Loads to back at 5.7 (or lay No at 1.21, which is better). What do we think here? It seems the momentum is building - half the Democratic caucus are now for it. But Pelosi is determined to hold off.
No the Conservatives were in freefall, heading to oblivion. Johnson or another PM candidate showing serious intent about Brexit and fast was the only way out of that dire situation. Even then unless there is some meaningful delivery by the deadline the Conservatives are finished as an election winning force.No bluster would cut it, as we all know the main Remain tactic all along is delay and delay, action and intent was the only way foward for the Conservatives.
Nevertheless I think Johnson will, when the crunch comes, agree an extension into 2020. And that although the ultras might scream blue murder they will not bring him down. I don't think this as much as I did a week ago, but I do still just about think it.
Where would the ultras go if not with Johnson? They have got their optimum Brexit supporting PM as I cannot see any other Brexiteer having support in the PCP to win the leadership in any challenge. I think Raab got 30 or so votes in the June contest, not, a platform to take the leadership....
Where would the ultras go if not with Johnson? They have got their optimum Brexit supporting PM as I cannot see any other Brexiteer having support in the PCP to win the leadership in any challenge. I think Raab got 30 or so votes in the June contest, not, a platform to take the leadership....
Exactly. I think Boris has done them over.
But if I suspect this, surely they suspect it too? In which case what is REALLY the plan?
No the Conservatives were in freefall, heading to oblivion. Johnson or another PM candidate showing serious intent about Brexit and fast was the only way out of that dire situation. Even then unless there is some meaningful delivery by the deadline the Conservatives are finished as an election winning force.No bluster would cut it, as we all know the main Remain tactic all along is delay and delay, action and intent was the only way foward for the Conservatives.
Nevertheless I think Johnson will, when the crunch comes, agree an extension into 2020. And that although the ultras might scream blue murder they will not bring him down. I don't think this as much as I did a week ago, but I do still just about think it.
Where would the ultras go if not with Johnson? They have got their optimum Brexit supporting PM as I cannot see any other Brexiteer having support in the PCP to win the leadership in any challenge. I think Raab got 30 or so votes in the June contest, not, a platform to take the leadership....
Isn't the expression "only Nixon could go to China" ? Only an ardent advocate for us leaving the EU could actually keep us in the EU. Perhaps this is Johnson's plan.
40% for the Tories seems too high as a prediction for B&R. They only got 48.6% at the general election.
I don't know. It was a 52% leave seat at the Referendum and Davies probably has some personal vote.
It's an interesting one. In the heyday of Lib Dem by-election wins, they were a bit of a blank slate, and people saw them as an easy protest whether or not the Lib Dems actually embraced their particular protest (Matthew Parris' tale of a voter supporting Shirley Williams in the SDP days because he wanted to bring back hanging and the birch). Nowadays, it's a more specific anti-Brexit protest and, whilst that's potent, it's not as all encompassing as "vote Lib Dem cos you don't like the way things are going". So I suspect a sufficient but not vast swing.
Loads to back at 5.7 (or lay No at 1.21, which is better). What do we think here? It seems the momentum is building - half the Democratic caucus are now for it. But Pelosi is determined to hold off.
No, I think that’s an accurate call of the activists’ mood. It is very difficult to call, and delivering/canvassing takes hugely longer there, with a good slice of the electorate impractical to reach at all.
I’m sorry that story relates to you in any way, however tangentially.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
No, I think that’s an accurate call of the activists’ mood. It is very difficult to call, and delivering/canvassing takes hugely longer there, with a good slice of the electorate impractical to reach at all.
In many ways that doesn't matter. B&R has a strong Lib Dem history so there will be good canvass data for the towns and villages. You do the switch analysis on that, and it's a good predictor as long as you have a decent sample.
But the activists won't be given this as it causes either complacency or despondency. The campaign tries to create a "too close to call" atmosphere regardless of whether it really is, so hardly surprising Lewis Goodall finds people "nervous". No activist asks for their money back if the "toss up" turns out to be a strong win.
I am delighted that the PB convention of naming PMs by their first initial followed by their surname with no space is being observed. BJohnson it shall be.
No the Conservatives were in freefall, heading to oblivion. Johnson or another PM candidate showing serious intent about Brexit and fast was the only way out of that dire situation. Even then unless there is some meaningful delivery by the deadline the Conservatives are finished as an election winning force.No bluster would cut it, as we all know the main Remain tactic all along is delay and delay, action and intent was the only way foward for the Conservatives.
Nevertheless I think Johnson will, when the crunch comes, agree an extension into 2020. And that although the ultras might scream blue murder they will not bring him down. I don't think this as much as I did a week ago, but I do still just about think it.
Where would the ultras go if not with Johnson? They have got their optimum Brexit supporting PM as I cannot see any other Brexiteer having support in the PCP to win the leadership in any challenge. I think Raab got 30 or so votes in the June contest, not, a platform to take the leadership....
The logic argues that Johnson could extend, extend and eventually call a further public vote although another politically plausible end state arising from that public vote might be 48% in 52% out, i.e. Norway.
But how...? As Johnson's idol Churchill said [I've replaced the one original word by two modern ones]:
'It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is [the UK] national interest.'
Waste an hour doing something ridiculous to gain an hour is stupid, if you enjoy running fair enough if you enjoy tapping your nose it’s too late anyway.
Take your point.
However, my view is that whilst tapping your nose is certainly not enjoyable, neither is it a particularly unpleasant thing to do. And if you were doing it for 3 hours a day - as I would be in the scenario imagined - it would become a routine activity. You'd be on auto-pilot with it, and doing other things at the same time. It would be like whistling as you go around Tesco. With plenty of fellow shoppers doing the same. Quite a nice thought in many ways.
I wouldn't see much point in voting for BXP in this by election. No point at all in fact. I think the Tories will squeeze their vote very successfully.
Incidentally, I remember the late Paddy Ashdown on the eve of the 1993 Newbury by-election issuing a passionate call to arms to the "battle royale" in a too-close-to-call vote.
The 1992 General Election majority in that one was similar to B&R - about 19%. The Lib Dems won a 20k majority on nearly two-thirds of the vote in the by-election.
This one will be nowhere near that sort of blow-out - The Tories lead in the national polls (albeit with a low % historically), Johnson will get some bounce, and some of the protest vote will go to the Brexit Party. I'm just mentioning it as an example of the expectations management around these things.
I wouldn't see much point in voting for BXP in this by election. No point at all in fact. I think the Tories will squeeze their vote very successfully.
The point would surely be "I'll vote for you when we get Brexit, and not before." There are plenty of people who think Johnson will sell them out at the first opportunity unless they keep his feet to the fire. And, although I disagree with their position on Brexit, I see their point on Johnson.
Thinking Fast & Slow by Daniel Kahneman should be mandatory reading at school, we would all have a much better understanding of how the mind actually works including its many faults and biases.
I am delighted that the PB convention of naming PMs by their first initial followed by their surname with no space is being observed. BJohnson it shall be.
I like Cameron Minor, which is Johnson Major's name for him. Cameron has an older brother who was at the school iirc.
I wouldn't see much point in voting for BXP in this by election. No point at all in fact. I think the Tories will squeeze their vote very successfully.
The point would surely be "I'll vote for you when we get Brexit, and not before." There are plenty of people who think Johnson will sell them out at the first opportunity unless they keep his feet to the fire. And, although I disagree with their position on Brexit, I see their point on Johnson.
I see what you're saying, but I don't see many Brexit party supporters thinking that way (postal votes pre Boris excepted). Boris and his new Government may as well be a Brexit party wishlist. And the parliamentary arithmetic in favour of Brexit is on a knife edge.
I wouldn't see much point in voting for BXP in this by election. No point at all in fact. I think the Tories will squeeze their vote very successfully.
The point would surely be "I'll vote for you when we get Brexit, and not before." There are plenty of people who think Johnson will sell them out at the first opportunity unless they keep his feet to the fire. And, although I disagree with their position on Brexit, I see their point on Johnson.
I see what you're saying, but I don't see many Brexit party supporters thinking that way (postal votes pre Boris excepted). Boris and his new Government may as well be a Brexit party wishlist. And the parliamentary arithmetic in favour of Brexit is on a knife edge.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think they'll score a good result tomorrow. Just there is a logic there that may well give them double figures of % (plus postal votes would have been returned a while ago by and large).
Apparently Ladbrokes are offering 10/1 on a turnout of more than 60% tomorrow in Brecon & Radnor. I think that's a value bet.
A typical GE there is around 70%, although last time was slightly higher. Yes, there’s been a lot of campaigning there, but there is also a lot of apathy and disillusion.
I’m sorry that story relates to you in any way, however tangentially.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
In the UK, the inquest would fail to reach a verdict and the officers would all get promotion.
No, I think that’s an accurate call of the activists’ mood. It is very difficult to call, and delivering/canvassing takes hugely longer there, with a good slice of the electorate impractical to reach at all.
In many ways that doesn't matter. B&R has a strong Lib Dem history so there will be good canvass data for the towns and villages. You do the switch analysis on that, and it's a good predictor as long as you have a decent sample.
But the activists won't be given this as it causes either complacency or despondency. The campaign tries to create a "too close to call" atmosphere regardless of whether it really is, so hardly surprising Lewis Goodall finds people "nervous". No activist asks for their money back if the "toss up" turns out to be a strong win.
Yes. Nevertheless I have been to campaigns where the atmosphere is such that it’s obvious to an experienced campaigner that a big win is in prospect, whatever the HQ is saying.
The LDs have the advantage that their data is likely to be more reliable, although they have probably lost some leavers and will need to target the Labour vote as well. One disadvantage the Tories have is that there will have been a lot more churn in their support, taking in leavers from the opposition parties, shedding remainers to the LDs and a lot of traffic between them and UKIP/BXP. The historical data the Tories have as incumbents will be of dubious value.
No, I think that’s an accurate call of the activists’ mood. It is very difficult to call, and delivering/canvassing takes hugely longer there, with a good slice of the electorate impractical to reach at all.
In many ways that doesn't matter. B&R has a strong Lib Dem history so there will be good canvass data for the towns and villages. You do the switch analysis on that, and it's a good predictor as long as you have a decent sample.
But the activists won't be given this as it causes either complacency or despondency. The campaign tries to create a "too close to call" atmosphere regardless of whether it really is, so hardly surprising Lewis Goodall finds people "nervous". No activist asks for their money back if the "toss up" turns out to be a strong win.
Yes. Nevertheless I have been to campaigns where the atmosphere is such that it’s obvious to an experienced campaigner that a big win is in prospect, whatever the HQ is saying.
The LDs have the advantage that their data is likely to be more reliable, although they have probably lost some leavers and will need to target the Labour vote as well. One disadvantage the Tories have is that there will have been a lot more churn in their support, taking in leavers from the opposition parties, shedding remainers to the LDs and a lot of traffic between them and UKIP/BXP. The historical data the Tories have as incumbents will be of dubious value.
Thinking Fast & Slow by Daniel Kahneman should be mandatory reading at school, we would all have a much better understanding of how the mind actually works including its many faults and biases.
The undoing project is an interesting read about how kahneman and Tversky came up with a lot of the ideas summarized in thinking fast and slow.
I’m sorry that story relates to you in any way, however tangentially.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
In the UK, the inquest would fail to reach a verdict and the officers would all get promotion.
Gosh, I sound cynical, don't I?
You do. I hope you’re wrong.
Whatever the answer, that video has now gone completely viral, and I think those officers will now face justice.
Also worth noting that this video only emerged after some heroically dogged and persistent journalism at the Dallas Morning News. Hat tip to that hack.
I’m sorry that story relates to you in any way, however tangentially.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
In the UK, the inquest would fail to reach a verdict and the officers would all get promotion.
Gosh, I sound cynical, don't I?
You do. I hope you’re wrong.
Whatever the answer, that video has now gone completely viral, and I think those officers will now face justice.
Also worth noting that this video only emerged after some heroically dogged and persistent journalism at the Dallas Morning News. Hat tip to that hack.
Really?
I was thinking of a current very senior officer of a very large police force whose officers made a very similar mistake fourteen years ago.
Thinking Fast & Slow by Daniel Kahneman should be mandatory reading at school, we would all have a much better understanding of how the mind actually works including its many faults and biases.
The undoing project is an interesting read about how kahneman and Tversky came up with a lot of the ideas summarized in thinking fast and slow.
Agreed, if I am going to read non fiction Michael Lewis is as good an author as any.
I’m sorry that story relates to you in any way, however tangentially.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
In the UK, the inquest would fail to reach a verdict and the officers would all get promotion.
Gosh, I sound cynical, don't I?
You do. I hope you’re wrong.
Whatever the answer, that video has now gone completely viral, and I think those officers will now face justice.
Also worth noting that this video only emerged after some heroically dogged and persistent journalism at the Dallas Morning News. Hat tip to that hack.
Really?
I was thinking of a current very senior officer of a very large police force whose officers made a very similar mistake fourteen years ago.
You probably know more than me. Perhaps I am naive.
Perhaps the worst aspect of this grotesque crime is the cover-up. How could any DA look at that footage and decide there was no case to answer!?? And then they hide the video from the public for three long years...
I’m sorry that story relates to you in any way, however tangentially.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
In the UK, the inquest would fail to reach a verdict and the officers would all get promotion.
Gosh, I sound cynical, don't I?
You do. I hope you’re wrong.
Whatever the answer, that video has now gone completely viral, and I think those officers will now face justice.
Also worth noting that this video only emerged after some heroically dogged and persistent journalism at the Dallas Morning News. Hat tip to that hack.
Really?
I was thinking of a current very senior officer of a very large police force whose officers made a very similar mistake fourteen years ago.
You probably know more than me. Perhaps I am naive.
Perhaps the worst aspect of this grotesque crime is the cover-up. How could any DA look at that footage and decide there was no case to answer!?? And then they hide the video from the public for three long years...
"How could any DA look at that footage and decide there was no case to answer!??"
As of now pound dollar is 1.22 up 0.65 and pound euro is 1.10 up 0.84%
Maybe the markets expect a deal (or maybe not) who knows !!!!
Or just the usual rebound the day after a big move.
Possibly
I do wonder if this is building up to a crescendo in October where mps will get almost any deal over the line
I am imagining the October version of Letwin Boles could be the MPs voting for Mays WA and the govt against it!
With a thick enough layer of lipstick, there's a chance Johnson could get the WA pig over the line with help of terrified Labour MPs who know it's an election otherwise.
I’m sorry that story relates to you in any way, however tangentially.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
In the UK, the inquest would fail to reach a verdict and the officers would all get promotion.
Gosh, I sound cynical, don't I?
You do. I hope you’re wrong.
Whatever the answer, that video has now gone completely viral, and I think those officers will now face justice.
Also worth noting that this video only emerged after some heroically dogged and persistent journalism at the Dallas Morning News. Hat tip to that hack.
Really?
I was thinking of a current very senior officer of a very large police force whose officers made a very similar mistake fourteen years ago.
You probably know more than me. Perhaps I am naive.
Perhaps the worst aspect of this grotesque crime is the cover-up. How could any DA look at that footage and decide there was no case to answer!?? And then they hide the video from the public for three long years...
So was the one I am thinking of. The testimony of the police officers consistently contradicted that of every bystander. That is presumably why the jury at the inquest refused to return a verdict despite being practically ordered by the coroner to find lawful killing. Their responses to a questionnaire the coroner gave them as good as accused the police of perjury. Yet nobody was ever sanctioned. Indeed at least one of them was promoted to very high office.
I'm wrong on a lot of stuff but I was consistently correct about Theresa May being an absolutely crap choice of leader.
I'm not saying she's a rubbish politician but leader!? No way.
Ironically, she probably had the most consistently high polling the Tories have seen in decades.
There's an interesting counterfactual where she had become the modernising Tory leader and then PM in 2010 instead of Cameron. I think she was more suited to the job than him, despite her limitations.
I'm wrong on a lot of stuff but I was consistently correct about Theresa May being an absolutely crap choice of leader.
I'm not saying she's a rubbish politician but leader!? No way.
Ironically, she probably had the most consistently high polling the Tories have seen in decades.
I think the difference re Cummings and Timothy is that the former has run and won a national election campaign. The latter merely had helped may avoid career ending screw ups in the home office and convinced quite a few media types he was some sort of sage. When he actually had to deliver votes it became clear he was far better at understanding imaginary voters than actual ones and had totally misunderstood the way younger, liberal Britain would kick back against the notion they were no longer relevant.
Which is not to say Cummings is some sort of genius, or has mastery over voters. Times change. Voters have a funny habbit of misbehaving. But there is some justification to the idea he knows what he's doing rather than a load of meaningless froth about Joseph Chamberlain.
Dowd of NYT on Williamson (in the debate). Not sure if she is joking or not here:
"Maureen Dowd (10/10) — Sneer if you will, but a call for a little spiritual healing is in order in the unspiritual, racist, hate-filled era of Donald Trump. As Jaboukie Young-White, a “Daily Show” correspondent, tweeted, Williamson is about to be the first president to take the oath of office with her hand on a stack of Tarot cards. Debates are about the visceral, and Williamson has that down. Not since Admiral James Stockdale, a fan of the Stoic philosophers, opened the vice presidential debate in 1992 by asking “Who am I, why am I here?” has there been a line as arresting as this one by the philosopher of love: “If you think any of this wonkiness is going to deal with this dark psychic force of the collectivized hatred that this president is bringing up in this country, then I’m afraid that the Democrats are going to see some very dark days.”
It's not on yet, but Farage and his crew are setting the scene nicely, or, to be more accurate, Boris and his crew are doing a fantastic job setting themselves up for it.
So Sterling is up 0.78% today against the Euro, roughly twice what it fell yesterday. I would obviously link to the BBC headlines about this but, weirdly, they are hard to find.
Single digits for Con hold now. None of this 26 or 34 monkey business.
I don’t think it’s as much borisbounce as poor libdem campaign. It’s clear what they have been saying high profile nationally about brexit, to tailor to something less bollocksy for constituency takes the P out the voters, they can see how false it sounds. But doesn’t take as much P as trying to impose a gog on them.
The British press going after Meghan Markle is the least surprising thing that has ever happened.
The Royal family now appeals to all viewpoints, from the Brexit Party and Tories with the Queen and Prince Philip, to Greens with Prince Charles and left liberal wokes with Meghan and now it seems Harry too.
Wills and Kate meanwhile can just stand above it all and adjust to the mood of the day
Can't for the life of me see why it has gone so wrong for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.
CON up again? at the heady heights of 32%? someone pass the smelling salts...
Con/TBP vote share has been fixed at 45% for some while. It gets interesting when Boris has to decided which segment he has to disappoint, assuming the choice isn't made for him.
So Sterling is up 0.78% today against the Euro, roughly twice what it fell yesterday. I would obviously link to the BBC headlines about this but, weirdly, they are hard to find.
I suppose you know that the press reports on GBP were related more to the fall on Monday and the fact that it was one of the worst performing currencies YTD rather than the relatively small fall on Tuesday? Currently EURGBP is more or less flat over the last 2 days. I suspect the weakness of GBP will be a big issue for people on holiday so entirely reasonable of BBC to report it. You will have £100mn to spaff up the wall on pro Brexit propaganda soon enough, you can't complain about the media reporting a few inconvenient truths in the meantime.
I am delighted that the PB convention of naming PMs by their first initial followed by their surname with no space is being observed. BJohnson it shall be.
Should it not be AJohnson? Or perhaps ABDPJohnson?
I am delighted that the PB convention of naming PMs by their first initial followed by their surname with no space is being observed. BJohnson it shall be.
Should it not be AJohnson? Or perhaps ABDPJohnson?
Nah. It will be Boris or Bojo because they are more recognizable and, more importantly, shorter
The Royal family now appeals to all viewpoints, from the Brexit Party and Tories with the Queen and Prince Philip, to Greens with Prince Charles and left liberal wokes with Meghan and now it seems Harry too.
Wills and Kate meanwhile can just stand above it all and adjust to the mood of the day
William and Kate are vacuous centrists?
Not sure that's fair.
William is a One Nation Conservative, I sense. Doubt you could put a cigarette paper between him and Chris Leslie.
As for Kate, appearances can deceive. She could well be a Bennite of the old school Left.
In my experience businesses will spend as little time/money as possible as late as possible in response to events that appear outside those they have budgeted for. Every company being asked to prepare for No Deal will have to reallocate resources that were earmarked for other things. They will be very reluctant to do it. The smaller the business, the bigger the issue this will be.
Of course, things are further complicated by the very mixed messages coming from government. Is No Deal the million to one chance the PM says it is, or is it the working assumption Michael Gove says it is? Again, the smaller you are, the more of an issue this is.
"The fact that Corbyn-enablers like Cooper still trot out the ‘broad church’ line is telling. Even after all that has happened, she still sees a place in Labour for the far-left. As such, she is illustrative of ‘moderate’ MPs who, even now, don’t comprehend the enormity of what has happened to their party. They think the issue can be solved by wresting back control of the leadership, taking a stance on Brexit and kicking out a few token Jew-haters. They would think nothing of allowing the frontbench cranks to return to the backbenches, and might even let a few of them stay put.
That’s the other problem with those who say Labour needs to be a broad church to succeed: they still want it to succeed. But Labour must not succeed; it must pay the price for Corbyn and for how his party has treated British Jews. That price ought to be the end of the Labour party and of the political career of MPs like Yvette Cooper, who by their sentimentality, their cowardice and their inaction have been scant more than Corbyn’s little helpers.""
An interesting thread. Basically Christopher Hope is implying that Cummings and/or Boris would try to provoke a VoNC timed so that we'd crash out of the EU in chaos during the election period, so parliament couldn't stop it.
Now, I don't think that would work. Think of the dynamics: parliament has 14 days during which it can in theory pass a vote of confidence in another PM. I don't actually think it would do that, because it's too hard to come up with a candidate whom both Labour and dissident Tories could support. But it wouldn't need to; there is another, and better route. It would require a super-quick Act of Parliament, to be facilitated with the connivance of the Speaker, to appoint someone else as empowered to ask for an Article 50 Extension (or even revocation, if push came to shove). In this scenario no new government would be formed in the 14-period, so an election would follow. The EU would surely agree to the extension given that there would be a GE coming.
Of course, the election might be won by Boris and the ultras, in which case we'd crash out at the end of the extended period, But it might not; there would be one hell of a kickback against any attempt to crash us out using in this way.
The British press going after Meghan Markle is the least surprising thing that has ever happened.
Well her head does seem to be full of the most trite woke nonsense.
Except that it was Harry of course. But, he's a proper Royal, and a veteran, so obviously his wife must be mysteriously controlling him and his views. Cos they couldn't be his.
Comments
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.148087688
https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1156539184292777989?s=20
But if I suspect this, surely they suspect it too? In which case what is REALLY the plan?
And to this I have no answer which satisfies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-49177145
It's an interesting one. In the heyday of Lib Dem by-election wins, they were a bit of a blank slate, and people saw them as an easy protest whether or not the Lib Dems actually embraced their particular protest (Matthew Parris' tale of a voter supporting Shirley Williams in the SDP days because he wanted to bring back hanging and the birch). Nowadays, it's a more specific anti-Brexit protest and, whilst that's potent, it's not as all encompassing as "vote Lib Dem cos you don't like the way things are going". So I suspect a sufficient but not vast swing.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-by-year-end-2019
It's a bit like the way pilots argued strongly against cockpit voice recorders - but now they're utterly accepted as being good.
Looking at that horrible video, I’m trying to decide if I have any sympathy for the police. They clearly didn’t want to kill him, but their negligence, heartlessness and incompetence killed him anyway. This is surely a manslaughter charge (in the UK).
And yet it seems all charges were dismissed and the crime covered up. Until now. Shocking.
But the activists won't be given this as it causes either complacency or despondency. The campaign tries to create a "too close to call" atmosphere regardless of whether it really is, so hardly surprising Lewis Goodall finds people "nervous". No activist asks for their money back if the "toss up" turns out to be a strong win.
But how...? As Johnson's idol Churchill said [I've replaced the one original word by two modern ones]:
'It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is [the UK] national interest.'
Take your point.
However, my view is that whilst tapping your nose is certainly not enjoyable, neither is it a particularly unpleasant thing to do. And if you were doing it for 3 hours a day - as I would be in the scenario imagined - it would become a routine activity. You'd be on auto-pilot with it, and doing other things at the same time. It would be like whistling as you go around Tesco. With plenty of fellow shoppers doing the same. Quite a nice thought in many ways.
Anyone know when the result is due to be announced ?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7306037/Drug-dealers-27-000-Rolex-designer-trainers-auctioned-police.html
The 1992 General Election majority in that one was similar to B&R - about 19%. The Lib Dems won a 20k majority on nearly two-thirds of the vote in the by-election.
This one will be nowhere near that sort of blow-out - The Tories lead in the national polls (albeit with a low % historically), Johnson will get some bounce, and some of the protest vote will go to the Brexit Party. I'm just mentioning it as an example of the expectations management around these things.
But yes, maybe so. Maybe as a genuine True Believer he is not going along with the scam. He really does value 'Clean' Brexit above everything.
Single digits for Con hold now. None of this 26 or 34 monkey business.
Maybe the markets expect a deal (or maybe not) who knows !!!!
A typical GE there is around 70%, although last time was slightly higher. Yes, there’s been a lot of campaigning there, but there is also a lot of apathy and disillusion.
Gosh, I sound cynical, don't I?
I do wonder if this is building up to a crescendo in October where mps will get almost any deal over the line
I'm not saying she's a rubbish politician but leader!? No way.
Ironically, she probably had the most consistently high polling the Tories have seen in decades.
The LDs have the advantage that their data is likely to be more reliable, although they have probably lost some leavers and will need to target the Labour vote as well. One disadvantage the Tories have is that there will have been a lot more churn in their support, taking in leavers from the opposition parties, shedding remainers to the LDs and a lot of traffic between them and UKIP/BXP. The historical data the Tories have as incumbents will be of dubious value.
Whatever the answer, that video has now gone completely viral, and I think those officers will now face justice.
Also worth noting that this video only emerged after some heroically dogged and persistent journalism at the Dallas Morning News. Hat tip to that hack.
I was thinking of a current very senior officer of a very large police force whose officers made a very similar mistake fourteen years ago.
Perhaps the worst aspect of this grotesque crime is the cover-up. How could any DA look at that footage and decide there was no case to answer!?? And then they hide the video from the public for three long years...
Three words: DAs are elected.
Small chance, of course.
I'm afraid we can't claim moral superiority.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1156594690294202368
Which is not to say Cummings is some sort of genius, or has mastery over voters. Times change. Voters have a funny habbit of misbehaving. But there is some justification to the idea he knows what he's doing rather than a load of meaningless froth about Joseph Chamberlain.
"Maureen Dowd (10/10) — Sneer if you will, but a call for a little spiritual healing is in order in the unspiritual, racist, hate-filled era of Donald Trump. As Jaboukie Young-White, a “Daily Show” correspondent, tweeted, Williamson is about to be the first president to take the oath of office with her hand on a stack of Tarot cards. Debates are about the visceral, and Williamson has that down. Not since Admiral James Stockdale, a fan of the Stoic philosophers, opened the vice presidential debate in 1992 by asking “Who am I, why am I here?” has there been a line as arresting as this one by the philosopher of love: “If you think any of this wonkiness is going to deal with this dark psychic force of the collectivized hatred that this president is bringing up in this country, then I’m afraid that the Democrats are going to see some very dark days.”
The pundits gave it to Warren btw.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/07/31/opinion/debate-winners-losers.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
If October 31st arrives though and we are still in the EU though it may be a different story
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1156595970504876032
Wills and Kate meanwhile can just stand above it all and adjust to the mood of the day
I suspect the weakness of GBP will be a big issue for people on holiday so entirely reasonable of BBC to report it. You will have £100mn to spaff up the wall on pro Brexit propaganda soon enough, you can't complain about the media reporting a few inconvenient truths in the meantime.
Prepared for an event that was absolutely definitely happening, then didn't.
Has no confidence in the people claiming it will absolutely definitely happen this time.
Not sure that's fair.
William is a One Nation Conservative, I sense. Doubt you could put a cigarette paper between him and Chris Leslie.
As for Kate, appearances can deceive. She could well be a Bennite of the old school Left.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/05/30/majority-now-support-liberalising-policy-towards-c
Of course, things are further complicated by the very mixed messages coming from government. Is No Deal the million to one chance the PM says it is, or is it the working assumption Michael Gove says it is? Again, the smaller you are, the more of an issue this is.
"The fact that Corbyn-enablers like Cooper still trot out the ‘broad church’ line is telling. Even after all that has happened, she still sees a place in Labour for the far-left. As such, she is illustrative of ‘moderate’ MPs who, even now, don’t comprehend the enormity of what has happened to their party. They think the issue can be solved by wresting back control of the leadership, taking a stance on Brexit and kicking out a few token Jew-haters. They would think nothing of allowing the frontbench cranks to return to the backbenches, and might even let a few of them stay put.
That’s the other problem with those who say Labour needs to be a broad church to succeed: they still want it to succeed. But Labour must not succeed; it must pay the price for Corbyn and for how his party has treated British Jews. That price ought to be the end of the Labour party and of the political career of MPs like Yvette Cooper, who by their sentimentality, their cowardice and their inaction have been scant more than Corbyn’s little helpers.""
Now, I don't think that would work. Think of the dynamics: parliament has 14 days during which it can in theory pass a vote of confidence in another PM. I don't actually think it would do that, because it's too hard to come up with a candidate whom both Labour and dissident Tories could support. But it wouldn't need to; there is another, and better route. It would require a super-quick Act of Parliament, to be facilitated with the connivance of the Speaker, to appoint someone else as empowered to ask for an Article 50 Extension (or even revocation, if push came to shove). In this scenario no new government would be formed in the 14-period, so an election would follow. The EU would surely agree to the extension given that there would be a GE coming.
Of course, the election might be won by Boris and the ultras, in which case we'd crash out at the end of the extended period, But it might not; there would be one hell of a kickback against any attempt to crash us out using in this way.