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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes poll with LAB in lead might put the mockers on an e

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes poll with LAB in lead might put the mockers on an early election

Latest @IpsosMORI with changes on GE2017CON 34% (-9.5)LAB 24% (-17)LDs 20% (+12.4)BREX 9% (+9)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    Wrong poll you have posted I think
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Polling companies havent got a scoobie doo if the range is +10 to -1.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Mike has posted the wrong poll, here it is: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1157392760112123905

    How did ComRes do at the EU Elections?
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited August 2019
    I think Boris repels voters back to Labour.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    HYUFD said:

    Wrong poll you have posted I think

    Is that you, Yoda? :p
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited August 2019
    Even with Comres though Tories up 1% but 3% swing from LD to Labour.

    Remember though before the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wrong poll you have posted I think

    Is that you, Yoda? :p
    The boy has no patience!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    ComRes have gone from saying Boris Johnson would lead the Tories to 150 seat plus majority to being 1% behind in the space of a few weeks.

    ComRes does not stand for Comedy Results, honest.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited August 2019
    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    It is an utterly shallow and obvious ploy to get positive coverage. Gordon Brown exhibited similar behaviour in 2007. I have utter contempt for Johnson as he is using other peoples misfortune to help boost his own flagging Premiership. The non-Brexit supporting media should call him out on abusing his office in this way.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    Why has OGH included the Ipsos-Mori?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    The_Taxman said:

    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    It is an utterly shallow and obvious ploy to get positive coverage. Gordon Brown exhibited similar behaviour in 2007. I have utter contempt for Johnson as he is using other peoples misfortune to help boost his own flagging Premiership. The non-Brexit supporting media should call him out on abusing his office in this way.
    Damned if he does, etc.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Why has OGH included the Ipsos-Mori?

    Belay that! It's ComRes now!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    It is fairly clear he is obsessed with erections
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    It is fairly clear he is obsessed with erections
    There's a garden centre near me that sells sheds. They have a massive sign facing the main road saying "free erections", which always makes laugh.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Correct ComRes poll now used
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Evening all :)

    It seems Boris is good news for Labour as well as those determined to see the back of him run back to Labour from the LDs.

    CON+BP=44%
    LAB+LD+Green = 51%

    The Con-BP split here is in stark contrast to Ipsos-Mori so a lot of poll volatility.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    This is a million times cubed

    https://twitter.com/CJTerry/status/1157394886125150210
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    It is fairly clear he is obsessed with erections
    There's a garden centre near me that sells sheds. They have a massive sign facing the main road saying "free erections", which always makes laugh.
    I am a fan of the single entendre
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited August 2019
    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    That's nothing, you should see what Trump has been saying.

    During the rally at U.S. Bank Arena, he said: “The things we’re doing in our country today, there’s never been anything like it. We will be ending the AIDS epidemic shortly in America, and curing childhood cancer very shortly.”

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/why-trumps-rhetoric-about-curing-cancer-and-aids-unbelievable
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    Was trying, in vain, to point out that Boris' elevation had had one other noticeable effect. That of putting Labour back in a clear second in the last 6 polls. Something they hadn't consistently been for a while. Nick Palmer's analysis seems sound. Boris repels a lot of folk. (Not me. I find him far less off putting than the curtain twitching May, but I am one of life's Cavaliers).
    They will back the best placed challenger. Yesterday that was LDs in B+R, most places Labour.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    26-28 July - fieldwork quite old, and we're heading into holiday season. I'm not sure we should read too much from this.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    It seems like only ten minutes ago we were all agreed Jeremy Corbyn is leading Labour to its doom. A week is a long time in politics and so is a thread.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    He was elected to shore up a crumbling edifice.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    FPT

    I wouldn't draw many conclusions from one poll, or indeed one by-election. But I think that at present voting is being driven most by two questions: "Are you for or against Brexit?" and "Do you like Boris Johnson?" The effect is:

    Yes/Yes: Con
    Yes/No: BXP, or tactically Con
    No/Yes: Con or LibDem, depending which matters most to you
    No/No: Lab or LibDem, whichever seems best able to win - and in most seats that is felt to be Lab

    Issues like "What do you think of Corbyn/Swinson?" and "Do you approve of austerity?" have faded almost completely into the background.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    rcs1000 said:

    26-28 July - fieldwork quite old, and we're heading into holiday season. I'm not sure we should read too much from this.

    It lines up pretty much exactly with all the other recently released polls, including YouGov and IPSOS.

    It's not really out of date at all.
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,768
    glw said:

    tlg86 said:

    I didn't know that Boris was a structural engineer.

    That's nothing, you should see what Trump has been saying.

    During the rally at U.S. Bank Arena, he said: “The things we’re doing in our country today, there’s never been anything like it. We will be ending the AIDS epidemic shortly in America, and curing childhood cancer very shortly.”

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/why-trumps-rhetoric-about-curing-cancer-and-aids-unbelievable
    These theories about Trump having early stage dementia are becoming more believable by the day.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Why hasn't Swinson stopped BREXIT yet?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I have a question. Is it possible for a Leave voter to be a diehard remainer?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    bigjohnowls said:

    Why hasn't Swinson stopped BREXIT yet?

    Jezza won't let her.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    edited August 2019
    SandyRentool said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Why hasn't Swinson stopped BREXIT yet?

    Jezza won't let her.
    Now that got me thinking. What if Jezza is the mastermind behind the whole global Zionist conspiracy?

    On that bombshell...
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    It seems like only ten minutes ago we were all agreed Jeremy Corbyn is leading Labour to its doom. A week is a long time in politics and so is a thread.

    The 2017 election showed that the more people thought he wouldn’t win, the more they were prepared to vote for him.

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Lib Dem’s would be 20 points ahead if they got rid of Jo Swinson
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    alex. said:

    I have a question. Is it possible for a Leave voter to be a diehard remainer?

    I think by HY criteria then yes, if you oppose No Deal and May's Deal.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    alex. said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    It seems like only ten minutes ago we were all agreed Jeremy Corbyn is leading Labour to its doom. A week is a long time in politics and so is a thread.

    The 2017 election showed that the more people thought he wouldn’t win, the more they were prepared to vote for him.

    According to what evidence though?

    Corbyn's personal ratings went from negative to positive during the campaign and his party's roll ratings increased 15 points.

    That doesn't happen because people think he won't win.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    alex. said:

    I have a question. Is it possible for a Leave voter to be a diehard remainer?

    No but its entirely possible that the 4 leave voters in chez BJO prefer Remain to No Deal
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

    As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce, the Tories are up 1%.

    However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
    That was Comedy Results at its finest.

    EDIT: That's weird, how has this post come through before the post its replying to?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited August 2019
    bigjohnowls said:

    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

    As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

    However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Comedy Results?

    J/k. This is odd and disappointing.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Some notes on this poll

    i) The fieldwork is actually before the latest Yougov and only goes over the first half of the IPSOS Mori time period. It being released after those dates makes it appear as if though it's a newer poll, it isn't and the true underlying opinion of Labour won't change from 22% to 30% then back to 24% in a couple of days.

    ii) It is a high side outlier for Labour only, Labour hasn't polled 30% since the european parliament elections.

    iii) If you take all the most recent polls by each of the polling companies since the inception of the Johnson Ministry, the Tories average 30.75% with a standard deviation of 0.02, Labour is on 26.75% with an S Dev of 0.032.

    My initial thought is this is could be a high side outlier for Labour, but it might not be.

    If you think it is an outlier then the probable lead for the Tories is 7%, if you include this poll then the Tory polling lead is 4%.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

    As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

    However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
    That was Comedy Results at its finest.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,310
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It seems Boris is good news for Labour as well as those determined to see the back of him run back to Labour from the LDs.

    CON+BP=44%
    LAB+LD+Green = 51%

    The Con-BP split here is in stark contrast to Ipsos-Mori so a lot of poll volatility.

    Yes but the Con+BP figure has been static at 45% or very close to it for a long while now.

    Nothing has changed.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    The BJohnson honeymoon – could it be over?
    Mike Smithson

    The J Swinson honeymoon could it be over?
    BJO
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    edited August 2019
    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    HYUFD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

    As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

    However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
    Ah thats OK then.

    Whens the next Survation?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited August 2019
    dixiedean said:

    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

    TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    bigjohnowls said:

    HYUFD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

    As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

    However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
    Ah thats OK then.

    Whens the next Survation?
    Yougov and Mori were the gold standard in the European Parliament elections not Survation
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Boris' honeymoon will last a month more as his novelty coincides with the Silly Season and the EU institutions long August break. Nothing is happening but he's new media product so he'll be able to get soft coverage for little effort. Once September arrives he's very very vulnerable. He's tied everything to doing something epochal that a majority of Parliament opposes, polarises the country and may well cause civil unrest. All the Commons needs to do is force him into another A50 extension and he's in the quicksand. If he calls an election his honeymoon ends as broadcasting balance rules kick in.

    He's launched his Premiership by actually narrowing further the narrow options he inherited from his predecessor. It's just he's dazzled us with a display of " Madman theory ". But Madman theory requires a degree of executive agency a PM with a majority against him in the Commons may not have.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    edited August 2019
    As @Bigjohnowls points out perhaps it isn't Boris that has the worry on this poll, maybe it's Swinson. Down 3 points with top polling company Comres after barely scraping home in Brecon which was the 13th easiest Tory held LD target !

    Wheels falling off the remain alliance.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Depends if you think EU Election results are a good predictor of GE Elections I suppose. Mostly every pollster got GE17 wrong and most got EU19 wrong. No pollster has been consistently right.

    I think Survation had the best track record up to the EU Elections, I believe they called 2015, referendum and 2017 all correctly when no other pollsters did.

    Basically, nobody knows.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157401012371623938
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

    TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
    I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.
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    StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    HYUFD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

    As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

    However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
    Oh give it up man.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    HYUFD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    HYUFD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Wheres HYUFD?

    I am sure he will have an explanation of the Boris unbounce.

    Prsumably needs just to promise to leave without a deal by next Friday

    As I posted earlier technically there is a Boris bounce even on this poll, the Tories are up 1%.

    However Comres also has a bigger 3% swing from the LDs to Labour but I would point out in the European Parliament elections Comres had Labour 8% ahead of the LDs and the LDs ended up 6% ahead of Labour
    Ah thats OK then.

    Whens the next Survation?
    Yougov and Mori were the gold standard in the European Parliament elections not Survation
    The next European Elections are a while away.

    Survation are GE Gold Standard
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

    TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
    I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.
    To be honest that's the sort of seat the Tories should give the Brexit party a free run at.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157401012371623938

    Tory Party up in arms about having a crook as candidate...Who'd have thought it? Corbyn and Labour at least had the wit to campaign for the recall of Onasanya.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    I note that the press are referring to the Home Secretary as 'Priti'. The next 'Boris'?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited August 2019
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

    TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
    I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.
    Any Labour seat over 60% Leave must certainly be a Brexit Party target, especially if the Tories have no hope there and Tory voters might tactically vote Brexit Party to beat Labour
  • Options
    StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Pulpstar said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

    TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
    I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.
    To be honest that's the sort of seat the Tories should give the Brexit party a free run at.
    Thus ensuring the Lib Dems win Staffordshire South.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

    TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
    I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.
    Any Labour seat over 60% Leave must certainly be a Brexit Party target, especially if the Tories have no hope there and might tactically vote Brexit Party to beat Labour
    We shall see. Thanks for the debate this evening - all good fun.

    Night all.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    And from ComRes of all pollsters - the Brexiteers' old Gold Standard!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    YellowSubmarine said:

    He's launched his Premiership by actually narrowing further the narrow options he inherited from his predecessor. It's just he's dazzled us with a display of " Madman theory ". But Madman theory requires a degree of executive agency a PM with a majority against him in the Commons may not have.

    Also the Madman Theory is more effective if you have nuclear weapons that can reach your enemy's cities, rather than trying to persuade everyone you're mad enough to blow up your own.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Okay, so predict this.

    Johnson is VONCd and an election occurs.

    What does the BXP do in that scenario? This is assuming GE before Brexit and I imagine an extension would have had to have occured.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    edmundintokyo said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    He's launched his Premiership by actually narrowing further the narrow options he inherited from his predecessor. It's just he's dazzled us with a display of " Madman theory ". But Madman theory requires a degree of executive agency a PM with a majority against him in the Commons may not have.

    Also the Madman Theory is more effective if you have nuclear weapons that can reach your enemy's cities, rather than trying to persuade everyone you're mad enough to blow up your own.
    What's Klobuchar's plan now ?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Last night's result must surely make Labour's switch to Remain easier. Yet again TBP substantially underperformed at a Westminster poll. And failed to produce a ground game in a by-election. How on Earth would they propose to have a presence on the doorstep in a GE without a membership or local Party?
    Thoughts of them sweeping through Labour Leave seats must be receding. No matter what Flint et al think.

    TBP beat Labour in Brecon and Radnor last night and Powys was only 53.7% Leave
    I'm convinced. Brexit Party to gain Hartlepool.
    Any Labour seat over 60% Leave must certainly be a Brexit Party target, especially if the Tories have no hope there and Tory voters might tactically vote Brexit Party to beat Labour
    The problem is. Theoretically the Brexit Party has a number of targets where theoretically they could win. However, when real elections for Westminster seats take place, they dismally undershoot expectations across a wide range of very different constituencies.
    Just as UKIP before them did.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    SandyRentool said:

    I note that the press are referring to the Home Secretary as 'Priti'. The next 'Boris'?

    The only way to get the brexit they want is to go through progressively dimmer Prime Ministers, until they get someone too thick to understand what happens if they do it.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    As we know, ComRes got the Euros very wrong - totally overstated Labour and understated LDs. Notably, though, like all other polls, this one has Labour + LDs + Greens at around 50%, significantly ahead of Tories + BXP.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,235
    You make it sound like Boris is going to have a choice in this ( although if he did he would choose Corbyn all day long and twice on VoNC days).
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157401012371623938

    Social contact reduces risk of dementia? Sounds like a report from the University of the Bleeding Obvious.

    Question is, how do we tackle isolation?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157401012371623938

    Social contact reduces risk of dementia? Sounds like a report from the University of the Bleeding Obvious.

    Question is, how do we tackle isolation?
    Prison
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is a million times cubed

    https://twitter.com/CJTerry/status/1157394886125150210

    The Tory vote is around 29-32% and the BXP Ltd. vote is deflating.

    It’s the Lab/LibDem vote that the pollsters can’t get a fix on.

    Which is actually a good thing - it means the forces ranged against Bozo are willing to be flexible over how he is defeated; they just need a degree of direction and organisation.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    Poor Boris. More like a bouncing bomb, really.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    RobD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Why hasn't Swinson stopped BREXIT yet?

    Jezza won't let her.
    Now that got me thinking. What if Jezza is the mastermind behind the whole global Zionist conspiracy?

    On that bombshell...
    There is more chance of next door's cat being the mastermind of a world conspiracy than Jezza.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    I see Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots (Huntingdonshire) result:was a swing from LD to Con

    Worrying times for Swinson
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots (Huntingdonshire) result:was a swing from LD to Con

    Worrying times for Swinson

    Two convincing holds for the LibDems with barely any swing at all
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    IanB2 said:

    Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””

    The Brexit virus is a terrible condition.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    ‪All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.‬
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    IanB2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is a million times cubed

    https://twitter.com/CJTerry/status/1157394886125150210

    The Tory vote is around 29-32% and the BXP Ltd. vote is deflating.

    It’s the Lab/LibDem vote that the pollsters can’t get a fix on.

    Which is actually a good thing - it means the forces ranged against Bozo are willing to be flexible over how he is defeated; they just need a degree of direction and organisation.
    This was tweet of the day imho:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1157265590530334720
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    https://twitter.com/WinterfellT/status/1157048115997921280?s=20
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    SouthamObserver said:

    ‪All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.‬

    The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.

    The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Britain’s towns and cities will never flourish if ‘local’ is a dirty word

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/02/britain-local-councils-public-services
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    ‪All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.‬

    The country is not on the side of revoke either, it is split down the middle.

    The only compromise was to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and do Brexit with a Deal, Parliament refused so it is now a No Deal v Revoke civil war
    That’s OK, then. At least your friend Bozo has everything under control.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots (Huntingdonshire) result:was a swing from LD to Con

    Worrying times for Swinson

    Yes, she must be practically suicidal that her party is polling in the 98th percentile of all polls since 2010, while the Labour Party is in the 9th percentile.

    Do you think we should call the Samaritans for her?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    I can't decide whether the shark has been utterly jumped here, or it is left field brilliance:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157344391926882313
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

    Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln and Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    If 'safe' Labour northern seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

    Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    edited August 2019
    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””

    The Brexit virus is a terrible condition.
    The only possible cure is an antidote. They must find someone who has shown signs of being naturally immune from the increasing madness, who has had the virus and defeated it, recovering from a severe dose and returning to something approaching sanity.

    Yes, they must feast on the blood of Dr Liam Fox.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    rottenborough said:

    I can't decide whether the shark has been utterly jumped here, or it is left field brilliance:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157344391926882313

    Sounds like the most far fetched bonkers to me.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    dixiedean said:

    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory MP: ”It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.””

    The Brexit virus is a terrible condition.
    The only possible cure is an antidote. They must find someone who has shown signs of being naturally immune from the increasing madness, who has had the virus and defeated it, recovering from a severe dose and returning to something approaching sanity.

    Yes, they must feast on the blood of Dr Liam Fox.
    Whatever meds he has been taking they appear to have turned him into One Of the Adults in the Room.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

    Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

    Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Try Flavible
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

    Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

    Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Try Flavible
    What difference does that make? The top 50 Tory target seats and the top LD target seats will still be exactly the same with the same swing required
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1157301863370436608
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

    Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

    Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Try Flavible
    Flavible seems to have become the favoured seat calculator for remainers here. Whether its any more accurate than other traditional ones remains to be seen.

    Ultimately the opinion polls now are about as useful as soaking wet paper. There isn't a snowballs chance in hell the campaign won't matter, the votes at the end of the campaign won't match polls outside of them.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

    Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

    Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Try Flavible
    What difference does that make? The top 50 Tory target seats and the top LD target seats will still be exactly the same with the same swing required
    Even on the latest poll, which is relatively good for the Tories v LibDems, Guildford falls. Other Surrey seats are becoming marginal.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Britain’s towns and cities will never flourish if ‘local’ is a dirty word

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/02/britain-local-councils-public-services

    An insightful piece. The gutting of the FE sector in particular has been pernicious. Most "left behind" towns used to have a relatively cheap, convenient place for ambitious people without much formal qualifications to "improve" themselves, and form a community of like-minded people. There was also stable employment for an educated middle class who taught there. Now there isn't.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    I can't decide whether the shark has been utterly jumped here, or it is left field brilliance:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157344391926882313

    Sounds like the most far fetched bonkers to me.
    It is certainly convoluted. And do SF care that much about Brexit to do all this?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    Philip_Thompson said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory former Cabinet member: ““We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”

    Of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour most are Leave voting marginal seats like Keighley and Blackpool South and Gower and Lincoln abd Dewsbury and Derby North and Wolverhampton South West and Vale of Clwyd Thatcher or Cameron won at least once, not safe Labour northern seats.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    If seats like Wigan and Doncaster and Hartlepool and Barnsley fall they will fall to the Brexit Party not the Tories (albeit helped by Tory tactical voting).

    Not one of the latest polls has the Tories losing a single Surrey seat to the LDs, they would even hold Guildford which the LDs won in 2001 but need a 15% swing to win now

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Try Flavible
    Flavible seems to have become the favoured seat calculator for remainers here. Whether its any more accurate than other traditional ones remains to be seen.

    Ultimately the opinion polls now are about as useful as soaking wet paper. There isn't a snowballs chance in hell the campaign won't matter, the votes at the end of the campaign won't match polls outside of them.
    You're right. The last three GEs have all come up with a result different to the polls and conventional wisdom before the campaign began. No reason this one should differ.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SouthamObserver said:

    ‪All the polls are showing a clear anti-No Deal majority. As the rhetoric ratchets up and the deadline approaches Johnson needs the country on his side. So far, he doesn’t have it. If I were a Tory that would concern me greatly.‬

    All the polls show clear anti-Everything majority.

    It would be more meaningful if you could find a pro-Anything majority.
This discussion has been closed.