My rough guess on those numbers, Labour loses all seats bar Edinburgh South Lib Dems pick up Fife NE (obviously) Cons lose their 3 Lib Dem mass switch seats from 2017 plus at least 5 more?
My Tory baseline for the upcoming GE is 300, ie. what they had until yesterday, minus 10 in Scotland. Wales doesn't offer much scope, so they need approx 25 gains in England. This only needs a swing of 2-3% so right now Johnson looks like a shoo-in. Assuming that Farage doesn't stand in Johnson's way, Swinson and the Greens have some hard thinking to do. In particular Swinson. She's tried to talk tough about Corbyn but I can't see how a clear Johnson victory can be avoided unless she effectively bans LibDem campaigning in Lab-Con 2-way marginals.
Meanwhile, the court cases about prorogation continue. Don't forget them. If the government loses one of those, another applecart gets overturned.
It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
How many times have you resigned now?
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.
Your post is just unnecessary and takes no account of the emotion on this.
You do seem to enjoy being unpleasant, sadly
No, your emotion is a charade (you've betrayed the party many times) and you are a needy attention seeker.
I call you out on it because you are a needy attention seeker who offers almost no value to this site. You think being polite about that is enough.
It isn't. I have no respect for you.
Good grief. Either too much caffeine or not enough.
I'm not his biggest fan but I think way too much is being made of this. He's a tall guy and was trying to listen to the loudspeaker behind him.
Not that it will do any good of course because it makes a lovely photo.
There is no speaker behind his head, they are in the middle of the seats behind the round "roses". You can see where they are in the seat behind him.
I know where they are. Being on the same level as the speaker makes it much easier to hear them.
The real criticism of Mogg yesterday should be for his condescension and arrogance in playing the constitutional improper and convention flouting cards, which royally wound MPs up.
Not this.
That is a pretty good explanation. And he did seem very awkward when he was creased up, trying to listen. So maybe he went for the reclining option instead.
However he arrogantly disregarded, or didn’t care, how this would look on TV. So he’s still something of a dick.
A picture is worth a thousand words - and JRM has given his opponents a splendid picture. Another one not up to the job. For all her shortcomings Leadsom never gave the opposition ammunition like this.
Just about to reply to Byronic but if all the Johnson cheerleaders are left with is to deride Corbyn for holding off until the A50 extension Act is passed ... wow that tells you how deeply desperate they are.
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
How many times have you resigned now?
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.
Simply and uncharitably incorrect.
The Casino Royale's of this world are the typically unpleasant "face" of the Conservative Party now. It is Conservative in name only. The Brexit Party Lite, or Bluekip it is, certainly for the time being, until the entryists and fuckwits have sucked the lifeblood out of it and gone home to their war comics and secret dungeon porn
I think you are misunderstanding Casino Royale who as far as I can tell is just deeply upset about what is happening to Party and Country.
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
How many times have you resigned now?
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.
Simply and uncharitably incorrect.
The Casino Royale's of this world are the typically unpleasant "face" of the Conservative Party now. It is Conservative in name only. The Brexit Party Lite, or Bluekip it is, certainly for the time being, until the entryists and fuckwits have sucked the lifeblood out of it and gone home to their war comics and secret dungeon porn
I don't support Boris or his BXP lite moves, dickhead.
Like I've consistently said you're the biggest twat on this site by far - even when I agree with you you're a complete prick.
The car crash of Bozo Johnson is compelling yet painful to watch. What were the Tories thinking when choosing a man who make Corbyn look Prime Ministerial?
The Clown even manages to make Richard Leonard look like minister material. Quite an achievement.
Boris has the Lords blocking Benn's Surrender Law in his back pocket. He can go into the prorogation period. He can come out of it still with My Deal or No Deal as the options. And no election until after 31st October.
Instead, Boris has offered Corbyn a chance to put the decision to the people before the end of October - with a general election. But with No Deal still an option (as it would be anyway, because if he gets a majority, he repeals Benn.*)
Pop quiz: what do you do, Jeremy?
*subject to the caveat of the Remainer Lords then playing silly buggers trying to keep Benn alive.
Upon proroguation aren't all bills underway in the Lords automatically passed?
Now you are getting into the Civil War territory - abolish the House of Lords !
Remember comrades, if it wasn't for us Labour Leavers, the Tories wouldn't be in this mess.
Please form an orderly queue to buy me and BJO a pint...
So, so far we've got a mini-Trump as Prime Minister, and the most rightwing Cabinet since at least the second world war - the only comrades who are going to buy you a pint are the ones in the Brexit Party
Boris has the Lords blocking Benn's Surrender Law in his back pocket. He can go into the prorogation period. He can come out of it still with My Deal or No Deal as the options. And no election until after 31st October.
Instead, Boris has offered Corbyn a chance to put the decision to the people before the end of October - with a general election. But with No Deal still an option (as it would be anyway, because if he gets a majority, he repeals Benn.*)
Pop quiz: what do you do, Jeremy?
*subject to the caveat of the Remainer Lords then playing silly buggers trying to keep Benn alive.
Upon proroguation aren't all bills underway in the Lords automatically passed?
Now you are getting into the Civil War territory - abolish the House of Lords !
Not, all such Bills fall.
There are provisions in the bill to revive it immediately post prorogation. It would be interesting to see how that might pan out, but I expect it to scrape through before the deadline.
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
How many times have you resigned now?
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.
Simply and uncharitably incorrect.
The Casino Royale's of this world are the typically unpleasant "face" of the Conservative Party now. It is Conservative in name only. The Brexit Party Lite, or Bluekip it is, certainly for the time being, until the entryists and fuckwits have sucked the lifeblood out of it and gone home to their war comics and secret dungeon porn
I think you are misunderstanding Casino Royale who as far as I can tell is just deeply upset about what is happening to Party and Country.
Thank you, yes I am. Appreciate that.
We have our disagreements, and sometimes you are plain rude (something I am not entirely immune to myself...), but I agree with Gardenwalker.
Comments
It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.
Like I've consistently said you're the biggest twat on this site by far - even when I agree with you you're a complete prick.
Not, all such Bills fall.
It would be interesting to see how that might pan out, but I expect it to scrape through before the deadline.