Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.
We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
Oh absolutely not, Boris would remain leader of the Tory Party with the vast majority of Tory MPs and an even bigger majority of Tory members and voters fully behind him as Leader of the Leaver Opposition to take the fight to the Clarke led Remainer Government, propped up by Hammond, Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon betraying the will of the people.
Boris will relish being the champion of the people against the establishment Remainer coup and the idea of a Tory Remainer like Ken Clarke as PM propped up by Corbyn to betray Brexit will go down a treat in Labour Leave seats Boris needs to win to win the next general election
What was it about the millionaire Etonian that attracted him to the role of champion of the people against the Establishment?
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.
We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
Oh absolutely not, Boris would remain leader of the Tory Party with the vast majority of Tory MPs and an even bigger majority of Tory members and voters fully behind him as Leader of the Leaver Opposition to take the fight to the Clarke led Remainer Government, propped up by Hammond, Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon betraying the will of the people.
Boris will relish being the champion of the people against the establishment Remainer coup and the idea of a Tory Remainer like Ken Clarke as PM propped up by Corbyn to betray Brexit will go down a treat in Labour Leave seats Boris needs to win to win the next general election
What was it about the millionaire Etonian that attracted him to the role of champion of the people against the Establishment?
Well the billionaires Trump and Berlusconi won elections doing precisely that
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.
We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
So PM - what’s your policy ?
Well extend then er...
Tbf to KC he was very clear on this point on PM. That the important thing was to unite around a plan not a person. I fear he is somewhat Sui Generis amongst MPs of all persuasions on this.
He actually will countenance plans that he personally would not like, not just says he might. Its what separates him from those who merely talk about being reasonable.
You say 'Labour' but it isn't Labour. Not as far as the current membership goes. Whatever they are, and I suspect it is mainly student millennial Grace Blakely marxists and clapped out 1970s Trots, they aren't the people who helped Wilson or Blair win several times.
Yes they are - mostly. The majority of members who I know in both my current and my former CLPs have been members (sometimes on and off) for 20+ years - typically they joined around age 30 and are now around age 50. Most are like me, pragmatic leftists who favour the most left-wing government (within reason) that can realistically be achieved. In 1997 there was so much to do to clean up the Tory shambles that Blair's agenda was plenty to be getting on with. By 2010, we felt we'd run through that agenda, and by 2015 we wanted something more radical.
The tug of war is *always* between people who think that the party if it moves too far left, and people who think it's only worth winning if you're attractively left-wing. Very few members have ever actually wanted to be Christian Democrat types - it's just that some felt it was necessary. In the present climate, perhaps not.
All my immediate family are Labour members. I am not. None of them are 70s Trots or millennial Marxists. They hold a range of views on Corbyn, and on the left/centre balance of the Party. Not always left = pro or centre = anti either.
Whatever happened to Leon Trotsky? He got an ice pick That made his ears burn Whatever happened to Dear old Lenin? The great O'Mara And Sancho Panza? Whatever happened to the heroes? Whatever happened to the heroes? Whatever happened to All of the heroes? All the Shakespearoes? They watched their Rome burn Whatever happened to the heroes? Whatever happened to the heroes? No more heroes any more No more heroes any more
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.
We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
Oh absolutely not, Boris would remain leader of the Tory Party with the vast majority of Tory MPs and an even bigger majority of Tory members and voters fully behind him as Leader of the Leaver Opposition to take the fight to the Clarke led Remainer Government, propped up by Hammond, Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon betraying the will of the people.
Boris will relish being the champion of the people against the establishment Remainer coup and the idea of a Tory Remainer like Ken Clarke as PM propped up by Corbyn to betray Brexit will go down a treat in Labour Leave seats Boris needs to win to win the next general election
What was it about the millionaire Etonian that attracted him to the role of champion of the people against the Establishment?
Well the billionaires Trump and Berlusconi won elections doing precisely that
Trump and Berlusconi are as establishment as they come. They ran proposing to uphold existing power structures. The former that white, Christian men should call the shots, the latter on cozy quasi corruption and the Church should do so.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.
We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
Oh absolutely not, Boris would remain leader of the Tory Party with the vast majority of Tory MPs and an even bigger majority of Tory members and voters fully behind him as Leader of the Leaver Opposition to take the fight to the Clarke led Remainer Government, propped up by Hammond, Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon betraying the will of the people.
Boris will relish being the champion of the people against the establishment Remainer coup and the idea of a Tory Remainer like Ken Clarke as PM propped up by Corbyn to betray Brexit will go down a treat in Labour Leave seats Boris needs to win to win the next general election
What was it about the millionaire Etonian that attracted him to the role of champion of the people against the Establishment?
Well the billionaires Trump and Berlusconi won elections doing precisely that
Trump and Berlusconi are as establishment as they come. They ran proposing to uphold existing power structures. The former that white, Christian men should call the shots, the latter on cozy quasi corruption and the Church should do so.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.
We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
Oh absolutely not, Boris would remain leader of the Tory Party with the vast majority of Tory MPs and an even bigger majority of Tory members and voters fully behind him as Leader of the Leaver Opposition to take the fight to the Clarke led Remainer Government, propped up by Hammond, Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon betraying the will of the people.
Boris will relish being the champion of the people against the establishment Remainer coup and the idea of a Tory Remainer like Ken Clarke as PM propped up by Corbyn to betray Brexit will go down a treat in Labour Leave seats Boris needs to win to win the next general election
What was it about the millionaire Etonian that attracted him to the role of champion of the people against the Establishment?
Well the billionaires Trump and Berlusconi won elections doing precisely that
Trump and Berlusconi are as establishment as they come. They ran proposing to uphold existing power structures. The former that white, Christian men should call the shots, the latter on cozy quasi corruption and the Church should do so.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.
We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
Oh absolutely not, Boris would remain leader of the Tory Party with the vast majority of Tory MPs and an even bigger needs to win to win the next general election
What was it about the millionaire Etonian that attracted him to the role of champion of the people against the Establishment?
Well the billionaires Trump and Berlusconi won elections doing precisely that
Trump and Berlusconi are as establishment as they come. They ran proposing to uphold existing power structures. The former that white, Christian men should call the shots, the latter on cozy quasi corruption and the Church should do so.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
They didn't and it doesn't.
They did and it does, see the determination of the judiciary to take on Berlusconi and the demonisation of Trump by the establishment US media
So why are so many long standing members leaving in disgust?
It depends what you mean by "so many". Membership is about 15% off the peak of 3 years ago, partly as the £3ers have mostly drifted off, but it's still much larger than 10 years ago. I know quite a few members uneasy at the polls or who are anti-Corbyn, but only a handful who've actually left. Having Boris as an opponent helps!
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
Berlusconi does not own all the Italian channels and certainly not in the digital age and he does not own the Italian newspapers either
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
I used to be a civil servant. I must have missed the invites to the Left Liberal Civil Service Conference, with its presentations of Overthrowing Decent Right Wingers. They seemed to have mixed them up with the Government Statistical Service conferences, with its presentations on medical and social stats. Curse them!
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
Australia? That's just Murdoch.
In Australia Murdoch does not own Fairfax media or ABC news
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
I used to be a civil servant. I must have missed the invites to the Left Liberal Civil Service Conference, with its presentations of Overthrowing Decent Right Wingers. They seemed to have mixed them up with the Government Statistical Service conferences, with its presentations on medical and social stats. Curse them!
The vast majority of civil servants were and remain Remainers and in the US the highest voting Democratic area in the EC is the District of Colombia
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
I used to be a civil servant. I must have missed the invites to the Left Liberal Civil Service Conference, with its presentations of Overthrowing Decent Right Wingers. They seemed to have mixed them up with the Government Statistical Service conferences, with its presentations on medical and social stats. Curse them!
The vast majority of civil servants were and remain Remainers and in the US the highest voting Democratic area in the EC is the District of Colombia
It is true that less than 52% are leave voters (and it can be annoying that they don’t understand what motivates leave voters) but ultimately they are professional and will do as instructed. The trouble is the last Gvt had not policies.
As Mandy was a 3 times election winning strategist we shall see whether Cummings is good enough to even win one.
Counterfactual: if Mandy hadn't rescued Brown's government and carried the 2010 election campaign, Cameron might have won a majority in 2010, and subsequent events would have played out differently - no toxifying of the Lib Dems, no caving in on holding an EU referendum, etc.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
The fun thing about HYUFD posts (apart from the polling ones, which are in their own class) is that they take a standard right-wing subtext that's always kind of implied but never actually fleshed out into anything concrete, and turn them into actual specific claims... at which point everyone can see that they're total bollocks.
Boris may well win a majority as@HYUFD has long predicted to some derision. However, I do not see him presiding over a change in the sort of people who run the media, civil service and judiciary. Does anyone? Therefore he is the Establishment. Just like Trump and Berlusconi. Why can't Conservatives just argue they are fighting for the status quo? Nowt wrong with that, it is a long standing and honourable political tradition. Because since 2008, the status quo in society has been unelectable and indefensible.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
I used to be a civil servant. I must have missed the invites to the Left Liberal Civil Service Conference, with its presentations of Overthrowing Decent Right Wingers. They seemed to have mixed them up with the Government Statistical Service conferences, with its presentations on medical and social stats. Curse them!
The vast majority of civil servants were and remain Remainers and in the US the highest voting Democratic area in the EC is the District of Colombia
You think the heads of government, in the very highest levels of the US, actually live in DC?
Boris may well win a majority as@HYUFD has long predicted to some derision. However, I do not see him presiding over a change in the sort of people who run the media, civil service and judiciary. Does anyone? Therefore he is the Establishment. Just like Trump and Berlusconi. Why can't Conservatives just argue they are fighting for the status quo? Nowt wrong with that, it is a long standing and honourable political tradition. Because since 2008, the status quo in society has been unelectable and indefensible.
The status quo pre 2016 and pre Boris and Trump was pro EU, pro globalisation, pro immigration with few controls, they are certainly not the status quo.
The status quo in Italy pre Berlusconi was corporatist and secular, again he was not for the status quo
Ah, undefined discussion subject.. that old chestnut.
It's a shame because discussion here is always so closely aligned to the thread header
Its like a flow chart.
Is thread header about Brexit: If so, closely aligned Is thread header not Brexit: If so, not aligned.
Barring talk about sport, wine, restaurants, travel, books and US politics of course.
We've not had a good chat about who has the most diamond studded air miles for a while.
Can I just say the lounge in CDG 2E Gate K isn't anything as good as the lounge in Gate L.
Gate L is as nice as the new KLM non-Schangen lounge at Schiphol which was a surprise.
For those that liked British Rail sandwiches from circa 1978 a visit to the lounge in Sofia would be a great highlight of your trip. Otherwise I would really recommend not bothering. Cheap cigs though if you still smoke.
To add - why does Air France serve champagne but doesn't offer proper champagne flutes? I've asked them before and they still can't give a decent answer..
Did you ask them in English in an "Allo, Allo" accent? "Deer Aire Fronce, whay doo yoo sarve...". They appreciate that approach, I understand...
Nope in my best french (so probably très bad but c'est le vie). It's is a mystery to them as much as to me as Schiphol has switched to Cava (cheaper) but retained the more appropriate glasses.
In other news my flight is now delayed 90 minutes so I'm glad Newcastle is a 24 hour airport...
I once stayed in the Britannia Hotel, in 2017. Did the entire Metro, plus Newcastle to Berwick and Newcastle to Carlisle and main line to Sunderland.
The Newcastle Metro (Tube) goes to Sunderland these days. Sounds like you need another trip up there!
Ah, undefined discussion subject.. that old chestnut.
It's a shame because discussion here is always so closely aligned to the thread header
Its like a flow chart.
Is thread header about Brexit: If so, closely aligned Is thread header not Brexit: If so, not aligned.
Barring talk about sport, wine, restaurants, travel, books and US politics of course.
We've not had a good chat about who has the most diamond studded air miles for a while.
Can I just say the lounge in CDG 2E Gate K isn't anything as good as the lounge in Gate L.
Gate L is as nice as the new KLM non-Schangen lounge at Schiphol which was a surprise.
For those that liked British Rail sandwiches from circa 1978 a visit to the lounge in Sofia would be a great highlight of your trip. Otherwise I would really recommend not bothering. Cheap cigs though if you still smoke.
To add - why does Air France serve champagne but doesn't offer proper champagne flutes? I've asked them before and they still can't give a decent answer..
Did you ask them in English in an "Allo, Allo" accent? "Deer Aire Fronce, whay doo yoo sarve...". They appreciate that approach, I understand...
Nope in my best french (so probably très bad but c'est le vie). It's is a mystery to them as much as to me as Schiphol has switched to Cava (cheaper) but retained the more appropriate glasses.
In other news my flight is now delayed 90 minutes so I'm glad Newcastle is a 24 hour airport...
I once stayed in the Britannia Hotel, in 2017. Did the entire Metro, plus Newcastle to Berwick and Newcastle to Carlisle and main line to Sunderland.
The Newcastle Metro (Tube) goes to Sunderland these days. Sounds like you need another trip up there!
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
Australia? That's just Murdoch.
In Australia Murdoch does not own Fairfax media or ABC news
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
Berlusconi does not own all the Italian channels and certainly not in the digital age and he does not own the Italian newspapers either
Ah, the Italian newspapers.
Those enormously influential ones...
We'd all agree i is exceptionally unimportant, yes? Do you know what it's circulation is? About 250,000. The biggest selling newspaper in Italy sells fewer copies than i.
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
Berlusconi does not own all the Italian channels and certainly not in the digital age and he does not own the Italian newspapers either
Ah, the Italian newspapers.
Those enormously influential ones...
We'd all agree i is exceptionally unimportant, yes? Do you know what it's circulation is? About 250,000. The biggest selling newspaper in Italy sells fewer copies than i.
And isn’t the best-selling newspaper in Italy La Gazzetta della Sport?
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
Berlusconi owns the media in Italy.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
Berlusconi does not own all the Italian channels and certainly not in the digital age and he does not own the Italian newspapers either
Ah, the Italian newspapers.
Those enormously influential ones...
We'd all agree i is exceptionally unimportant, yes? Do you know what it's circulation is? About 250,000. The biggest selling newspaper in Italy sells fewer copies than i.
And isn’t the best-selling newspaper in Italy La Gazzetta della Sport?
To be fair, they often say left wing things.
Like the Inter Milan left wing played a blinder against Lazio.
Am I the only one who feels like there’s very little medium term insight in UK politics right now, because people are finding it impossible to see beyond Brexit and the Oct deadline?
It might make some feel warm and cuddly to imagine Ken Clarke walking into number 10 to a brass band playing Karma Police (mentioning no names!). But to get there, perhaps a fifth to a quarter of the parliamentary Tory party would need to openly defy the 66% of members that just elected Boris. Short term impact: Brexit deferred, warm and fuzzy feeling achieved. Medium term impact: The Brexit Party becomes the party of the right and in time quite possibly the party of government.
The same goes for those on the Brexit side frankly (that’d be me 😱). NO DEAL ON 31 OCT YEAH BABY!! WE’RE OUT! Then what? Unilateral zero tariffs forever? Perhaps not. What then?
Grieve and the gang are basically Robb Stark. Win all the battles but lose the war.
I know Swinson has her fans here but she looks all over the place to me.
Judgement pending on Johnson/Cummings, perhaps they do have a plan after all. But for now Jezza is one of the few that seems to have the power of strategic thought. I might find his politics boneheaded and a lot else rather distasteful but he’s played a total blinder for 4 years now. Listening to Nick, it’s quite clear what Corbyn has achieved is to carve out a strong socialist presence in the UK debate (that will soon be unconstrained by the ECJ) and this socialist platform will only get stronger when he retires.
It might make some feel warm and cuddly to imagine Ken Clarke walking into number 10 to a brass band playing Karma Police (mentioning no names!). But to get there, perhaps a fifth to a quarter of the parliamentary Tory party would need to openly defy the 66% of members that just elected Boris.
I guess this is on the Nick Palmer estimate where if you try to put up a Tory you get like 50 Lab MPs voting against. I think it's hard to imagine that many Tories going kamikaze, so if he's right it's just not going to happen.
I almost feel like Sylvia Hermon is the *only* candidate who could pull this off. Saving peace in NI is the only thing the whole opposition (including lab-leave) agree on.
The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.
I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
The SNP's spin department will be taking notes as well.
It might make some feel warm and cuddly to imagine Ken Clarke walking into number 10 to a brass band playing Karma Police (mentioning no names!). But to get there, perhaps a fifth to a quarter of the parliamentary Tory party would need to openly defy the 66% of members that just elected Boris.
I guess this is on the Nick Palmer estimate where if you try to put up a Tory you get like 50 Lab MPs voting against. I think it's hard to imagine that many Tories going kamikaze, so if he's right it's just not going to happen.
I almost feel like Sylvia Hermon is the *only* candidate who could pull this off. Saving peace in NI is the only thing the whole opposition (including lab-leave) agree on.
Yes, the Labour payroll clearly won’t give confidence to anyone but Corbyn and there’s a few others who will abstain in the initial VONC or even vote for Boris, and then vote against a GONU in any subsequent vote.
When it comes in Sept, the VONC will be the mother of all virtue signalling exercises but it will be amusing to see how many Tory Remainers self immolate for no end result. Go on Phil, you know you want to.
So why are so many long standing members leaving in disgust?
It depends what you mean by "so many". Membership is about 15% off the peak of 3 years ago, partly as the £3ers have mostly drifted off, but it's still much larger than 10 years ago. I know quite a few members uneasy at the polls or who are anti-Corbyn, but only a handful who've actually left. Having Boris as an opponent helps!
Yes, the Labour payroll clearly won’t give confidence to anyone but Corbyn and there’s a few others who will abstain in the initial VONC or even vote for Boris, and then vote against a GONU in any subsequent vote.
When it comes in Sept, the VONC will be the mother of all virtue signalling exercises but it will be amusing to see how many Tory Remainers self immolate for no end result. Go on Phil, you know you want to.
The 50 number wasn't the payroll vote, it was regular MPs in leave-voting seats. It seems like a lot to me, but Nick Palmer knows his Labour MPs.
If Corbyn says no to everything except himself then I'm not sure it'll even get to the VONC stage.
Boris may well win a majority as@HYUFD has long predicted to some derision. However, I do not see him presiding over a change in the sort of people who run the media, civil service and judiciary. Does anyone? Therefore he is the Establishment. Just like Trump and Berlusconi. Why can't Conservatives just argue they are fighting for the status quo? Nowt wrong with that, it is a long standing and honourable political tradition. Because since 2008, the status quo in society has been unelectable and indefensible.
The status quo pre 2016 and pre Boris and Trump was pro EU, pro globalisation, pro immigration with few controls, they are certainly not the status quo.
The status quo in Italy pre Berlusconi was corporatist and secular, again he was not for the status quo
Boris heads a government containing (iirc!) six old Etonians. He's Establishment.
You say 'Labour' but it isn't Labour. Not as far as the current membership goes. Whatever they are, and I suspect it is mainly student millennial Grace Blakely marxists and clapped out 1970s Trots, they aren't the people who helped Wilson or Blair win several times.
Yes they are - mostly. The majority of members who I know in both my current and my former CLPs have been members (sometimes on and off) for 20+ years - typically they joined around age 30 and are now around age 50. Most are like me, pragmatic leftists who favour the most left-wing government (within reason) that can realistically be achieved. In 1997 there was so much to do to clean up the Tory shambles that Blair's agenda was plenty to be getting on with. By 2010, we felt we'd run through that agenda, and by 2015 we wanted something more radical.
The tug of war is *always* between people who think that the party if it moves too far left, and people who think it's only worth winning if you're attractively left-wing. Very few members have ever actually wanted to be Christian Democrat types - it's just that some felt it was necessary. In the present climate, perhaps not.
All my immediate family are Labour members. I am not. None of them are 70s Trots or millennial Marxists. They hold a range of views on Corbyn, and on the left/centre balance of the Party. Not always left = pro or centre = anti either.
Are you trying to tell us they are fully formed human beings with a normal range of characters?
They ran against the left liberal establishment that dominates the media, the civil service, the judiciary and academia and won
I used to be a civil servant. I must have missed the invites to the Left Liberal Civil Service Conference, with its presentations of Overthrowing Decent Right Wingers. They seemed to have mixed them up with the Government Statistical Service conferences, with its presentations on medical and social stats. Curse them!
The vast majority of civil servants were and remain Remainers
Better than flip-floppers like you and the poet...
Boris may well win a majority as@HYUFD has long predicted to some derision. However, I do not see him presiding over a change in the sort of people who run the media, civil service and judiciary. Does anyone? Therefore he is the Establishment. Just like Trump and Berlusconi. Why can't Conservatives just argue they are fighting for the status quo? Nowt wrong with that, it is a long standing and honourable political tradition. Because since 2008, the status quo in society has been unelectable and indefensible.
The status quo pre 2016 and pre Boris and Trump was pro EU, pro globalisation, pro immigration with few controls, they are certainly not the status quo.
The status quo in Italy pre Berlusconi was corporatist and secular, again he was not for the status quo
Populist politics has not come out of nowhere. It's a reaction to the bad (and self-serving) acts of moderate, centrist, rational politicians.
The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.
I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
The SNP's spin department will be taking notes as well.
The LDs may suffer in Scotland but not ib the RUK
The LibDems were almost wiped out in 2015, even south of Hadrian's Wall. Being seen as Tories in all but name did not help them then. And that's without considering this thread's header.
If the LibDems are trying to position themselves as a centre-left, staunchly anti-Brexit party then Swinson's initial knee-jerk anti-Corbynism really is not helping on either point, which is probably why she is now trying to contextualise it.
The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.
I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
The SNP's spin department will be taking notes as well.
The LDs may suffer in Scotland but not ib the RUK
The LibDems were almost wiped out in 2015, even south of Hadrian's Wall. Being seen as Tories in all but name did not help them then. And that's without considering this thread's header.
If the LibDems are trying to position themselves as a centre-left, staunchly anti-Brexit party then Swinson's initial knee-jerk anti-Corbynism really is not helping on either point, which is probably why she is now trying to contextualise it.
Good point. It made me wonder about voting for them.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
Good Morning everybody. Brighter this morning; here anyway.
IMHO many in the Labour Party are regarding the LibDems much as their fore-fathers did Ramsey MacDonald; they thought the LibDems would ally with them and consequently had a strong sense of betrayal when Nick Clegg demonstrated an ability to count and went into the 2010 Coalition.
Saj's autumn budget (no date yet) will be interesting, not least to see whether it contains serious measures or is just electioneering before a snap poll.
The pre-paywall teaser is reminiscences about his family which is either human interest fare or a cynical CCHQ attempt to neutralise Boris's race-baiting. You pays your money (to Rupert Murdoch's paywall in this case) and takes your choice.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
An accurate post. It's difficult not to be angry with Corbyn's opportunism. He's done bugger all to stop Brexit from the word go yet now wants to become the movements saviour. It looks pretty uunattractive even to Labour voters let alone the suggested coalition
Ah, undefined discussion subject.. that old chestnut.
It's a shame because discussion here is always so closely aligned to the thread header
Its like a flow chart.
Is thread header about Brexit: If so, closely aligned Is thread header not Brexit: If so, not aligned.
Barring talk about sport, wine, restaurants, travel, books and US politics of course.
We've not had a good chat about who has the most diamond studded air miles for a while.
Nor the best christmas movies and live bands.
So, flying to Dubai on moon-rock sprinkled air miles in mid December, eating a Hawaiian whilst watching Die Hard and listening to Radiohead on Shure earbuds would be the perfect PB smugfest?
Trains... must have trains...
I am on a train. There is a couple (two males) with a young baby who is making gurgling, squealing, and other prevocalisations. Go on, guess who they sat next to. One guess...
Should be embarking on my Fourth Scottish Expedition next week, based in Glasgow.
I have been to Glasgow. It's not as much fun as you think...
Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?
Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.
Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
Good Morning everybody. Brighter this morning; here anyway.
IMHO many in the Labour Party are regarding the LibDems much as their fore-fathers did Ramsey MacDonald; they thought the LibDems would ally with them and consequently had a strong sense of betrayal when Nick Clegg demonstrated an ability to count and went into the 2010 Coalition.
It wasn't 2010 Labour voters who deserted the LibDems, it was 2010 LibDem voters.
Ah, undefined discussion subject.. that old chestnut.
It's a shame because discussion here is always so closely aligned to the thread header
Its like a flow chart.
Is thread header about Brexit: If so, closely aligned Is thread header not Brexit: If so, not aligned.
Barring talk about sport, wine, restaurants, travel, books and US politics of course.
We've not had a good chat about who has the most diamond studded air miles for a while.
Nor the best christmas movies and live bands.
So, flying to Dubai on moon-rock sprinkled air miles in mid December, eating a Hawaiian whilst watching Die Hard and listening to Radiohead on Shure earbuds would be the perfect PB smugfest?
Trains... must have trains...
I am on a train. There is a couple (two males) with a young baby who is making gurgling, squealing, and other prevocalisations. Go on, guess who they sat next to. One guess...
Should be embarking on my Fourth Scottish Expedition next week, based in Glasgow.
I have been to Glasgow. It's not as much fun as you think...
You are obviously a boring barsteward then
I've only been to Glasgow a handful of times, and only once as a tourist, as part of a walking trip. I freely admit it is surprisingly wonderful in places, e.g. the walk by the River Kelvin, or the Clyde waterfront. True, they're only small parts of the city, but I wish I had similar places near to me.
It'll never beat Edinburgh for my affections though.
Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?
Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.
Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
And currently the Scottish polls are showing a significant swing from the SNP to the Lib Dems in Scotland.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
Good Morning everybody. Brighter this morning; here anyway.
IMHO many in the Labour Party are regarding the LibDems much as their fore-fathers did Ramsey MacDonald; they thought the LibDems would ally with them and consequently had a strong sense of betrayal when Nick Clegg demonstrated an ability to count and went into the 2010 Coalition.
It wasn't 2010 Labour voters who deserted the LibDems, it was 2010 LibDem voters.
And quite a lot of them ended up voting Conservative. It wasn't tactical unwind, whatever some posters suggest. Yeovil for example there was a clear transfer of voters to the Blues.
Yes, the Labour payroll clearly won’t give confidence to anyone but Corbyn and there’s a few others who will abstain in the initial VONC or even vote for Boris, and then vote against a GONU in any subsequent vote.
When it comes in Sept, the VONC will be the mother of all virtue signalling exercises but it will be amusing to see how many Tory Remainers self immolate for no end result. Go on Phil, you know you want to.
The 50 number wasn't the payroll vote, it was regular MPs in leave-voting seats. It seems like a lot to me, but Nick Palmer knows his Labour MPs.
If Corbyn says no to everything except himself then I'm not sure it'll even get to the VONC stage.
Corbyn has never tried to stop No Deal. Every slow and grudging action has had to be prised out of him. This lack of effective opposition is why we are in the shit state of Bozo and co.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
Good Morning everybody. Brighter this morning; here anyway.
IMHO many in the Labour Party are regarding the LibDems much as their fore-fathers did Ramsey MacDonald; they thought the LibDems would ally with them and consequently had a strong sense of betrayal when Nick Clegg demonstrated an ability to count and went into the 2010 Coalition.
It wasn't 2010 Labour voters who deserted the LibDems, it was 2010 LibDem voters.
Agree, but I wasn't thinking of voters so much as activists; those who might have to work with LibDems.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve. So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
‘My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it.’
Actually I think that hits the nail on the head.
A few weeks ago I thought the election of young Swinson quite refreshing, what I had seen she had promise. The last few days, OMG especially interview on channel 4 news. She can have a good point, what she is actually saying. But it’s the way she comes across, 10/10 full of herself, 0/10 charm. ‘If I don’t get my way I’ll squeem and squeem and squeem’ 😟
Its important to have lib dem leaders who come across as safe as a bolthole in a tight spot, not obvious candidates for PM but someone you could still imagine as a PM, Clegg, Ashdown, even Menzies Campbell and David Steel. Swinson is none of this. What she may be thinking is her being serious and earnest just comes across as angry even nasty; What she may be saying may actually be reasonable, but how she is conveying it just wants you to see her fail.
What has become of UK politics. 😕
If you find Swinson angry and nasty, she is just the tip of the SLD iceberg. Next exhibit: Willie Rennie.
Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
An accurate post. It's difficult not to be angry with Corbyn's opportunism. He's done bugger all to stop Brexit from the word go yet now wants to become the movements saviour. It looks pretty uunattractive even to Labour voters let alone the suggested coalition
Hard to avoid the conclusion Labour is yet again focused on its own positioning rather than the national interest.
My 100/1 tip not looking quite so "idiotic" or the actions of a "complete buffoon" (to quote Malcolm McBitter).
I got on Clarke at 130/1 and he's now in to 14/1, which doesn't of course mean it will happen or is even likely. That's the point about odds and betting. You look for value and expect to lose some. But when you win on great odds, it's sweet.
I always try to bet with my head not my heart which is why I thought Clarke was value. The reason is a basic one. I continue to hold the view that IF there's to be a temporary Government (which remains a big 'if') then the leader of it probably wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't think he's palatable enough to win a consensus of MPs over. It could still be him but on balance, I think not. Which leads to the next crucial point: any alternative to Corbyn will have to be one who isn't a threat to him in any way. Even Harriet Harman would be a threat because she will show Labour MPs what they're missing and undoubtedly do a better job than Corbyn - imagine, for instance, that she starts to pull Labour out of the polling doldrums!
My 100/1 tip not looking quite so "idiotic" or the actions of a "complete buffoon" (to quote Malcolm McBitter).
I got on Clarke at 130/1 and he's now in to 14/1, which doesn't of course mean it will happen or is even likely. That's the point about odds and betting. You look for value and expect to lose some. But when you win on great odds, it's sweet.
I always try to bet with my head not my heart which is why I thought Clarke was value. The reason is a basic one. I continue to hold the view that IF there's to be a temporary Government (which remains a big 'if') then the leader of it probably wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't think he's palatable enough to win a consensus of MPs over. It could still be him but on balance, I think not. Which leads to the next crucial point: any alternative to Corbyn will have to be one who isn't a threat to him in any way. Even Harriet Harman would be a threat because she will show Labour MPs what they're missing and undoubtedly do a better job than Corbyn - imagine, for instance, that she starts to pull Labour out of the polling doldrums!
So ...
Step forward Ken Clarke.
The trouble with Ken Clarke is finding a path to Number 10 that does not fracture the Conservative Party which, let us not forget, just three weeks ago elected Boris in a landslide.
Even accepting your reasoning, it is hard to see a Conservative. A Labour peer would meet your non-threatening criterion but I cannot think of one suitable. I don't know. 130/1 is great but I'd look to lay off at least your stake.
Yes, the Labour payroll clearly won’t give confidence to anyone but Corbyn and there’s a few others who will abstain in the initial VONC or even vote for Boris, and then vote against a GONU in any subsequent vote.
When it comes in Sept, the VONC will be the mother of all virtue signalling exercises but it will be amusing to see how many Tory Remainers self immolate for no end result. Go on Phil, you know you want to.
The 50 number wasn't the payroll vote, it was regular MPs in leave-voting seats. It seems like a lot to me, but Nick Palmer knows his Labour MPs.
If Corbyn says no to everything except himself then I'm not sure it'll even get to the VONC stage.
Corbyn has never tried to stop No Deal. Every slow and grudging action has had to be prised out of him. This lack of effective opposition is why we are in the shit state of Bozo and co.
He's looking a very diminished figure at the moment. I'm beginning to think the ony chance we have to avoid becoming the 51st state with Johnson and his clique in office as far as the eye can see is for Corbyn to be run down by the proverbial bus. And very soon.
My 100/1 tip not looking quite so "idiotic" or the actions of a "complete buffoon" (to quote Malcolm McBitter).
I got on Clarke at 130/1 and he's now in to 14/1, which doesn't of course mean it will happen or is even likely. That's the point about odds and betting. You look for value and expect to lose some. But when you win on great odds, it's sweet.
I always try to bet with my head not my heart which is why I thought Clarke was value. The reason is a basic one. I continue to hold the view that IF there's to be a temporary Government (which remains a big 'if') then the leader of it probably wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't think he's palatable enough to win a consensus of MPs over. It could still be him but on balance, I think not. Which leads to the next crucial point: any alternative to Corbyn will have to be one who isn't a threat to him in any way. Even Harriet Harman would be a threat because she will show Labour MPs what they're missing and undoubtedly do a better job than Corbyn - imagine, for instance, that she starts to pull Labour out of the polling doldrums!
So ...
Step forward Ken Clarke.
Wonder you get your head through the door. Clarke was punted on here weeks before you had even mentioned it. Down to nicking someones ideas and saying they are yours, how very Lib Dem.
Boris may well win a majority as@HYUFD has long predicted to some derision. However, I do not see him presiding over a change in the sort of people who run the media, civil service and judiciary. Does anyone? Therefore he is the Establishment. Just like Trump and Berlusconi. Why can't Conservatives just argue they are fighting for the status quo? Nowt wrong with that, it is a long standing and honourable political tradition. Because since 2008, the status quo in society has been unelectable and indefensible.
Ashfield gets more interesting - Zadrozny is back. Really, he had to - there will be no better chance. One for the constituency market if he gets long odds.
I would say he has a decent chance, especially in a snap election. The graph is straight from the Dim Lemming playbook.
Ah, undefined discussion subject.. that old chestnut.
It's a shame because discussion here is always so closely aligned to the thread header
Its like a flow chart.
Is thread header about Brexit: If so, closely aligned Is thread header not Brexit: If so, not aligned.
Barring talk about sport, wine, restaurants, travel, books and US politics of course.
We've not had a good chat about who has the most diamond studded air miles for a while.
Nor the best christmas movies and live bands.
So, flying to Dubai on moon-rock sprinkled air miles in mid December, eating a Hawaiian whilst watching Die Hard and listening to Radiohead on Shure earbuds would be the perfect PB smugfest?
Trains... must have trains...
I am on a train. There is a couple (two males) with a young baby who is making gurgling, squealing, and other prevocalisations. Go on, guess who they sat next to. One guess...
Should be embarking on my Fourth Scottish Expedition next week, based in Glasgow.
I have been to Glasgow. It's not as much fun as you think...
You are obviously a boring barsteward then
I've only been to Glasgow a handful of times, and only once as a tourist, as part of a walking trip. I freely admit it is surprisingly wonderful in places, e.g. the walk by the River Kelvin, or the Clyde waterfront. True, they're only small parts of the city, but I wish I had similar places near to me.
It'll never beat Edinburgh for my affections though.
Lot of lovely buildings in the centre as well, beautiful museums all free and the shopping is supposed to be second only to London. I am not there often nowadays but it is a real nice city.
My 100/1 tip not looking quite so "idiotic" or the actions of a "complete buffoon" (to quote Malcolm McBitter).
I got on Clarke at 130/1 and he's now in to 14/1, which doesn't of course mean it will happen or is even likely. That's the point about odds and betting. You look for value and expect to lose some. But when you win on great odds, it's sweet.
I always try to bet with my head not my heart which is why I thought Clarke was value. The reason is a basic one. I continue to hold the view that IF there's to be a temporary Government (which remains a big 'if') then the leader of it probably wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't think he's palatable enough to win a consensus of MPs over. It could still be him but on balance, I think not. Which leads to the next crucial point: any alternative to Corbyn will have to be one who isn't a threat to him in any way. Even Harriet Harman would be a threat because she will show Labour MPs what they're missing and undoubtedly do a better job than Corbyn - imagine, for instance, that she starts to pull Labour out of the polling doldrums!
So ...
Step forward Ken Clarke.
The trouble with Ken Clarke is finding a path to Number 10 that does not fracture the Conservative Party which, let us not forget, just three weeks ago elected Boris in a landslide.
Ah but not with his MPs he didn't. It's they who will have the say in the House of Commons, not the membership.
The Conservative party is already fractured. By lurching to the hard right, Johnson has disenfranchised the 1/3rd of Tory members who voted to Remain in the EU. That fault-line has run through the Conservative party for decades but the events of the past 3 years have rendered it a schism waiting to happen.
p.s. but thanks about the value of the bet. I'm not ready to cash out yet because I think the odds are better than 14/1.
Ashfield gets more interesting - Zadrozny is back. Really, he had to - there will be no better chance. One for the constituency market if he gets long odds.
I would say he has a decent chance, especially in a snap election. The graph is straight from the Dim Lemming playbook.
Comments
They hold a range of views on Corbyn, and on the left/centre balance of the Party. Not always left = pro or centre = anti either.
Edit to add: in fact, the media in Italy is owned by Berlusconi and Murdoch, so it's hard to think of somewhere where the media is less dominated by the left.
Just like Trump and Berlusconi.
Why can't Conservatives just argue they are fighting for the status quo? Nowt wrong with that, it is a long standing and honourable political tradition.
Because since 2008, the status quo in society has been unelectable and indefensible.
Maybe he can get some mileage out of telling them that George W. Bush was Tony Blair's poodle.
The status quo in Italy pre Berlusconi was corporatist and secular, again he was not for the status quo
Metro apologises
https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/1162460121395597312
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/16/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn/
Those enormously influential ones...
We'd all agree i is exceptionally unimportant, yes? Do you know what it's circulation is? About 250,000. The biggest selling newspaper in Italy sells fewer copies than i.
Like the Inter Milan left wing played a blinder against Lazio.
It might make some feel warm and cuddly to imagine Ken Clarke walking into number 10 to a brass band playing Karma Police (mentioning no names!). But to get there, perhaps a fifth to a quarter of the parliamentary Tory party would need to openly defy the 66% of members that just elected Boris. Short term impact: Brexit deferred, warm and fuzzy feeling achieved. Medium term impact: The Brexit Party becomes the party of the right and in time quite possibly the party of government.
The same goes for those on the Brexit side frankly (that’d be me 😱). NO DEAL ON 31 OCT YEAH BABY!! WE’RE OUT! Then what? Unilateral zero tariffs forever? Perhaps not. What then?
Grieve and the gang are basically Robb Stark. Win all the battles but lose the war.
I know Swinson has her fans here but she looks all over the place to me.
Judgement pending on Johnson/Cummings, perhaps they do have a plan after all. But for now Jezza is one of the few that seems to have the power of strategic thought. I might find his politics boneheaded and a lot else rather distasteful but he’s played a total blinder for 4 years now. Listening to Nick, it’s quite clear what Corbyn has achieved is to carve out a strong socialist presence in the UK debate (that will soon be unconstrained by the ECJ) and this socialist platform will only get stronger when he retires.
I almost feel like Sylvia Hermon is the *only* candidate who could pull this off. Saving peace in NI is the only thing the whole opposition (including lab-leave) agree on.
When it comes in Sept, the VONC will be the mother of all virtue signalling exercises but it will be amusing to see how many Tory Remainers self immolate for no end result. Go on Phil, you know you want to.
If Corbyn says no to everything except himself then I'm not sure it'll even get to the VONC stage.
If the LibDems are trying to position themselves as a centre-left, staunchly anti-Brexit party then Swinson's initial knee-jerk anti-Corbynism really is not helping on either point, which is probably why she is now trying to contextualise it.
Swinson didn’t think through the tone of her initial speech fully, and was wrong to give the impression she wouldn’t meet Corbyn for talks. But she rowed back on this extremely quickly, as was spotted by very many PB’ers. Her current position is reasonable.
The fact that so many in Labour continue to lay into the LibDems over the original position suggests that their eyes aren’t fixed on the real enemy and threat to our country. Labour’s position that they will only back Corbyn is fine for now, on a MRD basis, but needs to be a bluff. A caretaker PM should clearly be just that - not a candidate for the job long-term - the clue is in the name.
IMHO many in the Labour Party are regarding the LibDems much as their fore-fathers did Ramsey MacDonald; they thought the LibDems would ally with them and consequently had a strong sense of betrayal when Nick Clegg demonstrated an ability to count and went into the 2010 Coalition.
Times subscribers can read this:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-interview-i-m-a-low-tax-guy-says-chancellor-as-he-reveals-his-priorities-gdt9b36j5
The pre-paywall teaser is reminiscences about his family which is either human interest fare or a cynical CCHQ attempt to neutralise Boris's race-baiting. You pays your money (to Rupert Murdoch's paywall in this case) and takes your choice.
It'll never beat Edinburgh for my affections though.
I like undefined discussion subjects.
I have reported your post for being off topic.
I got on Clarke at 130/1 and he's now in to 14/1, which doesn't of course mean it will happen or is even likely. That's the point about odds and betting. You look for value and expect to lose some. But when you win on great odds, it's sweet.
I always try to bet with my head not my heart which is why I thought Clarke was value. The reason is a basic one. I continue to hold the view that IF there's to be a temporary Government (which remains a big 'if') then the leader of it probably wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't think he's palatable enough to win a consensus of MPs over. It could still be him but on balance, I think not. Which leads to the next crucial point: any alternative to Corbyn will have to be one who isn't a threat to him in any way. Even Harriet Harman would be a threat because she will show Labour MPs what they're missing and undoubtedly do a better job than Corbyn - imagine, for instance, that she starts to pull Labour out of the polling doldrums!
So ...
Step forward Ken Clarke.
Even accepting your reasoning, it is hard to see a Conservative. A Labour peer would meet your non-threatening criterion but I cannot think of one suitable. I don't know. 130/1 is great but I'd look to lay off at least your stake.
I would say he has a decent chance, especially in a snap election. The graph is straight from the Dim Lemming playbook.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1162609754918785025
I have yet to hear Zadrozny lay out a position on Brexit, but I could have missed it. He has normally kept stumm and thrown rocks at Gloria.
I think Gloria has gone now, even for an Oct / Nov election.
The Conservative party is already fractured. By lurching to the hard right, Johnson has disenfranchised the 1/3rd of Tory members who voted to Remain in the EU. That fault-line has run through the Conservative party for decades but the events of the past 3 years have rendered it a schism waiting to happen.
p.s. but thanks about the value of the bet. I'm not ready to cash out yet because I think the odds are better than 14/1.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCSvNZWpXaM