it will be like banging on about WWII when I was a child...
...the basis for the political beliefs of millions of baby boomers?
Precisely!
For baby boomers WWII is much more real. Its something they, while not experiencing, perceived through the actions of their parents generation - and the films and media they grew up with were dominated by it.
As a child of the 80s, let alone younger generations, it is weird and odd. We don't go around saying "Don't mention the war" while doing nothing but, it is a Godwin, something to be avoided because to do so makes you look silly and weird.
That is what time has done. The same with how Brexit will be normalised. Time and inertia drives us away from old battles.
Nonsense. Children of the 80s did not vote for Brexit. The boomers did. The Millennial positive memory of the EU will remain and define our generation.
Your views are not typical.
You both need to stop talking in absolutes. Substantial numbers of all generations voted both ways. Even the youngest voters were only 70/30 weren’t they? The country is split across all boundaries, the precise proportions just vary a bit.
Bozo failing to do interviews, and not putting up ministers to defend his suspension of democracy shows the contempt that he has for the voting public.
Democracy and mass peaceful protests haven't worked.
Parliament can still stop him. Your tilting toward violent protest is beginnging to look downright eager and is quite worrying.
When people are denied democratic expression, they shift to other means. I would expect the same with Revoke.
You don't seem to be expecting it, you seem to be welcoming it, willing it.
No, I am merely expecting it. Not all are as pacific as myself. A bit of civil obedience is my limit, but when democratic expressions are guillotined, people react, like the Gilet Jaunes that the right wing populists were cheering on here so recently.
In fact @HYUFD was positively squealing with delight that Macron was experiencing such protests.
it will be like banging on about WWII when I was a child...
...the basis for the political beliefs of millions of baby boomers?
Precisely!
For baby boomers WWII is much more real. Its something they, while not experiencing, perceived through the actions of their parents generation - and the films and media they grew up with were dominated by it.
As a child of the 80s, let alone younger generations, it is weird and odd. We don't go around saying "Don't mention the war" while doing nothing but, it is a Godwin, something to be avoided because to do so makes you look silly and weird.
That is what time has done. The same with how Brexit will be normalised. Time and inertia drives us away from old battles.
Nonsense. Children of the 80s did not vote for Brexit. The boomers did. The Millennial positive memory of the EU will remain and define our generation.
Your views are not typical.
You both need to stop talking in absolutes. Substantial numbers of all generations voted both ways. Even the youngest voters were only 70/30 weren’t they? The country is split across all boundaries, the precise proportions just vary a bit.
And here’s another fact for the elderly pearl clutchers who think life for Milennials is all avocado on toast:
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
it will be like banging on about WWII when I was a child...
...the basis for the political beliefs of millions of baby boomers?
Precisely!
For baby boomers WWII is much more real. Its something they, while not experiencing, perceived through the actions of their parents generation - and the films and media they grew up with were dominated by it.
As a child of the 80s, let alone younger generations, it is weird and odd. We don't go around saying "Don't mention the war" while doing nothing but, it is a Godwin, something to be avoided because to do so makes you look silly and weird.
That is what time has done. The same with how Brexit will be normalised. Time and inertia drives us away from old battles.
Nonsense. Children of the 80s did not vote for Brexit. The boomers did. The Millennial positive memory of the EU will remain and define our generation.
Your views are not typical.
I never said that children of the 80s voted for Brexit, I said banging on about the war is weird to my generation - while normal for the Boomers.
Similarly over time banging on about Europe will be weirdly obsessive, even if some in our generation still do it. Though overtime even our generation will evolve, don't forget the Boomers themselves voted to remain in Europe first time around, while voting to leave four decades later. Minds aren't set in concrete.
it will be like banging on about WWII when I was a child...
...the basis for the political beliefs of millions of baby boomers?
Precisely!
For baby boomers WWII is much more real. Its something they, while not experiencing, perceived through the actions of their parents generation - and the films and media they grew up with were dominated by it.
As a child of the 80s, let alone younger generations, it is weird and odd. We don't go around saying "Don't mention the war" while doing nothing but, it is a Godwin, something to be avoided because to do so makes you look silly and weird.
That is what time has done. The same with how Brexit will be normalised. Time and inertia drives us away from old battles.
Nonsense. Children of the 80s did not vote for Brexit. The boomers did. The Millennial positive memory of the EU will remain and define our generation.
Your views are not typical.
Brexit is exclusively the preserve of the elderly, the jobless, the insane, and the lobotomised.
Young Brexiters (ie anyone under 50) are an offence unto God.
And here’s another fact for the elderly pearl clutchers who think life for Milennials is all avocado on toast:
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
Fucking frightening, isn’t it?
Not in the slightest bit enough apparently. I've noticed the weather is not the same. Has anyone else?
Bozo failing to do interviews, and not putting up ministers to defend his suspension of democracy shows the contempt that he has for the voting public.
Democracy and mass peaceful protests haven't worked.
Parliament can still stop him. Your tilting toward violent protest is beginnging to look downright eager and is quite worrying.
When people are denied democratic expression, they shift to other means. I would expect the same with Revoke.
You don't seem to be expecting it, you seem to be welcoming it, willing it.
No, I am merely expecting it. Not all are as pacific as myself. A bit of civil obedience is my limit, but when democratic expressions are guillotined, people react, like the Gilet Jaunes that the right wing populists were cheering on here so recently.
How are democratic expressions guillotined?
Are people being prevented from campaigning to rejoin the EU after we exit?
The hysteria and panic from Remainers is because they knew deep down, despite what Monsieurs Meeks and Galloway pretend, that post-Brexit it will be very difficult to convince the public to reverse course. Easier to cancel an action than to reverse it.
31/10/19 is when Remainerism dies and Rejoinerism will be a pale imitation.
And here’s another fact for the elderly pearl clutchers who think life for Milennials is all avocado on toast:
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
Bozo failing to do interviews, and not putting up ministers to defend his suspension of democracy shows the contempt that he has for the voting public.
Democracy and mass peaceful protests haven't worked.
Parliament can still stop him. Your tilting toward violent protest is beginnging to look downright eager and is quite worrying.
When people are denied democratic expression, they shift to other means. I would expect the same with Revoke.
You don't seem to be expecting it, you seem to be welcoming it, willing it.
No, I am merely expecting it. Not all are as pacific as myself. A bit of civil obedience is my limit, but when democratic expressions are guillotined, people react, like the Gilet Jaunes that the right wing populists were cheering on here so recently.
Isn't proroguation about the Queen's Speech and moving "on to other vital issues such as the NHS, education, jobs etc"?
You mean the kind of issues that people care about? The ones that have been utterly crowded out by a Euro obsession? For 4 years?
That's been my point for the discussion with Galloway the past hour.
After the season finale of Brexit has reached its conclusion people are going to want to move on to these kind of issues not keep harping back to Europe.
Europe used to be a niche issue as OGH was keen to point out frequently in thread headers of surveys at the time. Post-Brexit it will revert over time back to being a niche issue. Public patience with arguing over Brexit is reaching its limit and however we do finally Brexit a weary public will accept that initially, then over time it will be normalised.
Hence the sound and fury now. Because this is the real war, not the future. Whoever wins now, wins.
And here’s another fact for the elderly pearl clutchers who think life for Milennials is all avocado on toast:
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
it will be like banging on about WWII when I was a child...
...the basis for the political beliefs of millions of baby boomers?
Precisely!
For baby boomers WWII is much more real. Its something they, while not experiencing, perceived through the actions of their parents generation - and the films and media they grew up with were dominated by it.
As a child of the 80s, let alone younger generations, it is weird and odd. We don't go around saying "Don't mention the war" while doing nothing but, it is a Godwin, something to be avoided because to do so makes you look silly and weird.
That is what time has done. The same with how Brexit will be normalised. Time and inertia drives us away from old battles.
Nonsense. Children of the 80s did not vote for Brexit. The boomers did. The Millennial positive memory of the EU will remain and define our generation.
Your views are not typical.
Brexit is exclusively the preserve of the elderly, the jobless, the insane, and the lobotomised.
Young Brexiters (ie anyone under 50) are an offence unto God.
I will be sure to tell those under 50 in my office tomorrow of your disapproval.
And here’s another fact for the elderly pearl clutchers who think life for Milennials is all avocado on toast:
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
Fucking frightening, isn’t it?
We have records going back 10,000 years?
Colour me surprised
Yes we do. Are you a climate scientist or summat?
Nowhere near the level of accuracy of today's measurements though to be fair.
And here’s another fact for the elderly pearl clutchers who think life for Milennials is all avocado on toast:
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
Fucking frightening, isn’t it?
We have records going back 10,000 years?
Colour me surprised
Yes we do. Are you a climate scientist or summat?
Show me these records of precipitation and storm activity then
Bozo failing to do interviews, and not putting up ministers to defend his suspension of democracy shows the contempt that he has for the voting public.
Democracy and mass peaceful protests haven't worked.
Parliament can still stop him. Your tilting toward violent protest is beginnging to look downright eager and is quite worrying.
When people are denied democratic expression, they shift to other means. I would expect the same with Revoke.
You don't seem to be expecting it, you seem to be welcoming it, willing it.
No, I am merely expecting it. Not all are as pacific as myself. A bit of civil obedience is my limit, but when democratic expressions are guillotined, people react, like the Gilet Jaunes that the right wing populists were cheering on here so recently.
How are democratic expressions guillotined?
Are people being prevented from campaigning to rejoin the EU after we exit?
The hysteria and panic from Remainers is because they knew deep down, despite what Monsieurs Meeks and Galloway pretend, that post-Brexit it will be very difficult to convince the public to reverse course. Easier to cancel an action than to reverse it.
31/10/19 is when Remainerism dies and Rejoinerism will be a pale imitation.
Indeed. I'm sure post 31/10/19 Lib-Dems and Greens will be 100% rejoin (with or without a refernedum) and if they can get a majority government on the prospectus then good luck to them.
Great thread! Have we ever had a more sleazy cabinet in anyone's lifetime? You wouldn't touch any of them with a ten foot poll. Johnson's imprimatur oozes from every orifice.
JRM was all over the telly this morning wiping the floor with air-head TV "personalities" like Richard Bacon.
Good heavens the government are appealing over the collective heads of rent-a-mobbers -Paul Mason's admission a number of the older ones were present at the 1990 poll tax riots is instructive-along with the wailing political, legal and educational establishment, social media keyboard warriors and even the never ending parade of angsty PB thread writers. Whatever next?
Bozo failing to do interviews, and not putting up ministers to defend his suspension of democracy shows the contempt that he has for the voting public.
Democracy and mass peaceful protests haven't worked.
Parliament can still stop him. Your tilting toward violent protest is beginnging to look downright eager and is quite worrying.
When people are denied democratic expression, they shift to other means. I would expect the same with Revoke.
You don't seem to be expecting it, you seem to be welcoming it, willing it.
No, I am merely expecting it. Not all are as pacific as myself. A bit of civil obedience is my limit, but when democratic expressions are guillotined, people react, like the Gilet Jaunes that the right wing populists were cheering on here so recently.
How are democratic expressions guillotined?
Are people being prevented from campaigning to rejoin the EU after we exit?
The hysteria and panic from Remainers is because they knew deep down, despite what Monsieurs Meeks and Galloway pretend, that post-Brexit it will be very difficult to convince the public to reverse course. Easier to cancel an action than to reverse it.
31/10/19 is when Remainerism dies and Rejoinerism will be a pale imitation.
By contrast it will be the day when the bullshit and bollocks will be revealed in all its glory. No Deal? Bring it on. It's so wonderful, even its proponents just pretend it is a tactic.
And here’s another fact for the elderly pearl clutchers who think life for Milennials is all avocado on toast:
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
Fucking frightening, isn’t it?
We have records going back 10,000 years?
Colour me surprised
Yes we do. Are you a climate scientist or summat?
Show me these records of precipitation and storm activity then
I am not a climate scientist. Neither are you. Presume you can Google?
See this is crucial. Is the weather the same as when you were a kid or not? I remember 80 F Phew what a scorcher headlines. That is now routine. Vast thunderstorms were once in a Summer. Snow to low levels for many days each Winter was common in the 70s That is climate change.
Leaflets claiming that new relationship education lessons will encourage primary school children to masturbate have been handed out in east London, the BBC has learned.
For what it is worth I do think Boris will win the next election. I do however think he will fail to unite the country and that his and his party’s legacy will be toxic beyond belief.
I don't think its possible to unite the country. I think its possible to win and vanquish your opponents and I'll settle for that.
How do you vanquish half the country?
You don't.
You vanquish your active political opponents, get your policy over the line and see it become normal. The half of the country that opposed you on that moves on to the future battles and debates and before long what won is now accepted wisdom. Eventually those who still wish to refight the lost battle are seen as pastiche unless the wheel turns full cicle in which case they are the new revolutionaries rather than the old guard.
After we Brexit life will move on. We'll go back to arguing over schools and hospitals and all other stuff like that. Some future next big thing will divide the country and half will line up on each side and we'll forget about Brexit as we forgot about secondary picketing.
The idea of victory and vanquishing your opponents is an ugly one that gets us into divisive, zero sum politics.
Leaflets claiming that new relationship education lessons will encourage primary school children to masturbate have been handed out in east London, the BBC has learned.
Doubtless they would have applauded the Fuhrer , had they been given the opportunity. Many will adore Dominic Cummings - perhaps the Julius Streicher of the Johnson regime.
For what it is worth I do think Boris will win the next election. I do however think he will fail to unite the country and that his and his party’s legacy will be toxic beyond belief.
I don't think its possible to unite the country. I think its possible to win and vanquish your opponents and I'll settle for that.
How do you vanquish half the country?
You don't.
You vanquish your active political opponents, get your policy over the line and see it become normal. The half of the country that opposed you on that moves on to the future battles and debates and before long what won is now accepted wisdom. Eventually those who still wish to refight the lost battle are seen as pastiche unless the wheel turns full cicle in which case they are the new revolutionaries rather than the old guard.
After we Brexit life will move on. We'll go back to arguing over schools and hospitals and all other stuff like that. Some future next big thing will divide the country and half will line up on each side and we'll forget about Brexit as we forgot about secondary picketing.
The idea of victory and vanquishing your opponents is an ugly one that gets us into divisive, zero sum politics.
Divisive politics is a good thing but not zero sum. Competition is healthy.
While leaks have always occured the realtime leak culture under May was absurd, no way to run a government and its good someone is getting to grips with it.
Andrew Lilico just said on LBC that even if Parliament passes law to prevent No Deal Brexit, Govt can ignore it.
Reason: Staying in the EU requires the spending of money. And only the Govt can propose the spending of money (which then subsequently gets approved by Parliament).
But Govt has to initiate it. If it doesn't, money can't be spent.
No idea if he's correct (ie there literally can't be any exceptions) or if there is any way around the above.
Andrew Lilico just said on LBC that even if Parliament passes law to prevent No Deal Brexit, Govt can ignore it.
Reason: Staying in the EU requires the spending of money. And only the Govt can propose the spending of money (which then subsequently gets approved by Parliament).
But Govt has to initiate it. If it doesn't, money can't be spent.
No idea if he's correct (ie there literally can't be any exceptions) or if there is any way around the above.
Interesting. Does a bill commanding the government to revoke A50 constitute a money bill?
Andrew Lilico just said on LBC that even if Parliament passes law to prevent No Deal Brexit, Govt can ignore it.
Reason: Staying in the EU requires the spending of money. And only the Govt can propose the spending of money (which then subsequently gets approved by Parliament). But Govt has to initiate it. If it doesn't, money can't be spent.
No idea if he's correct (ie there literally can't be any exceptions) or if there is any way around the above.
I think he's right. Yet another daft rule; the Commons voted for Afzal Khan's boundary review bill against Gvt will and the government refused to grant a money resolution so it couldn't start Committee stage. Leaving it in limbo, the committee has met weekly since. Unable to debate the bill. Theresa May cut plenty of constitutional corners herself; salami-slicing what becomes acceptable.
I'm sure there's a way round it, suspend a standing order or amend the budget so that it becomes the status quo etc. But it's another daft rule to load things in the Governments favour that really shouldn't be there,
Andrew Lilico just said on LBC that even if Parliament passes law to prevent No Deal Brexit, Govt can ignore it.
Reason: Staying in the EU requires the spending of money. And only the Govt can propose the spending of money (which then subsequently gets approved by Parliament). But Govt has to initiate it. If it doesn't, money can't be spent.
No idea if he's correct (ie there literally can't be any exceptions) or if there is any way around the above.
I think he's right. Yet another daft rule; the Commons voted for Afzal Khan's boundary review bill against Gvt will and the government refused to grant a money resolution so it couldn't start Committee stage. Leaving it in limbo, the committee has met weekly since. Unable to debate the bill. Theresa May cut plenty of constitutional corners herself; salami-slicing what becomes acceptable.
I'm sure there's a way round it, suspend a standing order or amend the budget so that it becomes the status quo etc. But it's another daft rule to load things in the Governments favour that really shouldn't be there,
A quick Google suggests a money bill is one concerned *exclusively* with raising or spending money, and that if there is uncertainty on the point, the person who decides whether a bill is a money bill or not is the Speaker.
Andrew Lilico just said on LBC that even if Parliament passes law to prevent No Deal Brexit, Govt can ignore it.
Reason: Staying in the EU requires the spending of money. And only the Govt can propose the spending of money (which then subsequently gets approved by Parliament). But Govt has to initiate it. If it doesn't, money can't be spent.
No idea if he's correct (ie there literally can't be any exceptions) or if there is any way around the above.
I think he's right. Yet another daft rule; the Commons voted for Afzal Khan's boundary review bill against Gvt will and the government refused to grant a money resolution so it couldn't start Committee stage. Leaving it in limbo, the committee has met weekly since. Unable to debate the bill. Theresa May cut plenty of constitutional corners herself; salami-slicing what becomes acceptable.
I'm sure there's a way round it, suspend a standing order or amend the budget so that it becomes the status quo etc. But it's another daft rule to load things in the Governments favour that really shouldn't be there,
A quick Google suggests a money bill is one concerned *exclusively* with raising or spending money, and that if there is uncertainty on the point, the person who decides whether a bill is a money bill or not is the Speaker.
'The results are as follows: Beatrice Wishart, Scottish Liberal Democrats 5,659; Tom Wills, Scottish National Party 3,822; Ryan Thomson, independent 1,266; Peter Tait, independent 31; Michael Stout, independent 134; Ian Scott, independent 66; Debra Nicolson, Scottish Green Party 189; Stuart Martin, UKIP 60; Brydon Goodlad, Conservative and Unionist Party 425; Johan Adamson, Scottish Labour and Co-operative Party 152'.
Nothing remarkable there, no? Looks like solid performances from LDs and SNP, bit poor from Labour and Con, but pretty much what you'd expect, I think.
Re the above, I don't think it's a question of being a Money Bill.
Yes, the Speaker decides if a Bill is a Money Bill. If it is a Money Bill, then it can't be amended in the Lords.
However the spending of money requires a Money Resolution - which is quite different. Hence the point re Boundary Review Bill - nobody was suggesting that was a Money Bill.
1.28% for Labour is the lowest share I've ever seen for one of the two main parties.
In sixth place. Worst I saw predicted was fourth.
On such low numbers it doesn't mean much but certainly no signs of a SLab revival in Shetland.
Looks like SNP & Indy took a big bite out of the LD majority. SNP apparently threw a lot of resources into it so they must have thought they had a chance.
1.28% for Labour is the lowest share I've ever seen for one of the two main parties.
In sixth place. Worst I saw predicted was fourth.
SNP apparently threw a lot of resources into it so they must have thought they had a chance.
But going backwards from the SindyRef vote (even with the Green vote) (on a high turnout) cannot be that encouraging for the "inevitable momentum" story....
Of course without Nicola's 3 visits they might have fallen further back....
1.28% for Labour is the lowest share I've ever seen for one of the two main parties.
In sixth place. Worst I saw predicted was fourth.
SNP apparently threw a lot of resources into it so they must have thought they had a chance.
But going backwards from the SindyRef vote (even with the Green vote) (on a high turnout) cannot be that encouraging for the "inevitable momentum" story....
Of course without Nicola's 3 visits they might have fallen further back....
Probably. Somehow I don't think a couple of Sassenachs are going to be able extrapolate too much from a by election result in the Shetlands though, Carlotta, no matter how hard we try.
Doubtless they would have applauded the Fuhrer , had they been given the opportunity. Many will adore Dominic Cummings - perhaps the Julius Streicher of the Johnson regime.
I looked up Streicher - a nasty piece of detritus, but of moderate intelligence it seems so the parallel with Cummings breaks down there.
Recent political events in the UK feel a little too close for comfort to some aspects of the rise of the Third Reich. Whilst I am sure there is no need to panic, I wouldn't be complacent either. There is no law to say it couldn't happen here.
Time for our MPs to stand up and be counted. Time for us all maybe.
The 'Yes' Vote in 2016 was 36.3% So if the Nat had won 'Shetland would have been taken out of the EU UK against its will" Unquote.
No doubt we will be having a thread-header about how that under-performing LibDem Scot, Swinson, must now be on the way out - having lost 20% vote share in, er, Scotland.
"let’s assume that somehow Boris Johnson throws all those sixes and gets Brexit over the line (almost certainly on a no-deal basis because how is he going to get a deal approved with Parliament so decisively against him?)"
So Boris gets a revised EU deal - yet Parliament is going to vote against it to spite him?
Well, it's a view. A quite insane view. But a view.
"let’s assume that somehow Boris Johnson throws all those sixes and gets Brexit over the line (almost certainly on a no-deal basis because how is he going to get a deal approved with Parliament so decisively against him?)"
So Boris gets a revised EU deal - yet Parliament is going to vote against it to spite him?
Well, it's a view. A quite insane view. But a view.
It'll be interesting to see what the Labour party do in that situation. The last chance to deliver Brexit.
"let’s assume that somehow Boris Johnson throws all those sixes and gets Brexit over the line (almost certainly on a no-deal basis because how is he going to get a deal approved with Parliament so decisively against him?)"
So Boris gets a revised EU deal - yet Parliament is going to vote against it to spite him?
Well, it's a view. A quite insane view. But a view.
It wouldn't be to spite him, it would be because nothing could convince the Spartans and their remainer allies to vote for a deal no matter what is in it.
Only the former get what they want in that scenario but the latter avoid that which they dont want the most, which is voting to leave the EU (A50 triggering notwithstanding).
That is more vital than avoiding no deal - we know that is true or more of them would already be saying they would vote for WA, and would have done so last time. Nothing indicates such people would back a deal in order to avoid no deal, they only wish to avoid no deal through a path leading to remain.
Likely because they believe it might make rejoining easier, which is better than a deal.
In short, it's not all about Boris. Hes just helping justify certain choices.
"let’s assume that somehow Boris Johnson throws all those sixes and gets Brexit over the line (almost certainly on a no-deal basis because how is he going to get a deal approved with Parliament so decisively against him?)"
So Boris gets a revised EU deal - yet Parliament is going to vote against it to spite him?
Well, it's a view. A quite insane view. But a view.
Parliament isn't like one dude, it's a collection of MPs, and the MPs are in parties.
Would Corbyn vote for a deal, ending this situation where he's weirdly potentially a month away from being PM, despite being supported by maybe 20% of the voters, and the other 80% variously thinking he's useless or evil? I doubt it.
Would there be a *huge* Labour backbench rebellion against Corbyn to help Boris? Possibly, but probably not.
Would the DUP vote for what's most likely basically the same deal with "backstop" scribbled out and replaced with "independent-arbitration-ordered emergency buffer"? I wouldn't rule it out but I don't think so.
So Boris probably needs the whole Tory Party to back him. But he's nailed himself to the proposition that without a deal he'll go No Deal. So why on earth would the ERG compromise, when they're literally weeks away from winning?
"let’s assume that somehow Boris Johnson throws all those sixes and gets Brexit over the line (almost certainly on a no-deal basis because how is he going to get a deal approved with Parliament so decisively against him?)"
So Boris gets a revised EU deal - yet Parliament is going to vote against it to spite him?
Well, it's a view. A quite insane view. But a view.
It'll be interesting to see what the Labour party do in that situation. The last chance to deliver Brexit.
If Boris gets a revised deal, then no doubt Laour would try to run the line, "Well, if BORIS can get a better deal, imagine how much better OUR revised deal would be!" But basically, the wheels would fall off their "only we can renegotiate" schtick. And then, a whole bunch of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats are going to have to decide: Do I FINALLY admit to my voters that I am never going to pass any Brexit deal? And give Boris the perfect brush with which to tar the Labour Party? No. Labour whipping would break down at that point would be my assessment - and a significant number would at least abstain.
Abstaining might still be enough to leave the arithmetic as a Tory Leavers v Tory Remainers fight on Boris' Brexit or Not. But that issue facing Labour MPs is in even sharper relief for Tory rebels. Are people like Hammond going to vote down a revised deal? Because it's Boris' revised deal? I'm saying no.
If Boris gets a revised deal, then no doubt Laour would try to run the line, "Well, if BORIS can get a better deal, imagine how much better OUR revised deal would be!" But basically, the wheels would fall off their "only we can renegotiate" schtick. And then, a whole bunch of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats are going to have to decide: Do I FINALLY admit to my voters that I am never going to pass any Brexit deal? And give Boris the perfect brush with which to tar the Labour Party? No. Labour whipping would break down at that point would be my assessment - and a significant number would at least abstain.
Labour's schtick has never been "only we can renegotiate", it's "this is a Tory tax evader's deal that puts jobs at risk". No reason to change that record.
It's certainly possible that quite a few Labour leavers would jump, but unless the *Tory* leavers support him there simply aren't enough of them. And the question the Tory leavers are being asked is "would you like to compromise, or would you rather win?"
"let’s assume that somehow Boris Johnson throws all those sixes and gets Brexit over the line (almost certainly on a no-deal basis because how is he going to get a deal approved with Parliament so decisively against him?)"
So Boris gets a revised EU deal - yet Parliament is going to vote against it to spite him?
Well, it's a view. A quite insane view. But a view.
It'll be interesting to see what the Labour party do in that situation. The last chance to deliver Brexit.
If Boris gets a revised deal, then no doubt Laour would try to run the line, "Well, if BORIS can get a better deal, imagine how much better OUR revised deal would be!" But basically, the wheels would fall off their "only we can renegotiate" schtick. And then, a whole bunch of Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats are going to have to decide: Do I FINALLY admit to my voters that I am never going to pass any Brexit deal? And give Boris the perfect brush with which to tar the Labour Party? No. Labour whipping would break down at that point would be my assessment - and a significant number would at least abstain.
Abstaining might still be enough to leave the arithmetic as a Tory Leavers v Tory Remainers fight on Boris' Brexit or Not. But that issue facing Labour MPs is in even sharper relief for Tory rebels. Are people like Hammond going to vote down a revised deal? Because it's Boris' revised deal? I'm saying no.
"A Britain that had Brexited in such a way would be hopelessly and irremediably riven. The decision would be seen by what in all probability would be a clear majority as illegitimate and unconstitutional. A policy that no one had voted for would have been imposed by an unelected Prime Minister leading a government that was opposed in Parliament by a clear majority, and only because the Prime Minister had abandoned all democratic norms.
In such circumstances, you could easily envisage widespread civil unrest, the more so because there might well be tangible disruption as a result of the Brexit process itself. And you cannot easily envisage the country ever coming back together to forge a new consensus. Boris Johnson would be a hero to his elderly support base but a hate figure for future generations. Scotland and Northern Ireland would both be eyeing the exit door from the United Kingdom in very short order. What was left would inevitably rejoin the EU at some point, with many no doubt resentful but out of options."
I agree with much of this from the header. However, what is equally true is that failure to Brexit in some form is very likely to produce the same result. Both sides in the 52/48 split have to be reflected in the denouement of this awful period, Both sides.
Yes, I agree and said as much earlier. I think Alastair would too. As he has often said, there are no good outcomes from here, although some are less bad than others.
Interesting piece Alastair. What I don't understand is, if this is certain to stop Brexit, why all the anger from Remainers?
Just because you may get seriously punished for trying to cheat, and game the system, does not make cheating a good idea.
The attempt by Johnson to use constitutional chicanery to cheat the House of Commons, and by extension the voters, may well bring the house down on the Tories heads', but that still doesn't mean it's a good idea.
The 'Yes' Vote in 2016 was 36.3% So if the Nat had won 'Shetland would have been taken out of the EU UK against its will" Unquote.
No doubt we will be having a thread-header about how that under-performing LibDem Scot, Swinson, must now be on the way out - having lost 20% vote share in, er, Scotland.
Or not.
Don't know that you can extract much from Shetland in terms of typicality but a 20% vote drop for the LDs if it did apply on the mainland would not bode well for Ms Swinson's seat surely?
Yes, I agree and said as much earlier. I think Alastair would too. As he has often said, there are no good outcomes from here, although some are less bad than others.
Maybe a unity government committed to a Brexit deal is the only way forward. I'd love Ken Clarke to be PM. Therefore of course it won't happen
The 'Yes' Vote in 2016 was 36.3% So if the Nat had won 'Shetland would have been taken out of the EU UK against its will" Unquote.
No doubt we will be having a thread-header about how that under-performing LibDem Scot, Swinson, must now be on the way out - having lost 20% vote share in, er, Scotland.
Or not.
Most definitely "not", :-D
In Shetland, like much of rural Scotland, politics is personal, and this is why party politics is done so differently- if it is done at all.
In fact, in the face of a strong SNP campaign, the Lib Dems have performed very well indeed.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
I think it’s very likely that proroguing from next week till Nov was their plan, and the Palace insisted they compromise on mid-Sept to mid-Oct
F1: Spa weekend kicks off today. Worth noting that Albon's got a penalty (it was uncertain earlier but I think he's going to start at the back). Perversely, that might be good for him as it dramatically reduces expectations and pressure on his first race with the big team. Qualifying's a theoretical exercise and if he scores, they'll likely be ok with that.
Should be warm Saturday and hot Sunday which might compromise Mercedes.
Yes, I agree and said as much earlier. I think Alastair would too. As he has often said, there are no good outcomes from here, although some are less bad than others.
Maybe a unity government committed to a Brexit deal is the only way forward. I'd love Ken Clarke to be PM. Therefore of course it won't happen
It's an indictment of our political system that KC was never made Party Leader, but then I recall Labour being similarly reluctant to appoint Denis Healey to lead his Party. What a waste of talent.
Clarke's preferred solution to the current predicament is, I believe, a long deferment in which the Leave Team draw up a practical plan and timetable for withdrawal. I'd certainly accept that. It's what should have happened from the outset. We are certainly not going to see such a rational approach now.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
I think it’s very likely that proroguing from next week till Nov was their plan, and the Palace insisted they compromise on mid-Sept to mid-Oct
If that's true, and I think it probably is, then there have been some pretty dishonest remarks from the Government about only shortening the timetable by four days or so.
Yes, I agree and said as much earlier. I think Alastair would too. As he has often said, there are no good outcomes from here, although some are less bad than others.
Maybe a unity government committed to a Brexit deal is the only way forward. I'd love Ken Clarke to be PM. Therefore of course it won't happen
It's an indictment of our political system that KC was never made Party Leader, but then I recall Labour being similarly reluctant to appoint Denis Healey to lead his Party. What a waste of talent.
Clarke's preferred solution to the current predicament is, I believe, a long deferment in which the Leave Team draw up a practical plan and timetable for withdrawal. I'd certainly accept that. It's what should have happened from the outset. We are certainly not going to see such a rational approach now.
Good morning everyone. It is here, weather-wise; about all that can be described as good. On topic, did Cummings, in his Leave campaigning, ever outline the effects of 'Leave-with-No-Deal' or 'Crash Out' scenaria? All I seem to recall are 'promises' of Norway- or EFTA-like arrangements.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
I think it’s very likely that proroguing from next week till Nov was their plan, and the Palace insisted they compromise on mid-Sept to mid-Oct
If that's true, and I think it probably is, then there have been some pretty dishonest remarks from the Government about only shortening the timetable by four days or so.
Every statement by the Govt is dishonest. I wouldn't trust any of them.. Its a very worrying time for the Country.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
I think it’s very likely that proroguing from next week till Nov was their plan, and the Palace insisted they compromise on mid-Sept to mid-Oct
If that's true, and I think it probably is, then there have been some pretty dishonest remarks from the Government about only shortening the timetable by four days or so.
Every statement by the Govt is dishonest. I wouldn't trust any of them.. Its a very worrying time for the Country.
On Monday night, Downing Street was still telling the BBC that proroguing was not being considered as an option.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
I think it’s very likely that proroguing from next week till Nov was their plan, and the Palace insisted they compromise on mid-Sept to mid-Oct
HMG and HMQ bartering the dates Parliament sits and doesn't sit? That's a big shout.
The rest not so much. May didn't much bring a knife to a gun fight as walk about unarmed and aimless waiting to be hit. Which she was, repeatedly. This government is fighting back with the same ferocity that the remainers have been using and they are playing to win. It has a purpose and a determination which is invigorating.
The notion that those remainers who voted down May's deal, a deal that left us in the SM and CU for the transitional period with every chance of that being the permanent state of affairs, indeed with a backstop applied to the whole of the UK which would have had that effect if nothing else was agreed, were ever going to come around to accept a democratic vote and come together looks more fanciful with every day that passes. These people are every bit as maniacal as the nutters in the ERG. To blame Boris or his government for that is absurd. We will all come to regret the rejection of that deal but Boris is right to fight for the democratic decision of this country.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
I think it’s very likely that proroguing from next week till Nov was their plan, and the Palace insisted they compromise on mid-Sept to mid-Oct
It is more likely that next week is about persuading ambivalent Tories to vote against the government. It seems they really are that stupid. I suppose the proponents of any bill want it to be a money bill so it is immune from the HoL. Clerarly there is not going to be any money bill so presumably there will be 300 amendments in the Lords and the silly bill falls.
To my mind leaving then joining into the Euro would be fine. But I accept I'm somewhat Sui generis here
If you also got to use the Euro then that would be rejoining on better terms not worse, but I doubt anyone wants to lumber the Eurozone with an unstable new member still working through its post-imperial issues while it's got enough problems of its own.
More likely rejoining would just be the status quo ante minus the rebate.
The rest not so much. May didn't much bring a knife to a gun fight as walk about unarmed and aimless waiting to be hit. Which she was, repeatedly. This government is fighting back with the same ferocity that the remainers have been using and they are playing to win. It has a purpose and a determination which is invigorating.
The notion that those remainers who voted down May's deal, a deal that left us in the SM and CU for the transitional period with every chance of that being the permanent state of affairs, indeed with a backstop applied to the whole of the UK which would have had that effect if nothing else was agreed, were ever going to come around to accept a democratic vote and come together looks more fanciful with every day that passes. These people are every bit as maniacal as the nutters in the ERG. To blame Boris or his government for that is absurd. We will all come to regret the rejection of that deal but Boris is right to fight for the democratic decision of this country.
In order to save this democracy it was necessary to destroy it.
And you studiously avoid the “then what?” question which is the essence of my point. How is this going to settle anything? It’s going to do the opposite.
Great thread header, very enjoyable read. I hope Alistair is correct that Johnson and Cummings have got this all wrong. But I worry.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
I think it’s very likely that proroguing from next week till Nov was their plan, and the Palace insisted they compromise on mid-Sept to mid-Oct
And insisted that there was a legitimate reason for doing so hence the queens speech
Comments
What could possibly go wrong???
“For anyone under 30, the experience of a stable climate is entirely unknown. Not a single month in their lifetime has fallen within the limited range of temperature, precipitation or storm activity that governed the planet for the previous 10,000 years.”
Fucking frightening, isn’t it?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167217087196123141?s=21
Similarly over time banging on about Europe will be weirdly obsessive, even if some in our generation still do it. Though overtime even our generation will evolve, don't forget the Boomers themselves voted to remain in Europe first time around, while voting to leave four decades later. Minds aren't set in concrete.
JRM was all over the telly this morning wiping the floor with air-head TV "personalities" like Richard Bacon.
Are people being prevented from campaigning to rejoin the EU after we exit?
The hysteria and panic from Remainers is because they knew deep down, despite what Monsieurs Meeks and Galloway pretend, that post-Brexit it will be very difficult to convince the public to reverse course. Easier to cancel an action than to reverse it.
31/10/19 is when Remainerism dies and Rejoinerism will be a pale imitation.
Colour me surprised
After the season finale of Brexit has reached its conclusion people are going to want to move on to these kind of issues not keep harping back to Europe.
Europe used to be a niche issue as OGH was keen to point out frequently in thread headers of surveys at the time. Post-Brexit it will revert over time back to being a niche issue. Public patience with arguing over Brexit is reaching its limit and however we do finally Brexit a weary public will accept that initially, then over time it will be normalised.
Hence the sound and fury now. Because this is the real war, not the future. Whoever wins now, wins.
I'm sure they will be crushed
Sonia Khan, who was the former chancellor's special adviser, was allegedly confronted by Boris Johnson's chief aide Dominic Cummings."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7409193/Leak-fury-No10-Dominic-Cummings-quizzes-former-aide-Operation-Yellowhammer-document.html
That is climate change.
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49497837
Residents of town in Thurrock, which voted 72% to leave, applaud Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/29/its-fearmongering-talk-of-coup-fails-to-impress-brexit-backing-grays
While leaks have always occured the realtime leak culture under May was absurd, no way to run a government and its good someone is getting to grips with it.
Reason: Staying in the EU requires the spending of money. And only the Govt can propose the spending of money (which then subsequently gets approved by Parliament).
But Govt has to initiate it. If it doesn't, money can't be spent.
No idea if he's correct (ie there literally can't be any exceptions) or if there is any way around the above.
I'm sure there's a way round it, suspend a standing order or amend the budget so that it becomes the status quo etc. But it's another daft rule to load things in the Governments favour that really shouldn't be there,
Nothing remarkable there, no? Looks like solid performances from LDs and SNP, bit poor from Labour and Con, but pretty much what you'd expect, I think.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/29/significant-oil-discovery-yorkshire-boosts-hopes-minnow-explorers/
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1167253145195569155?s=20
And the Independent who came third:
https://www.shetnews.co.uk/2019/07/29/election-2019-ryan-thomson/
https://twitter.com/willie_rennie/status/1167253892062679040?s=20
The 'Yes' Vote in 2016 was 36.3% So if the Nat had won 'Shetland would have been taken out of the EU UK against its will" Unquote.
Yes, the Speaker decides if a Bill is a Money Bill. If it is a Money Bill, then it can't be amended in the Lords.
However the spending of money requires a Money Resolution - which is quite different. Hence the point re Boundary Review Bill - nobody was suggesting that was a Money Bill.
Looks like SNP & Indy took a big bite out of the LD majority. SNP apparently threw a lot of resources into it so they must have thought they had a chance.
Of course without Nicola's 3 visits they might have fallen further back....
Recent political events in the UK feel a little too close for comfort to some aspects of the rise of the Third Reich. Whilst I am sure there is no need to panic, I wouldn't be complacent either. There is no law to say it couldn't happen here.
Time for our MPs to stand up and be counted. Time for us all maybe.
Or not.
So Boris gets a revised EU deal - yet Parliament is going to vote against it to spite him?
Well, it's a view. A quite insane view. But a view.
Only the former get what they want in that scenario but the latter avoid that which they dont want the most, which is voting to leave the EU (A50 triggering notwithstanding).
That is more vital than avoiding no deal - we know that is true or more of them would already be saying they would vote for WA, and would have done so last time. Nothing indicates such people would back a deal in order to avoid no deal, they only wish to avoid no deal through a path leading to remain.
Likely because they believe it might make rejoining easier, which is better than a deal.
In short, it's not all about Boris. Hes just helping justify certain choices.
Would Corbyn vote for a deal, ending this situation where he's weirdly potentially a month away from being PM, despite being supported by maybe 20% of the voters, and the other 80% variously thinking he's useless or evil? I doubt it.
Would there be a *huge* Labour backbench rebellion against Corbyn to help Boris? Possibly, but probably not.
Would the DUP vote for what's most likely basically the same deal with "backstop" scribbled out and replaced with "independent-arbitration-ordered emergency buffer"? I wouldn't rule it out but I don't think so.
So Boris probably needs the whole Tory Party to back him. But he's nailed himself to the proposition that without a deal he'll go No Deal. So why on earth would the ERG compromise, when they're literally weeks away from winning?
Abstaining might still be enough to leave the arithmetic as a Tory Leavers v Tory Remainers fight on Boris' Brexit or Not. But that issue facing Labour MPs is in even sharper relief for Tory rebels. Are people like Hammond going to vote down a revised deal? Because it's Boris' revised deal? I'm saying no.
It's certainly possible that quite a few Labour leavers would jump, but unless the *Tory* leavers support him there simply aren't enough of them. And the question the Tory leavers are being asked is "would you like to compromise, or would you rather win?"
In such circumstances, you could easily envisage widespread civil unrest, the more so because there might well be tangible disruption as a result of the Brexit process itself. And you cannot easily envisage the country ever coming back together to forge a new consensus. Boris Johnson would be a hero to his elderly support base but a hate figure for future generations. Scotland and Northern Ireland would both be eyeing the exit door from the United Kingdom in very short order. What was left would inevitably rejoin the EU at some point, with many no doubt resentful but out of options."
I agree with much of this from the header. However, what is equally true is that failure to Brexit in some form is very likely to produce the same result. Both sides in the 52/48 split have to be reflected in the denouement of this awful period, Both sides.
Yes, I agree and said as much earlier. I think Alastair would too. As he has often said, there are no good outcomes from here, although some are less bad than others.
The attempt by Johnson to use constitutional chicanery to cheat the House of Commons, and by extension the voters, may well bring the house down on the Tories heads', but that still doesn't mean it's a good idea.
In Shetland, like much of rural Scotland, politics is personal, and this is why party politics is done so differently- if it is done at all.
In fact, in the face of a strong SNP campaign, the Lib Dems have performed very well indeed.
I remember from a brief stint working with the clerks of parliament that very few MPs really understood the intricacies of the process. It may be that we have in fact run out of time. I don't know either way, but it's clear that Johnson is going for broke and will test our democracy as far as he can.
(I wonder if in future days we will discover the Tories asked for parliament to be prorogjed until November)
To end on a partisan note, it must be obvious at this stage the damage Tory govt does. We have got to get them out of office.
F1: Spa weekend kicks off today. Worth noting that Albon's got a penalty (it was uncertain earlier but I think he's going to start at the back). Perversely, that might be good for him as it dramatically reduces expectations and pressure on his first race with the big team. Qualifying's a theoretical exercise and if he scores, they'll likely be ok with that.
Should be warm Saturday and hot Sunday which might compromise Mercedes.
Clarke's preferred solution to the current predicament is, I believe, a long deferment in which the Leave Team draw up a practical plan and timetable for withdrawal. I'd certainly accept that. It's what should have happened from the outset. We are certainly not going to see such a rational approach now.
On topic, did Cummings, in his Leave campaigning, ever outline the effects of 'Leave-with-No-Deal' or 'Crash Out' scenaria? All I seem to recall are 'promises' of Norway- or EFTA-like arrangements.
They were on 3%. They went up 2.7%.
270/300 = 90/100 = 90%
Did you pass your CSE in maths?
https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1166973645236948992?s=21
The rest not so much. May didn't much bring a knife to a gun fight as walk about unarmed and aimless waiting to be hit. Which she was, repeatedly. This government is fighting back with the same ferocity that the remainers have been using and they are playing to win. It has a purpose and a determination which is invigorating.
The notion that those remainers who voted down May's deal, a deal that left us in the SM and CU for the transitional period with every chance of that being the permanent state of affairs, indeed with a backstop applied to the whole of the UK which would have had that effect if nothing else was agreed, were ever going to come around to accept a democratic vote and come together looks more fanciful with every day that passes. These people are every bit as maniacal as the nutters in the ERG. To blame Boris or his government for that is absurd. We will all come to regret the rejection of that deal but Boris is right to fight for the democratic decision of this country.
More likely rejoining would just be the status quo ante minus the rebate.
And you studiously avoid the “then what?” question which is the essence of my point. How is this going to settle anything? It’s going to do the opposite.