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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Red Letter Day. Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of being next Prime Mi

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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    He won't, as he knows if he or any other Tory leader has not delivered Brexit by the next general election and extended past October 31st that will be the end of the Tory Party as the main party of the right in the UK with the Brexit Party replacing it

    You are - oddly - underestimating the Great Man.

    He knows that his path to a long and successful premiership goes via passing a Brexit deal and winning a general election off the back of that.

    This will require an extension into 2020 and such is his plan.

    I think he'll pull it off.
    Come on you just want to talk you're bets up😀
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    edited August 2019
    OllyT said:

    Actually a few days before polling day I reported attending an event at CCHQ with Jim Messina where he reported a higher number of undecideds than any election he had ever been in.

    I also never supported the disastrous dementia tax which went down like a lead balloon on the doorsteps as soon as it was announced

    What have Messin'a views on the number of undecided or your views on the dementia tax got to do with it? I was talking about your predictions of the outcome when May called the election. Care to remind us?

    I don't think I made any specific predictions other than reporting what the polls showed and what I found on the doorsteps over the campaign and of course unlike 2017 there will be no dementia tax under Boris while the LDs are currently polling around 20%, mainly at Labour's expense, which they were nowhere near in 2017 polls
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    They really are going out of their way to prove how thick they are
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    The fact Boris has had to go crawling to Berlin and Paris is pretty humiliating.

    Quite funny how the no deal cult are celebrating the humiliation.

    I wonder what mark Boris will get in his homework for Ms Merkel and Mr Macron.

    I’m guessing an E.

    He had to go crawling? There may have been negotiation, but what has he conceded?
    Boris himself said he wouldn’t meet any EU leaders until they had agreed to remove the backstop.

    He’s just making himself look even more of a fool than he already is.
    And they have agreed to remove the backstop, if a replacement is found. Mission accomplished. This is progress
    If we had a solution why would we need to remove the backstop which only kicks in if there isn’t a solution after the transition period?
    Because the only way to get a solution is for both sides to compromise and agreeing the backstop removes the EU's incentive to compromise.

    A solution is possible if the backstop isn't. Agree the backstop and the solution is no longer available.
    That’s ridiculous and suggests that you actually believe the back stop is a conspiracy of the EU to lock us into the customs union. If there is a technical solution which after two yoga’s of transition is proved to work then the back stop doesn't kick in. If it doesn’t work then we need the back stop, they would be mad to remove the backstop as it’s successful removal could be agreed in the next stage.
    Yes I do believe the backstop is a conspiracy of the EU to lock us into terms of their choosing.

    You seem to madly be believing a technical solution is something that actually exists like a solution to a formula. A solution is something we need both parties to CREATE via compromising and only by both parties compromising will it be possible.
    There is binding arbitration baked into the Withdrawal Agreement. If the EU is not sincere in either negotiating an FTA or in finding a technical solution, then they will find themselves being ruled against.

    Now, @Sandpit makes the excellent point that they could probably bugger around for a couple of years before the wheels of international arbitration finally turn. But there is no way they could keep us indefinitely, unless you believe that the various international courts of arbitration are all EU puppets.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,799

    I have had a roller coaster day with my granddaughter achieving 5 x A* and 7 straight A's and being best in her school, while a close member of the family is suffering mental health issues.

    I pop in to see how things are going and the same almost childish banter stands out with those of us in the middle seeking compromise saying 'A plague on both of your houses'

    I still hope that Boris surprises on the upside or that the HOC can agree a way to prevent no deal, but without Corbyn leading any form of government without winning a GE

    I KNEW people on this forum said Johnson might surprise on the upside. This was disputed the other day.

    Much more important, congrats to your granddaughter on her success and best wishes to your family as it deals with mental health issues.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912

    This is a PM seeking a deal, a different deal but a deal nonetheless. Howabout supporting that ambition?

    then


    Its not a conspiracy theory, its logic. It is what their own side have said in their own words.

    Absolutely if Johnson agrees it I will oppose it.

    I thought you were in the "we need a brexit on 31st October, any kind of brexit" camp.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    edited August 2019
    ZAP!!!!!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950
    Archer 6/45, 179 for the convicts. Great opportunity for England from here.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940

    Off-topic:

    Our wild and meandering drive around the country has brought us to Durham, a place neither of us have been before. It seems quite a beautiful place, and we're about to go down to have a meal to celebrate ten happy years of marriage.

    So, in a good mood and spirit, I hope everyone has a great bank holiday weekend! Enjoy yourselves, wherever you find yourselves in this beautiful country and world of ours.

    Durham cathedral is one of the finest buildings in the country. It would comfortably be in my top ten.
    We totally agree. In fact, this afternoon we climbed up the tower. Definitely one of the better cathedrals.

    One of the great things about our random holidays is we get to see places we've never been before, and ordinarily wouldn't get to go to.
    You could become a twitcher - that would take you to (literally) every corner of Britain.

    Durham is indeed a wonderful place. Spent three years there.
    So did I. It was often said that the largest industry after the University and the County council was an organ maker. Obviously there was no coal mining in Durham city.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    Only one by-election today - a Lib Dem defence in Rugby.
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    Not to worry all, Corbyn will be PM soon
This discussion has been closed.