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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Farage in Scotland

While all the focus on today’s Ashcroft Scotland poll has been on growing support for independence the numbers that could have most impact on an early UK general election are in the chart above. How the national party leaders are rated according to the Ashcroft question asking respondents to give a rating from 0 to 100.

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tlg86

First like Nic

IanB2

Second like the LDs in Scotland

dixiedean

Three Scots score better in Scotland than three English. Whoever would have suspected that?

Nigelb

That will trigger malcolm.

Alanbrooke

dixiedean said:

Three Scots score better in Scotland than three English. Whoever would have suspected that?

Royston Mcvasey

IanB2

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Malcolm has a thing for Jo, in truth.

SandyRentool

Wouldn't the LibDems have been better off with a leader from Devon or Cornwall, if they want to play the 'local leader for local people' card?

tlg86

There is some rain heading towards Birmingham. Will it arrive in time?

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

not_on_fire

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

RandallFlagg

Corbyn being less popular than Boris Johnson *in Scotland* really says everything you need to know.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Unrelated to the stats but interesting the top persons are all ladies.

Nigel_Foremain

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Nigelb

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

His logic is that propaganda served him well the last time around.

RobD

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

The assumption is the Commons would vote for an election?

El_Capitano

SandyRentool said:

Wouldn't the LibDems have been better off with a leader from Devon or Cornwall, if they want to play the 'local leader for local people' card?

The Lib Dems weren’t exactly blessed with a surfeit of capable leadership contenders.

SandyRentool

I was thinking 150 all out. Optimistic?

Cyclefree

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Unrelated to the stats but interesting the top persons are all ladies.

I was going to say:-

We’ve given you men a go.

And - how can I put this delicately? - performance has been, well, less than optimal. So, much as in real life, we’re going to have to try and clean up the mess after you.

But then I remembered Mrs May.

She has at least done this one thing for feminism. She has proved beyond a shadow of any doubt that women can be as appallingly incompetent and useless as men. Three cheers for equality, eh!

dixiedean

6 wickets for 36 is a disaster for confidence. Need someone to stick in, or it could be 5-0.

anothernick

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

Richard_Nabavi

You do have to laugh:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1158350120649408513

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1158366007360139265

surbiton19

SandyRentool said:

I was thinking 150 all out. Optimistic?

The Aussies were 8/122. So a win by 3 wickets still on

sarissa

not_on_fire said:

» show previous quotes
And in how many votes in Parliament in the last 20 years that affected England only have the votes of Scottish MPs made a difference?

This from 2015 partially answers your question:

By one analysis referred to in this blog post by UCL’s Robert Hazell, only 21 of 5,000 “divisions” in the House of Commons since 1997 would have produced different verdicts if Scottish MPs had been excluded. His colleague Alan Trench adds that only two bills in the New Labour era were passed due to Scottish (Labour) votes. (These were on big issues, though — university tuition fees and on foundation hospitals.)

Tabman

Is this a huge WAH for the cybernats?

RobD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1158366007360139265

The process would be harder too. Leave without a deal and we wave goodbye to Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, written to enable a member state to leave with an agreement. Britain then becomes a “third country” and talks about UK-EU relations are covered by Article 218. It says that when the EU strikes a trade deal with a foreign country, final approval rests with European governments and parliaments. If we leave without a deal, any subsequent trade agreement we might strikes with the EU would be subject to veto by politicians from Stockholm to Sofia.

That’s the case with or without a deal. Any FTA will have to be ratified by all governments/parliaments, not just one conducted under no deal.

edmundintokyo

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

There wasn't any logic in the piece, he just ignored the possibility that the opposition parties would form a government.

I guess the idea is that if and when such a thing happens, he wants to pretend to Telegraph readers that it's some obscure procedural trick, rather than the intended functioning of the constitution if the government is trying to do something mental and needs to be replaced.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Cyclefree, hehe. Does make me think of the Diadochi era, when Olympias proved that women can be at least as savage as men.

It's bizarre that some seem to think discord is caused by men and if only women were in charge everything would be lovely. The same problems would exist, with the same potential solutions.

Richard_Tyndall

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1158366007360139265

The process would be harder too. Leave without a deal and we wave goodbye to Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, written to enable a member state to leave with an agreement. Britain then becomes a “third country” and talks about UK-EU relations are covered by Article 218. It says that when the EU strikes a trade deal with a foreign country, final approval rests with European governments and parliaments. If we leave without a deal, any subsequent trade agreement we might strikes with the EU would be subject to veto by politicians from Stockholm to Sofia.

That’s the case with or without a deal. Any FTA will have to be ratified by all governments/parliaments, not just one conducted under no deal.

Yep. This is a straw man by Kirkup to the extent that Deal or No Deal makes no legal difference to the need for approval for any future trade deal.

JBriskinindyref2

More shockingly good stats for the separatists - I do fear for Scotland and it's got sweet F.A to do with Brexit

Philip_Thompson

edmundintokyo said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

There wasn't any logic in the piece, he just ignored the possibility that the opposition parties would form a government.

I guess the idea is that if and when such a thing happens, he wants to pretend to Telegraph readers that it's some obscure procedural trick, rather than the intended functioning of the constitution if the government is trying to do something mental and needs to be replaced.

Corbyn won't back anyone else. It is No Deal or PM Corbyn and he is happy with that.

So will Luciana Berger et al back PM Corbyn? It does seem implausible.

Nigelb

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1158366007360139265

The process would be harder too. Leave without a deal and we wave goodbye to Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, written to enable a member state to leave with an agreement. Britain then becomes a “third country” and talks about UK-EU relations are covered by Article 218. It says that when the EU strikes a trade deal with a foreign country, final approval rests with European governments and parliaments. If we leave without a deal, any subsequent trade agreement we might strikes with the EU would be subject to veto by politicians from Stockholm to Sofia.

That’s the case with or without a deal. Any FTA will have to be ratified by all governments/parliaments, not just one conducted under no deal.

Which was the entire purpose of the withdrawal agreement - to legally ensure a comfortable interim in which to negotiate.
With No Deal, our desperation is almost certain to exceed that of the EU.

JBriskinindyref2

I like Mike picking out Brown's 2010 Scottish result - it's something I always remember about that election

JBriskinindyref2

Where are the SNat Quad (Mr Glenn being an honorary member)???

Stark_Dawning

edmundintokyo said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

There wasn't any logic in the piece, he just ignored the possibility that the opposition parties would form a government.

I guess the idea is that if and when such a thing happens, he wants to pretend to Telegraph readers that it's some obscure procedural trick, rather than the intended functioning of the constitution if the government is trying to do something mental and needs to be replaced.

Yes, I genuinely think Cummings would like to see the role of MPs abolished, perhaps being replaced with a 'Borisocracy', in which a plebiscite twice a decade or so rubber stamps his man's authority.

TOPPING

For all the world it seems that if the remain MPs are to do anything, given the timings, then it will be, as they say, to "capture the order paper" and put down a motion (with the agreement of the Speaker) which could say what, no no deal and an extension.

It's that or we leave on October 31st so do the rebels have the gumption? I have my doubts.

malcolmg

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Now Now Nigel

Cyclefree

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

There wasn't any logic in the piece, he just ignored the possibility that the opposition parties would form a government.

I guess the idea is that if and when such a thing happens, he wants to pretend to Telegraph readers that it's some obscure procedural trick, rather than the intended functioning of the constitution if the government is trying to do something mental and needs to be replaced.

Corbyn won't back anyone else. It is No Deal or PM Corbyn and he is happy with that.

So will Luciana Berger et al back PM Corbyn? It does seem implausible.

It’s win-win for Corbyn, really.

malcolmg

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Where are the SNat Quad (Mr Glenn being an honorary member)???

Working you lazy son of a B****

malcolmg

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Village idiot has escaped again

malcolmg

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Malcolm has a thing for Jo, in truth.

Ian, you are worse than Nigel

Byronic

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

JBriskinindyref2

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Where are the SNat Quad (Mr Glenn being an honorary member)???

Working you lazy son of a B****

I'm not lazy - I've just got sub-optimal marginal tax rates.

malcolmg

El_Capitano said:

SandyRentool said:

Wouldn't the LibDems have been better off with a leader from Devon or Cornwall, if they want to play the 'local leader for local people' card?

The Lib Dems weren’t exactly blessed with a surfeit of capable leadership contenders.

Or MP's to choose from even

malcolmg

JBriskinindyref2 said:

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Where are the SNat Quad (Mr Glenn being an honorary member)???

Working you lazy son of a B****

I'm not lazy - I've just got sub-optimal marginal tax rates.

PClipp

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

He seems to to be very much like a little kid with a lighted candle in a room full of fireworks. He just likes destroying things.

It surprised me greatly when I saw a photo of him. I did not realise that he was grey and wizened. He ought to know better.

justin124

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

There wasn't any logic in the piece, he just ignored the possibility that the opposition parties would form a government.

I guess the idea is that if and when such a thing happens, he wants to pretend to Telegraph readers that it's some obscure procedural trick, rather than the intended functioning of the constitution if the government is trying to do something mental and needs to be replaced.

Corbyn won't back anyone else. It is No Deal or PM Corbyn and he is happy with that.

So will Luciana Berger et al back PM Corbyn? It does seem implausible.

If avoiding a No Deal is paramount , why would she and the other ex-Labour MPs not do so given the weakness of his parliamentary position? It would be very short term - and ,at the end of the day, she was elected as a Labour MP!

rottenborough

I have never bet on cricket before, but on Saturday evening I had feeling the Aussies would do this and so put the price of a pint on at 3.5.

Just laid it off, so even rain cannot stop me winning.

No doubt I am a traitor and will be escorted to the Tower along with Gina Miller any day now.

williamglenn

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Do you think the current constitutional arrangements of the UK are optimal? If not, why do you preclude the idea that a better version might be based on cooperation between sovereign states, à la the EU? Why smear people who favour such a model?

PClipp

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

There wasn't any logic in the piece, he just ignored the possibility that the opposition parties would form a government.
I guess the idea is that if and when such a thing happens, he wants to pretend to Telegraph readers that it's some obscure procedural trick, rather than the intended functioning of the constitution if the government is trying to do something mental and needs to be replaced.

Corbyn won't back anyone else. It is No Deal or PM Corbyn and he is happy with that.
So will Luciana Berger et al back PM Corbyn? It does seem implausible.

If avoiding a No Deal is paramount , why would she and the other ex-Labour MPs not do so given the weakness of his parliamentary position? It would be very short term - and ,at the end of the day, she was elected as a Labour MP!

But was betrayed and thoroughly let down by the Labour Party leadership.

Byronic

It's just occurred to me that Brexit is conceptually impossible (perhaps years later than everyone else). Every route to it comes to some political obstacle which is insurmountable: the EU, the Irish border, the Single Market, the lack of parliamentary majority, the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn as PM (shudder)

And yet the routes away from Brexit are the same, Revoke. 2nd referendum, endless Extension, all of these are politically impossible AS WELL.

Therefore, in the next three months, something politically impossible HAS TO HAPPEN.

Scott_P

Probably not the headline they were aiming for this morning

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1158372080766738432

RobD

Nigelb said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1158366007360139265

The process would be harder too. Leave without a deal and we wave goodbye to Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, written to enable a member state to leave with an agreement. Britain then becomes a “third country” and talks about UK-EU relations are covered by Article 218. It says that when the EU strikes a trade deal with a foreign country, final approval rests with European governments and parliaments. If we leave without a deal, any subsequent trade agreement we might strikes with the EU would be subject to veto by politicians from Stockholm to Sofia.

That’s the case with or without a deal. Any FTA will have to be ratified by all governments/parliaments, not just one conducted under no deal.

Which was the entire purpose of the withdrawal agreement - to legally ensure a comfortable interim in which to negotiate.
With No Deal, our desperation is almost certain to exceed that of the EU.

Yet that isn’t what the piece is arguing. A quite basic factual error.

Stark_Dawning

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

JBriskinindyref2

rottenborough said:

I have never bet on cricket before, but on Saturday evening I had feeling the Aussies would do this and so put the price of a pint on at 3.5.

Just laid it off, so even rain cannot stop me winning.

No doubt I am a traitor and will be escorted to the Tower along with Gina Miller any day now.

Well done - but hedging's for bankers - I got on at 1.63 yesterday, looks like it's going to plan

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yep. This is a straw man by Kirkup to the extent that Deal or No Deal makes no legal difference to the need for approval for any future trade deal.

That's not quite right. Under the Article 50 provisions, there various things which can be agreed by the Council, including a lot of transitional and 'grandfathering' arrangements. Once we've crashed out, those become much more difficult.

In any case, the key point is the urgency. With no transition in place, we'll be desperate. We'd also have lost a great deal of trust and goodwill. Leaving with no deal and then trying to recover at least something from the wreckage really would be the worst possible starting point for negotiating a new relationship, especially since it looks as though we'll have done it purely as an act of political and economic self-harm.

Richard_Tyndall

RobD said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

The assumption is the Commons would vote for an election?

I presume so. Or at least they would not be organised enough to vote for an alternative Government. Given their record for the last 3 years that seems a reasonable assumption.

Dura_Ace

Byronic said:

It's just occurred to me that Brexit is conceptually impossible (perhaps years later than everyone else). Every route to it comes to some political obstacle which is insurmountable: the EU, the Irish border, the Single Market, the lack of parliamentary majority, the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn as PM (shudder)

And yet the routes away from Brexit are the same, Revoke. 2nd referendum, endless Extension, all of these are politically impossible AS WELL.

Therefore, in the next three months, something politically impossible HAS TO HAPPEN.

Another extension is the least politcally impossible.

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

The assumption is the Commons would vote for an election?

I presume so. Or at least they would not be organised enough to vote for an alternative Government. Given their record for the last 3 years that seems a reasonable assumption.

They were pretty damned organised over the Cooper-Letwin bill.

justin124

PClipp said:

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

There wasn't any logic in the piece, he just ignored the possibility that the opposition parties would form a government.
I guess the idea is that if and when such a thing happens, he wants to pretend to Telegraph readers that it's some obscure procedural trick, rather than the intended functioning of the constitution if the government is trying to do something mental and needs to be replaced.

Corbyn won't back anyone else. It is No Deal or PM Corbyn and he is happy with that.
So will Luciana Berger et al back PM Corbyn? It does seem implausible.

If avoiding a No Deal is paramount , why would she and the other ex-Labour MPs not do so given the weakness of his parliamentary position? It would be very short term - and ,at the end of the day, she was elected as a Labour MP!

But was betrayed and thoroughly let down by the Labour Party leadership.

PClipp said:

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

edmundintokyo said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Corbyn won't back anyone else. It is No Deal or PM Corbyn and he is happy with that.
So will Luciana Berger et al back PM Corbyn? It does seem implausible.

If avoiding a No Deal is paramount , why would she and the other ex-Labour MPs not do so given the weakness of his parliamentary position? It would be very short term - and ,at the end of the day, she was elected as a Labour MP!

But was betrayed and thoroughly let down by the Labour Party leadership.

But would she - and the others - really be prepared to facilitate No Deal simply to prevent Corbyn being PM for a few weeks under conditions where his parliamentary position is very weak? Moreover, Boris repels them every bit as much as he does.

JBriskinindyref2

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Do you think the current constitutional arrangements of the UK are optimal? If not, why do you preclude the idea that a better version might be based on cooperation between sovereign states, à la the EU? Why smear people who favour such a model?

It's only sub-optimal because there's not a Federal States of Britain yet. The sooner the better.

rottenborough

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yep. This is a straw man by Kirkup to the extent that Deal or No Deal makes no legal difference to the need for approval for any future trade deal.

That's not quite right. Under the Article 50 provisions, there various things which can be agreed by the Council, including a lot of transitional and 'grandfathering' arrangements. Once we've crashed out, those become much more difficult.

In any case, the key point is the urgency. With no transition in place, we'll be desperate. We'd also have lost a great deal of trust and goodwill. Leaving with no deal and then trying to recover at least something from the wreckage really would be the worst possible starting point for negotiating a new relationship, especially since it looks as though we'll have done it purely as an act of political and economic self-harm.

But that is not what Kirkup is arguing in his piece. He is claiming that by leaving with an agreement we would avoid having to have any future FTA agreed by each and every country in the EU. This is factually incorrect. Whether we leave with a deal or without one, any future trade deal must be agreed unanimously by the EU 27.

malcolmg

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Do you think the current constitutional arrangements of the UK are optimal? If not, why do you preclude the idea that a better version might be based on cooperation between sovereign states, à la the EU? Why smear people who favour such a model?

It's only sub-optimal because there's not a Federal States of Britain yet. The sooner the better.

You think Westminster will let any powers out of its grasp in the next million years, super optimistic

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

The assumption is the Commons would vote for an election?

I presume so. Or at least they would not be organised enough to vote for an alternative Government. Given their record for the last 3 years that seems a reasonable assumption.

They were pretty damned organised over the Cooper-Letwin bill.

Which was all about voting against something rather than voting for something.

RobD

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Do you think the current constitutional arrangements of the UK are optimal? If not, why do you preclude the idea that a better version might be based on cooperation between sovereign states, à la the EU? Why smear people who favour such a model?

It's only sub-optimal because there's not a Federal States of Britain yet. The sooner the better.

You think Westminster will let any powers out of its grasp in the next million years, super optimistic

It joined the EU, didn’t it?

RobD

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

FTPA - what a joke.

NickPalmer

Stark_Dawning said:

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

Yes. I've got an article going up on Labour List about how to do it this afternoon.

Byronic

Dura_Ace said:

Byronic said:

It's just occurred to me that Brexit is conceptually impossible (perhaps years later than everyone else). Every route to it comes to some political obstacle which is insurmountable: the EU, the Irish border, the Single Market, the lack of parliamentary majority, the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn as PM (shudder)

And yet the routes away from Brexit are the same, Revoke. 2nd referendum, endless Extension, all of these are politically impossible AS WELL.

Therefore, in the next three months, something politically impossible HAS TO HAPPEN.

Another extension is the least politcally impossible.

Nonsense. It's as banjaxed as everything else.

Who is going to ask for an extension? Boris won't do it. So who will, and how? And also, what will the reason be? The EU won't just grant it because we feel like wasting more time. We will either have to be planning a new election, or a 2nd vote. So again we come back to political impossibles fraught with implausibility.

Gallowgate

NickPalmer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

Yes. I've got an article going up on Labour List about how to do it this afternoon.

Party before country...

DecrepitJohnL

Dura_Ace said:

Byronic said:

It's just occurred to me that Brexit is conceptually impossible (perhaps years later than everyone else). Every route to it comes to some political obstacle which is insurmountable: the EU, the Irish border, the Single Market, the lack of parliamentary majority, the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn as PM (shudder)

And yet the routes away from Brexit are the same, Revoke. 2nd referendum, endless Extension, all of these are politically impossible AS WELL.

Therefore, in the next three months, something politically impossible HAS TO HAPPEN.

Another extension is the least politcally impossible.

It is not just that everything connected with Brexit is impossible; it is that Brexit is the start of a process, not a discrete event as the politicians would have us believe.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/leaving-on-october-31-won-t-be-the-end-of-this-brexit-will-never-be-over-a4205606.html

Cyclefree

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yep. This is a straw man by Kirkup to the extent that Deal or No Deal makes no legal difference to the need for approval for any future trade deal.

That's not quite right. Under the Article 50 provisions, there various things which can be agreed by the Council, including a lot of transitional and 'grandfathering' arrangements. Once we've crashed out, those become much more difficult.

In any case, the key point is the urgency. With no transition in place, we'll be desperate. We'd also have lost a great deal of trust and goodwill. Leaving with no deal and then trying to recover at least something from the wreckage really would be the worst possible starting point for negotiating a new relationship, especially since it looks as though we'll have done it purely as an act of political and economic self-harm.

Why would the EU even start trying to negotiate an agreement with the UK in such circumstances?

It has wasted two years negotiating an agreement which the UK government spurned. It has other things to worry about. Why waste more time? It can have no confidence that any agreement reached would be supported by Parliament. Why not wait and see what sort of government emerges from the smoke? Why not use the time to strengthen its own position vis a vis Britain and thereby ensure that when talks do start it is in a relatively much stronger position?

The assumption that Britain could refuse the current withdrawal agreement, have a No Deal Brexit which will cause some disruption to the EU and then carry on to negotiations for a long-term relationship with the EU it has just turned away from in the most disruptive manner possible as if nothing had happened seems to me to be yet another of those wrong-headed assumptions Britain’s political class is under when it comes to matters European.

ydoethur

JBriskinindyref2 said:

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Where are the SNat Quad (Mr Glenn being an honorary member)???

Working you lazy son of a B****

I'm not lazy - I've just got sub-optimal marginal tax rates.

That's brilliant.

I'm going to tell my tutor group to use that as an excuse for failing to hand in boring shit like economics homework.

JBriskinindyref2

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Do you think the current constitutional arrangements of the UK are optimal? If not, why do you preclude the idea that a better version might be based on cooperation between sovereign states, à la the EU? Why smear people who favour such a model?

It's only sub-optimal because there's not a Federal States of Britain yet. The sooner the better.

You think Westminster will let any powers out of its grasp in the next million years, super optimistic

The Scottish parliament has enough powers already - under FSB if anything its powers will be reduced.

MikeSmithson

I've just got back from the hospital had a small operation. I'm told that I should not drive, use heavy machinery or sign legal documents. I am, however posting on PB

JBriskinindyref2

ydoethur said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Where are the SNat Quad (Mr Glenn being an honorary member)???

Working you lazy son of a B****

I'm not lazy - I've just got sub-optimal marginal tax rates.

That's brilliant.

I'm going to tell my tutor group to use that as an excuse for failing to hand in boring shit like economics homework.

Whatever - I'll start looking when for work when our beloved NHS stops insisting on injecting me.

rottenborough

Gallowgate said:

NickPalmer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

Yes. I've got an article going up on Labour List about how to do it this afternoon.

Party before country...

Insane. I await Nick's article, but on the face of it seems to be arguing that Corbyn should let the country fall into economic chaos in order for him to have more chance of winning an election. That is despicable. No other word for it.

And of course, this is the Seamus Strategy.

What a generation of politicians we have.

JBriskinindyref2

England 1 wicket left

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

I've just got back from the hospital had a small operation. I'm told that I should not drive, use heavy machinery or sign legal documents. I am, however come up posting on PB

Are you allowed to login to betfair?

Speedy recovery, etc.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Smithson, hope it all went well, and you recover quickly.

Byronic

MikeSmithson said:

I've just got back from the hospital had a small operation. I'm told that I should not drive, use heavy machinery or sign legal documents. I am, however come up posting on PB

Are you allowed to switch off autocorrect?

Get better!

rottenborough

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

FTPA - what a joke.

Gifted to the nation by one David Cameron, it could be the thing that finally delivers No Deal.

Boris need only schedule the GE date for the day or week after 31st Oct and we are out.

Nigelb

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

And that clause, of course, would necessitate a caretaker PM whom most anti-No Deal MPs trust. Which rather rules out Corbyn.

RobD

rottenborough said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

FTPA - what a joke.

Gifted to the nation by one David Cameron, it could be the thing that finally delivers No Deal.

Boris need only schedule the GE date for the day or week after 31st Oct and we are out.

I thought it was Clegg’s idea.

TOPPING

rottenborough said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

FTPA - what a joke.

Gifted to the nation by one David Cameron, it could be the thing that finally delivers No Deal.

Boris need only schedule the GE date for the day or week after 31st Oct and we are out.

Nope. MPs could capture the order paper and introduce a motion of, say, an extension.

Sounds like the only option available.

RobD

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

And that clause, of course, would necessitate a caretaker PM whom most anti-No Deal MPs trust. Which rather rules out Corbyn.

Has it been established whether the PM gets replaced after a VONC but before an election? The election implies no one else could command a majority.

Byronic

rottenborough said:

Gallowgate said:

NickPalmer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

Yes. I've got an article going up on Labour List about how to do it this afternoon.

Party before country...

Insane. I await Nick's article, but on the face of it seems to be arguing that Corbyn should let the country fall into economic chaos in order for him to have more chance of winning an election. That is despicable. No other word for it.

And of course, this is the Seamus Strategy.

What a generation of politicians we have.

Is NPXMP *really* writing an article on how to facilitate No Deal solely to benefit Labour?

I find that very hard to believe.

Yet it does read that way from his comment. Perhaps he has just written that comment badly?

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Do you think the current constitutional arrangements of the UK are optimal? If not, why do you preclude the idea that a better version might be based on cooperation between sovereign states, à la the EU? Why smear people who favour such a model?

It's only sub-optimal because there's not a Federal States of Britain yet. The sooner the better.

You think Westminster will let any powers out of its grasp in the next million years, super optimistic

Westmisnter could give Scotland the power to run the whole UK and Sturgeon would shit herself if she had to use them

better to whine from the nsidelines

bloody lawyer

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nigelb said:

That will trigger malcolm.

Everything triggers Malcolm, but then, hey, he is a nationalist, and nationalists the world over like to get triggered by anyone who isn't recognised in their small minds as part of their tribe

Do you think the current constitutional arrangements of the UK are optimal? If not, why do you preclude the idea that a better version might be based on cooperation between sovereign states, à la the EU? Why smear people who favour such a model?

It's only sub-optimal because there's not a Federal States of Britain yet. The sooner the better.

You think Westminster will let any powers out of its grasp in the next million years, super optimistic

It joined the EU, didn’t it?

That gave away nothing , just gave them a patsy to blame for all their crap decisions.

Pulpstar

Jimmy Anderson 120*
Chris Woakes 172*

Byronic

Here's a question which we might have to answer, soon enough. If the final choice is between No Deal and Revoke, which way would parliament swing?

My hunch is No Deal. Even though a majority of MPs would surely prefer Revoke.

Stark_Dawning

RobD said:

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

And that clause, of course, would necessitate a caretaker PM whom most anti-No Deal MPs trust. Which rather rules out Corbyn.

Has it been established whether the PM gets replaced after a VONC but before an election? The election implies no one else could command a majority.

I think Boris stays on as caretaker PM until such time as Liz appoints his agreed successor or parliament is dissolved. And Boris can't do anything significant during that time.

rottenborough

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

FTPA - what a joke.

Gifted to the nation by one David Cameron, it could be the thing that finally delivers No Deal.

Boris need only schedule the GE date for the day or week after 31st Oct and we are out.

I thought it was Clegg’s idea.

Yes, you may be right, on reflection. I think Osborne was the one who suggested 5 rather than 4 years.

JBriskinindyref2

Pulpstar said:

Jimmy Anderson 120*
Chris Woakes 172*

Can England still even win??? They've taken their target off the screen which was surely a very bad omen

rottenborough

Byronic said:

rottenborough said:

Gallowgate said:

NickPalmer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

Yes. I've got an article going up on Labour List about how to do it this afternoon.

Party before country...

Insane. I await Nick's article, but on the face of it seems to be arguing that Corbyn should let the country fall into economic chaos in order for him to have more chance of winning an election. That is despicable. No other word for it.

And of course, this is the Seamus Strategy.

What a generation of politicians we have.

Is NPXMP *really* writing an article on how to facilitate No Deal solely to benefit Labour?

I find that very hard to believe.

Yet it does read that way from his comment. Perhaps he has just written that comment badly?

Who knows in these benighted times.

SandyRentool

NickPalmer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

Yes. I've got an article going up on Labour List about how to do it this afternoon.

To remove ambiguity:

'I've got an article going up on Labour List this afternoon about how to do it.'

Unless you are advocating that Jezza needs to crack on with it before teatime!

RobD

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

And that clause, of course, would necessitate a caretaker PM whom most anti-No Deal MPs trust. Which rather rules out Corbyn.

Has it been established whether the PM gets replaced after a VONC but before an election? The election implies no one else could command a majority.

I think Boris stays on as caretaker PM until such time as Liz appoints his agreed successor or parliament is dissolved. And Boris can't do anything significant during that time.

He would be legally required to recommend a date to HM.

ralphmalph

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yep. This is a straw man by Kirkup to the extent that Deal or No Deal makes no legal difference to the need for approval for any future trade deal.

That's not quite right. Under the Article 50 provisions, there various things which can be agreed by the Council, including a lot of transitional and 'grandfathering' arrangements. Once we've crashed out, those become much more difficult.

In any case, the key point is the urgency. With no transition in place, we'll be desperate. We'd also have lost a great deal of trust and goodwill. Leaving with no deal and then trying to recover at least something from the wreckage really would be the worst possible starting point for negotiating a new relationship, especially since it looks as though we'll have done it purely as an act of political and economic self-harm.

But that is not what Kirkup is arguing in his piece. He is claiming that by leaving with an agreement we would avoid having to have any future FTA agreed by each and every country in the EU. This is factually incorrect. Whether we leave with a deal or without one, any future trade deal must be agreed unanimously by the EU 27.

The EU can agree and ratify a trade deal, if that trade deal lies 100% within the competence of the EU. What is happening with the new trade deals that the EU is agreeing is that sections of them cover terms which are the competence of the nation states.

For example trade in goods is a 100% EU competence. Trade in services is not.

rottenborough

RobD said:

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

anothernick said:

not_on_fire said:

Can anyone explain Domininc Cumming's logic to me please. He seems to be saying that if there is a VoNC, the government will just call an immediate General Election. But surely under the FTPA that would requrie a two-thirds vote? And if/when a GONU takes control, Boris's power to call a GE would cease?

Boris has no power to call a GE. It can only come about if 2/3 of the Commons vote for it (as they did in 2017) or if a government loses a VONC and an alternative government cannot be put together within 14 days. Both scenarios are pretty unlikely IMO - the opposition parties would demand an A50 extension as the price of voting for an early GE and if the government falls at a VONC an alternative will be put together for a short time at least for the purpose of getting an extension to A50.....

That might, of course, be exactly what Boris wants. Be forced into seeking an extension, then go to the country for a Brexity GE "on the side of Brexit". Facing Corbyn, he would probably win.

Could be a landslide to be honest.

I think Cummings is either maintaining any old horseshit for the purposes of keeping Brussels alert to No Deal, or is assuming that HoC wont actually get its collective act together and organize an alternative government within 14 days.

In the latter case, on which he may well be right, despite all the protestations, then Boris does get to choose the GE date I think.

This is the line in the Act:

"Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown."

A massive hole in the Act frankly.

And that clause, of course, would necessitate a caretaker PM whom most anti-No Deal MPs trust. Which rather rules out Corbyn.

Has it been established whether the PM gets replaced after a VONC but before an election? The election implies no one else could command a majority.

Exactly. That's how it looks to me. Johnson remains PM (there is always one) until another has emerged. If one doesn't then he is the chap who decides the date of the GE. Unless of course he has personally resigned to the Queen anyway and then Cabinet select someone, probably the Home Secretary.

OMG!! I have just realised. Patel could be PM within weeks.

anothernick

rottenborough said:

Gallowgate said:

NickPalmer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Corbyn must, must, must find a way to stop parliament blocking No Deal. It would completely stuff Boris in the ensuing horror show. What could Boris possibly say? It's parliaments fault for letting me do it?

Yes. I've got an article going up on Labour List about how to do it this afternoon.

Party before country...

Insane. I await Nick's article, but on the face of it seems to be arguing that Corbyn should let the country fall into economic chaos in order for him to have more chance of winning an election. That is despicable. No other word for it.

And of course, this is the Seamus Strategy.

What a generation of politicians we have.

Corbyn has consistently said that no deal would be a disaster and must be avoided at all costs. He said it again today. He has been completely unequivocal on this, in contrast to his position on Brexit generally, so the idea that he is secretly planning to precipitate no deal seems unlikely to me.

ydoethur

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Pulpstar said:

Jimmy Anderson 120*
Chris Woakes 172*

Can England still even win??? They've taken their target off the screen which was surely a very bad omen

In theory, yes.

Just as in theory David Warner might be named Greatest Foreign Sportsman by the BBC.