An insightful piece. The gutting of the FE sector in particular has been pernicious. Most "left behind" towns used to have a relatively cheap, convenient place for ambitious people without much formal qualifications to "improve" themselves, and form a community of like-minded people. There was also stable employment for an educated middle class who taught there. Now there isn't.
I usually don't agree with Simon Jenkins, but he's spot on. How many times have we heard (on here as well as in the media), that there hasn't really been any austerity because it only really affected local government (which apparently doesn't actually matter)?
Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””
No source or citation?
Including for how "virtually every business in his constituency" have been questioned?
An insightful piece. The gutting of the FE sector in particular has been pernicious. Most "left behind" towns used to have a relatively cheap, convenient place for ambitious people without much formal qualifications to "improve" themselves, and form a community of like-minded people. There was also stable employment for an educated middle class who taught there. Now there isn't.
I usually don't agree with Simon Jenkins, but he's spot on. How many times have we heard (on here as well as in the media), that there hasn't really been any austerity because it only really affected local government (which apparently doesn't actually matter)?
Yes. I rarely agree with him either. He is on the money here though.
Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.
If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).
Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
Which is in reality not leaving at all, though single market membership alone or customs union membership alone would still have allowed us to do our own trade deals and free movement to end or greater control of fisheries and an end to ECJ jurisdiction and could have been agreed later had the Withdrawal Agreement been passed, the political declaration on the future relationship was not binding
Here is a policy for Priti Patel. Move all prisons out of London, 'Oop North'. That is prime London residential property. The reason they are situated in London is because they need to be near the families for visiting. That reason is very dated. Probably an EU regulation. It would be the perfect Priti Patel policy.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Which the British government would not do and the DUP being the largest Northern Ireland party would not ask it to do anyway
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
Considering both Remain and Leave campaigners said in the referendum that we would leave the Single Market that's fair enough.
Including for how "virtually every business in his constituency" have been questioned?
When you want to know what a particular group of people think you can take a sample and extrapolate from that, you don't have to go around all of them individually.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
Including for how "virtually every business in his constituency" have been questioned?
When you want to know what a particular group of people think you can take a sample and extrapolate from that, you don't have to go around all of them individually.
So long as its a representative sample.
I doubt a representative sample of businesses have been involved. Instead he is probably assuming what he believes is good for business.
Fintan O'Toole is great when writing about how things are, but not so good when proposing how to change things.
It doesn't even seem certain to me that the seven SF seats would be enough to defeat Johnson in a vote of no confidence. May won the last vote, in January, by 325 to 306. The recent by-election and the 7 SF seats would change it to 324-314. The three tigger ex-Tories might switch sides, to make it 321-317.
Beyond that I think you need current Tory MPs to vote against their own government and if that happens then the SF seats make less of a difference as each Tory MP to switch sides counts double.
Including for how "virtually every business in his constituency" have been questioned?
When you want to know what a particular group of people think you can take a sample and extrapolate from that, you don't have to go around all of them individually.
So long as its a representative sample.
I doubt a representative sample of businesses have been involved. Instead he is probably assuming what he believes is good for business.
Or, to give him some credit, he will have been approached by people who want the government to change their approach, but not by those who wish then to continue it.
Fintan O'Toole is great when writing about how things are, but not so good when proposing how to change things.
It doesn't even seem certain to me that the seven SF seats would be enough to defeat Johnson in a vote of no confidence. May won the last vote, in January, by 325 to 306. The recent by-election and the 7 SF seats would change it to 324-314. The three tigger ex-Tories might switch sides, to make it 321-317.
Beyond that I think you need current Tory MPs to vote against their own government and if that happens then the SF seats make less of a difference as each Tory MP to switch sides counts double.
Including for how "virtually every business in his constituency" have been questioned?
When you want to know what a particular group of people think you can take a sample and extrapolate from that, you don't have to go around all of them individually.
So long as its a representative sample.
I doubt a representative sample of businesses have been involved. Instead he is probably assuming what he believes is good for business.
Or, to give him some credit, he will have been approached by people who want the government to change their approach, but not by those who wish then to continue it.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Same logic applies to the SNP of course.
A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.
She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Implying the Irish government want unification. Won't it be a touch on the costly side?
Here is a policy for Priti Patel. Move all prisons out of London, 'Oop North'. That is prime London residential property. The reason they are situated in London is because they need to be near the families for visiting. That reason is very dated. Probably an EU regulation. It would be the perfect Priti Patel policy.
Yes. Those cells would be a move up into property dreamland for your average minimum wage London worker. Only 2 to a room and your own bucket (available on 50% share). Living the dream.
Or, to give him some credit, he will have been approached by people who want the government to change their approach, but not by those who wish then to continue it.
There are obviously lots of ways to get a biased sample but getting a rough idea of what your voters think is pretty much the core competence of a FPTP MP, I'd be surprised if he's way off. MPs have a lot of occasions when they talk to voters, especially ones who run businesses, they're not limited to people who approach them about this issue.
Obviously whether he's reporting what he knows honestly is another question.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Same logic applies to the SNP of course.
A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.
She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.
Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday
As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.
However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
Ah thats OK then.
Whens the next Survation?
Yougov and Mori were the gold standard in the European Parliament elections not Survation
Maybe - but EU elections are treated frivolously even by those who bother to vote!
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Implying the Irish government want unification. Won't it be a touch on the costly side?
Because spunking tons and tons of taxpayers' money on the wall on what ever bloody grands projets are in fashion this week is such an unlikely thing for a politician to do?
Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party? Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.
TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.
To be honest that's the sort of seat the Tories should give the Brexit party a free run at.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Implying the Irish government want unification. Won't it be a touch on the costly side?
Well, so is Brexit, but some things are more important than money...
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Implying the Irish government want unification. Won't it be a touch on the costly side?
It would. But it is their stated position. Try running for re-election whilst resiling from it. Emotion over economics and logic applies beyond England you know. And with far better reason.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Same logic applies to the SNP of course.
A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.
She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
Fintan O'Toole is great when writing about how things are, but not so good when proposing how to change things.
It doesn't even seem certain to me that the seven SF seats would be enough to defeat Johnson in a vote of no confidence. May won the last vote, in January, by 325 to 306. The recent by-election and the 7 SF seats would change it to 324-314. The three tigger ex-Tories might switch sides, to make it 321-317.
Beyond that I think you need current Tory MPs to vote against their own government and if that happens then the SF seats make less of a difference as each Tory MP to switch sides counts double.
Labour has two additional MPs too. Nick Boles also sits on the Opposition benches. Lady Hermon less likely to support Johnson. Would Woodcock and Lewis abstain again?
Also the Madman Theory is more effective if you have nuclear weapons that can reach your enemy's cities, rather than trying to persuade everyone you're mad enough to blow up your own.
What's Klobuchar's plan now ?
Minnesota has the bomb, she can credibly threaten to put it on a sled and smuggle it across the border into Iowa.
More generally she's been making a big deal about not attacking other Democrats. I think that means she's running for VP to Biden, at which point she will wait for him to drop dead from natural causes, or failing that shiv him with a stapler.
Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
And China's about to set another one with Hong Kong. Global best practice!
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
I'm no expert on Scottish politics, but I would suspect that implementing direct rule on Scotland would basically be like giving the SNP their Christmas and Birthday presents for the next 50 years.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
And China's about to set another one with Hong Kong. Global best practice!
Roaming County lines gangs with iron bars. By any means necessary. Fascism with good manners for the Russell Group graduates. The iron fist for the old Polys. Chained servitude for feckless non graduates.
Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Since Boris became PM Con has been polling 30% or over. Since Corbyn became LotO Lab has been underperforming. The important thing, as Blair demonstrated, is the size of the lead. If Remain remains split between LD & Lab, and the Leave vote leaves Brexit for Con, then the war is over and Con will own the 2020's. Nothing Labour is doing makes me think it grasps this fact.
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
Considering both Remain and Leave campaigners said in the referendum that we would leave the Single Market that's fair enough.
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
Considering both Remain and Leave campaigners said in the referendum that we would leave the Single Market that's fair enough.
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
Considering both Remain and Leave campaigners said in the referendum that we would leave the Single Market that's fair enough.
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
Considering both Remain and Leave campaigners said in the referendum that we would leave the Single Market that's fair enough.
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
I'm no expert on Scottish politics, but I would suspect that implementing direct rule on Scotland would basically be like giving the SNP their Christmas and Birthday presents for the next 50 years.
Britain Trump knows that the 6 counties and Scotland are lost in the case of NDB. He doesn't give a fuck as he'll have (little) England and a satrapy of mud huts to the west.
Labour has always needed its Scottish MPs to win UK GE but of course the Scots are fortunate enough to have a competent & articulate leader of a social democratic party , the SNP. No way is JC going to triumph there given his pathetic performance against Brexit & its impacts on working class voters.
In England & Wales - the 'Corbyn factor' will destroy Labour's chances too. His polling as a leader is the worst in Labour history. The Labour Party will lose both traditional Working class voters alienated from his Islington Hard Left Socialism, his perceived issues on UK defence, security and the economy and for the important 'swing voters' his ineffectual abilities in debates, on TV, his perceived extremism and neo-Marxist sympathies will stop older, aspirational and lower middle class voters, choosng him to become the leader of great Britain. The Labour Party is charging into 'the valley of death' as it has been since 2015.
Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Since Boris became PM Con has been polling 30% or over. Since Corbyn became LotO Lab has been underperforming. The important thing, as Blair demonstrated, is the size of the lead. If Remain remains split between LD & Lab, and the Leave vote leaves Brexit for Con, then the war is over and Con will own the 2020's. Nothing Labour is doing makes me think it grasps this fact.
Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Since Boris became PM Con has been polling 30% or over. Since Corbyn became LotO Lab has been underperforming. The important thing, as Blair demonstrated, is the size of the lead. If Remain remains split between LD & Lab, and the Leave vote leaves Brexit for Con, then the war is over and Con will own the 2020's. Nothing Labour is doing makes me think it grasps this fact.
Are you HYUFD II ? Or, do you work shifts ?
No I'm not. Plainly. I don't like the scenario he outlines and I wish it were not happening. But it fits the facts, all the incoming info is compatible with it, and nobody is proposing a better theory. So I'll stick with it until the facts make me think different. They may well do so, and if they do I will change my mind, but until then not.
Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Since Boris became PM Con has been polling 30% or over. Since Corbyn became LotO Lab has been underperforming. The important thing, as Blair demonstrated, is the size of the lead. If Remain remains split between LD & Lab, and the Leave vote leaves Brexit for Con, then the war is over and Con will own the 2020's. Nothing Labour is doing makes me think it grasps this fact.
Are you HYUFD II ? Or, do you work shifts ?
No I'm not. Plainly. I don't like the scenario he outlines and I wish it were not happening. But it fits the facts, all the incoming info is compatible with it, and nobody is proposing a better theory. So I'll stick with it until the facts make me think different. They may well do so, and if they do I will change my mind, but until then not.
The current lead in polls overall is small, if this is the limit of the Boris bounce before he has to actually make any tough decisions then there is every reason to think he will struggle come an election.
Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Yes, but its 'the swing voters' Lab need in seats in South East/Midlands like Watford, Stevenage, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Telford and Worcester etc., and you do not get these 'swing seats' with Corbyn.
Lab. lost with Kinnock (92), Miliband (2015) and Corbyn (2017) because they could not get those swing seats. With days of the tabloid headlines including the Murdoch Sun, Mail, Express etc blasting these leaders as dangerous to Britain I would say Corbyn's chances are nil.
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Basically Remainiacs need tactical voting on an unprecedented scale, most of it defending Lab incumbents. I wouldn't say it's impossible but I think fear is the appropriate emotion for Remain people right now, and for Lab incumbents in particular.
Indeed, I cannot believe the Tory party think they can convert Labour voters in significant chunks to vote for them. It is stupididity on a grand scale! Laughable.
Basically Remainiacs need tactical voting on an unprecedented scale, most of it defending Lab incumbents. I wouldn't say it's impossible but I think fear is the appropriate emotion for Remain people right now, and for Lab incumbents in particular.
As a Lib Dem voter in Witney, we are not Winning Here this time. I think it will happen eventually (because the area is falling more under the influence of Oxford and London, and hence becoming more progressive) but it won’t be within the next few years.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
You can’t help wondering whether they want a United Ireland in the same way that Farage and the ERG want Brexit.
All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.
The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.
The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
Or, of course, to add in Customs Union and Single Market membership. But then again, the Tory Party wouldn’t like that, so that’s totally unacceptable.
F1: qualifying today. No idea, as yet, how things stand. Mercedes likely fastest but Red Bull are doing rather well lately. Ferrari could be in the mix too.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
You can’t help wondering whether they want a United Ireland in the same way that Farage and the ERG want Brexit.
No, I think they really do want a United Ireland...
The pollsters are all like rabbits caught in the headlights. None of them has a clue what the real state of play is.
They’re all giving an almost identical message about support for No Deal parties and those opposed to crashing out. It’s 55/45 for anti-No Deal give or take a percentage point either way. What differs is the individual allocations within that.
The pollsters are all like rabbits caught in the headlights. None of them has a clue what the real state of play is.
They’re all giving an almost identical message about support for No Deal parties and those opposed to crashing out. It’s 55/45 for anti-No Deal give or take a percentage point either way. What differs is the individual allocations within that.
Your last sentence says it all. Ask Mrs May about poll accuracy.
Went to Llandrindrod Wells last Saturday. A drive of nearly 3 hours for about 7 hours canvassing. Lots of enthusiastic helpers from all over the country. Whilst perhaps not very efficient but suspect I was tempted to help in an election we might win - Leicester South being the only other Lib Dem/Liberal parliamentary election that I had helped at that we had actually won (in 52 years - spent a week at Brierley Hill in 1967)
Has anyone been to "help" at more than one party's election HQ during an election? There was no vetting of people turning up to help, perhaps asking to see membership, so if that is the case at other party offices, would be quite easy to do. Would be interesting to have an objective evaluation of each party's campaigning ability.
Used MiniVan canvassing tool on my phone for the first time - at previous elections had only been leafleting as canvassing not so important. And seemed to be lots of focuses/leaflets being delivered.
Suspect that Lib Dem election machine together with an enthused volunteer base gives us a significant advantage over other parties in terms of the the ground war? Does the Brexit party, for example, rely on the air war or do they have canvassing and leafleting as well organised as the Lib Dems?
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
Same logic applies to the SNP of course.
A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.
She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Nobody has a bloody clue how the next election is going to pan out, and frankly we probably won't have much idea until the exit poll comes out. A multi-cornered fist fight with a higher-than-usual potential for electoral pacts and tactical voting, held under FPTP, doesn't exactly make for predictability.
There's really no ideal outcome from the current political situation, although if you take my position - that the two biggest priorities are 1. the defeat of the Far Left and 2. leaving the EU, in that order - then a least worst option suggests itself... but I don't waste that much time thinking about that, because I've no power to influence any of this mess and there's no point in worrying about that which one cannot change.
My best guess as to how all this will actually pan out (as distinct from how I would like it to do so) is that what we're going to end up with is indeed an early election, followed by a Labour minority Government and Revocation. Oh joy.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.
She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
I'm not a JRM fan, but it's 'either' 'or', ie two alternatives. Not three.
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.
She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
I'm not a JRM fan, but it's 'either' 'or', ie two alternatives. Not three.
Genuine question: So how should I have structured that sentence?
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Set yourself free. Leave the racists to it. It feels good, believe me.
The pollsters are all like rabbits caught in the headlights. None of them has a clue what the real state of play is.
They’re all giving an almost identical message about support for No Deal parties and those opposed to crashing out. It’s 55/45 for anti-No Deal give or take a percentage point either way. What differs is the individual allocations within that.
Sure, but the FPTP system could give the no-deal parties a massive landslide if Boris can drive the BXP down as consolidate the no-deal vote.
The Lib Dems and Greens can cut all the deals they want, Labour will never enter a "remain alliance" under Corbyns leadership.
Boris can impose direct rule in Scotland and Northern Ireland if necessary while keeping open the Irish border with a technical solution.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
What I find most remarkable (next to the advocacy of iron-fisted Spanish tactics to deal with secession) is this notion that the UK must be held together at all costs. If Scotland and Northern Ireland develop a determination to go, then why on Earth should we seek to stop them? It's pointless.
Besides anything else, think for a moment about the example of Quebec. Quebec is a pain in the arse. Arguably the most important reason for the Canadian Government to strive so hard to keep hold of it is, therefore, that its loss would've cut Anglophone Canada in two, and left the Atlantic provinces isolated and contemplating whether or not they might be better off joining the US. This problem does not apply to the UK. There are no territories the other side of Scotland and Northern Ireland from which we could conceivably feel cut off. And if Canada had been in a similar situation they might very well have quietly let Quebec slip away.
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Don't leave the party. It is your party, not that of the Entryists. Keep going to meetings and give the loons a hard time.
Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...
The pollsters are all like rabbits caught in the headlights. None of them has a clue what the real state of play is.
They’re all giving an almost identical message about support for No Deal parties and those opposed to crashing out. It’s 55/45 for anti-No Deal give or take a percentage point either way. What differs is the individual allocations within that.
Sure, but the FPTP system could give the no-deal parties a massive landslide if Boris can drive the BXP down as consolidate the no-deal vote.
The Lib Dems and Greens can cut all the deals they want, Labour will never enter a "remain alliance" under Corbyns leadership.
A 1983 type result isn’t impossible
I agree. But I think it’s highly unlikely. There was no tactical voting in 1983.
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Don't leave the party. It is your party, not that of the Entryists. Keep going to meetings and give the loons a hard time.
Edit: And make sure that your Treasurer's Reports last a good half hour to bore them all rigid!
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
I'm not a JRM fan, but it's 'either' 'or', ie two alternatives. Not three.
Genuine question: So how should I have structured that sentence?
Suggest the following: There are three possibilities; HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Why don’t you f*ck off and join the Tories?
He seems more sensible than that. I am sure he would be welcome in the LibDems (or Greens, according to preference)
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Don't leave the party. It is your party, not that of the Entryists. Keep going to meetings and give the loons a hard time.
Edit: And make sure that your Treasurer's Reports last a good half hour to bore them all rigid!
That would either be noble or futile. Or possibly both. It takes a special person to bring so much grief down upon themselves; for most of us it is a hobby, after all.
Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...
The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
O’Toole is on R4 now explaining his gambit, as is an SF MP who doesn’t seem very impressed. The SF guy thinks the appeal of boycotting Westminster (active abstentionism, as he calls it) is a large part of why he was elected, votes wouldn’t necessarily transfer to an anti-Brexit candidate who intends to enter parliament.
Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
I'm not a JRM fan, but it's 'either' 'or', ie two alternatives. Not three.
Genuine question: So how should I have structured that sentence?
'There are three possibilities: HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark; he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting; or he has gone totally bonkers.'
Or you could have done it as a list, thus:
'There are three possibilities:
1) HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark;
2) he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting;
Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
hard border even if No Deal)
Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
I'm not a JRM fan, but it's 'either' 'or', ie two alternatives. Not three.
Genuine question: So how should I have structured that sentence?
Suggest the following: There are three possibilities; HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...
The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
At 6am its far more dangerous to sit in lane 3 getting undertaken by 2 lanes!
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Why don’t you f*ck off and join the Tories?
He seems more sensible than that. I am sure he would be welcome in the LibDems (or Greens, according to preference)
I would have thought he'd be happier in the Greens. I would join, but for their attitude to medical experimentation on animals. Since I would be dead without the benefits from medicines, many of which have been made available because of such experimentations I cannot in good conscience join.
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Don't leave the party. It is your party, not that of the Entryists. Keep going to meetings and give the loons a hard time.
Edit: And make sure that your Treasurer's Reports last a good half hour to bore them all rigid!
That would either be noble or futile. Or possibly both. It takes a special person to bring so much grief down upon themselves; for most of us it is a hobby, after all.
I'm startled to learn that bringing grief down on people is a hobby of yours. Seems a bit - odd.
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Don't leave the party. It is your party, not that of the Entryists. Keep going to meetings and give the loons a hard time.
I just can't pretend that I have the energy left to do it any more. It's turning me into a horrible cynic. I have an underlying streak of cynicism anyway, and I need to do something for a positive reason, not a negative one.
Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
Don't leave the party. It is your party, not that of the Entryists. Keep going to meetings and give the loons a hard time.
I just can't pretend that I have the energy left to do it any more. It's turning me into a horrible cynic. I have an underlying streak of cynicism anyway, and I need to do something for a positive reason, not a negative one.
I'm still mulling.
Can you tell us more about the debate? What sort of things were said?
Comments
Including for how "virtually every business in his constituency" have been questioned?
Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
I doubt a representative sample of businesses have been involved. Instead he is probably assuming what he believes is good for business.
It doesn't even seem certain to me that the seven SF seats would be enough to defeat Johnson in a vote of no confidence. May won the last vote, in January, by 325 to 306. The recent by-election and the 7 SF seats would change it to 324-314. The three tigger ex-Tories might switch sides, to make it 321-317.
Beyond that I think you need current Tory MPs to vote against their own government and if that happens then the SF seats make less of a difference as each Tory MP to switch sides counts double.
A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.
She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
Most things usually don't happen.
Only 2 to a room and your own bucket (available on 50% share). Living the dream.
Obviously whether he's reporting what he knows honestly is another question.
Spain has already set a precedent when it sent riot police and the Civil Guard into Catalonia when the Catalan government tried to hold an independence referendum and then declare independence, before Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia and forced Catalan nationalist leaders into exile.
On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.
Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
More generally she's been making a big deal about not attacking other Democrats. I think that means she's running for VP to Biden, at which point she will wait for him to drop dead from natural causes, or failing that shiv him with a stapler.
In England & Wales - the 'Corbyn factor' will destroy Labour's chances too. His polling as a leader is the worst in Labour history. The Labour Party will lose both traditional Working class voters alienated from his Islington Hard Left Socialism, his perceived issues on UK defence, security and the economy and for the important 'swing voters' his ineffectual abilities in debates, on TV, his perceived extremism and neo-Marxist sympathies will stop older, aspirational and lower middle class voters, choosng him to become the leader of great Britain. The Labour Party is charging into 'the valley of death' as it has been since 2015.
https://twitter.com/PippaN15/status/1157382969562140675?s=20
https://twitter.com/PippaN15/status/1157382971713826817?s=20
Lab. lost with Kinnock (92), Miliband (2015) and Corbyn (2017) because they could not get those swing seats. With days of the tabloid headlines including the Murdoch Sun, Mail, Express etc blasting these leaders as dangerous to Britain I would say Corbyn's chances are nil.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
- go quite a way down to say #44, Blackpool South:
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/constituencies/uk-parliament/blackpool-south
Limit the Con losses to BXP so they match the Lab losses. Take a chunk of Remainiac and people sick of Corbyn and move them to LD. Outcome: Ouch.
Can LD make up for that? Most of their targets are Tory, but say #40 is Witney. They could do it but it would be quite a heroic performance.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Basically Remainiacs need tactical voting on an unprecedented scale, most of it defending Lab incumbents. I wouldn't say it's impossible but I think fear is the appropriate emotion for Remain people right now, and for Lab incumbents in particular.
F1: qualifying today. No idea, as yet, how things stand. Mercedes likely fastest but Red Bull are doing rather well lately. Ferrari could be in the mix too.
I do find some of the EE ones a tad depressing - greater trust in international bodies than each other or their politicians,
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1157395907207450625?s=21
Has anyone been to "help" at more than one party's election HQ during an election? There was no vetting of people turning up to help, perhaps asking to see membership, so if that is the case at other party offices, would be quite easy to do. Would be interesting to have an objective evaluation of each party's campaigning ability.
Used MiniVan canvassing tool on my phone for the first time - at previous elections had only been leafleting as canvassing not so important. And seemed to be lots of focuses/leaflets being delivered.
Suspect that Lib Dem election machine together with an enthused volunteer base gives us a significant advantage over other parties in terms of the the ground war? Does the Brexit party, for example, rely on the air war or do they have canvassing and leafleting as well organised as the Lib Dems?
Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
There's really no ideal outcome from the current political situation, although if you take my position - that the two biggest priorities are 1. the defeat of the Far Left and 2. leaving the EU, in that order - then a least worst option suggests itself... but I don't waste that much time thinking about that, because I've no power to influence any of this mess and there's no point in worrying about that which one cannot change.
My best guess as to how all this will actually pan out (as distinct from how I would like it to do so) is that what we're going to end up with is indeed an early election, followed by a Labour minority Government and Revocation. Oh joy.
Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...
The Lib Dems and Greens can cut all the deals they want, Labour will never enter a "remain alliance" under Corbyns leadership.
A 1983 type result isn't impossible
Besides anything else, think for a moment about the example of Quebec. Quebec is a pain in the arse. Arguably the most important reason for the Canadian Government to strive so hard to keep hold of it is, therefore, that its loss would've cut Anglophone Canada in two, and left the Atlantic provinces isolated and contemplating whether or not they might be better off joining the US. This problem does not apply to the UK. There are no territories the other side of Scotland and Northern Ireland from which we could conceivably feel cut off. And if Canada had been in a similar situation they might very well have quietly let Quebec slip away.
Or you could have done it as a list, thus:
'There are three possibilities:
1) HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark;
2) he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting;
3) he has gone totally bonkers.'
I'm still mulling.