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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes poll with LAB in lead might put the mockers on an e

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".

    Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...

    Don't leave the party. It is your party, not that of the Entryists. Keep going to meetings and give the loons a hard time.

    Edit: And make sure that your Treasurer's Reports last a good half hour to bore them all rigid!
    That would either be noble or futile. Or possibly both. It takes a special person to bring so much grief down upon themselves; for most of us it is a hobby, after all.
    I'm startled to learn that bringing grief down on people is a hobby of yours. Seems a bit - odd.
    lol. I must have been reading too many HY posts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426


    Suggest the following:
    There are three possibilities; HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.

    Your Venerable Cheerful Majesty, I hate to be picky* but you should have had a colon at the start of your list then semi-colons to break up the list itself.

    *This may be the most unconvincing lie since Corbyn said he was pro-EU.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
    At 6am its far more dangerous to sit in lane 3 getting undertaken by 2 lanes!
    Is there any evidence as to whether the US Freeway system is better or worse, from both a safety and capacity viewpoint? There must be less lane changing, helping both, but on the other hand less imperative to free up the outside lanes for the faster traffic.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    It's the weekend day-trippers from "up north" causing the trouble surely ?? ..... :innocent:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".

    Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...

    Difficult to comment without seeing what disturbed you so much, but pretty much everyone in Parliament has been to events where you don't sign up to some of the other people there, without actually walking out. I remember attending a party conference where one of the speakers was an Afghan leader so enthusiastic about British and US intervention that he praised a US bombing raid that had accidentally killed all the family of one of his supporters - "We need to be ready to make such sacrifices". The Iraqi trade union leader sitting next me said, "That's ridiculous, he's a fanatic", but did either of us walk oiut? No. Maybe we should have? No - the event wasn't about him.

    We will almost certainly shortly have an election in which there will be a direct choice of whether or not to give a decisive majority to Boris Johnson. Do you really think it's right to weaken the effort at this particular point? I like JC, you don't, but either way he's unlikely to get an overall majority and unlikely to serve more than one Parliament. Realistic outcomes are a Johnson No Deal majority or an uneasy majority of more or less Remain parties who will (we hope) negotiate a path out of the mess. We don't know each other, and of course you should do whatever you think right, but if you effectively assist an overall Johnson majority by walking away at this point, I'd have thought that you'd look back on it with real regret. No?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
    At 6am its far more dangerous to sit in lane 3 getting undertaken by 2 lanes!
    Is there any evidence as to whether the US Freeway system is better or worse, from both a safety and capacity viewpoint? There must be less lane changing, helping both, but on the other hand less imperative to free up the outside lanes for the faster traffic.
    I would have thought outside New York and Los Angeles the fact they have so much more capacity anyway would render a comparison rather meaningless.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Interesting analysis - wonder what the next tranche will show:

    https://twitter.com/PippaN15/status/1157382971713826817?s=20

    Interesting that the UK has one of the most pronounced inter-generational trends.
    And entirely consistent with the EURef vote - the older, the less trusting of international organisations.

    I do find some of the EE ones a tad depressing - greater trust in international bodies than each other or their politicians,
    It's the considerable increase in trust in international organisations in UK that's noteworthy
    If you mean “increase over time” you may be looking at the wrong graph as overtime it’s pretty flat and below our trust of our own politicians or each other. It’s the second set of graphs - the cohort analysis which shows the Young much more trusting of international institutions than their elders - and much less trusting of each other, which I find a little sad. That said, as of 2016 I’d say the UK was in a pretty healthy place compared to some of our less fortunate European neighbours, where we are now, time will tell.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't decide whether the shark has been utterly jumped here, or it is left field brilliance:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157344391926882313

    Sounds like the most far fetched bonkers to me.
    Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
    hard border even if No Deal)
    Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
    Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
    On that basis Boris could impose direct rule from London on Edinburgh and Belfast and force Sturgeon to join Puigdemont in exile in Brussels.

    Plus the UK government at least allowed Scotland 1 independence referendum, Spain did not allow Catalonia any and Boris could plausibly argue Quebec only had a 2nd independence referendum from Canada 15 years after the first
    Either HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.

    Shall we run a poll to determine which it is?
    I'm not a JRM fan, but it's 'either' 'or', ie two alternatives. Not three.
    Genuine question: So how should I have structured that sentence?
    Suggest the following:
    There are three possibilities; HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.
    I refer you to the 2002 Huddleston and Pullum (et al.), The Cambridge Grammar of the English Language, pages 361 and 388. "Either, or" can be used for more than two alternatives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    This thread has

    lost its head

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't decide whether the shark has been utterly jumped here, or it is left field brilliance:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157344391926882313

    Sounds like the most far fetched bonkers to me.
    Most importantly, why would Sinn Fein actually want to stop a No Deal Brexit? It is the most likely thing that would lead to them achieving their primary goal of a unite Ireland.
    They obviously would oppose it, Sinn Fein want an open border between North snd South and a united Ireland.

    Though the polling shows most Catholics back a United Ireland with a hard border most Protestants still back staying in the UK even if it means a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (though Boris still wants a technical solution to avoid a hard border even if No Deal)
    Sinn Fein want a united Ireland. The best way to achieve that is for the British Government to force the people of Northern Ireland to choose between reunification or a hard border.
    Sinn Fein are far from alone in that view amongst the Republic's political parties however. Using such logic, why would the Irish government lift a finger to prevent No Deal?
    Same logic applies to the SNP of course.

    A messy no deal brexit leading the the break up of the union is her ultimate fantasy. Of course she's got to be seen to do everything possible to avoid it.

    She must adore having Boris as PM, such as east target to blame for everything.
    Boris is an easy target because he was to blame for much of what got us here, and will be completely to blame for what happens as long as he's pm. Of course those who voted for this outcome, the Tories and for Boris should share some of it, but as ever, voters seem curiously unwilling to hold their hands up.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    edited August 2019
    Icarus said:



    Has anyone been to "help" at more than one party's election HQ during an election? There was no vetting of people turning up to help, perhaps asking to see membership, so if that is the case at other party offices, would be quite easy to do. Would be interesting to have an objective evaluation of each party's campaigning ability.

    Suspect that Lib Dem election machine together with an enthused volunteer base gives us a significant advantage over other parties in terms of the the ground war? Does the Brexit party, for example, rely on the air war or do they have canvassing and leafleting as well organised as the Lib Dems?

    Matthew Parris once spent a couple of days on Tory and Labour canvass teams in his journalist role - it sounded pretty similar. I think the efficiency depends massively on who's running the local effort. There is no shortage of Labour volunteers (and almost never has been), but I've been to efforts which were ruthlessly efficient as you describe (Mitcham and Morden stood out in that way), and others which were a shambles where people milled around talking to each other.

    The BXP effort seems a bit North Korean - they have lots of helpers, who pour into a seat and get thrown at the voters in human waves, with very little effective canvassing. They're very good at showing a presence, but crap at identifying and gettong out their voters.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".

    Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...

    Difficult to comment without seeing what disturbed you so much, but pretty much everyone in Parliament has been to events where you don't sign up to some of the other people there, without actually walking out. I remember attending a party conference where one of the speakers was an Afghan leader so enthusiastic about British and US intervention that he praised a US bombing raid that had accidentally killed all the family of one of his supporters - "We need to be ready to make such sacrifices". The Iraqi trade union leader sitting next me said, "That's ridiculous, he's a fanatic", but did either of us walk oiut? No. Maybe we should have? No - the event wasn't about him.

    We will almost certainly shortly have an election in which there will be a direct choice of whether or not to give a decisive majority to Boris Johnson. Do you really think it's right to weaken the effort at this particular point? I like JC, you don't, but either way he's unlikely to get an overall majority and unlikely to serve more than one Parliament. Realistic outcomes are a Johnson No Deal majority or an uneasy majority of more or less Remain parties who will (we hope) negotiate a path out of the mess. We don't know each other, and of course you should do whatever you think right, but if you effectively assist an overall Johnson majority by walking away at this point, I'd have thought that you'd look back on it with real regret. No?
    And that's the political system in 2019 in a nutshell. We are implored to throw ourselves into one pile of excrement on the basis that it smells slightly less bad than the other.

    The only continuing purpose to the existence of both the Labour and the Conservative Parties is as a repository of votes for people who hate the opposing camp, are terrified of it, or both. End of.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    JackW said:

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    It's the weekend day-trippers from "up north" causing the trouble surely ?? ..... :innocent:
    No - they don't allow our donkey carts on the motorway.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    NEW THREAD
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Rentool, do loons include people who deny McDonnell's words (which have been recorded) and prefer to deride those who point out what he actually said?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    ydoethur said:


    Suggest the following:
    There are three possibilities; HYUFD has got the hang of this trolling lark, he necked 2 bottles of Absinthe prior to posting or he has gone totally bonkers.

    Your Venerable Cheerful Majesty, I hate to be picky* but you should have had a colon at the start of your list then semi-colons to break up the list itself.

    *This may be the most unconvincing lie since Corbyn said he was pro-EU.
    You are quite right, of course. Anyway if I was being picky, others have the right to be the same on my posts!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Icarus said:



    Has anyone been to "help" at more than one party's election HQ during an election? There was no vetting of people turning up to help, perhaps asking to see membership, so if that is the case at other party offices, would be quite easy to do. Would be interesting to have an objective evaluation of each party's campaigning ability.

    (snip) Does the Brexit party, for example, rely on the air war or do they have canvassing and leafleting ?

    (snip) There is no shortage of Labour volunteers, but I've been to efforts which were ruthlessly efficient as you describe (Mitcham and Morden stood out in that way), and others which were a shambles where people milled around talking to each other.

    The BXP effort seems a bit North Korean - they have lots of helpers, who pour into a seat and get thrown at the voters in human waves, with very little effective canvassing. They're very good at showing a presence, but crap at identifying and gettong out their voters.
    "Ruthlessly efficient" can be counter-productive, except perhaps on polling day. It's a human operation reliant upon goodwill, and in a long campaign you want people to feel motivated and to come back. A bit of standing around, tea and cake etc. is important to keep people keen and build a team spirit; no-one is going to enjoy driving for four hours and then be ordered out the second they walk into election HQ.

    I didn't see any BXP activity on the ground in B&R, but various stunts of the type Nick mentions apparently took place. As he says, it seems to be about publicity and impact rather than the traditional grind to collect and use data. The plane and banner was the pinnacle of such tactics.

    In years past there were tales of people pretending to be volunteers and walking off with lots of leaflets which then got dumped. I've not heard of someone playing the longer game of gathering intel (but then if it's done well, would you ever know?). In B&R our volunteers were required to sign in with personal details and to state whether they were members (needed for data protection rules) - the membership database is online so it would be easy to run a quick check. Volunteers nowadays also need the software and logins for the online canvass system, which both makes it more difficult to be an imposter and only reveals voter information one property at a time, unlike physical canvass cards which often contained a wealth of voter ID.

    The closest I ever got was when delivering an eve of poll for my very first election as candidate in the same road as the Tories were doing their usual fake polling card drop, and noting down the houses they were visiting. When I got back to base I was concerned to see that they seemed to have many of our voters down on their promises list, but at the count it became apparent it was they who should have been worrying.
This discussion has been closed.