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SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week on from Johnson being called to the Palace and so far so good

It is just a week ago that TMay went to the Palace to step down as PM and for the new Tory leader, BJohnson, to be invited to succeed her.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    edited July 2019
    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    And not paid the slightest attention to the vagaries of this particular constituency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited July 2019
    Interesting that while the Tories now lead in all those polls regardless of pollster, the LDs lead Labour in one of them too and are just 1 to 3 points behind Labour in the other Yougov polls.

    Yougov was one of the few pollsters to have the LDs ahead of Labour in the European Parliament elections
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    Gordon Brown held on to two seats in by elections early in his Premiership, will Boris Johnson be worse than Brown?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    In terms of the B & C by-election I reflected on the Thatcher/Major transition which saw by-elections in which the Tories were defeated. The timing was probably different in that a by-election was not fought within 10 days of a new PM. But even safe seats were lost from the end of 1990 until the end of 1991. When Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair on the other hand at least one Labour safe seat saw a by-election in which Labour comfortably won. Neither changeover and the ensuing by-elections was a very accurate portent of future electoral performance...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    ydoethur said:

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    And not paid the slightest attention to the vagaries of this particular constituency.
    It is in Wales and full of sheep, what more information do we need?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,178

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    I trust you've taken your profit already!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Gordon Brown held on to two seats in by elections early in his Premiership, will Boris Johnson be worse than Brown?

    It is impossible to imagine anyone could be worse than Brown.

    Unfortunately, now Johnson is PM we won't have to imagine it, we can just watch.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,128
    The latest poll in electoral calculas gives the conservatives an 80 seat majority !!!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    edited July 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    And not paid the slightest attention to the vagaries of this particular constituency.
    It is in Wales and full of sheep, what more information do we need?
    It isn't full of sheep. There must be a whole fifty acres just outside Rhayader where they farm cattle instead.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    So the trends in the table above are not unexpected.

    Perhaps not, and yet many people have said that this time would be different and that Johnson wouldn't see a bounce.

    I suppose it is different this time in that the bounce enables the Tories to scrape over 30%.

    People looking for what might end the bounce need to remember what motivates the people who have switched support, rather than what motivates the 70% of the country not persuaded by Johnsonian charms. Perhaps a bounce that encompasses such a relatively small slice of the electorate will be more durable?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    And not paid the slightest attention to the vagaries of this particular constituency.
    It is in Wales and full of sheep, what more information do we need?
    It isn't full of sheep. There must be a whole fifty acres just outside Rhayader where they farm cattle instead.
    There's the Red Kite feeding station around there too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103

    The latest poll in electoral calculas gives the conservatives an 80 seat majority !!!!!

    Paging Brenda....
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    FPT

    Recidivist,
    ‘Random observation. I don't know anyone who supports leave who actually has a job.’

    WTAF.

    17.4 million Brits voted Leave. And here’s an apparently sane Pb-er who lives a life so sheltered and snobbish, he or she has managed never to meet one of these voters in gainful employment. What’s more, this Pb-er is actively proud of this parochial stupidity

    This, in a nutshell, is one significant reason remain lost. And might lose again.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    Off-topic:

    This morning I finished my RED month - Run Every Day - for July. I managed to 176 miles run over 31 days.

    Suddenly I'm immensely relaxed about Brexit and the state of the world. ;)
  • eekeek Posts: 21,007
    Anorak said:
    Surely it's Lib Dems + Labour + Green
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    And not paid the slightest attention to the vagaries of this particular constituency.
    It is in Wales and full of sheep, what more information do we need?
    It isn't full of sheep. There must be a whole fifty acres just outside Rhayader where they farm cattle instead.
    There's the Red Kite feeding station around there too.
    Assuming that by kite you mean the bird of prey (and possibly even if you're referring to the recreational activity), that doesn't preclude the area from being full of sheep, since they occupy a part of Cartesian space that sheep tend not to spend much time in.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    eek said:

    Anorak said:
    Surely it's Lib Dems + Labour + Green
    And SNP and PC.
  • Byronic said:

    FPT

    Recidivist,
    ‘Random observation. I don't know anyone who supports leave who actually has a job.’

    WTAF.

    17.4 million Brits voted Leave. And here’s an apparently sane Pb-er who lives a life so sheltered and snobbish, he or she has managed never to meet one of these voters in gainful employment. What’s more, this Pb-er is actively proud of this parochial stupidity

    This, in a nutshell, is one significant reason remain lost. And might lose again.

    That is indeed a crazy statement to make. I don't really know anyone who doesn't have a job (at least by choice) apart from the young offspring of a few friends and and colleagues, and we're told they'd all have voted Remain anyway, so maybe Recid has got it the wrong way around?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313
    Its a very hard seat to call. So nothing is being taken for granted, and the LibDems are gearing up for an early morning delivery from 5am tomorrow to the principal towns and villages.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,178

    Off-topic:

    This morning I finished my RED month - Run Every Day - for July. I managed to 176 miles run over 31 days.

    Suddenly I'm immensely relaxed about Brexit and the state of the world. ;)

    July was a month out from my "give up something every month" thing. However, August is cake and biscuits. Could be tough!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    The average leaver is, in fact, retired.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,239
    Deep thought: Let's imagine for the sake of argument that the EU side get to the middle of October and say, "WE BLINK! Our bluff has been well and truly called! We bow to your superior British determination! We will reopen negotiations to work out how to remove the backstop!"

    Does Boris agree to an extension???
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313
    Byronic said:

    FPT

    Recidivist,
    ‘Random observation. I don't know anyone who supports leave who actually has a job.’

    WTAF.

    17.4 million Brits voted Leave. And here’s an apparently sane Pb-er who lives a life so sheltered and snobbish, he or she has managed never to meet one of these voters in gainful employment. What’s more, this Pb-er is actively proud of this parochial stupidity

    This, in a nutshell, is one significant reason remain lost. And might lose again.

    You’re a rum sort of remainer, I must say.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    IanB2 said:

    Its a very hard seat to call. So nothing is being taken for granted, and the LibDems are gearing up for an early morning delivery from 5am tomorrow to the principal towns and villages.

    @YBarddCwsc and I have been telling you this for weeks if not months.

    It's nice that practical experience means you now finally believe us!

    I admire your gumption in canvassing there. Has anyone refused to speak to you yet on the basis that you come from east of Presteigne?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT

    Recidivist,
    ‘Random observation. I don't know anyone who supports leave who actually has a job.’

    WTAF.

    17.4 million Brits voted Leave. And here’s an apparently sane Pb-er who lives a life so sheltered and snobbish, he or she has managed never to meet one of these voters in gainful employment. What’s more, this Pb-er is actively proud of this parochial stupidity

    This, in a nutshell, is one significant reason remain lost. And might lose again.

    You’re a rum sort of remainer, I must say.
    Byronic is marginally more Remainer than Kate Hoey.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    How big and entrenched does Bozza’s lead have to be, for it to make an election irresistible?

    I reckon a double digit lead for a month would do it.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    eek said:

    Anorak said:
    Surely it's Lib Dems + Labour + Green
    And SNP and PC.
    Feel free to knock up a better chart :)

    I'd maintain the one above is interesting as those are parties with the most churn between them. Adding PC/SNP/Greens would likely just move the red line up wholesale.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,247

    Deep thought: Let's imagine for the sake of argument that the EU side get to the middle of October and say, "WE BLINK! Our bluff has been well and truly called! We bow to your superior British determination! We will reopen negotiations to work out how to remove the backstop!"

    Does Boris agree to an extension???

    Precisely. That was a point Michael Gove made during his campaign. It's an unanswerable point, which demonstrates just how completely brain-dead the Boris 'do or die' commitment is.

    In the half-century I've been following politics, I've never before known a leader of a major party dig himself or herself such a massive and obvious trap. Normally the idea is to try to dig traps for the other side, and hope that they won't notice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313

    Deep thought: Let's imagine for the sake of argument that the EU side get to the middle of October and say, "WE BLINK! Our bluff has been well and truly called! We bow to your superior British determination! We will reopen negotiations to work out how to remove the backstop!"

    Does Boris agree to an extension???

    Precisely. That was a point Michael Gove made during his campaign. It's an unanswerable point, which demonstrates just how completely brain-dead the Boris 'do or die' commitment is.

    In the half-century I've been following politics, I've never before known a leader of a major party dig himself or herself such a massive and obvious trap. Normally the idea is to try to dig traps for the other side, and hope that they won't notice.
    Hence either Bozo is an idiot, or he intends to be stopped all along.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Deep thought: Let's imagine for the sake of argument that the EU side get to the middle of October and say, "WE BLINK! Our bluff has been well and truly called! We bow to your superior British determination! We will reopen negotiations to work out how to remove the backstop!"

    Does Boris agree to an extension???

    Good question. I think Yes. Sadly, it is most unlikely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    edited July 2019

    Deep thought: Let's imagine for the sake of argument that the EU side get to the middle of October and say, "WE BLINK! Our bluff has been well and truly called! We bow to your superior British determination! We will reopen negotiations to work out how to remove the backstop!"

    Does Boris agree to an extension???

    Precisely. That was a point Michael Gove made during his campaign. It's an unanswerable point, which demonstrates just how completely brain-dead the Boris 'do or die' commitment is.

    In the half-century I've been following politics, I've never before known a leader of a major party dig himself or herself such a massive and obvious trap. Normally the idea is to try to dig traps for the other side, and hope that they won't notice.
    Except of course for Sir Menzies Campbell, who famously dug traps for Tony Blair and then walked into them himself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663
    I'm on Con hold at 10/1. It's a bet I want to lose but I'm not that confident I will.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT

    Recidivist,
    ‘Random observation. I don't know anyone who supports leave who actually has a job.’

    WTAF.

    17.4 million Brits voted Leave. And here’s an apparently sane Pb-er who lives a life so sheltered and snobbish, he or she has managed never to meet one of these voters in gainful employment. What’s more, this Pb-er is actively proud of this parochial stupidity

    This, in a nutshell, is one significant reason remain lost. And might lose again.

    You’re a rum sort of remainer, I must say.
    Byronic is marginally more Remainer than Kate Hoey.

    I am only going on what he told us when he joined the site ;)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,247
    IanB2 said:

    Hence either Bozo is an idiot, or he intends to be stopped all along.

    The trouble is that he'll get the hit even if he is stopped by someone else. Farage has already spotted the opportunity, which is why he keeps banging on about this promise and how Boris can't be trusted.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663

    The average leaver is, in fact, retired.

    But not - sadly - from the democratic process.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Deep thought: Let's imagine for the sake of argument that the EU side get to the middle of October and say, "WE BLINK! Our bluff has been well and truly called! We bow to your superior British determination! We will reopen negotiations to work out how to remove the backstop!"

    Does Boris agree to an extension???

    He needs an election before that happens...

    Although even if he was returned with a thumping majority the letters to the '22 might go in on November 1st anyway
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:
    "Warned"!? I'd have thought SF would love to have a border poll.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anorak said:

    "Warned"!? I'd have thought they would love to have a border poll.

    I assume it's BoZo they are warning
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    Scott_P said:

    Anorak said:

    "Warned"!? I'd have thought they would love to have a border poll.

    I assume it's BoZo they are warning
    No, theyd have had their balaclavas on
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    Yes that 26 was nuts. Actually touched 34 at one point - fruit and nuts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313

    IanB2 said:

    Hence either Bozo is an idiot, or he intends to be stopped all along.

    The trouble is that he'll get the hit even if he is stopped by someone else. Farage has already spotted the opportunity, which is why he keeps banging on about this promise and how Boris can't be trusted.
    I’d like to agree, but I am not convinced. If Parliament (the opposition parties plus a small number of Tory remainers) outvote Bozo and his no deal government, I fear he might well be placed quite nicely to reunite the leaver vote and press to a GE. Yes, the 31 October date will have fallen, but he will have plenty of people to blame.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Its a very hard seat to call. So nothing is being taken for granted, and the LibDems are gearing up for an early morning delivery from 5am tomorrow to the principal towns and villages.

    @YBarddCwsc and I have been telling you this for weeks if not months.

    It's nice that practical experience means you now finally believe us!

    I admire your gumption in canvassing there. Has anyone refused to speak to you yet on the basis that you come from east of Presteigne?
    I am back home now - but you are right that things look different when on the ground.

    Any armchair pollsters who think they can work from previous GE results with any sort of standard swing model are kidding themselves and are in denial as to how much the basis of our politics is changing.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,247
    edited July 2019
    What makes the Boris 31st October fetish even more incomprehensible is that he, of all people, should have been able to finesse it. He has the skills in bluster and obfuscation, laced with humour, which would have been perfect for keeping the party faithful on board without actually completely committing. Something along the lines of 'we might have to have a short delay because in August all the Germans will down by the Med putting towels on the deckchairs, and all the Dutch will be holed up eating Edam in camper-vans in the Dordogne' etc etc.

    (And yes I know that the Dutch go off in their camper-vans in July rather than August....)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that while the Tories now lead in all those polls regardless of pollster, the LDs lead Labour in one of them too and are just 1 to 3 points behind Labour in the other Yougov polls.

    Yougov was one of the few pollsters to have the LDs ahead of Labour in the European Parliament elections

    Miserable news for Labour supporters, but not especially great for the Tories. They might have to come up with a campaign that faces a challenge from Labour, the Brexit Party, the nationalists and the Lib Dems simultaneously. They have also been in government for a long time, and boy does it feel like it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    That’s sad, but his Brexit redundancy disaster doesn’t really tally with the UK’s record LOW unemployment (3rd lowest in the EU)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,527

    What makes the Boris 31st October fetish even more incomprehensible is that he, of all people, should have been able to finesse it. He has the skills in bluster and obfuscation, laced with humour, which would have been perfect for keeping the party faithful on board without actually completely committing. Something along the lines of 'we might have to have a short delay because in August all the Germans will down by the Med putting towels on the deckchairs, and all the Dutch will be holed up eating Edam in camper-vans in the Dordogne' etc etc.

    (And yes I know that the Dutch go off in their camper-vans in July rather than August....)

    Exactly - he could even say how incomprehensible it is that the EU take months to sort the new Commission out when the Brits are raring to go. Would have been much smarter unless he really is all about prompting a chaotic GE.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    Byronic said:

    That’s sad, but his Brexit redundancy disaster doesn’t really tally with the UK’s record LOW unemployment (3rd lowest in the EU)
    But it is linked to investment (which has clearly been impacted).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,120

    What makes the Boris 31st October fetish even more incomprehensible is that he, of all people, should have been able to finesse it. He has the skills in bluster and obfuscation, laced with humour, which would have been perfect for keeping the party faithful on board without actually completely committing. Something along the lines of 'we might have to have a short delay because in August all the Germans will down by the Med putting towels on the deckchairs, and all the Dutch will be holed up eating Edam in camper-vans in the Dordogne' etc etc.

    (And yes I know that the Dutch go off in their camper-vans in July rather than August....)

    I think it points to a deep underlying insecurity. Despite the mass of evidence to the contrary, Boris was terrified that the membership would end up rejecting him and everyone would laugh at him and sneer 'I told you so.' The 31 October pledge meant no one could claim he was was as weak and compromising as Theresa or not as strong and resolute as Nigel. Failure for him was unthinkable. He had to close down any vulnerability.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,247
    IanB2 said:

    I am back home now - but you are right that things look different when on the ground.

    Any armchair pollsters who think they can work from previous GE results with any sort of standard swing model are kidding themselves and are in denial as to how much the basis of our politics is changing.

    It's not just that, though - there is also the huge difficulty of assessing how much support Chris Davies will lose personally because of his little contretemps with the law. National polls can't tell you that, and constituency-specific polls are notoriously unreliable even in easier conditions.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    NB 13.0 ≠ 13% !
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    That’s sad, but his Brexit redundancy disaster doesn’t really tally with the UK’s record LOW unemployment (3rd lowest in the EU)
    But it is linked to investment (which has clearly been impacted).
    Sure. Brexit has obviously hit investment. It would be a miracle if it hadn’t. And as a result companies are folding and jobs are disappearing. Sad.

    Nonetheless the British economy is still showing surprising resilience, especially the employment market. And it’s worth noting the eurozone is struggling - Italy near recession, France barely moving - without any experience of Brexit at all.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    What makes the Boris 31st October fetish even more incomprehensible is that he, of all people, should have been able to finesse it. He has the skills in bluster and obfuscation, laced with humour, which would have been perfect for keeping the party faithful on board without actually completely committing. Something along the lines of 'we might have to have a short delay because in August all the Germans will down by the Med putting towels on the deckchairs, and all the Dutch will be holed up eating Edam in camper-vans in the Dordogne' etc etc.

    (And yes I know that the Dutch go off in their camper-vans in July rather than August....)

    I think it points to a deep underlying insecurity. Despite the mass of evidence to the contrary, Boris was terrified that the membership would end up rejecting him and everyone would laugh at him and sneer 'I told you so.' The 31 October pledge meant no one could claim he was was as weak and compromising as Theresa or not as strong and resolute as Nigel. Failure for him was unthinkable. He had to close down any vulnerability.
    Yes. Astute.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Would anybody on PB.com use the facility to ‘influence’ the markets?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hence either Bozo is an idiot, or he intends to be stopped all along.

    The trouble is that he'll get the hit even if he is stopped by someone else. Farage has already spotted the opportunity, which is why he keeps banging on about this promise and how Boris can't be trusted.
    I’d like to agree, but I am not convinced. If Parliament (the opposition parties plus a small number of Tory remainers) outvote Bozo and his no deal government, I fear he might well be placed quite nicely to reunite the leaver vote and press to a GE. Yes, the 31 October date will have fallen, but he will have plenty of people to blame.
    I think Boris saying that it is the EU who must decide on a deal is part of a strategy to extend A50 and come back to the negotiating table. The EU will probably not give Johnson the changes he needs before 31 October 2019 and so he will blame any extension on the EU saying an agreement is within sight and he does not want to disrupt the economy. I do think that Johnson advocating that the "EU will decide" is a sign of weakness for Johnson. Instead of taking back control as the campaign he fronted purported he is reliant on goodwill from competitor nations and has no control!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663
    edited July 2019

    Off-topic:

    This morning I finished my RED month - Run Every Day - for July. I managed to 176 miles run over 31 days.

    Suddenly I'm immensely relaxed about Brexit and the state of the world. ;)

    Average 6 miles a day. That is IMMENSE.

    Reminds me of a question posed somewhere that I found intriguing - if you knew that every hour spent jogging would add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time per day would you spend jogging?

    The answer is obviously limited by your physical capacity. Nobody can run all the time.

    But then - I thought - what if we replace running with something you CAN do pretty much constantly, e.g. firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger.

    So then the question becomes very interesting. If you knew (by way of cast-iron guarantee) that every hour you spent firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger will add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time each day will you devote to this activity?

    The quick and instinctive answer is "every waking minute".

    But would you?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I think Boris saying that it is the EU who must decide on a deal is part of a strategy to extend A50 and come back to the negotiating table. The EU will probably not give Johnson the changes he needs before 31 October 2019 and so he will blame any extension on the EU saying an agreement is within sight and he does not want to disrupt the economy. I do think that Johnson advocating that the "EU will decide" is a sign of weakness for Johnson. Instead of taking back control as the campaign he fronted purported he is reliant on goodwill from competitor nations and has no control!

    There does seem to be an element of tension between "Take Back Control" and "It's up to the EU if we have a deal or not..."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    As an aside, if he was forced to close because he was unable to find investors it means he wasn’t cash flow positive

    That doesn’t mean it’s a bad company, necessarily, but it dies suggest it’s not only about Brexit
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313
    kinabalu said:

    Off-topic:

    This morning I finished my RED month - Run Every Day - for July. I managed to 176 miles run over 31 days.

    Suddenly I'm immensely relaxed about Brexit and the state of the world. ;)

    Average 6 miles a day. That is IMMENSE.

    Reminds me of a question posed somewhere that I found intriguing - if you knew that every hour spent jogging would add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time per day would you spend jogging?

    The answer is obviously limited by your physical capacity. Nobody can run all the time.

    But then - I thought - what if we replace running with something you CAN do pretty much constantly, e.g. firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger.

    So then the question becomes very interesting. If you knew (by way of cast-iron guarantee) that every hour you spent firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger will add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time each day will you devote to this activity?

    The quick and instinctive answer is "every waking minute".

    But would you?
    That depends. The hour is essentially being wasted now in order to be recouped toward the end of your life. There is an opportunity cost to that hour now, when you are fit and healthy, that may not be worth trading for an extra hour sitting in a chair under a blanket?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nichomar said:

    Would anybody on PB.com use the facility to ‘influence’ the markets?

    You'd hope not but invariably that is the outcome, especially as some of the Betfair markets are barely liquid, so there might be just a few pounds available at the headline price.

    There may have been, in the dim and distant past, attempts to influence the reporting of PMQs in favour of the blue team under David Cameron. I have no proof but it was my impression that posters would appear shortly after noon and claim a resounding victory for their man, regardless of whether the referee had actually held his arm aloft or he was spark out, flat on his back, having walked into a great clunking fist.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,101
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Betfair is following my usually magnificent tipping.

    And not paid the slightest attention to the vagaries of this particular constituency.
    It is in Wales and full of sheep, what more information do we need?
    It isn't full of sheep. There must be a whole fifty acres just outside Rhayader where they farm cattle instead.
    Rhayader does of course have the accolade of the most pubs per head of population. 14 pubs for 2000 people, I think.

    That said, I visited a lot of them and would only go back to three: the Triangle, the one behind the cattle market, and the foody half-timbered one on the road to the north. And I’m not entirely sure I’m not mixing that last one up with Llanidloes.

    Back on topic, if the Lib Dems do lose, it’s pretty clearly down to choice of candidate. This is an independent-minded area (as per the fruitcake independents who dominate Powys Council) and selecting the top national party apparatchik seemed like a foolhardy decision from the off.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off-topic:

    This morning I finished my RED month - Run Every Day - for July. I managed to 176 miles run over 31 days.

    Suddenly I'm immensely relaxed about Brexit and the state of the world. ;)

    Average 6 miles a day. That is IMMENSE.

    Reminds me of a question posed somewhere that I found intriguing - if you knew that every hour spent jogging would add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time per day would you spend jogging?

    The answer is obviously limited by your physical capacity. Nobody can run all the time.

    But then - I thought - what if we replace running with something you CAN do pretty much constantly, e.g. firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger.

    So then the question becomes very interesting. If you knew (by way of cast-iron guarantee) that every hour you spent firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger will add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time each day will you devote to this activity?

    The quick and instinctive answer is "every waking minute".

    But would you?
    That depends. The hour is essentially being wasted now in order to be recouped toward the end of your life. There is an opportunity cost to that hour now, when you are fit and healthy, that may not be worth trading for an extra hour sitting in a chair under a blanket?
    +1
    Extreme old age can be a blessing but it can also be painful (arthritis), humiliating (incontinence) and depressing (cannot do the activities you once could due to physical deterioration or lack of cash). The other thing about extreme old age is you might not have any friends or even family left. Not much of a life if you have nobody to talk to or anyone who really cares about you...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    Charles said:

    As an aside, if he was forced to close because he was unable to find investors it means he wasn’t cash flow positive

    That doesn’t mean it’s a bad company, necessarily, but it dies suggest it’s not only about Brexit
    Business decisions are rarely based on one factor alone as I'm sure you know. But Brexit is a massive negative for almost all; businesses and, when added to other negatives, it certainly drives decisions to reduce activity, cancel investments etc etc. Almost all negative corporate announcements cite Brexit as a factor and this will continue to be the case for years, whether or not we leave in October.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,435
    eek said:

    Anorak said:
    Surely it's Lib Dems + Labour + Green
    Can't you just subtract Con+Brexit from 100%?
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    What makes the Boris 31st October fetish even more incomprehensible is that he, of all people, should have been able to finesse it. He has the skills in bluster and obfuscation, laced with humour, which would have been perfect for keeping the party faithful on board without actually completely committing. Something along the lines of 'we might have to have a short delay because in August all the Germans will down by the Med putting towels on the deckchairs, and all the Dutch will be holed up eating Edam in camper-vans in the Dordogne' etc etc.

    (And yes I know that the Dutch go off in their camper-vans in July rather than August....)

    No the Conservatives were in freefall, heading to oblivion. Johnson or another PM candidate showing serious intent about Brexit and fast was the only way out of that dire situation. Even then unless there is some meaningful delivery by the deadline the Conservatives are finished as an election winning force.No bluster would cut it, as we all know the main Remain tactic all along is delay and delay, action and intent was the only way foward for the Conservatives.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,287
    Charles said:

    As an aside, if he was forced to close because he was unable to find investors it means he wasn’t cash flow positive

    That doesn’t mean it’s a bad company, necessarily, but it dies suggest it’s not only about Brexit
    His words "due to a combination of issues" makes that pretty clear.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,435
    Scott_P said:

    I think Boris saying that it is the EU who must decide on a deal is part of a strategy to extend A50 and come back to the negotiating table. The EU will probably not give Johnson the changes he needs before 31 October 2019 and so he will blame any extension on the EU saying an agreement is within sight and he does not want to disrupt the economy. I do think that Johnson advocating that the "EU will decide" is a sign of weakness for Johnson. Instead of taking back control as the campaign he fronted purported he is reliant on goodwill from competitor nations and has no control!

    There does seem to be an element of tension between "Take Back Control" and "It's up to the EU if we have a deal or not..."
    "Take Back Control of Apportioning the Blame."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,261
    Byronic said:

    That’s sad, but his Brexit redundancy disaster doesn’t really tally with the UK’s record LOW unemployment (3rd lowest in the EU)
    We're behind Germany, Malta, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Hungary.

    (Albeit it's all margin of error stuff)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,287
    Scott_P said:

    I think Boris saying that it is the EU who must decide on a deal is part of a strategy to extend A50 and come back to the negotiating table. The EU will probably not give Johnson the changes he needs before 31 October 2019 and so he will blame any extension on the EU saying an agreement is within sight and he does not want to disrupt the economy. I do think that Johnson advocating that the "EU will decide" is a sign of weakness for Johnson. Instead of taking back control as the campaign he fronted purported he is reliant on goodwill from competitor nations and has no control!

    There does seem to be an element of tension between "Take Back Control" and "It's up to the EU if we have a deal or not..."
    The weakest part of the weak position taken by the govt is the surrender to the French in setting our arbitrary exit date. Time for some Boris posters with "Give control of Brexit to the Elysee Palace", perhaps a little Boris in Macrons pocket.

    If we our going to have a silly arbitrary exit date at least have one of our own choosing!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    kinabalu said:

    Off-topic:

    This morning I finished my RED month - Run Every Day - for July. I managed to 176 miles run over 31 days.

    Suddenly I'm immensely relaxed about Brexit and the state of the world. ;)

    Average 6 miles a day. That is IMMENSE.

    Reminds me of a question posed somewhere that I found intriguing - if you knew that every hour spent jogging would add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time per day would you spend jogging?

    The answer is obviously limited by your physical capacity. Nobody can run all the time.

    But then - I thought - what if we replace running with something you CAN do pretty much constantly, e.g. firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger.

    So then the question becomes very interesting. If you knew (by way of cast-iron guarantee) that every hour you spent firmly tapping the end of your nose with your index finger will add 1 hour to your lifespan, how much time each day will you devote to this activity?

    The quick and instinctive answer is "every waking minute".

    But would you?
    That's a great question, but no, because it would get immensely boring.

    As regular readers will be sick of hearing, I once spent a year walking around the coast of Britain. It was 6,200 wonderful miles. At the end, I considered catching a ferry to Norway to walk the entire coast of Europe. A few months later, I had a sort-of offer to walk the coast of Japan, which I refused. I needed to get back to normality, to have different experiences. If I hadn't done that, I wouldn't have met my now-wife, got married, had a kid, and 1001 other major and minor things.

    Life is about the living. If you are constantly walking, or running, or tapping the end of your nose, you're not living. You may get another hour, but you've just spent an hour.

    Which brings me onto another point: when I am too old, frail or ill to wipe my own bottom or blow my own nose, I'm not sure I want to live. If I'm in a long-term coma, let me die with dignity. I love the experiences life gives me, and life without experience is existence, not life.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,313
    Now finally there are signs of a modest bounce in the £
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,067
    Charles said:

    As an aside, if he was forced to close because he was unable to find investors it means he wasn’t cash flow positive

    That doesn’t mean it’s a bad company, necessarily, but it dies suggest it’s not only about Brexit
    I am probably very shallow but I’m not sure I’d be rushing to invest money in a man who misuses the word “economical”.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,247
    macisback said:

    What makes the Boris 31st October fetish even more incomprehensible is that he, of all people, should have been able to finesse it. He has the skills in bluster and obfuscation, laced with humour, which would have been perfect for keeping the party faithful on board without actually completely committing. Something along the lines of 'we might have to have a short delay because in August all the Germans will down by the Med putting towels on the deckchairs, and all the Dutch will be holed up eating Edam in camper-vans in the Dordogne' etc etc.

    (And yes I know that the Dutch go off in their camper-vans in July rather than August....)

    No the Conservatives were in freefall, heading to oblivion. Johnson or another PM candidate showing serious intent about Brexit and fast was the only way out of that dire situation. Even then unless there is some meaningful delivery by the deadline the Conservatives are finished as an election winning force.No bluster would cut it, as we all know the main Remain tactic all along is delay and delay, action and intent was the only way foward for the Conservatives.
    Let's revisit that in mid-November, and see how it's working out...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,435

    The average leaver is, in fact, retired.

    To be fair some of them are more active, but in that case they are usually under physical restraint.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663
    IanB2 said:

    That depends. The hour is essentially being wasted now in order to be recouped toward the end of your life. There is an opportunity cost to that hour now, when you are fit and healthy, that may not be worth trading for an extra hour sitting in a chair under a blanket?

    I agree. There would be a strong age dependency. The older you are the more you would do it.

    At 90, for example, assuming you were still in OK health and enjoying life, you would probably get close to the extreme of every waking minute. Perhaps not at mealtimes (depending on the location and the challenge of the food) but other than that, you'd be doing it.

    Whereas at 19, hardly at all. It would not look cool and as you say the dividend is impossibly distant. Rather like making pension contributions.

    I considered the question for myself - completely seriously, I'm not kidding - and my answer was 3 hours.

    If I knew that every hour spent tapping my nose with my finger brought me an extra hour of life, I would try and do it for at least 3 hours a day.

    Same goes for any other activity of similar ilk.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,067
    What I’m waiting for are the first leaks about the advice Ministers have received about the consequences of a No Deal exit. With all those ex-Ministers on the backbenches, what are the chances ..... ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cyclefree said:

    What I’m waiting for are the first leaks about the advice Ministers have received about the consequences of a No Deal exit. With all those ex-Ministers on the backbenches, what are the chances ..... ?

    https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1156538843388153862
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663
    edited July 2019
    macisback said:

    No the Conservatives were in freefall, heading to oblivion. Johnson or another PM candidate showing serious intent about Brexit and fast was the only way out of that dire situation. Even then unless there is some meaningful delivery by the deadline the Conservatives are finished as an election winning force.No bluster would cut it, as we all know the main Remain tactic all along is delay and delay, action and intent was the only way foward for the Conservatives.

    Nevertheless I think Johnson will, when the crunch comes, agree an extension into 2020. And that although the ultras might scream blue murder they will not bring him down. I don't think this as much as I did a week ago, but I do still just about think it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    That depends. The hour is essentially being wasted now in order to be recouped toward the end of your life. There is an opportunity cost to that hour now, when you are fit and healthy, that may not be worth trading for an extra hour sitting in a chair under a blanket?

    I agree. There would be a strong age dependency. The older you are the more you would do it.

    At 90, for example, assuming you were still in OK health and enjoying life, you would probably get close to the extreme of every waking minute. Perhaps not at mealtimes (depending on the location and the challenge of the food) but other than that, you'd be doing it.

    Whereas at 19, hardly at all. It would not look cool and as you say the dividend is impossibly distant. Rather like making pension contributions.

    I considered the question for myself - completely seriously, I'm not kidding - and my answer was 3 hours.

    If I knew that every hour spent tapping my nose with my finger brought me an extra hour of life, I would try and do it for at least 3 hours a day.

    Same goes for any other activity of similar ilk.
    Waste an hour doing something ridiculous to gain an hour is stupid, if you enjoy running fair enough if you annoy tapping your nose it’s too late anyway
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,648


    That's a great question, but no, because it would get immensely boring.

    Life is about the living. If you are constantly walking, or running, or tapping the end of your nose, you're not living. You may get another hour, but you've just spent an hour.

    Which brings me onto another point: when I am too old, frail or ill to wipe my own bottom or blow my own nose, I'm not sure I want to live. If I'm in a long-term coma, let me die with dignity. I love the experiences life gives me, and life without experience is existence, not life.

    I'm in your camp. I might tap my nose if I had absolutely nothing interesting to do, but otherwise no. Generally, obsessing about length of life is a distraction from enjoying it.

    On the other hand, I'm not too bothered about being frail and dependent, and would like to live forever (or to 100, say) just to see how the world works out.I'm more into following and where possible engaging with world affairs than personal experiences, so being unable to walk, say, wouldn't be as bad as it would for the physically active. Being blind, however...might be another matter.

    Just came back from 4 hours of stroke tests after my recent vertigo (all clear), so had occasion to reflect on this sort of thing.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,648


    Extreme old age can be a blessing but it can also be painful (arthritis), humiliating (incontinence) and depressing (cannot do the activities you once could due to physical deterioration or lack of cash). The other thing about extreme old age is you might not have any friends or even family left. Not much of a life if you have nobody to talk to or anyone who really cares about you...

    Ha, I look forward to arguing on PB!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    macisback said:

    What makes the Boris 31st October fetish even more incomprehensible is that he, of all people, should have been able to finesse it. He has the skills in bluster and obfuscation, laced with humour, which would have been perfect for keeping the party faithful on board without actually completely committing. Something along the lines of 'we might have to have a short delay because in August all the Germans will down by the Med putting towels on the deckchairs, and all the Dutch will be holed up eating Edam in camper-vans in the Dordogne' etc etc.

    (And yes I know that the Dutch go off in their camper-vans in July rather than August....)

    No the Conservatives were in freefall, heading to oblivion. Johnson or another PM candidate showing serious intent about Brexit and fast was the only way out of that dire situation. Even then unless there is some meaningful delivery by the deadline the Conservatives are finished as an election winning force.No bluster would cut it, as we all know the main Remain tactic all along is delay and delay, action and intent was the only way foward for the Conservatives.
    You do realise that the end of TM premiership was as a result of the Brexit supporting media pulling the rug on the Conservative party in the run up to the European Parliament elections? The Conservatives and Labour are much more robust entities than many people realise, especially in FPTP elections. The Brexit supporting media instigated the PM change by giving Farage millions of pounds worth of free advertising through coverage of him and his party to put pressure on TM to resign. The narrative that TBP will replace the Tories is just nonsense used to frighten the Tories into executing Brexit as the Brexit supporting media require.

    Once the Brexit supporting media had got rid of TM, they then helped Johnson in the parliamentary stage of the leadership coverage until the competition was put to the membership. Then, safe in the knowledge that Johnson would win the membership they produced or ran stories like the 'flat argument' and other personal issues from the past. What was the Tory press and now called by some the Brexit supporting media does have significant influence over people, particularly the Tory membership and it is this that drives Brexit supporting people. If the Brexit supporting media turns the pro Brexit propaganda off then the issue will become marginalised as will TBP...


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292


    That's a great question, but no, because it would get immensely boring.

    Life is about the living. If you are constantly walking, or running, or tapping the end of your nose, you're not living. You may get another hour, but you've just spent an hour.

    Which brings me onto another point: when I am too old, frail or ill to wipe my own bottom or blow my own nose, I'm not sure I want to live. If I'm in a long-term coma, let me die with dignity. I love the experiences life gives me, and life without experience is existence, not life.

    I'm in your camp. I might tap my nose if I had absolutely nothing interesting to do, but otherwise no. Generally, obsessing about length of life is a distraction from enjoying it.

    On the other hand, I'm not too bothered about being frail and dependent, and would like to live forever (or to 100, say) just to see how the world works out.I'm more into following and where possible engaging with world affairs than personal experiences, so being unable to walk, say, wouldn't be as bad as it would for the physically active. Being blind, however...might be another matter.

    Just came back from 4 hours of stroke tests after my recent vertigo (all clear), so had occasion to reflect on this sort of thing.
    I know you and I have our disagreements Nick, but I'm glad to hear you're okay, and hope they get to the bottom of whatever happened.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,067


    That's a great question, but no, because it would get immensely boring.

    Life is about the living. If you are constantly walking, or running, or tapping the end of your nose, you're not living. You may get another hour, but you've just spent an hour.

    Which brings me onto another point: when I am too old, frail or ill to wipe my own bottom or blow my own nose, I'm not sure I want to live. If I'm in a long-term coma, let me die with dignity. I love the experiences life gives me, and life without experience is existence, not life.

    I'm in your camp. I might tap my nose if I had absolutely nothing interesting to do, but otherwise no. Generally, obsessing about length of life is a distraction from enjoying it.

    On the other hand, I'm not too bothered about being frail and dependent, and would like to live forever (or to 100, say) just to see how the world works out.I'm more into following and where possible engaging with world affairs than personal experiences, so being unable to walk, say, wouldn't be as bad as it would for the physically active. Being blind, however...might be another matter.

    Just came back from 4 hours of stroke tests after my recent vertigo (all clear), so had occasion to reflect on this sort of thing.
    Pleased to hear that the tests went well.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,033
    Scott_P said:
    Here's the expectation management.

    But LDs will still win comfortably.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663

    That's a great question, but no, because it would get immensely boring.

    As regular readers will be sick of hearing, I once spent a year walking around the coast of Britain. It was 6,200 wonderful miles. At the end, I considered catching a ferry to Norway to walk the entire coast of Europe. A few months later, I had a sort-of offer to walk the coast of Japan, which I refused. I needed to get back to normality, to have different experiences. If I hadn't done that, I wouldn't have met my now-wife, got married, had a kid, and 1001 other major and minor things.

    Life is about the living. If you are constantly walking, or running, or tapping the end of your nose, you're not living. You may get another hour, but you've just spent an hour.

    Which brings me onto another point: when I am too old, frail or ill to wipe my own bottom or blow my own nose, I'm not sure I want to live. If I'm in a long-term coma, let me die with dignity. I love the experiences life gives me, and life without experience is existence, not life.

    That sounds like a fantastic thing to do.

    Last para. Most people feel that, I think. I certainly do. But I bet the feeling often changes as The End approaches. Much probably depends on one's belief as to what it was all about.

    On the nose tapping, though, if it really was the silver bullet, I reckon people would soon become adept at doing it at the same time as they are doing other things.

    Because there is not much that you cannot do while you tap your nose, when you think about it, is there? All I can think of in that category is eating with a knife and fork.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,067


    Extreme old age can be a blessing but it can also be painful (arthritis), humiliating (incontinence) and depressing (cannot do the activities you once could due to physical deterioration or lack of cash). The other thing about extreme old age is you might not have any friends or even family left. Not much of a life if you have nobody to talk to or anyone who really cares about you...

    Ha, I look forward to arguing on PB!
    So do I!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979


    Extreme old age can be a blessing but it can also be painful (arthritis), humiliating (incontinence) and depressing (cannot do the activities you once could due to physical deterioration or lack of cash). The other thing about extreme old age is you might not have any friends or even family left. Not much of a life if you have nobody to talk to or anyone who really cares about you...

    Ha, I look forward to arguing on PB!
    Good for you! (maybe all of us)

    Sorry, to hear about your health travails, hope it resolves itself. I have a very old relative that keeps having funny turns like that, although, like you the stroke tests come back as negative. I think they said it might be a sudden drop in blood pressure in their case but as you will know every persons condition is different.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    Cyclefree said:


    That's a great question, but no, because it would get immensely boring.

    Life is about the living. If you are constantly walking, or running, or tapping the end of your nose, you're not living. You may get another hour, but you've just spent an hour.

    Which brings me onto another point: when I am too old, frail or ill to wipe my own bottom or blow my own nose, I'm not sure I want to live. If I'm in a long-term coma, let me die with dignity. I love the experiences life gives me, and life without experience is existence, not life.

    I'm in your camp. I might tap my nose if I had absolutely nothing interesting to do, but otherwise no. Generally, obsessing about length of life is a distraction from enjoying it.

    On the other hand, I'm not too bothered about being frail and dependent, and would like to live forever (or to 100, say) just to see how the world works out.I'm more into following and where possible engaging with world affairs than personal experiences, so being unable to walk, say, wouldn't be as bad as it would for the physically active. Being blind, however...might be another matter.

    Just came back from 4 hours of stroke tests after my recent vertigo (all clear), so had occasion to reflect on this sort of thing.
    Pleased to hear that the tests went well.
    Likewise. Good news.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 671
    Re Lewis Goodall. Presumably you could also write, "spoke to some Cons earlier thisa week who are nervous". "spoke to some Labour folk earlier this week and they are worried could lose deposit and how that would look". Frankly these sort of media comments shoulod be totally disregarded, nobody knows, a close result has always been expected and nobody is going to say they are winning for fear of complacency amongst their potential flock.,
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Wildly off topic but.... wow. So awful. WARNING: it’s distressing

    https://twitter.com/sifill_ldf/status/1156566116795375619?s=21
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1156569317292609536

    Can't for the life of me see why it has gone so wrong for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.
This discussion has been closed.