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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont
Northern Ireland rarely gets much coverage from the mainland British press. Riots generate a fraction of the coverage that a similar one in England or Scotland (never mind London) would get; the recent Harland and Wolff closure was only of interest because of a ship that sank 107 years ago; its sporting competitions are, like its politics, a different world. Here be dragons.
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I'm not sure what the DUP are trying to do or whether it makes any sense. Why on earth did they support Brexit?
SO - That's an interesting development but why do we still see the dominance of DUP/Sinn Fein?
I’m in Downing Street, speaking to Gove, the PM and the chancellor. We’re discussing how to get around parliament.
“Demolish it,” I say. “Brick by brick. Overnight. Disrupt their decision-making loop. It’s literally the second last thing they’d expect.”
“Second last?” queries Michael, and I remind him of my earlier plan, to encase the entirety of Parliament Square inside a giant dome of pink jelly. Which is definitely what Sun Tzu would have done.
“You’re the genius, Dom,” says the PM, nervously, “but this all sounds a bit dodgy.”
I roll my eyes. Then I tell him that he’s trapped in a swamp of bogus expertise, and Gove and I are the only people around him who aren’t idiots.
“But I’m here, too,” says Sajid Javid, plaintively.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/86958e00-cb5d-11e9-aa23-8f74f0aafdde
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49526876
I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.
Is that really significant?
I like Cummings.
He has cojones.....
Yes, in a box, on his desk. They used to belong to TheSaj...
I do enjoy watching some of the usual suspects getting excited over the polls, though. Most seem to have forgotten the enormous leads Mrs May had in the early days of her premiership and what then happened at the GE.
Meanwhile, there is another Windrush on steroids brewing in the absence of primary legislation to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who have lived here years, in some cases decades. It should be a simple matter to resolve if only the politician who made that promise hadn’t shut down Parliament.
Still it’s only foreign people being affected. Who cares about them? That’s our New Model Britain, isn’t it?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
Unless its Boris?
The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.
One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
Mr Johnson is clear winner as 'best PM' on 45 per cent, Miss Swinson is second on 19 and Mr Corbyn third on 17.
Some margin!
On the identity question. Polls show most Alliance and Green voters go for an Irish rather than British identity when asked, even though most are Protestants in origin. But it's possibly more complicated than a poll question
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167697403845185537
Not sure about that, a riot that ended in a journalist being shot and murderered It seemed to be the objectors to the band that are strangers to civic joyousness.
'Ch Supt Mark Hargreaves said: "Police Scotland has a duty to facilitate processions and any peaceful protest, but this kind of behaviour by persons demonstrating against the parade is utterly unacceptable.
"It is extremely disappointing to see people acting in this fashion, causing fear and alarm to members of the public as well as putting many people at risk."'
https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1167698902214205440
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/23/everything-we-know-about-what-public-think-boris-j
The undecided voters are another interesting group. Women are consistently far more likely to say undecided in polls, even when certain to vote. I see this as an expresssion of sociability rather than the macho confrontationalism of male responders. We do know that Bozo polls particularly poorly with women, and that matches my anecdata from a mostly female workplace. I suspect that the undecideds will break disproporionally to the opposition.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17848464.calls-republican-flute-band-banned-glasgow/
Ahem - 3 of the last 4 thread headers have been about polling which questioned the popularity of the government. Are these the 'usual suspects' you mean?
Lo and behold Survation suggests something different and we want to ignore them all of a sudden.
It's often a surprise to NI Protestants that when they come to the mainland they're regarded as Irish.
My son in law, who is not the least political, in discussion over the latest developments and moves to stop no deal and seek a futher extension just asked the simple question.
'Why. It will only prolong the issues and it needs sorting now' and indicating he supports just getting out on the 31st October
And as for Corbyn you have to ask the question just how much longer this incompetent marxist throwback can carry on leading labour into oblivion.
And as for labour's brexit policy, Starmer said yesterday that they would negotiate a new deal and then put it to the people but would firmly campaign against it to remain in the EU
Utter and complete madness
Mr Johnson is clear winner as 'best PM' on 45 per cent, Miss Swinson is second on 19 and Mr Corbyn third on 17.
But of course keep the focus on YouGov and ignore the most recent poll.
Spin and guff about 'the people's priorities' is not going to be enough to get you through.
While Stormont remains suspended the next general election is likely to be the next poll on Northern Ireland and with only 1 DUP seat having a majority under 5% and only a further 2 DUP seats having majorities under 10% there are unlikely to be major changes.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17848464.calls-republican-flute-band-banned-glasgow/
Yep, it was dumb to permit the march before an Old Firm weekend, I think there's a certain amount of running scared from squeals of outrage from both lobbies. Hopefully this will result in a more stringent attitude to all marches, and the number of them. That the West of Scotland has more marches every year than NI is pretty fcuked up.
Non aligned would favour a special status for NI with respect to both Eire and the UK that allowed its citizens to be part of both, not far off what we currently have actually.
In 2005 I remember a Channel 4 debate about the Danish cartoons. The audience voted about 2:1 to have them shown.
And then Channel 4 decided not to show them anyway, having asked the audience (who, annoyingly, gave the 'wrong' answer).
Not trying to pick on him. Interested in his views.
The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
The idiots would cheer and life would move on
" 'My own family's heritage is Muslim. Myself and my four brothers were brought up to believe in God, but I do not practise any religion. My wife is a practising Christian and the only religion practised in my house is Christianity."
After her death, we found very few documents relating to her stay - beyond passports etc. There simply was no need. We had no records of my father’s earnings or NI contributions as he had died over 20 years earlier.
Had she been alive now, how would she have proved her entitlement to stay? How, despite having been registered at the same GP practice for over 50 years, would she have proved her entitlement to health care?
Not an issue for us as she died before the referendum.
But imagine the worry that such questions would provoke for people in a similar position. What an appalling way to treat people. It is shameful.
If all 3 went Sinn Fein would overtake the DUP as largest party and if Belfast South went SDLP there would be 8 Unionist seats (7 DUP and 1 UUP) and 9 Nationalist seats (8 SF and 1 SDLP).
If only Belfast North went the DUP would still be ahead on 9 seats to 8 for Sinn Fein.
If Belfast South went Alliance too then it would be 8 DUP seats, 8 Sinn Fein seats and 1 Alliance seat
Deal minus the backstop remains the first choice for Boris if the EU agree a technical alternative
I do like that Swinson is in second place for PM. I would expect that 19% to increase significantly during a campaign. I do not fear an election.
Your face must have been a picture.
It is far more a federal system now than a colonial system in the UK.
Indeed if we gave Scotland devomax (similar to that Quebec now has in Canada) and created an English Assembly or Parliament too we would probably get a workable Federal system at last
Meaningless statistic.
I too do not fear a GE.
Bring it on.
Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
(In honour of @malcolmg)
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17821487.labour-indyref2-row-erupts-leonard-slaps-mcdonnell/
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17869398.snp-attack-jeremy-corbyn-indyref2-deal-richard-leonard/
These people are pathetic.
Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.
How have we come to this?!!!
It is all just his usual bluster, and the grown ups are just humouring him.
In our conversation I told him I support the moves to stop no deal and get an extension and he just does not want it extended, come what may
As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present
That on its own says it all.
But at least it would be the voters' choice.
Raab was suggesting that proroguation cover the whole of September and October until the start of November so Parliament literally couldn't sit or vote at all prior to Brexit until it was too late.
Boris has scheduled a normal Queen's Speech prorogation, straddling an annual recess as there is precedence for, over a period of 4 sitting days and Parliament is literally sitting both before and after that prior to Brexit.
That's literally two very different things.
Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
Look at the choice he could have had if he'd waited.
(And you forgot Owain Glyn Dŵr in 1405.)
https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/Political_Attitudes/UNTDIREL.html
Im more fascinated though by why you cant cope with duality of background. You get worked up that you will lose your european identity but somehow others have to be forced in to a binary choice.
Most of the stuff I see posted on here bears little resemblence to whats happening in NI on the griond, its simply the lazy parroting of 1960s slogans. NI has moved on, in most cases social attitudes are in line with mainland UK or RoI. Only the politicians are stuck in the past.
Attitudes have been tracked for the best part of this century in the NI Life and Times survey. Its probably the best source of how views have changed.
https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/
It matters not least because if Johnson wants to win an election using votes from people like your son in law, he would be advised to hold it before October 31 when reality kicks in. For the same reason it is in the interests of the opposition to hold it afterwards. But that means a No Deal Brexit, which they want to stop. So it's a dilemma for them.