The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
No, and it tends to leave all those party to it open to attack in the future. For example, if and when the LDs stand down for Plaid, they can be accused of (tepidly) supporting Welsh independence. But smaller parties may consider needs must.
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
All the BXP are doing is making Brexit even more impossible to carry out.
Of course!
I mean, if they actually win, they'll have nothing to moan about will they?
If they actually win, I can imagine Farage saying, "This is not just about Britain anymore. It's about the whole of Europe. We're going to work with like-minded countries to free the continent from the shackles of the EU. We're going to escape the trap set by Theresa May by revoking Article 50 so we can turn the tables on the Brussels bullies."
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
Those people who are nerdy enough to actively inspect the minutiae of trading Edinburgh North for Brighton III are already voting either Green or Lib Dem...
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
I am sure his hiding briefly in a shop and then running for his car, leaving local voters standing pointlessly in the rain waiting to meet him, made a great impact in Brecon. Good campaigning like that we’d welcome any time.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
All the BXP are doing is making Brexit even more impossible to carry out.
Of course!
I mean, if they actually win, they'll have nothing to moan about will they?
If they actually win, I can imagine Farage saying, "This is not just about Britain anymore. It's about the whole of Europe. We're going to work with like-minded countries to free the continent from the shackles of the EU. We're going to escape the trap set by Theresa May by revoking Article 50 so we can turn the tables on the Brussels bullies."
This is about as likely as Labour losing Birkenhead.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
The public as a whole may not like it, but enough Remainers might like it that it allows seats to be gained.
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
Another reason why a bottom up arrangement makes more sense.
If Green and LibDem members get together locally and jointly choose the best candidate, this example of co-operation could go down very well with the GBP.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
I don't know if "dimmily" is a word, but I'm very glad you've coined it. Not since @ydoethur used "febrile" has a word made me smile...
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
The Lib Dems got 3% in Brighton Kemptown in 2017 (Greens didn't bother standing). In Hove, the Lib Dems and Green got 4% combined.
Also both Brighton's Labour MPs are pretty remainy. Especially in Hove. Any Remain Alliance seeking to oust one of the architect's of the Kyle-Wilson amendment isn't much of a Remain Alliance.
Which begs the question, would a Remain Alliance have greater success if it included Labour candidates who publicly commit to remain in defiance of their leadership?
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
Yep, it's odd. It would have to be currently a Tory held seat, which would 'go green'. aint many of them.
There's Richmond Park, but I daresay the LDs might fancy their chances of getting rid of Zac Goldsmith rather better with Green assistance than the other way round.
This frenzy over the "Remain Alliance" reminds me of just before the 2015 election, when various media outlets were certain it was going to be a hung parliament, and the minor parties would be critical in determining the next PM. Forgetting, of course, that the Greens had one MP, even on a fantastic night only stood to gain two more, and could be relied upon to support Labour on most issues even without a formal agreement.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
Another reason why a bottom up arrangement makes more sense.
If Green and LibDem members get together locally and jointly choose the best candidate, this example of co-operation could go down very well with the GBP.
As someone who will be lending the LDs my vote at the GE, I am not too keen on them jumping into bed with a bunch of left wing buffoons who have policies that make Jeremy Corbyn look sensible. The Green Party are largely a bunch of communists dressed up in green invisibility cloaks
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
The public as a whole may not like it, but enough Remainers might like it that it allows seats to be gained.
It won’t matter to the voters as they will understand it is a one off Brexit election. They will lend their votes as they see fit thinking they can go back to their previous parties afterwards. However it gives labour a major headache as the LDs would not want them onboard.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
The Lib Dems got 3% in Brighton Kemptown in 2017 (Greens didn't bother standing). In Hove, the Lib Dems and Green got 4% combined.
Also both Brighton's Labour MPs are pretty remainy. Especially in Hove. Any Remain Alliance seeking to oust one of the architect's of the Kyle-Wilson amendment isn't much of a Remain Alliance.
Which begs the question, would a Remain Alliance have greater success if it included Labour candidates who publicly commit to remain in defiance of their leadership?
Listening to the Remainiacs podcast this morning, Heidi Allen was on talking about Unite to Remain and made this exact point. They would target the remain Tories to try and get them to run under an Ind banner instead, but they would not target Remain Labour MPs who could move the party more towards 2nd vote / Remain.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
An interesting notion. There's also Sheffield Central and Norwich South ?
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
All the BXP are doing is making Brexit even more impossible to carry out.
Of course!
I mean, if they actually win, they'll have nothing to moan about will they?
If they actually win, I can imagine Farage saying, "This is not just about Britain anymore. It's about the whole of Europe. We're going to work with like-minded countries to free the continent from the shackles of the EU. We're going to escape the trap set by Theresa May by revoking Article 50 so we can turn the tables on the Brussels bullies."
Indeed. He is Putin's man after all, well, unknowingly I am sure!
Instead of half-baked pacts between Remainery parties and Brexity parties to fight a Brexit election, why not just have a vote with only two options on the ballot, focussed specifically on the issue of Brexit?
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
Another reason why a bottom up arrangement makes more sense.
If Green and LibDem members get together locally and jointly choose the best candidate, this example of co-operation could go down very well with the GBP.
As someone who will be lending the LDs my vote at the GE, I am not too keen on them jumping into bed with a bunch of left wing buffoons who have policies that make Jeremy Corbyn look sensible. The Green Party are largely a bunch of communists dressed up in green invisibility cloaks
We don't much like the idea of lending our votes to austerity loving Cameroons either, so I guess we should all be unhappy and crash out of the EU, aye?
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
Another reason why a bottom up arrangement makes more sense.
If Green and LibDem members get together locally and jointly choose the best candidate, this example of co-operation could go down very well with the GBP.
As someone who will be lending the LDs my vote at the GE, I am not too keen on them jumping into bed with a bunch of left wing buffoons who have policies that make Jeremy Corbyn look sensible. The Green Party are largely a bunch of communists dressed up in green invisibility cloaks
If the LibDems have the good sense to support eco-socialist candidates, I applaud them.
Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?
As Sean F has said, one can't just shift voters around like chess pieces. In my patch, where we had a LibDem and me standing in a 2-member ward and pretty much overtly endorsed each other, my impression from the count is that roughly half the voters in both camps did what we asked. Most of the rest just voted for their own candidate and left the second vote blank (a few voted for one of us + a Tory, presumably because of personal preference).
I'm told this is pretty normal. So talking of a Con/BXP or LD/Green pact, one should probably assume that half the voters involved dutifully switch over.
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
I don't get why Skipton and Ripon was allowed as a free Green run last time round, council results and previous GE results indicate there is potentially a latent Lib Dem hinterland there. It "feels" like a place the Lib Dems could do well in (Small/Medium touristy town and only slightly leave) with plenty of soft Tory remainers rather than say a Sheffield Central (student filled city centre) which is much more solid Green potential.
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
Fantastic! Our very own Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf strikes again! Are you sure you are not editing the Daily Brexitograph?
You would have a bit more cred if you said it was a disappointing result. Boris lost, pure and simple. The phoney gloss is already wearing thin.
Instead of half-baked pacts between Remainery parties and Brexity parties to fight a Brexit election, why not just have a vote with only two options on the ballot, focussed specifically on the issue of Brexit?
We could call it a referendum.
Because it seems MPs won't honour the result of such a referendum.
Instead of half-baked pacts between Remainery parties and Brexity parties to fight a Brexit election, why not just have a vote with only two options on the ballot, focussed specifically on the issue of Brexit?
We could call it a referendum.
Because it seems MPs won't honour the result of such a referendum.
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
Fantastic! Our very own Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf strikes again! Are you sure you are not editing the Daily Brexitograph?
You would have a bit more cred if you said it was a disappointing result. Boris lost, pure and simple. The phoney gloss is already wearing thin.
10 days ago a poll had the LDs 15% ahead in Brecon under May, within a fortnight Boris slashed that lead to 4.5%, the Boris bounce is real
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
On the basis of the Brecon & Radnor swing, the Tories would gain 17 seats from Labour whilst losing 14 to the LibDems. There would also be likely losses to the SNP of circa 10 seats. Many of the defending Labour MPs would also enjoy first term incumbency.
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
I don't get why Skipton and Ripon was allowed as a free Green run last time round, council results and previous GE results indicate there is potentially a latent Lib Dem hinterland there. It "feels" like a place the Lib Dems could do well in (Small/Medium touristy town and only slightly leave) with plenty of soft Tory remainers rather than say a Sheffield Central (student filled city centre) which is much more solid Green potential.
Like I said down thread, the Lib Dems didn't stand in Skip & Rip in return for the Greens not standing in next-door Harrogate. Local deal between local parties.
Their are pockets of Green support in Skipton, but for the LibDems getting a free run in their former seat of Harrogate looks like the advantageous end of the deal.
Instead of half-baked pacts between Remainery parties and Brexity parties to fight a Brexit election, why not just have a vote with only two options on the ballot, focussed specifically on the issue of Brexit?
We could call it a referendum.
Because it seems MPs won't honour the result of such a referendum.
So it needs to be binding.
I consider the referendum we have already had to be morally binding.
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
Have you sold this cunning plan to Tory MPs and members in the Home Counties?
Instead of half-baked pacts between Remainery parties and Brexity parties to fight a Brexit election, why not just have a vote with only two options on the ballot, focussed specifically on the issue of Brexit? We could call it a referendum.
Because it seems MPs won't honour the result of such a referendum.
They might, if the terms of the referendum were clearly expressed, and the referendum were run in an honest and transparent manner, without outside interference and devious manipulation.
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
Have you sold this cunning plan to Tory MPs and members in the Home Counties?
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls up to 50 Labour Leave seats go Tory, less than 15 Tory seats go LD
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
On the basis of the Brecon & Radnor swing, the Tories would gain 17 seats from Labour whilst losing 14 to the LibDems. There would also be likely losses to the SNP of circa 10 seats. Many of the defending Labour MPs would also enjoy first term incumbency.
Calculating a Con/Lab swing from the B and R by-election result is just ludicrous.
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
Have you sold this cunning plan to Tory MPs and members in the Home Counties?
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls up to 50 Labour Leave seats go Tory, less than 15 Tory seats go LD
No they would not - both polls imply a 3.75% swing . That would cost Labour 35 seats with the Tories losing 23 to other parties
Instead of half-baked pacts between Remainery parties and Brexity parties to fight a Brexit election, why not just have a vote with only two options on the ballot, focussed specifically on the issue of Brexit?
We could call it a referendum.
Because it seems MPs won't honour the result of such a referendum.
So it needs to be binding.
I consider the referendum we have already had to be morally binding.
How many elected Scottish MPs voted to have a referendum?
The Brecon result was entirely in line with Yougov and Mori giving a Boris majority, Remain Alliance or not
Just like the Copeland result was entirely in line with the polls giving a May landslide...
Labour were not polling as badly as now even at the time of Copeland but the LDs are higher and Boris is a far better campaigner than May and would not do vote losing policies like the dementia tax
He has already been shown to be a loser! A false messiah, just like Jezza! Kinda quaint that you so want to believe though
Far from it, 10% leads with Yougov and Mori last night giving a Boris majority, clear swing from Labour to the Tories too so up to 50 Labour Leave seats could go Tory under Boris even if he loses a few seats to the LDs like Brecon and in Remain areas
On the basis of the Brecon & Radnor swing, the Tories would gain 17 seats from Labour whilst losing 14 to the LibDems. There would also be likely losses to the SNP of circa 10 seats. Many of the defending Labour MPs would also enjoy first term incumbency.
Calculating a Con/Lab swing from the B and R by-election result is just ludicrous.
I don't really disagree - indeed tactical voting almost certainly exaggerates the underlying Labour loss. What is ridiculous is - inaccurately - quoting some pollsters whilst conveniently ignoring those which are less rosy!
one of the norwich seats used to be a top target for greens.
Labour have done quite well to select candidates (and now MPs) in seats like Norwich South, Cambridge, Bristol West, Leeds North-West, etc, who most potential Green/Lib Dem voters would be enthusiastic about voting for as individuals.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
There is no such thing as "The Great British Public". If there were, it would look dimly at the way Johnson was elected PM by a tiny unrepresentative political pressure group. Not very democratic is it?
However- looking at the practicalities of s deal between LibDems and the Greens,- I have used Flavible to reduce the LibDem share and increase the Green share until Green seats come into play. The top seven are:
Brighton Pavillion Isle of Wight Glasgow North (Edinburgh North just misses the cut) Putney Wimbledon Kensington Cities of London and Westminster
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
No, and it tends to leave all those party to it open to attack in the future. For example, if and when the LDs stand down for Plaid, they can be accused of (tepidly) supporting Welsh independence. But smaller parties may consider needs must.
Our archaic electoral system pushes people in that direction. It's fine if you support the old duopoly but if you don't you tend to get fed up of being unrepresented
Also both Brighton's Labour MPs are pretty remainy. Especially in Hove. Any Remain Alliance seeking to oust one of the architect's of the Kyle-Wilson amendment isn't much of a Remain Alliance.
Which begs the question, would a Remain Alliance have greater success if it included Labour candidates who publicly commit to remain in defiance of their leadership?
It wouldn't be in defiance of the leadership.
Should there be a pre-Brexit GE, the Labour manifesto will have a clear and unambiguous offer of Ref2.
That - in practice - means Remain and everybody knows that.
Which begs the question, would a Remain Alliance have greater success if it included Labour candidates who publicly commit to remain in defiance of their leadership?
Welcome. Any remain alliance which stood against Labour MPs risks helping elect a Tory. In most Labour seats, the MP is pro remain and pro second referendum.
ConHome is remarkably silent this morning, but here’s the conclusion on LabourList:
“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”
Also both Brighton's Labour MPs are pretty remainy. Especially in Hove. Any Remain Alliance seeking to oust one of the architect's of the Kyle-Wilson amendment isn't much of a Remain Alliance.
Which begs the question, would a Remain Alliance have greater success if it included Labour candidates who publicly commit to remain in defiance of their leadership?
It wouldn't be in defiance of the leadership. Should there be a pre-Brexit GE, the Labour manifesto will have a clear and unambiguous offer of Ref2. That - in practice - means Remain and everybody knows that.
The problem is that, when the Labour Party says "clear and unambiguous", it means that the Labour Party is trying to con you. If the leaders of the Labour Party had not been so devious and duplicious over the last few years, people might trust them now.
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
This surely boils down to one key question. Will Labour put down a VONC before 31 Oct if they think they have the numbers? All else being noise.
I think the answer to this is YES.
If they don't, even as Johnson appears to be going for the cliff edge, I will at that point give credence to the "Corbyn wants Tory No Deal chaos" sentiment.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
Well, it's rather an artifact of the FPTP system, which punishes wider choice and discourages people from voting for their true preference. Sort of an anti-free-market setup - which is a strong contribution to the love that the current Big Two have for it.
I'd agree that the entire thing is bad; we should move to a system which encourages choice, competition, and for people to vote for who they actually want,
Instead of half-baked pacts between Remainery parties and Brexity parties to fight a Brexit election, why not just have a vote with only two options on the ballot, focussed specifically on the issue of Brexit?
We could call it a referendum.
Because it seems MPs won't honour the result of such a referendum.
So it needs to be binding.
Indeed, it could be done. A referendum that says something like: Do you instruct the government to a) Proceed with the WA, b) Leave without a deal c) Remain. Single transferable vote. No further need for parliamentary input as the government has a direct binding instruction. Problem is the Leave camp are scared that "the people" might have changed their mind, so won't happen
The problem is that, when the Labour Party says "clear and unambiguous", it means that the Labour Party is trying to con you. If the leaders of the Labour Party had not been so devious and duplicious over the last few years, people might trust them now.
I don't think they have been duplicitous. They tried for a compromise - very soft Brexit.
Did not hold, hence the pivot to Ref2/Remain.
If Ref2 is in the manifesto there is no way they would renege on it.
Comments
What could possibly go wrong?
If Green and LibDem members get together locally and jointly choose the best candidate, this example of co-operation could go down very well with the GBP.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157234183506407425
Which begs the question, would a Remain Alliance have greater success if it included Labour candidates who publicly commit to remain in defiance of their leadership?
This frenzy over the "Remain Alliance" reminds me of just before the 2015 election, when various media outlets were certain it was going to be a hung parliament, and the minor parties would be critical in determining the next PM. Forgetting, of course, that the Greens had one MP, even on a fantastic night only stood to gain two more, and could be relied upon to support Labour on most issues even without a formal agreement.
Labour came third in this seat in 1997...
National sigh of relief that Brexit is delivered in non-traumatic fashion.
Remainer tactical voting taken out of the equation.
Johnson gets credit from the apolitical masses and he beats Corbyn in the election which quickly follows.
That's how I see it. Hope I'm wrong, obviously, because I do not wish him well.
We could call it a referendum.
I'm told this is pretty normal. So talking of a Con/BXP or LD/Green pact, one should probably assume that half the voters involved dutifully switch over.
It "feels" like a place the Lib Dems could do well in (Small/Medium touristy town and only slightly leave) with plenty of soft Tory remainers rather than say a Sheffield Central (student filled city centre) which is much more solid Green potential.
The big three (Biden, Sanders, Warren) need to all be on stage together.
You would have a bit more cred if you said it was a disappointing result. Boris lost, pure and simple. The phoney gloss is already wearing thin.
https://www.markpack.org.uk/159332/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-opinion-poll/
Their are pockets of Green support in Skipton, but for the LibDems getting a free run in their former seat of Harrogate looks like the advantageous end of the deal.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19pjmPA5bAYievt7plp9SOKce4EbXBeamLmww2Ba2GCA/edit#gid=0https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19pjmPA5bAYievt7plp9SOKce4EbXBeamLmww2Ba2GCA/edit#gid=0
However- looking at the practicalities of s deal between LibDems and the Greens,- I have used Flavible to reduce the LibDem share and increase the Green share until Green seats come into play. The top seven are:
Brighton Pavillion
Isle of Wight
Glasgow North (Edinburgh North just misses the cut)
Putney
Wimbledon
Kensington
Cities of London and Westminster
Should there be a pre-Brexit GE, the Labour manifesto will have a clear and unambiguous offer of Ref2.
That - in practice - means Remain and everybody knows that.
Any remain alliance which stood against Labour MPs risks helping elect a Tory.
In most Labour seats, the MP is pro remain and pro second referendum.
“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”
I think the answer to this is YES.
If they don't, even as Johnson appears to be going for the cliff edge, I will at that point give credence to the "Corbyn wants Tory No Deal chaos" sentiment.
At present there is no evidence for this.
Sort of an anti-free-market setup - which is a strong contribution to the love that the current Big Two have for it.
I'd agree that the entire thing is bad; we should move to a system which encourages choice, competition, and for people to vote for who they actually want,
Did not hold, hence the pivot to Ref2/Remain.
If Ref2 is in the manifesto there is no way they would renege on it.