How can the finances of something that the Government isn't paying for be the Government's concern?
Whose money is it ? Is Heathrow 3 definitely, definitely going ahead ? When is the first spade due in the ground on it ? Are there legal challenges against it and whats it cost thus far to the taxpayer ?
Heathrow will be paying for the expension of Heathrow - it's a private company who is currently investing the money and taking the risk
It looks like the responses from the LDs here since that post (not scientific), that my gut is not doing a bad job.
True.
As a different way of approaching the question, to take individual voting intentions out of it -
The morning after this Oct 'Brexit' election, which of the 2 realistic PM outcomes would PB LDs most like (or least hate) to see - PM Johnson or PM Corbyn?
That is an excellent question. It is also relevant that I do not sit in a LAB/CON marginal so I can't judge what I would do objectively.
And here is the rub answering your question: I really strongly object to both as PM. I'm not sure that has ever happened to me before.
Sorry that answer was useless. Hopefully others can do better
So I wouldn't call myself a lib dem although I am currently voting for them. Was a life long Tory but currently disappear at this government.
If a gun was to my head then I would still take Johnson over Corbyn.
While Johnson's current Brexit policy will be a disaster, I don't think Corbyns would be too different. He is desperate to leave the EU as well. But ontop of that his policies would be a death blow to the economy from small companies to the banking sector. Worst case scenario is No Deal Brexit followed by Corbyn becoming PM.
To coin a phrase, Corbyn will always be disaffected Tories' backstop. Whatever the hell Johnson does it will not be as cataclysmic as a Corbyn government but yes, would need a gun to the head. Or a general election, obvs.
Good for Johnson, but something for everyone there I suppose.
Not for the SNP stuck on 4 per cent. Pollsters should think about how best to present national results. It is a pound to a penny the SNP on 4% will get more seats than BXP (15%) and LDs (25%) combined.
I commented forth down the threat that you could put me down as a possible and I do live in a Con/Lab marginal. Made easier because the current MP is pro-EU
Wahay! Things are moving in the right direction.
My 'like' was not because I necessarily agreed but because you made me laugh.
Going by my posts today I appear incapable of agreeing to anything.
Just like ex-pat leavers with no deal, ex-pats have the luxury of seeking to impose Jeremy Corbyn upon us without ever needing to experience it in real life.
I of course respect @edmundintokyo's view but the general point still stands.
Also true, although it's not really clear who comes out as PM from any Lab performance short of Lab maj.
I think Lab rule as a minority and dare the others to bring them down ?
It looks like the responses from the LDs here since that post (not scientific), that my gut is not doing a bad job.
True.
As a different way of approaching the question, to take individual voting intentions out of it -
The morning after this Oct 'Brexit' election, which of the 2 realistic PM outcomes would PB LDs most like (or least hate) to see - PM Johnson or PM Corbyn?
Hard to differentiate between two equally illiberal, economically catastrophic and fundamentally unBritish disasters.
But I'd happily settle for the option far likelier than either. That on the morning after an election Labour led by Corbyn emerges with most seats, but short of a majority over Tory+DUP+one or two (if any) BrexitParty members. So Swanson & Sturgeon offer support for Labour - if & only if Corbyn resigns.
Whether that leads to a GNU or a nominally Labour (under, say, Starmer) government is secondary.
It looks like the responses from the LDs here since that post (not scientific), that my gut is not doing a bad job.
True.
As a different way of approaching the question, to take individual voting intentions out of it -
The morning after this Oct 'Brexit' election, which of the 2 realistic PM outcomes would PB LDs most like (or least hate) to see - PM Johnson or PM Corbyn?
Hard to differentiate between two equally illiberal, economically catastrophic and fundamentally unBritish disasters.
But I'd happily settle for the option far likelier than either. That on the morning after an election Labour led by Corbyn emerges with most seats, but short of a majority over Tory+DUP+one or two (if any) BrexitParty members. So Swanson & Sturgeon offer support for Labour - if & only if Corbyn resigns.
Whether that leads to a GNU or a nominally Labour (under, say, Starmer) government is secondary.
Corbyn has the hide of a rhino, he won't resign just because Swinson has asked nicely.
I think Lab rule as a minority and dare the others to bring them down ?
That sounds plausible. I guess it leaves him in office but very limited in his ability to set fire to things, No Deal Brexit excepted.
Difficult to govern as a minority when you have less than 200 seats...
Difficult to see anything other than PM Boris if Labour are on less than 200. A 25% swing is needed for the Lib Dems to take 12 seats off Labour.
If the LibDems are 20%+ then they will get 25% swings.
I think they are likely to win 80-100 seats on those figures, with Con largest party and Lab ~220 so potentially ungovernable.
Sure, Lab 220 could in extremis work. Labour sub 200 means the Tories petty much must have taken seats off them though. I think there is a big difference between Lab 220 and Lab sub 200.
With all this, it is kinda important to recall that the last three GEs have produced results which weren't expected. Doesn't mean this one will of course. But, important to keep in mind. The electorate is extraordinarily volatile at the moment. We've had FOUR different parties leading the polls in the last few months...
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Day's gym visit over successfully, chores done, but sadly no cricket to watch. Although it's stopped raining in this part of the Colchester area, but doesn't look as though it will for long. What a depressing August this has become! In all sorts of ways, both general and personal.
Listening to R4 this morning, apart from anything else, Hammond nailed the preparations issue. ie if we are "now" much better prepared for no deal (eg Wolfson yesterday) how could Hammond, chancellor until three weeks ago, not have made preparations..
I wish Humphries had picked up IDS on this as he (IDS) a few minutes later charged Hammond with making no preparations.
Yes, it was a very good interview indeed and that particular answer of Hammond's was an absolute zinger. He really is very impressive.
Old Spreadsheet is impressive. Got to Oxford from a state school, went into real businesses doing real stuff, solid record in a range of government departments, kept the economy working as Chancellor, hardly a Europhile by any sane measure. He ought to be the ideal leader for a certain sort of "common sense" Tory...
... and he's on the scrapheap because he won't bow to the Brexit gods without questioning them a bit. It's madness.
"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."
I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.
I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.
The only seat in Wales where it might benefit the Liberal Democrats is Montgomeryshire, which could be very tight with Glyn Davies retiring and where the very small numbers of voters the Greens and Plaid offer might be decisive. There is practically no evidence it helped in Brecon and Radnor.
There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.
I think the Plaid Cymru vote is 1/3 Leave, 2/3 Remain. So, this alliance will lose some Plaid Cymru voters.
The LibDem vote is 100 per cent Remain, so the problem does not occur for them.
That's one problem. The other problem is that people are assuming that just because the party leadership has endorsed another candidate, that means their voters will slavishly follow. This is a very bold assumption. In the case of Wales for a number of reasons it is a totally ludicrous assumption. If you were a Liberal Democrat and willing to vote for a Plaid candidate to take a seat off say Labour - and Ynys Môn is the only seat where this might apply - you will already be doing it. If not, no amount of havering from Jane Dodds will change your mind.
I agree with that. The failure of UKIP voters to switch en masse to the Tories in 2017 confirms my sense that voters will decline to be moved around like chessboard pieces.
Andrew Yang's implied odds for the presidency are absolubtely crazily low. He is around 4-7
People with money to bet take a serious interest in politics and think deeply about the solutions to current problems, and identify problems coming down the tracks. So does Yang. Therefore those who bet like him. Unfortunately, most ordinary voters don't do that.
Johnson's ramping up of no deal seems to be having an effect - public support for it is falling away.
"Preferred outcome" is an interesting term. Shows how important the wording of the question is. And, possibly that support for No Deal as a tactic is substantial. But, not as a strategy.
Johnson's ramping up of no deal seems to be having an effect - public support for it is falling away.
It is self-evident that most people would "want" a deal. It is the nature of the deal and the circumstances in which that deal is offered that matters.
48% want to leave the EU. That is something you haven't seen particularly highlighted on this thread.
To coin a phrase, Corbyn will always be disaffected Tories' backstop. Whatever the hell Johnson does it will not be as cataclysmic as a Corbyn government but yes, would need a gun to the head. Or a general election, obvs.
But you are a Con not a Lib Dem.
To ask you to tactically vote Lab would be like asking the pub landlord to open the bottle of Peroni you've just brought in from Asda - cheeky.
What can be asked of you* is that you vote Lib Dem in seats where they have a chance.
* Not you personally, necessarily - your ilk. Con Remainers.
Andrew Yang's implied odds for the presidency are absolubtely crazily low. He is around 4-7
People with money to bet take a serious interest in politics and think deeply about the solutions to current problems, and identify problems coming down the tracks. So does Yang. Therefore those who bet like him. Unfortunately, most ordinary voters don't do that.
I know his pitch, but why are his implied odds for the presidency so crazily low ?
"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."
I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.
I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.
The only seat in Wales where it might benefit the Liberal Democrats is Montgomeryshire, which could be very tight with Glyn Davies retiring and where the very small numbers of voters the Greens and Plaid offer might be decisive. There is practically no evidence it helped in Brecon and Radnor.
There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.
I think the Plaid Cymru vote is 1/3 Leave, 2/3 Remain. So, this alliance will lose some Plaid Cymru voters.
The LibDem vote is 100 per cent Remain, so the problem does not occur for them.
That's one problem. The other problem is that people are assuming that just because the party leadership has endorsed another candidate, that means their voters will slavishly follow. This is a very bold assumption. In the case of Wales for a number of reasons it is a totally ludicrous assumption. If you were a Liberal Democrat and willing to vote for a Plaid candidate to take a seat off say Labour - and Ynys Môn is the only seat where this might apply - you will already be doing it. If not, no amount of havering from Jane Dodds will change your mind.
I agree with that. The failure of UKIP voters to switch en masse to the Tories in 2017 confirms my sense that voters will decline to be moved around like chessboard pieces.
Actually 60% of 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory in 2017, 18% stuck with UKIP and 16% voted Corbyn Labour
It looks like the responses from the LDs here since that post (not scientific), that my gut is not doing a bad job.
As a different way of approaching the question, to take individual voting intentions out of it - The morning after this Oct 'Brexit' election, which of the 2 realistic PM outcomes would PB LDs most like (or least hate) to see - PM Johnson or PM Corbyn?
That is an excellent question. It is also relevant that I do not sit in a LAB/CON marginal so I can't judge what I would do objectively. And here is the rub answering your question: I really strongly object to both as PM. I'm not sure that has ever happened to me before.
Sorry that answer was useless. Hopefully others can do better
On the contrary, Mr KJH, it was a very reasonable response. To vote for a Tory or a Labour candidate is to give support to their respective party leaders. You are saying that I should give my support to an untrustworthy, lazy, cheating, knavish, irresponsible fanatic (PB can apply these epithets to the party leader of their choice) who seems set on taking this country increasingly into a dictatorship. I very strongly object to both as well.
Johnson's ramping up of no deal seems to be having an effect - public support for it is falling away.
It is self-evident that most people would "want" a deal. It is the nature of the deal and the circumstances in which that deal is offered that matters.
48% want to leave the EU. That is something you haven't seen particularly highlighted on this thread.
Your first paragraph refutes your second. If it's self-evident that most people would "want" a deal, you can't deduce that these people "want" to leave the EU. They may just desire a quiet life.
The fingerprints of over 1 million people, as well as facial recognition information, unencrypted usernames and passwords, and personal information of employees, was discovered on a publicly accessible database for a company used by the likes of the UK Metropolitan police, defence contractors and banks.
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Day's gym visit over successfully, chores done, but sadly no cricket to watch. Although it's stopped raining in this part of the Colchester area, but doesn't look as though it will for long. What a depressing August this has become! In all sorts of ways, both general and personal.
Yesterday on here there was very serious debate as to whether there was appetite in Colchester for independence. Of Colchester, that is.
I poo poo'd the notion, but happy to be corrected by somebody close to it.
What you call "royally bugger up" can be phrased as "part of the reorganisation". The school year starting in August is not the only option if you want exams in late April. If implemented, this would have to be a major resutructure to A-Levels and Unis, and could not be brought in quickly.
So what other options are there?
At the moment, the A-levels start in the last full week of May. They are released mid-way through August. That's a time frame of around 12 weeks. Not too much for sitting, returning, scanning, standardising (although if my experience of incorrectly marked seeds is anything to go by that stage has become a farce) marking, checking, collating, and issuing.
For them to be released in April they would therefore have to be done from around the second week of January. That immediately pulls everything back by four months. Moreover, for a number of practical reasons (basically to do with the availability of invigilators, markers and rooms) GCSEs would have to be moved as well.
Therefore the school year would need to be radically reorganised:
1) Probably start at the start of May, with a five week break from the end of March to the end of April.
2) two week Holidays in June/start of July, end of August. October and December, creating a five term year instead of three/six.
3) probably overall slightly more non-teaching weeks, up from around 12 to maybe 13.
And leaving unanswered one very important question:
Which unfortunate exam year is going to have their teaching time for life-defining exams cut in half?
In Germany the abitur exams are marked by the teachers within 3 weeks. There is then a programme for schools to cross-check the standard of marking with each other, which doesn't take long.
In paralell the pupils have examined presentations, oral exams and kind of viva, if the pupil is close to a borderline. This year in Berlin the whole abitur testing started this at the start of April and the pupils had their final results in mid May.
If the desire is there to get the results out, it can be done much quicker than in 12 weeks.
Assuming an Oct GE and that Labour DO have Ref2 as a manifesto commitment.
And that you live in a Lab/Con marginal, LDs not a chance.
Do you vote Labour?
I am in almost exactly that position (the seat was marginal after 2015 but Labour won heavily in 2017). I'll be voting Labour. If you want to stop a no deal brexit you simply have to vote for whoever can reduce the number of tories in Parliament to stop Boris governing.
Johnson's ramping up of no deal seems to be having an effect - public support for it is falling away.
It is self-evident that most people would "want" a deal. It is the nature of the deal and the circumstances in which that deal is offered that matters.
48% want to leave the EU. That is something you haven't seen particularly highlighted on this thread.
48% accept leaving the EU, which is slightly different. There is undoubtedly a Soft Brexit majority in the country and a Soft Brexit could also get through the Commons.
To coin a phrase, Corbyn will always be disaffected Tories' backstop. Whatever the hell Johnson does it will not be as cataclysmic as a Corbyn government but yes, would need a gun to the head. Or a general election, obvs.
Johnson is PM, that feels like a gun to the head already....
I will probably vote LibDem rather than try to elect the human-sized piece of vacuum known as Corbyn.
Is this today's equivalent of the Jimmy Young Show during the Thatcher era?
Didn't catch it, but the comments seem mostly positive (Whether they've been "cleaned", I have no idea), including from those with the BREX logo in their Facebook profile.
Andrew Yang's implied odds for the presidency are absolubtely crazily low. He is around 4-7
People with money to bet take a serious interest in politics and think deeply about the solutions to current problems, and identify problems coming down the tracks. So does Yang. Therefore those who bet like him. Unfortunately, most ordinary voters don't do that.
I know his pitch, but why are his implied odds for the presidency so crazily low ?
Supply and demand. Most of the prices are driven by genuine assessments of odds by experienced punters (who can absorb some "irrational" bets from fans). But Yang's price is driven more by the fanboys - serious punters will be on their max lay - and the fanboy demand is greater in the President market.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
"Whiskas. 8 out of 10 owners said their cats preferred it".
Does this mean that 80% of cats want Whiskas? Not really.
But I have a question for you, the answer to guide my betting -
The Great Man - PM BJohnson - "Boris" -
If he were to announce at the crunch that he wants a 3 to 6 month extension in order to tie up a new Brexit deal with the EU, would the party replace him as leader and PM?
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Brexit Party forecast to gain Ashfield, Boston and Skegness, Clywd South, West Carmathen and Pembrokeshire, Mansfield and Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I believe the site breaks down how it calculates but looks like the Brexit Party is forecast to have as many Welsh MPs as Plaid
Johnson's ramping up of no deal seems to be having an effect - public support for it is falling away.
It is self-evident that most people would "want" a deal. It is the nature of the deal and the circumstances in which that deal is offered that matters.
48% want to leave the EU. That is something you haven't seen particularly highlighted on this thread.
48% accept leaving the EU, which is slightly different. There is undoubtedly a Soft Brexit majority in the country and a Soft Brexit could also get through the Commons.
I think it would be touch and go, whether a soft Brexit could make it through the commons.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
I think Lab rule as a minority and dare the others to bring them down ?
That sounds plausible. I guess it leaves him in office but very limited in his ability to set fire to things, No Deal Brexit excepted.
Difficult to govern as a minority when you have less than 200 seats...
Difficult to see anything other than PM Boris if Labour are on less than 200. A 25% swing is needed for the Lib Dems to take 12 seats off Labour.
If the LibDems are 20%+ then they will get 25% swings.
I think they are likely to win 80-100 seats on those figures, with Con largest party and Lab ~220 so potentially ungovernable.
Sure, Lab 220 could in extremis work. Labour sub 200 means the Tories petty much must have taken seats off them though. I think there is a big difference between Lab 220 and Lab sub 200.
Lab sub 200 implies Con majority at the moment, as LDs unlikely to exceed 80-100 seats at the top end.
But if you think a 3-4% movement in any of the top three parties is possible (or the polling is wrong), I think you could imagine it.
8% accept leaving the EU, which is slightly different. There is undoubtedly a Soft Brexit majority in the country and a Soft Brexit could also get through the Commons.
I think Theresa could have won an election on it, on her deal.
Bet she wanted to and was told by the party to go whistle.
And at the same time, from the same figures, only 19% want a complete break with the EU, while 72% want some kind of continuing relationship.
If the Tories-UKIP-Brexit Ltd are getting support from only 19% of the electorate, it looks as though the ABDPJohnson strategy, so frequently propagated here on PH by our friend HY, is simply not going to work.
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
Just looking at the Brecon & Radnor 2016 Assembly result. The recent Parliamentary by election actually represents a swing of 11.75% from LibDem to Con compared with the 2016 election!
Is this today's equivalent of the Jimmy Young Show during the Thatcher era?
Jimmy Young show used to get a live audience of 5 million. What did the Spiv get this morning?
Those wanting to tell me how many UK Facebook subscribers there are instead of answering the question might bear in mind that the most popular show on Netlix UK (all editions of Friends combined) gets just 2.4% of its less-than stellar 11.5 mn subscribers
Ok this is my gut talking again (been doing a lot of that today!), but how does Brexit get 6?
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Brexit Party forecast to gain Ashfield, Boston and Skegness, Clywd South, West Carmathen and Pembrokeshire, Mansfield and Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I believe the site breaks down how it calculates but looks like the Brexit Party is forecast to have as many Welsh MPs as Plaid
I could see those on the site, but I don't know 'why'.
I would love to know what they do. I would be interested in the maths and the assumptions and compare to other methodologies.
I have never looked at this.
I assume we have experts on the site who could write a thread.
I am in almost exactly that position (the seat was marginal after 2015 but Labour won heavily in 2017). I'll be voting Labour. If you want to stop a no deal brexit you simply have to vote for whoever can reduce the number of tories in Parliament to stop Boris governing.
Another correct answer! We are on a roll now.
Starting to like that 12 for Labour majority.
It covers a long-dated next election with Corbyn gone, remember.
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Day's gym visit over successfully, chores done, but sadly no cricket to watch. Although it's stopped raining in this part of the Colchester area, but doesn't look as though it will for long. What a depressing August this has become! In all sorts of ways, both general and personal.
Yesterday on here there was very serious debate as to whether there was appetite in Colchester for independence. Of Colchester, that is.
I poo poo'd the notion, but happy to be corrected by somebody close to it.
Or more than close to it - in it.
I suspect that some in Colchester would quite like the Romans back. However the only place in Essex with a significant independence movement is my one-time stamping ground, Canvey Island, where the CIIP controls the Town Council.
Yes, the Boris/Cummings plan to soften up the public for No Deal (if that's what it was) looks to be bombing. Is it because the more people understand No Deal the more it horrifies them, or are they instinctively wary about anything Boris appears keen on?
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
Assuming an Oct GE and that Labour DO have Ref2 as a manifesto commitment.
And that you live in a Lab/Con marginal, LDs not a chance.
Do you vote Labour?
This is indeed one of the crucial questions.
Another is: what is the path to ref 2 that does not involve Corbyn becoming PM? I see only two ways for that to happen and both look unlikely: 1. Lib dems win more seats/poach more sitting MPs than Labour 2. Labour somehow ditch Corbyn, either between now and next GE, or after a GE result.
Is this today's equivalent of the Jimmy Young Show during the Thatcher era?
Didn't catch it, but the comments seem mostly positive (Whether they've been "cleaned", I have no idea), including from those with the BREX logo in their Facebook profile.
And no, they are not all from Tory HQ.
I think the point about the Jimmy Young show was that the interviewing wasn't considered - shall we say? - among the most forensically rigorous, as political interviewing went.
But of course I may be completely wrong about the quality of the comments, including those with a BREX logo, not all from Tory HQ.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Wrong. The full results are:
Remain: 51% Leave: 42% Don't know: 6% Refused: 1%
Only 43% have a first choice Remain, 29% have a first choice Brexit with a Deal, 19% have a first choice of Brexit with No Deal and most voters second choice is Brexit with a Deal
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Just out of interest, do you really think that leaving the EU is the best thing for the Tory party's prospects of winning future elections? Remainers are clearly now in the majority and that trajectory may well continue. And while keeping the base happy isn't unimportant, being associated with leave isn't going to help win over floaters.
"Whiskas. 8 out of 10 owners said their cats preferred it".
Does this mean that 80% of cats want Whiskas? Not really.
But I have a question for you, the answer to guide my betting -
The Great Man - PM BJohnson - "Boris" -
If he were to announce at the crunch that he wants a 3 to 6 month extension in order to tie up a new Brexit deal with the EU, would the party replace him as leader and PM?
If you ask about extending further then as Opinium showed last weekend No Deal is preferred to extend further or Remain combined
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Just out of interest, do you really think that leaving the EU is the best thing for the Tory party's prospects of winning future elections? Remainers are clearly now in the majority and that trajectory may well continue. And while keeping the base happy isn't unimportant, being associated with leave isn't going to help win over floaters.
Given the Tories would be obliterated if they extend again by the Brexit Party as they were in the European Parliament elections, given the Tories have a 4% lead over Labour with Boris today with Survation ie more than in 2017, given only 43% of voters are committed to Remain, what an absurd question
Just looking at the Brecon & Radnor 2016 Assembly result. The recent Parliamentary by election actually represents a swing of 11.75% from LibDem to Con compared with the 2016 election!
Because Kirsty Williams was the candidate and like Glyn Davies in Mont she has a huge personal vote.
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Well then, Johnson needs to convince people he is genuinely willing to negotiate. It would be fatal for him simply to stonewall and delay with the idea of leaving without a deal.
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
Just looking at the Brecon & Radnor 2016 Assembly result. The recent Parliamentary by election actually represents a swing of 11.75% from LibDem to Con compared with the 2016 election!
Because Kirsty Williams was the candidate and like Glyn Davies in Mont she has a huge personal vote.
Did someone post that Glyn Davies is retiring next time?
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
Wrong. The full results are:
Remain: 51% Leave: 42% Don't know: 6% Refused: 1%
Only 43% have a first choice Remain, 29% have a first choice Brexit with a Deal, 19% have a first choice of Brexit with No Deal and most voters second choice is Brexit with a Deal
You're just ignoring those questions where you don't like the answers. You're entitled to your opinions, you're not entitled to your facts. See Qs 6, 7 and 8.
They aren't as 21% are Don't Know, more still support some form of Brexit than are diehard Remainers, only 43% are committed to Remain in all circumstances
You support deal or no deal Brexit. I support deal Brexit or Remain. I oppose no deal Brexit. Does that make me pro Brexit or pro Remain?
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
I am in almost exactly that position (the seat was marginal after 2015 but Labour won heavily in 2017). I'll be voting Labour. If you want to stop a no deal brexit you simply have to vote for whoever can reduce the number of tories in Parliament to stop Boris governing.
Another correct answer! We are on a roll now.
Starting to like that 12 for Labour majority.
It covers a long-dated next election with Corbyn gone, remember.
Naughty - there is a bit of electioneering going on there with that last sentence. You are trying to get people like me off the fence aren't you?
Well, I'm sorry, but I voted Remain, but I think it's fair to honour the outcome of the referendum, provided there is a sensible deal.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
I backed Brexit with a Deal and that is still my preferred outcome and that of most voters including second preferences
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Well then, Johnson needs to convince people he is genuinely willing to negotiate. It would be fatal for him simply to stonewall and delay with the idea of leaving without a deal.
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
Quite. There's no comfort for HYUFD and the "do or die" strategy from numbers suggesting people would accept a deal if the government is not willing to accept a deal, and has boxed itself into a corner where it cannot accept a deal without its own supporters crying betrayal.
Just looking at the Brecon & Radnor 2016 Assembly result. The recent Parliamentary by election actually represents a swing of 11.75% from LibDem to Con compared with the 2016 election!
Because Kirsty Williams was the candidate and like Glyn Davies in Mont she has a huge personal vote.
Did someone post that Glyn Davies is retiring next time?
Comments
Edit : Con +5, Lab -5, LD +2, BREX -5
Well, not much for Corbyn or Farage !
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1161592121553555457?s=21
Going by my posts today I appear incapable of agreeing to anything.
Shame in some ways.
But I'd happily settle for the option far likelier than either. That on the morning after an election Labour led by Corbyn emerges with most seats, but short of a majority over Tory+DUP+one or two (if any) BrexitParty members. So Swanson & Sturgeon offer support for Labour - if & only if Corbyn resigns.
Whether that leads to a GNU or a nominally Labour (under, say, Starmer) government is secondary.
I think they are likely to win 80-100 seats on those figures, with Con largest party and Lab ~220 so potentially ungovernable.
Why go on Channel 4 or the Beeb when you don't have to, and can use facebook/twitter instead?
When presented with 2 things both of which they find deeply unpleasant, people often struggle to choose which one they 'prefer'.
I think there's a name for it, but I can't quite recall what it is.
But, important to keep in mind.
The electorate is extraordinarily volatile at the moment. We've had FOUR different parties leading the polls in the last few months...
What a depressing August this has become! In all sorts of ways, both general and personal.
... and he's on the scrapheap because he won't bow to the Brexit gods without questioning them a bit. It's madness.
Just as in the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/14/labour-scrap-predicted-grades-university-admissions-fairer
The whole point is Rayner wants students to apply for higher education courses ****after**** they receive their exam results.
This is a direct quote from Rayner's article " This means that students will apply for higher education courses after they receive their exam results"
You seem fully qualified to join Corbyn's front bench team.
Unfortunately, most ordinary voters don't do that.
So the discussion is not relevant.
And, possibly that support for No Deal as a tactic is substantial. But, not as a strategy.
48% want to leave the EU. That is something you haven't seen particularly highlighted on this thread.
To ask you to tactically vote Lab would be like asking the pub landlord to open the bottle of Peroni you've just brought in from Asda - cheeky.
What can be asked of you* is that you vote Lib Dem in seats where they have a chance.
* Not you personally, necessarily - your ilk. Con Remainers.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election
LDs now closer to Corbyn Labour than Corbyn Labour is to the Tories with Survation too
The fingerprints of over 1 million people, as well as facial recognition information, unencrypted usernames and passwords, and personal information of employees, was discovered on a publicly accessible database for a company used by the likes of the UK Metropolitan police, defence contractors and banks.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/aug/14/major-breach-found-in-biometrics-system-used-by-banks-uk-police-and-defence-firms
I poo poo'd the notion, but happy to be corrected by somebody close to it.
Or more than close to it - in it.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=28&LAB=24&LIB=21&Brexit=15&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
In paralell the pupils have examined presentations, oral exams and kind of viva, if the pupil is close to a borderline. This year in Berlin the whole abitur testing started this at the start of April and the pupils had their final results in mid May.
If the desire is there to get the results out, it can be done much quicker than in 12 weeks.
https://www.survation.com/general-election-voting-intention-and-brexit-preferences-poll/
I will probably vote LibDem rather than try to elect the human-sized piece of vacuum known as Corbyn.
And no, they are not all from Tory HQ.
Can you give me/us an in detail breakdown of how the calculus works HYUFD? A thread on it would be really interesting. Is it just UNS and if so from when, etc, etc.
It would be really fascinating.
Also alternative models.
Does this mean that 80% of cats want Whiskas? Not really.
But I have a question for you, the answer to guide my betting -
The Great Man - PM BJohnson - "Boris" -
If he were to announce at the crunch that he wants a 3 to 6 month extension in order to tie up a new Brexit deal with the EU, would the party replace him as leader and PM?
I believe the site breaks down how it calculates but looks like the Brexit Party is forecast to have as many Welsh MPs as Plaid
Remain: 51%
Leave: 42%
Don't know: 6%
Refused: 1%
But if you think a 3-4% movement in any of the top three parties is possible (or the polling is wrong), I think you could imagine it.
Bet she wanted to and was told by the party to go whistle.
If the Tories-UKIP-Brexit Ltd are getting support from only 19% of the electorate, it looks as though the ABDPJohnson strategy, so frequently propagated here on PH by our friend HY, is simply not going to work.
So that 48% figure includes people like me.
What I will absolutely not support is the lunatic No Deal policy. And indeed, only 19% (down from 25%) support that, according to this poll.
That makes a nonsense of the line you have been pushing, with your dozens of posts every hour here. You've been telling us support for No Deal is so high that if only Johnson could unite all the people backing it, he would win a majority in a general election. You know he couldn't win a majority on 19% of the vote, for God's sake!
Try to get back into touch with reality. And try to understand this isn't some silly game. If we leave with No Deal, that is going to decimate people's lives. That is going to kill people.
As I'm sure others have told you, you can't get less than zero on the Kelvin scale. Not in this universe, anyway.
Those wanting to tell me how many UK Facebook subscribers there are instead of answering the question might bear in mind that the most popular show on Netlix UK (all editions of Friends combined) gets just 2.4% of its less-than stellar 11.5 mn subscribers
Personally, if there was a "Revoke A50" button that actually worked, I would press in a heartbeat and consequences be d*mned.
I would love to know what they do. I would be interested in the maths and the assumptions and compare to other methodologies.
I have never looked at this.
I assume we have experts on the site who could write a thread.
Another correct answer! We are on a roll now.
Starting to like that 12 for Labour majority.
It covers a long-dated next election with Corbyn gone, remember.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1161595663974580225?s=20
However I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain to respect the Leave vote
Another is: what is the path to ref 2 that does not involve Corbyn becoming PM?
I see only two ways for that to happen and both look unlikely:
1. Lib dems win more seats/poach more sitting MPs than Labour
2. Labour somehow ditch Corbyn, either between now and next GE, or after a GE result.
But of course I may be completely wrong about the quality of the comments, including those with a BREX logo, not all from Tory HQ.
OK. Are there any internal Labour party rules that prevent a Labour figure other than the leader becoming PM?
And if Philip Hammond suggests he is not, in good faith, willing to negotiate, that could be a very damaging argument - as far as the 29% who want to leave with a deal - are concerned.
What right have you got to appropriate my support for deal Brexit for “Brexit in all circumstances”?
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/local-hubs/mid-wales/2019/07/20/tories-chose-next-prospective-parliamentary-candidate-for-montgomershire/