The PM, the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary voted against it. Indeed it was the PM and Foreign Secretary who sabotaged it - without bothering to even read the final text - and made it unpalatable to the country.
Forget the actions of others - are people not capable of reading the actual text and deciding for themselves. MPs in particular ?
Then we will be out of the EU. But it will not have gone away. If we leave with no deal we will still need a deal with them. It will look remarkably like May's deal. We will pay what we agree we owe them. We will not pay extra for market access unless we get that market access. We will need to facilitate trade as quickly as possible. That means decisions will need to be taken on how much regulatory equivalence we can live with to ensure market access. Some will find these decisions difficult. Tough.
There will be a lot to do and it will probably need a new Parliament to do it. Life will go on. In Scotland we know about the bitterness caused by referendums. Those on the losing side still harbour a grievance which we hear every day. But the trains are (mostly) on time and the economy totters along damaged by both the previous referendum and the threat of another but still functioning. So let it be with Brexit.
You are massively underestimating just how much divi out of Downing Street.
The division is being caused by those who do not acceptg the result.
The government is literally shutting down Paone voted for.
In a Parliamentary democracy, of course the government can be blamed for launching such a putsch.
then Parliament should collapse the government and force fresh elections,
Parliament should certainly act. Though not, I think, in the way you suggest.
The problem is simply as described by @DavidL down thread. This Parliament is not fit for purpose. There is no majority for anythimg. They have turned down remain, leave and any option in between.If they extend, they will still bicker endlessly and decide nothing.
Too many Parliamentariians want to game the sysem - BoJo is doing it now, but remainers can hardly cry foul when the speaker was gaming it just a few months back to their benefit.
This Parliament is a dysfunctional body which has too much invested in a fight most voters have tired of. Time to clear the decks and get on with domestic matters.
If this parliament is not fit for purpose you are essentially telling the public they voted for the wrong MPs.
No Im saying sometimes the mix and the numbers dont work. Shit happens. Its not the first time this has happened nor will it be the last.
“Challenging”. Ho ho. Aye, you lot are challenged right enough.
Yet you managed to lose to this challenged lot when it really mattered in 2014.
We lost to SLab footsoldiers, Gordon Brown, the Daily Record and the BBC. In contrast, the Tories were an absolute gift to the Yes campaign.
Utter rubbish, it was Tories energy which got out over 90% of Scottish Tory voters for No, while useless SLab lost over a third of their traditional voters to Yes and then even more to the SNP. Indeed the 95% of Scottish Tory voters who voted No was even higher than the 86% of SNP voters who voted Yes.
Tonight SLab will likely fall to 4th in the Shetland by election behind the Scottish LDs, SNP and Scottish Tories, a pathetic shell of a party whose machine once dominated Scottish politics, now rejected by nationalists and unionists alike
90% of diddly squat did not win IndyRef1 for the BritNats. It was purely a Scottish Labour/BBC joint victory, based on wall-to-wall lies, which is also why both those institutions have crippled reputations. The Cons were a dreadful hindrance to the No campaign (especially Osborne).
SLab-watchers will not be waiting on tenterhooks for the Shetland result. Numpty.
"It was purely a Scottish Labour/BBC joint victory"
LOL
When the BBC is repatriated south of the border following the tartan victory, viewers north of the border will have endless reruns of Dr Finlay's Casebook and Fyfe Robertson documentaries to look forward to. Can't wait.
Ah yes the old, Scotland won't be able to watch Dr Who gambit.
The problem is simply as described by @DavidL down thread. This Parliament is not fit for purpose. There is no majority for anythimg. They have turned down remain, leave and any option in between.If they extend, they will still bicker endlessly and decide nothing.
Too many Parliamentariians want to game the sysem - BoJo is doing it now, but remainers can hardly cry foul when the speaker was gaming it just a few months back to their benefit.
This Parliament is a dysfunctional body which has too much invested in a fight most voters have tired of. Time to clear the decks and get on with domestic matters.
Parliament reflects the country on this, which is angry, partisan, divided and confused. It is unsurprising that its output is similarly confused.
I may be unfashionable in this but actually I think Parliament has been working fairly well given the challenges it has faced. The failures have been of the executive - first Theresa May in failing to broker any kind of even partial consensus on the way forward and now Boris Johnson in failing to respect democratic norms.
I think the difficulty with this argument is that parliament when presented with as decent a compromise as was possible over Brexit failed to take it for party reasons, and wilfully misunderstood what the WA set out to achieve. Yes, parliament too surely reflects the divisions and anger of the country but along with government has failed to bring order out of chaos - a large part of its job.
There are very few parliamentarians to come out of this with any credit. Letwin, Boles, Clarke, Benn, Cooper, Morgan, Stewart perhaps.
ERG - enough already said May govt - enough already said Mainstream Tories - failed to either support May or topple her, left her isolated (admittedly her own fault) Labour leavers - should have voted for the deal or given an alternative text of what they would vote through Labour leadership - utterly cynical Lib Dems & Change - failed to support anything in the indicative votes risking no deal instead of soft brexit
"There are very few parliamentarians to come out of this with any credit. Letwin, Boles, Clarke, Benn, Cooper, Morgan, Stewart perhaps."
Arseholes the lot of them. The most charitable that can be said is they are Brussel's useful idiots. They have undoubtedly been fighting hard against the UK's best economic interests in achieving the best divorce settlement. They are behaving like somebody determined to keep the dog and are prepared to give up the house, the kids, everything else....
LDs hold on but SNP vote up with the loss of the Tavish Scott personal vote for the Liberals.
Swing of 2.25% from Labour to the Tories too, Labour a humiliating 6th
SNP on 32% in Shetland last night, still below the 37% they got in Orkney and Shetland in 2015 too
How many seats would the SNP gain on last night's swing ?
Fewer than in 2015
In 2015 the SNP sent the highest ever proportion of MPs from a single party from a constituent country of the UK in a GE, higher even than Irish nationalist parties in their time. I fully expect that in 20 years time that you'll be posting from Free Wangland comparing subsamples from selected polls with 2015.
And 2015 was before even the EU referendum let alone a hard Brexit, so so much for Brexit guaranteeing Scottish independence and a majority of Scots voting SNP
Dover is the key to whether we are really no dealing or not. There would be massive infrastructure work going on and many thousands of employees being recruited if we were.
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
A hard Brexit, he said, would raise the question of how Ireland could bake bread at all.
Varadkar and Coveney have been playing fast and loose with their voters interests.
I'd like to say the chickens are now coming home to roost but according to the Irish freight association there wont be any chickens.
“Ireland’s retail shops have no space to stockpile anything,” he told the Irish Independent. “They must be fed by distribution centres every day – and the UK is the major distribution hub for Ireland.
“Stores here have no space to stockpile anything, not even two days of products. They are seriously constrained.
and all our warehouses are full for our own shops.
Varadkar has been coming under growing pressure to out line what the Irish Government is planning to do. So far he has refused to say anything substantive bar Ive done lots of planning ( as he keeps his fingers crossed ).
Sounds familiar.
Certainly. Mrs May was pretending because she thought shed get her deal through. Given the change in sentiment Id have more confidence that something has been done in the UK. Nothing Ive seen in the Irish press leaves me with that feeling re RoI.
It's used for a purpose. I usually stick one unusual word or distinctive phrase in a thread header so I can google it later and find it easily, should I need to. It works well as a filing system for me.
The PM, the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary voted against it. Indeed it was the PM and Foreign Secretary who sabotaged it - without bothering to even read the final text - and made it unpalatable to the country.
Forget the actions of others - are people not capable of reading the actual text and deciding for themselves. MPs in particular ?
I do blame parliamentarians for not reading it and deciding themselves.
However in a tribal party system if the two Brexit secretaries (and Foreign Secretary) who negotiated the deal resign and say its a traitorous piece of shit, then I am not surprised that opposition MPs were reluctant to support it.
The PM, the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary voted against it. Indeed it was the PM and Foreign Secretary who sabotaged it - without bothering to even read the final text - and made it unpalatable to the country.
Forget the actions of others - are people not capable of reading the actual text and deciding for themselves. MPs in particular ?
I do blame parliamentarians for not reading it and deciding themselves.
However in a tribal party system if the two Brexit secretaries (and Foreign Secretary) who negotiated the deal resign and say its a traitorous piece of shit, then I am not surprised that opposition MPs were reluctant to support it.
Yes, because the likes of Lisa Nandy are usually hanging on every word uttered by David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab.
Yes, I think this is the best move for remainiacs now, they need to both restrain and de-scarify Corbyn, not just as temporary PM, but for the election campaign.
It's all very well getting your GoNAfaE sorted out and having an election with a big old LibDem surge that takes 30 seats off the Tories, but if Labour is still on 20%, that's a huge majority for Boris, which is now starting to get genuinely frightening in the way that Trump would be if he wasn't such a moron. At least in the US there's a constitution with a half-decent set of checks and balances, in Britain a PM with a majority can do pretty much what they like, and No Deal produces a huge amount of chaos that could be exploited by an astute would-be-authoritarian.
So send Corbyn out to make a grave speech on the importance of our great unwritten constitution etc etc and how deeply he would feel bound by his responsibilities, put Corbyn in, give him some time to seem reasonable and statesmanlike. If you do that Boris has just ensured that you can't have an election until October at the earliest, which gives him plenty of time to meet with other world leaders and ostentatiously not try to nationalize things or give the Palestinians the bomb.
Once Remainiacs feel like Corbyn would be bad but not terrifying, then you can have your election and let the LibDems take a chunk out of Tory-held Remainia.
Agreed. What can Corbyn with 250 Labour MPs do ? In any event die hard Corbynistas are about 50.
The idea that Corbyn is the answer is fantasy
Mps should vote in a senior politician to seek A50 extension and then call the GE
No need to involve the divisive Corbyn
Still a member of the Tory party?
Yes
In which case I think you've missed a shift in sentiment. For some reason since Wednesday Corbyn is suddenly no longer as divisive as all other options.
I see no evidence of that.
I am happy for a GONU to extend A50 but not under the divisive Corbyn
As far as my membership is concerned I remain but only subject to a deal.
Ken Clarke just said he'd back a gonu lead by Corbyn
The PM, the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary voted against it. Indeed it was the PM and Foreign Secretary who sabotaged it - without bothering to even read the final text - and made it unpalatable to the country.
Forget the actions of others - are people not capable of reading the actual text and deciding for themselves. MPs in particular ?
I do blame parliamentarians for not reading it and deciding themselves.
However in a tribal party system if the two Brexit secretaries (and Foreign Secretary) who negotiated the deal resign and say its a traitorous piece of shit, then I am not surprised that opposition MPs were reluctant to support it.
Yes, because the likes of Lisa Nandy are usually hanging on every word uttered by David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab.
The newspapers and social media do report on their words. Those words influence voters (very few of who read or understand the document). The voters influence the likes of Nandy.
It is not very complicated to understand political actions have consequences beyond their own parties.
When the referendum was run, the default leave position was "we could be like Norway or Switzerland". Talk of leaving the CU were dismissed as project fear. Now the "compromise" position is everything short of just walking away from the table. On the basis of the argument "we could be Norway or Switzerland" Leave won on 52/48, not a particularly resounding victory. Yet every single aspect of negotiation, deal making and positioning by the Conservatives in charge of this withdrawal process has been to go for the Leaviest Leave to be imagined. No, the WA arranged by May was not a compromise. I voted Remain, but would have accepted Norway or Switzerland lite. But this? This is a burn down the house, vulture capitalist, lets become the 51st state Brexit. Bollocks to that.
Citizen of nowhere, traitor, saboteur. That isn't the language of reconciliation and unity. It was vitriol. And for a change like this we needed someone to try and parse what was possible, not an ideologue.
Well, the loonies are in charge of the madhouse now.
That is all true. But the dolts who voted Leave didn't realise that they were writing the loons a blank cheque because there was only the infamous leave or remain option on the ballot paper.
As I have said, ahem, often (for you once a week pop in-ers) there is a special place in hell reserved for those Leave voters who are now surprised at the current turn of events. Actually such stupidity doesn't merit punishment and it must be bad enough for them to struggle through the requirements of each day without making it worse for them.
Mr. kle4, consider if Labour had a non-far left leader.
Cooper or Benn would be looking at 20-30 point leads.
Nah, Tory voters want a No Deal Brexit now. They wouldn't switch to Benn or Cooper. Benn or Cooper would take a few from the Lib Dems, but otherwise the country would still be utterly divided.
I think supporters of both main parties significantly fail to understand how many anti the other party voters there are at the moment.
The main reason to vote Labour is Boris Johnson and his govt. The main reason to vote Tory is Jeremy Corbyn and his cabal.
Replacing the opposition leader with someone palatable makes a huge change in both turnout and intent.
That was true under May, under Boris though Tories are casting a positive vote for Boris to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal not just an anti Corbyn one
I wish I could take you around a few doors... Johnson is toxic waste here in Scotland... In fact the Tory brand is toxic waste, as Ruth Davidson's despair shows all too clearly. I think you will come third here, in a seat you currently hold, and I don't think that is going to be a unique situation either in Scotland or across the UK.
Johnson is not the anti-Corbyn, he is simply the Tory Corbyn.
Oddly the toxicity hasn't extended to the voters in Shetland where the Tory vote share crashed by a despair inducing 0.1%
The 3rd place Ind candidate is pro-independence, as are two of the other Inds, plus the Green.
Wee Wullie will be wetting his pants, the idiot was on GMS claiming it was a great victory only losing 20% of your voters, really.
The LibDems will have been mighty relieved by this result as a week ago they were fearing a 2015-type result when they were neck and neck with SNP in Shetland. Essentially they lost the 19% share which Tavish increased their tally by in 2016. I think there was kick-back from the enormous effort the SNP put in. I had thought that if the SNP could marshall all the pro-Indy votes in Shetland they might take it but that didn't happen.
More representative, I think, of things was the council by-election in East Kilbride last night. Shows SNP continuing to consolidate in Central Belt while SLAB continues its vertiginous decline. Lib Dem vote up considerably and Tories drifting down a little, although still well ahead of pre-Ruth results. Perhaps much as you'd expect given the maelstrom in Westminster.
Good summation , shows despite all the bluster on here , that the SNP are still going upwards and that after 12 years in Government. Will be a high water mark for any opposition to keep their seats for sure. Labour just dead.
How dare you suggest that Barclay has been wasting his time. He’s been working through the Certified Brexit Secretary training modules at a rate of knots and now has a basic understanding of advanced concepts like the importance of cross-channel trade.
Dover is the key to whether we are really no dealing or not. There would be massive infrastructure work going on and many thousands of employees being recruited if we were.
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
This is all true, but what you can't distinguish between here is a bluff and a bunch of chancers who have absolutely no idea what the fuck they're doing.
Yes, I think this is the best move for remainiacs now, they need to both restrain and de-scarify Corbyn, not just as temporary PM, but for the election campaign.
It's all very well getting your GoNAfaE sorted out and having an election with a big old LibDem surge that takes 30 seats off the Tories, but if Labour is still on 20%, that's a huge majority for Boris, which is now starting to get genuinely frightening in the way that Trump would be if he wasn't such a moron. At least in the US there's a constitution with a half-decent set of checks and balances, in Britain a PM with a majority can do pretty much what they like, and No Deal produces a huge amount of chaos that could be exploited by an astute would-be-authoritarian.
So send Corbyn out to make a grave speech on the importance of our great unwritten constitution etc etc and how deeply he would feel bound by his responsibilities, put Corbyn in, give him some time to seem reasonable and statesmanlike. If you do that Boris has just ensured that you can't have an election until October at the earliest, which gives him plenty of time to meet with other world leaders and ostentatiously not try to nationalize things or give the Palestinians the bomb.
Once Remainiacs feel like Corbyn would be bad but not terrifying, then you can have your election and let the LibDems take a chunk out of Tory-held Remainia.
Agreed. What can Corbyn with 250 Labour MPs do ? In any event die hard Corbynistas are about 50.
The idea that Corbyn is the answer is fantasy
Mps should vote in a senior politician to seek A50 extension and then call the GE
No need to involve the divisive Corbyn
Still a member of the Tory party?
Yes
In which case I think you've missed a shift in sentiment. For some reason since Wednesday Corbyn is suddenly no longer as divisive as all other options.
I see no evidence of that.
I am happy for a GONU to extend A50 but not under the divisive Corbyn
As far as my membership is concerned I remain but only subject to a deal.
Ken Clarke just said he'd back a gonu lead by Corbyn
Ken is good value when being interviewed, he has a good deal more humour than most MPs. Note he was the only Tory to vote for Labour's alternative Brexit plan.
Dover is the key to whether we are really no dealing or not. There would be massive infrastructure work going on and many thousands of employees being recruited if we were.
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
There is only one flaw in that argument is that we might actually end up leaving with no deal as a result of stupid commitments made and a paranoid fear of TBP. Or even worse they actually do think they have planned
A hard Brexit, he said, would raise the question of how Ireland could bake bread at all.
Varadkar and Coveney have been playing fast and loose with their voters interests.
I'd like to say the chickens are now coming home to roost but according to the Irish freight association there wont be any chickens.
“Ireland’s retail shops have no space to stockpile anything,” he told the Irish Independent. “They must be fed by distribution centres every day – and the UK is the major distribution hub for Ireland.
“Stores here have no space to stockpile anything, not even two days of products. They are seriously constrained.
and all our warehouses are full for our own shops.
Varadkar has been coming under growing pressure to out line what the Irish Government is planning to do. So far he has refused to say anything substantive bar Ive done lots of planning ( as he keeps his fingers crossed ).
Sounds familiar.
Certainly. Mrs May was pretending because she thought shed get her deal through. Given the change in sentiment Id have more confidence that something has been done in the UK. Nothing Ive seen in the Irish press leaves me with that feeling re RoI.
You have been predicting capitulation and chaos in Ireland for three years now. It has not happened yet. My guess is that the Irish will probably be more willing to suck up what is coming than us. They are certainly far less divided on their government's approach and they have been strongly reminded of the damage the Brits always do in and to Ireland. They will also get substantial help from the EU and from the US.
Just a little reminder of the NYT map of No Deal Brexit impact:
So - to answer my own question - and one which noone seems to ask any No Dealer on any interview I've ever heard - No Deal is far worse for us than for anyone else.
So how is threatening No Deal some sort of marvelous negotiating ploy for Britain?
Mr. kle4, consider if Labour had a non-far left leader.
Cooper or Benn would be looking at 20-30 point leads.
Nah, Tory voters want a No Deal Brexit now. They wouldn't switch to Benn or Cooper. Benn or Cooper would take a few from the Lib Dems, but otherwise the country would still be utterly divided.
I think supporters of both main parties significantly fail to understand how many anti the other party voters there are at the moment.
The main reason to vote Labour is Boris Johnson and his govt. The main reason to vote Tory is Jeremy Corbyn and his cabal.
Replacing the opposition leader with someone palatable makes a huge change in both turnout and intent.
That was true under May, under Boris though Tories are casting a positive vote for Boris to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal not just an anti Corbyn one
I wish I could take you around a few doors... Johnson is toxic waste here in Scotland... In fact the Tory brand is toxic waste, as Ruth Davidson's despair shows all too clearly. I think you will come third here, in a seat you currently hold, and I don't think that is going to be a unique situation either in Scotland or across the UK.
Johnson is not the anti-Corbyn, he is simply the Tory Corbyn.
Oddly the toxicity hasn't extended to the voters in Shetland where the Tory vote share crashed by a despair inducing 0.1%
Tories are 3.6% of Shetland voters, so hard to lose high percentages!
Just a little reminder of the NYT map of No Deal Brexit impact:
So - to answer my own question - and one which noone seems to ask any No Dealer on any interview I've ever heard - No Deal is far worse for us than for anyone else.
So how is threatening No Deal some sort of marvelous negotiating ploy for Britain?
I think this question has prompted much head scratching in European capitals. Eventually they have concluded that we are led by morons.
How dare you suggest that Barclay has been wasting his time. He’s been working through the Certified Brexit Secretary training modules at a rate of knots and now has a basic understanding of advanced concepts like the importance of cross-channel trade.
You can just imagine that light bulb moment: "Blimey, Dominic was right: Britain really is an island off the coast of France. We better talk to the French about this."
Dover is the key to whether we are really no dealing or not. There would be massive infrastructure work going on and many thousands of employees being recruited if we were.
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
When was the last time you were in Dover? The port is completely land (well cliff) locked and there is zero space for anything to be done there.
While it is clear no deal hasn't been prepared for it's also clear that its the default option on October 31st and it is not going to be stopped by Boris
Notable today that Ken Clarke has said he will probably support a Corbyn led caretaker government, while John Major is taking the government to court. I am liking the nineties era Tories a lot more than I did at the time.
The PM, the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary voted against it. Indeed it was the PM and Foreign Secretary who sabotaged it - without bothering to even read the final text - and made it unpalatable to the country.
Forget the actions of others - are people not capable of reading the actual text and deciding for themselves. MPs in particular ?
I do blame parliamentarians for not reading it and deciding themselves.
However in a tribal party system if the two Brexit secretaries (and Foreign Secretary) who negotiated the deal resign and say its a traitorous piece of shit, then I am not surprised that opposition MPs were reluctant to support it.
Yes, because the likes of Lisa Nandy are usually hanging on every word uttered by David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab.
The newspapers and social media do report on their words. Those words influence voters (very few of who read or understand the document). The voters influence the likes of Nandy.
It is not very complicated to understand political actions have consequences beyond their own parties.
But there is a fundamental difference between how an MP should approach this from the individual getting in touch. It isn’t about rolling the dice for you, or for me. It isn’t about whether you or I can afford for the gamble not to come off and end up somewhere worse. An MP has to make that call for every person they represent, where there are wildly different views and personal circumstances. And many people across East Renfrewshire simply can not afford for me to take a gamble with their lives that doesn’t pay off.
The 3rd place Ind candidate is pro-independence, as are two of the other Inds, plus the Green.
Wee Wullie will be wetting his pants, the idiot was on GMS claiming it was a great victory only losing 20% of your voters, really.
The LibDems will have been mighty relieved by this result as a week ago they were fearing a 2015-type result when they were neck and neck with SNP in Shetland. Essentially they lost the 19% share which Tavish increased their tally by in 2016. I think there was kick-back from the enormous effort the SNP put in. I had thought that if the SNP could marshall all the pro-Indy votes in Shetland they might take it but that didn't happen.
More representative, I think, of things was the council by-election in East Kilbride last night. Shows SNP continuing to consolidate in Central Belt while SLAB continues its vertiginous decline. Lib Dem vote up considerably and Tories drifting down a little, although still well ahead of pre-Ruth results. Perhaps much as you'd expect given the maelstrom in Westminster.
Good summation , shows despite all the bluster on here , that the SNP are still going upwards and that after 12 years in Government. Will be a high water mark for any opposition to keep their seats for sure. Labour just dead.
If only a freeport actually offered something we didn't already have in the past (they were called enterprise zones) and their big issues are actually highlighted in the article.
A hard Brexit, he said, would raise the question of how Ireland could bake bread at all.
Varadkar and Coveney have been playing fast and loose with their voters interests.
I'd like to say the chickens are now coming home to roost but according to the Irish freight association there wont be any chickens.
“Ireland’s retail shops have no space to stockpile anything,” he told the Irish Independent. “They must be fed by distribution centres every day – and the UK is the major distribution hub for Ireland.
“Stores here have no space to stockpile anything, not even two days of products. They are seriously constrained.
and all our warehouses are full for our own shops.
Varadkar has been coming under growing pressure to out line what the Irish Government is planning to do. So far he has refused to say anything substantive bar Ive done lots of planning ( as he keeps his fingers crossed ).
Sounds familiar.
Certainly. Mrs May was pretending because she thought shed get her deal through. Given the change in sentiment Id have more confidence that something has been done in the UK. Nothing Ive seen in the Irish press leaves me with that feeling re RoI.
You have been predicting capitulation and chaos in Ireland for three years now. It has not happened yet. My guess is that the Irish will probably be more willing to suck up what is coming than us. They are certainly far less divided on their government's approach and they have been strongly reminded of the damage the Brits always do in and to Ireland. They will also get substantial help from the EU and from the US.
You've been predicting the same for the UK - with a drought thrown in :-)
On the other hand Ive actually been predicting a no deal will hit the RoI harder than the UK. If we get one then we'll see.
Mr. kle4, consider if Labour had a non-far left leader.
Cooper or Benn would be looking at 20-30 point leads.
Nah, Tory voters want a No Deal Brexit now. They wouldn't switch to Benn or Cooper. Benn or Cooper would take a few from the Lib Dems, but otherwise the country would still be utterly divided.
I think supporters of both main parties significantly fail to understand how many anti the other party voters there are at the moment.
The main reason to vote Labour is Boris Johnson and his govt. The main reason to vote Tory is Jeremy Corbyn and his cabal.
Replacing the opposition leader with someone palatable makes a huge change in both turnout and intent.
That was true under May, under Boris though Tories are casting a positive vote for Boris to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal not just an anti Corbyn one
I wish I could take you around a few doors... Johnson is toxic waste here in Scotland... In fact the Tory brand is toxic waste, as Ruth Davidson's despair shows all too clearly. I think you will come third here, in a seat you currently hold, and I don't think that is going to be a unique situation either in Scotland or across the UK.
Johnson is not the anti-Corbyn, he is simply the Tory Corbyn.
Oddly the toxicity hasn't extended to the voters in Shetland where the Tory vote share crashed by a despair inducing 0.1%
You're having a laugh... The Tories got 3.6% of the poll. In East Kilbride they were down, and that was really before the impact of Ruth D's exit.
Notable today that Ken Clarke has said he will probably support a Corbyn led caretaker government, while John Major is taking the government to court. I am liking the nineties era Tories a lot more than I did at the time.
They are the last generation to see Politics as a duty rather than a career choice.
So - to answer my own question - and one which noone seems to ask any No Dealer on any interview I've ever heard - No Deal is far worse for us than for anyone else.
So how is threatening No Deal some sort of marvelous negotiating ploy for Britain?
The German car makers and Italian Prosecco producers need us much more than we need them...
I hope mps are successful in their campaign to stop no deal, not least because it would have a big boost to the currency just as I buy my US and Canadian dollars on the 9th September for our cruise a few days later, but also it is the right thing to do and I can retain my party membership
Dover is the key to whether we are really no dealing or not. There would be massive infrastructure work going on and many thousands of employees being recruited if we were.
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
This is all true, but what you can't distinguish between here is a bluff and a bunch of chancers who have absolutely no idea what the fuck they're doing.
A week ago I could not distinguish. Today I am happy that its a bluff. They are playing the deliberately playing the pantomine villain to energise their base and force a VONC.
Prorogation was controversial as it was stopping parliament deciding on Brexit. They could have tried that, they didnt. Instead its the watered down version that still grates enough to get the VONC, but doesnt deliver no deal.
The only plausible reason for it is the govt do not want no deal.
There are still accidental routes that would create no deal but for the first time under Boris I am satisfied the govt do not want it.
“Challenging”. Ho ho. Aye, you lot are challenged right enough.
Yet you managed to lose to this challenged lot when it really mattered in 2014.
We lost to SLab footsoldiers, Gordon Brown, the Daily Record and the BBC. In contrast, the Tories were an absolute gift to the Yes campaign.
Utter rubbish, it was Tories energy which got out over 90% of Scottish Tory voters for No, while useless SLab lost over a third of their traditional voters to Yes and then even more to the SNP. Indeed the 95% of Scottish Tory voters who voted No was even higher than the 86% of SNP voters who voted Yes.
Tonight SLab will likely fall to 4th in the Shetland by election behind the Scottish LDs, SNP and Scottish Tories, a pathetic shell of a party whose machine once dominated Scottish politics, now rejected by nationalists and unionists alike
90% of diddly squat did not win IndyRef1 for the BritNats. It was purely a Scottish Labour/BBC joint victory, based on wall-to-wall lies, which is also why both those institutions have crippled reputations. The Cons were a dreadful hindrance to the No campaign (especially Osborne).
SLab-watchers will not be waiting on tenterhooks for the Shetland result. Numpty.
"It was purely a Scottish Labour/BBC joint victory"
LOL
When the BBC is repatriated south of the border following the tartan victory, viewers north of the border will have endless reruns of Dr Finlay's Casebook and Fyfe Robertson documentaries to look forward to. Can't wait.
Ah yes the old, Scotland won't be able to watch Dr Who gambit.
Classic. Economically illiterate but classic.
There is an argument which has also been made on pb that BBC Scotland's output is not Scottish enough. You mention Dr Who, which is made in Wales but has no distinctly Welsh content. For some nationalists, it is a matter of more Taggart and Rebus, not access to Inspector Morse. The reality, as you imply, is not much will change.
Dover is the key to whether we are really no dealing or not. There would be massive infrastructure work going on and many thousands of employees being recruited if we were.
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
When was the last time you were in Dover? The port is completely land (well cliff) locked and there is zero space for anything to be done there.
While it is clear no deal hasn't been prepared for it's also clear that its the default option on October 31st and it is not going to be stopped by Boris
Could we not build an M2a and M20a? More than 3 roads leading out of the town?
I'm pretty sure this not the first time, and it will not be the last, someone on here has cried some version of "BreXiT iS DeaD !1!" And yet we march on...
Just a little reminder of the NYT map of No Deal Brexit impact:
So - to answer my own question - and one which noone seems to ask any No Dealer on any interview I've ever heard - No Deal is far worse for us than for anyone else.
So how is threatening No Deal some sort of marvelous negotiating ploy for Britain?
It is, like everything else from Brexiters, a fail. Threatening No Deal will on the one hand frighten the EU so much that they will come begging to the negotiating table backstop in hand, while on the other hand every government minister asked tells us that No Deal will be no problem for the UK and we'll sail on untroubled after October 31st.
No one will say, not even in the rarefied cloisters of PB, not even such luminaries of leave as @MarqueeMark, @Luckyguy1983, or any other of the Leave inclined intellectual titans, which of these is actually the case.
If only a freeport actually offered something we didn't already have in the past (they were called enterprise zones) and their big issues are actually highlighted in the article.
hey take it up with The Irish Times, Im simply the messenger.
Much better to target North Norfolk. Eastbourne also interesting with Lloyd withdrawing from the LD whip
Oh dear, it's still amateur hour on here, I see.
Stephen Lloyd remains a member of the LDs and will, I'm sure, fight the Eastbourne seat at the next GE. On all non-Brexit matters, he is fully supportive of the Party, He made a pledge to his constituents to support the WA and since the LDs are opposed he had no option but to leave the group at Westminster and sit as an independent taking no whip.
I presume the commitment does not extend to a No Deal Brexit so he will be with the rest of the LD Party in opposing that, IF, however, the WA is presented again to the Commons, I would expect him to support it.
Just a little reminder of the NYT map of No Deal Brexit impact:
So - to answer my own question - and one which noone seems to ask any No Dealer on any interview I've ever heard - No Deal is far worse for us than for anyone else.
So how is threatening No Deal some sort of marvelous negotiating ploy for Britain?
The other noteworthy thing is that most of Europe is unaffected. Post No Deal trade negotiators need their unanimous approval.
Apart from Ireland, which is less affected then most of England, no part of the Continental EU is as badly affected as the least affected part of the UK.
Dover is the key to whether we are really no dealing or not. There would be massive infrastructure work going on and many thousands of employees being recruited if we were.
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
This is all true, but what you can't distinguish between here is a bluff and a bunch of chancers who have absolutely no idea what the fuck they're doing.
A week ago I could not distinguish. Today I am happy that its a bluff. They are playing the deliberately playing the pantomine villain to energise their base and force a VONC.
Prorogation was controversial as it was stopping parliament deciding on Brexit. They could have tried that, they didnt. Instead its the watered down version that still grates enough to get the VONC, but doesnt deliver no deal.
The only plausible reason for it is the govt do not want no deal.
There are still accidental routes that would create no deal but for the first time under Boris I am satisfied the govt do not want it.
Farage has twigged this as well which is why he has demanded that every Tory candidate must run on a no deal ticket otherwise he will contest every seat. Johnson will then be caught between having to fall into line or risk running on deal or no deal it was the bastard MPs that stopped me manifesto. I’m not sure how that would play out but he clearly wants to be stopped from leaving no deal.
I hope mps are successful in their campaign to stop no deal, not least because it would have a big boost to the currency just as I buy my US and Canadian dollars on the 9th September for our cruise a few days later, but also it is the right thing to do and I can retain my party membership
Interesting idea but presumably still bumps up against the DUP.
if it gives NI some trading advantages all parties will probably say yes.
Its actually astounding that the local MLAs havent the brains to turn the current impasse to their advantage.But theyd rather sit in the trenhes and shoot at eachother.
On topic, great memories. I used to love the Lone Wolf adventure books when I was younger.
I had a pencil where I kept a score of my "Kai" as I progressed through each one. It was never high enough and I regularly got defeated in hard battles, and had to start again!
Mr. Nichomar, had we taken no deal more seriously from the start (both in terms of contingency planning and negotiating) we'd be in a better situation.
It's fitting for the whole comedy of errors that it was abandoned early on in negotiating, planning wasn't done for fear of scaring the horses (similar to the approach taken by Clinton in battlefield states and the British commanders of Singapore in WWII), and is now being resurrected with a few weeks to go and very little time to mitigate any impact.
Maybe a deal will still happen. But right now the political class has shown the collective wisdom and judgement the Romans displayed when handling the Cimbri.
I hope mps are successful in their campaign to stop no deal, not least because it would have a big boost to the currency just as I buy my US and Canadian dollars on the 9th September for our cruise a few days later, but also it is the right thing to do and I can retain my party membership
I hope mps are successful in their campaign to stop no deal, not least because it would have a big boost to the currency just as I buy my US and Canadian dollars on the 9th September for our cruise a few days later, but also it is the right thing to do and I can retain my party membership
Interesting idea but presumably still bumps up against the DUP.
if it gives NI some trading advantages all parties will probably say yes.
Its actually astounding that the local MLAs havent the brains to turn the current impasse to their advantage.But theyd rather sit in the trenhes and shoot at eachother.
I don’t think you read it properly. He’s just talking about relabelling the original NI-only backstop with a sexy name.
Mr. kle4, consider if Labour had a non-far left leader.
Cooper or Benn would be looking at 20-30 point leads.
That is the tragedy of the situation. History is going to show that Coirbyn enabled everything that is now happening. Johnson would be terrified of an election if Labour had the right leader
Quite right. The Tories only imposed Johnson upon us for laughs, safe in the knowledge that Corbyn is a political leper. Let's destroy both parties. We will not be made mock of!
If only a freeport actually offered something we didn't already have in the past (they were called enterprise zones) and their big issues are actually highlighted in the article.
hey take it up with The Irish Times, Im simply the messenger.
There is no need - it's a better article than the Tees Valley FreePort report itself which has obvious flaws that the mayor won't acknowledge - the main one being we could do this now and it really wouldn't be any different.
The mayor was happy talking to me until I pointed out I was an economist by training and my wife is a town planner and her Master's thesis was on the impact of enterprise zones on the surrounding areas. So when I stated that enterprise zones merely moved local industry into the zone from the surrounding towns it was with empirical evidence rather than anecdotes.
Interesting idea but presumably still bumps up against the DUP.
if it gives NI some trading advantages all parties will probably say yes.
Its actually astounding that the local MLAs havent the brains to turn the current impasse to their advantage.But theyd rather sit in the trenhes and shoot at eachother.
I don’t think you read it properly. He’s just talking about relabelling the original NI-only backstop with a sexy name.
how else do you think all sides are going to climb down ?
I hope mps are successful in their campaign to stop no deal, not least because it would have a big boost to the currency just as I buy my US and Canadian dollars on the 9th September for our cruise a few days later, but also it is the right thing to do and I can retain my party membership
LOL
I did say it with tongue in cheek !!!!
Big G I hope you and Mrs Big G have a fantastic time away. Don't spend too much time on PB!
LOL! None of these legal actions are going anywhere.
If it wasn't legally watertight for Boris to Progogue Parliament for a Queens Speech HMQ wouldn't have agreed to it (and the PM wouldn't have dared ask her)
Is it? Surely Boris can then go for a GE with the look, the EU won't let us leave. It reinforces the negative stereotype of the EU.
Far better to let the UK parliament block no deal and let Boris or those blocking no-deal appear the bad guys (depending on which side of the argument you are on).
Comments
Classic. Economically illiterate but classic.
get over yourself
Arseholes the lot of them. The most charitable that can be said is they are Brussel's useful idiots. They have undoubtedly been fighting hard against the UK's best economic interests in achieving the best divorce settlement. They are behaving like somebody determined to keep the dog and are prepared to give up the house, the kids, everything else....
'Please do not waste this time'
At Portmsouth, the govt offered them 150k to help with no deal prep last week.
It is simply not serious about no deal, despite all the words and slogans. Someone more eloquent might describe it as an inverted pyramid of piffle.
Didn't this numpty vote against Mays Deal?
However in a tribal party system if the two Brexit secretaries (and Foreign Secretary) who negotiated the deal resign and say its a traitorous piece of shit, then I am not surprised that opposition MPs were reluctant to support it.
It is not very complicated to understand political actions have consequences beyond their own parties.
As I have said, ahem, often (for you once a week pop in-ers) there is a special place in hell reserved for those Leave voters who are now surprised at the current turn of events. Actually such stupidity doesn't merit punishment and it must be bad enough for them to struggle through the requirements of each day without making it worse for them.
Well he was right about Boris.
Carmichael looks safe to me.
Labour just dead.
https://twitter.com/twlldun/status/1167357726374187009?s=20
So how is threatening No Deal some sort of marvelous negotiating ploy for Britain?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/29/parliament-brexit-prorogue-mps-alternative-no-deal
Backstop problem has already been solved.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-uk-already-has-a-plan-that-would-break-the-brexit-backstop-deadlock-1.4001590
While it is clear no deal hasn't been prepared for it's also clear that its the default option on October 31st and it is not going to be stopped by Boris
Or possibly, being in posession of the facts has opened Barclays eyes...
On the other hand Ive actually been predicting a no deal will hit the RoI harder than the UK. If we get one then we'll see.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1167337432607612928
Prorogation was controversial as it was stopping parliament deciding on Brexit. They could have tried that, they didnt. Instead its the watered down version that still grates enough to get the VONC, but doesnt deliver no deal.
The only plausible reason for it is the govt do not want no deal.
There are still accidental routes that would create no deal but for the first time under Boris I am satisfied the govt do not want it.
No one will say, not even in the rarefied cloisters of PB, not even such luminaries of leave as @MarqueeMark, @Luckyguy1983, or any other of the Leave inclined intellectual titans, which of these is actually the case.
Stephen Lloyd remains a member of the LDs and will, I'm sure, fight the Eastbourne seat at the next GE. On all non-Brexit matters, he is fully supportive of the Party, He made a pledge to his constituents to support the WA and since the LDs are opposed he had no option but to leave the group at Westminster and sit as an independent taking no whip.
I presume the commitment does not extend to a No Deal Brexit so he will be with the rest of the LD Party in opposing that, IF, however, the WA is presented again to the Commons, I would expect him to support it.
He's got some heavyweight advice as well.
Apart from Ireland, which is less affected then most of England, no part of the Continental EU is as badly affected as the least affected part of the UK.
The full article from the NYT is here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/07/world/europe/brexit-impact-on-european-union.html
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1166672632827105280
Its actually astounding that the local MLAs havent the brains to turn the current impasse to their advantage.But theyd rather sit in the trenhes and shoot at eachother.
I had a pencil where I kept a score of my "Kai" as I progressed through each one. It was never high enough and I regularly got defeated in hard battles, and had to start again!
It's fitting for the whole comedy of errors that it was abandoned early on in negotiating, planning wasn't done for fear of scaring the horses (similar to the approach taken by Clinton in battlefield states and the British commanders of Singapore in WWII), and is now being resurrected with a few weeks to go and very little time to mitigate any impact.
Maybe a deal will still happen. But right now the political class has shown the collective wisdom and judgement the Romans displayed when handling the Cimbri.
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1167364663522332672
The mayor was happy talking to me until I pointed out I was an economist by training and my wife is a town planner and her Master's thesis was on the impact of enterprise zones on the surrounding areas. So when I stated that enterprise zones merely moved local industry into the zone from the surrounding towns it was with empirical evidence rather than anecdotes.
But hardly surprising
https://twitter.com/bbcandrewkerr/status/1167364386387890176?s=21
If it wasn't legally watertight for Boris to Progogue Parliament for a Queens Speech HMQ wouldn't have agreed to it (and the PM wouldn't have dared ask her)
Far better to let the UK parliament block no deal and let Boris or those blocking no-deal appear the bad guys (depending on which side of the argument you are on).
Canny judging.