Labour would be the strongest Party of Remain if they were Remainers.
And if my auntie had nuts she'd be my uncle.
There's no need to bring @Peter_the_Punter into the discussion. Peter's already had a fit of the vapours overnight at the sight of the B&R OMRLP candidate, Lily the Pink, flitting around the count in one of his old outfits.
The memory of those days with the "Tiller Girls" at the London Palladium are still quite raw .... and raw being the word as the outfit fell apart at the 1962 Royal Variety Performance and "Peter" was seen in the raw by HRH Duke of Edinburgh and had to seek refuge backstage from the old sea dog.
Is the Plaid membership (And I'll admit I don't know any) happy about them becoming a seemingly junior partner to the Lib Dems rather than a forthright independence for Wales party ?
If the next GE were post-Brexit, would the Lib Dems be so keen to form a "Rejoin Alliance"?
I think so. Once you crash out with No Deal, Brejoin is the quickest way to unfuck things.
Liberals need to start thinking about the terms though. No way to membership of the Euro.
No Deal chaos screws everyone, if you did it quick I think you could get back in on basically the same terms, with the possible exception of the rebate. The Eurozone's got enough problems without dragging in a reluctant member with a number of unresolved internal issues.
If the next GE were post-Brexit, would the Lib Dems be so keen to form a "Rejoin Alliance"?
I think so. Once you crash out with No Deal, Brejoin is the quickest way to unfuck things.
Liberals need to start thinking about the terms though. No way to membership of the Euro.
What's actually wrong with euro membership ? A stable currency forces sensible budgets on our exchequers - with Corbyn's 2017 result fresh in the memory surely that's a good thing ? Also speculators can't push the Euro around as they might be able to the pound - it's simply too big.
You're working on the assumption that discussions of the £ v € are ever rational. They aren't (and I include those in my part of the awesome foursome).
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
What he can do consistent with what he's said? Nothing. Even if he and the EU somehow agreed on what to do, he's ruled out the timetable extension that would be needed to do it.
What a theoretical different PM could do? Lots, most obviously Norway, with a special status for NI. But you'd have to start by saying you were no longer bound by TMay's red lines.
Go for Norway, and he'll be booted out by the ERG immediately.
Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.” Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”
The Lib's never change do they?
Another snide comment from GIN. What Jo was referring to was the whole country, not just Scotland/Wales/NI and England. Last time I was at school most meant more than 50%, and the non-England seats altogether make only about 20%
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
Forget the WA and backstop, those are dead ends for now.
A standstill transition where we formally leave the EU, stop having MEPs etc, but everything else stays the same. The EU lose a bit of their sequencing advantage but avoid no deal. Boris gets to claim success against the odds and look statesman like. The ERG wont like it but just perhaps being in cabinet positions to negotiate a long term free trade agreement to their liking makes it acceptable to them. Tory remainers would be quite happy to vote for it.
I'm not sure that Mike is right in his interpretation of this result. Yes, the 'Remain coalition' might have helped the LibDems to an extent, but it's not obvious that it was very important, especially since they didn't campaign on Brexit particularly. In addition, the circumstances of the by-election were extremely unusual, and national politics is in turmoil, and this is a very atypical constituency.
All in all, it probably doesn't tell us very much at all.
On this whole thing, what happened to Canada +, Canada ++ or whatever it was as an option. I seem to remember that that was what Boris Et al were mulling over as a new basis for a plan.
Edit: Maybe its due to both 'endgames' requiring the WA, and therefore the backstop.
I think the idea that our EU friends would want the UK to join the Eurozone anytime soon is for the birds. They see us, not unreasonably, as unstable and unreliable wreckers, and they certainly don't want the Euro wrecked.
If the next GE were post-Brexit, would the Lib Dems be so keen to form a "Rejoin Alliance"?
I think so. Once you crash out with No Deal, Brejoin is the quickest way to unfuck things.
Liberals need to start thinking about the terms though. No way to membership of the Euro.
What's actually wrong with euro membership ? A stable currency forces sensible budgets on our exchequers - with Corbyn's 2017 result fresh in the memory surely that's a good thing ? Also speculators can't push the Euro around as they might be able to the pound - it's simply too big.
You're working on the assumption that discussions of the £ v € are ever rational. They aren't (and I include those in my part of the awesome foursome).
I can understand the objections from the right, and once you get as far left as Corbyn. But what issue do those in the centre/centre-left have with it ?
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
If you want to put a bet on with me, I'm offering £50 at evens to say the Lib Dems will stand down in seats for Plaid and the Greens at the GE.
Labour would be the strongest Party of Remain if they were Remainers.
And if my auntie had nuts she'd be my uncle.
Raises an interesting question about the euro-purity vs hypocrisy of the Lib Dems though. In the hypothetical event that Labour became the "strongest Party of Remain", would the Lib Dems decide to largely leave the field to them, rather than gamble on the Brexit crisis as their best opportunity to supplant Labour?
What are the chances of a successful Labour coup before the next election? With the largely pro-Remain membership, Corbyn would surely find it hard to work his magic third time around.
If the next GE were post-Brexit, would the Lib Dems be so keen to form a "Rejoin Alliance"?
I think so. Once you crash out with No Deal, Brejoin is the quickest way to unfuck things.
Liberals need to start thinking about the terms though. No way to membership of the Euro.
What's actually wrong with euro membership ? A stable currency forces sensible budgets on our exchequers - with Corbyn's 2017 result fresh in the memory surely that's a good thing ? Also speculators can't push the Euro around as they might be able to the pound - it's simply too big.
You're working on the assumption that discussions of the £ v € are ever rational. They aren't (and I include those in my part of the awesome foursome).
I can understand the objections from the right, and once you get as far left as Corbyn. But what issue do those in the centre/centre-left have with it ?
That you're effectively giving up national control over interest rates, and ultimately spending levels.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
If you want to put a bet on with me, I'm offering £50 at evens to say the Lib Dems will stand down in seats for Plaid and the Greens at the GE.
I know nothing of Plaid and Greens down south so will pass on your kind offer
Plaid Cymru did stand down; the LibDems did win. How closely those two things were connected is less clear. You can slice and dice close results to reach many different conclusions. The Boris bounce is over; Jo Swinson finding her way to the constituency was key. Of course, many on the blue team will say if only TBP had not stood. Some in Labour as well, as they seemed to be leaking votes to Farage's man.
I agree with this. Any Plaid voters willing to vote for the Liberal Democrats would have done so in 2017. The tiny handful left probably account for the depressed turnout.
What boosted the Liberal Democrats appears to have been significant switching from Labour and the Tories. That might be due to remain, or Johnson and Corbyn, or Davies' conviction, or even just a desire to shake things up.
@SouthamObserver - this hasn't been a safe seat for anybody since Brynmawr was removed in the 1970s. It is always marginal. Whatever the headline result the voters will change things around, sometimes very unexpectedly as in 1992 and 2015. So it is not 'a good result for the Liberal Democrats in a safe Tory seat.' That said, it was a good result.
Brynmawr was not removed from the seat until the boundary changes which took effect at the 1983 election.
Much though I admire Frank Field in certain respects, there is a huge dollop of absurdity in forming a party that can, by definition, only ever have one MP and therefore cannot constitute a Parliamentary "group" under any circumstances.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
Hes trying to get elected in Birkenhead, not Runcorn, and he isn't looking to form a government. Kidderminster health concern.........
Kidderminster Health Concern was a bit different. Sure it was single issue at the start, but it's a bit of branding to win the seat (although not the campaign as it turned out, I believe).
Frank Field is already the independent MP for Birkenhead. So it's not just not clear what his announcement is about, in that he's just saying "I'll continue in the same vein... end of press conference".
If it was the Merseyside Social Justice Party, that holds out the prospect of a wider movement, and is potentially interesting. As it is, he's just rebranded Frank Field as Frank Field with a new website.
If the next GE were post-Brexit, would the Lib Dems be so keen to form a "Rejoin Alliance"?
I think so. Once you crash out with No Deal, Brejoin is the quickest way to unfuck things.
Liberals need to start thinking about the terms though. No way to membership of the Euro.
What's actually wrong with euro membership ? A stable currency forces sensible budgets on our exchequers - with Corbyn's 2017 result fresh in the memory surely that's a good thing ? Also speculators can't push the Euro around as they might be able to the pound - it's simply too big.
You're working on the assumption that discussions of the £ v € are ever rational. They aren't (and I include those in my part of the awesome foursome).
I can understand the objections from the right, and once you get as far left as Corbyn. But what issue do those in the centre/centre-left have with it ?
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
It will all be about self interest, of course. But in this case, and for the time being, the parties' interests align.
I don't expect deals in many seats, but I'd be quite surprised of there aren't some.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
If you want to put a bet on with me, I'm offering £50 at evens to say the Lib Dems will stand down in seats for Plaid and the Greens at the GE.
I know nothing of Plaid and Greens down south so will pass on your kind offer
Which admission makes your blanket statement, "she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer" look even more utterly ludicrous.
"The yield on Germany’s 30-year bonds has turned negative for the first time following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, meaning its entire yield curve is now underwater." - Telegraph business
Does he have a chance? Looks like they have only had 3 different MPs since 1950 which should be in his favour. Are there any seats with only 2 MPs since then?
Bolsover was formed in 1950 and has had only Dennis Skinner and Harold Neal (who indeed represented the predecessor seat of Clay Cross from 1944).
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
Forget the WA and backstop, those are dead ends for now.
A standstill transition where we formally leave the EU, stop having MEPs etc, but everything else stays the same. The EU lose a bit of their sequencing advantage but avoid no deal. Boris gets to claim success against the odds and look statesman like. The ERG wont like it but just perhaps being in cabinet positions to negotiate a long term free trade agreement to their liking makes it acceptable to them. Tory remainers would be quite happy to vote for it.
Will the EU and Parliament accept this?
Labour and the LDs will vote against it
I think the only potential blockage (as with all sensible brexits) is the ERG.
If the next GE were post-Brexit, would the Lib Dems be so keen to form a "Rejoin Alliance"?
I think so. Once you crash out with No Deal, Brejoin is the quickest way to unfuck things.
Liberals need to start thinking about the terms though. No way to membership of the Euro.
What's actually wrong with euro membership ? A stable currency forces sensible budgets on our exchequers - with Corbyn's 2017 result fresh in the memory surely that's a good thing ? Also speculators can't push the Euro around as they might be able to the pound - it's simply too big.
You're working on the assumption that discussions of the £ v € are ever rational. They aren't (and I include those in my part of the awesome foursome).
I can understand the objections from the right, and once you get as far left as Corbyn. But what issue do those in the centre/centre-left have with it ?
Even before Brexit you'd get absolutely battered by the right wing press over it, ably assisted by the BBC etc recycling the headlines - Euroff Your Head! and so on. In 2014 the Euro option should have been a perfectly viable option for discussion for an indy Scotland but the Yes campaign ran scared. I hope they'll be a bit more ballsy the next time.
Much though I admire Frank Field in certain respects, there is a huge dollop of absurdity in forming a party that can, by definition, only ever have one MP and therefore cannot constitute a Parliamentary "group" under any circumstances.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
Hes trying to get elected in Birkenhead, not Runcorn, and he isn't looking to form a government. Kidderminster health concern.........
Kidderminster Health Concern was a bit different. Sure it was single issue at the start, but it's a bit of branding to win the seat (although not the campaign as it turned out, I believe).
Frank Field is already the independent MP for Birkenhead. So it's not just not clear what his announcement is about, in that he's just saying "I'll continue in the same vein... end of press conference".
If it was the Merseyside Social Justice Party, that holds out the prospect of a wider movement, and is potentially interesting. As it is, he's just rebranded Frank Field as Frank Field with a new website.
Correct, and its probably all irrelevant anyway. Labour will whallop him. Tribalism and the Labour name is huge in Merseyside. I can't even see him splitting the vote, and letting the evil baby eating Tories in. Labour is so far ahead, they could lose 20,000 votes and still have a majority that Amber Rudd would kill for.
Best he'll manage is 4,000 votes and trim the Labour majority a tiny bit.
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
Forget the WA and backstop, those are dead ends for now.
A standstill transition where we formally leave the EU, stop having MEPs etc, but everything else stays the same. The EU lose a bit of their sequencing advantage but avoid no deal. Boris gets to claim success against the odds and look statesman like. The ERG wont like it but just perhaps being in cabinet positions to negotiate a long term free trade agreement to their liking makes it acceptable to them. Tory remainers would be quite happy to vote for it.
Will the EU and Parliament accept this?
Labour and the LDs will vote against it
I think the only potential blockage (as with all sensible brexits) is the ERG.
I was listening to Jess Philips earlier in the week being interviewed and she was very clear. Show would vote against any deal. It is not just the ERG that have entrenched positions.
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
Forget the WA and backstop, those are dead ends for now.
A standstill transition where we formally leave the EU, stop having MEPs etc, but everything else stays the same. The EU lose a bit of their sequencing advantage but avoid no deal. Boris gets to claim success against the odds and look statesman like. The ERG wont like it but just perhaps being in cabinet positions to negotiate a long term free trade agreement to their liking makes it acceptable to them. Tory remainers would be quite happy to vote for it.
Will the EU and Parliament accept this?
Labour and the LDs will vote against it
I think the only potential blockage (as with all sensible brexits) is the ERG.
'Even in 1997 there was no tactical voting in this seat. None. This is a big and for Labour disturbing change.
As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time.'
There most certainly was tactical voting here in 1997 when Labour's vote share was 3% lower than had been achieved in the Tory landslide year of 1987. Indeed given the national swing, Labour would have been in serious contention to win the seat in 1997 - but tactical voting prevented that as sufficient Labour voters switched to the LibDems to reverse the narrow Tory gain of 1992.
So how do you account for a Labour vote effectively holding steady (up in relative, down in absolute) terms? This in a seat with a popular local(ish) Tory MP who as late as April was thought to be the only one in Wales with a chance of holding his seat, and an undoubtedly popular and successful local Liberal Democrat 130 votes behind him?
If ever there was a seat where there should have been huge tactical voting in 1997 this was it. But it didn't happen.
On the basis of what was happening nationally in 1997 , Labour could reasonably have expected to add 8% - 10% to its 1992 vote share. That did not happen - largely because of the very narrow Tory gain in 1992 . Voters perceived Livesey to be the stronger anti - Tory alternative , and sufficient voted for him tactically to oust the Tory and effectively denied Labour the circa 35% vote share it otherwise could have obtained.
Does he have a chance? Looks like they have only had 3 different MPs since 1950 which should be in his favour. Are there any seats with only 2 MPs since then?
Bolsover was formed in 1950 and has had only Dennis Skinner and Harold Neal (who indeed represented the predecessor seat of Clay Cross from 1944).
Impressive loyalty! Thanks
FWIW, the nearest others I found which have largely survived boundary changes with three MPs are:
Derby South (Nobel Prize winner Philip Noel-Baker 1950-1970, but MP for the whole of Derby 1936-50, then Walter Johnson 1970-83, and Margaret Beckett since then).
Gainsborough, which has had three MPs since 1924 (Harry Crookshank 1924-56, Marcus Kimball 1956-83, and Edward Leigh since then). I don't know if Leigh plans one more term, but a century with only three MPs would be quite a landmark.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
Magnanimous as ever Malcolm! The difficulty in the LDs standing down for the Greens, is finding any constituencies where they are competitive. Brighton Pavilion's a no-brainer, but they did that last time. The other one last time was Skipton and Ripon, no-one noticed but it probably saved £500 for the local party. I'm sure the Greens could nominate a couple of target seats but they aren't close anywhere else.
And 2 possible seats - Solihull and Bristol West - would be particularly difficult as they were Lib Dem held in recent history.
It's actually easier to identify seats to stand down in for Plaid.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
SNIP
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
SNIP
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
SNIP
I know nothing of Plaid and Greens down south so will pass on your kind offer
Which admission makes your blanket statement, "she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer" look even more utterly ludicrous.
Not if you go on their past record as unprincipled lying toerags. They cannot be trusted , serial liars and she is one of the worst and her voting record is shocking. Worse than any right wing Tory. She for sure will be all for herself , then Lib Dems, the other parties will be just there as cannon fodder, to be used and abused as required. Nothing ludicrous about it, leopards do not change their spots.
I think this election takes us a further step to result most of the nation want. Brexit with a mutually beneficial to the UK and EU. Labour looks increasingly weak and with so many of the key marginals Labour/Conservative battles the chances of Corbyn triggering a VONC surely are reducing. No deal won't benefit either party so some agreement must be on the cards. With a weak Labour Johnson's electoral chances look very good, so the ball is in the EU court now, don't act and a harmful Brexit for them is on the cards.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
SNIP
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
SNIP
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
SNIP
I know nothing of Plaid and Greens down south so will pass on your kind offer
Which admission makes your blanket statement, "she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer" look even more utterly ludicrous.
Not if you go on their past record as unprincipled lying toerags. They cannot be trusted , serial liars and she is one of the worst and her voting record is shocking. Worse than any right wing Tory. She for sure will be all for herself , then Lib Dems, the other parties will be just there as cannon fodder, to be used and abused as required. Nothing ludicrous about it, leopards do not change their spots.
I think this election takes us a further step to result most of the nation want. Brexit with a mutually beneficial to the UK and EU. Labour looks increasingly weak and with so many of the key marginals Labour/Conservative battles the chances of Corbyn triggering a VONC surely are reducing. No deal won't benefit either party so some agreement must be on the cards. With a weak Labour Johnson's electoral chances look very good, so the ball is in the EU court now, don't act and a harmful Brexit for them is on the cards.
Unless and until Labour become an actual Remain party (and can convince enough Lib Dem MPs/members/potential voters of the fact), then (outside of Wales) the "Remain Alliance" boils down to the Greens agreeing to stand aside almost everywhere and support the Lib Dem candidate. Since this would effectively reverse most of the credibility they've painstakingly built up over the last few decades as a proper party, they'd effectively be gambling their entire movement on a single issue, and one that isn't even their stated raison d'etre.
Granted, there are a few areas of Wales where Plaid are also a factor, as was the case in Brecon. However, there is basically zero chance of a similar deal ever happening with the SNP. And most of the remaining independents will either be standing down or standing on their own terms at the next election - if they wanted to work with Lib Dems, they'd just join them (some might still), and since they have given up any pretence of starting a full party, they have nothing to offer in reciprocity.
Collaboration might work for a one-off by election, but it has a long way to go to take hold in a General Election. The harder it is for voters to determine whether Labour or the Lib Dems are likely to be ahead in any given constituency, the more split the Remain vote becomes, and the better things get for the Tories.
Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!
If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
It is a f**king disgrace that this country is going to have endure self-inflicted economic collapse because of around 18-20% of the voting public.
It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.
I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.
and yet you probably didnt think that in 2005 when Blair fked the place up with about 23% of the vote
What ever your views of Blair's governments and policies, nothing he did comes close to the insanity of No Deal Brexit.
so the great financial crisis is just like a small irritant ?
it didnt have any effect on the UK or shape the current political climate ?
The global financial crisis was global, hence the name. It started in America and was neither caused nor exacerbated by Tony Blair, Gordon Brown or, for that matter, Boris Johnson.
Brexit, on the other hand, is a purely Conservative concoction, as is driving over the edge of a cliff. You can't even blame Eton because although it did give us the three main protagonists, Cameron, Boris and JRM, it did also nurture Rory the Europhile Tory.
yeah youve been pumping that GFC bollocks for years, keep believing, no one else does
Everyone else does which is why Google has 20 million search results for global financial crisis, and there is a Wikipedia page (possibly more than one) and umpteen Youtube videos. Everyone apart from a few numpties still parroting George Osborne's ge2010 attack lines, when even he had his fingers crossed behind his back, and has subsequently said Labour got it right.
Much though I admire Frank Field in certain respects, there is a huge dollop of absurdity in forming a party that can, by definition, only ever have one MP and therefore cannot constitute a Parliamentary "group" under any circumstances.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
Hes trying to get elected in Birkenhead, not Runcorn, and he isn't looking to form a government. Kidderminster health concern.........
Kidderminster Health Concern was a bit different. Sure it was single issue at the start, but it's a bit of branding to win the seat (although not the campaign as it turned out, I believe).
Frank Field is already the independent MP for Birkenhead. So it's not just not clear what his announcement is about, in that he's just saying "I'll continue in the same vein... end of press conference".
If it was the Merseyside Social Justice Party, that holds out the prospect of a wider movement, and is potentially interesting. As it is, he's just rebranded Frank Field as Frank Field with a new website.
Correct, and its probably all irrelevant anyway. Labour will whallop him. Tribalism and the Labour name is huge in Merseyside. I can't even see him splitting the vote, and letting the evil baby eating Tories in. Labour is so far ahead, they could lose 20,000 votes and still have a majority that Amber Rudd would kill for.
Best he'll manage is 4,000 votes and trim the Labour majority a tiny bit.
I think he'll do quite a bit better than that, but still lose. He's box office in Birkenhead to be fair - he's been there for 40 years and is pretty assiduous, not just cruising in on the brand (although he could've afforded to).
Note that John Browne got 3,000 in Winchester in 1992 despite having a much shorter tenure and being deselected under a cloud of scandal.
Much though I admire Frank Field in certain respects, there is a huge dollop of absurdity in forming a party that can, by definition, only ever have one MP and therefore cannot constitute a Parliamentary "group" under any circumstances.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
Hes trying to get elected in Birkenhead, not Runcorn, and he isn't looking to form a government. Kidderminster health concern.........
Kidderminster Health Concern was a bit different. Sure it was single issue at the start, but it's a bit of branding to win the seat (although not the campaign as it turned out, I believe).
Frank Field is already the independent MP for Birkenhead. So it's not just not clear what his announcement is about, in that he's just saying "I'll continue in the same vein... end of press conference".
If it was the Merseyside Social Justice Party, that holds out the prospect of a wider movement, and is potentially interesting. As it is, he's just rebranded Frank Field as Frank Field with a new website.
Correct, and its probably all irrelevant anyway. Labour will whallop him. Tribalism and the Labour name is huge in Merseyside. I can't even see him splitting the vote, and letting the evil baby eating Tories in. Labour is so far ahead, they could lose 20,000 votes and still have a majority that Amber Rudd would kill for.
Best he'll manage is 4,000 votes and trim the Labour majority a tiny bit.
Labour are already on course to lose bucketloads of votes to other parties, many and various. They can't poll in the 20s and for there not to be some dramatic results. These are not ordinary times.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
10% swing sounds massive but here is a simple sample. Con 32% down 10%, LD 17% up 10%. Not impossible in current circumstances. There is no Green/PC alliance assumed here.
I think this election takes us a further step to result most of the nation want. Brexit with a mutually beneficial to the UK and EU. Labour looks increasingly weak and with so many of the key marginals Labour/Conservative battles the chances of Corbyn triggering a VONC surely are reducing. No deal won't benefit either party so some agreement must be on the cards. With a weak Labour Johnson's electoral chances look very good, so the ball is in the EU court now, don't act and a harmful Brexit for them is on the cards.
Oh, yes, they are shit scared !
Who said anything about being shit scared. The position now is they have to move or hurt themselves as well as our great nation. Not a great position for the new President to inherit. The WA will be amended and get through parliament I predict.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
Magnanimous as ever Malcolm! The difficulty in the LDs standing down for the Greens, is finding any constituencies where they are competitive. Brighton Pavilion's a no-brainer, but they did that last time. The other one last time was Skipton and Ripon, no-one noticed but it probably saved £500 for the local party. I'm sure the Greens could nominate a couple of target seats but they aren't close anywhere else.
And 2 possible seats - Solihull and Bristol West - would be particularly difficult as they were Lib Dem held in recent history.
It's actually easier to identify seats to stand down in for Plaid.
A bit surprised that the Libdem did stand aside at Skipton and Ripon in view of the electoral history of the area. David Austick famously did win the Ripon by election for the Liberals in July 1973 on the same day that Clement Freud triumphed at the Isle of Ely. At Skipton Claire Brooks came very close to winning in the 1970s.
"The yield on Germany’s 30-year bonds has turned negative for the first time following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, meaning its entire yield curve is now underwater." - Telegraph business
So Switzerland is also underwater ? Why is everyone with money moving their funds there ?
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
All the BXP are doing is making Brexit even more impossible to carry out.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
If there is a Tory-BXP deal [ Trump deal ? ], all Remain voting Tories [ whatever is left ] will vote LD.
Does anyone on here have any ideas what Boris can do regarding a "deal". The EU have said they will not renegotiate, Parliament have rejected the "deal" three times and there is no chance it will ever get through. We are a democracy and we voted for Brexit. As a democracy he must uphold that result. What the LDs and Greens etc are mandating is a rejection of democracy. Unless the EU buckles massively then No Deal will happen as parliament will not pass anything that could remotely called a deal. They have voted against every idea so far
I just heard on the news that the new LD MP has said she is going to seek out Boris to tell him of the dangers of No Deal. Why did her party vote againt the bloody deal then?
Forget the WA and backstop, those are dead ends for now.
A standstill transition where we formally leave the EU, stop having MEPs etc, but everything else stays the same. The EU lose a bit of their sequencing advantage but avoid no deal. Boris gets to claim success against the odds and look statesman like. The ERG wont like it but just perhaps being in cabinet positions to negotiate a long term free trade agreement to their liking makes it acceptable to them. Tory remainers would be quite happy to vote for it.
Will the EU and Parliament accept this?
Labour and the LDs will vote against it
I think the only potential blockage (as with all sensible brexits) is the ERG.
Corbyn will object if that is Boris' plan.
Of course plenty will be against but if 90% of the ERG vote for it there would be enough votes.
I do fail to see what anyone who claims to either want Brexit or to uphold the referendum can legitimately have against this. It is us leaving, without catastrophe, and the type of brexit is undecided. With no current govt majority it would essentially be Brexit with the public deciding on the future relationship through a subsequent GE.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
10% swing sounds massive but here is a simple sample. Con 32% down 10%, LD 17% up 10%. Not impossible in current circumstances. There is no Green/PC alliance assumed here.
I think this analysis is misguided - it's considering 20% swings from Con --> Lib but not 25-30% swings from Lab --> Lib (which would bring plenty of e.g. London seats into play). The latter are far more likely than the former, given the Remain:Leave makeup of each party's vote.
Much though I admire Frank Field in certain respects, there is a huge dollop of absurdity in forming a party that can, by definition, only ever have one MP and therefore cannot constitute a Parliamentary "group" under any circumstances.
I also quite like the pledges... "Abolish child poverty IN BIRKENHEAD!" "Protect every worker IN BIRKENHEAD from low pay!".
You can picture someone saying, "but I'm from Runcorn, Frank" and him replying, "well then, I don't give a stuff whether your child has shoes and you're paid a farthing a day".
Hes trying to get elected in Birkenhead, not Runcorn, and he isn't looking to form a government. Kidderminster health concern.........
Kidderminster Health Concern was a bit different. Sure it was single issue at the start, but it's a bit of branding to win the seat (although not the campaign as it turned out, I believe).
Frank Field is already the independent MP for Birkenhead. So it's not just not clear what his announcement is about, in that he's just saying "I'll continue in the same vein... end of press conference".
If it was the Merseyside Social Justice Party, that holds out the prospect of a wider movement, and is potentially interesting. As it is, he's just rebranded Frank Field as Frank Field with a new website.
Correct, and its probably all irrelevant anyway. Labour will whallop him. Tribalism and the Labour name is huge in Merseyside. I can't even see him splitting the vote, and letting the evil baby eating Tories in. Labour is so far ahead, they could lose 20,000 votes and still have a majority that Amber Rudd would kill for.
Best he'll manage is 4,000 votes and trim the Labour majority a tiny bit.
I think he'll do quite a bit better than that, but still lose. He's box office in Birkenhead to be fair - he's been there for 40 years and is pretty assiduous, not just cruising in on the brand (although he could've afforded to).
Note that John Browne got 3,000 in Winchester in 1992 despite having a much shorter tenure and being deselected under a cloud of scandal.
Personally I would vote for Frank Field - but I expect him to lose.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
Magnanimous as ever Malcolm! The difficulty in the LDs standing down for the Greens, is finding any constituencies where they are competitive. Brighton Pavilion's a no-brainer, but they did that last time. The other one last time was Skipton and Ripon, no-one noticed but it probably saved £500 for the local party. I'm sure the Greens could nominate a couple of target seats but they aren't close anywhere else.
And 2 possible seats - Solihull and Bristol West - would be particularly difficult as they were Lib Dem held in recent history.
It's actually easier to identify seats to stand down in for Plaid.
A bit surprised that the Libdem did stand aside at Skipton and Ripon in view of the electoral history of the area. David Austick famously did win the Ripon by election for the Liberals in July 1973 on the same day that Clement Freud triumphed at the Isle of Ely. At Skipton Claire Brooks came very close to winning in the 1970s.
one of the norwich seats used to be a top target for greens.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
What makes you think this? They were pretty unified and determined in preventing May from taking us out on time, what makes you think that's changed?
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
Yep, it's odd. It would have to be currently a Tory held seat, which would 'go green'. aint many of them.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
It happened in Northern Ireland all the time.
For example, in 1997, Willie Thompson, UUP, won West Tyrone on only 34.6%, whereas the combined SF+SDLP vote was 63.0% (SF 30.9, SDLP 32.1).
Conversely, in South Belfast in 2005, Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) won on only 32.3%, whereas the combined UUP+DUP vote was 51.1% (DUP 28.4, UUP 22.7).
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
The geniuses at work in Corbyn's back office are betting the farm on a Boris No Deal being so damaging that in the chaos Neo-Communist Labour get into power.
I think this election takes us a further step to result most of the nation want. Brexit with a mutually beneficial to the UK and EU. Labour looks increasingly weak and with so many of the key marginals Labour/Conservative battles the chances of Corbyn triggering a VONC surely are reducing. No deal won't benefit either party so some agreement must be on the cards. With a weak Labour Johnson's electoral chances look very good, so the ball is in the EU court now, don't act and a harmful Brexit for them is on the cards.
Most of the nation wants? Where does that idea come from?
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
Labour voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, in that poll had it passed Labour would be narrowly, Labour also voted against No Deal which on that poll gives a Tory majority and Labour voted to extend Article 50 which if done again sees the Tories fall to third behind Labour and the Brexit Party on the same poll
"The yield on Germany’s 30-year bonds has turned negative for the first time following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, meaning its entire yield curve is now underwater." - Telegraph business
So Switzerland is also underwater ? Why is everyone with money moving their funds there ?
It kept gold reserves safe from Nazi Germany, it's surrounded by mountains, poor people are illegal and everybody owns a gun. Not my first choice of a place to live, but rich people seem to like it.
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
The geniuses at work in Corbyn's back office are betting the farm on a Boris No Deal being so damaging that in the chaos Neo-Communist Labour get into power.
Really? Has this changed since May, where they clearly acted to force her to extend rather than to force her to No Deal?
I do fail to see what anyone who claims to either want Brexit or to uphold the referendum can legitimately have against this. It is us leaving, without catastrophe, and the type of brexit is undecided. With no current govt majority it would essentially be Brexit with the public deciding on the future relationship through a subsequent GE.
Your view is close to mine. We will get a negotiated Brexit before a general election and Johnson will deliver it.
But as per PT, what I envisage is that this means the WA (with tinkering) and that it will not be resolved until next year.
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YSNIP
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
Magnanimous as ever Malcolm! The difficulty in the LDs standing down for the Greens, is finding any constituencies where they are competitive. Brighton Pavilion's a no-brainer, but they did that last time. The other one last time was Skipton and Ripon, no-one noticed but it probably saved £500 for the local party. I'm sure the Greens could nominate a couple of target seats but they aren't close anywhere else.
And 2 possible seats - Solihull and Bristol West - would be particularly difficult as they were Lib Dem held in recent history.
It's actually easier to identify seats to stand down in for Plaid.
TPFKAR, I am a tad biased against the Lib Dems to be fair.
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
The geniuses at work in Corbyn's back office are betting the farm on a Boris No Deal being so damaging that in the chaos Neo-Communist Labour get into power.
On that poll No Deal is the only way to ensure Corbyn Labour do not get into power, indeed the main beneficiaries of No Deal would likely be the LDs ultimately rather than Corbyn Labour
Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around...
The LDs aren't noted for laying aside the triumphalism after their previous little spurts. If I were Plaid and the Greens, I'd get a written commitment from JoSwin that the LDs will stand down in at least one constituency each in the event of a GE, particularly since the 'we didn't really need them anyway' noises have started.
One? If this alliance is to work it'll need the Greens to stand aside in at least 30 seats. In return for that, I'd expect at least half a dozen seats where the LDs return the favour.
And Plaid Cymru and the Greens have just done the LibDems a massive favour.
What did they get in return?
If the answer is nothing, then I don't think there will be many more favours.
Okay - put your money where your mouth is. I say the Lib Dems will stand aside for Plaid in one or more Parliamentary seat at the General Election. £50 at evens? What say you?
YBarddCwsc appears to have something of an animus against the Lib Dems, but I suspect the second part of Swinson's statement will dissuade him from taking up your ...generous... offer: ...but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue...
Clearly there will be haggling over the details, but I think it impossible to imagine that there won't be at least some give and take in the more obvious constituencies, if there is an election any time soon.
Nigel , don't be a silly boy , she is just looking for them to give the LD's a free run, they will not reciprocate, they are chancers and it will be a one way street with that lying chancer.
If you want to put a bet on with me, I'm offering £50 at evens to say the Lib Dems will stand down in seats for Plaid and the Greens at the GE.
In 2017 the LibDems didn't stand in Skip & Rip in return for the Greens not standing in Harrogate. Julian Smith just about managed to hold off the Green challenge.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
I do fail to see what anyone who claims to either want Brexit or to uphold the referendum can legitimately have against this. It is us leaving, without catastrophe, and the type of brexit is undecided. With no current govt majority it would essentially be Brexit with the public deciding on the future relationship through a subsequent GE.
Your view is close to mine. We will get a negotiated Brexit before a general election and Johnson will deliver it.
But as per PT, what I envisage is that this means the WA (with tinkering) and that it will not be resolved until next year.
Then an election.
Every indication is that this would be electoral suicide for the Tories. Why would they go along with it?
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Maybe not the Greens' thing but I feel like betting should be involved somehow.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
On Edinburgh: the Scottish Greens are their own party, and LDs are not proposing alliances in Scotland as they refuse to work with SNP.
Those other seats, yeah, maybe.
I just don't see Greens being able to run an election that can win those seats: we don't have the infrastructure, data and will to do that even in those areas.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
The Lib Dems got 3% in Brighton Kemptown in 2017 (Greens didn't bother standing). In Hove, the Lib Dems and Green got 4% combined.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
It’s obvious you are a conservative, floating such a top down solution.
Both the Greens and LibDems are more decentralised with more power at constituency level than you are used to. If there isn’t a national agreement then any process would have to be bottom up. Open joint selection is a possibility.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
An interesting notion. There's also Sheffield Central and Norwich South ?
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
On Edinburgh: the Scottish Greens are their own party, and LDs are not proposing alliances in Scotland as they refuse to work with SNP.
Those other seats, yeah, maybe.
I just don't see Greens being able to run an election that can win those seats: we don't have the infrastructure, data and will to do that even in those areas.
If there is an alliance there is a secondary question as to the extent that the parties will be willing to help each other out locally, particularly where target seats aren’t thick on the ground and activists would rather not travel. In B&R there was active help from both PC and Greens at member/councillor level, although all the organisation was supplied by the LDs.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
It’s obvious you are a conservative, floating such a top down solution.
Both the Greens and LibDems are more decentralised with more power at constituency level than you are used to. If there isn’t a national agreement then any process would have to be bottom up. Open joint selection is a possibility.
Oh, it would have to be a national agreement; I'm just floating how it could work in practice. And no doubt some constituency parties might be very unhappy. FWIW, Tory Associations would be too, which is (inter alia) why I never subscribed to the notion that a Brexit Party pact was likely.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
On Edinburgh: the Scottish Greens are their own party, and LDs are not proposing alliances in Scotland as they refuse to work with SNP.
Those other seats, yeah, maybe.
I just don't see Greens being able to run an election that can win those seats: we don't have the infrastructure, data and will to do that even in those areas.
No, but you might start with clear second places in future.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
All the BXP are doing is making Brexit even more impossible to carry out.
Of course!
I mean, if they actually win, they'll have nothing to moan about will they?
This is the thing. If Labour had the courage of their collective convictions they would throw everything into preventing a Oct 31 departure. If they succeeded they would destroy Johnson's premiership and enormously increase Lab's chances at the next election.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
What makes you think this? They were pretty unified and determined in preventing May from taking us out on time, what makes you think that's changed?
Although many in Labour did vote as you describe, some did not. Although that is not a sin (no party is 100% unified) each movement was also accompanied by contrary voices in Labour and a sense of lassitude or lack of engagement. The only people fired up with passion and determination to Leave regardless are Tory Leavers such as the ERG, and the only people passionate in the other direction are Tory Remainers and the Libs. I believe you when you say that it did what it did. My point is that it is reluctant, disengaged, and ignoring other opportunities. If one wishes to choose a Remain or FTT advocate, Labour do not at the moment stand out.
The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.
Alternatively: - The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and - Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?
There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:
Isle of Wight Sheffield Central The three Brighton seats Skipton & Ripon Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...
Comments
The memory of those days with the "Tiller Girls" at the London Palladium are still quite raw .... and raw being the word as the outfit fell apart at the 1962 Royal Variety Performance and "Peter" was seen in the raw by HRH Duke of Edinburgh and had to seek refuge backstage from the old sea dog.
Labour and the LDs will vote against it
Edit: Maybe its due to both 'endgames' requiring the WA, and therefore the backstop.
What are the chances of a successful Labour coup before the next election? With the largely pro-Remain membership, Corbyn would surely find it hard to work his magic third time around.
Could end up like Welsh lambs and having to burn them on pyres
Frank Field is already the independent MP for Birkenhead. So it's not just not clear what his announcement is about, in that he's just saying "I'll continue in the same vein... end of press conference".
If it was the Merseyside Social Justice Party, that holds out the prospect of a wider movement, and is potentially interesting. As it is, he's just rebranded Frank Field as Frank Field with a new website.
But in this case, and for the time being, the parties' interests align.
I don't expect deals in many seats, but I'd be quite surprised of there aren't some.
"The yield on Germany’s 30-year bonds has turned negative for the first time following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, meaning its entire yield curve is now underwater." - Telegraph business
I then made the mistake of visiting Brynmawr, in November.
Please, please let Liberals take Raab's seat!
Best he'll manage is 4,000 votes and trim the Labour majority a tiny bit.
Derby South (Nobel Prize winner Philip Noel-Baker 1950-1970, but MP for the whole of Derby 1936-50, then Walter Johnson 1970-83, and Margaret Beckett since then).
Gainsborough, which has had three MPs since 1924 (Harry Crookshank 1924-56, Marcus Kimball 1956-83, and Edward Leigh since then). I don't know if Leigh plans one more term, but a century with only three MPs would be quite a landmark.
The difficulty in the LDs standing down for the Greens, is finding any constituencies where they are competitive. Brighton Pavilion's a no-brainer, but they did that last time. The other one last time was Skipton and Ripon, no-one noticed but it probably saved £500 for the local party. I'm sure the Greens could nominate a couple of target seats but they aren't close anywhere else.
And 2 possible seats - Solihull and Bristol West - would be particularly difficult as they were Lib Dem held in recent history.
It's actually easier to identify seats to stand down in for Plaid.
Granted, there are a few areas of Wales where Plaid are also a factor, as was the case in Brecon. However, there is basically zero chance of a similar deal ever happening with the SNP. And most of the remaining independents will either be standing down or standing on their own terms at the next election - if they wanted to work with Lib Dems, they'd just join them (some might still), and since they have given up any pretence of starting a full party, they have nothing to offer in reciprocity.
Collaboration might work for a one-off by election, but it has a long way to go to take hold in a General Election. The harder it is for voters to determine whether Labour or the Lib Dems are likely to be ahead in any given constituency, the more split the Remain vote becomes, and the better things get for the Tories.
Note that John Browne got 3,000 in Winchester in 1992 despite having a much shorter tenure and being deselected under a cloud of scandal.
The point that I have a deeply sub-optimal knowledge of the electoral landscape of rural Wales is well made and duly taken on board.
But ...
No, why must one always struggle for a but.
But nothing.
But they don't and they won't.
Instead, Lab will fuck around, we'll leave on time(ish), Con will get its @HYUFD victory, and Lab won't be in power for years and years. Not since IDS's tenure have I seen a party so unconcerned with achieving power and so shit at the actual mechanisms of politics.
I do fail to see what anyone who claims to either want Brexit or to uphold the referendum can legitimately have against this. It is us leaving, without catastrophe, and the type of brexit is undecided. With no current govt majority it would essentially be Brexit with the public deciding on the future relationship through a subsequent GE.
- The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and
- Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.
For example, in 1997, Willie Thompson, UUP, won West Tyrone on only 34.6%, whereas the combined SF+SDLP vote was 63.0% (SF 30.9, SDLP 32.1).
Conversely, in South Belfast in 2005, Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) won on only 32.3%, whereas the combined UUP+DUP vote was 51.1% (DUP 28.4, UUP 22.7).
But as per PT, what I envisage is that this means the WA (with tinkering) and that it will not be resolved until next year.
Then an election.
Isle of Wight
Sheffield Central
The three Brighton seats
Skipton & Ripon
Edinburgh North
Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.
More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.
Those other seats, yeah, maybe.
I just don't see Greens being able to run an election that can win those seats: we don't have the infrastructure, data and will to do that even in those areas.
Both the Greens and LibDems are more decentralised with more power at constituency level than you are used to. If there isn’t a national agreement then any process would have to be bottom up. Open joint selection is a possibility.
There's also Sheffield Central and Norwich South ?
In Peterborough, voting Tory let Labour in.
I mean, if they actually win, they'll have nothing to moan about will they?
https://twitter.com/andrewspoooner/status/1157252062519992320