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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the swing in tomorrow’s by-election is in line with today’s

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,983
    Drutt said:

    You can train effectively for our future insectivorous existence by simply riding a bicycle round the reservoir. Non-optional insect eating guaranteed.

    On topic, 5-1 on a party just four points behind (UNS klaxon notwithstanding) is still value, right?
    5/1 is spoken as "5-1 against".
    "5-1 on" means 1/5, not 5/1
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    I'm watching on https://edition.cnn.com/

    Says dem debate live in the left corner near the top click and watch advert then it goes to the stream.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Thanks.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    AndyJS said:

    Is it possible to watch this debate online from the UK?

    It's a shitty stream that keeps dying on me but
    http://123tvnow.com/watch/cnn/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    I'm watching on https://edition.cnn.com/

    Says dem debate live in the left corner near the top click and watch advert then it goes to the stream.

    I have "not available in your region" for that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    It's a shitty stream that keeps dying on me but
    http://123tvnow.com/watch/cnn/
    Thanks.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    I have "not available in your region" for that.
    I just searched 'live link dem debate stream' on google to find it, can't see why that would work in UK but not Japan (I believe you just seems odd)

    I'm only seeing bits and pieces but Warren and Sanders are probably pretty happy with the recent round of debates.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716


    I just searched 'live link dem debate stream' on google to find it, can't see why that would work in UK but not Japan (I believe you just seems odd)

    Basically because media licensing is really dumb.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    Not watching, but going by the Guardian commentary, it will be amusing to watch all those attacking Biden having to get behind him if he wins the nomination.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Biden isn't dazzlingly great and still loses his train of thought occasionally but he's good enough.

    Kamala has occasionally moments but she's patchy, Cory Booker is doing just well enough to take Kamala down as the main challenger.

    I know it's still August but I think Biden's got this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    I darent watch lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    Ok seems fine according to 538 !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    edited August 2019
    I just woke up and looked at the clock, and realised my fellow LDs are just now going out on their EM delivery runs all across B&R.

    Downthread somebody talked about expectations management, with this now seen as a by-election the LibDems must win. Aside from the implications for parliament and the political narrative, this will matter inside the party also. The party has come together for this campaign in a way that hasn’t really been seen since before the coalition (Eastleigh possibly excepted, although that was unusual for so many reasons). It really does feel like the winning days are back, and activists have travelled from all across the UK, even making day trips where travel time has exceeded campaigning time. The impact on morale of either a win or a loss will be considerable.

    Meanwhile on BF the Tories are in to just over 6.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972

    It is the Reformation. It is a break with corrupt and increasingly illegitimate corporatism.

    In years to come it will be seen as farsighted. That is not how I initially saw it but I have changed my mind.
    Lol. Yet big money probably has less influence within the EU than in the US or Uk.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    AndyJS said:

    It'll be difficult for the Tories to find coalition partners. Maybe it would be a minority arrangement with an agreement from the LDs not to vote them down.

    That’s nit going to happen.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    IanB2 said:

    I just woke up and looked at the clock, and realised my fellow LDs are just now going out on their EM delivery runs all across B&R.

    Downthread somebody talked about expectations management, with this now seen as a by-election the LibDems must win. Aside from the implications for parliament and the political narrative, this will matter inside the party also. The party has come together for this campaign in a way that hasn’t really been seen since before the coalition (Eastleigh possibly excepted, although that was unusual for so many reasons). It really does feel like the winning days are back, and activists have travelled from all across the UK, even making day trips where travel time has exceeded campaigning time. The impact on morale of either a win or a loss will be considerable.

    Meanwhile on BF the Tories are in to just over 6.

    Lib Dems to win by 5-7000.. this is now reverse expectations management. They have this in the bag and have had for the last 6 weeks. Even CCHQ know they are going to lose and lose by some margin
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    More important today is the start of the Ashes..looks like a damp one in Brum so a day for bowling
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    edited August 2019
    I do worry that, whatever the outcome of today’s by-election, the Lib Dems are fighting the last war. The party’s digital efforts have been non-existent verging on pitiful... and meanwhile Wormtongue Cummings is now installed in No 10. You can’t win a GE on Focus leaflets alone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    edited August 2019
    kle4 said:

    Nope, there at 0600 until past 2200. Many people I know enjoy the experience, though most of them are presiding officers who get a bit more. The visiting officers had it even better but this latest time got no more than the presiding officers.

    Sounds awful to me, being at the count is way better - sure it is going through the night, but I'd probably be up anyway and get just as much money for less time, and the excitement of seeing the result (for locals anyway, the parliamentary is safe so no excitement).
    And it doesn’t need a days holiday, so that is on top of normal salary. Yes, many people who work in local government enjoy it, for the responsibility, the interaction with the public, and the affirmation of their role within our political process and history.

    Although I wouldn’t fancy one with a handful of voters, for sure. I bet they are not allowed to close up even if everyone’s voted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972

    I do worry that, whatever the outcome of today’s by-election, the Lib Dems are fighting the last war. The party’s digital efforts have been non-existent verging on pitiful... and meanwhile Wormtongue Cummings is now installed in No 10. You can’t win a GE on Focus leaflets alone.

    Funnily enough I was just thinking the same. It’s a very sophisticated operation, involving a lot of technology, whose end product is still knocking on and posting stuff through doors. The only caveat is whether as a visiting activist I would be able to see an effective digital campaign if there was one?

    The Tories and BXP Ltd. seem to be relying on direct mail, which is not that much more modern.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    I do worry that, whatever the outcome of today’s by-election, the Lib Dems are fighting the last war. The party’s digital efforts have been non-existent verging on pitiful... and meanwhile Wormtongue Cummings is now installed in No 10. You can’t win a GE on Focus leaflets alone.

    You can in Brecon and Radnor
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    edited August 2019
    timmo said:

    Lib Dems to win by 5-7000.. this is now reverse expectations management. They have this in the bag and have had for the last 6 weeks. Even CCHQ know they are going to lose and lose by some margin
    It felt that way up until this week, and you may still be right. The Eastleigh style split in the Leaver vote gave the LDs a considerable advantage, since it was obvious from the start that the Remain vote would mostly come their way. It’s the visible shift from BXP to Tory as Bozo has taken office that has, surprisingly belatedly, driven the odds much closer.

    One factoid from the campaign is the LD view that there is an 85% correlation between referendum vote and by-election intention,

    If it is close, it may well be the BXP Ltd. pensioners being too keen to post back their postal ballots that won it for the LibDems.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    timmo said:

    You can in Brecon and Radnor
    Provided you have the volunteers to deliver them. That the LDs are attempting an early morning delivery today is remarkable.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    IanB2 said:

    Provided you have the volunteers to deliver them. That the LDs are attempting an early morning delivery today is remarkable.
    It will only be in the higher density housing areas..i doubt remote farmhouses will get a dawn raid
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Brecon & Radnorshire prediction:

    LD 45%, Con 37%, BRX 11%, Lab 5.5%, Others 1.5%.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    AndyJS said:

    Brecon & Radnorshire prediction:

    LD 45%, Con 37%, BRX 11%, Lab 5.5%, Others 1.5%.

    Turnout?

    I'm not sure who benefits from high / low.

    Will the Boris media blitz increase it?

    If so will Boris haters cancel out Boris enthusiasts?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    philiph said:

    Turnout?

    I'm not sure who benefits from high / low.

    Will the Boris media blitz increase it?

    If so will Boris haters cancel out Boris enthusiasts?
    LDs above 50%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,840
    philiph said:

    Turnout?

    I'm not sure who benefits from high / low.

    Will the Boris media blitz increase it?

    If so will Boris haters cancel out Boris enthusiasts?
    If Boris thought it winnable he would have put in more of an appearance.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited August 2019

    I do worry that, whatever the outcome of today’s by-election, the Lib Dems are fighting the last war. The party’s digital efforts have been non-existent verging on pitiful... and meanwhile Wormtongue Cummings is now installed in No 10. You can’t win a GE on Focus leaflets alone.

    I don't think this is entirely true.

    The LibDem leadership election was electronic and very slick. I only had to click a simple link sent to me by email and I'd voted. Just like that, as Tommy Cooper might say.

    The Tory leadership election, by contrast, was an exercise in C19th bungledom.

    Additionally, the LibDems have been very, very, on the ball with e-mobilisation. I've had a succession of targeted emails for B&R activity.

    They may not, yet, be as Machiavellian as Cummings with their social media targeting but in lots of other ways the LibDems are ahead of the game. If we could combine that macro-level messaging with the brilliant local ground work we'd be even more formidable.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,888
    AndyJS said:

    It'll be difficult for the Tories to find coalition partners. Maybe it would be a minority arrangement with an agreement from the LDs not to vote them down.
    I think it's going to be difficult for *anyone* to find coalition partners the next time the Scottish Parliament returns a more "traditional" result i.e. one party not with or close to an outright majority.

    The political mindset has drifted back towards a FPTP style of thought, one party having a working majority and the rest doing what they can to vote it down, despite the fact that it's a PR-type set up that was designed to effectively force parties to collaborate on legislation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    edited August 2019
    Interesting to see all the comments on insects earlier in this thread. Perhaps they could become a locust alternative to meat?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    timmo said:

    LDs above 50%
    If the LibDems top 50% here, then bet on Jo Swinson as next Leader of the Opposition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    timmo said:

    Lib Dems to win by 5-7000.. this is now reverse expectations management. They have this in the bag and have had for the last 6 weeks. Even CCHQ know they are going to lose and lose by some margin
    You have a source in CCHQ?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    You have a source in CCHQ?
    Plenty
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    I think it's going to be difficult for *anyone* to find coalition partners the next time the Scottish Parliament returns a more "traditional" result i.e. one party not with or close to an outright majority.

    The political mindset has drifted back towards a FPTP style of thought, one party having a working majority and the rest doing what they can to vote it down, despite the fact that it's a PR-type set up that was designed to effectively force parties to collaborate on legislation.
    The system of voting used for Scotland and Wales was always a shambles, and also profoundly undemocratic. It means, for example, that Labour will always win most seats in Wales unless it dips below about 25% of the vote.

    It urgently needs reform. In fact, that has been recognised for many years. It's just nobody has cared enough to do anything about it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    timmo said:

    It will only be in the higher density housing areas..i doubt remote farmhouses will get a dawn raid
    For sure. But a lot of the higher density areas - such as the holiday parks - are extremely difficult to deliver, especially early in the morning, and especially if the delivery is filtered.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    AndyJS said:

    The Scottish Tories would have to aim for around 35% and hope the LDs get 15% and support them in an informal way.

    That would make them more popular north of the border than in the UK as a whole.

    Is there any real prospect of that?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    timmo said:

    It will only be in the higher density housing areas..i doubt remote farmhouses will get a dawn raid
    And, coincidentally, they are the households least in need of one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    timmo said:

    Plenty
    Thank you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    IanB2 said:

    For sure. But a lot of the higher density areas - such as the holiday parks - are extremely difficult to deliver, especially early in the morning, and especially if the delivery is filtered.
    Do they get a vote in Westminster elections?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972

    I don't think this is entirely true.

    The LibDem leadership election was electronic and very slick. I only had to click a simple link sent to me by email and I'd voted. Just like that, as Tommy Cooper might say.

    The Tory leadership election, by contrast, was an exercise in C19th bungledom.

    Additionally, the LibDems have been very, very, on the ball with e-mobilisation. I've had a succession of targeted emails for B&R activity.

    They may not, yet, be as Machiavellian as Cummings with their social media targeting but in lots of other ways the LibDems are ahead of the game. If we could combine that macro-level messaging with the brilliant local ground work we'd be even more formidable.
    And with the nature of politics it is unlikely that the traditional ways, especially face to face, will disappear. Rather like radio, they will endure despite predictions of demise.

    Email communication is already less valuable than it used to be, in these days of spam, e-newsletters from every company you’ve ever dealt with, and so many jobs reduced to clearing emails. A political e-newsletter is really just a reminder you are there, with most of the content going unread. And how effective can online ads be, however micro-targeted, when more and more people have blockers and they have the same weaknesses as other forms of ad media?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting to see all the comments on insects earlier in this thread. Perhaps they could become a locust alternative to meat?

    Tried grasshoppers; you have to take the legs off, otherwise they get stuck in ones teeth.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Do they get a vote in Westminster elections?
    The holiday parks date back to an age when a week in a non-mobile home was a luxury for many Brits. The trade has long since disappeared and they are now permanent residential.

    Anecdotally it seemed to me to be where locals move when they can no longer cope with the long farmtrack up the hill to their home. The homes are very well looked after, lots of pets, gnomes, hanging baskets, water features, dedicated gardening. And a lot of BXP Ltd. supporters live on them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    ydoethur said:

    The system of voting used for Scotland and Wales was always a shambles, and also profoundly undemocratic. It means, for example, that Labour will always win most seats in Wales unless it dips below about 25% of the vote.

    It urgently needs reform. In fact, that has been recognised for many years. It's just nobody has cared enough to do anything about it.
    Sorry, but I thought that AMS balanced out parties a bit more than FPTP. Didn't think it meant a built in Lab majority.
    Of course I'd prefer STV in multi-member constituencies; if it's manageable in RoI, then it ought to manageable in Wales.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    The holiday parks date back to an age when a week in a non-mobile home was a luxury for many Brits. The trade has long since disappeared and they are now permanent residential.

    Anecdotally it seemed to me to be where locals move when they can no longer cope with the long farmtrack up the hill to their home. The homes are very well looked after, lots of pets, gnomes, hanging baskets, water features, dedicated gardening. And a lot of BXP Ltd. supporters live on them.
    So they're retirement parks rather than holiday homes?

    Btw, NEW THREAD.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    ydoethur said:

    So they're retirement parks rather than holiday homes?

    Btw, NEW THREAD.
    Yes, but still often called Holiday Park. Presumably never renamed.

    NEW THREAD for sure.
  • I don't think this is entirely true.

    The LibDem leadership election was electronic and very slick. I only had to click a simple link sent to me by email and I'd voted. Just like that, as Tommy Cooper might say.

    The Tory leadership election, by contrast, was an exercise in C19th bungledom.

    Additionally, the LibDems have been very, very, on the ball with e-mobilisation. I've had a succession of targeted emails for B&R activity.

    They may not, yet, be as Machiavellian as Cummings with their social media targeting but in lots of other ways the LibDems are ahead of the game. If we could combine that macro-level messaging with the brilliant local ground work we'd be even more formidable.
    No, you are wrong about the Tory leadership election. There is something uncontrovertable about a paper ballot. There have been issues with double counting of members and that is being sorted at the moment. Internal Tory party votes are generally by secure email.

    I expect B&R to be lost though - the Tory party is useless at flooding activists and activism into by-elections, and as the LDs show it isn't that difficult. Nor, is there any immediate planning to sort it as all planning is towards the GE, whenever it is.

    However, should all that result in a stable Con gov't with a comfortable majority the whole mess of peacetime campaigning will be addressed, it has to be.
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