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  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    I'm not sure Ken Clarke wasn't a main contributor to Labour's 1997 landslide after he'd moved from department to department alienating Conservative supporters like the police and doctors. You might still be right though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490

    If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    But sadly it has yet to spread to the rest of his body.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
  • Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    Swinson is a sleeper agent for the Brexiteers?
  • If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    But sadly it has yet to spread to the rest of his body.
    Let us have a look at Clarke's CV.

    Chairman of CUCA, barrister, QC, nearly 30 years on the front bench/government, inter alia, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary, Health Secretary, Education Secretary, and generally Thatcher's go to man when there was a problem needing sorting.

    There's also his successful business career.

    Just imagine what he could have achieved if his talent and integrity had spread to the rest of his body.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    And currently the Scottish polls are showing a significant swing from the SNP to the Lib Dems in Scotland.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Fenman said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/16/dismissing-corbyn-lib-dem-true-colours-jo-swinson-labour

    "When Jeremy Corbyn wrote a letter putting himself forward as a transitional prime minister purely to block no deal, extend article 50 and call an election, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson could have welcomed the move as constructive, as the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru have done, with several Tory backbenchers prepared to talk, too. Instead, Swinson revealed that while the Lib Dems had been willing to prop David Cameron up for five years, implementing massive cuts and trebling tuition fees, she’s not prepared to countenance supporting Corbyn for five weeks solely to stop a disorderly exit from the EU.

    The key is the word solely
    Exactly. She would countenance a hard Brexit but not a Corbyn led 5 week government whose remit will have agreed beforehand.

    There is another practical problem. About 50 Labour MPs will not countenance any other interim PM.

    So Johnson wins.
    And when the five weeks are up...?
    He can be VoNCed too !
    In favour of who?
    No-one. We have a GE and the voters decide if they want to keep Jezza, switch to Bozo's replacement (Rory?) or go full-on Farage.
    Why would Johnson be replaced? Even if it panned out as planned the election would probably lead to a Conservative majority, and we just Brexit in six month’s instead. Or maybe we’d have a hung Parliament where Corbyn gets to stay in power by default because the Commons can’t produce the numbers to remove him. So much for a “caretaker” Government.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Fenman said:

    The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.

    I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
    Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
    I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Fenman said:

    The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.

    I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
    Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
    I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
    This is PB. Please point to polling to support your contention.

    I have tactically voted LAB at the last two elections in my tight LAB/CON marginal. I won't next time becaise of the stench of antisemitism that comes from your leader. He's beyond the pale.
    We have yet to see polling since this story broke. I await it with interest - but I have encountered three people - none of whom are well disposed towards Corbyn - who are not impressed by Swinson's response to his overtures. I really don't think it is difficult to expect this affair to give legs to Labour's 'Tories' Little Helpers' message.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve.
    So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    alex. said:

    Why would Johnson be replaced?

    The only reason he has the job right now is Brexiteers think he is a "winner"

    Winners don't get VoNCed...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    Swinson's majority in East Dunbartonshire is almost exactly the same as Johnson's majority in Uxbridge. Please do a bit of basic research before making assertions. Wikipedia is quite a good source
  • If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    But sadly it has yet to spread to the rest of his body.
    Let us have a look at Clarke's CV.

    Chairman of CUCA, barrister, QC, nearly 30 years on the front bench/government, inter alia, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary, Health Secretary, Education Secretary, and generally Thatcher's go to man when there was a problem needing sorting.

    There's also his successful business career.
    [Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "British American Tobacco".]
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited August 2019

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    Gwynfor Evans lost Carmathen in 1979. Peter Robinson lost his Belfast seat in 2010. Archibald Sinclair lost Caithness & Sutherland in 1945. Jeremy Thorpe very nearly lost North Devon in 1970. Ted Heath only narrowly held Bexley in 1966 too.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    But sadly it has yet to spread to the rest of his body.
    Let us have a look at Clarke's CV.

    Chairman of CUCA, barrister, QC, nearly 30 years on the front bench/government, inter alia, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary, Health Secretary, Education Secretary, and generally Thatcher's go to man when there was a problem needing sorting.

    There's also his successful business career.
    [Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "British American Tobacco".]
    With a cough like that I suggest you cut out the fags!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    Scott_P said:

    alex. said:

    Why would Johnson be replaced?

    The only reason he has the job right now is Brexiteers think he is a "winner"

    Winners don't get VoNCed...
    They do if they have engineered the VoNC in order to win a landslide GE on the sly, because they are a Machiavellian genius.
  • Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    Swinson's majority in East Dunbartonshire is almost exactly the same as Johnson's majority in Uxbridge. Please do a bit of basic research before making assertions. Wikipedia is quite a good source
    Wiki says:

    Swinson majority 5,339

    Johnson majority 5,034
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:

    alex. said:

    Why would Johnson be replaced?

    The only reason he has the job right now is Brexiteers think he is a "winner"

    Winners don't get VoNCed...
    An election winner. An election where the LibDems have put Corbyn in power and delayed Brexit is about his dream General Election scenario. He wouldn’t even have to take the country through no deal after it! Or not immediately.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    Swinson's majority in East Dunbartonshire is almost exactly the same as Johnson's majority in Uxbridge. Please do a bit of basic research before making assertions. Wikipedia is quite a good source
    I didn't say Johnson was not in trouble. Particularly, in London. The difference is he is the PM just as Gordon Brown was in 2010.
  • If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    But sadly it has yet to spread to the rest of his body.
    Let us have a look at Clarke's CV.

    Chairman of CUCA, barrister, QC, nearly 30 years on the front bench/government, inter alia, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary, Health Secretary, Education Secretary, and generally Thatcher's go to man when there was a problem needing sorting.

    There's also his successful business career.
    [Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "British American Tobacco".]
    With a cough like that I suggest you cut out the fags!
    I'm not gay, Sandy :lol:
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    And currently the Scottish polls are showing a significant swing from the SNP to the Lib Dems in Scotland.
    I am not aware of any recent Scotland Voting Intention polls. Crossbreaks are unreliable and very variable - some show the LDs doing OK whist others have their vote share in single figures.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Fenman said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/16/dismissing-corbyn-lib-dem-true-colours-jo-swinson-labour

    "When Jeremy Corbyn wrote a letter putting himself forward as a transitional prime minister purely to block no deal, extend article 50 and call an election, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson could have welcomed the move as constructive, as the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru have done, with several Tory backbenchers prepared to talk, too. Instead, Swinson revealed that while the Lib Dems had been willing to prop David Cameron up for five years, implementing massive cuts and trebling tuition fees, she’s not prepared to countenance supporting Corbyn for five weeks solely to stop a disorderly exit from the EU.

    The key is the word solely
    Exactly. She would countenance a hard Brexit but not a Corbyn led 5 week government whose remit will have agreed beforehand.

    There is another practical problem. About 50 Labour MPs will not countenance any other interim PM.

    So Johnson wins.
    And when the five weeks are up...?
    He can be VoNCed too !
    In favour of who?
    No-one. We have a GE and the voters decide if they want to keep Jezza, switch to Bozo's replacement (Rory?) or go full-on Farage.
    Why would Johnson be replaced? Even if it panned out as planned the election would probably lead to a Conservative majority, and we just Brexit in six month’s instead. Or maybe we’d have a hung Parliament where Corbyn gets to stay in power by default because the Commons can’t produce the numbers to remove him. So much for a “caretaker” Government.
    I'm assuming that Bozo would resign as Tory leader if he lost a VONC and Jezza was installed as PM. When you say 'Do or Die' and you don't 'Do' there is only one alternative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Unless you get into negative equity!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    justin124 said:

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    And currently the Scottish polls are showing a significant swing from the SNP to the Lib Dems in Scotland.
    I am not aware of any recent Scotland Voting Intention polls. Crossbreaks are unreliable and very variable - some show the LDs doing OK whist others have their vote share in single figures.
    There was the Ashcroft Scottish poll a week or so ago
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Fenman said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/16/dismissing-corbyn-lib-dem-true-colours-jo-swinson-labour

    "When Jeremy Corbyn wrote a letter putting himself forward as a transitional prime minister purely to block no deal, extend article 50 and call an election, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson could have welcomed the move as constructive, as the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru have done, with several Tory backbenchers prepared to talk, too. Instead, Swinson revealed that while the Lib Dems had been willing to prop David Cameron up for five years, implementing massive cuts and trebling tuition fees, she’s not prepared to countenance supporting Corbyn for five weeks solely to stop a disorderly exit from the EU.

    The key is the word solely
    Exactly. She would countenance a hard Brexit but not a Corbyn led 5 week government whose remit will have agreed beforehand.

    There is another practical problem. About 50 Labour MPs will not countenance any other interim PM.

    So Johnson wins.
    And when the five weeks are up...?
    He can be VoNCed too !
    In favour of who?
    No-one. We have a GE and the voters decide if they want to keep Jezza, switch to Bozo's replacement (Rory?) or go full-on Farage.
    Why would Johnson be replaced? Even if it panned out as planned the election would probably lead to a Conservative majority, and we just Brexit in six month’s instead. Or maybe we’d have a hung Parliament where Corbyn gets to stay in power by default because the Commons can’t produce the numbers to remove him. So much for a “caretaker” Government.
    I'm assuming that Bozo would resign as Tory leader if he lost a VONC and Jezza was installed as PM. When you say 'Do or Die' and you don't 'Do' there is only one alternative.
    You really believe that? Where has there been any indication that that would happen? He has no majority and can’t control what Parliament does.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    And currently the Scottish polls are showing a significant swing from the SNP to the Lib Dems in Scotland.
    I am not aware of any recent Scotland Voting Intention polls. Crossbreaks are unreliable and very variable - some show the LDs doing OK whist others have their vote share in single figures.
    There was the Ashcroft Scottish poll a week or so ago
    I was not aware that included Voting Intention data. Happy to look at it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Fenman said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/16/dismissing-corbyn-lib-dem-true-colours-jo-swinson-labour

    "When Jeremy Corbyn wrote a letter putting himself forward as a transitional prime minister purely to block no deal, extend article 50 and call an election, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson could have welcomed the move as constructive, as the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru have done, with several Tory backbenchers prepared to talk, too. Instead, Swinson revealed that while the Lib Dems had been willing to prop David Cameron up for five years, implementing massive cuts and trebling tuition fees, she’s not prepared to countenance supporting Corbyn for five weeks solely to stop a disorderly exit from the EU.

    The key is the word solely
    Exactly. She would countenance a hard Brexit but not a Corbyn led 5 week government whose remit will have agreed beforehand.

    There is another practical problem. About 50 Labour MPs will not countenance any other interim PM.

    So Johnson wins.
    And when the five weeks are up...?
    He can be VoNCed too !
    In favour of who?
    No-one. We have a GE and the voters decide if they want to keep Jezza, switch to Bozo's replacement (Rory?) or go full-on Farage.
    Why would Johnson be replaced? Even if it panned out as planned the election would probably lead to a Conservative majority, and we just Brexit in six month’s instead. Or maybe we’d have a hung Parliament where Corbyn gets to stay in power by default because the Commons can’t produce the numbers to remove him. So much for a “caretaker” Government.
    I'm assuming that Bozo would resign as Tory leader if he lost a VONC and Jezza was installed as PM. When you say 'Do or Die' and you don't 'Do' there is only one alternative.
    That code certainly doesn't apply to Mr Johnson.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    On topic, theres a 97.4% likelihood that O'Mara puts out a "clarification" when the House resumes sitting, that because of the imminent general election, he will defer his decision to retire "to spare the voters an unneccessary by-election"......
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Jo Swinson’s fate lies in the hands of the thousands of Tories in her constituency. If they can stomach her “Bollocks to Brexit” campaign, some might still lend her a tactical vote. Others won’t.

    Nobody can tell from national polls.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Fenman said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/16/dismissing-corbyn-lib-dem-true-colours-jo-swinson-labour

    "When Jeremy Corbyn wrote a letter putting himself forward as a transitional prime minister purely to block no deal, extend article 50 and call an election, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson could have welcomed the move as constructive, as the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru have done, with several Tory backbenchers prepared to talk, too. Instead, Swinson revealed that while the Lib Dems had been willing to prop David Cameron up for five years, implementing massive cuts and trebling tuition fees, she’s not prepared to countenance supporting Corbyn for five weeks solely to stop a disorderly exit from the EU.

    The key is the word solely
    Exactly. She would countenance a hard Brexit but not a Corbyn led 5 week government whose remit will have agreed beforehand.

    There is another practical problem. About 50 Labour MPs will not countenance any other interim PM.

    So Johnson wins.
    And when the five weeks are up...?
    He can be VoNCed too !
    In favour of who?
    No-one. We have a GE and the voters decide if they want to keep Jezza, switch to Bozo's replacement (Rory?) or go full-on Farage.
    Why would Johnson be replaced? Even if it panned out as planned the election would probably lead to a Conservative majority, and we just Brexit in six month’s instead. Or maybe we’d have a hung Parliament where Corbyn gets to stay in power by default because the Commons can’t produce the numbers to remove him. So much for a “caretaker” Government.
    I'm assuming that Bozo would resign as Tory leader if he lost a VONC and Jezza was installed as PM. When you say 'Do or Die' and you don't 'Do' there is only one alternative.
    What he actually said was Do or Dye. If unsuccessful with Brexit, he will move on from making model buses to printing batik.....

    ...whilst remaining as PM.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    On topic, theres a 97.4% likelihood that O'Mara puts out a "clarification" when the House resumes sitting, that because of the imminent general election, he will defer his decision to retire "to spare the voters an unneccessary by-election"......

    I'm sure that's probably along the right Lines
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Whatever happened to
    Leon Trotsky?
    He got an ice pick
    That made his ears burn
    Whatever happened to
    Dear old Lenin?
    The great O'Mara
    And Sancho Panza?
    Whatever happened to the heroes?
    Whatever happened to the heroes?
    Whatever happened to
    All of the heroes?
    All the Shakespearoes?
    They watched their Rome burn
    Whatever happened to the heroes?
    Whatever happened to the heroes?
    No more heroes any more
    No more heroes any more
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Jo Swinson’s fate lies in the hands of the thousands of Tories in her constituency. If they can stomach her “Bollocks to Brexit” campaign, some might still lend her a tactical vote. Others won’t.

    Nobody can tell from national polls.

    They'll do anything to keep the SNP out
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Fenman said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/16/dismissing-corbyn-lib-dem-true-colours-jo-swinson-labour

    "When Jeremy Corbyn wrote a letter putting himself forward as a transitional prime minister purely to block no deal, extend article 50 and call an election, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson could have welcomed the move as constructive, as the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru have done, with several Tory backbenchers prepared to talk, too. Instead, Swinson revealed that while the Lib Dems had been willing to prop David Cameron up for five years, implementing massive cuts and trebling tuition fees, she’s not prepared to countenance supporting Corbyn for five weeks solely to stop a disorderly exit from the EU.

    The key is the word solely
    Exactly. She would countenance a hard Brexit but not a Corbyn led 5 week government whose remit will have agreed beforehand.

    There is another practical problem. About 50 Labour MPs will not countenance any other interim PM.

    So Johnson wins.
    And when the five weeks are up...?
    He can be VoNCed too !
    In favour of who?
    No-one. We have a GE and the voters decide if they want to keep Jezza, switch to Bozo's replacement (Rory?) or go full-on Farage.
    Why would Johnson be replaced? Even if it panned out as planned the election would probably lead to a Conservative majority, and we just Brexit in six month’s instead. Or maybe we’d have a hung Parliament where Corbyn gets to stay in power by default because the Commons can’t produce the numbers to remove him. So much for a “caretaker” Government.
    I'm assuming that Bozo would resign as Tory leader if he lost a VONC and Jezza was installed as PM. When you say 'Do or Die' and you don't 'Do' there is only one alternative.
    Would be irony upon irony if, having elected Boris cause he could win an election, he ended up never fighting one...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve.
    So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
    They will if Corbyn asks them to. If Corbyn doesn't ask them, then there aren't the numbers there anyway.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    Are you behind the KC Twitter parody account? It's brilliant btw
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Next EU Commission President?

    Manfred Weber 5/6
    Margrethe Vestager 6/1
    Michel Barnier 8/1
    Frans Timmermans 9/1
    Pierre Moscovici 20/1
    Enda Kenny 25/1

    (PP)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    And has in addition the two advantages that he has no desire to be PM beyond this moment, and is not pushing any particular solution for avoiding No Deal - being prepared to consider anything which could achieve a majority consensus in Parliament.

    Setting aside the intangibles of ‘trust’ or ‘integrity’, neither of those two things are true of Jeremy Corbyn.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Jo Swinson’s fate lies in the hands of the thousands of Tories in her constituency. If they can stomach her “Bollocks to Brexit” campaign, some might still lend her a tactical vote. Others won’t.

    Nobody can tell from national polls.

    They'll do anything to keep the SNP out
    That’s how some voters behave Mike: against a candidate.

    Others prefer to vote for the candidate closest to their own views: for a candidate.

    Swinson will undeniably attract *some* Tories by being anti-independence. However, she will repel *some* Tories by being anti-Brexit.

    Neither you nor I can tell how those proportions will play out in East Dunbartonshire by looking at national polls (assuming we had a few to look at).

    The local Tories are key. Swinson’s fate lies entirely in their hands. Hence her backing off on going for Johnson’s throat.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited August 2019
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Is there a guarantee that Swinson can herself win in a GE against a revived SNP ?

    Point to me a main party leader who has lost their seat at a general election. it doesn't happen. And in terms of revival the LDs have revived much more than the SNP in Scotland and I'd expect gains there.

    Go look at how Gordon Brown did in Scotland at GE2010 - this was totally against the national trend.
    I am also not aware of any party leader who had such a small majority. The next GE in Scotland will not just be about Brexit - it will also be about independence.
    And currently the Scottish polls are showing a significant swing from the SNP to the Lib Dems in Scotland.
    I am not aware of any recent Scotland Voting Intention polls. Crossbreaks are unreliable and very variable - some show the LDs doing OK whist others have their vote share in single figures.
    There was the Ashcroft Scottish poll a week or so ago
    I was not aware that included Voting Intention data. Happy to look at it.
    News to me too. Happy to be proved wrong.

    The latest Scottish VI polls I can find from each pollster are:
    Panelbase 20 June 2019
    YouGov 26 April 2019
    Survation 23 April 2019
    Ipsos Mori 11 March 2018

    Not much to go on.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    Jo Swinson’s fate lies in the hands of the thousands of Tories in her constituency. If they can stomach her “Bollocks to Brexit” campaign, some might still lend her a tactical vote. Others won’t.

    Nobody can tell from national polls.

    They'll do anything to keep the SNP out
    Will you be writing again to the constituents of East Dunbartonshire to encourage them in this?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    What's happened to Philip Thompson. Has he gone in for a service?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Not sure. I don't feel strongly but the economic effect is already on the seller.

    At the moment SDLT compliance is a requirement for Land Registration, which provides a reasonable means of ensuring that people pay up. I can't see how that would work if the Seller paid SDLT.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve.
    So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
    ‘My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it.’

    Actually I think that hits the nail on the head.

    A few weeks ago I thought the election of young Swinson quite refreshing, what I had seen she had promise. The last few days, OMG especially interview on channel 4 news. She can have a good point, what she is actually saying. But it’s the way she comes across, 10/10 full of herself, 0/10 charm. ‘If I don’t get my way I’ll squeem and squeem and squeem’ 😟

    Its important to have lib dem leaders who come across as safe as a bolthole in a tight spot, not obvious candidates for PM but someone you could still imagine as a PM, Clegg, Ashdown, even Menzies Campbell and David Steel. Swinson is none of this. What she may be thinking is her being serious and earnest just comes across as angry even nasty; What she may be saying may actually be reasonable, but how she is conveying it just wants you to see her fail.

    What has become of UK politics. 😕
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Fenman said:

    The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.

    I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
    Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
    I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
    I can't believe Corbynistas are still pushing this nonsense. It's the most disingenuous load of claptrap since the last load to come out of the lying mouths of shameless propagandists like Jones. Corbyn even with the Lib Dems isn't close to having the numbers.

    If Labour wanted to stop no deal it could do so by sidelining the vile Corbyn, but no, using the crisis to foist a horrible crackpot on us prime minister is more important than that.

    I expect the focus to change once Swinson's proved totally right and Labour fails to come up with the numbers. They might not even be able to win the initial VONC if it's clear it's going to lead to Corbyn as PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019

    If Ken Clarke became Prime Minister I would be so happy.

    The man has more talent and integrity in his little toe than the entire cabinet and shadow cabinet combined.

    But sadly it has yet to spread to the rest of his body.
    Let us have a look at Clarke's CV.

    Chairman of CUCA, barrister, QC, nearly 30 years on the front bench/government, inter alia, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary, Health Secretary, Education Secretary, and generally Thatcher's go to man when there was a problem needing sorting.

    There's also his successful business career.

    Just imagine what he could have achieved if his talent and integrity had spread to the rest of his body.
    Yes, he is the perfect establishment tool to block Brexit and Farage would not believe his luck if he got Clarke as Tory PM of a Government of Remainers backed by Labour, the LDs, the SNP and anti No Deal Tory MPs led by Philip Hammond to throw out the biggest vote in postwar British history
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Roger said:

    What's happened to Philip Thompson. Has he gone in for a service?

    I came on to see how HY is spinning the Indy / BMG poll. Has he given up? ☹️
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Been trialed for weeks. Not sure why this is news. But it is August.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Zephyr said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve.
    So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
    ‘My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it.’

    Actually I think that hits the nail on the head.

    A few weeks ago I thought the election of young Swinson quite refreshing, what I had seen she had promise. The last few days, OMG especially interview on channel 4 news. She can have a good point, what she is actually saying. But it’s the way she comes across, 10/10 full of herself, 0/10 charm. ‘If I don’t get my way I’ll squeem and squeem and squeem’ 😟

    Its important to have lib dem leaders who come across as safe as a bolthole in a tight spot, not obvious candidates for PM but someone you could still imagine as a PM, Clegg, Ashdown, even Menzies Campbell and David Steel. Swinson is none of this. What she may be thinking is her being serious and earnest just comes across as angry even nasty; What she may be saying may actually be reasonable, but how she is conveying it just wants you to see her fail.

    What has become of UK politics. 😕
    If you find Swinson angry and nasty, she is just the tip of the SLD iceberg. Next exhibit: Willie Rennie.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    MJW said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Fenman said:

    The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.

    I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
    Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
    I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
    I can't believe Corbynistas are still pushing this nonsense. It's the most disingenuous load of claptrap since the last load to come out of the lying mouths of shameless propagandists like Jones. Corbyn even with the Lib Dems isn't close to having the numbers.

    If Labour wanted to stop no deal it could do so by sidelining the vile Corbyn, but no, using the crisis to foist a horrible crackpot on us prime minister is more important than that.

    I expect the focus to change once Swinson's proved totally right and Labour fails to come up with the numbers. They might not even be able to win the initial VONC if it's clear it's going to lead to Corbyn as PM.
    If it wasn't so consequential, this would really be fun.
  • Zephyr said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve.
    So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
    ‘My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it.’

    Actually I think that hits the nail on the head.

    A few weeks ago I thought the election of young Swinson quite refreshing, what I had seen she had promise. The last few days, OMG especially interview on channel 4 news. She can have a good point, what she is actually saying. But it’s the way she comes across, 10/10 full of herself, 0/10 charm. ‘If I don’t get my way I’ll squeem and squeem and squeem’ 😟

    Its important to have lib dem leaders who come across as safe as a bolthole in a tight spot, not obvious candidates for PM but someone you could still imagine as a PM, Clegg, Ashdown, even Menzies Campbell and David Steel. Swinson is none of this. What she may be thinking is her being serious and earnest just comes across as angry even nasty; What she may be saying may actually be reasonable, but how she is conveying it just wants you to see her fail.

    What has become of UK politics. 😕
    Jo Swinson = Vicky Pollard?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hmm. So Boris is now reaching out to Angela and Emmanuel. Perhaps the parliamentary campaign to stop No Deal - i.e the fact that it looks doomed - has focused his mind.

    Extension and fresh talks. That's the only way out for the Great Man.
    He will try and renegotiate the backstop but there won't be a further extension as he knows that means the Brexit Party overtake the Tories again and push the Tories into third, he has to deliver Brexit on October 31st Deal or No Deal as he has promised
    Maybe he thinks (knows) that no deal Brexit will be a catastrophe for the Country and doesn’t want that to be his defining legacy. As a remainer, surely you can empathise with that? And he really was bluffing all along. Just a thought.
    If Boris does not deliver Brexit his defining legacy will be to be the Kim Campbell of UK politics and the last ever Tory PM and he knows that
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited August 2019
    .g
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    If Ken was more Machiavellian than he is, he could become PM under a GNU deal and then, swept along by the widespread demonstrations by the people in the streets, announce a GE with him and his new Moderates Party seriously in the running.

    Bonkers?

    Yes. But so has the last 3 years been.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Zephyr said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve.
    So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
    ‘My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it.’

    Actually I think that hits the nail on the head.

    A few weeks ago I thought the election of young Swinson quite refreshing, what I had seen she had promise. The last few days, OMG especially interview on channel 4 news. She can have a good point, what she is actually saying. But it’s the way she comes across, 10/10 full of herself, 0/10 charm. ‘If I don’t get my way I’ll squeem and squeem and squeem’ 😟

    Its important to have lib dem leaders who come across as safe as a bolthole in a tight spot, not obvious candidates for PM but someone you could still imagine as a PM, Clegg, Ashdown, even Menzies Campbell and David Steel. Swinson is none of this. What she may be thinking is her being serious and earnest just comes across as angry even nasty; What she may be saying may actually be reasonable, but how she is conveying it just wants you to see her fail.

    What has become of UK politics. 😕
    Jo Swinson = Vicky Pollard?
    Actually it was Violet Elizabeth who "Scweamed and scweamed"...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    How crap was Clegg to lose it to the numpty in the first place? Still a million a year and a nice house for being Zuckerberg's fluffer must seem like a better gig.

    If you are going to sell your soul, at least get a decent price.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it. Using the word "nonsense" was not smart. No one else said anything close to that. Not even the the newest LD , Wollaston. Not even Tories like Grieve.
    So if Corbyn cannot bring a majority , who can ? [ I have never voted for Corbyn in any election, by the way ! ]. Do you think people like Rebecca Long Name, Ian Lavery etc. will vote for anyone else ?
    ‘My particular problem with Swinson's response was the manner she said it.’

    Actually I think that hits the nail on the head.

    A few weeks ago I thought the election of young Swinson quite refreshing, what I had seen she had promise. The last few days, OMG especially interview on channel 4 news. She can have a good point, what she is actually saying. But it’s the way she comes across, 10/10 full of herself, 0/10 charm. ‘If I don’t get my way I’ll squeem and squeem and squeem’ 😟

    Its important to have lib dem leaders who come across as safe as a bolthole in a tight spot, not obvious candidates for PM but someone you could still imagine as a PM, Clegg, Ashdown, even Menzies Campbell and David Steel. Swinson is none of this. What she may be thinking is her being serious and earnest just comes across as angry even nasty; What she may be saying may actually be reasonable, but how she is conveying it just wants you to see her fail.

    What has become of UK politics. 😕
    If you find Swinson angry and nasty, she is just the tip of the SLD iceberg. Next exhibit: Willie Rennie.
    The main thrust of my point is not the weaknesses of Swinson, but the direction of UK politics that has installed her and the other leaders. Jo, Bojo, and Jez were elevated because what were the alternatives? Javid? Gove? Raab? Hunt? I don’t wish to come over all Seant, but Cooper and Burnham are about as charismatic as the downbeat farts you get from eating too much wet lettuce.

    Maybe in this modern era where respect for politics itself is at all time low, it’s a career no longer attracting enough talent? Certainly the political parties themselves are very different, in a mind to purge members rather than seeing remaining a broad church as sacrosanct and vital to the parties electability.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    If only Spitting Image was still with us.

    Ken Clarke staggers off the holiday beach, sun burnt, a tad over on the Adrian Chiles on the old units, to find her maj wants him to be next PM.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    And I thought Mandelson was a creep.... :open_mouth:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Zephyr said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to Philip Thompson. Has he gone in for a service?

    I came on to see how HY is spinning the Indy / BMG poll. Has he given up? ☹️
    What did it show?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    On unhelpful narratives: I'm re-watching Babylon 5 (seasons 2-4).

    Is it any good? I thought it was absolutely brilliant when it first came out in the 90's, but I'm afraid to rewatch in case its aged badly... :(
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.

    Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.

    We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Labour are the biggest opposition party.

    It is incredible therefore that Swinson and half the Labour Party don’t want Jezza as the alternative PM.

    But not as incredible as Jezza being leader of the Labour Party.

    And not as incredible as former moderates such as Nick lining up to support him.

    Labour have been sleepwalking to this abyss for years - now they are nearly over the edge. Goodnight Labour.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Indeed. ISTR Dementia Tax, fox hunting, grammar schools, Ivory sales, etc, were brilliant ideas for the last thumping Tory majority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    And I thought Mandelson was a creep.... :open_mouth:
    As Mandy was a 3 times election winning strategist we shall see whether Cummings is good enough to even win one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    TGOHF said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Labour are the biggest opposition party.

    It is incredible therefore that Swinson and half the Labour Party don’t want Jezza as the alternative PM.

    But not as incredible as Jezza being leader of the Labour Party.

    And not as incredible as former moderates such as Nick lining up to support him.

    Labour have been sleepwalking to this abyss for years - now they are nearly over the edge. Goodnight Labour.
    You say 'Labour' but it isn't Labour. Not as far as the current membership goes. Whatever they are, and I suspect it is mainly student millennial Grace Blakely marxists and clapped out 1970s Trots, they aren't the people who helped Wilson or Blair win several times.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.

    Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.

    We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
    So PM - what’s your policy ?

    Well extend then er...

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited August 2019

    And I thought Mandelson was a creep.... :open_mouth:
    As Mandy was a 3 times election winning strategist we shall see whether Cummings is good enough to even win one.
    Mandy could win elections, but he was simply so oily...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    The Isolationist in Chief. I am the President of America not the world:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1162468054200139778
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    And I thought Mandelson was a creep.... :open_mouth:
    As Mandy was a 3 times election winning strategist we shall see whether Cummings is good enough to even win one.
    Mandy could win elections, but he was simply so oily...
    Indeed. But down at the SureStart centres the young parents didn't care whether he really did order guacamole in a fish shop or not.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    dixiedean said:

    Indeed. ISTR Dementia Tax, fox hunting, grammar schools, Ivory sales, etc, were brilliant ideas for the last thumping Tory majority.
    Apparently they are going to fiddle with the housing market for this year's election wheeze...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Labour are the biggest opposition party.

    It is incredible therefore that Swinson and half the Labour Party don’t want Jezza as the alternative PM.

    But not as incredible as Jezza being leader of the Labour Party.

    And not as incredible as former moderates such as Nick lining up to support him.

    Labour have been sleepwalking to this abyss for years - now they are nearly over the edge. Goodnight Labour.
    You say 'Labour' but it isn't Labour. Not as far as the current membership goes. Whatever they are, and I suspect it is mainly student millennial Grace Blakely marxists and clapped out 1970s Trots, they aren't the people who helped Wilson or Blair win several times.
    Yvette Cooper
    Tom Watson
    Keir Starmer

    It’s Labour alright - but they’ve sold their souls to the devil.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    TGOHF said:
    The centre cannot hold...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    And so, Brexit begins the break-up of the UK.

    The Little Englanders will be dancing in the streets

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1162307260766478336?s=21
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.

    Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.

    We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
    You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    dixiedean said:

    Indeed. ISTR Dementia Tax, fox hunting, grammar schools, Ivory sales, etc, were brilliant ideas for the last thumping Tory majority.
    This week's brilliant election winner - make the grey rinse who are selling their family home pay the Stamp Duty.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.

    Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.

    We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
    So PM - what’s your policy ?

    Well extend then er...

    Tbf to KC he was very clear on this point on PM. That the important thing was to unite around a plan not a person. I fear he is somewhat Sui Generis amongst MPs of all persuasions on this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    TGOHF said:
    Which PM Boris would block until the Holyrood 2021 elections
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1162481735436685312

    Serious point though. When finally (please please please) Trump is gone, Halley is the one?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    MJW said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Fenman said:

    The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.

    I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
    Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
    I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
    I can't believe Corbynistas are still pushing this nonsense. It's the most disingenuous load of claptrap since the last load to come out of the lying mouths of shameless propagandists like Jones. Corbyn even with the Lib Dems isn't close to having the numbers.

    If Labour wanted to stop no deal it could do so by sidelining the vile Corbyn, but no, using the crisis to foist a horrible crackpot on us prime minister is more important than that.

    I expect the focus to change once Swinson's proved totally right and Labour fails to come up with the numbers. They might not even be able to win the initial VONC if it's clear it's going to lead to Corbyn as PM.
    And to state the bleeding obvious: If the Corbnistas were serious about stopping No Deal, they would be wooing Swinsons's Lib Dems, not slagging them off.

    For Corbyn it is all about dodging the wrath of the Labour voters for his evasive and mendacious role in the Brexit farce.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    And so, Brexit begins the break-up of the UK.

    The Little Englanders will be dancing in the streets

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1162307260766478336?s=21

    Only 46% of Scots back independence including Don't Knows in the latest poll despite Brexit
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited August 2019

    And so, Brexit begins the break-up of the UK.

    The Little Englanders will be dancing in the streets

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1162307260766478336?s=21

    Yep. The Conservative and Unionist party is starting to look a bit jaundiced.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    TGOHF said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Labour are the biggest opposition party.

    It is incredible therefore that Swinson and half the Labour Party don’t want Jezza as the alternative PM.

    But not as incredible as Jezza being leader of the Labour Party.

    And not as incredible as former moderates such as Nick lining up to support him.

    Labour have been sleepwalking to this abyss for years - now they are nearly over the edge. Goodnight Labour.
    You say 'Labour' but it isn't Labour. Not as far as the current membership goes. Whatever they are, and I suspect it is mainly student millennial Grace Blakely marxists and clapped out 1970s Trots, they aren't the people who helped Wilson or Blair win several times.
    We're all Lib Dems now. I saw Corbyn on TV tonight and wondered what sort of a campaign could you use to sell him. I couldn't think of a single USP other than he's not Johnson but Swinson's already has that one taken.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534



    You say 'Labour' but it isn't Labour. Not as far as the current membership goes. Whatever they are, and I suspect it is mainly student millennial Grace Blakely marxists and clapped out 1970s Trots, they aren't the people who helped Wilson or Blair win several times.

    Yes they are - mostly. The majority of members who I know in both my current and my former CLPs have been members (sometimes on and off) for 20+ years - typically they joined around age 30 and are now around age 50. Most are like me, pragmatic leftists who favour the most left-wing government (within reason) that can realistically be achieved. In 1997 there was so much to do to clean up the Tory shambles that Blair's agenda was plenty to be getting on with. By 2010, we felt we'd run through that agenda, and by 2015 we wanted something more radical.

    The tug of war is *always* between people who think that the party if it moves too far left, and people who think it's only worth winning if you're attractively left-wing. Very few members have ever actually wanted to be Christian Democrat types - it's just that some felt it was necessary. In the present climate, perhaps not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    Ken Clarke might be able to get a majority for a GNU to extend again, with Boris becoming Leader of the Opposition.

    Corbyn would not be able to get the 50 odd Tory MPs needed who oppose No Deal and the LDs and CUK behind him, Clarke might.

    We would then have a Clarke government propped up by Labour, the LDs, Hammond led Tory rebels, CUK, the SNP and Plaid and the Greens with Boris Leader of the Opposition comprising the majority of Tory MPs and the DUP and a handful of rebel pro Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey and Mann
    You are right about the immediate and irredeemable split in the Conservative Party but probably wrong about Boris being Leader of the Opposition since he will almost certainly have resigned as party leader.
    Oh absolutely not, Boris would remain leader of the Tory Party with the vast majority of Tory MPs and an even bigger majority of Tory members and voters fully behind him as Leader of the Leaver Opposition to take the fight to the Clarke led Remainer Government, propped up by Hammond, Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon betraying the will of the people.

    Boris will relish being the champion of the people against the establishment Remainer coup and the idea of a Tory Remainer like Ken Clarke as PM propped up by Corbyn to betray Brexit will go down a treat in Labour Leave seats Boris needs to win to win the next general election
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    If Biden starts to run from the press, it is over.

    Starting to like my Buttigieg wildcard bet at 250/1
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited August 2019

    Are our comments regarding Swinson's response to Jezza's offer totally along party lines? Or do we have any Labour posters who think she got it right and/or LibDems who think she judged in badly?

    I don't know about here, but tomorrow's Guardian will have a letter from the LibDem leader in my patch (with me and the Green leader) urging that Corbyn's offer be taken seriously. That should not be taken as an attack on Swinson - it simply reflects the fact that we all doubt if there is another way to stop No Deal.
    If he was the only way to stop no deal he'd get my vote but for most Lbour Remainers I know it would be a toss up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772



    You say 'Labour' but it isn't Labour. Not as far as the current membership goes. Whatever they are, and I suspect it is mainly student millennial Grace Blakely marxists and clapped out 1970s Trots, they aren't the people who helped Wilson or Blair win several times.

    Yes they are - mostly. The majority of members who I know in both my current and my former CLPs have been members (sometimes on and off) for 20+ years - typically they joined around age 30 and are now around age 50. Most are like me, pragmatic leftists who favour the most left-wing government (within reason) that can realistically be achieved. In 1997 there was so much to do to clean up the Tory shambles that Blair's agenda was plenty to be getting on with. By 2010, we felt we'd run through that agenda, and by 2015 we wanted something more radical.

    The tug of war is *always* between people who think that the party if it moves too far left, and people who think it's only worth winning if you're attractively left-wing. Very few members have ever actually wanted to be Christian Democrat types - it's just that some felt it was necessary. In the present climate, perhaps not.
    So why are so many long standing members leaving in disgust?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited August 2019
    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Fenman said:

    The lib dem agent got this badly wrong last time. Won't happen again. Writing on the wall for Corbym.

    I doubt that Swinson has helped LibDem prospects with her pronouncements this week. She has provided Labour with ammunition to return fire.
    Wishful thinking. LAB attacks on Swinson help with tsctical voting
    I suspect the wishful thinking lies with you - certainly as far as Labour tactical votes are concerned. She has given new life to 'the Tories' Little Helpers' theme. As Owen Jones points out in his Guardian article, here is someone perfectly happy to prop up Cameron for 5 years yet not prepared to put Corbyn in office for 5 weeks. So much for her committment to doing everything to avoid No Deal.
    I can't believe Corbynistas are still pushing this nonsense. It's the most disingenuous load of claptrap since the last load to come out of the lying mouths of shameless propagandists like Jones. Corbyn even with the Lib Dems isn't close to having the numbers.

    If Labour wanted to stop no deal it could do so by sidelining the vile Corbyn, but no, using the crisis to foist a horrible crackpot on us prime minister is more important than that.

    I expect the focus to change once Swinson's proved totally right and Labour fails to come up with the numbers. They might not even be able to win the initial VONC if it's clear it's going to lead to Corbyn as PM.
    And to state the bleeding obvious: If the Corbnistas were serious about stopping No Deal, they would be wooing Swinsons's Lib Dems, not slagging them off.

    For Corbyn it is all about dodging the wrath of the Labour voters for his evasive and mendacious role in the Brexit farce.
    Yep.

    When the history books are written Corbyn's handmaiden role in this economic disaster will be documented.

    But to be fair to him briefly, he has been a LEXITeer since Tony Benn asked him to carry a bag, and he aint gonna change now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Jo Swinson’s fate lies in the hands of the thousands of Tories in her constituency. If they can stomach her “Bollocks to Brexit” campaign, some might still lend her a tactical vote. Others won’t.

    Nobody can tell from national polls.

    They'll do anything to keep the SNP out
    That’s how some voters behave Mike: against a candidate.

    Others prefer to vote for the candidate closest to their own views: for a candidate.

    Swinson will undeniably attract *some* Tories by being anti-independence. However, she will repel *some* Tories by being anti-Brexit.

    Neither you nor I can tell how those proportions will play out in East Dunbartonshire by looking at national polls (assuming we had a few to look at).

    The local Tories are key. Swinson’s fate lies entirely in their hands. Hence her backing off on going for Johnson’s throat.
    Yes, but Scots do seem particularly keen on a party when it appoints a Scottish leader. Brown, Kennedy, Steel, etc.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Foxy said:


    Yes, but Scots do seem particularly keen on a party when it appoints a Scottish leader. Brown, Kennedy, Steel, etc.

    Iain Duncan Smith ….. oh, wait.
This discussion has been closed.