There’s been a fair bit of speculation today following the latest YouGov/Times poll that all might not be lost for Tories in tomorrow’s by-election. Maybe but according to standard swing calculations BJohnson’s party needs more movement than this to fend off the yellow peril.
Comments
Edit: Or not.
Yes, the Lib Dems should still be favourites to win this.
If Labour win this it really would be an upset.
I do think that if the Lib Dems do manage to gain B & R they might have the chance of holding onto it come a GE. Lib Dems in opposition have a ratchet effect on seats whereby their opposition purity enables an incumbent to hold on in seats that might otherwise be lost. This seems to be the pattern that emerges from Lib Dem gains off Tories and Labour alike. Until a sea change wrests it away or a popular incumbent steps down i.e. Alan Beith in the Berwick upon Tweed seat.
There. What do you think of my HY impersonation 😀
Let us thank God for small mercies.
Or I could look a fool. But that's hardly the first time
I should have thrown in a few sub samples.
No incentive at all.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Perhaps, but this is likely a fairly narrow window of opportunity for PR.
My only problem with the new Lib Dem leader is that she is not managing to get much media attention. In the current circumstances, that is a crime.
Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?
Do you plan to impose direct rule on Scotland and exile Scottish nationalists? Sounds right up the Tories’ street.
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sergeant Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sergeant Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sergeant Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badassess! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
LD 45%
Con 37%
Brexit 11%
Lab 5.5%
UKIP 1.2%
Loony 0.3%
Turnout: 62%
I'd come up with some stunt to get in the news tomorrow.
We are in an “undeclared election campaign”.
Boris has hidden away from the people in Edinburgh, Brecon, and Belfast. Swinson has an open goal here.
More seriously, I warned you picking a Gog would play badly here...seems I was right.
LibDems, Con and Lab lose their deposits and Prime Minister Johnson invites the OMRLP to join in a formal election pact.
@Richard_Nabavi the new leader of the OMRLP declines the offer as he objects to a formal alliance with a minor party.
At the general election of 7th November the OMRLP gain 648 seats losing B&R to an Independent loony and Orkney & Shetland to the Viking National Party.
@TSE becomes Speaker of the House of Commons adorning the office with red shoes, a multi-coloured thong, powdered wig by "Smithson's Bespoke Hairpieces" and Versace silk shirt patterned with pineapple pizza motifs.
All is well in the world ....
- Boris, 2003.
And the Tories would either have to say they were seeking a mandate for no deal, which would lose them their remain supporters, or that they believed the EU would offer a better deal, which is scarcely credible and would lead to accusations of imminent betrayal from BXP etc and might well be ruled out publicly by the EU during the campaign.
Not bothering to level up for a few quid (by-elections are unpredictable) so a free £100 if they win and I lose nothing if they don’t.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/27/tories-petrified-jeremy-corbyn-rightwing-press-labour-party-conference
Glorious sentences abound. Choose your favourite.
"After his conference speech, the Mail is among those warning that the Labour leader is crushing a stale, fatigued Tory party"
"Corbynism is shifting the ground beneath the Tories’ feet and they sound knee-knocking scared"
"Labour will have a clear run whenever the next election comes."
Etc. Etc
Magnificent.
https://mirror.uncyc.org/wiki/Polly_Toynbee
Well worth a read.
Good night.
The problem is that neither are any of the other parties
For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.
I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...
I know it's half joking, but I half believe it. She is absurdly rich. Even richer is Guardian columnist Marina Hyde, who recently and casually phoned an architect friend of mine and said "oh, Zak, I've stupidly bought another house, do you think you could do it up?"
The latest house - one of several - is worth at least £5m.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!
https://twitter.com/dominos/status/1156621873574240257
Posted just to show how stupid your average American is..
In both cases, LD takes B&R. Flavible says it's 44% LD, 33% Con. Is Matt Singh coming out with another poll?
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/twa1h7mn6m/TimesResults_190730_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Corbyn had an horrific approval rating in the last Opinium in Scotland: worse than both Johnson and Farage. It was like -55 or something. I cannot remember any Labour leader ever getting such a poor rating among Scots.
Looks like folk have finally clicked.
I think it's inconceivable Corbyn will poll at 20%, lower than 30% would be truly astonishing and would be Labour's worst result for a very very long time.
I think during an election period, No Deal is going to put off a lot of liberal Tories who will vote Lib Dem and deny the Tories a majority.
The SNP will presumably win a landslide in Scotland.
Can't see the Tories winning the North, they are still despised (remember all that bluster in 2017?).
I just don't feel Johnson has a large enough coalition of voters to win a majority.
I did call 2017 correctly!
On Marx grave it says Enough philosophising, we can change this world. Corbyn the ditherer, captive of left wing British trade unionism and his whole lifetime of protest and prejudice rather than coalition building ain’t going to change no world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brecon_and_Radnorshire_by-election
A personal choice is fine.