Blair won in 2001 after the cow and sheep bonfires!
Actually it was 'during.' They continued until September. This also meant several polling stations had to be closed.
I felt at the time, and still feel, that that was a dreadful decision. The equivalent of Thatcher calling an election in June 1984 and putting all the polling stations in pitheads.
But Labour didn't care about public health emergencies in the countryside. Indeed some pompous fool of a journalist wrote an article called 'There is no crisis, bring on the election.' Fortunately he was such a twit he was never heard from again. Often wondered what happened to him - he was called Sion Simon. Does anyone know what he's doing now?
The anger at no Brexit remains. The remain alliance are setting themselves up to be portrayed as the enemies of democracy, not even looking for a second referendum, just to undo the one we had. That will be a powerful recruiting sergeant at a GE and any amount of glossing over that misses the point entirely. If we assume Lab get 15 to 20% minimum, Unite to remain cannot win a GE, or even stop a majority. The maths supports brexit
Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?
Yup, we did some numbers-out-of-arse on this on the previous thread but if BXP had stood down for Con, their 10.5% would have ended up giving Con maybe net 4% (1.5% don't vote, half the rest to Con, the other half split between, Lab, UKIP and LD) but against that the fact of doing the pact would have lost them say 2% Con->LD and 1% Lab->LD, and hey presto the LD wins with an extra 1% on her majority...
You could do similar exercises in a lot of other seats - I'd guess the net effect would be slightly positive but it might even be negative.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
It doesn't, however there is polling and electoral evidence of over 40% wanting to finish and do Brexit and only two parties offering that if we exclude the 2 remaining kippers. It will win a handsome majority versus labour and the remain alliance split 25/25 or thereabouts. Remain cannot win as its split between too many factions under FPTP
But it can if 'remainers' vote, seat by seat, for whichever of Lab or LD are best placed to win it.
For example, me, I'm a strong Lab supporter - a member even - and yet in Brecon I would have voted LD.
On the 'leave' side, those 3m never-before-voted who turned out for the 2016 Ref, how many of those will vote in a GE?
And 'leavers' generally, the ones who will vote in a GE, will they split as effectively in FPTP calculus for Con/BXP as 'remainers' split for Lab/LD?
I think the answers respectively are 'not that many' and 'no'.
Which spells wafer-thin majority for Johnson, at best, and far more likely a hung parliament, which is no better from him than now, and quite likely worse, with a Lab minority govt not at all out of the question.
Therefore I see him avoiding that election and the impasse rolling into 2020.
'Even in 1997 there was no tactical voting in this seat. None. This is a big and for Labour disturbing change.
As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time.'
There most certainly was tactical voting here in 1997 when Labour's vote share was 3% lower than had been achieved in the Tory landslide year of 1987. Indeed given the national swing, Labour would have been in serious contention to win the seat in 1997 - but tactical voting prevented that as sufficient Labour voters switched to the LibDems to reverse the narrow Tory gain of 1992.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
The anger at no Brexit remains. The remain alliance are setting themselves up to be portrayed as the enemies of democracy, not even looking for a second referendum, just to undo the one we had. That will be a powerful recruiting sergeant at a GE and any amount of glossing over that misses the point entirely. If we assume Lab get 15 to 20% minimum, Unite to remain cannot win a GE, or even stop a majority. The maths supports brexit
Actually, no.
What really gets people's goat is the fossilised harking back to 3 yrs ago when:
1. We were lied to 2. We were never told about No Deal 3. The negotiations have taught us lots of new things 4. No one had an idea then about Brexit and they sure as heck don't now 5. Lots of people have changed their minds and are now remainers
Democracy isn't ossified. It's supposed to be organic and adaptive. Otherwise it suggests you know full well that you'd lose the argument this time if it's voted on again.
Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!
If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
It is a f**king disgrace that this country is going to have endure self-inflicted economic collapse because of around 18-20% of the voting public.
It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.
I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.
and yet you probably didnt think that in 2005 when Blair fked the place up with about 23% of the vote
What ever your views of Blair's governments and policies, nothing he did comes close to the insanity of No Deal Brexit.
so the great financial crisis is just like a small irritant ?
it didnt have any effect on the UK or shape the current political climate ?
The global financial crisis was global, hence the name. It started in America and was neither caused nor exacerbated by Tony Blair, Gordon Brown or, for that matter, Boris Johnson.
Brexit, on the other hand, is a purely Conservative concoction, as is driving over the edge of a cliff. You can't even blame Eton because although it did give us the three main protagonists, Cameron, Boris and JRM, it did also nurture Rory the Europhile Tory.
'Even in 1997 there was no tactical voting in this seat. None. This is a big and for Labour disturbing change.
As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time.'
There most certainly was tactical voting here in 1997 when Labour's vote share was 3% lower than had been achieved in the Tory landslide year of 1987. Indeed given the national swing, Labour would have been in serious contention to win the seat in 1997 - but tactical voting prevented that as sufficient Labour voters switched to the LibDems to reverse the narrow Tory gain of 1992.
So how do you account for a Labour vote effectively holding steady (up in relative, down in absolute) terms? This in a seat with a popular local(ish) Tory MP who as late as April was thought to be the only one in Wales with a chance of holding his seat, and an undoubtedly popular and successful local Liberal Democrat 130 votes behind him?
If ever there was a seat where there should have been huge tactical voting in 1997 this was it. But it didn't happen.
The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
If Labour ditched Jezza and backed Remain, they would eliminate the LibDems and trounce the Tories.
They will do neither of those things, so the Lib Dems will clean up instead.
It's a bit late for Jezza, Scott, and probably for the LAbour Party too. Six months ago it might still have worked, but it would lack credibility now.
LDs will certainly clean up, but to what extent? Brecon was a good result but hardly a whitewash.
I am not sure. My sense is that while a substantial minority love the idea of No Deal in the abstract, a larger number of voters feel the opposite. The closer we get to deadline day, the more that antipathy will come to the fore. And with a Corbyn government now about as likely as it was in the run-up to the last GE, the potential will grow for the party to get Stop Tory votes just as it did in 2017.
Labour will lose at least six of its seven seats in Scotland and look nailed on to lose a few in England and Wales, but for me there is still a chance that the party could stay above 200 MPs, with the LDs and SNP also picking up a decent number where they are challenging the Tories. It does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that Labour+SNP+LD = 300+. And if that happens we are basically where we are now.
I do hope that is what happens if he does No Deal. The Tories must be punished for this madness by a couple of generations out in the electoral wilderness.
Perhaps with time they will rediscover what conservatism means.
Black swans possible of course. The Epstein case has the potential to cause ripples and even waves around the world. He had a lot of interesting friends in many countries who I'm sure knew nothing of his proclivities! Of course even if it merely leads to more attention being paid to the sexual habits of the establishment and how those are serviced..........
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
The Greens got two free runs last time so I am sure are expecting more. See for example the Twitter feed of the IOW greens today
Well done Vaughan with the 'so far, so good' comment.
Roy gone.
This is going to be a disaster.
Mr 'Get to Pretty Fifty and Then Throw Away Wicket In Inventive Fashion' marches out to join the walking wicketRory Burns.
This doesn't look good, particularly given yesterday was probably the best day for batting.
Edit - why didn't we just make Leach our permanent opener? He couldn't have done worse than any of the others we've tried since Compton and at least he offers an attacking bowling option.
We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.
If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?
There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.
This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.
The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.
Titter.
All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
Doubt it. It is far better to have an election (provided it is not an extinction event).
If it leads to a minority Labour Government (with LibDems + Others), then it will be interesting to see what they actually do.
Remember Pierre Trudeau's government fell in 1979, as he lost the election and there was a minority Conservative + Allies Government. It lasted a year, and Trudeau was back in power for another lengthy term in 1980.
Boris does not have to "win" an election. He merely has to make sure that whoever "wins" is hamstrung.
That's an interesting take.
But my sense of 'Boris' is that having made it to PM, he will be 100% focused on staying right where he is.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
The anger at no Brexit remains. The remain alliance are setting themselves up to be portrayed as the enemies of democracy, not even looking for a second referendum, just to undo the one we had. That will be a powerful recruiting sergeant at a GE and any amount of glossing over that misses the point entirely. If we assume Lab get 15 to 20% minimum, Unite to remain cannot win a GE, or even stop a majority. The maths supports brexit
Actually, no.
What really gets people's goat is the fossilised harking back to 3 yrs ago when:
1. We were lied to 2. We were never told about No Deal 3. The negotiations have taught us lots of new things 4. No one had an idea then about Brexit and they sure as heck don't now 5. Lots of people have changed their minds and are now remainers
Also we weren't told about the practically insoluble difficulty over Ireland, and the potentially disastrous effects of that alone.
Do not draw national lessons from this seat! It is an eccentric one. The likelihood of this having been about Brexit is low.
The key lesson, as I have said, is that Labour is haemorrhaging voters who would 15 years ago not even have considered voting for anyone else. That could be a serious matter for them. The last thing Corbyn needs is for Wales to go the way of Scotland, but helped enormously by the uselessness of Drakeford that is where matters seem to be headed.
The bright spot is that there is no one Party placed to exploit that, but if Plaid and the Liberal Democrats carve up the Valleys and the Tories the English speaking areas of Clwyd, Powys, Pembroke and Gower, that will be the coldest of cold comfort.
But you are drawing a conclusion yourself - that Labour are hemorrhaging support mainly because of Corbyn.
Whereas as I am postulating that the main reason for the drop is that Labour supporters will go Lib Dem as an anti-Johnson, anti No Deal Brexit vote where the LDs can win a seat but Labour cannot.
That is certainly how I would behave. And I am 'diehard' Labour.
Wonder how many of these seats the Tories would still win in a GE now? Will obviously need to be compensated elsewhere (and then some) to get a meaningful majority.
Plus, on top of this, you have seats like Guildford and others around London, not on the list, which have v strong remain votes and have also flirted with the LDs in the past so, in a Cons supporting "no deal" scenario, are clearly also potentially in play.
Sounds therefore instinctively very hard for Boris to win a majority and change the game here - the only thing that makes it possible is the uselessness of Corbyn, which is clearly not an insignificant factor....case of who is least bad, rather than who is best?!
I feel St A is gonna go LD from being on the ground.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales.
Fourth, according to the latest survey, ahead of Plaid.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
You are forgetting in their eyes UK = England, it is always the case and always will be , except when they need your vote.
Do not draw national lessons from this seat! It is an eccentric one. The likelihood of this having been about Brexit is low.
The key lesson, as I have said, is that Labour is haemorrhaging voters who would 15 years ago not even have considered voting for anyone else. That could be a serious matter for them. The last thing Corbyn needs is for Wales to go the way of Scotland, but helped enormously by the uselessness of Drakeford that is where matters seem to be headed.
The bright spot is that there is no one Party placed to exploit that, but if Plaid and the Liberal Democrats carve up the Valleys and the Tories the English speaking areas of Clwyd, Powys, Pembroke and Gower, that will be the coldest of cold comfort.
But you are drawing a conclusion yourself - that Labour are hemorrhaging support mainly because of Corbyn.
Whereas as I am postulating that the main reason for the drop is that Labour supporters will go Lib Dem as an anti-Johnson, anti No Deal Brexit vote where the LDs can win a seat but Labour cannot.
That is certainly how I would behave. And I am 'diehard' Labour.
True, because I think the one conclusion we can draw safely is that Labour have lost the tribal loyalty that has sustained them in South Wales since 1906. And that confirms all the other evidence we have.
And you are assuming - wrongly, I would suggest - that the majority of Labour voters in this seat are Remainers. You are comparing yourself to these Labour voters. They're not Remainers, and they are not like you. If they were, it would be much less alarming for Labour. But if they are voting Liberal Democrats for reasons other than Remain, that is a potential crisis.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
6% of the UK's Parliamentary constituencies are in Wales and 9% are in Scotland. 3% are in Northern Ireland. Rather crucially, 82% are in England.
The Remain Alliance should work together in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
It is a period of civil war. Remainer spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Tory Empire.
During the battle, Remainer spies managed to steal secret plans to the Empire's ultimate weapon, the BORIS BOUNCER, an armored space station with enough power to knock up an entire parliamentary constituency.
Pursued by the Empire's sinister agents, Princess Jo races home aboard her battle bus, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her people and restore freedom to the Continent....
Normally I'm not too fond of these, but for some reason, this one tickled me. I think it was the final paragraph - I just got an image of Swinson on board the battle bus, hurtling down the M4, being closely pursued by an articulated lorry driven by Dominic Cummings, firing pellets from a catapult at her in a sort of Beano-esque vision.
"situations where the Lib Dems step aside in seats where the Greens look as though they have the best chance of winning" For example?
If you look you'll see there are very few of these. It actually requires the LDs to stand down in several seats where they've traditionally received more votes than the Greens have. And of course the LDs should do this, even though the local party members might not be too happy about it.
Of course that's true - even if he is the offspring of Thatcher and Churchill as he clearly wishes to be, he has a lot less time to play with and fewer options as many have already been tried or closed off.
For me, the most stunning information is IanB2's report that the Liberal Democrats did well in Ystradgynlais. I've known that town for 35 years. It is the last place on Earth (well, OK, in Wales) I would expect the Liberal Democrats to do well. The whole thing - demography, economy, language, parochialism - was fiercely geared against them. Yet somehow if Ian is correct - and he's well-informed and honest - they cut through all that. And that would almost certainly have been at Labour's expense, although a few Plaid voters may have followed their party's lead. Moreover, Ystradgynlais almost certainly was the town that tipped the constituency to Leave.
If the Liberal Democrats can prosper there, there is nowhere in Wales that can be considered truly safe for Labour right now. For example, I would have said Llantrisant was far more fertile territory for the Liberal Democrats than Ystradgynlais.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
You are forgetting in their eyes UK = England, it is always the case and always will be , except when they need your vote.
Swinson's quote was, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain".
That is demonstrably true of the United Kingdom.
It isn't in Scotland (where the SNP are very strong), in parts of Wales (where Plaid are strong) and obviously in Northern Ireland (although the Alliance is the Lib Dems' sister party and is, in many areas, the strongest remain party which might actually take its seats).
The fact that 82% of all constituencies are in England is plainly relevant to that fact. It isn't being dismissive of Scotland at all to point out that they account for 9% of UK Parliamentary seats (and indeed it isn't dismissive of the capital, but puts things into context, to note that London accounts for only 11% of the same).
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
6% of the UK's Parliamentary constituencies are in Wales and 9% are in Scotland. 3% are in Northern Ireland. Rather crucially, 82% are in England.
So, the Libdems will be standing done in Wales & Scotland, right?
As PC and the SNP are the strongest Remain parties in those countries, right?
You need a very long spoon to sup lentils with the LibDems.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
Certainly there will be no unite to remain in Scotland, the SNP will field 57 candidates In England the LDs only benefit where greens are strong and where greens are strong they'd expect LD to stand aside. For example, Norwich South, held by the LDs in 2010 but Greens won the locals here, no chance either step aside
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
ou are forgetting in their eyes UK = England, it is always the case and always will be , except when they need your vote.
Swinson's quote was, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain".
That is demonstrably true of the United Kingdom.
It isn't in Scotland (where the SNP are very strong), in parts of Wales (where Plaid are strong) and obviously in Northern Ireland (although the Alliance is the Lib Dems' sister party and is, in many areas, the strongest remain party which might actually take its seats).
The fact that 82% of all constituencies are in England is plainly relevant to that fact. It isn't being dismissive of Scotland at all to point out that they account for 9% of UK Parliamentary seats (and indeed it isn't dismissive of the capital, but puts things into context, to note that London accounts for only 11% of the same).
The difficulty of the Indyref makes a deal in Scotland impossible, sadly. The best we can hope for is some understanding as to who tries where.
For E&W there is a tactical choice between a target seat deal, giving a free run in an agreed list of targets but normal business everywhere else, or a nationwide arrangement. I would push for the latter but it is clearly more challenging. I would think it reasonable for the LDs to give PC a free run in much of North and South Wales in return for mid Wales and some of the urban seats. In Ceredigion they will probably have to go head to head
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
You are forgetting in their eyes UK = England, it is always the case and always will be , except when they need your vote.
Swinson's quote was, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain".
That is demonstrably true of the United Kingdom.
It isn't in Scotland (where the SNP are very strong), in parts of Wales (where Plaid are strong) and obviously in Northern Ireland (although the Alliance is the Lib Dems' sister party and is, in many areas, the strongest remain party which might actually take its seats).
The fact that 82% of all constituencies are in England is plainly relevant to that fact. It isn't being dismissive of Scotland at all to point out that they account for 9% of UK Parliamentary seats (and indeed it isn't dismissive of the capital, but puts things into context, to note that London accounts for only 11% of the same).
If we no deal please can London have its own independence referendum?
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
6% of the UK's Parliamentary constituencies are in Wales and 9% are in Scotland. 3% are in Northern Ireland. Rather crucially, 82% are in England.
So, the Libdems will be standing done in Wales & Scotland, right?
As PC and the SNP are the strongest Remain parties in those countries, right?
You never a very long spoon to sup lentils with the LibDems.
I think there will be seats where a deal could be done with Plaid and the SNP.
Swinson's point was simply that, if there's to be a deal between remain parties at the next election, the Lib Dems as the party polling 20% are likely to be the standard bearer in a lot, but by no means all, of those. Which is (a) reasonable as a statement of fact; and (b) a rationale point to make early in the negotiation.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
6% of the UK's Parliamentary constituencies are in Wales and 9% are in Scotland. 3% are in Northern Ireland. Rather crucially, 82% are in England.
So, the Libdems will be standing done in Wales & Scotland, right?
As PC and the SNP are the strongest Remain parties in those countries, right?
You never a very long spoon to sup lentils with the LibDems.
I think there will be seats where a deal could be done with Plaid and the SNP.
Swinson's point was simply that, if there's to be a deal between remain parties at the next election, the Lib Dems as the party polling 20% are likely to be the standard bearer in a lot, but by no means all, of those. Which is (a) reasonable as a statement of fact; and (b) a rationale point to make early in the negotiation.
Snp will not stand aside anywhere as they will not allow no choice for independence, Scotland is no go for remain alliance
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
A starting point. A written commitment is worth a hundred vague & wordy good intentions.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
6% of the UK's Parliamentary constituencies are in Wales and 9% are in Scotland. 3% are in Northern Ireland. Rather crucially, 82% are in England.
So, the Libdems will be standing done in Wales & Scotland, right?
As PC and the SNP are the strongest Remain parties in those countries, right?
You never a very long spoon to sup lentils with the LibDems.
I think there will be seats where a deal could be done with Plaid and the SNP.
Swinson's point was simply that, if there's to be a deal between remain parties at the next election, the Lib Dems as the party polling 20% are likely to be the standard bearer in a lot, but by no means all, of those. Which is (a) reasonable as a statement of fact; and (b) a rationale point to make early in the negotiation.
Snp will not stand aside anywhere as they will not allow no choice for independence, Scotland is no go for remain alliance
I think that's probably right. Although there is little to be gained for a Remain alliance there anyway, as the vast majority of seats don't need a Remain alliance to get a Remain MP, and even the Tories tend to be Davidson-ite rather than Johnson-ite.
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
The only seat I can think of where that might help is Ynys Môn. But if Labour are imploding they might struggle there anyway.
(It is also worh pointing out that Ynys Môn is another highly unusual seat. The last time an incumbent MP who stood again was defeated was in 1951.)
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
ou are forgetting in their eyes UK = England, it is always the case and always will be , except when they need your vote.
Swinson's quote was, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain".
That is demonstrably true of the United Kingdom.
It isn't in Scotland (where the SNP are very strong), in parts of Wales (where Plaid are strong) and obviously in Northern Ireland (although the Alliance is the Lib Dems' sister party and is, in many areas, the strongest remain party which might actually take its seats).
The fact that 82% of all constituencies are in England is plainly relevant to that fact. It isn't being dismissive of Scotland at all to point out that they account for 9% of UK Parliamentary seats (and indeed it isn't dismissive of the capital, but puts things into context, to note that London accounts for only 11% of the same).
The difficulty of the Indyref makes a deal in Scotland impossible, sadly. The best we can hope for is some understanding as to who tries where.
For E&W there is a tactical choice between a target seat deal, giving a free run in an agreed list of targets but normal business everywhere else, or a nationwide arrangement. I would push for the latter but it is clearly more challenging. I would think it reasonable for the LDs to give PC a free run in much of North and South Wales in return for mid Wales and some of the urban seats. In Ceredigion they will probably have to go head to head
Now PC have become very clear they seek independence for Wales, would PC demanding a WIndyref (which they might well be their position post-Brexit, doubt they'd just be pushing for UK Rejoin when Windy would be their preferred route to Welsh rejoin) rule out cooperation with them too?
Does he have a chance? Looks like they have only had 3 different MPs since 1950 which should be in his favour. Are there any seats with only 2 MPs since then?
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
You are forgetting in their eyes UK = England, it is always the case and always will be , except when they need your vote.
Swinson's quote was, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain".
That is demonstrably true of the United Kingdom.
It isn't in Scotland (where the SNP are very strong), in parts of Wales (where Plaid are strong) and obviously in Northern Ireland (although the Alliance is the Lib Dems' sister party and is, in many areas, the strongest remain party which might actually take its seats).
The fact that 82% of all constituencies are in England is plainly relevant to that fact. It isn't being dismissive of Scotland at all to point out that they account for 9% of UK Parliamentary seats (and indeed it isn't dismissive of the capital, but puts things into context, to note that London accounts for only 11% of the same).
I do agree but people like Swinson are London centric, when she said the country for sure she meant England , she is like your usual rabid unionist, UK = England. Whilst it is obvious that it is the majority of the vote , they could pretend now and again that they give a hoot about Scotland or Wales and do not see them as colonies.
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
What he can do consistent with what he's said? Nothing. Even if he and the EU somehow agreed on what to do, he's ruled out the timetable extension that would be needed to do it.
What a theoretical different PM could do? Lots, most obviously Norway, with a special status for NI. But you'd have to start by saying you were no longer bound by TMay's red lines.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
A starting point. A written commitment is worth a hundred vague & wordy good intentions.
Before we get too far down this road, iirc that the Green membership are against such an alliance. Unfortunately.
Much though I admire Frank Field in certain respects, there is a huge dollop of absurdity in forming a party that can, by definition, only ever have one MP and therefore cannot constitute a Parliamentary "group" under any circumstances.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
The anger at no Brexit remains. The remain alliance are setting themselves up to be portrayed as the enemies of democracy, not even looking for a second referendum, just to undo the one we had. That will be a powerful recruiting sergeant at a GE and any amount of glossing over that misses the point entirely. If we assume Lab get 15 to 20% minimum, Unite to remain cannot win a GE, or even stop a majority. The maths supports brexit
Actually, no.
What really gets people's goat is the fossilised harking back to 3 yrs ago when:
1. We were lied to 2. We were never told about No Deal 3. The negotiations have taught us lots of new things 4. No one had an idea then about Brexit and they sure as heck don't now 5. Lots of people have changed their minds and are now remainers
Democracy isn't ossified. It's supposed to be organic and adaptive. Otherwise it suggests you know full well that you'd lose the argument this time if it's voted on again.
Whilst all those points are valid, the same is true of General Election campaigns. Parties lie all the time, and win on the back of those lies. They get punished next time, but in the meantime its five years of troughing.
We don't usually do referenda (?) in this country, and UK wide polls there have been only three in the entire existance of voting. But in the other two, they were both enacted first before we considered having another vote again (and the gap was 41 years, not 3 as some suggest).
In terms of referenda on a more selected basis (Scottish devolution and the like) then all THOSE where also enacted as passed, no matter the margin of win. The only slight exception was the 1979 Scottish one, but it was made clear that there was a minimum turnout requirement BEFORE the vote took place.
Remainers, hard core remainers, should think long and hard about this. If we end up revoking and remaining (however that may be) you may feel better about yourselves and have a good chuckle at those thick idiots who voted leave, but it will be a poor day for democracy.
One day, people like that might find themselves on the 'right' side of a win, that is then overturned because it wasn't the 'right' result.
If the next GE were post-Brexit, would the Lib Dems be so keen to form a "Rejoin Alliance"?
I think so. Once you crash out with No Deal, Brejoin is the quickest way to unfuck things.
Liberals need to start thinking about the terms though. No way to membership of the Euro.
What's actually wrong with euro membership ? A stable currency forces sensible budgets on our exchequers - with Corbyn's 2017 result fresh in the memory surely that's a good thing ? Also speculators can't push the Euro around as they might be able to the pound - it's simply too big.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
The Lib Dems are polling around 20% nationally, Greens around 5%, nationalists stand in only a small minority of seats, and current/former Change UK are in a tiny handful of seats.
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
Err, in Wales that is clearly not correct. The LibDems are the fifth party.
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
6% of the UK's Parliamentary constituencies are in Wales and 9% are in Scotland. 3% are in Northern Ireland. Rather crucially, 82% are in England.
So, the Libdems will be standing done in Wales & Scotland, right?
As PC and the SNP are the strongest Remain parties in those countries, right?
You never a very long spoon to sup lentils with the LibDems.
I think there will be seats where a deal could be done with Plaid and the SNP.
Swinson's point was simply that, if there's to be a deal between remain parties at the next election, the Lib Dems as the party polling 20% are likely to be the standard bearer in a lot, but by no means all, of those. Which is (a) reasonable as a statement of fact; and (b) a rationale point to make early in the negotiation.
Snp will not stand aside anywhere as they will not allow no choice for independence, Scotland is no go for remain alliance
Exactly , she will need to change her "I will never allow a second referendum on independence" stance pretty damn quick. They will will go nowhere in the end, may get some protest votes but not enough idiots to put those lying toerags in power.
Much though I admire Frank Field in certain respects, there is a huge dollop of absurdity in forming a party that can, by definition, only ever have one MP and therefore cannot constitute a Parliamentary "group" under any circumstances.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
Hes trying to get elected in Birkenhead, not Runcorn, and he isn't looking to form a government. Kidderminster health concern.........
Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!
If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
It is a f**king disgrace that this country is going to have endure self-inflicted economic collapse because of around 18-20% of the voting public.
It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.
I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.
and yet you probably didnt think that in 2005 when Blair fked the place up with about 23% of the vote
What ever your views of Blair's governments and policies, nothing he did comes close to the insanity of No Deal Brexit.
so the great financial crisis is just like a small irritant ?
it didnt have any effect on the UK or shape the current political climate ?
The global financial crisis was global, hence the name. It started in America and was neither caused nor exacerbated by Tony Blair, Gordon Brown or, for that matter, Boris Johnson.
Brexit, on the other hand, is a purely Conservative concoction, as is driving over the edge of a cliff. You can't even blame Eton because although it did give us the three main protagonists, Cameron, Boris and JRM, it did also nurture Rory the Europhile Tory.
yeah youve been pumping that GFC bollocks for years, keep believing, no one else does
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Does he have a chance? Looks like they have only had 3 different MPs since 1950 which should be in his favour. Are there any seats with only 2 MPs since then?
Bolsover was formed in 1950 and has had only Dennis Skinner and Harold Neal (who indeed represented the predecessor seat of Clay Cross from 1944).
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
Forget the WA and backstop, those are dead ends for now.
A standstill transition where we formally leave the EU, stop having MEPs etc, but everything else stays the same. The EU lose a bit of their sequencing advantage but avoid no deal. Boris gets to claim success against the odds and look statesman like. The ERG wont like it but just perhaps being in cabinet positions to negotiate a long term free trade agreement to their liking makes it acceptable to them. Tory remainers and DUP would be quite happy to vote for it.
With hindsight it would have been a lot easier for May to get to that transition than the far more complicated WA (which ironically would be better for the UK and especially NI).
Comments
I felt at the time, and still feel, that that was a dreadful decision. The equivalent of Thatcher calling an election in June 1984 and putting all the polling stations in pitheads.
But Labour didn't care about public health emergencies in the countryside. Indeed some pompous fool of a journalist wrote an article called 'There is no crisis, bring on the election.' Fortunately he was such a twit he was never heard from again. Often wondered what happened to him - he was called Sion Simon. Does anyone know what he's doing now?
You could do similar exercises in a lot of other seats - I'd guess the net effect would be slightly positive but it might even be negative.
"To save his party, he destroyed his country."
it didnt have any effect on the UK or shape the current political climate ?
He won't save his party.
That will be Rory Stewart's job.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1157183077229178880
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1157183409342603265
It seems to me a statement of the bleedin' obvious that, "In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain" and it'd be absurd to go into a negotiation as Lib Dem leader without stating that up front.
For example, me, I'm a strong Lab supporter - a member even - and yet in Brecon I would have voted LD.
On the 'leave' side, those 3m never-before-voted who turned out for the 2016 Ref, how many of those will vote in a GE?
And 'leavers' generally, the ones who will vote in a GE, will they split as effectively in FPTP calculus for Con/BXP as 'remainers' split for Lab/LD?
I think the answers respectively are 'not that many' and 'no'.
Which spells wafer-thin majority for Johnson, at best, and far more likely a hung parliament, which is no better from him than now, and quite likely worse, with a Lab minority govt not at all out of the question.
Therefore I see him avoiding that election and the impasse rolling into 2020.
Ydoethur said:
'Even in 1997 there was no tactical voting in this seat. None. This is a big and for Labour disturbing change.
As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time.'
There most certainly was tactical voting here in 1997 when Labour's vote share was 3% lower than had been achieved in the Tory landslide year of 1987. Indeed given the national swing, Labour would have been in serious contention to win the seat in 1997 - but tactical voting prevented that as sufficient Labour voters switched to the LibDems to reverse the narrow Tory gain of 1992.
What really gets people's goat is the fossilised harking back to 3 yrs ago when:
1. We were lied to
2. We were never told about No Deal
3. The negotiations have taught us lots of new things
4. No one had an idea then about Brexit and they sure as heck don't now
5. Lots of people have changed their minds and are now remainers
Democracy isn't ossified. It's supposed to be organic and adaptive. Otherwise it suggests you know full well that you'd lose the argument this time if it's voted on again.
Destroyed is a bit too final.
Brexit, on the other hand, is a purely Conservative concoction, as is driving over the edge of a cliff. You can't even blame Eton because although it did give us the three main protagonists, Cameron, Boris and JRM, it did also nurture Rory the Europhile Tory.
If ever there was a seat where there should have been huge tactical voting in 1997 this was it. But it didn't happen.
Labour will lose at least six of its seven seats in Scotland and look nailed on to lose a few in England and Wales, but for me there is still a chance that the party could stay above 200 MPs, with the LDs and SNP also picking up a decent number where they are challenging the Tories. It does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that Labour+SNP+LD = 300+. And if that happens we are basically where we are now.
Perhaps with time they will rediscover what conservatism means.
'cos it certainly doesn't mean this.
Roy gone.
This is going to be a disaster.
walking wicketRory Burns.This doesn't look good, particularly given yesterday was probably the best day for batting.
Edit - why didn't we just make Leach our permanent opener? He couldn't have done worse than any of the others we've tried since Compton and at least he offers an attacking bowling option.
But my sense of 'Boris' is that having made it to PM, he will be 100% focused on staying right where he is.
Oh, sorry, do you mean Frank Field?
In Scotland, that is not correct.
Plaid Cymru is the strongest party of Remain in Wales. SNP is the strongest in Scotland.
Whereas as I am postulating that the main reason for the drop is that Labour supporters will go Lib Dem as an anti-Johnson, anti No Deal Brexit vote where the LDs can win a seat but Labour cannot.
That is certainly how I would behave. And I am 'diehard' Labour.
We are all going to die in a nuclear fireball anyway...
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1157238599487823872
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/07/29/the-july-welsh-political-barometer-poll/
Labour would be the strongest Party of Remain if they were Remainers.
(My autocorrect disturbingly insisted that I meant 'Party of racists' instead of 'Party of Remain.' I blame the Illuminati.)
And you are assuming - wrongly, I would suggest - that the majority of Labour voters in this seat are Remainers. You are comparing yourself to these Labour voters. They're not Remainers, and they are not like you. If they were, it would be much less alarming for Labour. But if they are voting Liberal Democrats for reasons other than Remain, that is a potential crisis.
If you look you'll see there are very few of these. It actually requires the LDs to stand down in several seats where they've traditionally received more votes than the Greens have. And of course the LDs should do this, even though the local party members might not be too happy about it.
If the Liberal Democrats can prosper there, there is nowhere in Wales that can be considered truly safe for Labour right now. For example, I would have said Llantrisant was far more fertile territory for the Liberal Democrats than Ystradgynlais.
That is demonstrably true of the United Kingdom.
It isn't in Scotland (where the SNP are very strong), in parts of Wales (where Plaid are strong) and obviously in Northern Ireland (although the Alliance is the Lib Dems' sister party and is, in many areas, the strongest remain party which might actually take its seats).
The fact that 82% of all constituencies are in England is plainly relevant to that fact. It isn't being dismissive of Scotland at all to point out that they account for 9% of UK Parliamentary seats (and indeed it isn't dismissive of the capital, but puts things into context, to note that London accounts for only 11% of the same).
As PC and the SNP are the strongest Remain parties in those countries, right?
You need a very long spoon to sup lentils with the LibDems.
In England the LDs only benefit where greens are strong and where greens are strong they'd expect LD to stand aside. For example, Norwich South, held by the LDs in 2010 but Greens won the locals here, no chance either step aside
The Poundland @bunnco speaks ....
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1157185492112293888?s=20
For E&W there is a tactical choice between a target seat deal, giving a free run in an agreed list of targets but normal business everywhere else, or a nationwide arrangement. I would push for the latter but it is clearly more challenging. I would think it reasonable for the LDs to give PC a free run in much of North and South Wales in return for mid Wales and some of the urban seats. In Ceredigion they will probably have to go head to head
Swinson's point was simply that, if there's to be a deal between remain parties at the next election, the Lib Dems as the party polling 20% are likely to be the standard bearer in a lot, but by no means all, of those. Which is (a) reasonable as a statement of fact; and (b) a rationale point to make early in the negotiation.
A written commitment is worth a hundred vague & wordy good intentions.
He is bigging it up to preempt damage from supping with La Farage
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
(It is also worh pointing out that Ynys Môn is another highly unusual seat. The last time an incumbent MP who stood again was defeated was in 1951.)
He's over there.
What a theoretical different PM could do? Lots, most obviously Norway, with a special status for NI. But you'd have to start by saying you were no longer bound by TMay's red lines.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
We don't usually do referenda (?) in this country, and UK wide polls there have been only three in the entire existance of voting. But in the other two, they were both enacted first before we considered having another vote again (and the gap was 41 years, not 3 as some suggest).
In terms of referenda on a more selected basis (Scottish devolution and the like) then all THOSE where also enacted as passed, no matter the margin of win. The only slight exception was the 1979 Scottish one, but it was made clear that there was a minimum turnout requirement BEFORE the vote took place.
Remainers, hard core remainers, should think long and hard about this. If we end up revoking and remaining (however that may be) you may feel better about yourselves and have a good chuckle at those thick idiots who voted leave, but it will be a poor day for democracy.
One day, people like that might find themselves on the 'right' side of a win, that is then overturned because it wasn't the 'right' result.
Also speculators can't push the Euro around as they might be able to the pound - it's simply too big.
...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
The fact no one on PB seems to have mentioned it, presumes it means its just a 'Stand down at the next election' announcement lark.
Edit - oh, found it. Oh well, nice knowing you Frank......
A standstill transition where we formally leave the EU, stop having MEPs etc, but everything else stays the same. The EU lose a bit of their sequencing advantage but avoid no deal. Boris gets to claim success against the odds and look statesman like. The ERG wont like it but just perhaps being in cabinet positions to negotiate a long term free trade agreement to their liking makes it acceptable to them. Tory remainers and DUP would be quite happy to vote for it.
With hindsight it would have been a lot easier for May to get to that transition than the far more complicated WA (which ironically would be better for the UK and especially NI).