This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
We haven’t left yet, dummy.
As has been explained many, many times the four quarter recession was forecast to immediately follow a Leave VOTE.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
It didn't happen because the Bank of England acted to stave off the worst of the forecast events.
lol
and of course they couldnt have said upfront we will take corrective action
they simply undermine their credibility
Economic forecasting takes the current situation and then assesses likely outcomes were an event. It does not and did not then include contingent events.
Actually credible forcasting does and should include contingent events . . . especially contingent events in the forecasters control!
The BoE forecast a base rate increase immediately following a vote to leave. They didn't forecast an immediate cut or lack of action.
I think that's where you show the limitations of your economic training. NIESR, which compiled those forecasts, is full of people dare I say better qualified than you to make those decisions.
Better qualified to determine that there would be a BoE base rate increase, when actually there was a BoE base rate decrease?
You are sounding like a punter, not an economist.
No I'm calling out flaws. There is a key issue anyone who has ever done a model must be aware of: GIGO - Garbage In, Garbage Out.
The modelling for the post-Brexit Referendum was garbage by not just not realising what the BoE would do but for actually modelling the exact OPPOSITE of what it did.
Had the model assumed ceteris paribus that would be ignorant enough for what is supposed to be a serious projection. It didn't, the BoE forecast it would raise rates and then when it occured it cut them instead.
That betrays politics not credible economic modelling. "Vote Brexit and we'll need to raise interest rates and there'll be a recession immediately" is much more threatening politically than "vote Brexit and we'll cut interest rates but not much else will change immediately".
If you want a serious economic model you need to seriously predict what relevant actors will do and you don't get much more relevant than the BoE.
Just a couple of observations so far - first, Boris Johnson is so fortunate in having Jeremy Corbyn as LOTO. If Johnson wants to have an election, Corbyn will oblige. Once again I'm puzzled by Labour's positioning on this - let's say Corbyn gets his election and wins. What then? I can only presume he doesn't care - the socialist re-making of Britain will occur whether we are in the EU or not and indeed leaving without a WA makes it easier.
Those who argue for sovereignty or the taking back of control will doubtless applaud Corbyn's ability to re-make Britain and it will be as though the last 40 years had never happened. I've always thought Corbyn thinks he can win if he could speak to every elector individually but the polls suggest whatever magic he once had has gone.
Second, picking up from the weekend banter. There is no majority in Parliament for a No Deal exit but that doesn't equate to a majority to Remain. The "BIg G-ers" (so to speak) are those who still want the WA to pass and that does meet the key criteria of getting us out of the EU and respecting the 23/6/16 result. The problem is a lot of people don't like the WA for various reasons (that probably means it's a good Deal but that doesn't matter).
The problem is those wanting to remain (revoke) and those wanting to leave with a WA are only united in wanting to stop us leaving without a WA. Neither position can command a majority in the Commons (which is why No Deal Brexit is going to happen) and neither side seems willing to give ground. The polarisation of views means those wanting us to Remain are happy to ignore the 23/6/16 referendum while those wanting us to leave without a WA are uncaring as to the economic damage, dislocation and cost of mitigation (which has paralysed Government and meant other work hasn't been done).
Indeed though I don't really want our current politicians meddling in any other work.
The nearest thing on balance that there is to a majority is the group in favour of exit with a deal. The only reason TMs WA didn't go through is that Labour pretended there was something unacceptable about it, and did so for political reasons. Labour were foolish not to allow judicious abstention to get it through while avoiding direct blame for any consequences.
It seems to me that a WA deal is still the most likely outcome, as the EU cannot avoid blame if it sets up a border in Ireland following a do deal exit, so I expect some cosmetic movement in September/October, when the commons will have a clear choice between deal and crash out. Deal will win.
On topic I think this is a fair bet by Mike. There are a number of reasons why Trump might not be the candidate, from impeachment hearings to health to, as he says, the possibility of him throwing the towel in of his own accord.
I've taken the view for a long time that Trump essentially hates himself, which he compensates for by hating everybody else, treating them as he expects others to treat him and attempting to compensate for his 'failure' by gaining notional successes, whether in money, power or trophies - though as these don't really compensate because they once again run up against his self-worth, they feel fraudulent (though as they are, on their own grounds, successful they also provide another psychological justification - beyond despising other people - *for* genuine fraud).
However, Mueller has given Trump a big legal problem; one which winning again, combined with statutes of limitations and presidential immunity go a long way to brush away. Chances are, Trump's old age will be dogged by legal fights resulting from his actions as president (or, indeed, in business by prosecutors who have plenty of reasons entirely apart from the law for trying to make their names in such cases). Still, four years near-immunity is a good start, isn't it?
But does that make it a 90%+ shot he will run again and win the nomination again (it will be contested, if only notionally)? I'm not sure. Add in the other reasons why Trump might not stand - or, if he does stand, might not win - and I think the lay is the value.
This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
We haven’t left yet, dummy.
As has been explained many, many times the four quarter recession was forecast to immediately follow a Leave VOTE.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Which should have been within the assumptions of the Treasury forecast - if it wasn't the Treasury was either incompetent or biased.
And if a 0.25% decrease in interest rates was enough to stop a four quarter recession why haven't two 0.25% increases in interest rates had the opposite effect ?
Perhaps you could also tell us when a previous 0.25% decrease in interest rates has had the same supposed effect on the economy.
the RAF could fly in in a day, me who worked out how much medication would be required per day, then it was me who pointed out that yes, we did have enough capacity to do that. So your remark about "logic and reason just bounce off" was unwarranted and undeserved.
I don't think I was aware you had done that; I did the calcs myself in the midst of the kerfuffle last year.
My remarks were more aimed at Twitter propagandists, and the wider media. So apologies for any offence caused to yourself.
For example, this sort of Hariesque coverage in the Independent:
(Side note: 2019 - 3.9 million diabetics in UK, 320k or so with Type I insulin dependent, perhaps another 200k with Type II.)
"Millions of diabetes patients, including Theresa May herself, could be “seriously disadvantaged” if supplies of insulin are affected by a no-deal Brexit, the chair of the UK medicines regulator has said.
That is Indy 'writer' Lizzy Buchanan. The quote in para 1 is fabricated - not what he said, and seems to be based on a lie by Chris Leslie MP published on the People's Vote website (*). That also gave us this kind of trolling of diabetics (by the Head of Channel4 News) - a supply issue is remanufactured into 'type-1 diabetics dying'. Contemptible.
What question will be put to voters has been contentious since the Referendums (Scotland) Bill was published in May. The bill said that, if the proposed question had already been assessed by the commission, it should not have to be assessed again.
This would exclude the commission’s involvement in the same question as 2014 – “Should Scotland be an Independent Country?”
The commission has since ruled out a Yes/No question in the Brexit referendum, instead recommending a Remain/Leave question. This was found to be more balanced after fresh evidence was taken.
A change from Yes/No to a Leave/Remain question could damage the pro-independence movement, with the Yes campaign widely seen as having been successful in conveying a positive message in 2014.
Unionists bricking it and will go to any lengths to stop democracy.
Nats terrified they won’t be able to rig it again.....
The format of the Brexit question seems perfectly reasonable....
Yes that went well did it not.
Well, if you want to Leave the United Kingdom, then yes, it went well.
Er... in what way did it go well? We haven't left yet and still might not.
What we have had is 3 years of nothing but Brexit dominating the political discourse. No action to speak of on major issues like social care, the state of public services, the environment, crime, drugs... all because Brexit dominates everything.
And it will be as naught compared to the SINDY negotiations.
But Malc wants to win a referendum on Leaving the UK. The rest is details.
Negotiation difficulties should not I think be the main reason people should or should not do something they would like to do, but it is rather strange how the difficulties are therefore ignored as irrelevant, when as the last 3 years have proven the very fact of that difficulty in reality can lead people to change their mind on the original question, which can be very very relevant in a matter which is already closely decided.
I don't think they're being ignored, but what's the value of hypothesising over possible indy scenarios when after over 3 years of being in a 100% real negotiation we're no closer to any certainty?
On topic I think this is a fair bet by Mike. There are a number of reasons why Trump might not be the candidate, from impeachment hearings to health to, as he says, the possibility of him throwing the towel in of his own accord.
I've taken the view for a long time that Trump essentially hates himself, which he compensates for by hating everybody else, treating them as he expects others to treat him and attempting to compensate for his 'failure' by gaining notional successes, whether in money, power or trophies - though as these don't really compensate because they once again run up against his self-worth, they feel fraudulent (though as they are, on their own grounds, successful they also provide another psychological justification - beyond despising other people - *for* genuine fraud).
However, Mueller has given Trump a big legal problem; one which winning again, combined with statutes of limitations and presidential immunity go a long way to brush away. Chances are, Trump's old age will be dogged by legal fights resulting from his actions as president (or, indeed, in business by prosecutors who have plenty of reasons entirely apart from the law for trying to make their names in such cases). Still, four years near-immunity is a good start, isn't it?
But does that make it a 90%+ shot he will run again and win the nomination again (it will be contested, if only notionally)? I'm not sure. Add in the other reasons why Trump might not stand - or, if he does stand, might not win - and I think the lay is the value.
That's an interesting view on Trump's personality.
If you want a serious economic model you need to seriously predict what relevant actors will do and you don't get much more relevant than the BoE.
That is not how they work. The treasury forecasts as I said were compiled by NIESR. They looked at the consequences of the vote and what they estimated those would be. They did not make their way down a decision or binomial tree because as you are aware that way madness lies (they are not pricing an option where the future values are known) plus any result would be unintelligible.
You are an economist which gives you an insight into how these things work. If you possess anything more than an undergraduate degree then you should know all this.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Well I shall sleep easier in my bed knowing that your self appointed Anti-Fascist defenders have prevented the Blitz each and every night.
This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
We haven’t left yet, dummy.
As has been explained many, many times the four quarter recession was forecast to immediately follow a Leave VOTE.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Which should have been within the assumptions of the Treasury forecast - if it wasn't the Treasury was either incompetent or biased.
And if a 0.25% decrease in interest rates was enough to stop a four quarter recession why haven't two 0.25% increases in interest rates had the opposite effect ?
Perhaps you could also tell us when a previous 0.25% decrease in interest rates has had the same supposed effect on the economy.
Oh god you can't be this dense. As an example Google the Fed and Black Monday.
This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
We haven’t left yet, dummy.
As has been explained many, many times the four quarter recession was forecast to immediately follow a Leave VOTE.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Which should have been within the assumptions of the Treasury forecast - if it wasn't the Treasury was either incompetent or biased.
And if a 0.25% decrease in interest rates was enough to stop a four quarter recession why haven't two 0.25% increases in interest rates had the opposite effect ?
Perhaps you could also tell us when a previous 0.25% decrease in interest rates has had the same supposed effect on the economy.
Just imagine how bad the 2008-09 recession would have been without the BoE slashing interest rates by 4 pp.
This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
It didn't happen because the Bank of England acted to stave off the worst of the forecast events.
lol
and of course they couldnt have said upfront we will take corrective action
they simply undermine their credibility
Economic forecasting takes the current situation and then assesses likely outcomes were an event. It does not and did not then include contingent events.
Oh hogshit Mr T
economic forecasting is an activity where most people get it wrong and those who get it right rarely repeat the trick. We struggle to forecast accurately 12 months ahead anything beyond that is simply hope or fiction.
And as you point out there are so many variables there is not much point taking them seriously. It's a guess its not a fact.
Don’t you claim to run some kind of business?
It’s an “interesting” management concept to claim that there is no point forecasting more than 12 months out. I thought your troll schtick was to rail against short termism.
I used to work for a company which produced 10Y forecasts. They were updated every year with the effect that they were 1 year forecasts pretending to be more than that. Nobody looked at the accuracy of an unamended 10Y forecast 10 years after it was made.
There were good business reasons for doing it given relevant lifecycles but it was so bastardised as to be rendered worthless (and the assumptions needed to make an even vaguely credible 10Y forecast are heroic).
The Eton one is a bit mean. Changing the subject, was it ever established who at the Palace persuaded CCHQ to give David Cameron a job straight out of Oxford?
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Well I shall sleep easier in my bed knowing that your self appointed Anti-Fascist defenders have prevented the Blitz each and every night.
On topic, it depends whether Trump can, under a banner reading "Mission accomplished" on the USS Nimitz, claim he has "made America great again" after just four years. I think even he might have to acknowledge, that task will take four more years.
But don't underestimate the weight of that message. "We are a good way along the road to Making America Great Again. Don't let some inexperienced liberal set the clock back. As they would. We know this is true..."
This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
We haven’t left yet, dummy.
As has been explained many, many times the four quarter recession was forecast to immediately follow a Leave VOTE.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Which should have been within the assumptions of the Treasury forecast - if it wasn't the Treasury was either incompetent or biased.
And if a 0.25% decrease in interest rates was enough to stop a four quarter recession why haven't two 0.25% increases in interest rates had the opposite effect ?
Perhaps you could also tell us when a previous 0.25% decrease in interest rates has had the same supposed effect on the economy.
Oh god you can't be this dense. As an example Google the Fed and Black Monday.
So you can't respond to my points.
Its noticeable that the more intelligent Remainers - Foxy, Southam, Viewcode, AM for example - don't make themselves look silly arguing along your lines.
On topic, it depends whether Trump can, under a banner reading "Mission accomplished" on the USS Nimitz, claim he has "made America great again" after just four years. I think even he might have to acknowledge, that task will take four more years.
But don't underestimate the weight of that message. "We are a good way along the road to Making America Great Again. Don't let some inexperienced liberal set the clock back. As they would. We know this is true..."
That's why the Democrats should go with Biden. Noone is going to mistake him for a liberal.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Well I shall sleep easier in my bed knowing that your self appointed Anti-Fascist defenders have prevented the Blitz each and every night.
I do think Trump is toast. I have to be careful that this is not the wish fathering the thought - since his re-election is something I would find sad and depressing beyond measure - but I have conducted a rigorous internal audit and am satisfied that such is not the case. Four years of this will be enough for America. They will not have the stomach for another four. Whoever the Dems pick out of the leading contenders is the next POTUS, it is just a question of the margin. I think it will be comfortable, recession or no recession, and will be a landslide if there is one. And I hope the header is wrong about the possibility of Trump dodging the bullet by pulling out. That would be sub-optimal. The defeat is necessary to lance the boil and drain the pus.
I think you and the header underestimate Trump’s will to win and the legal apparatus he has assembled at federal circuit and SCOTUS level to enable it. Put simply, if he can stop Democrat-leaning demographics from voting in key states, he will win. And many of those states are GOP controlled.
I know the situation in Florida is outrageous, but if your claim turns out to be true across the nation then democracy in the USA is dead.
On topic I think this is a fair bet by Mike. There are a number of reasons why Trump might not be the candidate, from impeachment hearings to health to, as he says, the possibility of him throwing the towel in of his own accord.
I've taken the view for a long time that Trump essentially hates himself, which he compensates for by hating everybody else, treating them as he expects others to treat him and attempting to compensate for his 'failure' by gaining notional successes, whether in money, power or trophies - though as these don't really compensate because they once again run up against his self-worth, they feel fraudulent (though as they are, on their own grounds, successful they also provide another psychological justification - beyond despising other people - *for* genuine fraud).
However, Mueller has given Trump a big legal problem; one which winning again, combined with statutes of limitations and presidential immunity go a long way to brush away. Chances are, Trump's old age will be dogged by legal fights resulting from his actions as president (or, indeed, in business by prosecutors who have plenty of reasons entirely apart from the law for trying to make their names in such cases). Still, four years near-immunity is a good start, isn't it?
But does that make it a 90%+ shot he will run again and win the nomination again (it will be contested, if only notionally)? I'm not sure. Add in the other reasons why Trump might not stand - or, if he does stand, might not win - and I think the lay is the value.
Self-hatred would require a level of introspection from Trump that he gives no impression of having. I do think, though, that he is a man who has never experienced unconditional love at any point in his life. This has profoundly damaged him.
OT finished the Gove biography. Apparently he took coke, though I expect you knew that. Boris is shambolic; Gove can start a fight in a phone box. There are some interesting comments about David Cameron seeing loyalty as a one-way street, though I doubt he is unique in that. One for the Christmas list, perhaps, rather than a must-read.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
I have literally heard right wingers claim "if Jews had guns they could have defended themselves against the Nazis". Well, now people see Nazis and punch them and right wingers go "woah, woah, woah, free speech, why can't we just talk to them?"
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
This can’t be true, because @another_richard keeps telling us it is Project Fear.
Its good to see that I'm always on your mind.
Perhaps you'd like to show me where the four quarter recession the Treasury predicted would happen immediately after a Leave vote occurred.
We haven’t left yet, dummy.
As has been explained many, many times the four quarter recession was forecast to immediately follow a Leave VOTE.
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into recession with four quarters of negative growth.
Which should have been within the assumptions of the Treasury forecast - if it wasn't the Treasury was either incompetent or biased.
And if a 0.25% decrease in interest rates was enough to stop a four quarter recession why haven't two 0.25% increases in interest rates had the opposite effect ?
Perhaps you could also tell us when a previous 0.25% decrease in interest rates has had the same supposed effect on the economy.
Just imagine how bad the 2008-09 recession would have been without the BoE slashing interest rates by 4 pp.
According to Toppo the minor dip in July 2016 had more effect on the UK economy than all the ascents and descents of mountains during previous decades.
I do think Trump is toast. I have to be careful that this is not the wish fathering the thought - since his re-election is something I would find sad and depressing beyond measure - but I have conducted a rigorous internal audit and am satisfied that such is not the case. Four years of this will be enough for America. They will not have the stomach for another four. Whoever the Dems pick out of the leading contenders is the next POTUS, it is just a question of the margin. I think it will be comfortable, recession or no recession, and will be a landslide if there is one. And I hope the header is wrong about the possibility of Trump dodging the bullet by pulling out. That would be sub-optimal. The defeat is necessary to lance the boil and drain the pus.
I think you and the header underestimate Trump’s will to win and the legal apparatus he has assembled at federal circuit and SCOTUS level to enable it. Put simply, if he can stop Democrat-leaning demographics from voting in key states, he will win. And many of those states are GOP controlled.
I know the situation in Florida is outrageous, but if your claim turns out to be true across the nation then democracy in the USA is dead.
Broward county is probably the place least able to count its votes in a timely fashion in the whole of the USA. Entirely Democrat controlled. Florida looks very strong for Trump (Probably some home town effect for him as he is based ~ half the time at Mar a Lago) which makes the Democrat task slightly harder. He is also looking good to hold North Carolina I think.
On topic, it depends whether Trump can, under a banner reading "Mission accomplished" on the USS Nimitz, claim he has "made America great again" after just four years. I think even he might have to acknowledge, that task will take four more years.
But don't underestimate the weight of that message. "We are a good way along the road to Making America Great Again. Don't let some inexperienced liberal set the clock back. As they would. We know this is true..."
Interesting point. I think the signs at Trump rallies have changed from MAGA to Keep America Great, which might be a pointer.
I notice Corbyn has vowed again to do "EVERYTHING necessary" to prevent No Deal Brexit.
To be honest, coming good on that vow and delivering such a prevention is the one thing that could move the dial, a little, on my opinion of him, lessening my suspicion he is a full fat disaster socialist. My dial moved a little the other way when he failed to attempt VONC before the summer.
But he should be aware that Everything Necessary includes, when push comes to shove, yielding to Swinson's demands for a PM other than himself, and finding the ways that do exist of facilitating that within Labour party rules.
No need to forecast this - After our No Deal Brexit we’ll be entirely dependent on the French to keep UK freight moving in and out of Calais, entirely dependent on the Spanish to keep the Gibraltar border functioning and entirely dependent on Ireland to keep the NI border flowing. We’re taking back control.
We are taking back control of our country not theirs. What part of that concept do you struggle with?
I struggle with the idea that we gain control by giving it up and that we become more free by removing freedom. Your notions of control and freedom are just very different to mine.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"
The nearest thing on balance that there is to a majority is the group in favour of exit with a deal. The only reason TMs WA didn't go through is that Labour pretended there was something unacceptable about it, and did so for political reasons. Labour were foolish not to allow judicious abstention to get it through while avoiding direct blame for any consequences.
It seems to me that a WA deal is still the most likely outcome, as the EU cannot avoid blame if it sets up a border in Ireland following a do deal exit, so I expect some cosmetic movement in September/October, when the commons will have a clear choice between deal and crash out. Deal will win.
I don't see any evidence for that.
First Meaningful Vote: Aye 202 / Nay 432 - Majority against 230
Second Meaningful Vote: Aye 242 / Nay 391 - Majority against 149
Vote on rejecting No Deal: Aye 321 / Nay 278 - Majority 43
Third Meaningful Vote: Aye 286 / Nay 344 - Majority against 58
No Deal beat the Deal even when May was in charge and three line whipping in favour of the Deal!
Somehow I don't think Boris - even if he loses in the Commons which is not certain - will lose by 230. He probably won't even lose by 58.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
I do think Trump is toast. I have to be careful that this is not the wish fathering the thought - since his re-election is something I would find sad and depressing beyond measure - but I have conducted a rigorous internal audit and am satisfied that such is not the case. Four years of this will be enough for America. They will not have the stomach for another four. Whoever the Dems pick out of the leading contenders is the next POTUS, it is just a question of the margin. I think it will be comfortable, recession or no recession, and will be a landslide if there is one. And I hope the header is wrong about the possibility of Trump dodging the bullet by pulling out. That would be sub-optimal. The defeat is necessary to lance the boil and drain the pus.
I think you and the header underestimate Trump’s will to win and the legal apparatus he has assembled at federal circuit and SCOTUS level to enable it. Put simply, if he can stop Democrat-leaning demographics from voting in key states, he will win. And many of those states are GOP controlled.
I know the situation in Florida is outrageous, but if your claim turns out to be true across the nation then democracy in the USA is dead.
Broward county is probably the place least able to count its votes in a timely fashion in the whole of the USA. Entirely Democrat controlled.
Non sequitur alert. The issue is not about the timely counting of votes, it's about a making it difficult or impossible for Democratic voters to vote.
I notice Corbyn has vowed again to do "EVERYTHING necessary" to prevent No Deal Brexit.
To be honest, coming good on that vow and delivering such a prevention is the one thing that could move the dial, a little, on my opinion of him, lessening my suspicion he is a full fat disaster socialist. My dial moved a little the other way when he failed to attempt VONC before the summer.
But he should be aware that Everything Necessary includes, when push comes to shove, yielding to Swinson's demands for a PM other than himself, and finding the ways that do exist of facilitating that within Labour party rules.
Would he vote for the TM deal if it reappeared? No, of course he wouldn't because he is a repeat offender liar.
Mr. JohnL, on loyalty, aye. That's a common view of leaders.
One reason his men were so admiring of Richard the Lionheart was his attitude. When a foraging party he had sent out during the Third Crusade got into trouble he personally rode to the rescue at the head of a relief force.
Of course, the peasant folk of Aquitaine were less enamoured with him, but that's another story.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
I do think Trump is toast. I have to be careful that this is not the wish fathering the thought - since his re-election is something I would find sad and depressing beyond measure - but I have conducted a rigorous internal audit and am satisfied that such is not the case. Four years of this will be enough for America. They will not have the stomach for another four. Whoever the Dems pick out of the leading contenders is the next POTUS, it is just a question of the margin. I think it will be comfortable, recession or no recession, and will be a landslide if there is one. And I hope the header is wrong about the possibility of Trump dodging the bullet by pulling out. That would be sub-optimal. The defeat is necessary to lance the boil and drain the pus.
I think you and the header underestimate Trump’s will to win and the legal apparatus he has assembled at federal circuit and SCOTUS level to enable it. Put simply, if he can stop Democrat-leaning demographics from voting in key states, he will win. And many of those states are GOP controlled.
I know the situation in Florida is outrageous, but if your claim turns out to be true across the nation then democracy in the USA is dead.
No need to forecast this - After our No Deal Brexit we’ll be entirely dependent on the French to keep UK freight moving in and out of Calais, entirely dependent on the Spanish to keep the Gibraltar border functioning and entirely dependent on Ireland to keep the NI border flowing. We’re taking back control.
We are taking back control of our country not theirs. What part of that concept do you struggle with?
I struggle with the idea that we gain control by giving it up and that we become more free by removing freedom. Your notions of control and freedom are just very different to mine.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
er ... several. The UK does exist north of Kent. At least I am not sitting here under the sea. :-)
Plus aeroplanes (and carrier pigeons). The freight volume is very small.
I do think Trump is toast. I have to be careful that this is not the wish fathering the thought - since his re-election is something I would find sad and depressing beyond measure - but I have conducted a rigorous internal audit and am satisfied that such is not the case. Four years of this will be enough for America. They will not have the stomach for another four. Whoever the Dems pick out of the leading contenders is the next POTUS, it is just a question of the margin. I think it will be comfortable, recession or no recession, and will be a landslide if there is one. And I hope the header is wrong about the possibility of Trump dodging the bullet by pulling out. That would be sub-optimal. The defeat is necessary to lance the boil and drain the pus.
I think you and the header underestimate Trump’s will to win and the legal apparatus he has assembled at federal circuit and SCOTUS level to enable it. Put simply, if he can stop Democrat-leaning demographics from voting in key states, he will win. And many of those states are GOP controlled.
I know the situation in Florida is outrageous, but if your claim turns out to be true across the nation then democracy in the USA is dead.
In certain states it pretty much is.
The recent SCOTUS decision that federal courts should not have a say on districting (gerrymandering) was on a par with the disastrous Citizens United decision.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
"For our personal consumption. We are visiting your Cadbury's World...."
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
er ... several. The UK does exist north of Kent. At least I am not sitting here under the sea. :-)
Plus aeroplanes (and carrier pigeons). The freight volume is very small.
Excellent - carrier pigeons! How did Yellowhammer not think of that?
Any idea that this No Deal Brexit going to be a swift success is for the birds and hard to swallow.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
The same way as their ancestors... The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
"For our personal consumption. We are visiting your Cadbury's World...."
The problem is not just the physical bottleneck at the customs but how do you ensure that the insulin being imported is of good quality. A Chinese supplier of poor quality insulin can supply it into Europe if it declares the product is not for use in the EC. If then his insulin is brought to the border of the UK how do you distinguish between the cheap Chinese product and the good quality Danish product? Is this the responsibility of an untrained customs official. Do we put the few remaining MHRA staff who have not already moved to Netherlands on the border and if so whose is sorting out setting up new regulations.
There are serious management issues with a large number of big decisions needed to be made fast and a lack of trained people to make the decisions. Most of the industry will have no incentive to take risks. Much easier for the Danes to sell to Germany and wait for things to clear in the UK than risk having their product rejected and taking a loss.
Note I am not a doctor of philosophy but I have built up a good sized UK owned medical device company from scratch. I may not be an expert on everything like some on this board but this is my specialist subject which I live and breathe every day.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
er ... several. The UK does exist north of Kent. At least I am not sitting here under the sea. :-)
Plus aeroplanes (and carrier pigeons). The freight volume is very small.
Who would have thought the way for Danish freight going over the sea to get to the UK from Denmark is to go more northerly than Kent already?
Its not as if historically the Scandinavians tended to land in York [or Jorvik] anyway, is it?
I do think Trump is toast. I have to be careful that this is not the wish fathering the thought - since his re-election is something I would find sad and depressing beyond measure - but I have conducted a rigorous internal audit and am satisfied that such is not the case. Four years of this will be enough for America. They will not have the stomach for another four. Whoever the Dems pick out of the leading contenders is the next POTUS, it is just a question of the margin. I think it will be comfortable, recession or no recession, and will be a landslide if there is one. And I hope the header is wrong about the possibility of Trump dodging the bullet by pulling out. That would be sub-optimal. The defeat is necessary to lance the boil and drain the pus.
I think you and the header underestimate Trump’s will to win and the legal apparatus he has assembled at federal circuit and SCOTUS level to enable it. Put simply, if he can stop Democrat-leaning demographics from voting in key states, he will win. And many of those states are GOP controlled.
Fortunately, however, and I don't dispute your premise, it is independents he is losing by the bucketload. The sort of middling, suburban types, who are difficult to identify, let alone suppress, being neither felons nor non-White. He surprised on the upside with this group last time, and they were a huuuge factor in his win.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
"For our personal consumption. We are visiting your Cadbury's World...."
The problem is not just the physical bottleneck at the customs but how do you ensure that the insulin being imported is of good quality. A Chinese supplier of poor quality insulin can supply it into Europe if it declares the product is not for use in the EC. If then his insulin is brought to the border of the UK how do you distinguish between the cheap Chinese product and the good quality Danish product? Is this the responsibility of an untrained customs official. Do we put the few remaining MHRA staff who have not already moved to Netherlands on the border and if so whose is sorting out setting up new regulations.
There are serious management issues with a large number of big decisions needed to be made fast and a lack of trained people to make the decisions. Most of the industry will have no incentive to take risks. Much easier for the Danes to sell to Germany and wait for things to clear in the UK than risk having their product rejected and taking a loss.
Note I am not a doctor of philosophy but I have built up a good sized UK owned medical device company from scratch. I may not be an expert on everything like some on this board but this is my specialist subject which I live and breathe every day.
Is the avatar @kingbongo uses his own PhD certificate?
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Dresden? Hamburg? The Bengal Famine?
We did some fairly horrible things!
If the white supremacists had been stopped earlier Dresden and Hamburg wouldn't have happened. The Bengal Famine just tells us that we had our own fair share of white supremacists on our side too. But overall the British were fighting fascism in WW2 and in my view that puts us firmly on the right side. We should never let that poisonous ideology gain a foothold in the West ever again.
On the diabetes thing and insulin - Danes will get in their cars and bring it over personally if their is any kind of risk to the supply chain - Denmark will not under any circumstances constrain deliveries of insulin to the UK - any civil servant working on Yellowhammer who doesn't understand this is a scaremongering idiot. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Do they have some magic way of avoiding the probable channel ports bottleneck?
"For our personal consumption. We are visiting your Cadbury's World...."
The problem is not just the physical bottleneck at the customs but how do you ensure that the insulin being imported is of good quality. A Chinese supplier of poor quality insulin can supply it into Europe if it declares the product is not for use in the EC. If then his insulin is brought to the border of the UK how do you distinguish between the cheap Chinese product and the good quality Danish product? Is this the responsibility of an untrained customs official. Do we put the few remaining MHRA staff who have not already moved to Netherlands on the border and if so whose is sorting out setting up new regulations.
There are serious management issues with a large number of big decisions needed to be made fast and a lack of trained people to make the decisions. Most of the industry will have no incentive to take risks. Much easier for the Danes to sell to Germany and wait for things to clear in the UK than risk having their product rejected and taking a loss.
Note I am not a doctor of philosophy but I have built up a good sized UK owned medical device company from scratch. I may not be an expert on everything like some on this board but this is my specialist subject which I live and breathe every day.
Worth noting that all insulins are not equivalent, as we see in this cautionary tale:
On topic I think this is a fair bet by Mike. There are a number of reasons why Trump might not be the candidate, from impeachment hearings to health to, as he says, the possibility of him throwing the towel in of his own accord.
I've taken the view for a long time that Trump essentially hates himself, which he compensates for by hating everybody else, treating them as he expects others to treat him and attempting to compensate for his 'failure' by gaining notional successes, whether in money, power or trophies - though as these don't really compensate because they once again run up against his self-worth, they feel fraudulent (though as they are, on their own grounds, successful they also provide another psychological justification - beyond despising other people - *for* genuine fraud).
However, Mueller has given Trump a big legal problem; one which winning again, combined with statutes of limitations and presidential immunity go a long way to brush away. Chances are, Trump's old age will be dogged by legal fights resulting from his actions as president (or, indeed, in business by prosecutors who have plenty of reasons entirely apart from the law for trying to make their names in such cases). Still, four years near-immunity is a good start, isn't it?
But does that make it a 90%+ shot he will run again and win the nomination again (it will be contested, if only notionally)? I'm not sure. Add in the other reasons why Trump might not stand - or, if he does stand, might not win - and I think the lay is the value.
The nearest thing on balance that there is to a majority is the group in favour of exit with a deal. The only reason TMs WA didn't go through is that Labour pretended there was something unacceptable about it, and did so for political reasons. Labour were foolish not to allow judicious abstention to get it through while avoiding direct blame for any consequences.
It seems to me that a WA deal is still the most likely outcome, as the EU cannot avoid blame if it sets up a border in Ireland following a do deal exit, so I expect some cosmetic movement in September/October, when the commons will have a clear choice between deal and crash out. Deal will win.
I think this IS the real Johnson plan. Brexit under something like the WA and then a general election.
It might work and it might not. Regardless, I think 2020 is when we find out. All I see happening this year is a failed VONC and an extension for fresh talks with the EU.
On topic I think this is a fair bet by Mike. There are a number of reasons why Trump might not be the candidate, from impeachment hearings to health to, as he says, the possibility of him throwing the towel in of his own accord.
I've taken the view for a long time that Trump essentially hates himself, which he compensates for by hating everybody else, treating them as he expects others to treat him and attempting to compensate for his 'failure' by gaining notional successes, whether in money, power or trophies - though as these don't really compensate because they once again run up against his self-worth, they feel fraudulent (though as they are, on their own grounds, successful they also provide another psychological justification - beyond despising other people - *for* genuine fraud).
However, Mueller has given Trump a big legal problem; one which winning again, combined with statutes of limitations and presidential immunity go a long way to brush away. Chances are, Trump's old age will be dogged by legal fights resulting from his actions as president (or, indeed, in business by prosecutors who have plenty of reasons entirely apart from the law for trying to make their names in such cases). Still, four years near-immunity is a good start, isn't it?
But does that make it a 90%+ shot he will run again and win the nomination again (it will be contested, if only notionally)? I'm not sure. Add in the other reasons why Trump might not stand - or, if he does stand, might not win - and I think the lay is the value.
Self-hatred would require a level of introspection from Trump that he gives no impression of having. I do think, though, that he is a man who has never experienced unconditional love at any point in his life. This has profoundly damaged him.
I don't think there's a great deal of introspection required. It all stems from a belief that "I'm not good enough", and as being good enough is all that matters, he feels a failure (or, in his words, 'loser') and hates himself for it - which is why he boasts in the most absurd ways, because to accept that he's not the greatest ever at everything is, by definition, a failure.
Completely agree about him never having been loved unconditionally. Or perhaps, at all?
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Dresden? Hamburg? The Bengal Famine?
We did some fairly horrible things!
If the white supremacists had been stopped earlier Dresden and Hamburg wouldn't have happened. The Bengal Famine just tells us that we had our own fair share of white supremacists on our side too. But overall the British were fighting fascism in WW2 and in my view that puts us firmly on the right side. We should never let that poisonous ideology gain a foothold in the West ever again.
Good to know you'll be taking up arms against Corbyn's anti-semites then.
I know the situation in Florida is outrageous, but if your claim turns out to be true across the nation then democracy in the USA is dead.
I wouldn't go that far, but the fact that "voter suppression" is now a thing, not a conspiracy theory but a recognised campaign tactic (deliberate use of social media and extreme requirements for registration to discourage opponents from bothering) is pretty significant.
On topic I think this is a fair bet by Mike. There are a number of reasons why Trump might not be the candidate, from impeachment hearings to health to, as he says, the possibility of him throwing the towel in of his own accord.
I've taken the view for a long time that Trump essentially hates himself, which he compensates for by hating everybody else, treating them as he expects others to treat him and attempting to compensate for his 'failure' by gaining notional successes, whether in money, power or trophies - though as these don't really compensate because they once again run up against his self-worth, they feel fraudulent (though as they are, on their own grounds, successful they also provide another psychological justification - beyond despising other people - *for* genuine fraud).
However, Mueller has given Trump a big legal problem; one which winning again, combined with statutes of limitations and presidential immunity go a long way to brush away. Chances are, Trump's old age will be dogged by legal fights resulting from his actions as president (or, indeed, in business by prosecutors who have plenty of reasons entirely apart from the law for trying to make their names in such cases). Still, four years near-immunity is a good start, isn't it?
But does that make it a 90%+ shot he will run again and win the nomination again (it will be contested, if only notionally)? I'm not sure. Add in the other reasons why Trump might not stand - or, if he does stand, might not win - and I think the lay is the value.
Self-hatred would require a level of introspection from Trump that he gives no impression of having. I do think, though, that he is a man who has never experienced unconditional love at any point in his life. This has profoundly damaged him.
I don’t want to be seen as part of project fear but just to explain that there are good reasons why out industry is so paranoid about regulations. We never just wing it.
It is ridiculous that the ferries to/from Northern Ireland are the most expensive.
Given the challenges of the Northern Irish economy, they should be the cheapest.
Again, a pro-Union government would be proactively tackling this stuff. All May did was talk about “this precious Union”, though even that was probably an advance on Cameron.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Dresden? Hamburg? The Bengal Famine?
We did some fairly horrible things!
If the white supremacists had been stopped earlier Dresden and Hamburg wouldn't have happened. The Bengal Famine just tells us that we had our own fair share of white supremacists on our side too. But overall the British were fighting fascism in WW2 and in my view that puts us firmly on the right side. We should never let that poisonous ideology gain a foothold in the West ever again.
Good to know you'll be taking up arms against Corbyn's anti-semites then.
I have literally heard right wingers claim "if Jews had guns they could have defended themselves against the Nazis". Well, now people see Nazis and punch them and right wingers go "woah, woah, woah, free speech, why can't we just talk to them?"
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
It is ridiculous that the ferries to/from Northern Ireland are the most expensive.
Given the challenges of the Northern Irish economy, they should be the cheapest.
Again, a pro-Union government would be proactively tackling this stuff. All May did was talk about “this precious Union”, though even that was probably an advance on Cameron.
Isn't that just an example of supply and demand - with demand not being great enough for decent competition..
It is ridiculous that the ferries to/from Northern Ireland are the most expensive.
Given the challenges of the Northern Irish economy, they should be the cheapest.
Again, a pro-Union government would be proactively tackling this stuff. All May did was talk about “this precious Union”, though even that was probably an advance on Cameron.
Isn't that just an example of supply and demand - with demand not being great enough for decent competition..
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
Which parts of state apparatus do facists control as of now ?
It is ridiculous that the ferries to/from Northern Ireland are the most expensive.
Given the challenges of the Northern Irish economy, they should be the cheapest.
Again, a pro-Union government would be proactively tackling this stuff. All May did was talk about “this precious Union”, though even that was probably an advance on Cameron.
Isn't that just an example of supply and demand - with demand not being great enough for decent competition..
The stats are a bit misleading. What the price/km figures show is that the fuel costs for running a ferry operation are small compared with all the other running costs.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Dresden? Hamburg? The Bengal Famine?
We did some fairly horrible things!
If the white supremacists had been stopped earlier Dresden and Hamburg wouldn't have happened. The Bengal Famine just tells us that we had our own fair share of white supremacists on our side too. But overall the British were fighting fascism in WW2 and in my view that puts us firmly on the right side. We should never let that poisonous ideology gain a foothold in the West ever again.
Good to know you'll be taking up arms against Corbyn's anti-semites then.
I have literally heard right wingers claim "if Jews had guns they could have defended themselves against the Nazis". Well, now people see Nazis and punch them and right wingers go "woah, woah, woah, free speech, why can't we just talk to them?"
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
Also, Corbyn may or may not be an anti semite. But he doesn't have a policy of forcibly deporting Jews. Fascists advocate that and worse every time they go out in the street and march for a white ethnostate.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Dresden? Hamburg? The Bengal Famine?
We did some fairly horrible things!
If the white supremacists had been stopped earlier Dresden and Hamburg wouldn't have happened. The Bengal Famine just tells us that we had our own fair share of white supremacists on our side too. But overall the British were fighting fascism in WW2 and in my view that puts us firmly on the right side. We should never let that poisonous ideology gain a foothold in the West ever again.
Good to know you'll be taking up arms against Corbyn's anti-semites then.
I have literally heard right wingers claim "if Jews had guns they could have defended themselves against the Nazis". Well, now people see Nazis and punch them and right wingers go "woah, woah, woah, free speech, why can't we just talk to them?"
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
Left wingers like you see Nazis behind everyone who doesn't kow-tow to Corbyn. You gonna punch them all?
Talking of diabetes, sugar levels in chocolate have gone up from 44.6 % to 54.7%.
Cadburys fruit and nut up from 32.7% to over 50% ! I had no idea the recipe changed so much from 1992 to now
Has the hated sugar tax made your pop just not teeth dissolvingly sweet enough? Drop in a couple of squares of fruit and nut, and you get 2 of your 5 a day!
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
Which parts of state apparatus do facists control as of now ?
I'm not saying they do, what I am saying is if there is a political movement of fascists, who do not care about democratic norms, and they gain power when is it acceptable to use violence to prevent them getting that power.
At the moment fascism in the UK is mostly street level. Arguably in the US their are some in the federal government. A recent attempted judge appointment on the federal bench is a white ethnostateist.
It is ridiculous that the ferries to/from Northern Ireland are the most expensive.
Given the challenges of the Northern Irish economy, they should be the cheapest.
Again, a pro-Union government would be proactively tackling this stuff. All May did was talk about “this precious Union”, though even that was probably an advance on Cameron.
The DUP should have pushed for massive ferry subsidies as part of the price of propping up May's Govt. Not quite sure what they did get that has actually been delivered.
@148grss violence in the streets will just lead to Tory majorities. Brits do not like violence.
There is only anti fascist violence where there are fascist street movements. Other leftists may use violence for other reasons, but the anti fascist movement is just concentrated on reacting to the rise of fascism.
Fuck that. Literal nazis are not the same as somewhat obnoxious lefties. Spencer literally calls for the US to become an white ethnostate, his politics is inherently violent. Punching him and his ilk to keep them off the streets is an act of self defence. Beating up a left wing, gay journalist is not that.
That chart is just highly concentrated essence of political smugness.
It is still true both in detail and in its overarching point. Nazis and fascists are a clear danger to our civilisation as we know from history and all measures are appropriate to halt their spread, including confronting them with force - especially if the state is unwilling to do so itself.
Oh just shut up. It is contemptible and dangerous on both sides.
That's nonsense. One side uses violence to intimidate innocent people, the other uses violence to prevent that. Your argument would make the British and the Germans morally equivalent in WW2, and is frankly disgusting.
Dresden? Hamburg? The Bengal Famine?
We did some fairly horrible things!
If the white supremacists had been stopped earlier Dresden and Hamburg wouldn't have happened. The Bengal Famine just tells us that we had our own fair share of white supremacists on our side too. But overall the British were fighting fascism in WW2 and in my view that puts us firmly on the right side. We should never let that poisonous ideology gain a foothold in the West ever again.
Good to know you'll be taking up arms against Corbyn's anti-semites then.
I have literally heard right wingers claim "if Jews had guns they could have defended themselves against the Nazis". Well, now people see Nazis and punch them and right wingers go "woah, woah, woah, free speech, why can't we just talk to them?"
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
Left wingers like you see Nazis behind everyone who doesn't kow-tow to Corbyn. You gonna punch them all?
I don't support Corbyn or Labour, so already wrong.
Comments
https://twitter.com/michaelwhite/status/1163370946163552256?s=20
Or are they talking out of their arse as per usual?
Miss Vance, that's interesting. Could be a non-MP leak, though.
The modelling for the post-Brexit Referendum was garbage by not just not realising what the BoE would do but for actually modelling the exact OPPOSITE of what it did.
Had the model assumed ceteris paribus that would be ignorant enough for what is supposed to be a serious projection. It didn't, the BoE forecast it would raise rates and then when it occured it cut them instead.
That betrays politics not credible economic modelling. "Vote Brexit and we'll need to raise interest rates and there'll be a recession immediately" is much more threatening politically than "vote Brexit and we'll cut interest rates but not much else will change immediately".
If you want a serious economic model you need to seriously predict what relevant actors will do and you don't get much more relevant than the BoE.
The nearest thing on balance that there is to a majority is the group in favour of exit with a deal. The only reason TMs WA didn't go through is that Labour pretended there was something unacceptable about it, and did so for political reasons. Labour were foolish not to allow judicious abstention to get it through while avoiding direct blame for any consequences.
It seems to me that a WA deal is still the most likely outcome, as the EU cannot avoid blame if it sets up a border in Ireland following a do deal exit, so I expect some cosmetic movement in September/October, when the commons will have a clear choice between deal and crash out. Deal will win.
I've taken the view for a long time that Trump essentially hates himself, which he compensates for by hating everybody else, treating them as he expects others to treat him and attempting to compensate for his 'failure' by gaining notional successes, whether in money, power or trophies - though as these don't really compensate because they once again run up against his self-worth, they feel fraudulent (though as they are, on their own grounds, successful they also provide another psychological justification - beyond despising other people - *for* genuine fraud).
However, Mueller has given Trump a big legal problem; one which winning again, combined with statutes of limitations and presidential immunity go a long way to brush away. Chances are, Trump's old age will be dogged by legal fights resulting from his actions as president (or, indeed, in business by prosecutors who have plenty of reasons entirely apart from the law for trying to make their names in such cases). Still, four years near-immunity is a good start, isn't it?
But does that make it a 90%+ shot he will run again and win the nomination again (it will be contested, if only notionally)? I'm not sure. Add in the other reasons why Trump might not stand - or, if he does stand, might not win - and I think the lay is the value.
And if a 0.25% decrease in interest rates was enough to stop a four quarter recession why haven't two 0.25% increases in interest rates had the opposite effect ?
Perhaps you could also tell us when a previous 0.25% decrease in interest rates has had the same supposed effect on the economy.
My remarks were more aimed at Twitter propagandists, and the wider media. So apologies for any offence caused to yourself.
For example, this sort of Hariesque coverage in the Independent:
(Side note: 2019 - 3.9 million diabetics in UK, 320k or so with Type I insulin dependent, perhaps another 200k with Type II.)
"Millions of diabetes patients, including Theresa May herself, could be “seriously disadvantaged” if supplies of insulin are affected by a no-deal Brexit, the chair of the UK medicines regulator has said.
In the latest warning over disruption if Britain crashes out of the EU, Sir Michael Rawlins said the UK imports “every drop” of insulin, a vital medication used by some 3.7 million people to manage the chronic condition."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-medicine-stockpile-insulin-no-deal-nhs-diabetes-a8467516.html
The Indy has plenty more of that school.
That is Indy 'writer' Lizzy Buchanan. The quote in para 1 is fabricated - not what he said, and seems to be based on a lie by Chris Leslie MP published on the People's Vote website (*). That also gave us this kind of trolling of diabetics (by the Head of Channel4 News) - a supply issue is remanufactured into 'type-1 diabetics dying'. Contemptible.
https://twitter.com/oliverjamesking/status/1022873025253978112
(* https://www.peoples-vote.uk/leslie_critical_warning_on_insulin_shows_how_serious_no_deal_would_be_for_this_country)
You are an economist which gives you an insight into how these things work. If you possess anything more than an undergraduate degree then you should know all this.
You pompous pillock.
There were good business reasons for doing it given relevant lifecycles but it was so bastardised as to be rendered worthless (and the assumptions needed to make an even vaguely credible 10Y forecast are heroic).
https://twitter.com/KiraguBCityDad/status/1163304466155745280
But don't underestimate the weight of that message. "We are a good way along the road to Making America Great Again. Don't let some inexperienced liberal set the clock back. As they would. We know this is true..."
Its noticeable that the more intelligent Remainers - Foxy, Southam, Viewcode, AM for example - don't make themselves look silly arguing along your lines.
We did some fairly horrible things!
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
https://www.propertyinvestmentproject.co.uk/property-statistics/uk-interest-rate-history-graph/
Florida looks very strong for Trump (Probably some home town effect for him as he is based ~ half the time at Mar a Lago) which makes the Democrat task slightly harder.
He is also looking good to hold North Carolina I think.
To be honest, coming good on that vow and delivering such a prevention is the one thing that could move the dial, a little, on my opinion of him, lessening my suspicion he is a full fat disaster socialist. My dial moved a little the other way when he failed to attempt VONC before the summer.
But he should be aware that Everything Necessary includes, when push comes to shove, yielding to Swinson's demands for a PM other than himself, and finding the ways that do exist of facilitating that within Labour party rules.
First Meaningful Vote: Aye 202 / Nay 432 - Majority against 230
Second Meaningful Vote: Aye 242 / Nay 391 - Majority against 149
Vote on rejecting No Deal: Aye 321 / Nay 278 - Majority 43
Third Meaningful Vote: Aye 286 / Nay 344 - Majority against 58
No Deal beat the Deal even when May was in charge and three line whipping in favour of the Deal!
Somehow I don't think Boris - even if he loses in the Commons which is not certain - will lose by 230. He probably won't even lose by 58.
One reason his men were so admiring of Richard the Lionheart was his attitude. When a foraging party he had sent out during the Third Crusade got into trouble he personally rode to the rescue at the head of a relief force.
Of course, the peasant folk of Aquitaine were less enamoured with him, but that's another story.
https://youtu.be/HdBTe9RXJPc
Plus aeroplanes (and carrier pigeons). The freight volume is very small.
Any idea that this No Deal Brexit going to be a swift success is for the birds and hard to swallow.
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/18/a-bridge-across-the-irish-sea-is-a-ridiculous-idea-but-the-ferries-between-northern-ireland-and-scotland-are-the-most-expensive-in-the-uk/
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1163377328719876098?s=20
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands.
There are serious management issues with a large number of big decisions needed to be made fast and a lack of trained people to make the decisions. Most of the industry will have no incentive to take risks. Much easier for the Danes to sell to Germany and wait for things to clear in the UK than risk having their product rejected and taking a loss.
Note I am not a doctor of philosophy but I have built up a good sized UK owned medical device company from scratch. I may not be an expert on everything like some on this board but this is my specialist subject which I live and breathe every day.
Its not as if historically the Scandinavians tended to land in York [or Jorvik] anyway, is it?
Luxury.
I saw a path once. Well, I say a path, it was a goat track in the middle of a forest. But it was a path to me.
He surprised on the upside with this group last time, and they were a huuuge factor in his win.
Cadburys fruit and nut up from 32.7% to over 50% ! I had no idea the recipe changed so much from 1992 to now
The Bengal Famine just tells us that we had our own fair share of white supremacists on our side too.
But overall the British were fighting fascism in WW2 and in my view that puts us firmly on the right side. We should never let that poisonous ideology gain a foothold in the West ever again.
https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1158807466383159296?s=19
It might work and it might not. Regardless, I think 2020 is when we find out. All I see happening this year is a failed VONC and an extension for fresh talks with the EU.
Completely agree about him never having been loved unconditionally. Or perhaps, at all?
We are starting to see it over here too IMO.
I don’t want to be seen as part of project fear but just to explain that there are good reasons why out industry is so paranoid about regulations. We never just wing it.
Given the challenges of the Northern Irish economy, they should be the cheapest.
Again, a pro-Union government would be proactively tackling this stuff. All May did was talk about “this precious Union”, though even that was probably an advance on Cameron.
The issue is if you refuse to sanction political violence against fascism up until the point the fascists already control all state apparatus, we're too late and we're already fucked. That is why anti-fascist street movements are important.
At the moment fascism in the UK is mostly street level. Arguably in the US their are some in the federal government. A recent attempted judge appointment on the federal bench is a white ethnostateist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tznHwD66yQ0&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0VOI1IZqJQtRiM4xupS2b_svgdKyp2G2vOpe3yh_W5SZ7JbrLhXc15qO8
Whether called by Boris pre-emptively, or whether triggered by a VONC.
The key battle fronts are:
Conservative / Lib Dem
Labour / Conservative
SNP / Other
Currently, I’d expect the Cons to pick up 15 from Labour and lose 25 to the Lib Dems.
I’d expect SNP to gain 10, let’s say 5 from Cons and 5 from Labour.
Therefore, a reasonably likely scenario to me is something like (rounded):
Con 300
Labour 240
Lib Dem 40
SNP 45
I have long assumed that the next parliament will be a Labour minority government with LDs and SNP providing confidence and supply.