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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    felix said:

    Cyclefree: "I do enjoy watching some of the usual suspects getting excited over the polls, though. Most seem to have forgotten the enormous leads Mrs May had in the early days of her premiership and what then happened at the GE."

    Ahem - 3 of the last 4 thread headers have been about polling which questioned the popularity of the government. Are these the 'usual suspects' you mean?

    Lo and behold Survation suggests something different and we want to ignore them all of a sudden.

    Remember the exit poll at 10pm GE 2017

    Your face must have been a picture.
    Why do you say that? I am not a Tory. I voted Lib Dem. As it happens, I was out that evening so don’t remember the poll at all. I only caught up much much later. And as you don’t recall, I said on here a few days before the election that I had a feeling that Corbyn might well do it. So I was more right than many of those expecting a Tory majority.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    felix said:

    Cyclefree: "I do enjoy watching some of the usual suspects getting excited over the polls, though. Most seem to have forgotten the enormous leads Mrs May had in the early days of her premiership and what then happened at the GE."

    Ahem - 3 of the last 4 thread headers have been about polling which questioned the popularity of the government. Are these the 'usual suspects' you mean?

    Lo and behold Survation suggests something different and we want to ignore them all of a sudden.

    I meant the usual suspects below the line.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,622

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.

    At an historical level, it is surely difficult to argue against the claim that both Wales and Ireland were colonised by the English (and Scots in the case of Ireland). I am not sure you can say the same about Scotland, though.

    Most history is the history of empire, much of less than impressive. It's a universal. Even England is the long term consequence of conquest(s). The important issue in a liberal society is the right of self determination for relevant groups now. The word 'relevant' is bound to have grey areas (Cornwall, Brittany, Basque, Gibraltar, Catalonia etc). I think the UK's record on that in recent years with regard to Scotland, Wales and NI is not bad by international standards.

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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    Forthcoming elections in ROI favour Varadkar seeking a deal to go into those elections as the man who avoided no deal:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/remarkable-return-to-government-on-the-cards-for-fianna-fáil-1.4002489
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.
    Southern Scotland was colonised in the 600s.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Cyclefree said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree: "I do enjoy watching some of the usual suspects getting excited over the polls, though. Most seem to have forgotten the enormous leads Mrs May had in the early days of her premiership and what then happened at the GE."

    Ahem - 3 of the last 4 thread headers have been about polling which questioned the popularity of the government. Are these the 'usual suspects' you mean?

    Lo and behold Survation suggests something different and we want to ignore them all of a sudden.

    I meant the usual suspects below the line.
    I read from the bottom up most of the time but with our most regular posters I can tell who it is before seeing their name and could probably have written their post for them based on the current events that day.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    Bonnie Prince Charlie invaded England as far as Derby, William Wallace also invaded England as did James Vth of Scotland
    They all had in common that they lost.

    (And you forgot Owain Glyn Dŵr in 1405.)
    Yes forgot Glyn Dwr's attempt to suppress the poor English too
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    Bonnie Prince Charlie invaded England as far as Derby, William Wallace also invaded England as did James Vth of Scotland
    They all had in common that they lost.

    (And you forgot Owain Glyn Dŵr in 1405.)
    Yes forgot Glyn Dwr's attempt to suppress the poor English too
    And Flodden in 1513, and Malcolm Canmore in 1093.

    (I'm trying to be helpful...)
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    ydoethur said:

    Javid's credibility has now been dumped into the same waste receptacle as that of Amber Rudd.

    These people are pathetic.

    And unbelievably, Labour remain less credible and more whiny and pathetic.

    How have we come to this?!!!
    We have a superb policy. Negotiate a new deal. Then campaign against it.

    But at least it would be the voters' choice.
    The Harold Wilson compromise.
    With shadow cabinet ministers allowed to campaign for either side.
    It worked in the short term, but was a disaster in the long term.

    Cameron followed Wilson's example.
    However he took a lot more of the lead, but crucially lost.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    thats a fantastic typo :-)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    Survation has only 40% backing Revoke and Remain but 52% backing the Deal minus the backstop as Boris is aiming for
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.
    Culloden and its aftermath was in many ways an English conquest of the highlands, albeit often with lowland Scots as troops. That is however a fundamentally colonial way of suppressing dissent.

    A core strategy of colonialism has always been to divide and rule. Co-option of local elites by bribery and coercion, and raising of local troops loyal to the colonialists too. Indeed that is the only practicable way for a small elite to impose its will on a conquered people, as we learnt from our own experience of Roman Britain.

    As Britons we have formally decolonised, except fer a few bits of historical flotsam, but we have never decolonised our mentality. That mentality is toxic to both conqueror and conquered, and is reflected in our relationship to the world, Brexit being only one aspect. It is time to mentally decolonise, wind up the Union and bury the notion of British exceptionalism in an unmourned grave.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    For a short period this morning I was unsure whose stock within the government cabal had fallen farthest this week - Sajid Javid, Amber Rudd or Matt Hancock.

    After the Javid multiple car crash interview this morning we have a clear winner, although that later appellation is unlikely to follow the Conservatives Party around very much in the near future.

    Indeed should the Conservative and Unionist Party be subject to a false description case to the Electoral Commission I fear their new title would have to be the English Nationalist Magic Money Tree Party.
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    BeecherBeecher Posts: 1
    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present

    It's dominated by Europhile Conservatives and Labour centrists. One of its few Liberal Democrat posters is a Leaver.

    That on its own says it all.
    I remember after the 2015 general election OGH did a survey and while PB had about the same number of Tory and Labour supporters as the national average it had significantly more LD supporters and significantly fewer UKIP supporters than was the case nationally in 2015 (Richard Tyndall one of the few exceptions).

    Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
    To be fair, the UKIP supporters knew how to press the buttons of the (LibDem centric) mods - and so rapidly got themselves banned....
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,881

    Javid's credibility has now been dumped into the same waste receptacle as that of Amber Rudd.

    These people are pathetic.

    Though both are political titans compared to Nicky Morgan.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    thats a fantastic typo :-)
    I hate autocorrect with a passion.

    (It is a good one though.)
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Survation last night is the first poll to indicate the public are not reacting as most assume they are on this forum, but does confirm individual anecdotes that the public do support Boris in larger numbers than some on here thought or even hoped for

    My son in law, who is not the least political, in discussion over the latest developments and moves to stop no deal and seek a futher extension just asked the simple question.

    'Why. It will only prolong the issues and it needs sorting now' and indicating he supports just getting out on the 31st October

    And as for Corbyn you have to ask the question just how much longer this incompetent marxist throwback can carry on leading labour into oblivion.

    And as for labour's brexit policy, Starmer said yesterday that they would negotiate a new deal and then put it to the people but would firmly campaign against it to remain in the EU

    Utter and complete madness

    Does your son in law accept the No Deal that is implied by leaving on October 31 and does he think that's the end of Brexit as an issue?

    Not trying to pick on him. Interested in his views.
    I honestly do not think he thinks like that. He, in common when milllions is weary of the constant conflict and just wants the matter bringing to a head and to move on.

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present
    This forum is more informed than the public at large obviously, but what makes sense to less informed people matters. (I know this is patronising. I am sorry.)

    It matters not least because if Johnson wants to win an election using votes from people like your son in law, he would be advised to hold it before October 31 when reality kicks in. For the same reason it is in the interests of the opposition to hold it afterwards. But that means a No Deal Brexit, which they want to stop. So it's a dilemma for them.
    The question of an election is for Boris's opponents who can vonc him on tuesday and force a GE. However, for many reasons including the self preservation of many careers , mps will not do that before 14th October so an election before late November is highly unlikely even if there is one at all this year

    You may be right that post no deal Boris will crash spectacularly but we do not know. What we do know is that as long as Corbyn leads labour, no matter what happens, Boris would have more than a good chance of at least heading a minority government

    The one thing I do find surprising is that so many labour supporters on here seem to be in complete denial of just how toxic Corbyn is for their cause. Constant reflecting on Corbyn's last GE election is grasping at straws.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    Survation has only 40% backing Revoke and Remain but 52% backing the Deal minus the backstop as Boris is aiming for
    If you polled me on the subject, I’d be all in favour of having a six pack while eating chocolate. It wouldn’t tell you anything useful about my lifestyle though.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Cyclefree said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree: "I do enjoy watching some of the usual suspects getting excited over the polls, though. Most seem to have forgotten the enormous leads Mrs May had in the early days of her premiership and what then happened at the GE."

    Ahem - 3 of the last 4 thread headers have been about polling which questioned the popularity of the government. Are these the 'usual suspects' you mean?

    Lo and behold Survation suggests something different and we want to ignore them all of a sudden.

    Remember the exit poll at 10pm GE 2017

    Your face must have been a picture.
    Why do you say that? I am not a Tory. I voted Lib Dem. As it happens, I was out that evening so don’t remember the poll at all. I only caught up much much later. And as you don’t recall, I said on here a few days before the election that I had a feeling that Corbyn might well do it. So I was more right than many of those expecting a Tory majority.
    Yep. I recall you saying Corbyn will do better than people are expecting.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.

    spot on

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    Are the pollsters still weighting back to 51.9%-48.1%?

    If so, that is unlikely to be right given the markedly different mortality rates and Remain/Leave preferences across age ranges.

    I did a quick estimate based on YouGov's age split data and standard mortality tables and I reckon the result today would be very close to 50/50 if all those who voted in 2016, and are still alive now, voted again the same way.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    edited August 2019
    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.



    "...if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here..."

    Excuse me? Are you seriously trying to say someone is stopping Labour fielding candidates in NI?

    (PS Welcome btw!)
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.

    Welcome. Is that a serious point about labour and not running?
    The point about ROI main party running candidates in NI is interesting has it ever happened before?
  • Options
    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    edited August 2019
    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    Not much longer - Yes Cymru is growing rapdly. Their first march in Cardiff earlier in the summer attracted 2-3,00. The recent march in Caernarfon attracted 8-10,000. Next weekend in Merthyr another 10,000 are expected.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    ydoethur said:

    Javid's credibility has now been dumped into the same waste receptacle as that of Amber Rudd.

    These people are pathetic.

    And unbelievably, Labour remain less credible and more whiny and pathetic.

    How have we come to this?!!!
    We have a superb policy. Negotiate a new deal. Then campaign against it.

    But at least it would be the voters' choice.
    So, what incentive do Labour think the EU would have to offer a decent deal in those circumstances.

    Utterly bonkers.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    NI rarely gets attention because politically its frustrating and repetitive. Granted the rest of the country has caught up, and the only difference is less anger about flags.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2019
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.
    Culloden and its aftermath was in many ways an English conquest of the highlands, albeit often with lowland Scots as troops. That is however a fundamentally colonial way of suppressing dissent.

    A core strategy of colonialism has always been to divide and rule. Co-option of local elites by bribery and coercion, and raising of local troops loyal to the colonialists too. Indeed that is the only practicable way for a small elite to impose its will on a conquered people, as we learnt from our own experience of Roman Britain.

    As Britons we have formally decolonised, except fer a few bits of historical flotsam, but we have never decolonised our mentality. That mentality is toxic to both conqueror and conquered, and is reflected in our relationship to the world, Brexit being only one aspect. It is time to mentally decolonise, wind up the Union and bury the notion of British exceptionalism in an unmourned grave.
    While no doubt taking our place in a Federal EU which has no power ambitions at all with its own army, currency etc of course
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033
    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    Survation has only 40% backing Revoke and Remain but 52% backing the Deal minus the backstop as Boris is aiming for
    If you polled me on the subject, I’d be all in favour of having a six pack while eating chocolate. It wouldn’t tell you anything useful about my lifestyle though.
    It does show you that the only Brexit option with a clear majority in the country as in the Commons is the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, exactly as Boris is aiming for by agreeing a technical alternative with the EU
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.



    "...if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here..."

    Excuse me? Are you seriously trying to say someone is stopping Labour fielding candidates in NI?

    (PS Welcome btw!)
    The Labour Party is
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present

    It's dominated by Europhile Conservatives and Labour centrists. One of its few Liberal Democrat posters is a Leaver.

    That on its own says it all.
    I remember after the 2015 general election OGH did a survey and while PB had about the same number of Tory and Labour supporters as the national average it had significantly more LD supporters and significantly fewer UKIP supporters than was the case nationally in 2015 (Richard Tyndall one of the few exceptions).

    Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
    To be fair, the UKIP supporters knew how to press the buttons of the (LibDem centric) mods - and so rapidly got themselves banned....
    Some truth there, about 5 years ago I was pretty close to the PB median, now I am well to the PB right
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413

    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.



    "...if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here..."

    Excuse me? Are you seriously trying to say someone is stopping Labour fielding candidates in NI?

    (PS Welcome btw!)
    I'm more amused by the notion that any of our chiefs in London have intelligence.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    If NI seems to be leaning to the centre at last it would be a good thing if the 'Ultras' on both sides of the Brexit debate in the UK follow their lead. Meanwhile the one clear thing coming out of the 2 big polls so far YG and Survation is that Jeremy Corbyn is toxicity personified and he's dragging the Labour brand down with him. Like him or loathe him Boris does not repel voters in the same way right now.

    Give him time
    If Brexit doesn't do it nothing will.

    People used to say that about Theresa May! Johnson is more popular than Corbyn and always will be (just as May was always more popular than him too). But Johnson is also taking the UK to a No Deal Brexit that all the polls, including Survation, tell us that most people do not want - and he’s closing down Parliament to help him do it and to avoid any scrutiny of his planning and motives. If No Deal is not the No Problem Johnson has told us it will be - if it turns out not to be “easily manageable” - then he is going to be in trouble. That’s why he needs an election by November at the very latest.

    If by some miracle he gets a deal - then I suspect he could win a landslide in a quick GE. Long-term..? Didn't someone say the long-term is 'another country' or something.
    If he gets a deal he loses some proportion of BXP voters who will be told it is a betrayal somehow.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.
    Culloden and its aftermath was in many ways an English conquest of the highlands, albeit often with lowland Scots as troops. That is however a fundamentally colonial way of suppressing dissent.

    A core strategy of colonialism has always been to divide and rule. Co-option of local elites by bribery and coercion, and raising of local troops loyal to the colonialists too. Indeed that is the only practicable way for a small elite to impose its will on a conquered people, as we learnt from our own experience of Roman Britain.

    As Britons we have formally decolonised, except fer a few bits of historical flotsam, but we have never decolonised our mentality. That mentality is toxic to both conqueror and conquered, and is reflected in our relationship to the world, Brexit being only one aspect. It is time to mentally decolonise, wind up the Union and bury the notion of British exceptionalism in an unmourned grave.
    What it's time for is you to step away from the keyboard and go and smell some flowers or something. The plain fact is, someone took your EU toy away, and it would make you feel better if they get their UK toy taken away from them.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    nichomar said:

    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.

    Welcome. Is that a serious point about labour and not running?
    The point about ROI main party running candidates in NI is interesting has it ever happened before?
    NI residents were BANNED from joining Labour up until 2003 when Labour were taken to court and folded.

    An other ethnic group and the Left would have been screaming racism.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2019
    Penddu said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    Not much longer - Yes Cymru is growing rapdly. Their first march in Cardiff earlier in the summer attracted 2-3,00. The recent march in Caernarfon attracted 8-10,000. Next weekend in Merthyr another 10,000 are expected.
    Given Plaid got 164 000 votes at the last general election, when both Labour and the Tories beat them in Wales, 211 000 votes at the 2016 Welsh Assembly election too, getting 10 000 to a march ie less than a tenth of the Plaid vote, is not much to write home about
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2019
    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    If NI seems to be leaning to the centre at last it would be a good thing if the 'Ultras' on both sides of the Brexit debate in the UK follow their lead. Meanwhile the one clear thing coming out of the 2 big polls so far YG and Survation is that Jeremy Corbyn is toxicity personified and he's dragging the Labour brand down with him. Like him or loathe him Boris does not repel voters in the same way right now.

    Give him time
    If Brexit doesn't do it nothing will.

    People used to say that about Theresa May! Johnson is more popular than Corbyn and always will be (just as May was always more popular than him too). But Johnson is also taking the UK to a No Deal Brexit that all the polls, including Survation, tell us that most people do not want - and he’s closing down Parliament to help him do it and to avoid any scrutiny of his planning and motives. If No Deal is not the No Problem Johnson has told us it will be - if it turns out not to be “easily manageable” - then he is going to be in trouble. That’s why he needs an election by November at the very latest.

    If by some miracle he gets a deal - then I suspect he could win a landslide in a quick GE. Long-term..? Didn't someone say the long-term is 'another country' or something.
    If he gets a deal he loses some proportion of BXP voters who will be told it is a betrayal somehow.
    The BXP is still polling over 10% now, most of the No Deal hardliners are already voting BXP, Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop and Brexit at last satisfies the vast majority of Tory voters and indeed 52% of voters as a whole with Survation today
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,723
    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    Javid's credibility has now been dumped into the same waste receptacle as that of Amber Rudd.

    These people are pathetic.

    And unbelievably, Labour remain less credible and more whiny and pathetic.

    How have we come to this?!!!
    We have a superb policy. Negotiate a new deal. Then campaign against it.

    But at least it would be the voters' choice.
    So, what incentive do Labour think the EU would have to offer a decent deal in those circumstances.

    Utterly bonkers.
    Permanent Customs Union. Why would the EU not offer that?

    Remember, Labour want to move closer to the EU, away from May's deal.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,028
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present

    It's dominated by Europhile Conservatives and Labour centrists. One of its few Liberal Democrat posters is a Leaver.

    That on its own says it all.
    I remember after the 2015 general election OGH did a survey and while PB had about the same number of Tory and Labour supporters as the national average it had significantly more LD supporters and significantly fewer UKIP supporters than was the case nationally in 2015 (Richard Tyndall one of the few exceptions).

    Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
    To be fair, the UKIP supporters knew how to press the buttons of the (LibDem centric) mods - and so rapidly got themselves banned....
    Some truth there, about 5 years ago I was pretty close to the PB median, now I am well to the PB right
    3 years ago you voted Remain. I suspect at least half your move towards the PB right is your own journey.
    At the same time I've moved more to the left / centre. Simply because of the insanity of leaving without a plan.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    ydoethur said:

    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.

    The Union was a Scottish driven project prior to the dodgy dynastic manoeuvres of the 1701 Act of Settlement, which triggered an English interest in what Scotland might do. The bribes didn't make any real difference to the vote (I was slightly involved in some research to do with this). The situation in parliament was the typical one of a smallish band of enthusiasts, a larger band of opponents and a bigger again group of sceptics that might be convinced. The end result was that the sceptics were convinced the Union was in Scotland interest. The vote wasn't close.

    It was also true that the cities were firmly opposed and by the time of the 1715 Jacobite rebellion just about everyone agreed the benefits promised by the Union hadn't been delivered. Arguably they were over the course of the 18th century thanks to Scottish interests being vested in London and served from there.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present

    It's dominated by Europhile Conservatives and Labour centrists. One of its few Liberal Democrat posters is a Leaver.

    That on its own says it all.
    I remember after the 2015 general election OGH did a survey and while PB had about the same number of Tory and Labour supporters as the national average it had significantly more LD supporters and significantly fewer UKIP supporters than was the case nationally in 2015 (Richard Tyndall one of the few exceptions).

    Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
    To be fair, the UKIP supporters knew how to press the buttons of the (LibDem centric) mods - and so rapidly got themselves banned....
    Some truth there, about 5 years ago I was pretty close to the PB median, now I am well to the PB right
    Only because your football team has moved to the right
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,723
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present

    It's dominated by Europhile Conservatives and Labour centrists. One of its few Liberal Democrat posters is a Leaver.

    That on its own says it all.
    I remember after the 2015 general election OGH did a survey and while PB had about the same number of Tory and Labour supporters as the national average it had significantly more LD supporters and significantly fewer UKIP supporters than was the case nationally in 2015 (Richard Tyndall one of the few exceptions).

    Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
    To be fair, the UKIP supporters knew how to press the buttons of the (LibDem centric) mods - and so rapidly got themselves banned....
    Some truth there, about 5 years ago I was pretty close to the PB median, now I am well to the PB right
    That's cos you used to be a Cameroon, now you are a Bozoite.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The small but electorally decisive group of non aligned voters seem to go heavily for the Irish identity and see the Irish government as representing their interests on Brexit better than the UK one.

    I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.

    This interview with the actor James Nesbit gives a great insight into the non-aligned mindset. I am not sure your characterisation is entirely accurate. My sense is that they are generally younger, more middle class and largely Protestant in background:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
    More Protestant than Catholic, but both. I have a good friend from a Catholic background who largely shares James Nesbitt's views. I think he would see himself more straightforwardly as Irish and not worry so much about structures, but that's probably a detail for him. One thing in common with all these younger non sectarian voters is a commitment to Northern Ireland as a place and a belief that something needs to be sorted out.

    On the identity question. Polls show most Alliance and Green voters go for an Irish rather than British identity when asked, even though most are Protestants in origin. But it's possibly more complicated than a poll question
    Nesbitt makes the point that when he came to RADA, in England, he found he was described as Irish. Similar to Jeremy John Ashdown, who came to school in England with an Irish accent and was for ever afterwards known as Paddy.
    It's often a surprise to NI Protestants that when they come to the mainland they're regarded as Irish.
    Why is it a surprise given they have a type of Irish accent?

    You can be English and British, Welsh and British, Scottish and British and Irish (Northern) and British. No problem.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    FF43 said:

    The small but electorally decisive group of non aligned voters seem to go heavily for the Irish identity and see the Irish government as representing their interests on Brexit better than the UK one.

    I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.

    This interview with the actor James Nesbit gives a great insight into the non-aligned mindset. I am not sure your characterisation is entirely accurate. My sense is that they are generally younger, more middle class and largely Protestant in background:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
    That isn't non aligned. He favours a united Ireland and tried to stop God Save the Queen being played at a football match.

    Non aligned would favour a special status for NI with respect to both Eire and the UK that allowed its citizens to be part of both, not far off what we currently have actually.

    I think it’s a lot more nuanced than that. I read it as him believing reunification was a secondary issue. There are far more important things to deal with. But if someone like Nesbitt is counted as a Nationalist, Ireland will be reuniting pretty soon.

    I would read him as a type of nationalist but I don't think he's representative.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    HYUFD said:



    While no doubt taking our place in a Federal EU which has no power ambitions at all with its own army, currency etc of course

    How dare the EU supplant the UK army, currency etc that it generously shares* with the junior nations of these islands. It's an outrage!

    *T&C apply
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    Definitely only for lefties - the language of some of the questions is likely to give a few PB Tories a siezure (though it would be interesting to see what some of our resident neoliberals come out as!)

    Somewhat boringly, I'm a Democratic Socialist apparently. Shocked, I am.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.

    The Union was a Scottish driven project prior to the dodgy dynastic manoeuvres of the 1701 Act of Settlement, which triggered an English interest in what Scotland might do. The bribes didn't make any real difference to the vote (I was slightly involved in some research to do with this). The situation in parliament was the typical one of a smallish band of enthusiasts, a larger band of opponents and a bigger again group of sceptics that might be convinced. The end result was that the sceptics were convinced the Union was in Scotland interest. The vote wasn't close.

    It was also true that the cities were firmly opposed and by the time of the 1715 Jacobite rebellion just about everyone agreed the benefits promised by the Union hadn't been delivered. Arguably they were over the course of the 18th century thanks to Scottish interests being vested in London and served from there.
    Even in 2014 the biggest city in Scotland, Glasgow, voted to Leave the Union even if Scotland as a whole voted to stay
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present

    It's dominated by Europhile Conservatives and Labour centrists. One of its few Liberal Democrat posters is a Leaver.

    That on its own says it all.
    I remember after the 2015 general election OGH did a survey and while PB had about the same number of Tory and Labour supporters as the national average it had significantly more LD supporters and significantly fewer UKIP supporters than was the case nationally in 2015 (Richard Tyndall one of the few exceptions).

    Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
    To be fair, the UKIP supporters knew how to press the buttons of the (LibDem centric) mods - and so rapidly got themselves banned....
    Some truth there, about 5 years ago I was pretty close to the PB median, now I am well to the PB right
    That's cos you used to be a Cameroon, now you are a Bozoite.
    Well Nick Palmer used to be a Blairite and is now a Corbynite too
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.

    At an historical level, it is surely difficult to argue against the claim that both Wales and Ireland were colonised by the English (and Scots in the case of Ireland). I am not sure you can say the same about Scotland, though.

    You could make similar historical arguments about England being colonised by the Romans, Saxons and Vikings as well.

    What's relevant is the governance we have now and how people feel about it. For over three hundred years for Scotland and England it has been on the basis of equity.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,018
    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Democratic socialism for me.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    I came out 51.8% conservative and 48.2% progressive .... :smiley:

    Clearly a second vote is required !!!!!!!!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    Scott_P said:
    This is a load of claptrap.

    Raab was suggesting that proroguation cover the whole of September and October until the start of November so Parliament literally couldn't sit or vote at all prior to Brexit until it was too late.

    Boris has scheduled a normal Queen's Speech prorogation, straddling an annual recess as there is precedence for, over a period of 4 sitting days and Parliament is literally sitting both before and after that prior to Brexit.

    That's literally two very different things.
    The motivation to disrupt parliament because it causes them problems is the same it's just not as extreme as people are saying.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Sure most LUFC-supporting Porsche drivers are.....
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I commented I do believe this forum is out of step with the public at present

    It's dominated by Europhile Conservatives and Labour centrists. One of its few Liberal Democrat posters is a Leaver.

    That on its own says it all.
    I remember after the 2015 general election OGH did a survey and while PB had about the same number of Tory and Labour supporters as the national average it had significantly more LD supporters and significantly fewer UKIP supporters than was the case nationally in 2015 (Richard Tyndall one of the few exceptions).

    Hence PB was more supportive of the Coalition than the national average but is more opposed to No Deal over further extension than the national average too
    To be fair, the UKIP supporters knew how to press the buttons of the (LibDem centric) mods - and so rapidly got themselves banned....
    Some truth there, about 5 years ago I was pretty close to the PB median, now I am well to the PB right
    That's cos you used to be a Cameroon, now you are a Bozoite.
    I don't think Bozo as particularly of the right, in so far as he believes in anything.

    Apart from its lunatic Brexit policy, the current Tory party is quite left wing, certainly more so than recent decades, witness the recent pledges for education, environment, health and abandonment of financial prudence.

    Surely much of this is driven by electoral expediency rather than conviction, in order to try to gain Labour Leave votes, but not right wing by international standards. Whether this holds true after Bozo holds the ring to rule them all, we shall see.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    It's not a slog; it's a revolutionary duty which must be attacked with zeal.

    A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.

    Mao.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847

    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.



    "...if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here..."

    Excuse me? Are you seriously trying to say someone is stopping Labour fielding candidates in NI?

    (PS Welcome btw!)
    The Labour Party is
    Yuo mean the Labour PArty has a rule or policy that they won't stand in NI? In which case I'd say that's their perogative.

    But that's very different to saying that MI5 or somesuch is banning Labour from putting up candidates.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    In that case you might want to choose your words a little more carefully.

    Language like you used earlier about English colonialism only stokes the flames of nationalism.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    It's not a slog; it's a revolutionary duty which must be attacked with zeal.

    A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.

    Mao.
    LOL Clearly, I am only a feeble Democratic Socialist - not cut out to be a true believer.

    :lol:
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    edited August 2019

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    In that case you might want to choose your words a little more carefully.

    Language like you used earlier about English colonialism only stokes the flames of nationalism.
    The truth can be a bit inflamatory at times, that doesn't mean to say it's better to pretend it didn't happen.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    kle4 said:

    NI rarely gets attention because politically its frustrating and repetitive. Granted the rest of the country has caught up, and the only difference is less anger about flags.

    I'm afraid Scotland has been infected with the flegs bollox for some time. Expect an outbreak near you at any time.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    Survation has only 40% backing Revoke and Remain but 52% backing the Deal minus the backstop as Boris is aiming for
    If you polled me on the subject, I’d be all in favour of having a six pack while eating chocolate. It wouldn’t tell you anything useful about my lifestyle though.
    It does show you that the only Brexit option with a clear majority in the country as in the Commons is the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, exactly as Boris is aiming for by agreeing a technical alternative with the EU

    I doiubt it. If only Brexit options were on the table with no option to Remain it is hard to see the country rejecting an EFTA arrangement. That would be closest to giving Remainers what they want and, as we know, would also appeal to enough Leave supporters to take it over 50% .

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.
    You could make an opposite argument as well.

    In 1603 there was a reverse Scottish takeover of our own royal family. And, of course, the present Queen is half Scottish.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    It's not a slog; it's a revolutionary duty which must be attacked with zeal.

    A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.

    Mao.
    Almost as good as Gil Scott-Heron.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Cyclefree said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree: "I do enjoy watching some of the usual suspects getting excited over the polls, though. Most seem to have forgotten the enormous leads Mrs May had in the early days of her premiership and what then happened at the GE."

    Ahem - 3 of the last 4 thread headers have been about polling which questioned the popularity of the government. Are these the 'usual suspects' you mean?

    Lo and behold Survation suggests something different and we want to ignore them all of a sudden.

    Remember the exit poll at 10pm GE 2017

    Your face must have been a picture.
    Why do you say that? I am not a Tory. I voted Lib Dem. As it happens, I was out that evening so don’t remember the poll at all. I only caught up much much later. And as you don’t recall, I said on here a few days before the election that I had a feeling that Corbyn might well do it. So I was more right than many of those expecting a Tory majority.
    I knew in my heart it wasn't going well and secretly suspected it was all over as soon as I saw the exit poll, which I knew would be right as well.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    I thought Scotland were rather emphatic that they weren't conquered, they were first tricked and then bribed into union.

    Arguably they're wrong in practice - Dunbar and Culloden spring to mind as counter-arguments - but that is technically a correct reading of 1603 and 1707.
    Culloden and its aftermath was in many ways an English conquest of the highlands, albeit often with lowland Scots as troops. That is however a fundamentally colonial way of suppressing dissent.

    A core strategy of colonialism has always been to divide and rule. Co-option of local elites by bribery and coercion, and raising of local troops loyal to the colonialists too. Indeed that is the only practicable way for a small elite to impose its will on a conquered people, as we learnt from our own experience of Roman Britain.

    As Britons we have formally decolonised, except fer a few bits of historical flotsam, but we have never decolonised our mentality. That mentality is toxic to both conqueror and conquered, and is reflected in our relationship to the world, Brexit being only one aspect. It is time to mentally decolonise, wind up the Union and bury the notion of British exceptionalism in an unmourned grave.
    Ah, so you are an English nationalist then.

    Interesting.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,622

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Democratic socialism for me.
    Apparently I'm a utopian, but plan to carry on voting for as close to the moderate centre as is possible.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    Definitely only for lefties - the language of some of the questions is likely to give a few PB Tories a siezure (though it would be interesting to see what some of our resident neoliberals come out as!)

    Somewhat boringly, I'm a Democratic Socialist apparently. Shocked, I am.
    Doesnt hold back by opening with questions on revolution. I come out as a social Democrat
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    edited August 2019

    FF43 said:

    The small but electorally decisive group of non aligned voters seem to go heavily for the Irish identity and see the Irish government as representing their interests on Brexit better than the UK one.

    I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.

    This interview with the actor James Nesbit gives a great insight into the non-aligned mindset. I am not sure your characterisation is entirely accurate. My sense is that they are generally younger, more middle class and largely Protestant in background:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
    That isn't non aligned. He favours a united Ireland and tried to stop God Save the Queen being played at a football match.

    Non aligned would favour a special status for NI with respect to both Eire and the UK that allowed its citizens to be part of both, not far off what we currently have actually.

    I think it’s a lot more nuanced than that. I read it as him believing reunification was a secondary issue. There are far more important things to deal with. But if someone like Nesbitt is counted as a Nationalist, Ireland will be reuniting pretty soon.

    Unlikely,

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/Political_Attitudes/UNTDIREL.html

    Im more fascinated though by why you cant cope with duality of background. You get worked up that you will lose your european identity but somehow others have to be forced in to a binary choice.

    Most of the stuff I see posted on here bears little resemblence to whats happening in NI on the griond, its simply the lazy parroting of 1960s slogans. NI has moved on, in most cases social attitudes are in line with mainland UK or RoI. Only the politicians are stuck in the past.

    Attitudes have been tracked for the best part of this century in the NI Life and Times survey. Its probably the best source of how views have changed.

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/

    I can very easily understand double, triple and quadruple identities. You are not the only Northern Irish unionist with an RUC father I know who holds an Irish passport! I do not think anyone shoud be forced into a choice. My guess is that this is exactly where James Nesbitt is coming from, too. My point was that if people believe the views he expounds are those of an Irish nationalist (I do not think they are), then Irish reunificaiton is going to happen very soon (I do not think it will).

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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Betting post. Put the rat and mouse on Lomachenko. He’s one of the best boxers of all time, dances like Nureyev and punches like a stealth bomber, and already seen off opponents harder than the Marquis De Sade.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,018
    algarkirk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Democratic socialism for me.
    Apparently I'm a utopian, but plan to carry on voting for as close to the moderate centre as is possible.
    I'm 69.2% Utopian! Like you I will continue to vote for the moderate centre (translates as LD currently).
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033

    Cyclefree said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree: "I do enjoy watching some of the usual suspects getting excited over the polls, though. Most seem to have forgotten the enormous leads Mrs May had in the early days of her premiership and what then happened at the GE."

    Ahem - 3 of the last 4 thread headers have been about polling which questioned the popularity of the government. Are these the 'usual suspects' you mean?

    Lo and behold Survation suggests something different and we want to ignore them all of a sudden.

    Remember the exit poll at 10pm GE 2017

    Your face must have been a picture.
    Why do you say that? I am not a Tory. I voted Lib Dem. As it happens, I was out that evening so don’t remember the poll at all. I only caught up much much later. And as you don’t recall, I said on here a few days before the election that I had a feeling that Corbyn might well do it. So I was more right than many of those expecting a Tory majority.
    I knew in my heart it wasn't going well and secretly suspected it was all over as soon as I saw the exit poll, which I knew would be right as well.
    I can recall you saying it was going to be a shit show days before the election so it obviously wasn't a complete surprise to those tories that were paying attention.

    There was also somebody else (can't remember who) making increasingly shrill demands that the campaign be focused on Corbo's historical hard on for the IRA as the polls narrowed. That was properly lolsome.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    In that case you might want to choose your words a little more carefully.

    Language like you used earlier about English colonialism only stokes the flames of nationalism.
    We need to face a lot of uncomfortable truths about our own history if we want to move on.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And lol and behold, the unweighted Survation sample again shows a Remain lead.

    Survation has only 40% backing Revoke and Remain but 52% backing the Deal minus the backstop as Boris is aiming for
    If you polled me on the subject, I’d be all in favour of having a six pack while eating chocolate. It wouldn’t tell you anything useful about my lifestyle though.
    It does show you that the only Brexit option with a clear majority in the country as in the Commons is the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, exactly as Boris is aiming for by agreeing a technical alternative with the EU
    I honestly haven’t a clue where all your excitement is coming from mate. Why would Boris lose the popularity in his party and lose the leadership if he called a snap election and lost Downing Street. The most sensible thing, and best position the Conservative Party could be in right now is to go into opposition.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited August 2019

    FF43 said:

    The small but electorally decisive group of non aligned voters seem to go heavily for the Irish identity and see the Irish government as representing their interests on Brexit better than the UK one.

    I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.

    This interview with the actor James Nesbit gives a great insight into the non-aligned mindset. I am not sure your characterisation is entirely accurate. My sense is that they are generally younger, more middle class and largely Protestant in background:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
    That isn't non aligned. He favours a united Ireland and tried to stop God Save the Queen being played at a football match.

    Non aligned would favour a special status for NI with respect to both Eire and the UK that allowed its citizens to be part of both, not far off what we currently have actually.

    I think it’s a lot more nuanced than that. I read it as him believing reunification was a secondary issue. There are far more important things to deal with. But if someone like Nesbitt is counted as a Nationalist, Ireland will be reuniting pretty soon.

    Unlikely,

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/Political_Attitudes/UNTDIREL.html

    Im more fascinated though by why you cant cope with duality of background. You get worked up that you will lose your european identity but somehow others have to be forced in to a binary choice.

    Most of the stuff I see posted on here bears little resemblence to whats happening in NI on the griond, its simply the lazy parroting of 1960s slogans. NI has moved on, in most cases social attitudes are in line with mainland UK or RoI. Only the politicians are stuck in the past.

    Attitudes have been tracked for the best part of this century in the NI Life and Times survey. Its probably the best source of how views have changed.

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/
    If NI has moved on why havent the politicians? The people of NI continually reward them, reinforcing them. Politicians change if forced to, apparently they have not been.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,028
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    The small but electorally decisive group of non aligned voters seem to go heavily for the Irish identity and see the Irish government as representing their interests on Brexit better than the UK one.

    I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.

    This interview with the actor James Nesbit gives a great insight into the non-aligned mindset. I am not sure your characterisation is entirely accurate. My sense is that they are generally younger, more middle class and largely Protestant in background:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
    That isn't non aligned. He favours a united Ireland and tried to stop God Save the Queen being played at a football match.

    Non aligned would favour a special status for NI with respect to both Eire and the UK that allowed its citizens to be part of both, not far off what we currently have actually.

    I think it’s a lot more nuanced than that. I read it as him believing reunification was a secondary issue. There are far more important things to deal with. But if someone like Nesbitt is counted as a Nationalist, Ireland will be reuniting pretty soon.

    Unlikely,

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/Political_Attitudes/UNTDIREL.html

    Im more fascinated though by why you cant cope with duality of background. You get worked up that you will lose your european identity but somehow others have to be forced in to a binary choice.

    Most of the stuff I see posted on here bears little resemblence to whats happening in NI on the griond, its simply the lazy parroting of 1960s slogans. NI has moved on, in most cases social attitudes are in line with mainland UK or RoI. Only the politicians are stuck in the past.

    Attitudes have been tracked for the best part of this century in the NI Life and Times survey. Its probably the best source of how views have changed.

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/
    If NI has moved on why havent the politicians? The people of NI continually reward them, reinforcing them. Politicians change if forced to, apparently they have not been.
    For a lot of the Northern Irish I think it's because no party represents their views so they end up voting for the likely winner to avoid the other side winning.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    In that case you might want to choose your words a little more carefully.

    Language like you used earlier about English colonialism only stokes the flames of nationalism.
    We need to face a lot of uncomfortable truths about our own history if we want to move on.
    Most have, but mischaracterising things as some kind of self flagellation is not achieving that, it's about holier than thou posturing. Same with the stuff about our place in the world - those who live in a permanent WW2 we are the greatest nostalgic haze are very much a minority, but because they are loud their silly counterparts love to pretend they are a majority and seem to think most people dont know we are not a superpower and that they are fine with that.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    It's not a slog; it's a revolutionary duty which must be attacked with zeal.

    A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.

    Mao.
    Almost as good as Gil Scott-Heron.
    If Mao's old dad had played for Celtic he'd have taken over the world (rather than have to wait for his political descendants to do so), the Hiberno radicals would be unstoppable in their fervour.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    Definitely only for lefties - the language of some of the questions is likely to give a few PB Tories a siezure (though it would be interesting to see what some of our resident neoliberals come out as!)

    Somewhat boringly, I'm a Democratic Socialist apparently. Shocked, I am.
    Doesnt hold back by opening with questions on revolution. I come out as a social Democrat
    I have honestly answered all 64 questions and came out as 'Utopian' whatever that conveys
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798

    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.



    "...if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here..."

    Excuse me? Are you seriously trying to say someone is stopping Labour fielding candidates in NI?

    (PS Welcome btw!)
    The Labour Party is
    Yuo mean the Labour PArty has a rule or policy that they won't stand in NI? In which case I'd say that's their perogative.

    But that's very different to saying that MI5 or somesuch is banning Labour from putting up candidates.
    I suspect Beecher was talking about the Irish Labour Party. I'm not sure it is banned. After all, Sinn Fein stands for the Dáil.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Beecher said:

    The next general election would be made much more interesting in NI if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here and allowed candidates to enter the inbred factional political cul de sac of NI. This one action would seriously erode the working class impoverished urban DUP loyalist and Sinn Fein republican core voting bases. Mostly only the elderly corrupted and criminal would continue to seriously support either if there was a credible political alternative.

    Although I suspect the move toward reunification being their longterm true goal, it will be candidates from both main parties in the Dail running candidates locally here.



    "...if London’s intelligence chiefs lifted their ban on the Labour party running here..."

    Excuse me? Are you seriously trying to say someone is stopping Labour fielding candidates in NI?

    (PS Welcome btw!)
    The Labour Party is
    The Northern Ireland Labour Party certainly contested Westminster seats in the 1960s - and polled strongly in some areas.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    The small but electorally decisive group of non aligned voters seem to go heavily for the Irish identity and see the Irish government as representing their interests on Brexit better than the UK one.

    I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.

    This interview with the actor James Nesbit gives a great insight into the non-aligned mindset. I am not sure your characterisation is entirely accurate. My sense is that they are generally younger, more middle class and largely Protestant in background:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
    That isn't non aligned. He favours a united Ireland and tried to stop God Save the Queen being played at a football match.

    Non aligned would favour a special status for NI with respect to both Eire and the UK that allowed its citizens to be part of both, not far off what we currently have actually.

    I think it’s a lot more nuanced than that. I read it as him believing reunification was a secondary issue. There are far more important things to deal with. But if someone like Nesbitt is counted as a Nationalist, Ireland will be reuniting pretty soon.

    Unlikely,

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/Political_Attitudes/UNTDIREL.html

    Im more fascinated though by why you cant cope with duality of background. You get

    Attitudes have been tracked for the best part of this century in the NI Life and Times survey. Its probably the best source of how views have changed.

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/
    If NI has moved on why havent the politicians? The people of NI continually reward them, reinforcing them. Politicians change if forced to, apparently they have not been.
    For a lot of the Northern Irish I think it's because no party represents their views so they end up voting for the likely winner to avoid the other side winning.
    Doesnt sound much like moving on then. But the stock answer from some will come that no one else truly understands NI so how dare you comment, seeking to shut down any comment from outside and thus proving it seems to me that things haven't moved on. So I say in advance, well make me understand. All places can be understood even if you dont live there.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833

    algarkirk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Democratic socialism for me.
    Apparently I'm a utopian, but plan to carry on voting for as close to the moderate centre as is possible.
    I'm 69.2% Utopian! Like you I will continue to vote for the moderate centre (translates as LD currently).
    Democratic Socialist for me. I don't think that correct, just that my oposition to violence and dictatorship rules out other designations.

    To quote Bakunin:

    "When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the People's Stick."

    And:

    "If you took the most ardent revolutionary, vested him in absolute power, within a year he would be worse than the Tsar himself."
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Blimey, it's a bit of a slog - 64 questions and no going back if you make a mistake.

    Definitely only for lefties - the language of some of the questions is likely to give a few PB Tories a siezure (though it would be interesting to see what some of our resident neoliberals come out as!)

    Somewhat boringly, I'm a Democratic Socialist apparently. Shocked, I am.
    Doesnt hold back by opening with questions on revolution. I come out as a social Democrat
    I have honestly answered all 64 questions and came out as 'Utopian' whatever that conveys
    It even works on tories!
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    In that case you might want to choose your words a little more carefully.

    Language like you used earlier about English colonialism only stokes the flames of nationalism.
    We need to face a lot of uncomfortable truths about our own history if we want to move on.
    Most have, but mischaracterising things as some kind of self flagellation is not achieving that, it's about holier than thou posturing. Same with the stuff about our place in the world - those who live in a permanent WW2 we are the greatest nostalgic haze are very much a minority, but because they are loud their silly counterparts love to pretend they are a majority and seem to think most people dont know we are not a superpower and that they are fine with that.
    Why not shove all that nationalism under the bed next to all the magazines with the pages stuck together, have a Royal Commission and end up in a commonwealth of nations like James was working us to back in the first place?
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    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Six dimensional political compass thing that works out what type of left winger you are - we love shit like this.

    https://leftvalues.github.io/index.html

    I'm an eco-anarchist.

    Democratic socialism for me.
    Apparently I'm a utopian, but plan to carry on voting for as close to the moderate centre as is possible.
    I'm 69.2% Utopian! Like you I will continue to vote for the moderate centre (translates as LD currently).
    Democratic Socialist for me. I don't think that correct, just that my oposition to violence and dictatorship rules out other designations.

    To quote Bakunin:

    "When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the People's Stick."

    And:

    "If you took the most ardent revolutionary, vested him in absolute power, within a year he would be worse than the Tsar himself."

    Yep, I am a democratic socialist, too, apparently. Could have fooled me!

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    Dura_Ace said:


    There was also somebody else (can't remember who) making increasingly shrill demands that the campaign be focused on Corbo's historical hard on for the IRA as the polls narrowed. That was properly lolsome.

    More than one.
    There's still the occasional desultory attempt out of reflexive habit, but they've mostly moved onto the Jezza 'Streicher' Corbyn stuff.

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    Not sure this is a very smart move ...
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1167719775230922752
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    The small but electorally decisive group of non aligned voters seem to go heavily for the Irish identity and see the Irish government as representing their interests on Brexit better than the UK one.

    I wouldn't rule out the DUP featuring in the UK government post an election.

    This interview with the actor James Nesbit gives a great insight into the non-aligned mindset. I am not sure your characterisation is entirely accurate. My sense is that they are generally younger, more middle class and largely Protestant in background:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/james-nesbitt-interview-irish-northern-irish-protestant-and-proud-1.3947853
    That isn't non aligned. He favours a united Ireland and tried to stop God Save the Queen being played at a football match.

    Non aligned would favour a special status for NI with respect to both Eire and the UK that allowed its citizens to be part of both, not far off what we currently have actually.

    I think it’s a lot more nuanced than that. I read it as him believing reunification was a secondary issue. There are far more important things to deal with. But if someone like Nesbitt is counted as a Nationalist, Ireland will be reuniting pretty soon.

    Unlikely,

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/Political_Attitudes/UNTDIREL.html

    Im more fascinated though by why you cant cope with duality of background. You get worked up that you will lose your european identity but somehow others have to be forced in to a binary choice.

    Most of the stuff I see posted on here bears little resemblence to whats happening in NI on the griond, its simply the lazy parroting of 1960s slogans. NI has moved on, in most cases social attitudes are in line with mainland UK or RoI. Only the politicians are stuck in the past.

    Attitudes have been tracked for the best part of this century in the NI Life and Times survey. Its probably the best source of how views have changed.

    https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2018/
    If NI has moved on why havent the politicians? The people of NI continually reward them, reinforcing them. Politicians change if forced to, apparently they have not been.
    Because voters think Sinn Féin and the DUP represent people like them. It's tribal.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Not sure this is a very smart move ...
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1167719775230922752

    Surely that could cost them the election? If well known MPs stand as independents or are forced to defect... the Tories could do without losing ANY seats given how Scotland looks.

    Also in the event of no election they would be throwing away control of the House.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,028

    Not sure this is a very smart move ...
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1167719775230922752

    The article states that any Tory MPs voting against the leadership next week will be deselected.

    If that's the case it's just upping the stakes..
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    Dura_Ace said:

    <

    It even works on tories!

    I seem to be an ecological internationalist centrist Marxist. Your mum warned you against people like me.
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    Not sure this is a very smart move ...
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1167719775230922752

    Surely that could cost them the election? If well known MPs stand as independents or are forced to defect... the Tories could do without losing ANY seats given how Scotland looks.

    Also in the event of no election they would be throwing away control of the House.

    It also shows just how worried the government is that it could be prevented form taking us out on No Deal.

    But, yes, if Johnson ends up creating an anti-No Deal Conservative Party, that could cause a few problems for the Tories.

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    eekeek Posts: 25,028

    Not sure this is a very smart move ...
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1167719775230922752

    Surely that could cost them the election? If well known MPs stand as independents or are forced to defect... the Tories could do without losing ANY seats given how Scotland looks.

    Also in the event of no election they would be throwing away control of the House.
    I seem to remember that to maximise payoffs MPs need to seek re-election.

    Equally I think the Lib Dems need to ensure there is a suitable "Refugee" policy implemented to give wavering MPs an incentive to switch party.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be that the one development the GFA really struggles with is the growth of those in NI - mainly from the Unionist side - who now describe themselves as non-aligned. You do not get to 58% support for the backstop solely with Nationalist/Republican backing.

    I don't blame them. I have more sympathy with Calvinistic Presbyterianism than most PBers. Even so, I can see that anyone in Northern Ireland wanting a more socially liberal, tolerant place to live looks enviously south of the border. Ireland 50 years ago was an inward looking social backwater. Those days have gone.

    The Irish tricolour has the white of peace between the orange and the green. It will get there in the end, and the modernisation of Ireland over recent decades will be its foundation.

    One of the few positives of the rampant English nationalism of present times is the ending of our colonialism in Ireland and Scotland. Wales may have to wait a bit longer.
    There is no colonialism. Northern Irish and Scottish Britons have exactly the same rights and privileges as the English do in a single union.

    The issue arises due to disproportionately in population size. Because England is 80%+ of the population of the UK it tends to dominate (albeit it didn't do so under Gordon Brown's administration) but that absolutely isn't colonialism, and there is much devolution to compensate as well.
    The history of Wales, Ireland and Scotland is one of English conquest, that much is surely undeniable.

    Certainly there are equal rights now, but the legacy of those conquests live on. I am not a Nationalist, and find Nationalist politics intrinsically divisive, but I do understand their appeal. Perhaps it is because I have ancestry from all 4 home nations that I am less well disposed to English Nationalism than most.
    In that case you might want to choose your words a little more carefully.

    Language like you used earlier about English colonialism only stokes the flames of nationalism.
    The truth can be a bit inflamatory at times, that doesn't mean to say it's better to pretend it didn't happen.
    All nations have something to be ashamed of in their histories.

    That doesn't mean they should be defined by them.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281

    Not sure this is a very smart move ...
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1167719775230922752

    I suspect that BJ is now wondering quite what he's unleashed with Domski in control.
This discussion has been closed.