris in 2019 than they were in 2008 but somehow Boris has that "teflon" feel of a Blair.

Get real! at the moment BoZo is a shit magnet.

His dog will ask to be rehomed in Battersea shortly...

So why are polls consistently showing the Conseravtives with majority winning leads?

Pedantry maybe, but if you have a machine that can convincingly convert polling percentages into seat numbers, then you could clean up - because Baxter is bust and Flavible is untested.

If you don't, then "majority winning" is just supposition.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

CarlottaVance said:

I’m not sure this is quite “priced in” and no doubt will be explored more in a GE campaign:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7198455/all-of-boris-johnsons-women-a-rundown-of-the-affairs-flings-and-love-children-left-in-the-former-foreign-secretarys-wake/

Also, leaving your wife (because you were cheating on her yet again) when she's being treated for cancer.

He's a class act.

blueblue

eek said:

blueblue said:

It'll be interesting to see the polls this weekend. If Boris is still leading - after a week like this - then the opposition really is fucked.

It's still the holiday season. The week after next or even the week after that will be more accurate than this weeks polls.

We'll see - I'm predicting his numbers will dip in the short term but hold up overall. I'm bloody furious at the bashing he's taken from his own side this week and my support for him has risen from lukewarm to come-hell-or-high-water levels.

Philip_Thompson

Scott_P said:

ab195 said:

The bit I struggle to believe is the SNP enabling the Bill. They must really think there’s a benefit in outflanking Corbyn and having an earlier election to bolster Scottish seats if they’re will to be seen voting with the baby eaters. Worst case it gives rise to a strong Tory Gvt and it’s the 1979 vote of no confidence all over again.

There are 2 reasons the SNP want an early election

1. Avoid the court case
2. A BoZo win is their best shot at Indy

Be a glorious day to be rid of the Scots and the EU simultaneously.

El_Capitano

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

That's two "diehard remainer"'s and one "will of the people" in one post. Good going!

And no punctuation for bonus points. Needs a few gratuitous percentages, though.

IanB2

dyedwoolie said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

Putting him in government was a stupid move, he should have known Jo wouldn't stomach his approach to Brexit

Its not clear that Bozo ever had a thought through approach to Brexit. He may really have believed that his charisma and personality were all it would take to get the EU to offer a new deal.

GIN1138

CarlottaVance said:

I’m not sure this is quite “priced in” and no doubt will be explored more in a GE campaign:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7198455/all-of-boris-johnsons-women-a-rundown-of-the-affairs-flings-and-love-children-left-in-the-former-foreign-secretarys-wake/

That Boris is a rascal.

Nigel_Foremain

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

This one is even better than some of your previous masterpieces. How can you even try and spin this as something positive, it is PR disaster for Johnson.

Boris is such a first class wanker and liar that he cannot even retain the loyalty of his brother. I wonder when Johnson senior will disown him!

HYUFD

148grss said:

Gabs2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Good try but "Boris can't be trusted"

Everyone knows that already though so it is priced in. The question is whether this will somehow make it worse.

You think it will be neutral?

The public already think by a factor of 2:1 that Johnson is in it for himself rather than the country - as Corbyn proves bad reputations can get worse.

If Boris gets 30-35% of the country he wins the election, which is entirely in line with the 2:1 split. The position of that third of voters is that he might be in it for himself but will still do what they want. Not wilting in front of his brother and refusing to follow the law to request an extension just helps him with those voters.

We need to separate how we want the world to work from what actually happens. I am appalled as anyone at the trashing of our civil norms but I just don't think it matters in the short term. I think Boris will get a small majority.

There is easily a situation where Johnson gets 30-35% of the vote but doesn't get a governable number of seats. All the other parties (bar BXP and NI parties) cannot be seen to prop up Conservatives, let alone Johnson. They can be seen as moderating Corbyn.

Boris gets a Tory majority of over 40 with Hanbury today and Swinson has made clear under no circumstances whatsoever will she allow Corbyn to become PM

CarlottaVance

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

“Take on his own brother”?

He tried to talk him out of it!

eristdoof

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sorry, just catching up on the news. Has Jo Johnson resigned?

What from...Parliament, the Conservative Party, or just the family?

Parliament. He will not be standing as the Conservative candidate for Orpington.

Roger

Gabs2 said:

I am not sure right wingers will feel this way. Jo Johnson knew his brother's do or die push, so his flip flopping from supporting May to resigning to supporting Boris to resigning makes him look like the untrustworthy one.

Uncle Fester meets Lurch

Nigel_Foremain

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

That's two "diehard remainer"'s and one "will of the people" in one post. Good going!

It is one of his best (most ludicrous) posts to date. I wonder whether there will be a PB Comical Ali of The Year Award? Nominations please.

Scott_P

IanB2 said:

He may really have believed that his charisma and personality were all it would take to get the EU to offer a new deal.

I think it has been his experience that they were all that were required to get people to offer him whatever he wanted.

DougSeal

Nigel_Foremain said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

That's two "diehard remainer"'s and one "will of the people" in one post. Good going!

It is one of his best (most ludicrous) posts to date. I wonder whether there will be a PB Comical Ali of The Year Award? Nominations please.

I'd bet on him but who would bet against?

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

How's TSE managing these long threads from Old Trafford ?

I can multi task from my iPhone and iPad.

Hurrah for the lunch break.

Sometimes I have these threads written in advance and update them with events.

You can't have written this one in advance! Unless you're in touch with Mystic Meg.

kle4

I've always been dismissive of the argument that a new referendum was anti democratic, even when I thought it was a terrible idea, but did someone really say an attempt to call a GE was an attempt to suspend democracy, as reported on the BBC?

I may need a moment to reflect on that.

ab195

Scott_P said:

ab195 said:

The bit I struggle to believe is the SNP enabling the Bill. They must really think there’s a benefit in outflanking Corbyn and having an earlier election to bolster Scottish seats if they’re will to be seen voting with the baby eaters. Worst case it gives rise to a strong Tory Gvt and it’s the 1979 vote of no confidence all over again.

There are 2 reasons the SNP want an early election

1. Avoid the court case
2. A BoZo win is their best shot at Indy

High stakes though, isn’t it? Doing what Boris wants. But then I suppose if they double down they can just make Corbyn look like a muppet and say they are being the grownup opposition.

HYUFD

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

This one is even better than some of your previous masterpieces. How can you even try and spin this as something positive, it is PR disaster for Johnson.

Boris is such a first class wanker and liar that he cannot even retain the loyalty of his brother. I wonder when Johnson senior will disown him!

No, half the Johnson family voted Remain and it is clear Jo is a diehard Remainer who refused to accept the will of the people.

To reassure Leavers it is great news for Boris that even if it costs his brother his political career Boris will not back down from taking on the diehard Remainer traitors and Corbyn who refuse to respect the Leave vote

kle4

Nigel_Foremain said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

That's two "diehard remainer"'s and one "will of the people" in one post. Good going!

It is one of his best (most ludicrous) posts to date. I wonder whether there will be a PB Comical Ali of The Year Award? Nominations please.

He could get the last laugh though.

Scott_P

Nigel_Foremain said:

I wonder when Johnson senior will disown him!

Seen on Twitter

BoZo's Dad has resigned as his father, and defected to the Milibands

blueblue

CarlottaVance said:

I’m not sure this is quite “priced in” and no doubt will be explored more in a GE campaign:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7198455/all-of-boris-johnsons-women-a-rundown-of-the-affairs-flings-and-love-children-left-in-the-former-foreign-secretarys-wake/

Completely wrong:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1489350/10-priapic-politicos.html

1: Viscount Palmerston

19th-century Liberal prime minister who fathered the last of several illegitimate children in his 70s. Disraeli refused to mention this in a campaign against him, saying that if the Tories advertised Palmerston's virility, "he will sweep the country".

DougSeal

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

This one is even better than some of your previous masterpieces. How can you even try and spin this as something positive, it is PR disaster for Johnson.

Boris is such a first class wanker and liar that he cannot even retain the loyalty of his brother. I wonder when Johnson senior will disown him!

No, half the Johnson family voted Remain and it is clear Jo is a diehard Remainer who refused to accept the will of the people.

To reassure Leavers it is great news for Boris that even if it costs his brother his political career Boris will not back down from taking on the diehard Remainer traitors and Corbyn who refuse to respect the Leave vote

"diehard remainer traitors".

U ok hun?

Anyway, Boris didn fire him, he resigned

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1169603331569963009

CarlottaVance

GIN1138 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I’m not sure this is quite “priced in” and no doubt will be explored more in a GE campaign:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7198455/all-of-boris-johnsons-women-a-rundown-of-the-affairs-flings-and-love-children-left-in-the-former-foreign-secretarys-wake/

That Boris is a rascal.

I suspect female voters - already less keen on BREXIT than male may reach a less forgiving conclusion. While we’ve had promiscuous philanderers as PM before, have we had one with such a “colourful” private life in the age of female emancipation or tabloid journalism?

Nigel_Foremain

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

This one is even better than some of your previous masterpieces. How can you even try and spin this as something positive, it is PR disaster for Johnson.

Boris is such a first class wanker and liar that he cannot even retain the loyalty of his brother. I wonder when Johnson senior will disown him!

No, half the Johnson family voted Remain and it is clear Jo is a diehard Remainer who refused to accept the will of the people.

To reassure Leavers it is great news for Boris that even if it costs his brother his political career Boris will not back down from taking on the diehard Remainer traitors and Corbyn who refuse to respect the Leave vote

The only traitors here are the cnuts like you that do the bidding of the worst PM in history who is in turn doing the bidding of Vladimir Putin. be careful about bandying around words that apply far more to extremely gullible self than other people.

MarqueeMark

eristdoof said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sorry, just catching up on the news. Has Jo Johnson resigned?

What from...Parliament, the Conservative Party, or just the family?

Parliament. He will not be standing as the Conservative candidate for Orpington.

There's going to be some cracking seats up for grabs for wannabe Tory MPs.....

And on the LibDems getting lots of defectors in seats they won't win in October - they risk having a decent night and still losing seats!

Gallowgate

Calm down everyone 😱

TheScreamingEagles

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

How's TSE managing these long threads from Old Trafford ?

I can multi task from my iPhone and iPad.

Hurrah for the lunch break.

Sometimes I have these threads written in advance and update them with events.

You can't have written this one in advance! Unless you're in touch with Mystic Meg.

I had planned to publish a guest thread on one of tonight's by elections (which will now go up at 5.30) but went for this one instead as this is what we will be talking about.

I had written a thread using the charts above about people not looking forward to No Deal and not trusting Boris to put the national interest first but when Jo Johnson quit I adapted the thread to what it is now.

DougSeal

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who voted for EUref2 and did not even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

It is good for Boris that he is showing he will take on the diehard Remainers trying to deny the will of the people even if one is his own brother

This one is even better than some of your previous masterpieces. How can you even try and spin this as something positive, it is PR disaster for Johnson.

Boris is such a first class wanker and liar that he cannot even retain the loyalty of his brother. I wonder when Johnson senior will disown him!

No, half the Johnson family voted Remain and it is clear Jo is a diehard Remainer who refused to accept the will of the people.

To reassure Leavers it is great news for Boris that even if it costs his brother his political career Boris will not back down from taking on the diehard Remainer traitors and Corbyn who refuse to respect the Leave vote

The only traitors here are the cnuts like you that do the bidding of the worst PM in history who is in turn doing the bidding of Vladimir Putin. be careful about bandying around words that apply far more to extremely gullible self than other people.

You do learn a lot from him though. I am "anti-British" apparently. Came as a shock I must say.