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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the swing in tomorrow’s by-election is in line with today’s

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  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    And certain seaweeds, but generally you’re right.
    You don’t need much meat or fish to supply the daily requirement, though.

    Fun fact, it’s quite abundant in herbivore faeces, too. Which explains why some animals eat a lot of shit.
    On that basis, President Trump's "Yes men" must be abundantly healthy :D:D:D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    And certain seaweeds, but generally you’re right.
    You don’t need much meat or fish to supply the daily requirement, though.

    Fun fact, it’s quite abundant in herbivore faeces, too. Which explains why some animals eat a lot of shit.
    Eggs also provide B12, as does diary. So only strict vegans (not veggies) need worry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    And certain seaweeds, but generally you’re right.
    You don’t need much meat or fish to supply the daily requirement, though.

    Fun fact, it’s quite abundant in herbivore faeces, too. Which explains why some animals eat a lot of shit.
    On that basis, President Trump's "Yes men" must be abundantly healthy :D:D:D
    A nice thought, but given his diet, probably not.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    Correct, but easily available synthetically now. Historically vegan cultures probably survived due to insect contamination!
    :smiley: That is rather ironic...
    Foxy said:

    Insects are probably the best protein source, but not my favourite!

    Eating flies is not high on my list :dizzy:
    You can train effectively for our future insectivorous existence by simply riding a bicycle round the reservoir. Non-optional insect eating guaranteed.

    On topic, 5-1 on a party just four points behind (UNS klaxon notwithstanding) is still value, right?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    Correct, but easily available synthetically now. Historically vegan cultures probably survived due to insect contamination!

    Insects are probably the best protein source, but not my favourite!
    IIRC Sainsbury's tried selling insects recently! Maybe it was a meat substitute for a No Deal Brexit?! Not sure if they still do. Maybe with No Deal on the table - Insects will be served on it!
    I'm not convinced we'll ever get the bug for that tbh.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know whether or not they start counting the votes at 10pm tomorrow in Brecon & Radnorshire?

    No.

    But I did google the local council and found that one of the polling stations only has 14 voters, the next one up has a massive 17.

    The Great British democracy in action!

    So some poor sods will be manning a polling station for 15 hours and probably seeing just 5 voters! (Unless they all did PVs!)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    If they don't get the message he's going to stand in front of a stack of physical cash, point to it, and then mime 'no deal'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    Correct, but easily available synthetically now. Historically vegan cultures probably survived due to insect contamination!

    Insects are probably the best protein source, but not my favourite!
    IIRC Sainsbury's tried selling insects recently! Maybe it was a meat substitute for a No Deal Brexit?! Not sure if they still do. Maybe with No Deal on the table - Insects will be served on it!
    I'm not convinced we'll ever get the bug for that tbh.
    Weevil have to develop the taste for them slowly.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Am I being dim? How can he allocate a total of £4.1bn for this YEAR when No Deal is supposed to happen in a few WEEKS?

    Or is he budgetting 8 / 52 * 4.1bn = £630m
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited July 2019
    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    Correct, but easily available synthetically now. Historically vegan cultures probably survived due to insect contamination!

    Insects are probably the best protein source, but not my favourite!
    IIRC Sainsbury's tried selling insects recently! Maybe it was a meat substitute for a No Deal Brexit?! Not sure if they still do. Maybe with No Deal on the table - Insects will be served on it!
    I'm not convinced we'll ever get the bug for that tbh.
    Their customers decided to flea?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know whether or not they start counting the votes at 10pm tomorrow in Brecon & Radnorshire?

    No.

    But I did google the local council and found that one of the polling stations only has 14 voters, the next one up has a massive 17.

    The Great British democracy in action!

    So some poor sods will be manning a polling station for 15 hours and probably seeing just 5 voters! (Unless they all did PVs!)
    Googled and got - Poll clerk fees vary from one council to another, but you can expect at least £100 for the day. There are seemingly a lot poorer sods working far harder for far less.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    If they don't get the message he's going to stand in front of a stack of physical cash, point to it, and then mime 'no deal'.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eewBZ-jK3ls
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Hammond's war chest was only available if we avoided no deal, how can we spend that money on no deal prep!

    Javid should move on from Hammond and show he is responsible himself, not try and use the ex chancellors reputation to misrepresent his own actions.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know whether or not they start counting the votes at 10pm tomorrow in Brecon & Radnorshire?

    No.

    But I did google the local council and found that one of the polling stations only has 14 voters, the next one up has a massive 17.

    The Great British democracy in action!

    So some poor sods will be manning a polling station for 15 hours and probably seeing just 5 voters! (Unless they all did PVs!)
    It's relatively lucrative for so little work. Take a long book.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Tories at Becon can be laid at 9. I've not been checking all day, but I think that is one of the lower points.

    Just laid my TSE-tipped bet off a little.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    Correct, but easily available synthetically now. Historically vegan cultures probably survived due to insect contamination!

    Insects are probably the best protein source, but not my favourite!
    IIRC Sainsbury's tried selling insects recently! Maybe it was a meat substitute for a No Deal Brexit?! Not sure if they still do. Maybe with No Deal on the table - Insects will be served on it!
    I'm not convinced we'll ever get the bug for that tbh.
    Weevil have to develop the taste for them slowly.
    That pun was utter bolls.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    Correct, but easily available synthetically now. Historically vegan cultures probably survived due to insect contamination!

    Insects are probably the best protein source, but not my favourite!
    IIRC Sainsbury's tried selling insects recently! Maybe it was a meat substitute for a No Deal Brexit?! Not sure if they still do. Maybe with No Deal on the table - Insects will be served on it!
    I'm not convinced we'll ever get the bug for that tbh.
    Weevil have to develop the taste for them slowly.
    Are they any less appetising than snails or frogs? Not intended as a dig at the French.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Thanx. Interesting. Surely will be some trading options with those numbers?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Take it then
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited July 2019

    Hammond's war chest was only available if we avoided no deal, how can we spend that money on no deal prep!

    Javid should move on from Hammond and show he is responsible himself, not try and use the ex chancellors reputation to misrepresent his own actions.
    It's magic money tree time, stop worrying and live a little is their motto now. Pessimism is unpatriotic apparently.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know whether or not they start counting the votes at 10pm tomorrow in Brecon & Radnorshire?

    No.

    But I did google the local council and found that one of the polling stations only has 14 voters, the next one up has a massive 17.

    The Great British democracy in action!

    So some poor sods will be manning a polling station for 15 hours and probably seeing just 5 voters! (Unless they all did PVs!)
    Googled and got - Poll clerk fees vary from one council to another, but you can expect at least £100 for the day. There are seemingly a lot poorer sods working far harder for far less.
    £100 for 15 hours? That's below the minimum wage, so I presume you only do part of the day for that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Take it then
    Have taken all 4. Not confident of winning, mind.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Partly this is from other associated health behaviours, but a plant based diet is a healthy one both for the individual and for the planet.

    I thought that vitamin B12 was only obtainable from animal sources?
    Correct, but easily available synthetically now. Historically vegan cultures probably survived due to insect contamination!

    Insects are probably the best protein source, but not my favourite!
    IIRC Sainsbury's tried selling insects recently! Maybe it was a meat substitute for a No Deal Brexit?! Not sure if they still do. Maybe with No Deal on the table - Insects will be served on it!
    I'm not convinced we'll ever get the bug for that tbh.
    Weevil have to develop the taste for them slowly.
    Very good - reminds me of the Master and Commander joke about the lesser of two weevils.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    If they don't get the message he's going to stand in front of a stack of physical cash, point to it, and then mime 'no deal'.
    The Brexiteers are trying to re-enact the sheriff scene in Blazing Saddles, not realising it is a comedy. Incidentally it is hard to see this film being made nowadays!

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tTNJUjsNKVk
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Chelsea have the transfer ban, Man U simply aren't in the running, Spuds have err issues as highlighted by "Coach" Poch today - Arsenal at 80 might be the best bet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    We are in the money in Brecon.

    Conservatives
    £21.38

    Liberal Democrat
    £0.95
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited July 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know whether or not they start counting the votes at 10pm tomorrow in Brecon & Radnorshire?

    No.

    But I did google the local council and found that one of the polling stations only has 14 voters, the next one up has a massive 17.

    The Great British democracy in action!

    So some poor sods will be manning a polling station for 15 hours and probably seeing just 5 voters! (Unless they all did PVs!)
    Googled and got - Poll clerk fees vary from one council to another, but you can expect at least £100 for the day. There are seemingly a lot poorer sods working far harder for far less.
    £100 for 15 hours? That's below the minimum wage, so I presume you only do part of the day for that.
    Nope, there at 0600 until past 2200. Many people I know enjoy the experience, though most of them are presiding officers who get a bit more. The visiting officers had it even better but this latest time got no more than the presiding officers.

    Sounds awful to me, being at the count is way better - sure it is going through the night, but I'd probably be up anyway and get just as much money for less time, and the excitement of seeing the result (for locals anyway, the parliamentary is safe so no excitement).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    I love the phrase for the many not the few because while it is genuinely a pretty good slogan, it never seems to worry those behind it when the many vote for someone else, not them, or at least more of the many than vote for them do.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    So how do we judge Smithson tomorrow night? We have posts here from him saying the Torres will do well, badly or indifferently
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Pulpstar said:

    We are in the money in Brecon.

    Conservatives
    £21.38

    Liberal Democrat
    £0.95

    Not quite at your level:

    Conservatives
    £12.40

    Liberal Democrat (and also rans)
    £0.00

    Still no way of losing, and half a curry if the expenses guy gets back to his expense account.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Chelsea have the transfer ban, Man U simply aren't in the running, Spuds have err issues as highlighted by "Coach" Poch today - Arsenal at 80 might be the best bet.
    Arsenal are not a happy bunch.

    Never been a better year to break into the top 6. I think the value is in the teams like Leicester, Watford and Wolves to make Europe.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Take it then
    Have taken all 4. Not confident of winning, mind.
    Only a fool is ever confident of winning a bet. Good luck.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Enough for one day.

    Goodnight all
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Pulpstar said:

    We are in the money in Brecon.

    Conservatives
    £21.38

    Liberal Democrat
    £0.95

    Yes, I have greened out. +0.95 on the LDs, +£50 on Tories and the field.

    L D's were ridiculously short but will win imo, probably fairly comfortably.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    kle4 said:

    I love the phrase for the many not the few because while it is genuinely a pretty good slogan, it never seems to worry those behind it when the many vote for someone else, not them, or at least more of the many than vote for them do.
    Or that it was a Blair slogan.

    Looking at Williamson's twitter feed, I detect someone who thinks, or has been given to believe, it is only a matter of time before he is back.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    TGOHF said:
    And this 20 years after Devolution,

    Socialism at work...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    So how do we judge Smithson tomorrow night? We have posts here from him saying the Torres will do well, badly or indifferently

    Praise his genius of course!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Chelsea have the transfer ban, Man U simply aren't in the running, Spuds have err issues as highlighted by "Coach" Poch today - Arsenal at 80 might be the best bet.
    Arsenal are not a happy bunch.

    Never been a better year to break into the top 6. I think the value is in the teams like Leicester, Watford and Wolves to make Europe.
    You've missed the mighty Everton. Wolves have the Europa League curse this year.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    We are in the money in Brecon.

    Conservatives
    £21.38

    Liberal Democrat
    £0.95

    Drinks all round!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    kle4 said:

    I love the phrase for the many not the few because while it is genuinely a pretty good slogan, it never seems to worry those behind it when the many vote for someone else, not them, or at least more of the many than vote for them do.
    Or that it was a Blair slogan.

    Looking at Williamson's twitter feed, I detect someone who thinks, or has been given to believe, it is only a matter of time before he is back.
    Have to admit as horrible a man as he seems to be, at a glance his latest suspension did seem a bit procedurally strange, given it seemed to be a reaction to people not liking the decision to let him back in more than anything else. Perhaps there was more to it than that, but those who claim to want him gone will probably have to face up to the fact he will be back, and they will do nothing in response.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We are in the money in Brecon.

    Conservatives
    £21.38

    Liberal Democrat
    £0.95

    Yes, I have greened out. +0.95 on the LDs, +£50 on Tories and the field.

    L D's were ridiculously short but will win imo, probably fairly comfortably.
    I will be v happy to see a Liberal win, and lose my curry, in exchange for a second of TV news with Boris blustering about 'an antiquated result, a piddle of piffle of hungover business from a previous incumbent' etc etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Chelsea have the transfer ban, Man U simply aren't in the running, Spuds have err issues as highlighted by "Coach" Poch today - Arsenal at 80 might be the best bet.
    Arsenal are not a happy bunch.

    Never been a better year to break into the top 6. I think the value is in the teams like Leicester, Watford and Wolves to make Europe.
    You've missed the mighty Everton. Wolves have the Europa League curse this year.
    True. I think Leicester could do with a striker, but have a great defence and midfield. Vardy needs to stay fit, but seems to like Rogers style.

    Is the PB fantasy league running again? If so buy Youri Tielemanns. A bargain of the summer at €40 million.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455

    TGOHF said:
    And this 20 years after Devolution,

    Socialism at work...
    Or not at work, as the stats appear to show...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Now, here's a question.

    Sadly, I am too tired to stay up and watch:


    Moderates Faltered at Tuesday’s Debate. Will Joe Biden Do Better Tonight?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/us/politics/debate-moderate-progressive-democrats.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Pulpstar said:

    We are in the money in Brecon.

    Conservatives
    £21.38

    Liberal Democrat
    £0.95

    Drinks all round!
    Can of diet coke if it's a LD win.

    Steady on.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    Only true of Yougov - not other pollsters!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Chelsea have the transfer ban, Man U simply aren't in the running, Spuds have err issues as highlighted by "Coach" Poch today - Arsenal at 80 might be the best bet.
    Arsenal are not a happy bunch.

    Never been a better year to break into the top 6. I think the value is in the teams like Leicester, Watford and Wolves to make Europe.
    You've missed the mighty Everton. Wolves have the Europa League curse this year.
    True. I think Leicester could do with a striker, but have a great defence and midfield. Vardy needs to stay fit, but seems to like Rogers style.

    Is the PB fantasy league running again? If so buy Youri Tielemanns. A bargain of the summer at €40 million.
    Dunno. Just been looking at PL without the "Big 6". 10/3 Everton favourite, Leicester 7/2.
    Looking like we'll both be battling for 7th.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    And the Tories were polling much, much higher.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    And the Tories were polling much, much higher.
    The Tories are retaining 69% of their vote and winning 5% of 2017 Labour voters with YouGov, Labour are retaining only 54% of their vote and winning only 1% of 2017 Tory voters
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    I rather suspect we seeing something like one of those End Of Times cults who predict 31t October is the evening when it happens.

    On 1st November they reset their predictions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    By delivering Brexit by whatever means necessary
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

    Yes, the next administration in Scotland will probably be a Conservative one, although it won't be a majority government.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know whether or not they start counting the votes at 10pm tomorrow in Brecon & Radnorshire?

    No.

    But I did google the local council and found that one of the polling stations only has 14 voters, the next one up has a massive 17.

    The Great British democracy in action!
    It's a very rural constituency.

    At the 1985 by-election, the turnout was a whopping 79.4%, which was only slightly down from 80.1% at the 1983 general election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    I rather suspect we seeing something like one of those End Of Times cults who predict 31t October is the evening when it happens.

    On 1st November they reset their predictions.

    Yes. And they have done it before, remember. Quite why a date and time is so important, is beyond me. How about before the next election? I realise that is, in and of itself, a time, but promising not to go to the country before it gets done at least leaves a degree of flexibility.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    And the Tories were polling much, much higher.
    The Tories are retaining 69% of their vote and winning 5% of 2017 Labour voters with YouGov, Labour are retaining only 54% of their vote and winning only 1% of 2017 Tory voters
    This is purely on the basis of Yougov - other pollsters you choose to ignore.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    AndyJS said:

    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

    Yes, the next administration in Scotland will probably be a Conservative one, although it won't be a majority government.
    That is an extremely brave call!
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674

    I rather suspect we seeing something like one of those End Of Times cults who predict 31t October is the evening when it happens.

    On 1st November they reset their predictions.


    Quite. Well said.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Trump now deciding the Interest Rates no doubt
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    Is Southern Europe in permanent recession?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    marke09 said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know whether or not they start counting the votes at 10pm tomorrow in Brecon & Radnorshire?

    No one seems to know. All constituencies counted overnight at the last GE. Except the Northumberland ones. Which seems to have been due to tide times on Holy Island!
    yes SKY News are from there from midnight nothing showing on BBC schedules yet but probably news channel will be there
    Bring back This Week . . .
    Where has it gone? Have they finally stopped it?
    Yes, they killed it. Nobody was watching it, not even us. See also Film 2019
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    Is Southern Europe in permanent recession?
    Pretty much yes. Youth unemployment is 32% is Spain. The Greek economy is still approximately 25% smaller than it was in 2007. The Italian economy is much the same size that it was in 2001. That is 18 years ago....0% growth in 18 years!


    Feel free to find other descriptions.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

    Yes, the next administration in Scotland will probably be a Conservative one, although it won't be a majority government.
    That is an extremely brave call!
    It might take a few more elections. The SNP are bound to run out of steam eventually.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    And the Tories were polling much, much higher.
    The Tories are retaining 69% of their vote and winning 5% of 2017 Labour voters with YouGov, Labour are retaining only 54% of their vote and winning only 1% of 2017 Tory voters
    This is purely on the basis of Yougov - other pollsters you choose to ignore.
    Every pollster since Boris took over has the Tories ahead and Yougov along with Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    We've got a cup...... Yay!!!!!!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited July 2019

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    Is Southern Europe in permanent recession?
    Pretty much yes. Youth unemployment is 32% is Spain. The Greek economy is still approximately 25% smaller than it was in 2007. The Italian economy is much the same size that it was in 2001. That is 18 years ago....0% growth in 18 years!


    Feel free to find other descriptions.
    Growth this moment (UK 1.8%) Italy 0, Greece 1.4%, Portugal 1.8%, Spain 2.4%.
    Not great, but not recession. Let alone permanent.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

    Yes, the next administration in Scotland will probably be a Conservative one, although it won't be a majority government.
    That is an extremely brave call!
    I am a Scot. Unlike lazy English commentators I see it on the ground. The SNPs popularity is sharply on the wane. It partly explains why the Nats are in such a hurry...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Betting Post
    Just been perusing odds checker, re Premier League out rights. Some crazy prices there.
    Spurs at 22, Chelsea and United at 40, Arsenal at 80.
    Surely it isn't that much of a 2 horse race? 22-1 third favourite is very generous indeed.

    Chelsea have the transfer ban, Man U simply aren't in the running, Spuds have err issues as highlighted by "Coach" Poch today - Arsenal at 80 might be the best bet.
    Arsenal are not a happy bunch.

    Never been a better year to break into the top 6. I think the value is in the teams like Leicester, Watford and Wolves to make Europe.
    You've missed the mighty Everton. Wolves have the Europa League curse this year.
    True. I think Leicester could do with a striker, but have a great defence and midfield. Vardy needs to stay fit, but seems to like Rogers style.

    Is the PB fantasy league running again? If so buy Youri Tielemanns. A bargain of the summer at €40 million.
    Happy to set it up again. Will do so when back this weekend after celebrating our shiny trophy won byr beating Germans on penalties......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    edited July 2019

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

    Yes, the next administration in Scotland will probably be a Conservative one, although it won't be a majority government.
    That is an extremely brave call!
    I am a Scot. Unlike lazy English commentators I see it on the ground. The SNPs popularity is sharply on the wane. It partly explains why the Nats are in such a hurry...
    It is true the Scottish LDs would prop up Ruth Davidson even if the UK LDs would not prop up Boris Johnson, Scottish Labour is now 5th in some polls and out of it.

    Ruth Davidson to be First Minister of Scotland propped up by the LDs and Adam Price to be First Minister of Wales propped up by the Tories looks a good bet for 2021
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    I have always predicted that Brexit goes with a whimper, but is corrosive in the longer term to British prospects. Not just economically, though that matters, but also socially, culturally and politically. I am not one to predict apocalypse, though do concede that I am in the safest of safe jobs. There will always be ill people.

    People like Cummings are not conservatives, they are revolutionaries.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    edited July 2019
    OT I found the perfect inspirational slogan for brexit (slide #4):

    https://twitter.com/typicalVC/status/1156642886101819393/photo/4
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

    Yes, the next administration in Scotland will probably be a Conservative one, although it won't be a majority government.
    That is an extremely brave call!
    It might take a few more elections. The SNP are bound to run out of steam eventually.
    Ah. I see you are predicting next administration after the SNP. Thought you were predicting a Tory administration after the next Holyrood poll. Not quite such a bold prognostication.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    Which Eurozone country has grown employment the most since the creation of the Euro?

    Hint: it's a Southern European country
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    Which Eurozone country has grown employment the most since the creation of the Euro?

    Hint: it's a Southern European country
    Feel free to continue not engaging on the facts I set out.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    And the Tories were polling much, much higher.
    The Tories are retaining 69% of their vote and winning 5% of 2017 Labour voters with YouGov, Labour are retaining only 54% of their vote and winning only 1% of 2017 Tory voters
    This is purely on the basis of Yougov - other pollsters you choose to ignore.
    Every pollster since Boris took over has the Tories ahead and Yougov along with Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections
    But not in the last general election. Yougi#ov was the only pollster to underestimate Labour in the EU election - as well as overstating the Brexit Party by a wide margin.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    There really is a lot of nonsense spouted on this thread about scotland, usually repetitions of lazy English journalists like Adam Boulton. The Nats are not nearly as popular as they make out - the collapse of Labour is disguising the waning popularity of nationalism, despite Brexit.

    Yes, the next administration in Scotland will probably be a Conservative one, although it won't be a majority government.
    That is an extremely brave call!
    It might take a few more elections. The SNP are bound to run out of steam eventually.
    Ah. I see you are predicting next administration after the SNP. Thought you were predicting a Tory administration after the next Holyrood poll. Not quite such a bold prognostication.
    It'll be difficult for the Tories to find coalition partners. Maybe it would be a minority arrangement with an agreement from the LDs not to vote them down.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    I have always predicted that Brexit goes with a whimper, but is corrosive in the longer term to British prospects. Not just economically, though that matters, but also socially, culturally and politically. I am not one to predict apocalypse, though do concede that I am in the safest of safe jobs. There will always be ill people.

    People like Cummings are not conservatives, they are revolutionaries.
    It is the Reformation. It is a break with corrupt and increasingly illegitimate corporatism.

    In years to come it will be seen as farsighted. That is not how I initially saw it but I have changed my mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    OT I found the perfect inspirational slogan for brexit (slide #4):

    https://twitter.com/typicalVC/status/1156642886101819393/photo/4

    Is there a Madame Nhu in the EU27?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    Which Eurozone country has grown employment the most since the creation of the Euro?

    Hint: it's a Southern European country
    Spain?
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    Which Eurozone country has grown employment the most since the creation of the Euro?

    Hint: it's a Southern European country
    Spain?
    If 32% youth unemployment is success I dread to think what failure looks like.

    Plenty of Cafe Nero baristas in my area staffed by young Spanish graduates with first class degrees.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Scottish Tories would have to aim for around 35% and hope the LDs get 15% and support them in an informal way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    And the Tories were polling much, much higher.
    The Tories are retaining 69% of their vote and winning 5% of 2017 Labour voters with YouGov, Labour are retaining only 54% of their vote and winning only 1% of 2017 Tory voters
    This is purely on the basis of Yougov - other pollsters you choose to ignore.
    Every pollster since Boris took over has the Tories ahead and Yougov along with Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections
    But not in the last general election. Yougi#ov was the only pollster to underestimate Labour in the EU election - as well as overstating the Brexit Party by a wide margin.
    Yougov correctly had the LDs ahead of Labour in the European Parliament elections unlike most pollsters
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

    How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?
    Only 5% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories, true but with 21% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD, 11% backing the Greens and 7% voting Brexit Party Labour are only retaining 54% of their 2017 vote currently.

    With the Tories now retaining 69% of their 2017 vote thanks to Boris, there is a clear Labour to Tory swing overall

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
    It remains to be seen whether this changes come an election period. I suspect a lot of tactical voting.

    How do these figures compare to pre-2017?
    Even pre 2017 Labour were never polling as low as they are now
    And the Tories were polling much, much higher.
    The Tories are retaining 69% of their vote and winning 5% of 2017 Labour voters with YouGov, Labour are retaining only 54% of their vote and winning only 1% of 2017 Tory voters
    This is purely on the basis of Yougov - other pollsters you choose to ignore.
    Every pollster since Boris took over has the Tories ahead and Yougov along with Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections
    But not in the last general election. Yougi#ov was the only pollster to underestimate Labour in the EU election - as well as overstating the Brexit Party by a wide margin.
    Yougov correctly had the LDs ahead of Labour in the European Parliament elections unlike most pollsters
    Do you think Boris is expecting to have an election this year? I'm not sure.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doubling, trebling down on this disaster. How on earth are they all going to bluster their way out of this one?
    They are not. It will be No Deal Brexit on the 31st, though the initial shocks will be modest. In the longer term the end of the UK and quite likely the Conservative party. Cummings likes to break things.
    So the “initial shocks” will now be “modest”? More apocalyptic nonsense that displays little understanding of the direction of the EU nor its inherent weaknesses and contradictions.

    I voted ‘remain’ but have co e to change my view. It is immensely tiresome to see this debate framed endlessly in the context of the UK alone, and not of the broader contradictions or unsustainability of the current EU polity and model. Permanent recession in Southern Europe is not a prognosis for stability, regardless of Brexit. And that is what the EU and the euro portend.

    We are better off out.
    I have always predicted that Brexit goes with a whimper, but is corrosive in the longer term to British prospects. Not just economically, though that matters, but also socially, culturally and politically. I am not one to predict apocalypse, though do concede that I am in the safest of safe jobs. There will always be ill people.

    People like Cummings are not conservatives, they are revolutionaries.
    All the more reason to hope he succeeds.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    Kind of weird seeing so many of the ads in the debate bought out by lobbyists for one side of the debate.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Full-on veganism, on the other hand, must be bloody miserable.

    I don't find it miserable at all. In fact the last time I ate meat was when I was locked up in a secure mental health unit 15 years ago. I certainly wasn't happy then.

    What "full on veganism" is, is very time consuming as every meal has to be prepared from scratch. I don't think I could do it if I had a full time job.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    Aargh, fuck you CNN
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    Biden is weak on the attack.

    Kamala is extra shit at defence.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    MALARKY!

    ** huge applause **
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is it possible to watch this debate online from the UK?
This discussion has been closed.