politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson loses his first Parliamentary vote, no wonder he
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My Tory baseline for the upcoming GE is 300, ie. what they had until yesterday, minus 10 in Scotland. Wales doesn't offer much scope, so they need approx 25 gains in England. This only needs a swing of 2-3% so right now Johnson looks like a shoo-in. Assuming that Farage doesn't stand in Johnson's way, Swinson and the Greens have some hard thinking to do. In particular Swinson. She's tried to talk tough about Corbyn but I can't see how a clear Johnson victory can be avoided unless she effectively bans LibDem campaigning in Lab-Con 2-way marginals.Alistair said:
My rough guess on those numbers,CarlottaVance said:
Labour loses all seats bar Edinburgh South
Lib Dems pick up Fife NE (obviously)
Cons lose their 3 Lib Dem mass switch seats from 2017 plus at least 5 more?0 -
Meanwhile, the court cases about prorogation continue. Don't forget them. If the government loses one of those, another applecart gets overturned.
It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.0 -
Yes, after the small issue of an extension/revocation is sorted...dr_spyn said:Starmer:
Starmer says by email there is a General Election.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11691471700392591360 -
Good grief. Either too much caffeine or not enough.Casino_Royale said:
No, your emotion is a charade (you've betrayed the party many times) and you are a needy attention seeker.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your post is just unnecessary and takes no account of the emotion on this.Casino_Royale said:
How many times have you resigned now?Big_G_NorthWales said:My Resignation
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.
You do seem to enjoy being unpleasant, sadly
I call you out on it because you are a needy attention seeker who offers almost no value to this site. You think being polite about that is enough.
It isn't. I have no respect for you.0 -
A picture is worth a thousand words - and JRM has given his opponents a splendid picture. Another one not up to the job. For all her shortcomings Leadsom never gave the opposition ammunition like this.Byronic said:
That is a pretty good explanation. And he did seem very awkward when he was creased up, trying to listen. So maybe he went for the reclining option instead.Casino_Royale said:
I know where they are. Being on the same level as the speaker makes it much easier to hear them.eek said:
There is no speaker behind his head, they are in the middle of the seats behind the round "roses". You can see where they are in the seat behind him.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not his biggest fan but I think way too much is being made of this. He's a tall guy and was trying to listen to the loudspeaker behind him.kinabalu said:
Not that it will do any good of course because it makes a lovely photo.
The real criticism of Mogg yesterday should be for his condescension and arrogance in playing the constitutional improper and convention flouting cards, which royally wound MPs up.
Not this.
However he arrogantly disregarded, or didn’t care, how this would look on TV. So he’s still something of a dick.0 -
Just about to reply to Byronic but if all the Johnson cheerleaders are left with is to deride Corbyn for holding off until the A50 extension Act is passed ... wow that tells you how deeply desperate they are.0
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Thank you, yes I am. Appreciate that.Gardenwalker said:
I think you are misunderstanding Casino Royale who as far as I can tell is just deeply upset about what is happening to Party and Country.Nigel_Foremain said:
The Casino Royale's of this world are the typically unpleasant "face" of the Conservative Party now. It is Conservative in name only. The Brexit Party Lite, or Bluekip it is, certainly for the time being, until the entryists and fuckwits have sucked the lifeblood out of it and gone home to their war comics and secret dungeon pornNigelb said:
Simply and uncharitably incorrect.Casino_Royale said:
How many times have you resigned now?Big_G_NorthWales said:My Resignation
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.0 -
I don't support Boris or his BXP lite moves, dickhead.Nigel_Foremain said:
The Casino Royale's of this world are the typically unpleasant "face" of the Conservative Party now. It is Conservative in name only. The Brexit Party Lite, or Bluekip it is, certainly for the time being, until the entryists and fuckwits have sucked the lifeblood out of it and gone home to their war comics and secret dungeon pornNigelb said:
Simply and uncharitably incorrect.Casino_Royale said:
How many times have you resigned now?Big_G_NorthWales said:My Resignation
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.
Like I've consistently said you're the biggest twat on this site by far - even when I agree with you you're a complete prick.0 -
Revenge is sweet.CarlottaVance said:Someone’s cheered up
https://twitter.com/JoeLSmallman/status/1169035316629557248?s=200 -
The Clown even manages to make Richard Leonard look like minister material. Quite an achievement.Foxy said:
I will have my popcorn ready.Ishmael_Z said:Will we get pmq today?
The car crash of Bozo Johnson is compelling yet painful to watch. What were the Tories thinking when choosing a man who make Corbyn look Prime Ministerial?0 -
Now you are getting into the Civil War territory - abolish the House of Lords !Foxy said:
Upon proroguation aren't all bills underway in the Lords automatically passed?MarqueeMark said:Scenario:
Boris has the Lords blocking Benn's Surrender Law in his back pocket. He can go into the prorogation period. He can come out of it still with My Deal or No Deal as the options. And no election until after 31st October.
Instead, Boris has offered Corbyn a chance to put the decision to the people before the end of October - with a general election. But with No Deal still an option (as it would be anyway, because if he gets a majority, he repeals Benn.*)
Pop quiz: what do you do, Jeremy?
*subject to the caveat of the Remainer Lords then playing silly buggers trying to keep Benn alive.
Not, all such Bills fall.0 -
So, so far we've got a mini-Trump as Prime Minister, and the most rightwing Cabinet since at least the second world war - the only comrades who are going to buy you a pint are the ones in the Brexit PartySandyRentool said:Remember comrades, if it wasn't for us Labour Leavers, the Tories wouldn't be in this mess.
Please form an orderly queue to buy me and BJO a pint...0 -
so Johnson has resigned then?Philip_Thompson said:
Doesn't matter how many years of service to the party and country you have if you vote against on a confidence matter does it?Richard_Nabavi said:More rebels will need to be deselected tomorrow, I reckon.
(By 'rebels', I of course mean loyal Conservatives with many years of service to the party and country).0 -
Did she used to be someone?Scott_P said:0 -
Yes, but not today. Later this week.dr_spyn said:Starmer:
Starmer says by email there is a General Election.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11691471700392591360 -
There are provisions in the bill to revive it immediately post prorogation.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
Now you are getting into the Civil War territory - abolish the House of Lords !Foxy said:
Upon proroguation aren't all bills underway in the Lords automatically passed?MarqueeMark said:Scenario:
Boris has the Lords blocking Benn's Surrender Law in his back pocket. He can go into the prorogation period. He can come out of it still with My Deal or No Deal as the options. And no election until after 31st October.
Instead, Boris has offered Corbyn a chance to put the decision to the people before the end of October - with a general election. But with No Deal still an option (as it would be anyway, because if he gets a majority, he repeals Benn.*)
Pop quiz: what do you do, Jeremy?
*subject to the caveat of the Remainer Lords then playing silly buggers trying to keep Benn alive.
Not, all such Bills fall.
It would be interesting to see how that might pan out, but I expect it to scrape through before the deadline.0 -
We have our disagreements, and sometimes you are plain rude (something I am not entirely immune to myself...), but I agree with Gardenwalker.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you, yes I am. Appreciate that.Gardenwalker said:
I think you are misunderstanding Casino Royale who as far as I can tell is just deeply upset about what is happening to Party and Country.Nigel_Foremain said:
The Casino Royale's of this world are the typically unpleasant "face" of the Conservative Party now. It is Conservative in name only. The Brexit Party Lite, or Bluekip it is, certainly for the time being, until the entryists and fuckwits have sucked the lifeblood out of it and gone home to their war comics and secret dungeon pornNigelb said:
Simply and uncharitably incorrect.Casino_Royale said:
How many times have you resigned now?Big_G_NorthWales said:My Resignation
I am writing to resign my membership of the party with immediate effect
Yesterday, the party took leave of its senses with Boris’s performance at the dispatch box all bluster and no answers, Jacob Rees Mogg in an act of crass stupidity lounging across the green benches and providing gold dust for a GE campaign to our opponents, not least of which the Sots, who lost no time on capitalising by it headlining the photograph in most Scots papers.
However, worst of all how on earth can Boris justify withdrawing the whip from 21 dedicated conservatives, most of whom voted for Theresa’s deal while the ERG MP’s, who must carry a large part of the blame for where we are, are lauded and indeed behind this act of wanton revenge . How can our party withdraw the whip from Ken Clarke and send him onto the opposition benches, it is just so unacceptable and sickening.
In all of this though, we cannot understand how we have allowed the poisonous Dominic Cummings into No 10. He is turning our party into the Nigel Farage tribute act and it is so depressing
I will not be joining another party but shed a tear for my once great party and only hope I may one day see the One Nation Conservative party again but at my age (76) I will not hold my breath.
Yours sincerely
You said you had a few weeks ago when Richard Nabavi and David Herdson did.
Maybe we'll see a third resignation in mid October when it looks like No Deal is imminent following the EU council meeting.0
