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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Far

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  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,310

    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Did they? Which of the Leave campaigners talking about the ease of making a deal would have given voters that impression? And remember that leaving without a deal is not the end of the process -- we will still have to make deals, lots of them.
    All irrelevant. The question was leave or remain. Then the negotiations can start. But it was a simple question.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,848
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Did they? Which of the Leave campaigners talking about the ease of making a deal would have given voters that impression? And remember that leaving without a deal is not the end of the process -- we will still have to make deals, lots of them.
    All irrelevant. The question was leave or remain. Then the negotiations can start. But it was a simple question.
    Bait and switch more like.
    Leave never published a plan, which is why they shit themselves the morning after the ref.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,310

    The 2017 election supersedes the referendum.

    At that election, a majority of the electorate voted to leave with a deal.

    What’s more, everytime the public have had a chance to vote on No Deal, they have declined the opp. As has Parliament.

    No one won the 2017 general election so the manifesto commitments were rendered moot.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    There is no mandate for No Deal. The referendum was won on the basis that there would be a deal. That was the expectation of the government when Article 50 was put into law and of pretty much the vast majority of the MPs voting for it.

    The government’s manifesto very clearly said that it was aiming for a deal and an orderly withdrawal.

    Now, all of a sudden, because of an internal party vote, the government’s key and most important policy - one with enormous and long-lasting consequences for the country - is being changed on a whim without the consent of the voters or Parliament to something that was not in the manifesto and was not on offer at the time of the referendum, however often Raab tries to lie about this.

    It is doing this because it is scared of a party which has won no seats in the British Parliament.

    Mandate, my arse!

    We have this debate over and over again

    The people told Parliament to leave.

    We may think - probably correctly - that it was in expectation of a deal, but that was t the instruction that the government was given

    The executive negotiated a deal. Not everyone liked it, but they fulfilled their obligation

    Parliament, in its great wisdom, first made leaving a matter of law, the votes against the negotiated deal and have solidly and consistently refused to back an alternative.

    Unless and until they do then we leave with or without a deal
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Off topic again, ForSec Dominic Raab says we haven't changed the Hunt-as-ForSec policy of trying to get pan-European cooperation on Gulf shipping security. It's just that, well, HMS Montrose and HMS Duncan are going to join up with the US fifth fleet to do convoy protection, just for a bit, y'know, just until Germany has built some boats.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,310

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Did they? Which of the Leave campaigners talking about the ease of making a deal would have given voters that impression? And remember that leaving without a deal is not the end of the process -- we will still have to make deals, lots of them.
    All irrelevant. The question was leave or remain. Then the negotiations can start. But it was a simple question.
    Bait and switch more like.
    Leave never published a plan, which is why they shit themselves the morning after the ref.
    That's as maybe but the people spoke.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Thanks Topping. As you know I favour neither a No Deal nor a Boris Premiership but I understand they have always been possible consequences of my decisions. But in the same way I have absolutely no time for those who claim the only proper Brexit is No Deal.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    The 2017 election supersedes the referendum.

    At that election, a majority of the electorate voted to leave with a deal.

    They also voted for a badly-hung parliament, or well-hung parliament, according to your point of view, and one which on EU membership is seriously unable to make up its mind. It has since received a petition signed by 6M to Revoke and a petition signed by 0.6M for No Deal. (Spot the position of the decimal point.) Also pro-EU people I know are very enthusiastic about revoking or re-voting whilst the anti-EU people I know are 'fed up with Brexit', i.e. the process, & some of them couldn't care less if we leave or stay.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970

    This is interesting. Seem that Boris has deliberately killed off the chances of any further negotiations with the EU.

    David Frost, who replaced Olly Robbins as the government’s chief Europe adviser, was said to have instead sought to discuss how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October, during his recent talks with senior EU figures.

    Frost was said to have told the officials that a technological solution to the Irish border was the UK’s preferred option before admitting that “it would not be ready now for Brexit”.

    “It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan. A no deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario.”

    [...]

    “Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative,” a diplomat concluded of the discussion.

    “That message has now gone loud and clear to capitals, it was useful to hear it form horse’s mouth,” the EU source said. “Reality is sinking in.”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told

    For some time I've been commenting that though Boris and ministers talk about a better deal, there is never any detail or any notion of what a better deal might look like. It looks like we are back to square one, turning up in Brussels like David Davis to ask for the EU's menu.

    Some believe Boris and/or Dominic Cummings has a plan to crash out or not crash out or extend and blame Corbyn and win an election or something but is there really any evidence?
    The only evidence we have is what people say and what they do. Cummings wants to burn down the system. He is a revolutionary. We know that as he said so. Boris has no intention of "a better deal". We know this, as he not arranged any meetings, nor outlined any ideas.
    So. No Deal is the plan. Whether this is a bluff or not, only Boris knows. It's possible Cummings doesn't know. Heck, it's possible Boris is on a wait and see basis.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,848

    The 2017 election supersedes the referendum.

    At that election, a majority of the electorate voted to leave with a deal.

    They also voted for a badly-hung parliament, or well-hung parliament, according to your point of view, and one which on EU membership is seriously unable to make up its mind. It has since received a petition signed by 6M to Revoke and a petition signed by 0.6M for No Deal. (Spot the position of the decimal point.) Also pro-EU people I know are very enthusiastic about revoking or re-voting whilst the anti-EU people I know are 'fed up with Brexit', i.e. the process, & some of them couldn't care less if we leave or stay.
    Agree.

    As far as we can divine the mood of the country, they voted for a hung parliament in 2017 in large part to put the dampeners on Brexit.

    We need another election urgently. The current government has no mandate whatsoever for their extreme, anti-democratic policy.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,310

    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Thanks Topping. As you know I favour neither a No Deal nor a Boris Premiership but I understand they have always been possible consequences of my decisions. But in the same way I have absolutely no time for those who claim the only proper Brexit is No Deal.
    My ire is reserved for those leavers, some I hate to say it on PB, who are outraged or surprised that we might be heading to no deal.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:



    Surely when the facts change (or more details become available) it’s valid to change your opinion?

    Nothing has changed. Everyone knew at the 2017 election that a No Deal Brexit was a possibility. And yet they still put a commitment to honouring the result in their personal manifestoes and went all over the media spreading that message.

    Those claiming that a No Deal Brexit does not have a mandate are just as much fanatics as the ERG loons claiming that a BINO was not a proper Brexit and was not what people voted for. Both are projecting their own opinions onto the electorate with no basis in fact.
    Well I for one never saw a single manifesto pushing no deal, my MP Fysh was claiming that we would never leave EFTA/EEA before the referendum and never mentioned no deal as a destination. We were told we hold all the cards, it was the easiest deal in history, blah blah blah. now I only watch news 18 hours a day but if you can show me where anyone claimed no deal was a likely destination, from a positive view I’d be interested.
    But you are a self proclaimed fanatical Remainer. So it is not your opinion we are discussing here but that of those who voted Leave.
    Can you provide the evidence to back up your claim that it was clear in 2017 that no deal was a real possibility? Yes I’m a proud, fanatical, die hard remainer who’s view is as relevant as yours. We are in the middle of the biggest con job ever launched on the UK with no real mechanism to expose it.
    Well no in this argument my view is far more relevantvthan yours because the vlaim being argued is that people like me who favoured a soft Brexit have now changed their minds because a No Desl is in prospect. You fanatics on either side of the argument don't figure in those calculations.
    So no evidence, can we have a list of economic benefits for the NE of England when we leave with no Deal?
    Unsurprisingly you have a very selective memory. The hardliners in the Tory party were already causing trouble for May before the 2017 election and there was lots of debate on here about whether she would use an expected larger majority to force through a softer Brexit. So yes, a No Deal was considered a real possibility then.

    And why should I list the economic benefits when it is not my preferred choice and my choices have never been driven by economics? You are doing well both rewriting history and using Straw Man arguments.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    If I ever get back to employable I'll have less competition for the min wage job I'll be after.

    But heh - You wouldn't need to worry about that.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:



    Surely when the facts change (or more details become available) it’s valid to change your opinion?

    Nothing has changed. Everyone knew at the 2017 election that a No Deal Brexit was a possibility. And yet they still put a commitment to honouring the result in their personal manifestoes and went all over the media spreading that message.

    Those claiming that a No Deal Brexit does not have a mandate are just as much fanatics as the ERG loons claiming that a BINO was not a proper Brexit and was not what people voted for. Both are projecting their own opinions onto the electorate with no basis in fact.
    Well I for one never saw a single manifesto pushing no deal, my MP Fysh was claiming that we would never leave EFTA/EEA before the referendum and never mentioned no deal as a destination. We were told we hold all the cards, it was the easiest deal in history, blah blah blah. now I only watch news 18 hours a day but if you can show me where anyone claimed no deal was a likely destination, from a positive view I’d be interested.
    But you are a self proclaimed fanatical Remainer. So it is not your opinion we are discussing here but that of those who voted Leave.
    Can you provide the evidence to back up your claim that it was clear in 2017 that no deal was a real possibility? Yes I’m a proud, fanatical, die hard remainer who’s view is as relevant as yours. We are in the middle of the biggest con job ever launched on the UK with no real mechanism to expose it.
    Well no in this argument my view is far more relevantvthan yours because the vlaim being argued is that people like me who favoured a soft Brexit have now changed their minds because a No Desl is in prospect. You fanatics on either side of the argument don't figure in those calculations.
    So no evidence, can we have a list of economic benefits for the NE of England when we leave with no Deal?
    Unsurprisingly you have a very selective memory. The hardliners in the Tory party were already causing trouble for May before the 2017 election and there was lots of debate on here about whether she would use an expected larger majority to force through a softer Brexit. So yes, a No Deal was considered a real possibility then.

    And why should I list the economic benefits when it is not my preferred choice and my choices have never been driven by economics? You are doing well both rewriting history and using Straw Man arguments.
    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:
    So what?
  • Options

    The 2017 election supersedes the referendum.

    At that election, a majority of the electorate voted to leave with a deal.

    They also voted for a badly-hung parliament, or well-hung parliament, according to your point of view, and one which on EU membership is seriously unable to make up its mind. It has since received a petition signed by 6M to Revoke and a petition signed by 0.6M for No Deal. (Spot the position of the decimal point.) Also pro-EU people I know are very enthusiastic about revoking or re-voting whilst the anti-EU people I know are 'fed up with Brexit', i.e. the process, & some of them couldn't care less if we leave or stay.
    Agree.

    As far as we can divine the mood of the country, they voted for a hung parliament in 2017 in large part to put the dampeners on Brexit.

    We need another election urgently. The current government has no mandate whatsoever for their extreme, anti-democratic policy.
    Whichever side of the argument you are on I suspect anyone who thinks a GE will solve anything is going to be sadly disappointed. That is no reason not to have one of course but with the current party leadership and Brexit dynamics I can see it returning a Commons almost identical to this one.
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    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019
    I've answered your stupid question Nichomar - take a bite - see what happens
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    Well I know you won't be voting for them but again, so what? They are still likely to get a fair number of votes at the next general election even if Boris has cut back what they were getting
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Drutt said:

    Off topic again, ForSec Dominic Raab says we haven't changed the Hunt-as-ForSec policy of trying to get pan-European cooperation on Gulf shipping security. It's just that, well, HMS Montrose and HMS Duncan are going to join up with the US fifth fleet to do convoy protection, just for a bit, y'know, just until Germany has built some boats.

    Germany being Germany declined to participate.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    They are utterly stupid questions

    No minister can guarantee anything
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945
    edited August 2019
    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    There are many benefits. You just don't recognise them as such because your values and priorities are fundamentally different from those of us who voted Leave. So you persisting with straw man arguments is pointless.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    Off-topic:

    For all the tens of millions that Boris splurged away on his Garden Bridge, it's a shame he didn't divert some to vital London transport links. Especially existing bridges:
    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2019/hammersmith-bridge-the-signs-are-not-good/

    But that's pointless, as it's just maintenance, and Boris (like too many politicians) does not find maintenance sexy. It's much sexier to announce the new and pointless whilst allowing the existing and used to wither.

    (The 'who pays?' arguments are interesting. I'd argue that such a bridge is a strategic resource for London, and not for one of the boroughs on one side of the bridge, and therefore TfL should do their bit.)
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    I've answered your stupid question Nichomar - take a bite - see what happens

    No you didn’t you have implied that immigrants are going to be in the queue before you for a minimum wage job one minute but four hours ago you were telling us that it wasn’t worth working because of your marginal tax rates. You have come over as a homophobic bizarre poster tonight and I don’t really understand where your coming from but I’m not into one on one fights so I’ll leave it there.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    WTF?

    What is it with all the Brexit candidates tonight? Has Mike been deposed in a pro-Brexit Coup?
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
    Good news?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:



    Surely?

    Nothing has changed.

    Those claiming that a No Deal Brexit does not have a mandate are just as much fanatics as the ERG loons claiming that a BINO was not a proper Brexit and was not what people voted for. Both are projecting their own opinions onto the electorate with no basis in fact.
    Well I for one never saw a single manifesto pushing no deal, my MP Fysh was claiming that we would never leave EFTA/EEA before the referendum and never mentioned no deal as a destination. We were told we hold all the cards, it was the easiest deal in history, blah blah blah. now I only watch news 18 hours a day but if you can show me where anyone claimed no deal was a likely destination, from a positive view I’d be interested.
    But you are a self proclaimed fanatical Remainer. So it is not your opinion we are discussing here but that of those who voted Leave.
    Can you provide the evidence to back up your claim that it was clear in 2017 that no deal was a real possibility? Yes I’m a proud, fanatical, die hard remainer who’s view is as relevant as yours. We are in the middle of the biggest con job ever launched on the UK with no real mechanism to expose it.
    Well no in this argument my view is far more relevantvthan yours because the vlaim being argued is that people like me who favoured a soft Brexit have now changed their minds because a No Desl is in prospect. You fanatics on either side of the argument don't figure in those calculations.
    So no evidence, can we have a list of economic benefits for the NE of England when we leave with no Deal?
    Unsurprisingly you have a very selective memory. The hardliners in the Tory party were already causing trouble for May before the 2017 election and there was lots of debate on here about whether she would use an expected larger majority to force through a softer Brexit. So yes, a No Deal was considered a real possibility then.

    And why should I list the economic benefits when it is not my preferred choice and my choices have never been driven by economics? You are doing well both rewriting history and using Straw Man arguments.
    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.
    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    Well I know you won't be voting for them but again, so what? They are still likely to get a fair number of votes at the next general election even if Boris has cut back what they were getting
    Brilliant 10-15% in every constituency would be brilliant.
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    nichomar said:

    I've answered your stupid question Nichomar - take a bite - see what happens

    No you didn’t you have implied that immigrants are going to be in the queue before you for a minimum wage job one minute but four hours ago you were telling us that it wasn’t worth working because of your marginal tax rates. You have come over as a homophobic bizarre poster tonight and I don’t really understand where your coming from but I’m not into one on one fights so I’ll leave it there.
    So I can't dream of a normal life while I get injected monthly on my Sky Sports allowance?

    And should that time come, if we were still in the EU, then yes competition for a min wage job would be a lot higher.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:



    Surely?

    Nothing has changed.

    Those claiming that a No Deal Brexit does not have a mandate are just as much fanatics as the ERG loons claiming that a BINO was not a proper Brexit and was not what people voted for. Both are projecting their own opinions onto the electorate with no basis in fact.
    But you are a self proclaimed fanatical Remainer. So it is not your opinion we are discussing here but that of those who voted Leave.
    Can you provide the evidence to back up your claim that it was clear in 2017 that no deal was a real possibility? Yes I’m a proud, fanatical, die hard remainer who’s view is as relevant as yours. We are in the middle of the biggest con job ever launched on the UK with no real mechanism to expose it.
    Well no in this argument my view is far more relevantvthan yours because the vlaim being argued is that people like me who favoured a soft Brexit have now changed their minds because a No Desl is in prospect. You fanatics on either side of the argument don't figure in those calculations.
    So no evidence, can we have a list of economic benefits for the NE of England when we leave with no Deal?
    Unsurprisingly you have a very selective memory. The hardliners in the Tory party were already causing trouble for May before the 2017 election and there was lots of debate on here about whether she would use an expected larger majority to force through a softer Brexit. So yes, a No Deal was considered a real possibility then.

    And why should I list the economic benefits when it is not my preferred choice and my choices have never been driven by economics? You are doing well both rewriting history and using Straw Man arguments.
    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.
    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
    Good news?
    Depends what you think the dynamics are. 3 of the 4 constituencies listed are Labiur seats with big Leave votes. I assume TBP is thinking they will take Labour Leave votes who would not switch to the Tories. Whether that is true or not is another matter.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
    Good news?
    Depends what you think the dynamics are. 3 of the 4 constituencies listed are Labiur seats with big Leave votes. I assume TBP is thinking they will take Labour Leave votes who would not switch to the Tories. Whether that is true or not is another matter.
    I suppose labour get what they deserve for the line they have taken, I may be strange but it would be interesting to know who selected these candidates and on what policy platform they are going to stand.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    She seems a bit of a Robot Girl. She's shake her head at HYUFD. Or perhaps she's a spy in the house of love (of the Conservatives).

    Oh, it's Wass not Was ... ;)
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    Please, Mr Rentool.......
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
    Good news?
    Depends what you think the dynamics are. 3 of the 4 constituencies listed are Labiur seats with big Leave votes. I assume TBP is thinking they will take Labour Leave votes who would not switch to the Tories. Whether that is true or not is another matter.
    I suppose labour get what they deserve for the line they have taken, I may be strange but it would be interesting to know who selected these candidates and on what policy platform they are going to stand.
    Nigel.
    And Nigel's.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,993
    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
    Good news?
    Depends what you think the dynamics are. 3 of the 4 constituencies listed are Labiur seats with big Leave votes. I assume TBP is thinking they will take Labour Leave votes who would not switch to the Tories. Whether that is true or not is another matter.
    I suppose labour get what they deserve for the line they have taken, I may be strange but it would be interesting to know who selected these candidates and on what policy platform they are going to stand.
    From observing Farage in the past I suspect it was a case of a warm body who wouldn't challenge him and who had no immediately obvious skeletons in the cupboard. Ticking BAME or female boxes might have helped as well.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.

    PPC is the escape clause as long as you never claim to be THE candidate, then expenses start.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited August 2019
    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Dow Jones down 800 points.
  • Options

    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.

    That's all changed. Indeed, the term PPC is used less now. Essentially, spending limits apply by reference to the date of the election and the "short" and "long" campaigns before that. You don't start expenses just by saying "our candidate is Jo Smith".
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.

    Because UKIP/BXP are known for their strict adherence to the rules
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.

    I think you'll find election rules don't apply to the Brexit Party.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.

    PPC is the escape clause as long as you never claim to be THE candidate, then expenses start.
    No. That all changed with effect from 2004. You can call yourself candidate as much as you like these days.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,993

    nichomar said:

    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.

    PPC is the escape clause as long as you never claim to be THE candidate, then expenses start.
    No. That all changed with effect from 2004. You can call yourself candidate as much as you like these days.
    Ah, thanks.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
    Good news?
    Depends what you think the dynamics are. 3 of the 4 constituencies listed are Labiur seats with big Leave votes. I assume TBP is thinking they will take Labour Leave votes who would not switch to the Tories. Whether that is true or not is another matter.
    I suppose labour get what they deserve for the line they have taken, I may be strange but it would be interesting to know who selected these candidates and on what policy platform they are going to stand.
    From observing Farage in the past I suspect it was a case of a warm body who wouldn't challenge him and who had no immediately obvious skeletons in the cupboard. Ticking BAME or female boxes might have helped as well.
    I know that I’m a sad old git sat out here in Spain with my long liberal and then liberal democrat past with nothing better to do than pass my time on here but at present there are not many alternatives for me. I try and speak from the heart on policy issues and from my experience fighting elections as candidate and agent in the past. I’ll try and be polite in my responses even if they come from a very predictable view point, have a good evening.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,125
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Swinson certainly gives the LDs the best chance of the Unionist parties of making progress against the SNP in the next general election for Westminster (though her seat remains marginal) but on that poll Ruth Davidson is even more popular than Swinson in Scotland so remains the best hope for a Unionist First Minister

    By best hope you mean absolutely NO hope, for either of the donkeys. Davidson will need to be sure she is also top of List so she gets a booby prize , even if somewhat embarrassing.
    The LDs would back Davidson for First Minister of Scotland even if they would not back Boris for UK PM
    Oh yes? Do you have any evidence whatsoever to support that assertion?
    Swinson is as fanatically anti Scottish independence as she is anti Brexit, Davidson backed No to Scottish independence and was a Remainer and opposes No Deal
    Is it really for you to talk about other people being "fanatical"?

    People in glass houses shouldn't make love on the carpet.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    What are the rules about announcing PPC's long before the election. I seem to recall that one had to be a bit careful, otherwise any expenditure they incurred might be counted towards their election costs.

    PPC is the escape clause as long as you never claim to be THE candidate, then expenses start.
    No. That all changed with effect from 2004. You can call yourself candidate as much as you like these days.
    Ok thanks
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    Manna from heaven? That may be one of the more practical plans being put forward.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    So what?
    A fair few key marginals in that lot. It is becoming harder to see them climbing down, with so many people committing to standing.
    Good news?
    Depends what you think the dynamics are. 3 of the 4 constituencies listed are Labiur seats with big Leave votes. I assume TBP is thinking they will take Labour Leave votes who would not switch to the Tories. Whether that is true or not is another matter.
    I suppose labour get what they deserve for the line they have taken, I may be strange but it would be interesting to know who selected these candidates and on what policy platform they are going to stand.
    From observing Farage in the past I suspect it was a case of a warm body who wouldn't challenge him and who had no immediately obvious skeletons in the cupboard. Ticking BAME or female boxes might have helped as well.
    I know that I’m a sad old git sat out here in Spain with my long liberal and then liberal democrat past with nothing better to do than pass my time on here but at present there are not many alternatives for me. I try and speak from the heart on policy issues and from my experience fighting elections as candidate and agent in the past. I’ll try and be polite in my responses even if they come from a very predictable view point, have a good evening.
    Well that's a non-sequiter and a half.

    Thanks for the update - you might be better suited to libdemvoice though
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Dow Jones down 800 points.

    But gun stocks up; apparently a normal consequence of mass shootings, as people think people will stock up in case of possible stricter controls in future. God bless capitalism
  • Options
    You wait for months for a Scotland thread and only me and Malky turn up to the party.

    As suspected, the cybernats prefer to whine from the sidelines.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dow Jones down 800 points.

    But gun stocks up; apparently a normal consequence of mass shootings, as people think people will stock up in case of possible stricter controls in future. God bless capitalism
    Really, what makes people think that "this time things will be different"?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    OT, but China's Hong Kong and Macau affairs ministry backs Carrie Lam and promises to announce "something new" tomorrow.
    Sounds ominous.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Did they? Which of the Leave campaigners talking about the ease of making a deal would have given voters that impression? And remember that leaving without a deal is not the end of the process -- we will still have to make deals, lots of them.
    All irrelevant. The question was leave or remain. Then the negotiations can start. But it was a simple question.
    Bait and switch more like.
    Leave never published a plan, which is why they shit themselves the morning after the ref.
    "Shat". Past tense. Not "shit"
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    tlg86 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dow Jones down 800 points.

    But gun stocks up; apparently a normal consequence of mass shootings, as people think people will stock up in case of possible stricter controls in future. God bless capitalism
    Really, what makes people think that "this time things will be different"?
    Or, indeed, I might not have quite enough firepower already. 3 or 4 more semi-automatics just to be on the safe side.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    OT, but China's Hong Kong and Macau affairs ministry backs Carrie Lam and promises to announce "something new" tomorrow.
    Sounds ominous.

    Sugelan swapped with Hong Kong. Chaomian all round
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783
    edited August 2019

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    If the manna from heaven caused the value of GBP to return to its pre-Referendum level believe me, I will not be complaining.

    Incidentally, if GBP>EUR continues to fall at the present rate, it should hit an all-time low sometime this week. If GBP>USD continues to fall at the same rate it should hit a post-referendum low some time in the next two weeks, although it still has some way to go before it hits its mid 1980s all-time low. Oh, joy.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Did they? Which of the Leave campaigners talking about the ease of making a deal would have given voters that impression? And remember that leaving without a deal is not the end of the process -- we will still have to make deals, lots of them.
    All irrelevant. The question was leave or remain. Then the negotiations can start. But it was a simple question.
    Bait and switch more like.
    Leave never published a plan, which is why they shit themselves the morning after the ref.
    "Shat". Past tense. Not "shit"
    Present perfect continuous, 'They've been shitting themselves since ...' is the tense that works best here.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    350 million quid per week extra to spend on our beloved NHS
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    That is a genuinely ludicrous argument. So the only way in which Soviet Russia was wrong was its inability to provide food for all its people?

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,993
    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    There have been a few grants to small-ish businesses locally, which probably wouldn't have come if it had 'just' been Britain.
    One of my son's benefited from the Erasmus scheme.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't know what other thing @Tyndall was right about today but he is right about leaving. The question was leave or remain - just that - and we haven't left. The flavour of leaving is irrelevant. That no one voted for no deal is irrelevant. They voted to leave and, unless they were morons, which, being Leave voters one can't of course rule out, they knew that no deal was always possible.

    Did they? Which of the Leave campaigners talking about the ease of making a deal would have given voters that impression? And remember that leaving without a deal is not the end of the process -- we will still have to make deals, lots of them.
    All irrelevant. The question was leave or remain. Then the negotiations can start. But it was a simple question.
    Bait and switch more like.
    Leave never published a plan, which is why they shit themselves the morning after the ref.
    "Shat". Past tense. Not "shit"
    Present perfect continuous, 'They've been shitting themselves since ...' is the tense that works best here.
    Indeed.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    viewcode said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    If the manna from heaven caused the value of GBP to return to its pre-Referendum level believe me, I will not be complaining.

    Incidentally, if GBP>EUR continues to fall at the present rate, it should hit a historic low sometime this week. If GBP>USD continues to fall at the same rate it should hit a post-refetendum low some time in the next two weeks, although it still has some way to go before it hits it's mid 1980s all-time low. Oh, joy.
    Yes I’m about 500 euro a month down so far( from before the referendum was announced) but as I’m metropolitan elite I can cope, shame that those on state pensions only can’t.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    350 million quid per week extra to spend on our beloved NHS
    And the farmers. And the car manufacturers. And everybody else to which Boris has promised infinite amounts of dosh this week. It's a handy number, that £350 million. You can spend it as many times as you like, it never gets smaller.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    The 2017 election supersedes the referendum.

    At that election, a majority of the electorate voted to leave with a deal.

    They also voted for a badly-hung parliament, or well-hung parliament, according to your point of view, and one which on EU membership is seriously unable to make up its mind. It has since received a petition signed by 6M to Revoke and a petition signed by 0.6M for No Deal. (Spot the position of the decimal point.) Also pro-EU people I know are very enthusiastic about revoking or re-voting whilst the anti-EU people I know are 'fed up with Brexit', i.e. the process, & some of them couldn't care less if we leave or stay.
    Agree.

    As far as we can divine the mood of the country, they voted for a hung parliament in 2017 in large part to put the dampeners on Brexit.

    We need another election urgently. The current government has no mandate whatsoever for their extreme, anti-democratic policy.
    So say the centre-right, centre, centre-left and left of the country as far as I can ascertain.

    It leaves the SWP, CPGBML, League of Empire Loyalists, er sorry, 'ERG' or perhaps 'Tory Party' and Nigel Farage Limited as dissenters.

    Some headbanger MPs in the basic group I listed earlier (Fysh, Paterson, Mogg, etc, etc) are very sensitive to any mention of the EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive which is to be implemented in 2020. One MP reportedly even said to a constituent that the e-mails to him from pro-EU voters that mentioned offshore finance and tax avoidance were getting 'personal'. Whatever do they have to hide?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    She seems a bit of a Robot Girl. She's shake her head at HYUFD. Or perhaps she's a spy in the house of love (of the Conservatives).

    Oh, it's Wass not Was ... ;)
    Walk the Dinosaur?
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    If the manna from heaven caused the value of GBP to return to its pre-Referendum level believe me, I will not be complaining.

    Incidentally, if GBP>EUR continues to fall at the present rate, it should hit a historic low sometime this week. If GBP>USD continues to fall at the same rate it should hit a post-refetendum low some time in the next two weeks, although it still has some way to go before it hits it's mid 1980s all-time low. Oh, joy.
    Yes I’m about 500 euro a month down so far( from before the referendum was announced) but as I’m metropolitan elite I can cope, shame that those on state pensions only can’t.
    I am always amazed at people that go and live in another country with a different currency and have not thought about the consequences. it is not too difficult too understand that you need enough "local" currency to last through a period of the income currency weakness.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    The 2017 election supersedes the referendum.

    At that election, a majority of the electorate voted to leave with a deal.

    They also voted for a badly-hung parliament, or well-hung parliament, according to your point of view, and one which on EU membership is seriously unable to make up its mind. It has since received a petition signed by 6M to Revoke and a petition signed by 0.6M for No Deal. (Spot the position of the decimal point.) Also pro-EU people I know are very enthusiastic about revoking or re-voting whilst the anti-EU people I know are 'fed up with Brexit', i.e. the process, & some of them couldn't care less if we leave or stay.
    Agree.

    As far as we can divine the mood of the country, they voted for a hung parliament in 2017 in large part to put the dampeners on Brexit.

    We need another election urgently. The current government has no mandate whatsoever for their extreme, anti-democratic policy.
    So say the centre-right, centre, centre-left and left of the country as far as I can ascertain.

    It leaves the SWP, CPGBML, League of Empire Loyalists, er sorry, 'ERG' or perhaps 'Tory Party' and Nigel Farage Limited as dissenters.

    Some headbanger MPs in the basic group I listed earlier (Fysh, Paterson, Mogg, etc, etc) are very sensitive to any mention of the EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive which is to be implemented in 2020. One MP reportedly even said to a constituent that the e-mails to him from pro-EU voters that mentioned offshore finance and tax avoidance were getting 'personal'. Whatever do they have to hide?
    So Brexit is a tax dodge? Fascinating. Tell me more.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    If the manna from heaven caused the value of GBP to return to its pre-Referendum level believe me, I will not be complaining.

    Incidentally, if GBP>EUR continues to fall at the present rate, it should hit a historic low sometime this week. If GBP>USD continues to fall at the same rate it should hit a post-refetendum low some time in the next two weeks, although it still has some way to go before it hits it's mid 1980s all-time low. Oh, joy.
    Yes I’m about 500 euro a month down so far( from before the referendum was announced) but as I’m metropolitan elite I can cope, shame that those on state pensions only can’t.
    Is the £ yet approaching parity with the S.Fr? £1 bought ~S.Fr 12.00 in the 1960s so it isn't just a few tens of percent down. It's fallen by >90%, like the currency of a banana republic.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    tlg86 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dow Jones down 800 points.

    But gun stocks up; apparently a normal consequence of mass shootings, as people think people will stock up in case of possible stricter controls in future. God bless capitalism
    Really, what makes people think that "this time things will be different"?
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/05/investing/gun-stocks/index.html
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    As an aside, there will probably never be a better time to get a UK-China FTA. Now, it would piss President Trump off royally, but China would probably agree to all sorts of things they would never normally do to demonstrate that the world had changed.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    If the manna from heaven caused the value of GBP to return to its pre-Referendum level believe me, I will not be complaining.

    Incidentally, if GBP>EUR continues to fall at the present rate, it should hit a historic low sometime this week. If GBP>USD continues to fall at the same rate it should hit a post-refetendum low some time in the next two weeks, although it still has some way to go before it hits it's mid 1980s all-time low. Oh, joy.
    Yes I’m about 500 euro a month down so far( from before the referendum was announced) but as I’m metropolitan elite I can cope, shame that those on state pensions only can’t.
    I am always amazed at people that go and live in another country with a different currency and have not thought about the consequences. it is not too difficult too understand that you need enough "local" currency to last through a period of the income currency weakness.
    The "period of income currency weakness" might be lifelong. I don't know anything about @nichomar's personal circumstances, but perhaps he didn't take into account the possibility of a UK Government that would deliberately crash the currency and abandon trade deals.

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, there will probably never be a better time to get a UK-China FTA. Now, it would piss President Trump off royally, but China would probably agree to all sorts of things they would never normally do to demonstrate that the world had changed.

    The UK government won't do anything that Trump doesn't want them to.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    If the manna from heaven caused the value of GBP to return to its pre-Referendum level believe me, I will not be complaining.

    Incidentally, if GBP>EUR continues to fall at the present rate, it should hit a historic low sometime this week. If GBP>USD continues to fall at the same rate it should hit a post-refetendum low some time in the next two weeks, although it still has some way to go before it hits it's mid 1980s all-time low. Oh, joy.
    Yes I’m about 500 euro a month down so far( from before the referendum was announced) but as I’m metropolitan elite I can cope, shame that those on state pensions only can’t.
    Is the £ yet approaching parity with the S.Fr? £1 bought ~S.Fr 12.00 in the 1960s so it isn't just a few tens of percent down. It's fallen by >90%, like the currency of a banana republic.
    The UK never defaults. It always devalues.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    viewcode said:

    She seems a bit of a Robot Girl. She's shake her head at HYUFD. Or perhaps she's a spy in the house of love (of the Conservatives).

    Oh, it's Wass not Was ... ;)
    Walk the Dinosaur?
    At least one person got the reference. Your luck won't last ... ;)
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722
    edited August 2019

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    If I ever get back to employable I'll have less competition for the min wage job I'll be after.

    But heh - You wouldn't need to worry about that.
    In the short term providing Johnson only crashes the economy somewhat, we could see a recession and a right labour market at the same time. We discourage marketable immigrants faster than the economy contracts. It catches up in the medium term. The Lump of Labour fallacy is indeed a fallacy.

    Edit Gardenwalker is right. There are essentially no concrete benefits to Brexit which is quite remarkable. Usually there are two sides to a coin, swings and roundabouts. Win some, lose some.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Serious question: if the British government wanted to increase the value of GBP to say, 1 GBP to 2 USD, how could they, if at all, do it? What policies would be needed?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    The benefits are philosophical

    I value them, you have said you don’t

    I guess I’ve progressed further up the hierarchy of need than you have 🙄
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Ch4 news health minister asked how many hospitals in E&W, May be 200, well I actually don’t know, can you guarantee nobody will die if no deal .... stutter can you guarantee UK citizens in EU continued health care .... stutter. This is beyond ridiculous. They really don’t have a fucking clue.

    Guarantee that no-one will die? I didn't realise No Deal is now being judged on whether it fails to provide eternal life.

    In other news, isn't it wonderful that we're leaving the EU? It is delicious and glorious, and I am so happy and grateful.
    Give me a single benefit that leaving the EU will give me, not interested in stupid arguments about sovereignty or taking back control. Why the hell do you want to leave?
    What would be the point? I could list my benefits, and you'd simply angrily reject them. At the moment I think if heaven itself opened and poured its manna on post-Brexit Britain you'd complain about the rain.
    If the manna from heaven caused the value of GBP to return to its pre-Referendum level believe me, I will not be complaining.

    Incidentally, if GBP>EUR continues to fall at the present rate, it should hit an all-time low sometime this week. If GBP>USD continues to fall at the same rate it should hit a post-referendum low some time in the next two weeks, although it still has some way to go before it hits its mid 1980s all-time low. Oh, joy.
    I charge my clients in dollars and my employer pays me based on my pound earnings... 👏👏
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Swinson certainly gives the LDs the best chance of the Unionist parties of making progress against the SNP in the next general election for Westminster (though her seat remains marginal) but on that poll Ruth Davidson is even more popular than Swinson in Scotland so remains the best hope for a Unionist First Minister

    By best hope you mean absolutely NO hope, for either of the donkeys. Davidson will need to be sure she is also top of List so she gets a booby prize , even if somewhat embarrassing.
    The LDs would back Davidson for First Minister of Scotland even if they would not back Boris for UK PM
    They will never get more than 50% of the seats in a million years
    The SNP is polling below its 2016 share in the latest Holyrood polls
    Would you like a bet , I say the Tories and Lib Dem's will get less MSP's than the SNP at next election, do you want to put your money where your mouth is.
    Tories plus LDs plus Labour will likely get more MSPs than the SNP in 2021, plus the Brexit Party will likely get some regional list MSPs too on the latest poll
    If you're so adamant Boris has us leaving on the 31 October deal or no deal, how's the Brexit Party making inroads at Holyrood in 2021?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783

    Serious question: if the British government wanted to increase the value of GBP to say, 1 GBP to 2 USD, how could they, if at all, do it? What policies would be needed?

    Hmm, tricky. Fixed exchange rates (enforcing a level) don't work in these days of instant currency movements. Increasing interest rates would work, but not by enough and would be politically unpopular. Good UK economic growth plus high interest rates in UK plus low US economic growth plus low interest rates in US might do it. Unfortunately those events seem unlikely.

    GBP did hit $2 briefly in the Noughties, and it was before the crash. Perhaps somebody more financially savvy than moi can proffer an explanation. At a guess, @Charles or @rcs1000 would be able to do it.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:


    Well I for one never saw a single manifesto pushing no deal, my MP Fysh was claiming that we would never leave EFTA/EEA before the referendum and never mentioned no deal as a destination. We were told we hold all the cards, it was the easiest deal in history, blah blah blah. now I only watch news 18 hours a day but if you can show me where anyone claimed no deal was a likely destination, from a positive view I’d be interested.

    But you are a self proclaimed fanatical Remainer. So it is not your opinion we are discussing here but that of those who voted Leave.
    Can you provide the evidence to back up your claim that it was clear in 2017 that no deal was a real possibility? Yes I’m a proud, fanatical, die hard remainer who’s view is as relevant as yours. We are in the middle of the biggest con job ever launched on the UK with no real mechanism to expose it.
    Well no in this argument my view is far more relevantvthan yours because the vlaim being argued is that people like me who favoured a soft Brexit have now changed their minds because a No Desl is in prospect. You fanatics on either side of the argument don't figure in those calculations.
    So no evidence, can we have a list of economic benefits for the NE of England when we leave with no Deal?
    Unsurprisingly you have a very selective memory. The hardliners in the Tory party were already causing trouble for May before the 2017 election and there was lots of debate on here about whether she would use an expected larger majority to force through a softer Brexit. So yes, a No Deal was considered a real possibility then.

    And why should I list the economic benefits when it is not my preferred choice and my choices have never been driven by economics? You are doing well both rewriting history and using Straw Man arguments.
    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.
    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    Leavers divide between those that hate immigrants, those that madly hate the EU and those who are prepared to sell Britain down the river to make a quick buck. The rest is window dressing.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    The benefits are philosophical

    I value them, you have said you don’t

    I guess I’ve progressed further up the hierarchy of need than you have 🙄
    As a rich disaster capitalist you can persuade yourself, like the walrus and the carpenter, that the oysters you’re shucking are suffering at the hands of others.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited August 2019
    viewcode said:

    Serious question: if the British government wanted to increase the value of GBP to say, 1 GBP to 2 USD, how could they, if at all, do it? What policies would be needed?

    Hmm, tricky. Fixed exchange rates (enforcing a level) don't work in these days of instant currency movements. Increasing interest rates would work, but not by enough and would be politically unpopular. Good UK economic growth plus high interest rates in UK plus low US economic growth plus low interest rates in US might do it. Unfortunately those events seem unlikely.

    GBP did hit $2 briefly in the Noughties, and it was before the crash. Perhaps somebody more financially savvy than moi can proffer an explanation. At a guess, @Charles or @rcs1000 would be able to do it.
    No, but I was able to buy a beach house from a forced seller in 2009 based on a rate of $1.9 : 1.0

    😂

    At 40% below the asking price

    😂😂
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,848
    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    Serious question: if the British government wanted to increase the value of GBP to say, 1 GBP to 2 USD, how could they, if at all, do it? What policies would be needed?

    Hmm, tricky. Fixed exchange rates (enforcing a level) don't work in these days of instant currency movements. Increasing interest rates would work, but not by enough and would be politically unpopular. Good UK economic growth plus high interest rates in UK plus low US economic growth plus low interest rates in US might do it. Unfortunately those events seem unlikely.

    GBP did hit $2 briefly in the Noughties, and it was before the crash. Perhaps somebody more financially savvy than moi can proffer an explanation. At a guess, @Charles or @rcs1000 would be able to do it.
    No, but I was able to buy a beach house from a forced seller in 2009 based on a rate of $1.9 : 1.0

    😂

    At 40% below the asking price

    😂😂
    Charles doing his best to deny the disaster capitalist claim there I see.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    The benefits are philosophical

    I value them, you have said you don’t

    I guess I’ve progressed further up the hierarchy of need than you have 🙄
    As a rich disaster capitalist you can persuade yourself, like the walrus and the carpenter, that the oysters you’re shucking are suffering at the hands of others.
    They were suffering at your and your ilk’s hands. And so they came out and voted for a change.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,783
    There's a story in the Mirror about a man who went to hospital for Botox and was given a circumcision by accident. He's called Terry Brazier. I'm on the tablet so can't cut and paste, but if you Google it you should find it.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited August 2019
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    The benefits are philosophical

    I value them, you have said you don’t

    I guess I’ve progressed further up the hierarchy of need than you have 🙄
    As a rich disaster capitalist you can persuade yourself, like the walrus and the carpenter, that the oysters you’re shucking are suffering at the hands of others.
    They were suffering at your and your ilk’s hands. And so they came out and voted for a change.
    It’s not me that’s just boasted about having screwed a forced seller to the floor.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    viewcode said:

    There's a story in the Mirror about a man who went to hospital for Botox and was given a circumcision by accident. He's called Terry Brazier. I'm on the tablet so can't cut and paste, but if you Google it you should find it.

    I saw that story in another newspaper earlier today.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    Serious question: if the British government wanted to increase the value of GBP to say, 1 GBP to 2 USD, how could they, if at all, do it? What policies would be needed?

    Hmm, tricky. Fixed exchange rates (enforcing a level) don't work in these days of instant currency movements. Increasing interest rates would work, but not by enough and would be politically unpopular. Good UK economic growth plus high interest rates in UK plus low US economic growth plus low interest rates in US might do it. Unfortunately those events seem unlikely.

    GBP did hit $2 briefly in the Noughties, and it was before the crash. Perhaps somebody more financially savvy than moi can proffer an explanation. At a guess, @Charles or @rcs1000 would be able to do it.
    No, but I was able to buy a beach house from a forced seller in 2009 based on a rate of $1.9 : 1.0

    😂

    At 40% below the asking price

    😂😂
    Charles doing his best to deny the disaster capitalist claim there I see.
    I acquired a strategic asset at a price I could afford. It wasn’t a disaster at all.


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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    I see the resident remainiac loon is wibbling again - laters!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    The benefits are philosophical

    I value them, you have said you don’t

    I guess I’ve progressed further up the hierarchy of need than you have 🙄
    As a rich disaster capitalist you can persuade yourself, like the walrus and the carpenter, that the oysters you’re shucking are suffering at the hands of others.
    They were suffering at your and your ilk’s hands. And so they came out and voted for a change.
    It’s not me that’s just boasted about having screwed a forced seller to the floor.
    Technically she wanted to sell but wasn’t forced to. I offered her cash, off market, and she accepted. She didn’t have to.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    nichomar said:



    So yet again no benefits for leaving the EU the question is frequently asked and never answered.

    You said you weren’t interested in arguments about sovereignty or control. If you don’t value the benefits then, of course, Brexit doesn’t make sense to you
    No because I’ve never lost anything I valued because of the EU I’ve only benefited from it.
    That’s your opinion

    But to say that you don’t want to hear the arguments in favour of Brexit and then complaining that no one is arguing in favour of Brexit is rather pointless
    List the benefits, I remain only interested in what provides economic stability for the majority of people and if you can’t eat the benefit it isn’t worth having
    The benefits are philosophical

    I value them, you have said you don’t

    I guess I’ve progressed further up the hierarchy of need than you have 🙄
    As a rich disaster capitalist you can persuade yourself, like the walrus and the carpenter, that the oysters you’re shucking are suffering at the hands of others.
    They were suffering at your and your ilk’s hands. And so they came out and voted for a change.
    It’s not me that’s just boasted about having screwed a forced seller to the floor.
    Technically she wanted to sell but wasn’t forced to. I offered her cash, off market, and she accepted. She didn’t have to.
    Your story shifts...
This discussion has been closed.