Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Brexit Party forecast to gain Ashfield, Boston and Skegness, Clywd South, West Carmathen and Pembrokeshire, Mansfield and Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I believe the site breaks down how it calculates but looks like the Brexit Party is forecast to have as many Welsh MPs as Plaid
I could see those on the site, but I don't know 'why'.
I would love to know what they do. I would be interested in the maths and the assumptions and compare to other methodologies.
I have never looked at this.
I assume we have experts on the site who could write a thread.
Electoral Calculus is basically a tweaked version of UNS. Have a look at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html . It's pretty much worthless in today's politics, as the nutso idea of the Brexit Party gaining Preseli Pembrokeshire should tell you.
Flavible is much more interesting. Still for entertainment purposes only, but its calculations from the Survation poll give Con 285 Lab 217 LD 71 SNP 53 Brexit 1, which at least passes the sanity check.
Certainly I wouldn't be as confident as @DecrepitJohnL in asserting that "It is a pound to a penny the SNP on 4% will get more seats than BXP (15%) and LDs (25%) combined". It's quite plausible that the Lib Dems could top the SNP seat tally.
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Brecon on EC model vs BE
CON 27.0%; 39.0% LIB 30.5%; 43.5% LAB 10.3%; 5.3% Plaid 5.2%; Didn't stand UKIP 0.4%; 0.8% Brexit 21.5%; 10.5% Green 3.5%; Didn't stand OTH 1.5%; 1.0% (Loony)
Brecon really doesn't bode well for the Brexit party as one can see in the above.
Now you might argue there was a two party squeeze on but going through seat by seat
Ashfield <- If Zadrozny wears the Brexit party badge they might have a chance. If he runs under another rosette I highly doubt BREX wins. Clywd South <- Tories best placed to beat Labour West wales target seats Preseli Pembrokeshire <- Highly marginal, BREX might cost Crabb the seat but they won't win it. Carmarthen West <- Similiar to Preseli Mansfield <- Bradley is a strong leaver, again there is a squeeze message. Boston <- Potentially, I expect the Tory vote will hold up enough to win though.
Thurrock looks the "first" seat to drop, again there is a squeeze message though.
On 15% it looks like null points for BREX to me.
And governing parties normally do worse in BEs compared to General Elections, so if you want to argue that Brecon can't be carried across I'd agree but it is to the Brexit Parties disadvantage in that case !
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Well then, Johnson needs to convince people he is genuinely willing to negotiate. It would be fatal for him simply to stonewall and delay with the idea of leaving without a deal.
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, he needs to keep No Deal to get a Tory majority, if he gets a Tory majority he can then pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
If he does not he will still likely lead the largest party in the Commons on today's poll and can propose 'cake for all' to his hearts content while opposing the Labour, LD and SNP government
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Just out of interest, do you really think that leaving the EU is the best thing for the Tory party's prospects of winning future elections? Remainers are clearly now in the majority and that trajectory may well continue. And while keeping the base happy isn't unimportant, being associated with leave isn't going to help win over floaters.
Given the Tories would be obliterated if they extend again by the Brexit Party as they were in the European Parliament elections, given the Tories have a 4% lead over Labour with Boris today with Survation ie more than in 2017, given only 43% of voters are committed to Remain, what an absurd question
But would they be obliterated by the Brexit Party? Unless Boris manages to push the Tory voting intention back into single figures, it would be very clear that voting Brexit Party was going to let Labour into government. There is a reasonable chance that Labour would rejoin the EU. I know the hard left supports Brexit, but most people who support Brexit identify with the right. Do you really think they'll risk letting Labour in?
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
In Australia they had referendum on the monarchy which failed in part because they pitched a specific republic model against the monarchy. Had they not taken this precaution they may well now be a republic under a model with has less support than the constitutional monarchy. If the latter had occurred, would they be reflecting the “will of the people” or not?
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Just out of interest, do you really think that leaving the EU is the best thing for the Tory party's prospects of winning future elections? Remainers are clearly now in the majority and that trajectory may well continue. And while keeping the base happy isn't unimportant, being associated with leave isn't going to help win over floaters.
Given the Tories would be obliterated if they extend again by the Brexit Party as they were in the European Parliament elections, given the Tories have a 4% lead over Labour with Boris today with Survation ie more than in 2017, given only 43% of voters are committed to Remain, what an absurd question
But would they be obliterated by the Brexit Party? Unless Boris manages to push the Tory voting intention back into single figures, it would be very clear that voting Brexit Party was going to let Labour into government. There is a reasonable chance that Labour would rejoin the EU. I know the hard left supports Brexit, but most people who support Brexit identify with the right. Do you really think they'll risk letting Labour in?
I have to say I do think they would. All reason seems to have been lost.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
Another is: what is the path to ref 2 that does not involve Corbyn becoming PM? I see only two ways for that to happen and both look unlikely: 1. Lib dems win more seats/poach more sitting MPs than Labour 2. Labour somehow ditch Corbyn, either between now and next GE, or after a GE result.
Yes, I think the harsh truth - and for many it IS harsh - is that if you want to stop Brexit you must stomach Jez in Number 10.
In Australia they had referendum on the monarchy which failed in part because they pitched a specific republic model against the monarchy. Had they not taken this precaution they may well now be a republic under a model with has less support than the constitutional monarchy. If the latter had occurred, would they be reflecting the “will of the people” or not?
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Brexit Party forecast to gain Ashfield, Boston and Skegness, Clywd South, West Carmathen and Pembrokeshire, Mansfield and Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I believe the site breaks down how it calculates but looks like the Brexit Party is forecast to have as many Welsh MPs as Plaid
I could see those on the site, but I don't know 'why'.
I would love to know what they do. I would be interested in the maths and the assumptions and compare to other methodologies.
I have never looked at this.
I assume we have experts on the site who could write a thread.
Electoral Calculus is basically a tweaked version of UNS. Have a look at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html . It's pretty much worthless in today's politics, as the nutso idea of the Brexit Party gaining Preseli Pembrokeshire should tell you.
Flavible is much more interesting. Still for entertainment purposes only, but its calculations from the Survation poll give Con 285 Lab 217 LD 71 SNP 53 Brexit 1, which at least passes the sanity check.
Certainly I wouldn't be as confident as @DecrepitJohnL in asserting that "It is a pound to a penny the SNP on 4% will get more seats than BXP (15%) and LDs (25%) combined". It's quite plausible that the Lib Dems could top the SNP seat tally.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, he needs to keep No Deal to get a Tory majority, if he gets a Tory majority he can then pass the Withdrawal Agreement
When you meet No Dealers on the doorstep, will you tell them to vote Conservative so they can be betrayed?
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Brexit Party forecast to gain Ashfield, Boston and Skegness, Clywd South, West Carmathen and Pembrokeshire, Mansfield and Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I believe the site breaks down how it calculates but looks like the Brexit Party is forecast to have as many Welsh MPs as Plaid
I could see those on the site, but I don't know 'why'.
I would love to know what they do. I would be interested in the maths and the assumptions and compare to other methodologies.
I have never looked at this.
I assume we have experts on the site who could write a thread.
Electoral Calculus is basically a tweaked version of UNS. Have a look at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html . It's pretty much worthless in today's politics, as the nutso idea of the Brexit Party gaining Preseli Pembrokeshire should tell you.
Flavible is much more interesting. Still for entertainment purposes only, but its calculations from the Survation poll give Con 285 Lab 217 LD 71 SNP 53 Brexit 1, which at least passes the sanity check.
Certainly I wouldn't be as confident as @DecrepitJohnL in asserting that "It is a pound to a penny the SNP on 4% will get more seats than BXP (15%) and LDs (25%) combined". It's quite plausible that the Lib Dems could top the SNP seat tally.
I could see those on the site, but I don't know 'why'.
I would love to know what they do. I would be interested in the maths and the assumptions and compare to other methodologies.
I have never looked at this.
I assume we have experts on the site who could write a thread.
The actual algorithms are not published but kept proprietary. Each group usually gives a good explanation of how it works though. For Electoral Calculus you can find their explanations here https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/psephology.html
I'm a statistician not a psephologist, but it would be possible for me to understand and write-up the information available the public domain with a minimal amount of mathematical formulae, and send it in for a PB article. But that would be a huge amount of work and to be honest I have more important and more fun things to be getting on with.
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Brecon on EC model vs BE
CON 27.0%; 39.0% LIB 30.5%; 43.5% LAB 10.3%; 5.3% Plaid 5.2%; Didn't stand UKIP 0.4%; 0.8% Brexit 21.5%; 10.5% Green 3.5%; Didn't stand OTH 1.5%; 1.0% (Loony)
Brecon really doesn't bode well for the Brexit party as one can see in the above.
Now you might argue there was a two party squeeze on but going through seat by seat
Ashfield
Thank you, although I think I need a more idiot guide, but you confirm what my gut says re Brexit seats. What is the starting data for Brexit party?
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Just out of interest, do you really think that leaving the EU is the best thing for the Tory party's prospects of winning future elections? Remainers are clearly now in the majority and that trajectory may well continue. And while keeping the base happy isn't unimportant, being associated with leave isn't going to help win over floaters.
Given the Tories would be obliterated if they extend again by the Brexit Party as they were in the European Parliament elections, given the Tories have a 4% lead over Labour with Boris today with Survation ie more than in 2017, given only 43% of voters are committed to Remain, what an absurd question
But would they be obliterated by the Brexit Party? Unless Boris manages to push the Tory voting intention back into single figures, it would be very clear that voting Brexit Party was going to let Labour into government. There is a reasonable chance that Labour would rejoin the EU. I know the hard left supports Brexit, but most people who support Brexit identify with the right. Do you really think they'll risk letting Labour in?
Labour would not get in with a majority, they would need LD support to form a Government as today's poll shows.
The Brexit Party would likely win over 200 seats if the Tories extend again, the Tories would be lucky to get 50
The whole point is Rayner wants students to apply for higher education courses ****after**** they receive their exam results.
This is a direct quote from Rayner's article " This means that students will apply for higher education courses after they receive their exam results"
You seem fully qualified to join Corbyn's front bench team.
These days, the interweb thingy we are using means that even the initial application can now be sent in August, just like in Clearing. This means students who do better than expected can apply for top degrees like PPE at Oxford. Then, just like in Clearing and in Ireland, the universities can make offers on the basis of actual results.
It is entirely possible to do all this with no changes to school terms or exam timetables.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, he needs to keep No Deal to get a Tory majority, if he gets a Tory majority he can then pass the Withdrawal Agreement
When you meet No Dealers on the doorstep, will you tell them to vote Conservative so they can be betrayed?
I will tell them to vote Conservative to deliver Brexit with a Tory majority
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Well then, Johnson needs to convince people he is genuinely willing to negotiate. It would be fatal for him simply to stonewall and delay with the idea of leaving without a deal.
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, he needs to keep No Deal to get a Tory majority, if he gets a Tory majority he can then pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Er, how does he do that by scheduling an election after October 31st? And if he doesn’t you think he is going to have an election and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement, backstop and all? And this will be in the manifesto? He’ll need a very large majority! Makes me think that your information sources are a bit dicey.
I could see those on the site, but I don't know 'why'.
I would love to know what they do. I would be interested in the maths and the assumptions and compare to other methodologies.
I have never looked at this.
I assume we have experts on the site who could write a thread.
The actual algorithms are not published but kept proprietary. Each group usually gives a good explanation of how it works though. For Electoral Calculus you can find their explanations here https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/psephology.html
I'm a statistician not a psephologist, but it would be possible for me to understand and write-up the information available the public domain with a minimal amount of mathematical formulae, and send it in for a PB article. But that would be a huge amount of work and to be honest I have more important and more fun things to be getting on with.
Thank you, and I now appreciate even more your response re my comment on poll earlier today. Shame about not doing a thread though.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
If you ask about extending further then as Opinium showed last weekend No Deal is preferred to extend further or Remain combined
My question though -
If Boris DOES go for an extension, would the party replace him as leader and PM?
IYO.
Members would MPs not sure but the Brexit Party would overtake the Tories again regardless and Boris knows that
I might. And I might also vote for a sensible replacement. Sadly the fuckwits have forced out a bunch of sensible Cons members but I would try to start the process of bringing the party back to its senses.
I appreciate that similarly to me, you also are on the verge of resigning and are only staying in order to vote for Philip Hammond in any forthcoming leadership election so my message to you remains: hold fast! Keep pretending that you support this lot (I realise the silence option isn't viable for you) and we'll get our party back.
In Australia they had referendum on the monarchy which failed in part because they pitched a specific republic model against the monarchy. Had they not taken this precaution they may well now be a republic under a model with has less support than the constitutional monarchy. If the latter had occurred, would they be reflecting the “will of the people” or not?
Australia voted to retain the monarchy full stop
They voted to retain the monarchy over a specific republican model. In other words, on the evidence provided, Monarchism has a plurality of support over other Republican models.
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Well then, Johnson needs to convince people he is genuinely willing to negotiate. It would be fatal for him simply to stonewall and delay with the idea of leaving without a deal.
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, he needs to keep No Deal to get a Tory majority, if he gets a Tory majority he can then pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Er, how does he do that by scheduling an election after October 31st? And if he doesn’t you think he is going to have an election and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement, backstop and all? And this will be in the manifesto? He’ll need a very large majority! Makes me think that your information sources are a bit dicey.
If he has a majority he has a good chance of passing the Withdrawal Agreement, especially if he gets something on the backstop from the EU, if he does not get a majority he has no chance of passing the Withdrawal Agreement with or without the backstop
I appreciate that similarly to me, you also are on the verge of resigning and are only staying in order to vote for Philip Hammond in any forthcoming leadership election so my message to you remains: hold fast! Keep pretending that you support this lot (I realise the silence option isn't viable for you) and we'll get our party back.
I fear diehard Remainers left in the Tory party will end up like that poor chap in Hong Kong airport, suspected of spying for the enemy.
It's still abstract though: A deal, not THE deal. I suspect a chunk of those supporting a deal in principle will still reject the Withdrawal Agreement accepted by May that includes the backstop. This is the only deal currently available.
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Well then, Johnson needs to convince people he is genuinely willing to negotiate. It would be fatal for him simply to stonewall and delay with the idea of leaving without a deal.
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, he needs to keep No Deal to get a Tory majority, if he gets a Tory majority he can then pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Er, how does he do that by scheduling an election after October 31st? And if he doesn’t you think he is going to have an election and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement, backstop and all? And this will be in the manifesto? He’ll need a very large majority! Makes me think that your information sources are a bit dicey.
If he has a majority he has a good chance of passing the Withdrawal Agreement, especially if he gets something on the backstop from the EU, if he does not get a majority he has no chance of passing the Withdrawal Agreement with or without the backstop
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
HYUFD’s view seems to be that he doesn’t want to negotiate because he’s perfectly happy with the existing deal
I'm a statistician not a psephologist, but it would be possible for me to understand and write-up the information available the public domain with a minimal amount of mathematical formulae, and send it in for a PB article. But that would be a huge amount of work and to be honest I have more important and more fun things to be getting on with.
More fun, I'm sure, but more important?
Hard to imagine that.
Unless you are learning how to bake or something ...
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
Of course they apply as it is based on Boris getting a renegotiation that removes the backstop as he wants, if not a plurality of voters back No Deal over Revoke or extend again as the poll shows
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Well then, Johnson needs to convince people he is genuinely willing to negotiate. It would be fatal for him simply to stonewall and delay with the idea of leaving without a deal.
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, he needs to keep No Deal to get a Tory majority, if he gets a Tory majority he can then pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Er, how does he do that by scheduling an election after October 31st? And if he doesn’t you think he is going to have an election and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement, backstop and all? And this will be in the manifesto? He’ll need a very large majority! Makes me think that your information sources are a bit dicey.
If he has a majority he has a good chance of passing the Withdrawal Agreement, especially if he gets something on the backstop from the EU, if he does not get a majority he has no chance of passing the Withdrawal Agreement with or without the backstop
That Survation poll doesn't give much solace for all those pbers valiantly trying to argue that there is a mandate for no deal Brexit. Clearly the public has yet to get the memo that something that the Leave campaigners vigorously rejected during the referendum campaign now has a mandate.
I commented forth down the threat that you could put me down as a possible and I do live in a Con/Lab marginal. Made easier because the current MP is pro-EU
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
Of course they apply as it is based on Boris getting a renegotiation that removes the backstop as he wants, if not a plurality of voters back No Deal over Revoke or extend again as the poll shows
But when asked how they would vote in a second referendum 55% said they would vote to remain.
Are there any Labour party rules that prevent someone other than party leader becoming PM? I do seem to recall something, but the details are misty.
Probably not, as the current prime minister, Mr Johnson, is not the leader of the Labour party.
Drat your pedantry! Such a rule would sit well with the communism though.
OK. Are there any internal Labour party rules that prevent a Labour figure other than the leader becoming PM?
I should love to become a professional pedant, but I think there would be too much competition.
Answering my own question, it is not mandated but taken as read that the Labour Leader in government would become PM. Coalition demands that leader should not become PM or that Labour could one day be a minor coalition partner, are not considered:
1.VII.1.A.viii When the party is in government, the Leader shall appoint the cabinet and all other front bench positions in their capacity as Prime Minister.
4.II.2.E.i When the party is in government and the Party Leader is prime minister and, for whatever reason, becomes permanently unavailable, the Cabinet shall...appoint one of its members to serve as party leader until a ballot....can be carried out.
Given a Cabinet is needed, it is unclear at what point Corbyn would be able, should the need or want arise, to declare himself permanently unavailable in the event of government formation.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
Of course they apply as it is based on Boris getting a renegotiation that removes the backstop as he wants, if not a plurality of voters back No Deal over Revoke or extend again as the poll shows
If we exit then we won't renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, we will need to sign a whole new agreement. The withdrawal agreement dies the second we leave.
A new agreement will need to be agreed unanimously including national and in some countries subnational parliaments not just QMV and the European Parliament.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
Of course they apply as it is based on Boris getting a renegotiation that removes the backstop as he wants, if not a plurality of voters back No Deal over Revoke or extend again as the poll shows
Just, please try to concentrate, and read what you're replying to, before you hit the "Post" button.
I said - if he doesn't convince people that he genuinely wants to negotiate, the opinion poll figures about him wanting to negotiate but being unable to do so don't apply.
I hate to say this, but do you have dementia or some kind of cognitive problem? Because if you do, you need help.
I appreciate that similarly to me, you also are on the verge of resigning and are only staying in order to vote for Philip Hammond in any forthcoming leadership election so my message to you remains: hold fast! Keep pretending that you support this lot (I realise the silence option isn't viable for you) and we'll get our party back.
I fear diehard Remainers left in the Tory party will end up like that poor chap in Hong Kong airport, suspected of spying for the enemy.
S'OK we're all going on secret "how to eat peas" courses which should see us blend in seamlessly.
Another is: what is the path to ref 2 that does not involve Corbyn becoming PM? I see only two ways for that to happen and both look unlikely: 1. Lib dems win more seats/poach more sitting MPs than Labour 2. Labour somehow ditch Corbyn, either between now and next GE, or after a GE result.
Yes, I think the harsh truth - and for many it IS harsh - is that if you want to stop Brexit you must stomach Jez in Number 10.
Indeed. To some extent, I think any Labour leader would have been seen as insufficiently remainy to Lib Dems. After all it wasn't that long ago Chuka was telling people leaving the single market was an acceptable price to pay to introduce immigration restrictions. Ed Miliband wanted to be tough on immigration etc.
The Lib dems should see it as quite a triumph that they've been part of persuading Labour to completely shift its position on brexit in just 2 years.
Corbyn has his own baggage of course. But in terms of world view, I see similarities between him and the Lib Dems on many issues like Iraq, civil liberties, house of lords reform, tuition fees etc...
Are there any Labour party rules that prevent someone other than party leader becoming PM? I do seem to recall something, but the details are misty.
Probably not, as the current prime minister, Mr Johnson, is not the leader of the Labour party.
Drat your pedantry! Such a rule would sit well with the communism though.
OK. Are there any internal Labour party rules that prevent a Labour figure other than the leader becoming PM?
I should love to become a professional pedant, but I think there would be too much competition.
Answering my own question, it is not mandated but taken as read that the Labour Leader in government would become PM. Coalition demands that leader should not become PM or that Labour could one day be a minor coalition partner, are not considered:
1.VII.1.A.viii When the party is in government, the Leader shall appoint the cabinet and all other front bench positions in their capacity as Prime Minister.
4.II.2.E.i When the party is in government and the Party Leader is prime minister and, for whatever reason, becomes permanently unavailable, the Cabinet shall...appoint one of its members to serve as party leader until a ballot....can be carried out.
Given a Cabinet is needed, it is unclear at what point Corbyn would be able, should the need or want arise, to declare himself permanently unavailable in the event of government formation.
A Corbyn resignation / unavailability would have to be prior to government, in which case Watson would assume and become PM.
No mechanism I can see for my pet theory that Corbyn might parachute in Long-Bailey.
It's also worth noting that Survation, as other pollsters frequently now have to do, have had to reweight the Leave/Remain split. On the original sample, Remain would have "won" 51.4:48.6.
This seems to be a recurrent problem for pollsters. Possible explanations:
1) some Leavers are harder to reach - these hard-to-reach Leavers may not be typical of other Leavers, making the poll findings a bit suspect. 2) some erstwhile Leavers are forgetting how they voted. This means that the Remain sample needs to be looked at with suspicion. 3) some erstwhile Leavers are choosing to retrospectively redefine who they voted for. This may mean that Remain is now wrongly being downweighted.
We have to consider the possibility that the polling is understating Remain-supporting views.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
Opinium at the weekend asked what Boris should do if he cannot renegotiate and pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st?
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
Of course they apply as it is based on Boris getting a renegotiation that removes the backstop as he wants, if not a plurality of voters back No Deal over Revoke or extend again as the poll shows
If we exit then we won't renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, we will need to sign a whole new agreement. The withdrawal agreement dies the second we leave.
A new agreement will need to be agreed unanimously including national and in some countries subnational parliaments not just QMV and the European Parliament.
To be fair HYUFD only said he would get it passed in Parliament. He didn’t actually say it would be implemented.
It's also worth noting that Survation, as other pollsters frequently now have to do, have had to reweight the Leave/Remain split. On the original sample, Remain would have "won" 51.4:48.6.
This seems to be a recurrent problem for pollsters. Possible explanations:
1) some Leavers are harder to reach - these hard-to-reach Leavers may not be typical of other Leavers, making the poll findings a bit suspect. 2) some erstwhile Leavers are forgetting how they voted. This means that the Remain sample needs to be looked at with suspicion. 3) some erstwhile Leavers are choosing to retrospectively redefine who they voted for. This may mean that Remain is now wrongly being downweighted.
We have to consider the possibility that the polling is understating Remain-supporting views.
Or some are unable to be reached because they have sadly died
You don't think those ads ARE gender stereotyping?
Or you do but think gender stereotyping is not harmful?
Or you do, and you do, but think such ads should nevertheless be aired?
I don't think the Philadelphia ad is stereotyping. VW one I get, with the sharp contrast between multiple active men and sedantry women, but the Philadelphia one had no context like that, just a bit of situational comedy.
Members would MPs not sure but the Brexit Party would overtake the Tories again regardless and Boris knows that
That's my reading. Fury amongst members but the MPs would give him 3 to 6 months to get a deal done.
And the BP poll position only matters when there's an election.
So, GE in 2020 after he gets a deal through - which he wins - that's my prediction.
Then he WILL be the Great Man.
Thanks for your input into the workings of the Conservative Party. But as has been pointed out "a deal in six months"? The WA took two years and wasn't a deal it was a few preliminaries so that a deal could be done. The only thing that Boris could do in six months is to address the three main points that the EU has said will still be outstanding before negotiation of a deal can commence - citizens, money, backstop.
That places him exactly where May was, where he is now, and where he would be should he pursue that route.
It's still abstract though: A deal, not THE deal. I suspect a chunk of those supporting a deal in principle will still reject the Withdrawal Agreement accepted by May that includes the backstop. This is the only deal currently available.
This group includes Boris Johnson apparently. He's on the chosen by himself for ease of answering "People's" PMQs saying that he wants a deal but as the only one so far negotiated has been rejected by UK parliament three times it is up to the EU side to compromise.
[Um, Boris. The EU side doesn't care. It's up to the UK side in that situation to come up with a compelling counteroffer.]
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
Of course they apply as it is based on Boris getting a renegotiation that removes the backstop as he wants, if not a plurality of voters back No Deal over Revoke or extend again as the poll shows
Just, please try to concentrate, and read what you're replying to, before you hit the "Post" button.
I said - if he doesn't convince people that he genuinely wants to negotiate, the opinion poll figures about him wanting to negotiate but being unable to do so don't apply.
I hate to say this, but do you have dementia or some kind of cognitive problem? Because if you do, you need help.
We’re you around for the golden era of the French Presidential election when the rest of us failed to recognise the political reality that LePen was winning because she was winning the most French towns and the fact that the election was decided on votes was an inconsequential issue?
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Just out of interest, do you really think that leaving the EU is the best thing for the Tory party's prospects of winning future elections? Remainers are clearly now in the majority and that trajectory may well continue. And while keeping the base happy isn't unimportant, being associated with leave isn't going to help win over floaters.
Given the Tories would be obliterated if they extend again by the Brexit Party as they were in the European Parliament elections, given the Tories have a 4% lead over Labour with Boris today with Survation ie more than in 2017, given only 43% of voters are committed to Remain, what an absurd question
But would they be obliterated by the Brexit Party? Unless Boris manages to push the Tory voting intention back into single figures, it would be very clear that voting Brexit Party was going to let Labour into government. There is a reasonable chance that Labour would rejoin the EU. I know the hard left supports Brexit, but most people who support Brexit identify with the right. Do you really think they'll risk letting Labour in?
Labour would not get in with a majority, they would need LD support to form a Government as today's poll shows.
The Brexit Party would likely win over 200 seats if the Tories extend again, the Tories would be lucky to get 50
Surely if Johnson extends again , but eventually gets a deal.The Brexit Party would be nowhere near that figure.Especially if the GE was in 2022.
You don't think those ads ARE gender stereotyping?
Or you do but think gender stereotyping is not harmful?
Or you do, and you do, but think such ads should nevertheless be aired?
Can I answer?
Yes they are gender sterotyping
Yes I think gender sterotyping CAN be harmful
Do I think those ads are harmful - No.
They are jokes. Anyone who thinks women are inferior or only good enough to look after babies, or men inferior at looking after babies etc will think that anyway. The rest of us can have a laugh without actually believing it. It is not uncommon for us to joke in our house along those lines, but neither myself or my wife believe what we are saying.
You don't think those ads ARE gender stereotyping?
Or you do but think gender stereotyping is not harmful?
Or you do, and you do, but think such ads should nevertheless be aired?
On your first question, it seems to me that the VW does show gender stereotyping, but the Philadelphia one doesn't.
Personally I think it's stark raving bonkers to have bureaucrats to determine such things, and a ludicrous over-reaction to ban such ads, not to mention a disgraceful breach of free speech, but there we go.
No, they are appallingly sexist. What is wrong with you?
See my other response. Your response was a bit over the top, but in fairness my comment was short and not explained. Hopefully my more detailed response will make you feel better about my view. I am strongly in favour of equality, but feel these are harmless bits of fun not to be taken seriously.
Members would MPs not sure but the Brexit Party would overtake the Tories again regardless and Boris knows that
That's my reading. Fury amongst members but the MPs would give him 3 to 6 months to get a deal done.
And the BP poll position only matters when there's an election.
So, GE in 2020 after he gets a deal through - which he wins - that's my prediction.
Then he WILL be the Great Man.
Thanks for your input into the workings of the Conservative Party. But as has been pointed out "a deal in six months"? The WA took two years and wasn't a deal it was a few preliminaries so that a deal could be done. The only thing that Boris could do in six months is to address the three main points that the EU has said will still be outstanding before negotiation of a deal can commence - citizens, money, backstop.
That places him exactly where May was, where he is now, and where he would be should he pursue that route.
Which is why a delay now is an absolute nonsense. It changes nothing, it gives no new options. We know the choices and need to make one now.
The only reason a delay now would make sense is if the EU were to announce "the backstop was a mistake, we are dropping it and need a few months to finalise an alternative". I don't see that being done, and it isn't necessary either because the alternative could be finalised during transition.
To be precise, the question was "Boris Johnson wants to change the Withdrawal Agreement made between Theresa May’s government and the European Union. If Boris Johnson is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that enables it to pass the House of Commons before October 31st, which of the following should he do?
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
Of course they apply as it is based on Boris getting a renegotiation that removes the backstop as he wants, if not a plurality of voters back No Deal over Revoke or extend again as the poll shows
Just, please try to concentrate, and read what you're replying to, before you hit the "Post" button.
I said - if he doesn't convince people that he genuinely wants to negotiate, the opinion poll figures about him wanting to negotiate but being unable to do so don't apply.
I hate to say this, but do you have dementia or some kind of cognitive problem? Because if you do, you need help.
We’re you around for the golden era of the French Presidential election when the rest of us failed to recognise the political reality that LePen was winning because she was winning the most French towns and the fact that the election was decided on votes was an inconsequential issue?
No.
But I find it really disturbing when people are involved in arguments on the Internet, and they're essentially talking gibberish. There is a lot of dementia about in our society, and no doubt a lot of people with dementia still use the Internet. Now it may just mean they are ignoring what's been said and just spouting propaganda. But maybe it means they genuinely don't understand what the other person has said. It's a problem. Probably 90% of the time, if it is dementia, there's no practicable way of finding out who they are and how they might be helped. One can only hope someone is already aware. But of course that's not always the case.
The only reason a delay now would make sense is if the EU were to announce "the backstop was a mistake, we are dropping it and need a few months to finalise an alternative". I don't see that being done, and it isn't necessary either because the alternative could be finalised during transition.
"the alternative could be finalised during transition"
Err, that's exactly what the sequencing has always been.
We must always say 'Corbyn Labour' because this is a different entity to previous Labour and disliked by just about every section of the voters from young to old , urban and rural , college and non-college , working class and middle class, English and non-English regions.. Boris will easily beat Corbyn and it is to the eternal shame of Labour members that they allow McCluskey, Milne and the other ex-Communists to run this dreadful cult depriving our country of a proper and normal opposition. The abysmal defeat of the modern Labour party now being polled leaves these Stalinist's as enemies of the people.
The only reason a delay now would make sense is if the EU were to announce "the backstop was a mistake, we are dropping it and need a few months to finalise an alternative". I don't see that being done, and it isn't necessary either because the alternative could be finalised during transition.
"the alternative could be finalised during transition"
Err, that's exactly what the sequencing has always been.
No the sequencing has us being required to agree the backstop before transition currently.
The whole point is Rayner wants students to apply for higher education courses ****after**** they receive their exam results.
This is a direct quote from Rayner's article " This means that students will apply for higher education courses after they receive their exam results"
You seem fully qualified to join Corbyn's front bench team.
These days, the interweb thingy we are using means that even the initial application can now be sent in August, just like in Clearing. This means students who do better than expected can apply for top degrees like PPE at Oxford. Then, just like in Clearing and in Ireland, the universities can make offers on the basis of actual results.
It is entirely possible to do all this with no changes to school terms or exam timetables.
"...top degrees like PPE at Oxford", LOL
Your postings betray no understanding of the situation, as Foxy, YDoethur and myself have all told you.
Rayner is not arguing that Universities make offers on the basis of results. She is arguing that students must have their A Level results before they even apply to University.
The processing of University applications by about half a million students cannot begin on or after August 15th and be completed in about a month -- unless you are proposing a massive increase in hiring Lecturers to consider all the applications.
What do you mean the interweby thing? The time is not consumed by delays in the postal service.
The time is consumed by the fact that for a course like PPE, there are ~ 250 places and many thousands of well-qualified applicants.
No, they are appallingly sexist. What is wrong with you?
See my other response. Your response was a bit over the top, but in fairness my comment was short and not explained. Hopefully my more detailed response will make you feel better about my view. I am strongly in favour of equality, but feel these are harmless bits of fun not to be taken seriously.
Do a thought experiment and reverse the genders. You may come to a different conclusion.
Comments
Flavible is much more interesting. Still for entertainment purposes only, but its calculations from the Survation poll give Con 285 Lab 217 LD 71 SNP 53 Brexit 1, which at least passes the sanity check.
Certainly I wouldn't be as confident as @DecrepitJohnL in asserting that "It is a pound to a penny the SNP on 4% will get more seats than BXP (15%) and LDs (25%) combined". It's quite plausible that the Lib Dems could top the SNP seat tally.
CON 27.0%; 39.0%
LIB 30.5%; 43.5%
LAB 10.3%; 5.3%
Plaid 5.2%; Didn't stand
UKIP 0.4%; 0.8%
Brexit 21.5%; 10.5%
Green 3.5%; Didn't stand
OTH 1.5%; 1.0% (Loony)
Brecon really doesn't bode well for the Brexit party as one can see in the above.
Now you might argue there was a two party squeeze on but going through seat by seat
Ashfield <- If Zadrozny wears the Brexit party badge they might have a chance. If he runs under another rosette I highly doubt BREX wins.
Clywd South <- Tories best placed to beat Labour
West wales target seats
Preseli Pembrokeshire <- Highly marginal, BREX might cost Crabb the seat but they won't win it.
Carmarthen West <- Similiar to Preseli
Mansfield <- Bradley is a strong leaver, again there is a squeeze message.
Boston <- Potentially, I expect the Tory vote will hold up enough to win though.
Thurrock looks the "first" seat to drop, again there is a squeeze message though.
On 15% it looks like null points for BREX to me.
And governing parties normally do worse in BEs compared to General Elections, so if you want to argue that Brecon can't be carried across I'd agree but it is to the Brexit Parties disadvantage in that case !
If he does not he will still likely lead the largest party in the Commons on today's poll and can propose 'cake for all' to his hearts content while opposing the Labour, LD and SNP government
If Boris DOES go for an extension, would the party replace him as leader and PM?
IYO.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html
As ever, pay your money take choice. I have doubts.
46% said Leave with No Deal which was more than the 29% for revoke and Remain and the 12% for extend again combined
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-august-2019/
Philadelphia and VW ads banned for gender stereotyping
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49332640
I hate to sound like a Daily Mail reader, but...
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/psephology.html
I'm a statistician not a psephologist, but it would be possible for me to understand and write-up the information available the public domain with a minimal amount of mathematical formulae, and send it in for a PB article. But that would be a huge amount of work and to be honest I have more important and more fun things to be getting on with.
The Brexit Party would likely win over 200 seats if the Tories extend again, the Tories would be lucky to get 50
It is entirely possible to do all this with no changes to school terms or exam timetables.
So it's a question of Johnson wanting to renepotiate, but not being able to do it.
Obviously, the point is that if he doesn't really want to renegotiate, but just makes demands that he knows won't be acceptable in order to prevent any renegotiation, then those figures don't apply.
That's why I said that he needs to convince people he is genuine about wanting to renegotiate. Bearing in mind always that he was foreign secretary for most of the time we were negotiating the existing deal.
I appreciate that similarly to me, you also are on the verge of resigning and are only staying in order to vote for Philip Hammond in any forthcoming leadership election so my message to you remains: hold fast! Keep pretending that you support this lot (I realise the silence option isn't viable for you) and we'll get our party back.
Hammond and his posse will stop it from happening.
Hard to imagine that.
Unless you are learning how to bake or something ...
Yeah, I know.
FPTP sucks. Completely, and for ever.
1.VII.1.A.viii When the party is in government, the Leader shall appoint the cabinet and all other front bench positions in their capacity as Prime Minister.
4.II.2.E.i When the party is in government and the Party Leader is prime minister and, for whatever reason, becomes permanently unavailable, the Cabinet shall...appoint one of its members to serve as party leader until a ballot....can be carried out.
Given a Cabinet is needed, it is unclear at what point Corbyn would be able, should the need or want arise, to declare himself permanently unavailable in the event of government formation.
A new agreement will need to be agreed unanimously including national and in some countries subnational parliaments not just QMV and the European Parliament.
And the BP poll position only matters when there's an election.
So, GE in 2020 after he gets a deal through - which he wins - that's my prediction.
Then he WILL be the Great Man.
I said - if he doesn't convince people that he genuinely wants to negotiate, the opinion poll figures about him wanting to negotiate but being unable to do so don't apply.
I hate to say this, but do you have dementia or some kind of cognitive problem? Because if you do, you need help.
The Lib dems should see it as quite a triumph that they've been part of persuading Labour to completely shift its position on brexit in just 2 years.
Corbyn has his own baggage of course. But in terms of world view, I see similarities between him and the Lib Dems on many issues like Iraq, civil liberties, house of lords reform, tuition fees etc...
No mechanism I can see for my pet theory that Corbyn might parachute in Long-Bailey.
This seems to be a recurrent problem for pollsters. Possible explanations:
1) some Leavers are harder to reach - these hard-to-reach Leavers may not be typical of other Leavers, making the poll findings a bit suspect.
2) some erstwhile Leavers are forgetting how they voted. This means that the Remain sample needs to be looked at with suspicion.
3) some erstwhile Leavers are choosing to retrospectively redefine who they voted for. This may mean that Remain is now wrongly being downweighted.
We have to consider the possibility that the polling is understating Remain-supporting views.
Or you do but think gender stereotyping is not harmful?
Or you do, and you do, but think such ads should nevertheless be aired?
That places him exactly where May was, where he is now, and where he would be should he pursue that route.
[Um, Boris. The EU side doesn't care. It's up to the UK side in that situation to come up with a compelling counteroffer.]
We’re you around for the golden era of the French Presidential election when the rest of us failed to recognise the political reality that LePen was winning because she was winning the most French towns and the fact that the election was decided on votes was an inconsequential issue?
Even if we only include Conservatives and not their coalition supporters, it's still 197 and 36% against 165 and 30%.
Yes they are gender sterotyping
Yes I think gender sterotyping CAN be harmful
Do I think those ads are harmful - No.
They are jokes. Anyone who thinks women are inferior or only good enough to look after babies, or men inferior at looking after babies etc will think that anyway. The rest of us can have a laugh without actually believing it. It is not uncommon for us to joke in our house along those lines, but neither myself or my wife believe what we are saying.
Personally I think it's stark raving bonkers to have bureaucrats to determine such things, and a ludicrous over-reaction to ban such ads, not to mention a disgraceful breach of free speech, but there we go.
But I find it really disturbing when people are involved in arguments on the Internet, and they're essentially talking gibberish. There is a lot of dementia about in our society, and no doubt a lot of people with dementia still use the Internet. Now it may just mean they are ignoring what's been said and just spouting propaganda. But maybe it means they genuinely don't understand what the other person has said. It's a problem. Probably 90% of the time, if it is dementia, there's no practicable way of finding out who they are and how they might be helped. One can only hope someone is already aware. But of course that's not always the case.
Err, that's exactly what the sequencing has always been.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.148087688
Your postings betray no understanding of the situation, as Foxy, YDoethur and myself have all told you.
Rayner is not arguing that Universities make offers on the basis of results. She is arguing that students must have their A Level results before they even apply to University.
The processing of University applications by about half a million students cannot begin on or after August 15th and be completed in about a month -- unless you are proposing a massive increase in hiring Lecturers to consider all the applications.
What do you mean the interweby thing? The time is not consumed by delays in the postal service.
The time is consumed by the fact that for a course like PPE, there are ~ 250 places and many thousands of well-qualified applicants.
Prolly just a reaction to a new article:
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/donald-trump-presidency-betting---democrats-are-heading-towards-impeachment-140819-171.html
Not a very liquid market atm so doesn't take much.
I still cannot believe they left Trent Bridge off the list. Mad decision.